Double Standards or Realpolitik? U.S. Playbook on Nuclear Brinkmanship Part 1

Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion on June 13^th, the Middle East has been on the brink. Israeli fighter jets striking deep into the Iranian territory attacked nuclear facilities, missile strikes and the senior leadership. Drawing the first blood, Israel set Iran into a tizzy by systematically eliminating the senior ranks of military leaders and nuclear scientists.

Since the October 7^th Hamas terror attack, Israel has clinically neutralised Iranian proxies and reduced its sway. Through a string of assassinations, including Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, Israel brought Hamas and Hezbollah to their knees. Iran’s Islamic regime wields great influence in Lebanon, Syria and has a destabilising effect on Yemen and Iraq. Hezbollah’s losses and the fall of the Assad regime diminished Iran’s power and influence in the region and significantly weakened Iran’s axis of resistance.

Israel and Iran have been strategic collaborators and friends before the radical Islamic ideology engulfed and roiled the relations. Iran transitioned to an Islamic regime with the takeover by the Ayatollahs in 1979. The Iranian revolution ushered the country into an Islamic ambit. Israel’s relations with Iran under the Pahlavi dynasty were friendly. Iran was among the second major-Muslim country after Turkey to recognise the Jewish State following its founding in 1948. Iran, along with India and Yugoslavia, was part of the special UN committee formed to formulate a future course for Palestine and voted against the UN’s partition plan for Palestine.

Iran saw Israel as a key partner to counter the rising Arab nationalism and to maintain positive relations with the West. The ties took a brief hit under Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh in 1951, who wanted to nationalise the oil and expel the British.  Following his ouster and the installation of the Shah in 1953, the ties blossomed, and countries exchanged ambassadors.

As a part of the strategic ‘Periphery Doctrine’,  Israel forged alliances with non-Arab states to counter hostile neighbours. In 1958, Israel, Turkey and Iran formed the “Alliance of Periphery” and solidified the “Trident” pact- an agreement encompassing intelligence sharing, economic cooperation and arms trade. Indeed, Mossad and the Iranian intelligence agency SAVAK collaborated closely, and Israel provided extensive technical support to help develop Iran’s military-industrial infrastructure.

During the crippling Arab boycott and oil embargo, Iran emerged a major oil supplier to Israel helping Israel to circumvent the crisis. In return, Israel provided technological and agricultural assistance. Both countries jointly constructed a pipeline and supplied oil to Europe. Israel supported Iran’s covert efforts to assist the Kurdish separatists in Iraq.

The 1979 overthrow of the Shah marked Iran’s transformation into an Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The new clerical regime redefined Iran’s national identity around religiously driven anti-Zionism, severing decades of covert cooperation with Israel. In response, Israel shut down its embassy in Tehran, which was soon replaced by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) mission. This dramatic realignment also prompted an exodus of many Iranian Jews, who fled the country amid rising hostility and uncertainty.

Denouncing the US as “the Big Satan” and Israel as “Little Satan”, the clerical regime championed the Palestinian issue. The jihadi roadmap for the Islamic regime can be traced to the Khomeini’s “The Little Green Book” akin to the Mao Zedong’s “The Little Red Book”.

Transforming the Palestinian cause into an Islamic cause, Khomeini declared every last Friday of Ramadan as Quds Day (Jerusalem is called al-Quds in Arabic), and held rallies across Iran in support of Palestine to brandish Iran’s Islamic credentials. The larger idea was to put the Arab countries allied to the US on the defensive. But through the 1980s, Israel considered Saddam Hussein of Iraq a greater threat than Khomeini’s Iran. Israel supplied military equipment to Iran during the long wars with Iraq and served as a conduit for US weapons to Iran during the Iran-Contra affair.

As per CIA reports, contrary to American assessment, Israel believed Iran could be an important partner in promoting its interests in the region and eventually hoped that it could play a role in facilitating rapprochement between the US and Iran. Ironically, Khamenini portrayed Israel as a ‘usurper Zionist regime’; a tool of American imperialism.

At the First Islamic Conference on December 4^th, 1990, Khamenei expounded the goal of liberating Palestine, “Regarding, the Palestine issue, the problem is taking back Palestine, which means disappearance of Israel. There is no difference between the occupied territories before and after [the Arab-Israeli war of] 1967. Every inch of Palestinian land is an inch of Palestinians’ home. Any entity ruling Palestine is illegitimate unless it is Islamic and by Palestinians. Our position is what our late Imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) said, “Israel must disappear”. The Jews of Palestine can live there if they accept the Islamic government there. We are not against Jews. The issue is the illegal ownership of Muslims’ homes”¹.

Reiterating support for a new Palestine government, Khamenini in August 1991, said, “Solving the Palestinian problem entails destroying and eliminating the illegitimate government there, so that the true owners [of the land] can form a new government; Muslims, Christians, and Jews can live side by side. . . Our view regarding the Palestine issue is clear. We believe the solution is destroying the Israeli regime. Forty years have passed [since establishment of the state of Israel], and if another forty years passes, Israel must disappear, and will”².

Around the same time, Iran nurtured Hezbollah in Lebanon, which bombed a Jewish community centre and the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992. Khamenini began backing the Islamist jihadi groups like Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihadi groups stating, “The United States cannot solve the Palestinian problem to its own liking. The issue is like a bone choking them and, God willing, with Israel’s disappearance will be solved”². This pathological hatred reached a crescendo with the election of a hardliner, President Ahmadinejad, in 2005, who hosted the Holocaust Denial Conference in Tehran. This irrevocably damaged Iran-Israel relations.

In 1990s, Israel-Iran secret collaboration ended after Israel got a whiff of Iran’s nuclear pursuits. Iran’s nuclear program, which began under the Pahlavi dynasty, hit a pause during the Iranian revolution. But it secretly continued to pursue the program under the codename AMAD project. After the first reports of a nuclear enrichment centre surfaced in 2003, facing the prospect of censure, Iran agreed to sign the Tehran Agreement with Britain, France and Germany to suspend enrichment.

