Indo-French 'Republic' Bonhomie

Endorsing India’s invitation to be guest of honor at 67^th Republic Day Parade, France President Francois Hollande was on a three-day State visit to India. At a time when both India and France are bracing the scourge of terrorism, there is a growing need to reinvigorate the “special and strategic partnership” institutionalized in 1998 by Jacques Chirac on his visit to India. The Indo-France relations dated back to medieval ages endeared the trials and tribulations of colonial ages, gradually culminated into a realm where France’s voting patterns at UN Security Council made it an all-weather friend of India. France is one of the few nations which hasn’t condemned India’s nuclear tests in 1998 and consistently supported India’s candidature for an extended UNSC and to G8 nations grouping. A study of India’s Strategic Partners: A Comparative Assessment conducted by the Foundation for the National Security Research, New Delhi in 2011 listed Russia as India’s top most strategic partner followed by US, France, UK, Germany and Japan. France was the first country with which India entered into Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement following a clean waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in January 2008. France has been major defence supplier. India’s major strategic acquisitions from France includes Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter aircrafts, Scorpene class submarines.

Over the past two decades, there has been substantial diplomatic upsurge in Indo-France relationships with top leaders from both countries engaging in official and state visits. Hollande was on his second bilateral visit to India to attend the Republic Day Parade. France is the only country to be bestowed with an unprecedented diplomatic esteem of being invited five times for the highest ceremonial event of the country. French reciprocated the honor by sending its 35^th Infantry Regiment that fought in Iraq and Afghanistan to march on the Rajpath at the Republic Day parade-the first ever foreign troops to march at Republic Day Parade since 1950. With French troops marching down the India Gate curtains are drawn over India’s military isolationism.  In fact concerted efforts of Modi in showcasing the potential of Indian military and enhancing military cooperation too bore fruit. In 2009, recognizing the invaluable contribution of Indian Army at World War I and II France invited troops for the Bastille Day Parade wherein Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh was the guest of hour. Thus, a 400-member strong Indian for the first time participated in another country’s national parade.

In line with the efforts of earlier French Presidents to evolve a valuable strategic partnership with India, Hollande’s three day visit to India delved on consolidating defence and civil nuclear cooperation and expanding partnership in areas of smart city development, trade, solar energy, counter-terrorism, make in India initiative and infrastructure development. President Hollande unveiled India trip by landing directly at Chandigarh, a city designed by Swiss-French Architect, Le Corbusier and one of the three cities in the list of smart city development project collaborated with France. Other two cities in the list are Pondicherry, a former French colony and Nagpur. Modi extended a warm welcome to Hollande at the Chandigarh airport and both leaders after a brief visit to Rock Garden addressed the CEO forum and underscoring the impending need for an enhanced strategic partnership to fight terror. Drawing parallels to Mumbai attacks, Modi vehemently proscribed Paris attacks and in the joint statement both leaders called upon the World to seek action against Pakistani outfits Laskhar-e-Taiba, Haqqani Network, Al Qaeda, Hijab-ul-Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed and urged Pakistan to bring the perpetrators of Mumbai, Gurdaspur and Pathankot attacks to justice. Speaking at Chandigarh, Modi informed that the day Paris was attacked, he decided to invite Hollande as guest of honor at Republic Day parade to express Indian solidarity “in the fight against enemies of humanity”.

The joint statement reiterated the need for urgent reforms in the UNSC and appealed for expansion of the Security Council to increase representation of the contemporary world. France reaffirmed its support to India’s candidature. France agreed to support India’s accession to the multilateral export control regimes like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), NSG, Fissile Material Control Regime (FMCR), the Australian Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement. Both countries have agreed to intensify cooperation on counter-terrorism and expand it to areas of cyber security and intelligence sharing to crack the terror networks. France welcomed India’s decision of ratifying the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage. Translating the vision of shared commitment towards climate change, wherein leaders- Modi and Hollande jointly launched the ISA at COP-21 on November 30^th France announced 2 billion Euros for the development of renewable energies. In a most befitting symbol for commitment towards renewable energy both leaders opted for a metro ride to lay foundation stone for the interim secretariat of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) at Gurgoan. ISA is an alliance of 121 tropical and subtropical nations created to harness the Solar potential at the COP-21 meet. India is initially investing $30 billion and aims to raise $400 billion from the member countries and other international agencies.

At the CEO forum, Modi focused his attention on reflecting India’s quest for a sustained economic development, reiterated its potential as a source of labor and market for French products. In a move to boost the bilateral trade worth Euro 8.6 billion both leaders met business leaders from India and France. Despite contrasting ideological moorings both leaders have fervently pushed ahead their economic agendas. France, currently reeling under the burden of spiraling unemployment and stuttering economic growth intends to fast-track its economy by investing in potentially emerging markets like India. Coincidentally, India having allocated $150 billion for modernization of its military is intent on forging partnership with technology superpower. With France heading for Presidential elections in 2017, Hollande is keen on steering the economy by expanding its investments in India. Thus, a strategic and reliable partnership between these nations is more meaningful now than ever.

Besides, the most anticipated Inter Governmental Agreement (IGA) on Rafale fighters several agreements were signed between India and France. Prime Minister Modi on his bilateral visit to France in April 2015 bypassing the usual procurement process in lieu of “critical operational necessity” spear-headed government to government agreement for acquisition of 36 Rafale Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) fighters in fly-away condition. Both the countries are keen on finalizing the deal with France expected to gain much needed 10 to 12 billion Euros. Barring few financial glitches over price bargaining the Rafale deal is close to completion. In all 14 agreement signed, renewed emphasis was laid on expanding space cooperation. Accordingly, ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) and its counterpart CNES (National Centre for Space Studies) will work together in the next Mars Mission, in hosting the Argos-4 payload onboard India’s Oceanstat-3 satellite and to work on joint Thermal Infrared Earth Observation Mission. France announced an investment of $10 billion over a period of next five years towards India’s industrial sector. Under the Make in India initiative French industrial giant Alstom will make 800 horse power locomotives at electric locomotive company in Madhepur, Bihar. The existing Delhi-Chandigarh line will be upgraded to 200kmph, in line with smart city development mission with France. A declaration was made to celebrate Namaste France (India Festival) in 2016 and Bonjour India (France festival) in 2017. An agreement was also signed between Airbus group and Mahindra to manufacture helicopters in India. A joint venture worth 155 million Euros was signed between Indian SITAC group and EDF Energie Nouvelles to generate 142MW renewable energy and one gigawatts wind energy in Gujarat in five years. Both countries also agreed to renew agreement on defence cooperation signed in 2006 for ten years. It is also agreed to speed up negotiations on the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project in 2016 and gear up for its implementation by 2017. A revised MoU was signed between the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited and French Firm EDF for construction of six EPRs (European Pressurized Reactor) at Jaitapur.

Finally Hollande wrapped up three day long state visit to India by attending the Republic Day Parade followed by a special luncheon at Mumbai attended by various politicians, businessmen and artistes. In the past 20 months of his tenure as Prime Minister, Modi has relentless worked to revive India’s engagement with all the major powers of the World. In the present scenario of multi-polarity, countries are drawn into the ambit of various power fulcrums. China with its vast maritime, military presence and economic clout has been championing for a dominant role in the contemporary World. On the other hand, the US having wooed the Western World is rearing to extend its foot print across the globe. India can best evade the danger of being drawn into any of these groups by consolidating its special and strategic partnership with France. Moreover, France always favored India on several occasions. Further, Post 13/11, France’s own traumatizing experiences and its narrative of war on terrorism are congruent with the Modi’s untiring appeals for global action against terrorism.

