The silent meeting between the NSA’s of India and Pakistan on
December 6th accompanied by their foreign secretaries away from the
pandemonium of media signaled emergence of India’s renewed foreign policy strategy.
Meeting of NSA’s at a neutral move away from the high-decibel media has raised
several eyebrows. This diplomatic move, an outcome of a handshake and brief
meeting that lasted for 160 seconds between the Prime Ministers of both
countries along the sidelines of Paris Climate Summit. Though no ground
breaking outcomes were expected from a dialogue between the NSAs, a prolonged
lull in the diplomatic engagement with Pakistan is also not recommended either.
But a willingness to interact signified India’s interest to engage with
Pakistan. Modi’s diplomatic astuteness, absence of coherent and cogent policy
towards Pakistan has been under scanner for a while. In the past 18 months, NSA
talks were postponed twice-once in August 2014 when Pakistan insisted on having
Hurriyat as the third party and a year later when Pakistan persisted on a
discussion about J&K while India was intent on sticking to mutually agreed
agenda at Ufa.
In line with India’s reconciliation, Sushma Swaraj has
travelled to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia- Istanbul process (HOP-IP),
a conference aimed at collectively addressing the prospect of regional
cooperation to stabilize war-torn Afghanistan. Heart of Asia was launched in
2011 and includes member countries- Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India,
Iran, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and the UAE. It is supported by 16 other
countries which include the US, UK, Japan, France, Egypt and Germany and 12
regional and international organizations like the UN, SAARC, SCO, NATO and OIC.
The HOP-IP conference was held in Istanbul, Turkey in 2011 and the process gets
the name from it. Consecutive editions were held at Kabul in 2012, Alamty in
2013 and at Beijing in 2014. The fifth edition of the Heart of Asia co-chaired
by Pakistan’s Sartaz Aziz and Afghanistan foreign affairs minister Salahauddin
Rabbani announced a joint Islamabad Declaration at the conference. The
declaration affirmed that parties will respect each other’s sovereignty,
territorial integrity, unity, political independence and follow principles of
non-intervention in the internal affairs. In her address at the conference attended
by ministers and high-level delegates from 16 countries Swaraj reiterated
India’s interest in dealing with the burgeoning menace of terrorism that is steadily
penetrating into South Asia and stressed the need for “unclogging the arteries”.
In a veiled reference she took a dig at the interventionist role of Pakistan-
in stopping transit of goods from India to Afghanistan through its territory and
for blocking consensus on the SAARC Motor Vehicle agreement at Khatmandu. She
hinted that effective transit arrangements can directly benefit the Heart of
Asia, Afghanistan and formally indicated India’s readiness for a join
Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement. India will be holding the
Heart of Asia conference at New Delhi in 2016.
In Islamabad, Swaraj had a formal hour-long discussions on
Indo-Pak affairs with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and met Sartaz Aziz, advisor
to Pakistan government on national security and foreign policy. On 9th
December, the concluding day of Conference, Swaraj at the joint press conference
announced restart of newly christened “Comprehensive bilateral dialogue”. The
joint statement which condemned terrorism resolved to cooperate on eliminating
the same and witnessed assurances by Pakistan to complete Mumbai trials at the
earliest. The Comprehensive Dialogue will include issues of peace and security,
confidence building measures (CBMs), J&K, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar
Barrage/Tullbull Navigation project, economic and commercial cooperation,
counter-terrorism, narcotics control, religious tourism, people-to-people
exchange and humanitarian issues. In continuum the first composite dialogue
between the foreign secretaries is scheduled to be held in January, 2016. With
Prime Minister Modi set to visit Islamabad for SAARC conference in 2016,
resumption of talks rejuvenated new hopes of a palpable peace process between
the countries.
It is relevant to contemplate what has really changed between
the September 2015 and now resulting in a sudden turn of events. Firstly, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was
cornered by the opposition in August 2014 who literally brought the national
administration to knees on charges of alleged irregularities in elections. Army
has come to Sharif’s rescue on the condition that Sharif would part away with
his control over Pakistan’s foreign policy. Prime Minister Sharif struck a deal
with the Army wherein Army will have supreme command over foreign policy and
Sharif would look after the civil administration, economic and financial
aspects of Pakistan. Henceforth Rawalpindi has become official headquarters for
foreign policy related transactions and engagements. Consequently any
engagement with Islamabad was literally null and void until it obtained green
signal from General Raheel Sharif of military. Nawaz Sharif is mere nominal
head. Congruently post August 2014 there has been a perceptible change in
Pakistan, whereby military crushed Pakistani Talibans and the rebellion in
North Waziristan with an iron hand. Several military courts were also set up
and those convicted were mercilessly executed leading to record low civilian
casualties. These audacious efforts of General Sharif earned him great respect
among civilians. Further he scuttled terror strikes including the one by
Pakistani Taliban on the army camp located on the outskirts of Karachi in
September 2015. Steadily military has become invincible. General Sharif handpicked
Lt Gen Naseer Khan Jangua, his close confidante who recently retired from his
last assignment in Balochistan and appointed him as National Security Advisor
(NSA). It is no secret that Pakistan civilian government was always guided by
military. Previously Prime Ministers chose their close confidantes for the post
of NSA, currently military establishment directly appointed its former official
for the post. Bilateral dialogue earlier involved talks with powerless, civilian
regime but during the current round of talks India spoke directly with military.