However, huge inconsistencies uncovered by the IAEA led to the imposition of sanctions by the UNSC in 2006. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Agreement between P (5+1) and Iran in 2015 provided limited relief after Iran agreed to cap enrichment at 3.7%.

While publicly asserting its nuclear plan served civilian use, appearing to uphold commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Additional  Protocols, Iran covertly pursued enrichment activities. In 2018, a covert Mossad operation uncovered blueprints detailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, revealing undisclosed weapons-related facilities. Contending that the checks under the JCPOA as inadequate, then President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA.

From 2006, the covert hostilities escalated significantly as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Forces (IRGC) provided substantial backing to Hezbollah’s resistance against Israel. In response, Israel intensified cyber warfare against the Iranian nuclear programme. By early  2010s, amid the Arab Spring upheaval, Iran consolidated its ‘Axis of Resistance’ to strangulate Israel. The threat from the Ayatollah regime is real and undeniable, and the October 7 attacks have reinforced the same.

The IAEA reports from 2022 have consistently reported a steady increase in the Iranian stockpile of enriched Uranium. The latest IAEA report of May 2025 notes an expanded production of 60% enriched Uranium of 408 kg below the weapons-grade. This quantity places Iran perilously close to the nuclear threshold, raising international concerns should the trend continue unchecked.

On June 12, 2025, the IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years³, and the board voted to censure Iran. In response, Iran announced it would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility⁴. Hours later, Israel launched strikes on Iran. Considering Israel’s record of taking down Iraq’s Osirak in 1981 and Syria’s putative nuclear facility in the Deir ez-Zor region in 2007, the air strikes on Iran aren’t unprecedented but just a continuation of a pattern.

Copyrights Reserved.

PM Modi’s Historic Visit to Croatia Opens a Fresh Chapter in Indian Diplomacy

Given its timeless antiquity, India has been a fount of wisdom and knowledge and a melting pot of cultures. In its long illustrious cilivisational journey, India attracted people from far and wide and engaged extensively with different societies. But centuries of invasions and colonisation disrupted the cultural and social fabric of this self-sustaining, prosperous civilisation. However, even after independence, internalising a sense of inferiority, attempting to fit into the Western rubric, Indian leadership undervalued its rich cultural heritage.

The vestige of colonial hangover lingeringly impacted its worldview. Since assuming power in 2014, PM Modi has reshaped foreign policy with Indian values and energised it. Wearing his identity proudly on his sleeves, PM Modi boosted Indian pride. This reimagination of foreign relations is mirrored in India’s new confidence to forge relationships on the strength of its civilisational connection as well.

Adeptly deploying soft power and economic influence, India is now widening engagement with the comity of nations. PM Modi’s landmark visit to Croatia rightly fits into the new paradigm of his transformational agenda of foreign policy.

After wrapping official visits to Cyprus and Canada, in the last leg of a three-nation trip, PM Modi headed for Croatia on June 18, the first-ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the Balkan nation. Extending a rousing welcome, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic received PM Modi at the airport. Other than shared values of democracy, pluralism and the rule of law, marked cultural resonance sets India-Croatian relations on a unique pedestal.

After establishing diplomatic ties in 1992, countries witnessed several high-level leadership visits including President Ramnath Kovind’s state visit in 2019 and EAM Jaishankar’s trip in 2021. PM Modi met his Croatian counterpart on the sidelines of COP26 at Glasgow in 2023.

PM Modi’s pioneering visit to Croatia comes months after the first-ever European Union College of Commissioners visit to India, which included a delegate from Croatia. In 2023, during Croatian Foreign Minister Radman’s visit to India to attend the Raisina Dialogue, countries exchanged an MoU on defence cooperation. Taking this forward, PM Modi advocated a ‘Defence Cooperation Plan’ for long-term cooperation in defence sector including seeking opportunities for defence collaboration, training and military exchanges.

In the period of the 1970s and 1980s, India had strong trade relations with Yugoslavia and even purchased ships from Yugoslavia. Croatia, which was then part of Yugoslavia, accounted for two-thirds of the trade. Keen on strengthening cooperation in ship building, reinvoking the past ties, PM Modi invited Croatian companies to explore opportunities in port modernisation, coastal-zone development and participate in India’s multi-modal connectivity initiative, SAGARMALA.

Croatia is an integral part of the European Union’s meticulously planned Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). Strategically located on the Adriatic Sea, the Croatian ports of Rijeka, Split and Ploce have been the vital nodes for European exports. Situated at the intersection of key European transport corridors, Croatia is a gateway to Central and Eastern Europe.

Croatia is also part of the 12-nation Three Sea Initiative (TSI) that aims to promote economic cooperation in energy, transport and communication infrastructure. Comprising nations lying along the north-south axis from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea to the Black Sea, the initiative fosters interconnectedness. Croatia hosted the initiative’s inaugural summit at Dubrovnik in 2016.

Initially enthused by the prospect of trans-continental connectivity opportunities of China’s BRI, Croatia invited Beijing to the inaugural summit of TSI.  However, Croatia’s enthusiasm soon dissipated, giving way to caution and scepticism. Given India’s democratic credentials and transparent functioning, IMEC can emerge as a pragmatic choice for Croatia. Countries like Italy, France, Greece, Germany and the EU are weighing in to be part of IMEC. Considering the maritime traditions, leaders acknowledged the need for improving connectivity by expanding cooperation in ports, shipping domains, including through IMEC.

Recognising the importance of supply chain resilience, leaders affirmed to boost bilateral trade worth $515 million, through greater business-to-business collaboration, joint ventures and investment partnerships and innovation.

To foster collaboration and innovation partnerships, countries plan to strengthen the India-Croatia Startup Bridge launched in December 2021. PM Modi suggested that Croatia leverage the skilled talent of India and expedite the mobility partnership agreement.

To inject fresh impetus into the bilateral partnership, countries exchanged four MoUs- cooperation in agriculture and allied sectors; cooperation in science and technology; a cultural exchange program; and an MOU on Hindi chair at the University of Zagreb. India has offered to share space expertise with Croatia.