Iran Nuclear Deal: Indian Opportunity

Much to the chagrin of seasoned American politicians and its Middle East ally Saudi Arabia, sanctions were lifted on Iran on implementation day, Jan 16^th in a ceremony at Vienna. The long standing Vienna talks included the permanent five plus Germany and the EU agreed on the final Iran Nuclear deal frame work or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015. Iran set a stage for dismantling its nuclear program, in exchange for decreased economic sanctions. It shipped out 98% of stockpile, 25,000 pounds of low- enriched Uranium (used to make Plutonium) to Russia on 25th December 2015, removed two-thirds of centrifuges and deactivated heavy water reactor at Arak on Jan 11^th. Iran has agreed not to build heavy- water reactors for the next 15 years and would enrich upto 3.67% of Uranium. Initial inspections by the UN nuclear watch dog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified Iran has fulfilled its commitments and recommended lifting of sanctions. At the time of signing pact, it was predicted that Iran might take at least nine months to concede to conditions ear marked under first stage of agreement. With Iran headed for parliamentary elections on 26^th February Iranian authorities displayed astounding alacrity for the suspension of international sanctions and for the economic benefits to roll in.

As started swiftly sailing towards a rosy end, capture of 10 American sailors by IRGC who unintentionally waded into Iranian waters threatened to inflame tensions. Prompt release of sailors the following day ensured a hassle-free implementation day. In a conciliatory move, both countries swapped prisoners marking a new dawn.

The entire saga of Iranian nuclear deal was met with stringent opposition from the US congress. In his state-of-the-Union address Obama hailed the Iranian Nuclear Accord as an outcome of “smarter approach” based on “patient and disciplined strategy”, despite divergent views hitting the newsstands. In return for suspension of sanctions Iran was expected to ratify an Additional Protocol of its safeguards to be approved by its Parliament (Majilis) allowing the officials of IAEA to access the plausible sites of nuclear facilities other than those notified by Tehran. Iranian President Hassan Rohani and his US educated foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif were keen on voluntarily renouncing nuclear ambitions in exchange for unrestrained global financial engagement to give a major fillip to its ailing economy. But Islamic hardliners like Ali Khamenei wary of threats to Iran from nuclear power countries stiffly opposed such a move.  With an eye on winning popular mandate, Rohani intends to trumpet his astute diplomatic skills that enabled annulment of nuclear sanctions that can facilitate rapid economic progress. He will urge the electorate to vote back moderates to power and weaken the Islamic hardliners.  The West still has its own doubts about the transparency of Iran’s nuclear revelations with US still believing existence of a parallel clandestine military nuclear program. But with international community reserving the right to conduct periodically raid, such undue fears can be transgressed for time being.

Meanwhile, IRGC in October 2015, to thwart nuclear deal test fired precision-guided ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear war inviting fresh round of sanctions from US over Iran’s missile program. While the objectives of the deal have been successfully enforced as of now, adherence to the conditions on long term would depend on new American President.

Several Iranian nationalists largely contend the new dawn for Iran envisaged by the West. They argue that despite Iran conforming to the regulations under Iranian Nuclear Accord, US wouldn’t hesitate to cast aspersions on Iran as an aggressive Islamic Republic and an axis of evil. The group questioned US bigotry in being hand in glove with Israel, the principle destabilizer of Middle East, a non-signatory of NPT (Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty), and currently in possession of sophisticated arsenal but forcing Iran to forgo its nuclear options. They lashed at the partisan policy of US in subjecting Iran to the tyranny of sanctions while Saudi Arabia, the hub of Wahhabism was scot-free. Incidentally ever since imposition of UN nuclear sanctions in 2006 and subsequent economic isolation of Iran, Islamic fundamentalism manifest in form of IS unleashed reign of terror in Middle East and other parts of the World.

Brief US-Iranian History

Iran shares a huge border with Russia and acted pivot for the US Middle East foreign policy till 1979. In 1953 CIA with MI-16 organized a coup, Operation Ajax, to overthrow democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq who wanted to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil Company (AIOC). Post-coup US remained Iran’s one of closet ally by extending emergency financial aid till the fall of pro-American Shah of Iran era in 1979. Shah was replaced by anti-American Ayatollah Ruhalloh Khomeini, who described US as the Great Satan for allowing the Shah of Iran to enter US.  Angered student revolutionaries held 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days in US embassy at Tehran. Thus hostilities between the countries escalated. In fact US under Atoms for Peace program provided assistance to Iran for development of nuclear technology. Iran signed NPT in 1968 and ratified as non-nuclear state in 1970. Following the Iranian Revolution in 1979, US broke away with Iran. In 1980’s Iran sought Pakistan’s help to rebuild its nuclear program.

Implementation day marked the end of 36 yearlong economic isolation of Iran. US first imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979 when hostages were held in US embassy in Tehran and blocked Iranian assets worth $12 billion in US overseas banks and imposed embargoes on trade. Assets were released and sanctions on trade were lifted following Algiers accord in 1981. US extended logistical military support to Iraq in Iran-Iraq wars and pursued sanctions against Iran while it removed Saddam Hussein’s government from the US list of State Sponsors of Terror in 1984. US government authorized sale of poisonous chemicals and deadly viruses to Iraq. In 1987 US levied trade embargo on charges of abetting international terrorism through Shiite Islamic Organization, Hezbollah and “non-belligerent shipping in Persian Gulf”. US organized Operation Praying Mantis on Iran in 1988. In 1995 US imposed a ban on involvement in Petroleum development in Iran and extended to all trade and investment activities in 1997. In 2010, US passed Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act under which food stuffs, carpets and any Iranian goods and services worth more than $100 couldn’t be imported. In 2011, sanctions were further tightened and extended to financial and technological support to Iranian companies. In 2006 UN imposed sanctions in response to the proliferation of nuclear and ballistic missile programs banning export or procurement of arms and related material from Iran. EU in 2012, announced ban on import of Iranian crude oil & petroleum products and froze assets of Iranian Central Bank in EU.

In 2003, prior to Iraq war and later in 2007 President Ahamadinejad of Iran proposed a grand bargain to resolve outstanding issues between both the countries. But US dismissed it as a ploy and publicity stunt. US contended that Iran was aiding the Iraqi insurgents with weapons and explosives and that Iran’s Quds force is training the Shiite Militants.

Consequences

Iran has been reeling under the burden of sanctions imposed by UN, EU and US. As of now only US nuclear sanctions are lifted but sanctions pertaining to abetting terrorism and human rights abuses remain. The most potential of the sanctions include restrictions on doing business with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that control major part of Iranian economy. Now Iran’s oil, gas and banking sectors can resume international operations. This essentially implies that Iranian Oil revenues which were frozen in the international banks might be released. Though the real numbers are not yet clear, initial estimates indicate that $100 billion might be pumped into Iranian economy, US Treasury indicates it is $50 billion and Iranian estimates puts it around $29 billion.

With lifting of nuclear sanctions Iranian economic growth is expected to surge to 5% from 3% and world markets will now have one more million barrels oil per day plunging the oil prices further. Sources indicate that Iran plans to offer discounts on oil prices triggering a price war with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s revenue from oil exports can increase by $10 billion and it can save $15 billion annually in cheaper trade. Interestingly, while Asian and European companies can trade with Iran, US firms and American nationals are barred. Incidentally limited cooperation between US and Iran has started in 2015 to fight IS. Iran is only country in the Middle East that vehemently condones Islamic State. Despite the rising clamor of paradoxes, Iran unlike its neighbors endowed with robust political system offers a ray of hope where hardline theocrats have few takers. US by toppling the Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq not only destabilized Middle East and rendered Saudi Arabia powerless since Iraq was lost to Shiite rule, but expedited aggressive rise of IS. Presently, Middle East is whacky with Saudi Arabia snapping diplomatic relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia threatened by resurgent Iran constituted a regional alliance against terrorism roping in Sunni States. Amidst tragic consequences, Iran emerged as a strategic winner earning international acceptance, through voluntary abdication of military nuclear options.

A new regional dynamic is envisioned with President Xi Jingping scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran next week. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif accompanied by Army Chief Raheel Sharif paid an impromptu visit to Riyadh and Tehran to balance its relations between immediate neighbor and financial benefactor. Clearly Iran is now regarded as a key player in the Middle East geopolitics.

