Saturday 18 July 2015

Modi’s Central Asia Visit: A New Diplomatic Paradigm


Modi’s 8-day whirl wind tour to five central Asian countries (CARs) that included a high octane dialogue with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, participation in the BRICS Summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has been the most power packed foreign trip of the Prime Minister so far. However, the crucial economic gains and bilateral cooperation treaties inked with the five CAR’s failed to draw enough media attention and coverage vis- a- vis Modi’s engagement with his Pakistani Counterpart. Ambitiously christened as Look North tour, Modi’s focus has been to foster cooperation with these resource rich nations to enhance strategic, economic and energy ties.

Modi commenced his tour with Uzbekistan and Kazakasthan, and then left for Ufa, the capital city of Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia where Modi had talks with Russian President Putin, met President Rouhani of Iran, reached out to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, addressed BRICS meet and participated in SCO. During the final leg of the tour he visited Turkmenistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan. Modi is the only Indian Prime Minister who visited all the five “Stans” as they are popularly referred to, during a single trip. These landlocked resource rich nations share cultural, historical and religious links with India. Unfortunately earlier Indian leaders failed to forge bilateral ties with these nations since their disassociation from the Soviet Union in 1991. The key focus of the NDA government has been to effectively enhance the economic interests of the country with adroit foreign policy stratagem.

At the first stopover in Uzbekistan, both leaders discussed ways to enhance defence, economic and trading ties and shared concerns over the growing influence of extremism and terrorism. Modi paid visit to Monument of Independence and Humanism and Memorial of the Late Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Sastry at Tashkent. Agreements were reached on the issues of Counter terrorism and to bring about coordination between the law-enforcement agencies and special services of both nations under the framework of Joint Working Group on Counter- terrorism. Uzbekistan nurtures Hindi language and Modi met the contingent of the resident Indologists there. Prime Minister sought Uzbekistan’s support to India for joining the Ashgabat Agreement a transit pact established in 2011 by Iran, Oman, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Such an inclusion can boost India’s chances of massively improving its connectivity with Central Asia.

In Kazakhstan Modi was extended a very warm welcome. India inked five agreements with Kazakhstan on defence, railways, cultural exchanges, capacity building and Uranium supply. Kazakhstan is one of the biggest producers of Uranium and accounts for 38% of World production. Between 2009 and 2014 India obtained 2100 metric tonnes of Uranium. With the extension of new deal on civil nuclear cooperation that spans from 2015-2019 India can get 5000 metric tonnes of Uranium. Thus all the nuclear reactors which are shut for the unavailability of fuel will be back in action. Both countries have issued a joint statement titled Tej Kadam which broached on the possibility of transporting oil and natural gas through pipelines from Kazakhstan to India and also stressing the need for new UN reforms on the eve of its 70th anniversary. Kazakhstan has also supported India’s candidature for a permanent seat at UN Security Council. Both sides agreed on increased collaboration in the framework of International North South Corridor (INSTC). INSTC was established in 2000 by India, Russia and Iran to increase the rail, road and water connectivity between India, Iran, Russia, Europe and Central Asian Countries. Later ten more countries in Eurasia and Oman joined as members as this project proposes to cut down the transportation costs to Central Asia by 30%. Currently two trails are conducted on this route which connects Mumbai to Bandar Abbas port and subsequently Bandar-e-Anzali in Iran to Astrakhan in Russia and finally to Central Asia. India is also working on leasing the Chabahar port in Iran to develop another transit corridor which links Iran, Oman and Central Asia. India is steadfastly looking for the North-South corridor as Pakistan has comprehensively posed a great barrier to India’s access to Central Asia.

The issue of connectivity has been greatest encumbrance for India to strengthen its trading ties with Central Asia. India’s shortest route to Central Asia is through Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar. But despite fervent appeals from India, Afghanistan and US, Pakistan refused to grant overland transit facilities to India. Tajikistan is just 20km away from the border of greater Kashmir, but with denial of access to the traditional route movement of goods across the border has become a humongous task. In his address at Nazarbayev University Modi hoped that Pakistan would relent.