Countries are exploring opportunities for cooperation in digitalisation, AI, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, tourism, hospitality, health care, cybersecurity and machine learning.

Being part of NATO and as the youngest member of the EU, Croatia wields immense influence way beyond its size. Its position in the European institutions can be valuable in terms of advocating Indian interests during decision-making. Croatia can play an important role in furthering the early conclusion of the India-EU FTA and advancing the India-EU strategic partnership. 

Yoga and Ayurveda are very popular in Croatia. The Department of Indology of the University of Zagreb, functioning for the past 60 years with a dedicated Sanskrit Chair, has been doing commendable work in Indology. Traditional Ratha Yatra has been carried out in Zagreb downtown since 2016. The Inter-University Centre of Dubrovnik was the venue for the 7^th International Vedic Workshop. India and Croatia have close cultural links dating back several centuries.

Burgeoning interest in Indic-Oriented societies like The Art of Living, ISKCON, Bhakti Marga and Yoga in Daily Life are bringing both nations closer. Underscoring the close cultural connections PM Plenkovic has gifted the first printed Sanskrit grammar book in 1790 written by Ivan Filip Vezdin to PM Modi.

Quick succession of conflicts, intense contestations across different theatres and reigning uncertainty are forcing countries to rapidly reconfigure partnerships. Trump’s tariff regime, threat of supply chain disruptions have compelled the EU to seek new markets, investment opportunities and derisk from China. Complementing Europe’s attempts to diversify trade, India is engaging in intensive deliberations on market access and tariffs. Having finalised the FTA with the UK, India and the EU have fast-tracked the FTA negotiations. Raring to conclude FTA with the EU by the end of this year, EAM Jaishankar has embarked on a 7-day visit to France and Belgium. India is pulling out all stops to strengthen ties with the EU and operationalise IMEC for seamless connectivity.

In the wake of Operation Sindoor, PM Modi’s trip to Europe to attend the Nordic Summit and travel to Croatia was cancelled. PM Modi’s landmark visit to Croatia is an attempt to resurrect the cultural and trade ties, which languished due to the political apathy and were roiled by scandals of the previous leadership. The visit marks an important milestone in India’s European engagement.

@ Copyrights Reserved.

India- Cyprus Bonhomie: A Strategic Mediterranean Reset

The rising global stature of a country must be reflected in its confident diplomatic outreach. An unambiguous foreign policy and assertive geopolitical signalling can forewarn the hostile actors of the red lines.  The 88-hour-long Operation Sindoor has been a watershed moment for India regarding counter-terrorism and strategic doctrine. The lessons from the operation provided a strategic clarity, prodding India to offset the strategic encirclement of the Pakistan-Turkey axis. PM Modi’s Cyprus visit is an important strategic signal in itself.

On his first leg of the three-nation visit, PM Modi landed at Nicosia on June 15^th. This marks the third visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the island, the first being Indira Gandhi’s visit in 1983. Atal Bihari Vajpayee travelled to Cyprus in 2002.

Reimagining and reshaping Turkey as a 21st-century Caliphate, Erdogan has been aiding radical Islamic entities like Hezbollah, Hamas and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Backing Pakistan perfectly aligned with his ideological agenda. Turkey’s strong support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, both militarily and diplomatically and Erdogan’s reckless needling of India with references to the Kashmir issue at international platforms have confirmed Ankara’s hostility towards India. Recent reports of Turkish intelligence agencies financially backing Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami have underscored Turkey’s animosity.

Aware of Turkey’s muscular strategic moves aimed at India, New Delhi has been swiftly tightening ties with its regional neighbours- Armenia, Egypt and Greece. PM Modi’s Cyprus visit is part of India’s strategic messaging to Turkey.

Countering muscular moves with studied diplomacy, India has been swiftly tightening defence cooperation with Turkey’s rivals in the region—Armenia, Egypt, Greece, and now Cyprus. PM Modi’s first overseas destination to Cyprus post-Operation Sindoor is a deft signal to Turkey.

India and Cyprus relations, anchored in anti-colonial struggles and the Non-Aligned Movement, had cordial links rooted in trust. Cyprus supported India during the 1962 Chinese aggression, while India rushed humanitarian supplies as the country battled through conflicts between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots in 1964. Ever since, India has been part of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and has been a dependable partner of Cyprus.

India has flourishing trade with Cyprus, valued at $137 million (2023-24). Cyprus is among the top 10 sources of investment for India, with cumulative investments of $15 billion. The advanced financial sector services of the island and the revision of the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) in 2016 had created a favourable investment climate.

 Getting ready to assume the presidency of the EU Council in early 2026, Cyprus can play a great role in the India-EU FTA and strategic partnership. India and the EU are at the cusp of finalising the FTA, and strong relations with Cyprus can help New Delhi secure the economic engagement. In February, Euro Bank of Cyprus opened a representative branch in Mumbai, serving as a gateway for Indian businesses in Cyprus.

Straddling Asia, Europe and Africa, Cyprus occupies a geographic sweet spot, making it an ideal logistical hub. Cyprus is the entry point for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Connectivity (IMEC) trade route. India is actively exploring the prospect of increasing shipping presence on the island.

In a warm gesture, Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides received PM Modi at the airport. Leaders addressed the Cyprus–India Business Round Table on Advancing a Strategic Economic Partnership at Limassol and welcomed the signing of two MoUs, including plans to launch UPI for cross border payments and cooperation between GIFT City and Cyprus Stock Exchange.

Extending a ceremonial welcome to PM Modi at the Presidential Palace, leaders held bilateral talks on bilateral, regional and global issues. Leaders “expressed concern” over the Israel-Iran war and conflicts in Asia and Europe, and they agreed that “this is not an era of war”. Both leaders strongly condemned terrorism and violent extremism. Calling for expeditious finalisation and adoption of the  Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) within the UN framework, Cyprus strongly condemned the Pahalgam attack.