Indian Opportunity

Iran being reinstated into the realm of Middle East regional framework, Modi government must seize every opportunity to rejuvenate diplomatic and commercial ties. Iran is India’s largest supplier of crude oil. India maintained trade relations with Iran despite the economic sanctions and with lifting of curbs, it is going to be a mixed for India on trade front. India followed a rupee based payment system to evade US sanctions that banned Iran from making purchases in dollars. India bought crude oil from Iran by depositing the payment in Indian banks and Iran expended the same money to buy commodities from Indian markets. With restrictions lifted, Iran’s choices are not constrained. While Indian companies can invest in Iranian infrastructure projects which are in need of a major revamp they have to compete with foreign firms. The proposed India-Iran oil pipeline can now be a reality. India owes $6.5 billion to Iran which is frozen for some years, can now be remitted and infused into commercial projects. Iran has the second largest gas reserves. India can collaborate with Iran in enhancing its refining capacity.

Iran is of immense strategic significance to India and a gateway to Central Asia. NDA I evinced great interest in Iran’s Chabahar port, 70 km away Gwadar port of Pakistan with a strategic potential of enhancing India’s maritime presence in Arabian Sea and Straits of Hormuz. With Islamabad blocking India’s access to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia through its territory, India is looking for an alternate link that bypasses Pakistan. India has already invested in construction of Delaram-Zaranj road link in Afghanistan that can extend to northern Iran. Building robust network of rail and road connections linking Chabahar port in Iran can augur India’s connectivity to land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia. With Modi government pitching for popularization of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) for strengthening commercial ties with Central Asia, Russia and Iran India is now keen on investing in infrastructure development of Chabahar port. India needs Iran’s cooperation in controlling volatile Baluchistan movement. Indeed with West largely endorsing the nuclear program of Iran, it may even consider shifting base from Pakistan to Iran. Beyond the rhetoric of soft diplomacy and oil ties India has to deftly maneuver its relations with countries in the Middle East with Israel is bitterly opposing India partnership with Iran. India can ill afford to ignore Saudi Arabia, largest supplier of oil and its allies, for Modi is keen on tapping sovereign wealth fund of Gulf countries.

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India’s Energy Needs: Quest for Renewable Sources

As per the latest IMF predictions India is now currently the fastest growing economies of the World and is poised to retain the newly acquired status outpacing China.  A renewed boost to the growth progression following the implementation of a new set of chartered strategies like faster clearance of projects, better infrastructure, promoting ease of doing business offers a promise of sustained economic activity. Rapid economic growth, better standard of living and increased manufacturing activity will subsequently increase energy requirements. Currently India is the world’s third largest energy consuming economy after China and US is largely an energy deficit. Burgeoning energy needs has brought the issue of energy security to the forefront. So far the primary sources of energy consumption in India are Coal, Oil and natural gas accounting for more than 90%. Currently India consumes around 4.4% of World’s energy resources. Fossil fuels account for 70% of India’s electricity generation of which 78% of India’s petroleum and 25% of natural gas consumption is met by imports. It is estimated that the import dependency is bound to increase to 90% by 2030. The burgeoning energy demands and the limited fossil fuel reserves has significant implications on the financial health of the country. Prolonged unrest and political upheavals in the Middle East, volatile oil prices has raised the stakes further. India’s Oil and natural gas industry thus far failed to make substantial impact in easing domestic energy deficit due to a variety of reasons. Since the inception of the New Exploration License Policy (NELP) in 1999, 60 discoveries were made of which 51 were gas discoveries but merely two entered production phase.

Government of India in a bid to make the country energy reliant has unveiled an ambitious plan that aims to augment electricity generation from the renewable sources which besides being environmentally compliant can significantly alleviate India’s dependency on oil imports. As of March 2015, 7% of the electricity produced in India comes from renewable energy sources. (GOI, CEA Statistics). Under the agenda of stepping up renewable energy capacity by 2020, inaugurated by Piyush Goyal, India has set a target of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy. This includes 100 GW Solar Energy, 60 GW of Wind Energy, 10 GW of Small hydro power and 5 GW of bio-mass based power. Being the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases after US and China, India was under scanner to elucidate its initiatives towards shared global responsibility. India has pledged to improve emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% by 2030 below 2005 levels as a part of its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

Modi during his election rallies reinforced his commitment for an energy revolution by harnessing the solar and wind energies. After assuming power, NDA government consistently pursued the agenda of promoting the renewable energy. To foster India’s green initiative, Modi launched an international solar alliance roping in over 120 countries at the Paris COP 21 Climate Summit with France President Francois Hollande. The alliance hailed as a game-changer by the environmentalists include several tropical countries that have poor access to electricity. Modi who as a Chief Minister of Gujrat, spearheaded solar energy production of 900MW under the  new solar alliance, appealed the International Agency for Solar Technologies and Applications (IASTA) to help in spreading cheap solar technology across the globe. The conglomerate evolved following the supported extended by rich nations like US, China and France who pledged to help poor countries in auguring the process of clean energy generation. The alliance which includes Latin American and African countries through focused investment and technology sharing aims to harness the solar energy.

India has set a gigantic task of stepping up the solar energy generation from the existing 4GW to 100 GW by 2020. Energy experts belief that 1 GW power is enough for 7,00,000 to 7,50,000 homes. Thus 100 GW has a potential of fulfilling the power needs of 7.5 crore Indian households. India has committed to invest $30 million towards Solar alliance with an investment of $400 million with Delhi as its headquarters. While receiving a thumbs up from international community for its noble initiative India is criticized for its fossil-fuel grid expansion. The Indian Solar Loan Program supported by United Nations Environment Program won prestigious Energy Globe World award for sustainability in helping to establish financial program for solar home power systems. NDA government was indeed successful in securing pledges from 213 companies to set up renewable energy capacity of 266GW in the next five years. So far the largest commitment for Solar power generation is from Sun Edison Inc for 15,200 MW and ReNEW Power Ventures Pvt Ltd for 11,500MW. Earlier renewable power generation has been part of corporate social responsibility but now government is seriously committed and has charted out future plans for utilization of green power sources. Currently India’s crude oil import bill which is around $150 billion is projected to touch $300 billion by 2030. Simultaneously, competitive tariff-bids, cheaper equipment and government subsidies ensured that solar tariff remained more affordable.

India is now hugely investing in tapping wind power and has fifth largest installed capacity in the World. Wind power generates 1.6% of the country’s power. India with its enviable coastline is indeed ideal for huge wind power installations. Renewable energy is fast becoming mainstream source of energy production. Besides, the phenomenal technological advancement provided the needed impetus to augur the power generation from green sources. Modi government has now announced tenders for the auction of the sea blocks for off shore wind projects identified by National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE). Per capita electricity consumption of India is one-fourth the World’s average and currently 300 million Indians don’t have access to power. Efforts are on to make the renewable energy generation more affordable. Though India is endowed with rich water resources, tapping of hydroelectric power is abysmally poor. In part, the woes of hydroelectricity is exacerbated by delayed environmental approvals, mandatory clearances, land acquisitions, rehabilitation of the displaced people. While international community had serious reservations about India’s commitment towards climate change, as a preemptive measure, India reduced oil subsidies, started imposing taxes on petroleum products, and introduced carbon tax. India is among one of the few countries that levy carbon tax on coal. Recently the levies are increased from Rs 100 to 200 per ton. These finances aid the National Clean Energy Fund. Presently the share of green energy is 12.25% percent and India aims to stoke it up to 40% by 2022. Clean energy investments reached $7.9 billion in 2014 making it the seventh largest clean energy investor in the world. The upswing was clearly steered by the NDA government, which is planning to start five funds of $ 5 billion each to promote green energy sources. Of late, plunging oil prices have delayed the international community’s shift to solar and wind energy. But India has been consistently pushing the green sources utilization.

