China’s uncanny infrastructure development drives to extol
its territorial or maritime claims has already stoked tensions in the South
East Region. Presently its frenzied dam building process is set to exacerbate
the trans-border tensions between India and China with China announcing the
operationalization of largest high-altitude dam over Brahmaputra River in
Tibet. Beijing known for its reputation of damming rivers has announced working
of the $1.5billion Zangmu hydroelectric dam capable of generating 2.5 billion
kilowatt-hours power annually on Oct 13th. A run-over-the-river dam
was built 140 km from Lhasa to harness the water resources of Brahmaputra River
called as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet. Construction of dam was approved in 2009,
first generator was commissioned in November 2014 and by October 2015 all the
six units are working and dam is fully operational.
Brahmaputra is the World’s highest altitude river, sixth
largest river in terms of water flows and carries heavy sediment from the
Himalayan glaciers. In fact the periodical flooding of this river refurbishes
the heavily cultivated soils with fresh deposits of nutrient laden sediments
enhancing the soil fertility in India and Bangladesh. Brahmaputra is a trans-border
river with origins in the Chemyungdung glacier located in Himalayas of Burlung
county of Tibet. Tsangpo flows 1625 km eastwards through South Tibet and at
Shuomatan Point it cuts a fantastic U-turn or Great Bend making a Grand Canyon
of Tsangpo and enters Arunachal Pradesh in India making a rapid descent to
South where it is called Dihang (Siang River). Dihang is joined by Dibang and
Lohit rivers ahead of Assam Valley. In Assam it is called Brahmaputra where it
widens as other Himalayan streams like Subansiri, Kameng, Sonitpur, Bhareli,
Dhanasiri, Manas, Champamathi, Saral bhanga, and Sankosh join the flow. When
Brahmaputra enters Bangladesh it is joined by Teesta River and it is called as
Jamuna. This is later joined by Padma (a tributary of Ganges) and Meghna and
waters near Chandpur empty into Bay of Bengal. Brahmaputra River is the
lifeline for India’s North East region and Bangladesh. Livelihoods of millions
of people are directly dependent on the waters of this mighty river.
Construction of colossal dam by China stoked fears in India’s North East states
as it has greater economic implications and would eventually heighten the
contentious Indo-China border tensions.
China’s frantic pace of hydro-engineering clearly evoked
paranoia among lower riparian states as erection of massive dams upstream will
invariably effect the water flows downstream. Besot with damming of major
rivers China reached saturation level in its territory is now trudging to
exploit the invaluable water resources in its allied territories. As pointed
out by Brahma Chellaney China is now invoking water nationalism to tap the
resources of international rivers by drawing a link between water and national
security. China has a two-pronged strategy to harness the water resources
of Brahmaputra- firstly it intends to construct hydroelectric power projects
and then envisages to divert waters to the dry northern territories.
While China claims that construction of the run-of-the-river
dams will not involve storage of water and has least impact on downstream flows
experts believe that hydroelectric projects blow a death knell for river.
Moreover for power generation, waters will be stored in pondage and released
when turbines are ready to operate. Consequently water flow will not be uniform
and the fluctuations will vary from 0 to 400% causing diurnal variations. This
in turn will drastically affect the aquatic life. Above all with plans of
rerouting water at the great bend to the dry areas in north, there will be significant
depletion in water flows to India. Invariably agriculture and fishing in downstream
areas will suffer. Tibetan Autonomous Region, a treasure trove of minerals and priceless
water resources is over exploited by China worsening environmental degradation.
The relentless massive dam building spree in geologically dynamic Himalayan
region, known to be earth quake prone will have threatening consequences over a
period of time. Building gigantic dams in this region will trigger devastating
artificial earthquakes. Gruesome earthquake
of 1950 which hit the Assam Valley and Siachuan earthquake in 2008 that
claimed 80,000 lives are stark reminders of the ecological fragility of the
region. China’s renewed interest in exploiting Brahmaputra River stems from the
fact that its annual downstream discharge is much more than the all other
trans-border rivers flowing through its territory to the South East region. Insouciant
to interests of the downstream nations, China has intensively dammed upstream
region of Mekong (from Tibet it runs through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand,
Cambodia, Vietnam and empties into South China Sea) and Salween( from
Tibet and extends to China, Myanmar,
Thailand and drains into Andaman Sea) rivers flowing through its territory.
China’s steadfast riparian dominance can potentially escalate
conflicts between the nations in the region. Its defiance to enter water
sharing agreements with co-riparian states, progressive expansion of water
resources from its annexed territories, coupled with its political hegemony,
economic clout and unparalleled hydro-engineering expertise may portend future
water wars. While judicious water-sharing agreements or treaties are hall marks
of propitious relationship between nations in Central Asia, South and South
East Asia, Beijing refuses to enter any such riparian agreements.
Unlike China, India should be concerned as 2030 water
resources group predicted that India will experience a 50% deficit in water
supply. Availability of water per head per year will be 11 times lower than
China. India’s surface water storage capacity or the ability to cope up
seasonal water shortages is one of the lowest in the World. Conversely internal
renewable water resources of China are twice that of India and it has virtually
50% larger external inflows of water than India. India’s water woes are
really worse and its plans grossly fall short of action.
In 2009 when China approved construction of Zangmu dam, India
expeditiously pursued construction of 14 hydel projects downstream of
Brahmaputra River in Arunachal Pradesh to establish ‘lower riparian right’. Under
doctrine of prior appropriation, a priority right first falls on the first user
of river waters. Within 6 years while China managed to build a gigantic
dam, construction of dams which is state subject in India is stifled by green
sluggish administration, delay in environment clearances and protests by
anti-dam activists.
India and China signed MoU in 2008, 2010 and 2013 that
facilitated India to obtain data on the water levels, discharge and rainfall
twice a day from May to October from three hydrological station in Tibet for
which China charges 82 lakhs annually while India shares this data with
Pakistan and Bangladesh free of cost. Apart from pacts on hydrological data
sharing no agreement on water sharing was ever signed between the countries.
Earlier the Inter- Ministerial Expert Group (IMEG) on Brahmaputra indicated
that construction of dams on upper reaches will have impact on the downstream
region. They expressed concerns about existence of three dams-Jiexu, Zangmu and
Jiacha within 25km of each other and 550 km away from Indian border. As an
upper riparian state China is entitled to discuss its plans with the lower
riparian states- India and Bangladesh to allay fears. While a tripartite
water-sharing agreement between the three states can be best possible way to
address this issue, Chinese opacity, lack of transparency, reluctance to
accept, non-consultative approach beget more trepidations.
Aside the worrisome implications of damming by China, India
must emulate Chinese developmental patterns, the tardy connectivity network to
the frontier regions of India pale before the robust infrastructure of Tibet.
The hydel projects in Arunachal Pradesh failed to kick-start due to decrepit
road and rail links. Though China has assured that “nothing will be done
that will affect India’s interest” the moot point is whether India can trust
China considering its past history in the region. In spite of China’s
unilateral approach India as a lower riparian state must engage in a
constructive dialogue to evolve a frame-work for beneficial water sharing.
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