India reaffirmed its unwavering support for the “independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of the Republic of Cyprus”. Cyprus was partitioned following Turkey’s invasion in 1974. Turkey invaded Cyprus in response to a Greek junta military coup’s attempt to annexe the island. Since the attack, Turkey has evicted Greek Cypriots, continued to occupy 37% of the north eastern region of the island. Even after the Greek Cypriot majority formed a legitimate, internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus, Turkey refused to withdraw its military troops from Northern Cyprus.

 Soon, Turkish Cypriots migrated to the region, established their claims and declared independence in 1983. They assumed the name of the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC). Pakistan and Bangladesh recognised the TRNC just days after its independence. Following UNSC resolution 541, which declared North’s independence “legally invalid”, both countries revoked their recognition. Pakistan was the lone country to have voted in favour of the resolution. TNRC is currently recognised by Turkey, with whom it exchanges diplomats.

On his visit to Turkey post-Pahalgam attack, Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced his support for TRNC. TRNC continues to occupy a high place in Turkey’s agenda, which Pakistan unfailing continues to support.

India’s ties with Cyprus were never transactional. Indian Military legends like Lt. Gen. P.S. Gyani, Lt. Gen. Dewan Prem Chand and Gen. K.S. Thimayya have UN peacekeeping missions on the island. Cyprus indeed named a street after Thimayya, who died in 1965 while serving (UNFICYP) and issued a commemorative stamp in his memory in 1966. India’s support to Cyprus has been legendary.

As deft message to Turkey from the Cyprus Buffer Zone/ Green Line, amid foreboding hostilities, PM Modi with President Christodoulides by his side, strongly pitched for the reunification of Cyprus. The Joint Statement also stated, “Cyprus and India expressed their strong commitment to the resumption of UN-facilitated efforts to achieve a comprehensive and lasting settlement of the Cyprus Question on the basis of a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality, in accordance with the agreed UN framework and the relevant United Nations Security Council Resolutions”.

After the discovery of gas deposits in the Levant basin of the Eastern Mediterranean region - Greece, Israel, and Cyprus sealed a deal in January 2020 to build a 1900 km undersea EastMed Pipeline to transport gas to Europe.  The EastMed project would eventually make Cyprus, Greece and Israel the key links to Europe’s energy supply, reducing reliance on Azerbaijan’s Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) passing through Turkey.  Perceiving this as a slight to its importance as a regional energy hub, Turkey stymied the EastMedline by inking a maritime deal with Libya to delineate the continental shelves in the Mediterranean Sea. This maritime map overlapped the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Cyprus and Greece. Challenging Cyprus's claims over the EEZ, Turkey threw a spanner into the EastMed project, leading to its collapse.

Raking up historical disputes with Greece and Cyprus over the Aegean Islands and the TRNC, Turkey established naval bases in Northern Cyprus. Turkey’s aggressive military posturing led to the commencement of the annual edition of joint military exercises involving France, the UAE, Italy, Cyprus and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus is rich in energy reserves. This augurs well with India’s attempts to diversify energy imports and plausible energy cooperation.

Given the threat from revisionist Turkey, India, Greece and the UAE have established a trilateral dialogue. During the current visit, PM Modi launched India–Greece–Cyprus (IGC) Business and Investment Council to foster trilateral cooperation in shipping, logistics, renewable energy, civil aviation and digital services.

Marking 60 years of diplomatic ties, India and Cyprus signed an MoU on defence cooperation in December 2022. To enhance structured and defence and military exchanges and cooperation, both countries signed the Bilateral Cooperation Development Programme (BCDP) in January 2025.

Strongly aligned in their commitment to ocean governance, countries are now exploring opportunities for increased port calls, joint maritime training and maritime domain awareness. Leaders have also agreed to institutionalise coordination in evacuation, Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. To firm up ties and lay the foundation for an enduring partnership, leaders have tasked their respective Ministry of Foreign Affairs to prepare an Action Plan for the next five years, 2025-29.

Cyprus firmly supports India’s on Kashmir issue and New Delhi’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the expanded UNSC as a permanent member.

President Christodoulides conferred on PM Modi, the Grand Cross of the Order of Makarios III, the highest honour bestowed by Cyprus on foreign heads of government. In a show of deep friendship, both leaders walked together in the historic centre of the capital city, Nicosia, and on the Mediterranean shore. As India seeks to recalibrate its ties with the Mediterranean and Europe, Cyprus' status as an EU member can be strategically very important.

Meticulously aligning strategic vision with national interests, PM Modi’s foreign policy doctrine has been dextrously suffused with symbolism and unambiguous strategic signalling. Rooted in trust, mutual respect, and cementing mutually beneficial partnerships, PM Modi has been consistently positioning India as a responsible power. Treating every nation as an equal partner regardless of the power calculus, India is rewriting the revisionist and hegemonistic order of geopolitical rise.

@ Copyrights Reserved.

Selective Outrage: The West’s Double Standards on Dissent

The disturbing visuals of rioting, vandalism and arson from Los Angeles have stunned the world. Large-scale violence, unrest and loot typically associated with the Third World is the unpleasant reality of America’s Tinsel Town.

Declared as a sanctuary city, in 2019, LA has been on Trump’s immigration radar. Ahead of his inauguration, Trump vowed to use all tools at his disposal to fulfil the campaign promise of mass deportations. To thwart a massive clampdown, the LA City Council adopted a “sanctuary city” ordinance forbidding the use of the city’s resources and staff for federal immigration enforcement efforts. It barred city employees from collecting individual’s immigration status and notifying federal authorities about the release or detention of illegal immigrants.

California had in place special provisions that safeguarded undocumented immigrants. In 1979, the LA Police Department adopted Special Order No.40, barring officers from questioning individuals solely about their immigration status. During Trump’s first term, California’s then-governor, Jerry Brown, signed into law the California Values Act, SB 54, limiting the use of state and local resources for federal enforcement efforts.

The state-installed legal buffers made California a safe haven for 11 million illegal immigrants. When the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) launched raids to apprehend illegal immigrants, mostly those with criminal histories, demonstrations escalated into violent protests. The unjustifiable violence forced President Trump to deploy the National Guard troops.