Nuclear energy is another important thriving renewable source of energy in India. India’s ambitions received a major boost of stepping up nuclear power generation after it sealed civil nuclear agreement with US in 2008. The pact opened up India’s prospects of nuclear commerce as it was not signatory of Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  India aims to increase nuclear capacity to 63,000 MW by 2032 from 5780 MW. With ratification of the International Atomic Agency Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage (CSC) the final hurdle for setting up nuclear power reactors in India will receive a major boost. Investments in nuclear power in India were largely deterred after India adopted a law in 2010 giving the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) the right to seek damages from suppliers in case of an accident. Now Indian officials are trying to assuage foreign investors by setting up insurance pool with a liability cap of $226.16 million. CSC makes signatories shift liability to the operator and offer access to relief funds. Recently Russia offered to set up 12 nuclear plants of worth $3 billion each to India giving the much needed impetus of India’s nuclear power generation. Modi during his bilateral foreign visits have sealed pacts with Japan, US, France for technological assistance in setting up nuclear powers and with Australia and Canada for importing Uranium, the crucial fuel for nuclear power reactors. Despite, stiff opposition for the nuclear power generation, nuclear energy remains the most promising enterprise that can quench India’s power appetite. Efforts are on to rev-up India’s expertise in fast reactors and thorium fuel reactors to meet growing energy needs. By far, India has set an ambitious agenda for utilizing the renewable sources and is moving in right direction. Hope the enterprising ability of India can yield fruits and usher the country into a realm of green India.

 

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The Saga of Indo-Pak Strategic Relations

Modi’s unscheduled visit to Lahore raised a flurry of reactions with opposition branding NDA’s policy towards Pakistan as consistently inconsistent. Worse so, the parties within the Pakistan averse to peace engagement spruced up an attack on India in less than a week of celebrated photo-op. Calibrated derailing of peace efforts was unleashed in the form of Pathankot attack. The clandestine attacks besides attracting international condemnation has exposed the glaring failures of Indian security dispensation. Meanwhile, Modi has been punched hard by the political rivals for his smart diplomatic spontaneous Lahore stopover. Symptomatic of an emphatic statesman ship Modi coupled diplomatic credence with personal touch to give a great push to the peace process between India and Pakistan. The NSA level talks between the representatives of both countries accompanied by foreign secretaries, paved way for Foreign Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visit to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia conference in December. Together, these series of proactive measures evoked great interest among the Indo-Pak observers who expected a spirited rejuvenation. Undermining the popular expectations and true to their historical articulation of animosity between the countries, Pathankot attacks have thwarted the ordeal of peace and thawed hopes of a renewed engagement with Pakistan.

The attacks which claimed lives of seven armed personnel has raked Indian wounds. The petulant indignation for India’s friendly offer and the reviled actions of the terror forces trained, perpetuated and patronized by Pakistani dispensation in the PoK region mirrored Islamabad’s Islamic fundamentalism. Truly, the real commander in charge of Pakistan, Raheel Sharif, a vociferous advocate of fundamentalist ideology propounded by General Zia-ul-Haq’s successfully pumped in copious amounts of the jihadi doses into the system. Pakistanis leaders, unlike its founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah, a secular modernist have turned it into an experimental site for sectarian violence and religious bigotry. Subsequently, the country have become unsafe for even Shia and other minority Islamic sects. By now it is amply clear that Pakistan’s pogrom of unveiling terror is a prime component of its de facto foreign policy towards India.

Undeniably while Modi scored brownie points for his impromptu visit to Lahore, by reflecting India’s avowed peace-abiding posture, the terror backlash by the jihadi elements in a much shorter span of time reflected the real intentions of Pakistan Army. Clearly India was unprepared and the attack on Pathankot airbase spread in a huge expanse of 2000acres with a 24 km long perimeter wall close to the international border substantiates the same. Though the prompt intervention of the security forces has stemmed collateral damage, the glaring lacunae of Indian surveillance system needs to be plugged to avert any such future misadventures. Ironically, while India has wasted its strategic assets courtesy Prime Minister I.K. Gujral, the latest attack on India’s forward base is viewed by Indo-Pak strategic expert, Christine Fair, as a major comeback for the Jaish-e-Muhammed (JeM) which largely lost its vitality owing to a conflict of interest with Pakistan in 2001. On expected lines, Pakistani establishment promptly condemned the attack and UJC (United Jihadi Council) claimed responsibility for the same. But investigative agencies trace back the return of terror to the revival of JeM. Meanwhile, Pakistani media houses spread a dubious propaganda that India has self-inflicted the terror attack to defame Pakistan.

JeM was founded by Inter State Intelligence with Deobandi terrorists who have close ties with the “Deobandi Afghan Taliban, anti-Shia groups like Laskhar-e-Jhangvi, Sipah-e-Shaba-e-Pakistan and al-Qaeda”. In 1999, ISI along with JeM together launched an operation of hijacking the IC-814 aircraft travelling from Kathmandu to Delhi and forced it to land in Kandahar, the heartland of Afghan Taliban. India government was forced to release three terrorists incarcerated in Indian jail: Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Maulana Masood Azhar for safe release of all the Indian passengers on board. These three terrorists who were denied safe-havens in Afghanistan were immediately sheltered by Pakistan. Pakistan army by publicly exhibiting Masood Azhar collected huge amounts of funds for its jihadi acitivities Masood Azhar soon strengthened the JeM and engineered suicide attacks in Kashmir. He was captured by Indian forces in 1994 after taking western hostages. Meanwhile ISI also trained another outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba to up its ante against India and train guns in Kashmir. While JeM has splintered due to its disagreements with Pakistan for bringing down the Afghan Taliban, Masood Azhar remained loyal to Pakistan as an invaluable asset. The faction that defected from JeM emerged as the Pakistani Taliban or the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP).

Though the US and UN proscribed Masood Azhar, Pakistani deep state nurtured JeM operating from Bahawalpur in South Punjab and shielded it from international condemnation. Meanwhile Pakistan having failed to persuade the armed TTP militants working against it launched Zarb-e-Azb operation to cleanse them from their operational bases in tribal areas. TTP were offered a chance of either joining the Afghan Taliban or join the JeM to fight against India. Pathankot attack symbolizes the emboldened regrouping of the JeM.  Perpetration of terror outfits in all the neighboring countries of India (Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan) has been the crux of Pakistan foreign policy.

As the hysteria and cacophony of dissenting voices of self-proclaimed intellectuals over the Pathankot attacks dominate the public debates, it is misconstrued that straight talks and wielding a consent for a dialogue with Pakistan is synonymous to waving a white flag. Instead of succumbing to the arduous recourse of knee-jerk reactions amounting to calling-off the comprehensive dialogue scheduled for Jan 15^th between the foreign secretaries, it would be prudent to chart out strategies that can inflict a calibrated damage on Islamabad. With Afghanistan government confirming attacks on Indian Embassy at Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan on January were launched by JeM, India must prevail on Pakistan to act on its militant booty.

The animosity harbored by Pakistan is deeply ingrained. Vividly the betrayals and traumatic experiences of yesteryears faced by these antagonistic nations can hardly be erased. Pakistan’s narcissistic and imbued visceral hatred towards India hasn’t diminished over the years. Besides its obsession towards Kashmir, it is hell-bent on retarding the economic development of India. Its menacing strategy is now augured by extremist ideology, fuelling animosities. Wilful blocking of the transit of India goods through its territory to Afghanistan, incapacitating India’s role in restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan and keeping India out of peace talks in the South Asian region reflect the same. The resounding urgency demonstrated by Pakistan in wooing the Central Asian nations by allowing them to access its ports is an outcome of calibrated plans to compete with India. Pakistan’s allegiance to China and its growing affinity to Beijing too stems from the intentions of encircling India. Congruently so, the Indian Embassies in Afghanistan have been worst victims of onslaughts of terror supported and revivified by ISI. By perpetuating antagonism and revitalizing the militants trained to fight India, Pakistan has been persistently waging a low cost war and achieving its nefarious goals of destabilizing the peace and integrity of India.

