The unprecedented increase in the extreme weather events is
India is alarming. Chennai deluge is truly a rude wake-up call for the
complacent Indian bureaucratic machinery. The local government is caught
grappling under the burden of the unscrupulous urban planning, awful
preparedness to meet the impending disaster. The situation is further worsened
by the fury of the nature in the form on the record high rainfall. The
trickling collated rainfall data received by the state of Tamilnadu and Chennai
in particular is hair-rising.
Chennai deluge has brought to fore glaring deficiencies and
lapses in enforcing recommended practices of urban management. The city
received three times excess rainfall of 1218.6mm in the month of November than
the normal limits and the corporation has miserably failed in gearing up to the
storm warning. On December 1st alone Chennai recorded 374mm rainfall
exacerbating the flooding. Flooding of Chennai occurred in two phases. The
deluge began on November 8th when the low-lying areas like IT
corridor of Velachery, Pallikarani and Old Mahabalipuram Road (OBR) on the
periphery of city were flooded. But as torrential rains lashed the city, it was
completely marooned. Highlighting the grievous state of urban planning, creaking
public infrastructure. The city bore the brunt of the inept urban governance. Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) had forewarned that strong El Nino and
coincidence of various other factors might cause excess rainfall. Chennai is
one the fastest growing industrial hubs in the South India, but unplanned and
improper development of the city has brought the bustling place to a grinding
halt. Old revenue maps of Chennai indicated that its terrain was crisscrossed
by a vast network of water bodies. But in a bid to usher the city into
illustrious map of economic boom, several exemptions were waived off and the
catchment areas are offered to lure the enterprises to set up their business.
Thus, unrestrained constructions began to prop up across the length and breadth
of the city including the marshy suburbs. Sprawling gated communities have
eaten away many lakes and catchment areas. Even the drainage system was
completely choked with rainwater finding no place to go settled on the roads. Record
high rainfall exposed the disaster vulnerability of the city. Amidst the
disaster exemplary resilience, solidarity displayed by citizens of Chennai
during the disaster is truly commendable.
While India is ruthlessly branded as obstructionist at the
ongoing Paris Climate Summit for its sustained campaign on the developed
countries to cut their GHG (Green House Gases) emissions, India’s concerns
about climate change are genuine and compelling. India of late has become victim
of extreme weather events, a fall out of Climate change. A series of major
natural calamities in the past decade have severely dented the hard earned
bounties of Indian economy. The record high rainfall of 944 mm on June 26th
2005 in Mumbai has brought the Maximum City to its knees. Around 5000 people
were killed in all and lives of 20 million were affected and entailed financial
losses of 5000 crores. This was followed by Cyclone Aila in 2009 that struck West
Bengal wherein endangered Tiger species submerged in Sunderbans. In August
2010, Ladakh region, known to receive scant rainfall witnessed cloudbursts
causing incessant rains and landslides resulting in huge losses to life and
property. In 2013, India was stuck by the worst calamity ever wherein the
states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were affected.
Altogether the states received 385.1 mm rainfall in 18 days leading to severe
landslides in the hilly terrains, overflowing rivers and intense flooding.
According to unofficial reports, over 10,000 people were reported to be killed
and caused irreparable damage to fragile ecosystem of the Himalayan terrain.
Property worth 1000 crores was lost and a whopping 75lakh hectares of
agricultural lands were badly affected. In September 2014, Jammu and Kashmir received
558 mm rainfall over a week, increased commercial activities, embankments of
rivers and indiscriminate cutting of forests have aggravated the crisis paralyzing
entire state machinery. The financial losses of J&K were pegged at 5700
crores. Even before India could heave a sigh of relief, extremely severe
cyclonic storm Hudhud, a tropical cyclone hit the coastal districts of Andhra
Pradesh causing extensive damage to the tune of 21,908 crores. Over the
past 14 years, India has faced 131 instances of major flooding, 21 instances of
hot and cold waves and several instances of drought. In fact drought conditions
of past years took severe toll on the food grain production leading to suicides
of farmers and escalation of prices of pulses. The characteristic erratic
rainfalls witnessed in recent years across different parts of India has not
only reduced crop yields but also intensified pest attacks. By and large these
phenomenal losses have stunted the economic trajectory of the country and rich
dividends of development are lost.