Democrats swiftly condemned the crackdown on illegal immigration as a “provocation”. Objecting to Washington’s overreach, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, urged Defence Secretary Hegesth to rescind the Federal Order on troop deployment that violated the 10^th Amendment. Even as the anarchy masquerading as protests continued, the LA Mayor, Karen Bass, downplayed the violence and termed “deployment a chaotic escalation” and “political retribution”.

Voted to power for promising decisive action on illegal immigration, Trump’s decision to call National Guard troops and mobilise Marines resonated with people beyond ideological lines. A recent Pew Research Survey in the US indicated that an overwhelming 97% favoured the deportation of illegals with a criminal background. Countries across the world are grappling with illegal immigration and the security challenges it poses. However, the far-left ecosystem, favourably disposed towards illegal immigration, is weaponising them to take on the populist and nationalist governments.

The despicable whitewashing of lawlessness and utter confusion created by the rioting mobs, most of them illegal immigrants in the LA riots, exposed the agenda of the far left.  The rioters torched public property, clashed with police, defaced buildings, raised foreign country flags and even spat on the American flag and burned it. But Democrat leaders- Elizabeth Warren called them “Peaceful Protests”, former Vice President Kamla Harris termed them as “Overwhelmingly peaceful”, and Gavin Newsom echoed “It’s under control”, justifying the violence as ‘acts of resistance’. Ironically, while Democrats vehemently oppose Trump’s ICE raids, they remained silent on Obama-era record-high ICE  formal deportations headed by Tom Homan, now Trump’s ‘Border Czar’.

America’s growing political polarisation eerily mirrors the Indian scenario. Despite their own internal turbulence, the US media and establishment often adopt a sanctimonious tone and sit in judgment of the Global South.

The year 2019 was an important milestone in India’s political history. The re-election of PM Modi for a second term with a thumping majority bolstered hopes of a much-needed political stability that can springboard India’s economic growth.

Abrogation of Article 370 boosted India’s faith in the political leadership, the historic Ram Mandir judgement and the iconic Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) law revitalised the fledgling Indic renaissance. The rise of a nationalist government and its firm commitment to rejuvenate India’s civilisational heritage rattled the vested interests and their foreign masters. Consolidating the electoral victories, the nationalist government firmed up its presence even in the States. A sprightly India, refusing to be a pliable power, not in the best interest of the foreign lobbies, was suddenly marred by waves of orchestrated protests.

The CAA, which attempted to rectify “historical wrongs” by offering citizenship to persecuted minorities from neighbouring countries, along with an announcement for the NRC (National Register of Citizenship) to identify illegal migrants, triggered a torrent of protests across different parts of the country. Principal opposition, Congress, which initiated the CAA process during Manmohan Singh's rule, termed the law as divisive. TMC’s Mamata Banerjee, who demanded NRC in the Parliament, cast aspersions on the government. Online misinformation and fear-mongering portrayed CAA-NRC as discriminatory, aimed at “othering of Indian Muslims”, fuelling mistrust.

Under the guise of ‘peaceful dissent’, the ‘kagz nahi dikhayenge’ gang occupied public spaces in the capital for months. Mutating into a platform for incendiary speeches, the Shaheen Bagh protests- an ostensibly non-violent demonstration- erupted into full-blown 2020 anti-Hindu Delhi riots shortly after Trump’s visit. Over 50 lives were lost, exposing the charade of peaceful protests.

Firmly backed by the global far left brigade, the Indian Opposition defended the blockade of public space as an acceptable form of democratic protest.

Soon after, for political rehabilitation, the Indian opposition aligned with anti-India elements intent on maligning India’s image. In cahoots with disgruntled elements, the Indian opposition enacted a democratic coup by backing farmers' protests that strategically blocked Delhi’s borders for 16 months to repeal transformative farm laws.  

In a planned insurrection, on the 72nd Republic Day, the protestors occupied the Red Fort and hoisted religious flags and unleashed violence, injuring hundreds of security personnel. Shortly, infantile socio-environmentalist Greta Thunberg, in a post on X, inadvertently exposed the toolkit, a global campaign to fuel unrest in India.

Five years ago, India, and more precisely, farmers' protests, hogged the international headlines. Every newspaper worth its salt had a message for India. Every Tom, Dick, Harry, and Trudeau hit out at India during the farmers' protests. Trudeau, former Canadian Prime Minister, the left-wing darling, remarked, “I would be remiss if I didn't start by recognising the news coming from India about the protest by farmers. The situation is concerning. We are all very worried about family and friends….. Canada will always be there to defend the rights of peaceful protesters. We believe in the process of dialogue”.  

Two years hence, declaring a state of emergency, Trudeau crushed the ‘Freedom Convoy’ protests with an iron hand. Defending his actions, he tweeted, “Canadians have the right to protest, to disagree with their government, and to make their voices heard. We’ll always protect that right. But let’s be clear: They don’t have the right to blockade our economy, or our democracy, or our fellow citizens’ daily lives. It has to stop”.

This duplicity speaks volumes.  The West sets standards for others that it refuses to subscribe to. While preaching that dissent is the essence of democracy, leaders like Trump and Trudeau resorted to militarised crackdowns at home. Yet, the West demands that India show unwavering restraint toward squatters and protestors who, under the guise of democratic expression, disrupted supply chains and posed a direct threat to public order for over two years.

The LA riots have spread to 37 locations across the US, yet not a single international agency of repute has raised a concern. In stark contrast, prominent global organisations—Amnesty International, the International Commission of Jurists, the UN Human Rights Commission, and USCIRF and celebrities like Rihanna and Jay Sean, joined the chorus to criticise India, while Western think tanks went so far as to label the country an 'electoral autocracy.'

Alas, for all its lofty moral posturing, the image of an Australian reporter hit by a rubber bullet will be hard-wired in the Indian psyche. India holding up a mirror to the United States isn’t an act of defiance—it’s a much-needed reality check. Long hailed as the bastion of liberal democracy, America is proving to be anything but the torchbearer of democratic ideals.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Delimitation and States Reorganization: For a Better Democracy in Bharat

Teeming with 1.4 billion people, India has set a lofty goal of Viksit Bharat 2047 on the strength of three Ds- Demography, Demand and Democracy. Marked by a peaceful transition of power and a five-year periodic cycle of free and fair elections, India burnishes its democratic credentials.