Pakistan is boisterously poised, with its economy stabilized and aspirations resurrected by two powerful countries of the world. It is now ambitiously reenergizing venomous fangs of terrorism. Clearly, the empty rhetoric and stale promises of containing terrorism by the US stand out with Obama government tacitly approving sale of eight F-16s and extending the coalition support fund (CSF). Churlishly for a long time India has been exploring darker charters of peace process without reliable maps. New Delhi must endeavor to fathom larger objectives of strategic assets created by Rawalpindi, the key ingredients of its core national security agenda. India must evolve a strategy befitting of a strong nation. The economic paradigm of India has made a marked progression and its diplomatic stride must be emblematic of an emerging nation. Simultaneously, it must be extremely vigilant and cautious in defending its borders and strategic interests elsewhere too. It is not time for rhetoric and loud mouthed dissonant talks but a time to invoke, nurture and build a long term strategic plan.

While India continues to engage with the toothless civilian administration, headed by Nawaz Sharif enthusiastically, the armed forces that discriminate and coddle good terrorists are all out on rampage. Interestingly, as long as international community pressurizes India to engage with Pakistan and the US continues to extend red carpet welcome to the uninvited Raheel Sharif at Washington, Pakistan’s claims for Kashmir stands authentic. Pakistan is slowly bleeding India by pushing narcotic traffickers into India and steadily debilitating the health of Punjab public. Recent confessions by a BSF officer throws light on how ISI is infiltrating attackers armed with sophisticated ammunition and narcotics through the borders dressed in Indian army uniforms. (On a different note, even communal riots in Malda of West Bengal had a narcotic angle to it).

Modi government has clearly focused on making India war-ready for a conventional war by speeding arms acquisition, delivery and purchase process. Sadly, India despite facing the onslaught of terror from across the borders has failed to evolve a counter-terrorism strategy. For that matter, it is unfortunate for a country aspiring to a leading power in South Asia, consecutive leaderships have miserably bungled in developing a long term strategic plan to deter the insidious acts of Pakistan. Modi on his part, during his bilateral visits to several countries expounded the need and urgency for formatting a counter-terrorism forum. But as of now nothing has materialized, though Saudi Arabia under the international duress announced a counter-terrorism alliance, it is largely an Islamic family affair (rather Sunni sect conglomerate). It is now clear that India all by itself has to subvert the multi-pronged attacks of Pakistan (infiltration of terrorists and counterfeit currency through Nepal, pushing militants along porous Indo-Bangladesh borders and acquiring classified information by planting spies in Sri Lankan Embassy etc). India must shed its deterrence and should formulate new strategies. The potential strategies can include seeking Iran’s support in rejuvenating Baluchistan secession movement and potentially graduating economic ties for constructing oil pipeline instead of relying on TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipeline that runs through Pakistan. India must continue to extend armed support to Afghanistan and should affirmatively present its case at UN seeking a ban on JeM and freezing its financial transactions. Meanwhile, India must consistently work towards strengthening its ties with its immediate neighborhood and resolve outstanding issues amicably. New Delhi shouldn’t mince words in deciphering Pakistan’s abominable policy of patronizing terror outfits that potentially derailed restoration of peace in Afghanistan and bolstered cross-border terrorism and infiltration in India.

Ironically, fearing the nuclear clout of Pakistan, international community coerced India against launching an offensive action against Islamabad after the attacks on Indian Parliament in 2001. It is time India construes the double game of Pakistan. Indian leadership instead of being bogged down by calumny of hatred must impose serious deterrent costs on Pakistan when peace is violated without undermining its focused economic agenda. India has seldom imposed a time frame for action, Modi for the first time has set a 72-hour deadline for action. India was never rapacious and congruently and Pakistan habituated to obfuscation and tendency to delay wasn’t hard pressed to act. India’s attitude of no reason to “distrust Pakistan yet” might give it enough leeway to dismiss evidence provided by India as insufficient. Though Nawaz Sharif has assured “prompt and decisive action” with perpetrators of 26/11 moving scot-free in Pakistan, it is time India contemplates tough action aside indulging in bilateral talks.

In the meanwhile as Pakistan’s high pedestal began to shake with US Congress stalling sale of F-16s and CSF and following India’s stern tenor-Pakistan media reported arrest of 12 JeM terrorists in connection with Pathankot attacks. In a major development, Obama on his farewell speech apprehended that in the highly instabilized Islamic World, Afghan-Pak borders are poised to remain more unstable in years to come. With Obama clearly bringing international attention to the terror havens of Pakistan, the onus is on Islamabad to rein in on the alternative army raised by the deep state. Accordingly, a carefully worded statement issued by Pakistan PMO confirmed that JeM men were apprehended, offices in Jhelum, Gujranwala, Multan and Bahawalpur districts were sealed and that Joint Investigation Team of Pakistan will travel to India to aid in investigation on the attacks. Despite the assurances from the Pakistani Civilian government, owing to the dubious infamy of Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s committal to expeditious actions might have few takers. It is not sheer coincidence that Mazar-e-Sharif attack was carried by JeM operatives, who left a message in Urdu that Afzal Guru’s hanging was avenged. Though JeM operations were clamped down by Pakistan under international pressure in 2003, it continued to operate under the tutelage of ISI. Latest media reports indicated that JeM Chief was detained but Pakistan officials haven’t confirmed the new development.  With meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Sushma Swaraj and Jaishankar Subramanyam underway, India is to take final call on the scheduled foreign secretary talks. Incidentally, while detaining Masood Azhar in itself is a major breakthrough, Pakistan’s past history of inept judicial process undermines the credence of this spontaneous action. Alarmingly, despite mounting evidence it is not times up Pakistan.....

 

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Chinese Brahmaputra Dam Rattle India

China’s uncanny infrastructure development drives to extol its territorial or maritime claims has already stoked tensions in the South East Region. Presently its frenzied dam building process is set to exacerbate the trans-border tensions between India and China with China announcing the operationalization of largest high-altitude dam over Brahmaputra River in Tibet. Beijing known for its reputation of damming rivers has announced working of the $1.5billion Zangmu hydroelectric dam capable of generating 2.5 billion kilowatt-hours power annually on Oct 13^th. A run-over-the-river dam was built 140 km from Lhasa to harness the water resources of Brahmaputra River called as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet.  Construction of dam was approved in 2009, first generator was commissioned in November 2014 and by October 2015 all the six units are working and dam is fully operational. 

Brahmaputra is the World’s highest altitude river, sixth largest river in terms of water flows and carries heavy sediment from the Himalayan glaciers. In fact the periodical flooding of this river refurbishes the heavily cultivated soils with fresh deposits of nutrient laden sediments enhancing the soil fertility in India and Bangladesh. Brahmaputra is a trans-border river with origins in the Chemyungdung glacier located in Himalayas of Burlung county of Tibet. Tsangpo flows 1625 km eastwards through South Tibet and at Shuomatan Point it cuts a fantastic U-turn or Great Bend making a Grand Canyon of Tsangpo and enters Arunachal Pradesh in India making a rapid descent to South where it is called Dihang (Siang River). Dihang is joined by Dibang and Lohit rivers ahead of Assam Valley. In Assam it is called Brahmaputra where it widens as other Himalayan streams like Subansiri, Kameng, Sonitpur, Bhareli, Dhanasiri, Manas, Champamathi, Saral bhanga, and Sankosh join the flow. When Brahmaputra enters Bangladesh it is joined by Teesta River and it is called as Jamuna. This is later joined by Padma (a tributary of Ganges) and Meghna and waters near Chandpur empty into Bay of Bengal. Brahmaputra River is the lifeline for India’s North East region and Bangladesh. Livelihoods of millions of people are directly dependent on the waters of this mighty river. Construction of colossal dam by China stoked fears in India’s North East states as it has greater economic implications and would eventually heighten the contentious Indo-China border tensions.

China’s frantic pace of hydro-engineering clearly evoked paranoia among lower riparian states as erection of massive dams upstream will invariably effect the water flows downstream. Besot with damming of major rivers China reached saturation level in its territory is now trudging to exploit the invaluable water resources in its allied territories. As pointed out by Brahma Chellaney China is now invoking water nationalism to tap the resources of international rivers by drawing a link between water and national security. China has a two-pronged strategy to harness the water resources of Brahmaputra- firstly it intends to construct hydroelectric power projects and then envisages to divert waters to the dry northern territories.