In Turkmenistan Prime Minister unveiled a bust of Mahatma Gandhi and inaugurated a Traditional Medicine and Yoga Centre. In a joint statement both nations agreed to step up efforts against cross-border threats, terrorism and illegal drug-trafficking and agreed to enhance bilateral trade, investment and economic cooperation. Modi pitched for the quicker implementation of $ 10 billion, 1800 kilometre long TAPI (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan and India) gas pipeline which will deliver 3.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per annum to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of Oil and natural gas. While the project TAPI was conceived two decades ago, its progress is severely doubted as it passes through worst conflict ridden areas in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While reinforcing that the gas line could potentially transform the economic prosperity of the region, Modi stressed on the feasibility of exploring multiple options like land-sea route through Iran for its quick implementation. Interestingly, Pakistan which has been reluctant to foster transborder economic cooperation persisted with this project. Perhaps this project might turn out to be an exception wherein India and Pakistan might join hands together. Turkmenistan which is largely dependent on its gas exports is also keen on the project as well. The two sides have signed seven pacts including one on defence cooperation. Modi even proposed the establishment of an agriculture research institute and a urea production facility in Turkmenistan.

India and Kyrgyzstan share common interests of combating extremism and terrorism. Special Forces of both countries held a joint exercise in March titled Khanzar 2015 and during the current visit the spheres of defence cooperation is broadened. Four agreements are signed which included cooperation between election commissions, cooperation between Bureau of Standards and in culture. Kyrgyzstan has recently joined Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union. It promised to work towards conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement between Eurasia Economic Union and India. India in turn has offered to share its experience on agro-processing, tele-medicine, green house technology, water conservation and agriculture research.

In his penultimate stop at Tajikistan, Modi invoked the deep historical, cultural and linguistic connect between the two countries. India has its lone foreign airbase at Ayni near the capital city of Dushnabe which was refurbished in 2007. But India couldn’t base its helicopters as Tajikistan under Russian pressure denied access. India had high hopes of having its foot print in the Central Asia with this military outpost. Modi however visited military hospital built by India at Tajik airbase of Farkhor. Both the countries resolved to intensify cooperation in counter terrorism and in various spheres of defence. Larger part of Indian agenda was to realise full potential of economic and trade and commerce. Accordingly, both sides constituted a joint commission to chalk out a concrete plan for expanding joint ventures and investments. Two sides inked agreements on culture and human resource development. Modi proposed inclusion of India in the existing Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Trilateral Transit Trade Agreement (PATTTTA), an arrangement aimed at facilitating trade between South Asian countries and Tajikistan. Further leaders agreed for deepening cooperation in fields of agriculture, tourism, health, tele-medicine, food processing, mining, pharmaceuticals, textiles, skill development. Tajikistan leadership sought for greater Indian engagement in hydroelectric power generation.

Prime Minister Modi’s back to back visit to geographically contiguous Central Asian Republics is a perspicacious decision. These nations have been under the Russian hegemony till 1991 and eventually harboured good will towards India. These land-locked countries, in the back yard of Russia, deprived of a robust connectivity networks and laundering under poor nation building process are still largely dependent on its past master. Despite their willingness to carve a unique niche they are unable to break out from the strangulating hold of Russia. China in its immediate vicinity in the meanwhile is making deeper in roads into these countries and trying to draw the much needed lifeline, Oil and natural gas. But CARs are wary of its growing economic clout, aggressive expansionism. They are now looking forward to India to play a strategic role in this region. Unfortunately India with its historical, cultural and religious links in the past 25 years failed to establish strong relationships with CARs. With the emergence and spread of ISIS in the west Asia, impending threats of extremism and terrorism have become common cause of concern for India and CARs. Modi in his diplomatic engagement with CARs raised this issue and sought cooperation for counter terror technology and counter radicalism. Moreover, engaging with countries that share common border with Afghanistan would help India to safe guard its own strategic interests at a time when India efforts in rebuilding Afghanistan have been overridden by China-Pakistan duo. Besides, by engaging with resource-rich CARs India can bolster its economic prospects. As CARs can provide the needed raw material (energy supplies) and can acts as markets for Indian goods. Modi during his bilateral talks with all the leaders garnered support for India’s candidature as a permanent member to the UN Security Council. Above all, to counter the towering influence of China and to bolster India’s presence in the global arena engaging with CARs is inevitable.
 
 @ Copyrights reserved.

No comments: