While the Indian mainstream media has been striving
tirelessly to espouse the irony of vendetta politics that stalled business in
parliament, the world media is abuzz with the robust diplomatic engagement
between India and Japan. The Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe was in India on
his third diplomatic visit to India to attend the ninth Indo-Japan Summit Talks.
The three day long visit is highly watched not only for the diplomatic engagement
between Asia’s large economies but also for the unusual personal chemistry
between the leaders. Both Modi and Abe touted as ardent nationalists, share
similar strategic and economic ambitions aims to consolidate regional
leadership. India and Japan are historically connected and have been inheritors
of Buddhism. Post World War II, war ravaged Japan surrendered to the Allied
Forces, restricted its future of course by the directives etched in its
pacifist constitution. India on the
other hand, in 1960’s rigorously advocated, followed the doctrine of
non-alignment and was averse to ally with any country. By 1970’s Japan emerged
as an economic giant while India stumbled in developmental race. Despite its
Look East Policy it failed to catch up with its East Asian peers. Post- Cold
war the geopolitical equations drastically changed. By late 1990’s China with
its enviable growth toppled the Asian leader Japan and evolved as an assertive
and unassailable economy. Burdened by burgeoning ageing population, Japan soon
slipped into recession and growth rates slid. Soon the destiny of Asia was
controlled by the US and China. India and Japan became insignificant.
India and Japan for long shied away from alliances are now
finding lost ground under the leadership of Modi and Abe who are keen on expanding
security cooperation. In lieu of growing military provocations of China, began Abe
incorporating amendments in its pacifist constitution since 2011.
Simultaneously, launched Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure with
$110 billion investment aimed to promote quality infrastructure across Asia, an
alternative to China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road) project of China. To
enhance the strategic dimension of Japan’s proactive financial assistance,
Japan has been competing with China. Recently it even clenched contract for
development of a port in Bangladesh. Of late smaller countries like Sri Lanka
have apprehensions about Chinese investments as the hidden interest rates are
extremely high. Japan by offering low
interest rates is jumping into the business of infrastructure development.
While Japan may not out compete China in infrastructure deals but the long term
experience and quality of Japan’s projects might soon find more takers. Abe is now
aggressively pitching for exports and a sustainable infrastructure development
to rejuvenate its economy.
As Modi aims to position India as a lead country as opposed to a marginal/
balancing player, it critically falls short of the resources and
capability. Moreover India is contained by China which has strategically
positioned itself in our immediate neighborhood by way of rapidly transforming
the infrastructure topology of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri
Lanka. India in order to improve connectivity within the country and beyond
must forge partnership with Tokyo. Japan’s new infrastructure promotion agenda
unlike its earlier developmental aid is strategically oriented and New Delhi is
now all set to seize this opportunity. In short, the unprecedented rise of
China indeed propelled India and Japan to enter into a realm of strong
strategic collaboration.
The Indo-Japan Summit talks have three common strategic
interests- investment in India’s infrastructure and financial development,
civil nuclear cooperation and defence ties. Amidst speculations of the extent
of cooperation in all three major areas of strategic interests and their
fructification, overwhelming support offered by Japan is a real booster for the
fledging Indian economy. Japan has played a key role in the economic resurgence
of several South East Countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South
Korea. Despite the traditional rivalry with China, Japan accounts for 11% of
total investments in Shanghai. Propitiously, ahead of his visit, Abe emphasized
that “strong India is in best interest of Japan, and strong Japan is in best
interest of India”. The unfolding of the partnership between India and
Japan is better complemented by their lacunae whereby deep pockets of Japan can
fuel infrastructure development projects in India. On the other hand, the
rapidly aging population of Japan is antithetical to the huge demographic
dividend of India. Thus coming together of these countries is win-win situation
for both.
Infrastructure and
Economic Development
The most important outcome of Abe’s visit has been
finalization of the high speed-bullet train built on the Shinkansen Model
between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, of length 505km at the cost of Rs 98,000 crores (
$12 billlion). The will drastically cut the travel time from 7hrs to 2hrs. As
per the terms of agreement, India has to repay the loan amount over a period of
50 years at an interest rate of 0.1% with a 10 year grace period. This deal
comes to India at a time when Japan has lost out to a contract to China worth
$5 billion in Indonesia. Besides transferring the relevant technology, Japan
indicated that all the equipment, machinery and components will be manufactured
in India. Japan has outcompeted China in investment pledges to India. While the
volume of Indo-Japanese trade is about 5% of its trade with China, Japan is
funneling $29 billion to India as infrastructure loans (includes high speed
train), finance and public investments in India. Japan has promised to provide
$3.31 billion as developmental assistance to support infrastructure in Arunachal
Pradesh, the vantage point for Chinese incursions, and another $1.65 billion
the following year.
Civil Nuclear
Cooperation
In a surprising development India and Japan reached a major
breakthrough on civil nuclear cooperation. Japan, the lone Asian country which
suffered the cataclysm of atomic bombs during the World War II is highly vocal
about its reservations towards nuclear use. In a significant move, Japan agreed
to make concessions for sealing nuclear energy cooperation with India owing to
its international credence as peaceful. Japan promised to reconsider its stance
and sought India’s clarification on its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear
tests. India will be the only non-signatory of NPT treaty towards which Japan
has softened its stand. The technical details will be finalized after Japan
Parliament endorses the pact. Civil nuclear pact will open up new vistas for
India’s aspirations of green energy. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) too issued a
waiver to India to carry on nuclear commerce following assurance of Pranab
Mukherjee of “voluntary, unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing” in 2008
before the NSG. This move will facilitate the entry of Japanese nuclear
industry hard hit by the Fukushima disaster into lucrative Indian markets.
With India announcing cuts of fossil fuel emissions and
slowly enhancing its renewable energy sources to 40%, nuclear energy is viable
option. India’s goal of clean energy will receive a lease for life through
civil nuclear cooperation.
Defence Ties
India and Japan signed an agreement on reciprocal protection
of military information transmitted to each other. With Japan easing its
military weapons purchase regime, US-2 amphibious aircraft made by ShinMaywa Industries
was anticipated. But the sale wasn’t finalized and instead an agreement was
reached that provides framework to increase defence and security cooperation.
The Joint Statement titled “India and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and
Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific
Region” both leaders have exalted the trust the parties have reposed in each
other. The oft used term of Asia- pacific was replaced by Indo-Pacific in the
statement invigorating the defence ties between the countries and highlighting
the concept of “Confluence of the two seas” (The Indian Ocean and The Pacific
Ocean) promoted by Abe. The document reflected the aspirations, strategic
vision and bi-lateral synergy of both countries. They pledged to work for the
peace and security in the region and hinted at the possibility of a grand
maritime cooperation. The Joint Statement also indicated Japan’s participation
in the Indo-US joint naval exercises Malabar, marking the emergence of a
formidable trilateral in the Indo-Pacific region. This alliance obviously glued
by the US has added significant heft to the Asia’s Pivot doctrine of the US. In
fact, this might soon be a quadrilateral with Australia keen on being part of
the naval exercises.
Moreover with India shedding its traditional ambiguity and
endorsing the freedom of navigation (FON), over flight and unimpeded navigation
through the contested South China Sea (SCS), India endorsed the Japan’s stand
on SCS. China can now hardly ignore the strategic engagement between India and
Japan. Both countries reiterated the need for effective implementation of the
2002 Declaration of the Conduct of the Parties in the SCS and early conclusion
of the negotiations to establish code of conduct in SCS. China took a strong
dig at this statement and alleged that the diplomatic engagement between India
and Japan is an attempt to contain China. Further they condemned terrorism in
all forms and vouched for Zero Tolerance towards terror groups and called for
effective implementation of the UNSC resolution 1267 and other resolution that
can eliminate safe havens of terror, disrupt terror networks, financing
channels and their cross-border movements. They affirmed the importance of
bringing the perpetrators of Mumbai blasts to justice.
Besides, being high on tangible outcomes, the Indo-Japan ties
have reached a new high on the soft diplomacy frontiers as well. In tune with
the eclectic welcome extended to Prime Minister on his bilateral visit to Japan
in 2014 at Kyoto, Varanasi has thrown away a celebratory reception to Abe. Bedecked
with flowers, resplendent with bright colors, invoking the spiritual
omniscience of Lord Vishwanath, both Prime Ministers attended the traditional
Ganga Aarti. The mystic hues of the Dashashwamedh Ghat amidst the ritualistic
chanting of the scared Sanskrit hymns exemplified the ancient traditional glory
and culture of the land. The unique camaraderie of Modi and Abe was in grand
display at the banks of Ganga who spend 40 minutes in rapt attention. Earlier in
2014 Modi has signed Partner City agreement between Varanasi and Kyoto and a
MoU The Japan International Cooperation Agency extended support in cleaning
Ganga under the Ganga Action plan to make it pollution free.
In all 16 deals were signed between countries to deepen
economic, strategic and defence cooperation and evocatively strengthen the Make
In India, Skills India and Digital India Initiatives. Modi announced
visa-on-arrival to Japanese citizens from March 1st 2016. Japan has
committed $34 billion investment in India during Modi’s visit in 2014 which are
now slowly pouring in. Strategists are now drawing similarities to China’s $46
billion investment in the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) to Japan’s
impeccable infrastructure development projects. US and Japan despite the
conflict of interests in the SCS and East China Sea have never undermined their
economic engagement with China. While China and US spar over FON, they have
reached milestone agreements over issues of climate and cyber security too. In
fact for the first time in November 2015, PLA hosted first Army to Army
dialogue with the US and charted out confidence building measures. India
supported China’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and an important
partner of New Development Bank (NBD) of BRICS. China has accepted the
membership of India into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). If India is
truly committed in overhauling its economy, it has to unequivocally develop
close ties with the top three economies of the World.
Abe’s visit witnessed the significant transformation of India
from a peripheral country to a lead player exuding the commitment in defending
its ties and ability to forge partnerships with friendly nations. Since 2000 India leadership consistently
invested in building ties with Japan and Modi gave the needed thrust
transforming the relations and intensifying bilateral cooperation. Eventually a
strong Indo-Japan alliance can checkmate Chinese hegemony and stabilize the
lopsided Asia’s balance of power. @ Copyrights reserved.
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