While China claims that construction of the run-of-the-river dams will not involve storage of water and has least impact on downstream flows experts believe that hydroelectric projects blow a death knell for river. Moreover for power generation, waters will be stored in pondage and released when turbines are ready to operate. Consequently water flow will not be uniform and the fluctuations will vary from 0 to 400% causing diurnal variations. This in turn will drastically affect the aquatic life. Above all with plans of rerouting water at the great bend to the dry areas in north, there will be significant depletion in water flows to India. Invariably agriculture and fishing in downstream areas will suffer. Tibetan Autonomous Region, a treasure trove of minerals and priceless water resources is over exploited by China worsening environmental degradation. The relentless massive dam building spree in geologically dynamic Himalayan region, known to be earth quake prone will have threatening consequences over a period of time. Building gigantic dams in this region will trigger devastating artificial earthquakes. Gruesome earthquake of 1950 which hit the Assam Valley and Siachuan earthquake in 2008 that claimed 80,000 lives are stark reminders of the ecological fragility of the region. China’s renewed interest in exploiting Brahmaputra River stems from the fact that its annual downstream discharge is much more than the all other trans-border rivers flowing through its territory to the South East region. Insouciant to interests of the downstream nations, China has intensively dammed upstream region of Mekong (from Tibet it runs through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and empties into South China Sea) and Salween( from Tibet  and extends to China, Myanmar, Thailand and drains into Andaman Sea)  rivers flowing through its territory.

China’s steadfast riparian dominance can potentially escalate conflicts between the nations in the region. Its defiance to enter water sharing agreements with co-riparian states, progressive expansion of water resources from its annexed territories, coupled with its political hegemony, economic clout and unparalleled hydro-engineering expertise may portend future water wars. While judicious water-sharing agreements or treaties are hall marks of propitious relationship between nations in Central Asia, South and South East Asia, Beijing refuses to enter any such riparian agreements.

Unlike China, India should be concerned as 2030 water resources group predicted that India will experience a 50% deficit in water supply. Availability of water per head per year will be 11 times lower than China. India’s surface water storage capacity or the ability to cope up seasonal water shortages is one of the lowest in the World. Conversely internal renewable water resources of China are twice that of India and it has virtually 50% larger external inflows of water than India. India’s water woes are really worse and its plans grossly fall short of action.

In 2009 when China approved construction of Zangmu dam, India expeditiously pursued construction of 14 hydel projects downstream of Brahmaputra River in Arunachal Pradesh to establish ‘lower riparian right’. Under doctrine of prior appropriation, a priority right first falls on the first user of river waters. Within 6 years while China managed to build a gigantic dam, construction of dams which is state subject in India is stifled by green sluggish administration, delay in environment clearances and protests by anti-dam activists.

India and China signed MoU in 2008, 2010 and 2013 that facilitated India to obtain data on the water levels, discharge and rainfall twice a day from May to October from three hydrological station in Tibet for which China charges 82 lakhs annually while India shares this data with Pakistan and Bangladesh free of cost. Apart from pacts on hydrological data sharing no agreement on water sharing was ever signed between the countries. Earlier the Inter- Ministerial Expert Group (IMEG) on Brahmaputra indicated that construction of dams on upper reaches will have impact on the downstream region. They expressed concerns about existence of three dams-Jiexu, Zangmu and Jiacha within 25km of each other and 550 km away from Indian border. As an upper riparian state China is entitled to discuss its plans with the lower riparian states- India and Bangladesh to allay fears. While a tripartite water-sharing agreement between the three states can be best possible way to address this issue, Chinese opacity, lack of transparency, reluctance to accept, non-consultative approach beget more trepidations.

Aside the worrisome implications of damming by China, India must emulate Chinese developmental patterns, the tardy connectivity network to the frontier regions of India pale before the robust infrastructure of Tibet. The hydel projects in Arunachal Pradesh failed to kick-start due to decrepit road and rail links. Though China has assured that “nothing will be done that will affect India’s interest” the moot point is whether India can trust China considering its past history in the region. In spite of China’s unilateral approach India as a lower riparian state must engage in a constructive dialogue to evolve a frame-work for beneficial water sharing.

 

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India's Reconnect With Russia

India has been a close ally of erstwhile Soviet Union since 1960’s and had an exceptional camaraderie. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia became time-tested partner of India. For the past five decades, Russia was the top most military weapons and equipment supplier of India. Bilateral relations between these countries are rooted in and strengthened by defence trade.  Irrespective of the change of leadership, bilateral ties with Russia remained very strong. With signing of “Declaration on the India- Russia Strategic Partnership” in 2000, the bilateral cooperation soon extended to politics, trade and economy, security, culture, science and technology. By 2010, the strategic partnership is elevated to Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. The dialogue mechanism between India and Russian Federation is characterized by Annual Bilateral Summit Meetings which are held alternatively in India and Russia. Modi on his two-day upcoming visit to Russia will participate in the 16^th Annual Summit Meetings on Dec 23^rd. During the 15^th Annual Summit meet held in Delhi, on December 10^th 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin adopted a joint statement “Druzhba-Dosti”: A vision for strengthening Indian-Russian Partnership over the next decade.

Russia has been key pillar of India’s foreign policy. Besides, annual summit meeting at the highest level, two intergovernmental commissions- one on trade, economic, trade, scientific, technological and cultural cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) co-chaired by External Affairs Minister and the Russian Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and another on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) co- chaired by Defence Ministers of both countries meet annually. Foreign Ministers of both countries this year met along the sidelines of Russia-India-China (RIC) Foreign Ministers meet in Beijing this year. Months before Modi’s state visit to Russia, Foreign Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar participated in the meetings and prepared the ground for Modi’s annual summit meet. Traditional bilateral ties so far were confined to defence, nuclear and heavy industry. With top aerospace companies keen on investing in India for manufacturing components for the civil and military programs in India, a high-powered Indian business delegates will travel to attend Indo-Russia CEO meet to deliberate at the prospect of forming joint venture (JV) companies. To boost up trade and investments Modi will address the Russian investors at the Moscow Expo Centre on Dec 24^th. About 300 Indian companies are registered in Russia whose cumulative investments account for $8 billion while Russian investments in India is about $4 billion. Last year Essar Oil has signed agreement with Rosenft Oil Company of Russia for a period of 10 years.

Trade Ties

Indo-Russian trade volume as of 2014 is $9.51 billion of which India’s exports which include pharmaceuticals, iron& steel, manufactured products, apparels, tea, coffee and tobacco  account of $3.17 billion and imports which majorly include diamonds, fertilisers, nuclear and defence equipment is $6.34 billion. Despite the long standing bilateral ties, the volume of trade is abysmally low. During the 15^th Indo-Russian Annual Summit countries have set a target of $30 billion by 2025. Besides, military ties, India and Russia are contemplating on exploring trade ties beyond energy, IT, diamonds and pharmacy. A $3 billion fund to promote startups in nanotechnology, aerospace, defence and manufacturing sectors. India is also seeking Russian investment in National Infrastructure Fund and keen in capitalizing Russian interest in India’s Make in India (MII). In a $1 billion worth project, India’s Hindustan Aeronautical Limited and Anil Amban’s Reliance Defence as local partners will team up with Russia to manufacture 200 Kamov-226T helicopters to replace aging Cheetah and Chetak helicopters used for ferrying supplies to Siachen glacier. Turkey recently gunned down Russian fighter jet on the charges of air space violations and infuriated Russia in retaliation pulled plug on its bilateral trade relations with Ankara and is looking towards its traditional partners for investment destinations. Modi during his visit is keen on filling the vacuum created by those sectorial sanctions. Deputy PM of Russia, Dmitry Rogozin who was in India few days back to prepare for Modi’s trip indicated that Russia now wants India to be its major trade and economic partner. Some Indian strategists opine that despite India’s shift towards the west for defence equipment, Russia has an edge over the west in several areas. Further, Russia having invested in India over several decades, well-versed with Indian bureaucracy can be a valuable partner in MII.