The NSA talks at Bangkok opened up new vistas where our top-notch operations
man, Ajit Doval spoke to his counterpart with relative ease, as both were
well-versed with ground realities.
Secondly, Post Paris terror strikes, there has been renewed
focus on burgeoning threat of terrorism across the globe. Pakistan, known to be
terror haven of South Asia is on radar now. International community is
fervently hoping for a strategic engagement between the two nuclear countries.
Pakistan is under a pressure to ascertain its commitment towards regional
peace. This in part, is reason for its proactive commitment for peace talks
between Talibans and Afghan government even. Modi government had initially
aggressively engaged with Pakistan but was forced to adopt a hard stance
following a spurt in ceasefire violations across LoC and on Pakistan’s
insistence of having Hurriyat as the third party at the table. Hence talks were
suspended and no progress could be made. Modi’s greatest push to foreign policy
was forlorn, if it failed to evolve an effective dialogue mechanism with
Pakistan. Moreover, Washington and
Beijing has been keenly supporting peace process between the two countries. Third,
it is learnt that Nawaz Sharif has promised to expedite the trial of Zakiur
Rehman Lakhvi and other suspects involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Modi who
is keen on engaging with Pakistan in fact made the first moves and Pakistan
responded reciprocally culminating in a meeting between NSAs at Bangkok.
Away from media glare, Modi before his unscheduled handshake
with Sharif sent his right hand man Ajit Doval to speak with Indian High
Commissioner Abdul Basit, setting ground for peace talks. The joint statement
of NSAs issued following the four and half hours talks “covered peace and
security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir and other issues, including tranquility
across LoC”. The agenda of NSA was received positively by both countries with
terrorism batted by India and Jammu and Kashmir, a core issue emphasized by
Pakistan were addressed. Disagreement over these contentious issues stalled the
peace process till now. Moreover it is pursuant to India’s choice of not having
any third party on the table.
In the last 18 months, Modi has emphatically projected India
as a lead player in the South Asia and countries like UK, Germany and France
have started to view India as a counter-balance to growing heft of China. US is
inclined for a reconciliation between India and Pakistan as it is concerned
about its interests in Afghanistan and steadily declining security.
Significantly in a move to operationalize its strategic partnership agreement
of 2011 with Afghanistan, India is now set to deliver four Mi-25 attack helicopters
by January 2016. This is a marked departure from India’s previous policy of
refusal to deliver lethal weaponry. India has now offered to supply military
transport vehicles and agreed to train 1000 Afghan security personnel in India
every year. Enamored by Pakistan’s assurances of facilitating peace talks with
Talibans, Afghan President Abdul Ghani has initially veered towards Pakistan at
the cost of antagonizing India. But unabated terror attacks from across the
Pakistan territory angered the Afghan disposition which reached out to India
seeking an upgrade in defence ties. Stiffened stance of Modi towards terrorism
and his all-out campaign for global action against terrorism would be of little
value if India fails to resolve the issue with its immediate neighbor.
By holding talks at a neutral venue away from high-decibel
media Indo-Pak talks critically evoked less tyrannical voices. Reliable sources
have indicated that NSA talks have ended on a positive note and paved way for
Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad. Indian foreign minister last visited
Pakistan in 2012.
Composite dialogue between India and Pakistan was first
started in 1997 by Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and his counterpart Nawaz Sharif
who laid a frame-work for discussions on issues of mutual concern. Following
the nuclear tests, the talks were stalled in 1998 and resumed again after the Lahore
Declaration in 1998 when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee travelled to
Lahore on bus. In 1999 sabotaging the peace process, Pakistan stealthily
infiltrated militants in civilian disguise leading to Kargil war. The dialogue
process was again disrupted and resumed again at the fag-end of NDA regime in
January 2004. The talks continued till November 2008 and abruptly ended again, due
to the dastardly Mumbai attacks. Man Mohan Singh under UPA initiated the talks
under a new name- Resumed Dialogue in 2011 and again these were stalled in 2012
following beheading of an Indian Soldier along the LoC. Thus far, Indo-Pak
dialogue hasn’t been consistent and followed a regular pattern of start and stop.
An unpredictabe pattern of belligerence displayed by Pakistan has been the
reason behind stalling of peace process. Pakistan’s foreign policy towards
India has been capricious and hence Indian strategists warn government to be
“cautiously optimistic”. Indeed few analysts lamented the strategic U-turn of
Modi government as unabated unprovoked firings and infiltrations continue to
loom over the LoC. Indeed Indo-Pak observers are right in their own way in
condemning the new stance of the government, since Pakistan as of now hasn’t
promised to abide by cease violations, controlled the infiltration bids or
prevailed on the perpetrators of the 26/11. In short, with a colossal history
of betrayal looming large, sustenance of a peace process with Pakistan is still
a million dollar question. Despite the troubled past and the intransigent
military machinery guiding Pakistan India must move on by diplomatically
engaging Pakistan. While the World has isolated Pakistan, because of its
strategic geographic location and its imminent influence on the regional peace
and security India should take refuge in peace process. Simultaneously, it be
equipped with arsenal other than diplomacy to face the challenges posed by
Pakistan.
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