India has been the mother of Democracy, which has been the hallmark of mature civilisations. Self-governance and devolution of power, the vital elements of a democratic setup, have been integral to Bharatiya society even before the Mauryas and Guptas. Notably, despite sheer geographic separation, similar democratic impulses existed in Greece. While the capricious Amerisphere think-tanks designate India as an ‘electoral autocracy’, based on its Christianised version of democracy, passages in the Rig Veda Mandalas and Atharva Veda vividly describe the election of ‘rajan’ by the Samiti. Democratic system existed in various forms in India from the Vedic times. Clearly, no country, including the West, can have a monopoly over the term ‘Democracy’ and can’t be allowed to set normative benchmarks in judgment of other countries under the garb of ‘rules-based order’.

Unfortunately, waves of foreign invasions have irretrievably disturbed the embedded democratic principles of Bharatiya society. Over two centuries long British colonisation had left a deep imprint on the body politic of India. Having mastered the art of weaponisation of identity markers like religion, caste and language, the British created fissures in the Indian society. The brutal partition of India is rooted in these divisive identity politics, which are a threat to the unity of the country. However, for quick political gains, regional political parties deliberately latch onto identity politics to mobilise the electorate. Unity in diversity is the bedrock of Indian civilisation. The heightened assertion of identities coupled with a renewed call for a freeze on delimitation can be inimical to the democratic framework of any country.

Countering this frenzy, authors Gautam R Desiraju and Deekhit Bhattacharya have brought out a book, “Delimitation and States Reorganization For A Better Democracy in Bharat”, a sequel to Bharat: India 2.0 (authored by Prof. Desiraju), offering a bold, new framework for reshaping the Indian States.  Discarding the time-worn dogmatic methodology, the book gets to the root of the growing trend of identity politics. For their administrative convenience to strengthen their hold on India, the British encouraged provincial reorganisation along the linguistic lines. Soon, the political identity on linguistic lines was firmly instilled in people by around 1920. Ever since, regardless of history, culture and tradition, language emerged as the primary identity of people.

The rise of linguistic consciousness soon bred the supremacist political idea, triggering the genesis of exclusivist political parties that seeded linguistic and cultural chauvinism. During the freedom movement, these hardened linguistic identities dented the national unity by fostering sub-nationalism. Identifying Tamil language as a vector, missionaries instilled the Dravidian ideology in the Madras Province by propping up the caste divisions and designating Nadars as non-Aryan. By turning language into a vector of social engineering, the British successfully drilled in the idea of separateness and sowed seeds of division between Bharat and the Tamil people.

Upholding the objectives of the Justice Party that advocated Dravidian ideology, its offshoots are now stoking embers of separateness in Tamil Nadu. The recent doubling down on imagined Hindi-language imposition and demand for a further freeze on delimitation, provoking the North-South divide indeed warrants a serious relook at the reorganizational framework of States.

Acknowledging “Tamil language as the totem of Dravidianism”, the authors hark back to the failures of the political leadership of independent India that unsuspectedly adopted linguistic reorganisation of States. Strangely, the 1956 States Reorganisation Commission of independent India echoed the British approach of “convenience and apathy” in carving new states based on language, disregarding the economic concerns and cultural identities of the people. Applying the theme of “One Language One State”, new states were formed conforming to a new uniform identity of language, resulting in the suppression of other dialects.

This larger fragmentation created artificial homogenisation, loss of cultural diversity and accentuated dissimilarities between states. With no rationale for the division and application of metrics, India ended up having disparate states with some wielding outsized political heft. This has destabilised the crosstalk between the Unitary (Centre) and peripheral units (States). Centrifugal disruptive tendencies of the states can impact the overall unity of the country.

To stem this rising sub-nationalism and the arm-twisting of States with disproportional electoral heft, the authors recommend the creation of 75 small states based on a common ethnicity, historical connections, language, and culture that enhances self-worth, linguistic pride and self-development. Asserting that the reorganisation of states and delimitation are two sides of the same coin, the book strongly recommends delimitation of States based on the census scheduled for March 2027.

The principle of equal representation is paramount in democracy. The potential of national diversity can be best represented with “Each Vote Same Value and Each State Same Heft”. The authors believe that reorganisation into smaller units of an average 2 crore population can herald mental decolonisation, inspire citizens to embrace their civilizational identities unapologetically. In fact, small states with optimal population size and diversity, besides augmenting the country’s potential, can promote true federalism. If states are roughly the same size, none would have disproportionate heft.

The authors strongly recommend that the Centre must bite the Delimitation bullet frozen for 50 years, against the 10-year renewal after every census. The last delimitation exercise was carried out based on the 1971 census. Boundaries were readjusted in 2001, but the number of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies remained the same.  Small states can resolve the inconsistencies of demography, economy and federal impulses to a large extent. Currently, the average voters represented by an Lok Sabha MP is 17.9 lakh, more than the size of Sweden. ‘Delimitation helps in realignment and reemergence of new power dynamics’.

Advocating for an extremely onerous task of delimitation, which involves demographic, political and legal complexities, the authors want the exercise to be done ‘ab initio’ not incrementally. As per Article 3 of the Indian Constitution, Parliament can form new states and redraw the existing boundaries. Delimitation is the first step in reshaping and reimagining India.

‘Bharat is an ancient civilisation, India is a new country’ trapped in the Westphalian artifice of the nation state. India has given in to the British imposition of institutionalised linguistic identity. British model can be exemplified by Winston Churchill’s statement, “India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the equator”. As the authors rightly contend, “intellectual colonisation outlasts political colonisation”, and the Indian elite looking at India through the British lens has embellished and institutionalised this lie.

Indeed, the “Western notion of federalism rooted in the Roman idea, of varied peoples pooling together select political power as foederatis makes little sense in the Indian context- our model is of singular all-pervading Brahman manifesting itself in many forms by declaring ‘May I be many, may I grow forth’ instead of preexisting bits and pieces of agglomerating together”.