Energy Cooperation

 Another key aspect of Modi’s trip will be expanding nuclear energy cooperation. Russia is seeking India’s cooperation in building nuclear power plants in other third world countries, in the area of joint extraction of Uranium, production of nuclear fuel and atomic waste elimination. Russia might announce plans of setting up of six Advanced Light Water Reactors of 1200 (Megawatt) each in Andhra Pradesh. Modi’s astute oil diplomacy helped India’s ONGC Videsh to acquire 15% stake in Russia’s Vankor Field when Modi attended BRICS Summit at Ufa in July, 2015. During his upcoming Summit meetings Modi will finalize second overseas oil assets acquisition worth $1 billion towards 29% of Rosenft’s stakes in Siberian Oil Project by Oil India.

Defence Ties

The long standing cooperation in the defence field gradually evolved from seller-buyer relationship to collaborative joint research, development and production of advanced defence technology and systems. BrahMos Missile system, joint development of fifth generation air crafts and multi transport aircraft are the illustrious outcomes of such cooperation. But of late several lucrative Indian defence deals were clinched by Russia toppling it from the status of the top most defence equipment supplier of India. In an effort to mollify Russia, India has finalized purchase of five units of S-400 Triumf Air Defence Missile Technology worth $10 billion, capable of destroying incoming aircrafts, drones and missiles within a range of 400km. Defence Acquisition System (DAC) has also cleared decks for purchase of six regiments of Pinaka rocket system under MII, 571 light bullet proof vehicles for counter-insurgency operations, 120 trawls, 24 Pechora Air defense systems and an electronic warfare system deployed in mountainous areas for Indian Army. Last year India leased a sub-marine Admiral Gorshkov which is commissioned into Indian Navy as INS Vikramaditya. Defence cooperation has been a key aspect of Indo-Russian relations and both countries annually hold joint military exercises.

Other major aspects on the agenda include expediting the progress of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), up gradation of Chabahar port, finalization of India’s proposed membership to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), expanding cooperation in outer space research projects and maximizing opportunities in SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). This year marks 40^th anniversary of launch of India’s first satellite Aryabhatta on Russian launch vehicle Soyuz. According to some media reports, Modi may travel to Astrakhan, gateway to Caspian Sea from Moscow. During his stint as a Chief Minister of Gujarat, a MoU was signed between Gujarat state and Astrakhan region establishing cooperation in five areas- hydrocarbon research, ship-building, ship-breaking, revival of trade routes (between Okha port of Gujarat and Olya Port in Astrakhan region) and promotion of tourism. Sister-city relations are in vogue between Ahmedabad and Astrakhan City. Indian House in Astrakhan houses a library that has extensive reports of Gujarat traders traveling to this region rich in natural resources and establishing strong trading ties. Old chronicles indicated that Indian traders had even married local women and lived there. India and Russia are now exploring the possibility of creating broad counter terrorism coalition.

Over the past few years India’s marked economic surge, levitation towards the US and geopolitical prominence culminated in decline of Russia’s share in India’s defence trade. Meanwhile, following annexation of Crimea by Russia, Ukraine plunged into crisis and the west imposed economic sanctions on Moscow. In a double whammy for Russian economy, plummeting global oil prices to as low as less than $40 a barrel coupled by economic sanctions aggravated its financial crisis. With India’s defence acquisitions from Russia witnessing a steep fall, aggrieved Russia paid mere lip service to India’s candidature for UNSC and chose to join China and Pakistan in undermining the G-4 initiative at the UN General Assembly. Distressed by the prospect of recession and increased western alienation Russia is pushed into China’s embrace. Joint military exercises with China in the Mediterranean region testimonies changing geopolitical equations of Asia. Despite the violation of the copyrights and reverse engineering of Russian defence equipment supplied to China and reneging on the prodigious $400 billion oil and natural gas contract for a period of 30 years, Russia is sticking to China. In 2012, China acquired Russian Su-27 flanker jets and reverse engineered them into J-11B aircraft.  In partnership with China, Russia is now entering into crucial Afghanistan- Pakistan regions and Central Asia. Intriguingly, Russian strategists are now increasing viewing Pakistan as South Asian gate keeper and following visits by General Kayani in 2012, there is a conceivable Russian policy shift towards Islamabad. This was followed by an agreement wherein Russia supplied RD 93 engines for JF 17 fighters assembled in Pakistan in collaboration with China. Recently, General Raheel Sharif on his visit to Russia signed an agreement for sale of advanced Sukhoi 35 fighters and MI 35 attack helicopters. Ironically Russia in its joint statement with India in 2003 condemned Pakistan for patronizing terror outfits on its territory is now alarmingly quiet and soft towards Islamabad. In fact it later emerged that having lost the lucrative Indian helicopter deals and combat aircrafts to the US and France respectively, Russia out of desperation have reached out to Pakistan.

With India pandering to the US by signing 123 agreement, Russia is now flirting with Pakistan and China to enliven its grand stratagem of creating a Eurasian Union. Ever since Russia’s aggressive air strikes against the ISIS on September 30^th, 2015 geopolitics experienced a major shift.  Economic sanctions, plunging oil prices, Syrian attacks have seriously crippled Russian economy, compelling it to seek refuge in China. But Russia is a junior partner with China and is wary of its historical disappointments with Beijing wherein Mao had out rightly dumped Russia to embrace US.  Russia’s overtures with Pakistan is borne largely out of its “compulsive” need to sell military weapons. India is currently the fastest growing economy and intensifying strategic ties, bilateral trade and economic partnership will in best interest of both countries.

Through his phenomenal diplomatic outreach, Modi established strong connect with Barack Obama, Shinzo Abe, Angela Merkel, David Cameron and Francois Hollande but such a chemistry is not witnessed with Putin. India’s growing ties with the US had offended Russia. But as an emerging economy, it is incumbent on India to expand strategic ties with west and Japan for larger geopolitical advantage, to contain the assertiveness of China and to attract investments and technology. Contemporaneously, India has to infuse more confidence in bilateral ties with Russia, with which it has special and highly privileged partnership. Indeed, Russia needs to understand that India is now no longer a balancing power but a leading nation in South Asia.

 

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India’s Strategic Partnership with Japan

While the Indian mainstream media has been striving tirelessly to espouse the irony of vendetta politics that stalled business in parliament, the world media is abuzz with the robust diplomatic engagement between India and Japan. The Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe was in India on his third diplomatic visit to India to attend the ninth Indo-Japan Summit Talks. The three day long visit is highly watched not only for the diplomatic engagement between Asia’s large economies but also for the unusual personal chemistry between the leaders. Both Modi and Abe touted as ardent nationalists, share similar strategic and economic ambitions aims to consolidate regional leadership. India and Japan are historically connected and have been inheritors of Buddhism. Post World War II, war ravaged Japan surrendered to the Allied Forces, restricted its future of course by the directives etched in its pacifist constitution.  India on the other hand, in 1960’s rigorously advocated, followed the doctrine of non-alignment and was averse to ally with any country. By 1970’s Japan emerged as an economic giant while India stumbled in developmental race. Despite its Look East Policy it failed to catch up with its East Asian peers. Post- Cold war the geopolitical equations drastically changed. By late 1990’s China with its enviable growth toppled the Asian leader Japan and evolved as an assertive and unassailable economy. Burdened by burgeoning ageing population, Japan soon slipped into recession and growth rates slid. Soon the destiny of Asia was controlled by the US and China. India and Japan became insignificant.

India and Japan for long shied away from alliances are now finding lost ground under the leadership of Modi and Abe who are keen on expanding security cooperation. In lieu of growing military provocations of China, began Abe incorporating amendments in its pacifist constitution since 2011. Simultaneously, launched Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure with $110 billion investment aimed to promote quality infrastructure across Asia, an alternative to China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road) project of China. To enhance the strategic dimension of Japan’s proactive financial assistance, Japan has been competing with China. Recently it even clenched contract for development of a port in Bangladesh. Of late smaller countries like Sri Lanka have apprehensions about Chinese investments as the hidden interest rates are extremely high.  Japan by offering low interest rates is jumping into the business of infrastructure development. While Japan may not out compete China in infrastructure deals but the long term experience and quality of Japan’s projects might soon find more takers. Abe is now aggressively pitching for exports and a sustainable infrastructure development to rejuvenate its economy.