Climate models and statistical approach studies used by NASA
too have predicted that in future monsoons in India will become more
erratic. An independent study was
carried out by IIM Ahmedabad, IIT Gandhinagar and the Council of Energy,
Environment and Water (CEEW) to assess climate changes in India and to identify
financial & technological knowledge gaps in adaptation. The report titled Climate Change and India Adaptation Gap
(2015)- A preliminary assessment, released two days back indicated that eastern
parts of India are likely to receive more amounts of rainfall, central India is
at the risk of becoming drought prone and that average night temperatures are
likely to increase by 1-1.5 degrees over next 30 years. Several parts of India
are close to 2-degree rise in temperature. These changes have already resulted
in annual loss of $5-6 billion and by the year 2030 these might rise of $360
billion. India last year has spent about 4.9% of its GDP on adaptation and by
2030 this will increase to 5.4%. Unfortunately, as India leaps towards
excessive rainfall and increasing number of hot days and reducing number of
crop growing days, yields will drastically come down. With droughts expected to
loom large in central India water stress will increase. Thus India is likely to
brace the double whammy of decreased water availability and exacerbated
malnutrition. Incidentally the erratic rainfall and climate change in Punjab
led to severe pest infestation which spiraled into an unrest sending jitters
across India. The water stress and impending drought in Central is believed has
fuelled the rise in Maoist movement. The debilitating effects of climate change
are felt across the globe. Rise in sea-levels and inundation of the fertile
coastal lands in Bangladesh has triggered the wave of migration leading to an
internal calumny. In part, the Arab Spring in the Middle East was heralded by
rising food prices and the initial trigger for the Syrian crisis was food and
water shortages.
The collated data of losses caused by the extreme weather
conditions in India indicated that biggest losses were coming from floods which
is $51 billion. Ironically despite being ravaged by worst natural
calamities India miserably failed in containing the damages. Apart from the National Adaptation Fund, India has 21 government
schemes that are linked to climate change adaptation. Though budgetary
commitment towards adaptation measures have increased consistently, it falls
short of the cumulative requirement. As severity of extreme weather events
increases, the commensurate losses would increase in terms of allocating extra
funds towards agriculture, revamping public health sector, infrastructure and
water resources.
Till now India’s approach towards climate change has been
nugatory, there are serious adaptation gaps. In order to contain the losses
smart solutions like flood proofing, floating agricultural systems,
desalination plants, electric vehicles and smart grids must be quickly imported
from the west and adopted. Robust long term measures like bridging knowledge
gaps and capacity building must be developed on war footing basis. By 2030, the
adaptation gaps cumulatively will increase to $1 trillion. To fill the
technology gaps, India and other developing countries are pitching hard for the
Green Climate Fund, $100 billion a year from 2020 at the Paris Summit. But
sadly, developed countries have so far pledged a measly $10 billion. Whatever
be the outcome of the COP-21 it is amply clear that India is going to be hit
hard by climate change. But if India fails to get fair share at the Paris
Summit, it be hard-crushed for finances too.
On the basis of the per capita carbon emission India are
fairly low and contributes to 6% of the World’s emissions. India on its part
has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), accordingly
it will reduce 30-35% of emission intensity by 2030 when compared to the 2005
levels. But India’s commitments are considered less since its GDP growth is
expected to rise dramatically and hence majority of its emissions are yet to
come. Additionally India’s economy is majorly coal-based; hydro and nuclear
power are still largely untapped. It is time, India makes crucial choice about
its development plans. If India intends to follow China’s path of economic
trajectory with manufacturing as its key enterprise India will soon be reeling
under the burden of spiraling emissions. Alternatively it can mitigate climate
change and scale economy by recalibrating its development strategy and emerging
as knowledge superpower. May it is time to reenergize its intellectual pool,
revive and revitalize the National Innovation Foundation (NIF). In fact India
should consider softer industrialization like pioneering in computer
programming, research and development, genomics, pharmaceuticals, handicrafts,
jewelry making, gem cutting & polishing, textiles, food processing, etc. These on long term can evade the
disastrous effects of GHC emissions and can the deleterious effects of climate
change in long term.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations
(IPCC) in its report warned India to view a natural disaster not as a
standalone event of nature’s fury but to discern the role played by the
complacent development policies that magnify the devastation in the event of
such calamities. The effects of climate change are imminent and India can no
longer afford to have an Ostrich like approach to climate change. Scientific
data of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology indicates that events with
high rainfall (more than 100mm per day) and very heavy rainfall (more than 150
mm) have been on a rise while moderate events (5-100mm) have reduced. Even the
IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that India will get more rainfall in
less number of days and that extreme precipitation during monsoon would also
increase. All these tragedies indicate that India is no longer impenetrable to
climate changes.
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