Offering a compelling logic, the authors present Dr. Ambedkar’s note on the 1956 SRC entitled “Thoughts on Linguistic States”. He wrote, “The formation of Linguistic States, although essential, cannot be decided by any sort of hooliganism. Nor must it be solved in a manner that will serve party interest. It must be solved by cold-blooded reasoning”. Suggesting an alternative foundation, the authors have come up with the idea of “One Language One State”.

Forwarded by Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, the 245-page book comprising five chapters offers prescriptive solutions and an actionable plan for India aspiring to rediscover, reclaim its civilizational identity. Presenting a clear distinction in the end goals of a nation state and a civilizational state, rooted in a Dharmic foundation, the authors provide a blueprint that necessitates the reorganisation of States and a new constitution that resonates with the values and aspirations of people.

Historically, Bharat had small states, and the new model of 75 states aligns with the time-tested idea that uncompromisingly nurtures diversity, which is the essence of our civilisation. With a nationalist dispensation at the helm, India is going through a silent churn. The dispassionate visionary blueprint etched out by the authors to make India a better democracy deserves huge applause. The roadmap is reflective of their desire in India’s emergence as a civilisation state. The book is timely and a must-read.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Beneath the Facade of Trump's Peacemaking

Responding to Trump’s claims of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, in a rather provocative interview with Dutch Broadcaster NOS, EAM Jaishankar clarified, “The ceasefire was negotiated directly between India and Pakistan….We made one thing very clear to everybody who spoke to us, not just the United States, but to everyone, saying if the Pakistanis want to stop fighting, they need to tell us. We need to hear it from them. Their general has to call up our general and say this. And that is what happened”. He pointedly noted, “The US was in the United States”. Jaishankar’s statement is among the numerous clarifications and denials the government of India has issued as President Trump continued to double down on the India-Pakistan ceasefire.

Trump, being Trump, as evident from his first term, is a compulsive credit hogger. He continues to strut around pompously, exaggerating his role in the India-Pakistan ceasefire even as India has been rebutting his claims both politically and diplomatically. Trump’s ceasefire statement on social media ahead of the Indian government’s formal announcement in the thick of the conflict baffled the political dispensation and Indians alike. While the Indian military inflicted a mighty blow on the Pakistani terrorist ecosystem, Trump’s hubristic claims of the American role and mediation have despoiled the sheen of Operation Sindoor’s huge success. India’s opportunistic opposition on a prowl to pounce on the political regime got a big stick to belittle the military’s big bang delivered to Pakistan.  

Having invested immense energies and tact to position himself as a peacemaker, Trump’s nugatory peace overtures to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un during his first term ended up as a damp squib. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking charge.

Four months into office, Trump declared, “This isn't my war. We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn't have been involved in”. Terming the call with President Trump on May 21^st, ‘excellent’, Putin agreed to ceasefire negotiations, but offered no timeline or verifiable pullback. In fact, Russian forces launched 100 drones on Ukraine the same day. While Trump omitted the issue of sanctions, Russia continued to persist with its hardline claims, made no compromises, but welcomed US efforts.

Trump pushed the idea of increased economic cooperation between the US and Russia ahead of bilateral talks in Riyadh in March. Responding to Trump’s reset, Russia included investment manager Kirill Dmitriev in the delegation.  The mineral deal with Ukraine has been the essential precondition for Trump for America’s continued support.

Trump’s big proclamations on China ended as a dud missile due to Xi Jinping’s defiance. By imposing huge retaliatory tariffs, Xi forced America to blink first, from whopping 245% tariffs on some goods, countries have now settled on 30% tariffs.

Trump vowed to bring about peace in the Middle East and end the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. His team’s short-lived ceasefire ended up in a big failure, with Israel resuming attacks on Gaza after Hamas backed down on hostage release. The conflict continues to simmer in the Middle East. After his ‘peacemaker’ stance took a hit, he turned his attention away from Israel.

Trump’s fetish for personal diplomacy and face-to-face interactions stems not from his aversion to conflicts but from his quest for deal-making steered by transactionalism. Unfortunately, his penchant for seeking a business opportunity is steadily overpowering his discretion in the complex geopolitical engagements.

Trump, who signed a flurry of executive orders to combat anti-semitism, suddenly veered the track, voicing concerns over starvation in Gaza on the final day of his Gulf tour. Lest people miss the context, the $400 million Qatari jet made all the difference. Now, Trump is aggressively pushing for nuclear talks with Iran, much to the discomfort of Netanyahu, started direct negotiations with Hamas for American hostage release, lifted sanctions on Syria and recently bargained a temporary peace with Yemeni Houthis.

Trump is keen that the world acknowledge his position as the leader of a superpower. He seeks an opportunity in every conflict to project America’s role. This was clearly evident in his repeated bluster about playing a role as mediator in the India-Pakistan conflict. Claiming that India has been fighting for 1000/ 1500 years with Pakistan he bragged about using the trade lever to stop the conflict, which was on the verge of going nuclear. In the process, he equated India and Pakistan all for the sake of optics.

Trump’s equivocation of terror target, India, with terror perpetrator, Pakistan, has touched a raw nerve as it reminded New Delhi of the old entanglements. Trump’s repeated claims exposed his lack of understanding and his double-speak.

In 2017, Trump vowed to “eradicate radical Islamic terrorism”, urged Muslim nations to “drive out terrorists”, and even barred citizens and refugees from seven Muslim countries over concerns of “terrorism”. Days into this second term, Trump approved the extradition of 26/11 accused Tahawwur Rana. The India-US Joint statement of February 13, 2025, stated, “recognising a shared desire to bring to justice those who would harm our citizens, the US announced that the extradition to India of Tahawwur Rana has been approved”.

Days after the Pahalgam attacks, Trump announced US support for India in the fight against terrorism. In response to India’s strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan, Trump reacted, “It’s a shame. We just heard about it, they have been fighting for a long time… I just hope it just ends quickly”. Four days later, Trump posted on Truth Social, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL and IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence”.