As Modi aims to position India as a lead country as opposed to a marginal/ balancing player, it critically falls short of the resources and capability. Moreover India is contained by China which has strategically positioned itself in our immediate neighborhood by way of rapidly transforming the infrastructure topology of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. India in order to improve connectivity within the country and beyond must forge partnership with Tokyo. Japan’s new infrastructure promotion agenda unlike its earlier developmental aid is strategically oriented and New Delhi is now all set to seize this opportunity. In short, the unprecedented rise of China indeed propelled India and Japan to enter into a realm of strong strategic collaboration.

The Indo-Japan Summit talks have three common strategic interests- investment in India’s infrastructure and financial development, civil nuclear cooperation and defence ties. Amidst speculations of the extent of cooperation in all three major areas of strategic interests and their fructification, overwhelming support offered by Japan is a real booster for the fledging Indian economy. Japan has played a key role in the economic resurgence of several South East Countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Despite the traditional rivalry with China, Japan accounts for 11% of total investments in Shanghai. Propitiously, ahead of his visit, Abe emphasized that “strong India is in best interest of Japan, and strong Japan is in best interest of India”. The unfolding of the partnership between India and Japan is better complemented by their lacunae whereby deep pockets of Japan can fuel infrastructure development projects in India. On the other hand, the rapidly aging population of Japan is antithetical to the huge demographic dividend of India. Thus coming together of these countries is win-win situation for both.

Infrastructure and Economic Development

The most important outcome of Abe’s visit has been finalization of the high speed-bullet train built on the Shinkansen Model between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, of length 505km at the cost of Rs 98,000 crores ( $12 billlion). The will drastically cut the travel time from 7hrs to 2hrs. As per the terms of agreement, India has to repay the loan amount over a period of 50 years at an interest rate of 0.1% with a 10 year grace period. This deal comes to India at a time when Japan has lost out to a contract to China worth $5 billion in Indonesia. Besides transferring the relevant technology, Japan indicated that all the equipment, machinery and components will be manufactured in India. Japan has outcompeted China in investment pledges to India. While the volume of Indo-Japanese trade is about 5% of its trade with China, Japan is funneling $29 billion to India as infrastructure loans (includes high speed train), finance and public investments in India. Japan has promised to provide $3.31 billion as developmental assistance to support infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh, the vantage point for Chinese incursions, and another $1.65 billion the following year.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation

In a surprising development India and Japan reached a major breakthrough on civil nuclear cooperation. Japan, the lone Asian country which suffered the cataclysm of atomic bombs during the World War II is highly vocal about its reservations towards nuclear use. In a significant move, Japan agreed to make concessions for sealing nuclear energy cooperation with India owing to its international credence as peaceful. Japan promised to reconsider its stance and sought India’s clarification on its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear tests. India will be the only non-signatory of NPT treaty towards which Japan has softened its stand. The technical details will be finalized after Japan Parliament endorses the pact. Civil nuclear pact will open up new vistas for India’s aspirations of green energy. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) too issued a waiver to India to carry on nuclear commerce following assurance of Pranab Mukherjee of “voluntary, unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing” in 2008 before the NSG. This move will facilitate the entry of Japanese nuclear industry hard hit by the Fukushima disaster into lucrative Indian markets.

With India announcing cuts of fossil fuel emissions and slowly enhancing its renewable energy sources to 40%, nuclear energy is viable option. India’s goal of clean energy will receive a lease for life through civil nuclear cooperation.

Defence Ties

India and Japan signed an agreement on reciprocal protection of military information transmitted to each other. With Japan easing its military weapons purchase regime, US-2 amphibious aircraft made by ShinMaywa Industries was anticipated. But the sale wasn’t finalized and instead an agreement was reached that provides framework to increase defence and security cooperation. The Joint Statement titled “India and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region” both leaders have exalted the trust the parties have reposed in each other. The oft used term of Asia- pacific was replaced by Indo-Pacific in the statement invigorating the defence ties between the countries and highlighting the concept of “Confluence of the two seas” (The Indian Ocean and The Pacific Ocean) promoted by Abe. The document reflected the aspirations, strategic vision and bi-lateral synergy of both countries. They pledged to work for the peace and security in the region and hinted at the possibility of a grand maritime cooperation. The Joint Statement also indicated Japan’s participation in the Indo-US joint naval exercises Malabar, marking the emergence of a formidable trilateral in the Indo-Pacific region. This alliance obviously glued by the US has added significant heft to the Asia’s Pivot doctrine of the US. In fact, this might soon be a quadrilateral with Australia keen on being part of the naval exercises.

Moreover with India shedding its traditional ambiguity and endorsing the freedom of navigation (FON), over flight and unimpeded navigation through the contested South China Sea (SCS), India endorsed the Japan’s stand on SCS. China can now hardly ignore the strategic engagement between India and Japan. Both countries reiterated the need for effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration of the Conduct of the Parties in the SCS and early conclusion of the negotiations to establish code of conduct in SCS. China took a strong dig at this statement and alleged that the diplomatic engagement between India and Japan is an attempt to contain China. Further they condemned terrorism in all forms and vouched for Zero Tolerance towards terror groups and called for effective implementation of the UNSC resolution 1267 and other resolution that can eliminate safe havens of terror, disrupt terror networks, financing channels and their cross-border movements. They affirmed the importance of bringing the perpetrators of Mumbai blasts to justice.

Besides, being high on tangible outcomes, the Indo-Japan ties have reached a new high on the soft diplomacy frontiers as well. In tune with the eclectic welcome extended to Prime Minister on his bilateral visit to Japan in 2014 at Kyoto, Varanasi has thrown away a celebratory reception to Abe. Bedecked with flowers, resplendent with bright colors, invoking the spiritual omniscience of Lord Vishwanath, both Prime Ministers attended the traditional Ganga Aarti. The mystic hues of the Dashashwamedh Ghat amidst the ritualistic chanting of the scared Sanskrit hymns exemplified the ancient traditional glory and culture of the land. The unique camaraderie of Modi and Abe was in grand display at the banks of Ganga who spend 40 minutes in rapt attention. Earlier in 2014 Modi has signed Partner City agreement between Varanasi and Kyoto and a MoU The Japan International Cooperation Agency extended support in cleaning Ganga under the Ganga Action plan to make it pollution free.

In all 16 deals were signed between countries to deepen economic, strategic and defence cooperation and evocatively strengthen the Make In India, Skills India and Digital India Initiatives. Modi announced visa-on-arrival to Japanese citizens from March 1^st 2016. Japan has committed $34 billion investment in India during Modi’s visit in 2014 which are now slowly pouring in. Strategists are now drawing similarities to China’s $46 billion investment in the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) to Japan’s impeccable infrastructure development projects. US and Japan despite the conflict of interests in the SCS and East China Sea have never undermined their economic engagement with China. While China and US spar over FON, they have reached milestone agreements over issues of climate and cyber security too. In fact for the first time in November 2015, PLA hosted first Army to Army dialogue with the US and charted out confidence building measures. India supported China’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and an important partner of New Development Bank (NBD) of BRICS. China has accepted the membership of India into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). If India is truly committed in overhauling its economy, it has to unequivocally develop close ties with the top three economies of the World.

Abe’s visit witnessed the significant transformation of India from a peripheral country to a lead player exuding the commitment in defending its ties and ability to forge partnerships with friendly nations.  Since 2000 India leadership consistently invested in building ties with Japan and Modi gave the needed thrust transforming the relations and intensifying bilateral cooperation. Eventually a strong Indo-Japan alliance can checkmate Chinese hegemony and stabilize the lopsided Asia’s balance of power. @ Copyrights reserved.