In 2019, post Article-370 abrogation, on the sidelines of the G7 Summit, PM Modi categorically rejected “any scope of third-party mediation between India and Pakistan”. Trump’s repeated reiterations of false claims to hog in limelight were a rude shock. It betrayed India’s trust.

India has refused to validate Trump’s claims on the ceasefire of Operation Sindoor, which is temporarily halted but not terminated. India is now doubling down on Pakistan by sending several multi-party delegations to various countries.

Trump’s favourable statements about Pakistan, which are getting more repetitive, “Pakistan has got some excellent people, a really great leader,” have forced people to dig below the surface for answers. This eventually turned attention to a crypto deal signed between the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC), set up a month ago, with World Liberty Foundation (WLF), a cryptocurrency firm.  Trump’s family- his two sons and son-in-law Jared Kushner hold 75% of the stakes in the firm. It is co-chaired by Zachary Witkoff, the son of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. Pakistani Prime Minister and Army General Asim Munir was seen hosting them after the signing ceremony.

Gentry Beach, a friend of Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr, a Trump associate who raised millions of dollars for Trump’s campaign, toured Pakistan, Bangladesh and Turkey in January. He is believed to have favoured investments in the mining sector and facilitated the crypto deal.

In the thick of Operation Sindoor, the US unlocked the IMF bailout plan for Pakistan, facilitating the immediate release of $1 billion and approving a fresh loan of $1.4 billion. As India continues to intensify its campaign against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism, Trump has recently appointed two known jihadists and sympathisers of Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and Hamas, Ismail Royer and Shaykh Hamza Yusuf, to the White House advisory board under the Religious Liberty Commission.

Buoyed by Trump’s favours, Pakistan signed long-time Trump associates Javelin Associates, Keith Schiller, and George Sorial, the Trump Organisation’s compliance officer, to forge a long-term economic partnership and secure investments in mining. It is well known that countries lobby the US to influence its foreign policy for favourable gains and trade deals. However, Trump’s brazen whitewashing of Pakistani terrorism and re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan has dismayed New Delhi.

Trump’s praise of Pakistan at the Union State address for handing over a terrorist while lashing out at India as ‘tariff King’ and authorisation of $397 million for F-16 maintenance, which is among the 243 exceptions made under an executive order that halted overseas funding, hasn’t escaped India’s notice. The drift has been steady.

India was among the few countries to have diplomatically managed Trump’s trade deal, quietly absorbing his barbs. But this perceived red line and misadventurous blustering on India-Pakistan mediation has solidified India’s doubts of the US as an ‘unreliable partner’. Trump’s diplomatic cover fire to Pakistan is inexcusable on many counts as it betrays the trust of his own vote bank that has silently voiced concerns over Islamist radicalism.

Additionally, Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’, which proposes to impose 3.5% tax on outward remittances, his initial warning to Tim Cook, “I don’t want you building (manufacturing) in India” and threatening to impose 25% tax on iPhones made in India and other countries are ample indicators of his attempt to intimidate India. Putin has played down Trump, and Xi Jinping has defied him. Now, Trump is running down on India for some quick wins.

Over eight decades, India has determinedly withstood America’s strong-arm tactics and asserted its strategic autonomy. However, Trump’s ruthless disregard of India’s insensitivities has sowed political distrust. Given the multi-dimensional cooperation of the Comprehensive Strategic Global Partnership between India and US, India has to now rework its engagement with Trump administration. With a strategic financial investment in Trump’s empire, Pakistan has now earned his backing. Implicitly, Trump expects Indian businesses to open their purse strings.

While bureaucrats and analysts continue to parrot, ‘structural and systemic convergences between India and US are too deep’ to be undermined, the path to compromised American political systems clearly runs through lobbyist alleys. Value-based geopolitics is a thing of past; financial realism is what matters in Trump’s world.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Bracing Inimical Geopolitical Nexus

India’s overwhelming military dominance during Operation Sindoor compelled Pakistan to plead for a ceasefire. The four-day-long conflict gave India an important opportunity to take a stock of the unravelling geopolitical configurations within the region and across the world. Operation Sindoor is India’s fight against terrorism, the foremost global challenge, which nations are grappling to curb. Nations openly harp and harangue about it. However, India found itself all alone in its war against terrorism with no major power openly supporting it (barring Israel).

China and Turkey openly backed the perpetrator of terrorism, Pakistan. They supplied weapons, arms and remained in touch with Pakistan throughout the four-day-long conflict. China is believed to have provided intelligence inputs about Indian troop location and air defences, and remained in touch with Pakistan during the course of kinetic action.

Renowned analyst Srikanth Kondapalli wrote, China has supplied $20 billion worth of arms to Pakistan, which included J-10CE and JF-17 Block III fighter aircraft, Wing Loong drones, frigates, submarines, Hongqi HQ-9p missiles, LY-80 air defence systems, ZDK early warning aircraft, among others. Besides the overt diplomatic support, Beijing closely worked with Turkey in withholding the inclusion of TRF’s name in the 1267 Committee UNSC resolution, dispatched 200 fishing boats to the Indian Ocean to monitor Indian naval movements.

Influential Chinese bloggers amplified Pakistan’s misinformation and fake propaganda against India. Regular joint military exercises have enhanced interoperability and integration of the command and control centres of both militaries. Offering necessary coordinate support on all the fronts- air, land and water domains, China has eventually become a part of Pakistan’s proxy war against India.

China threw its entire weight behind Pakistan in the four-day conflict. However, hours after Trump’s ceasefire statement not to be left behind, Beijing adroitly shifted its stance and announced, “We support and welcome the realisation of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and stand ready to continue to play a constructive role in securing a full and lasting ceasefire and upholding regional peace and stability”. China’s diplomatic intervention kept the global attention away from the behind-the-scenes support for Pakistan’s attacks.

On the contrary, Turkey came out in Pakistan’s defence with full ballast. Debris recovered from targeted sites included remnants of Turkish Asisguard Songar and YIHA drones deployed by Pakistan. Pakistan used over 400 drones to target Indian military infrastructure and 36 locations, along the Northern and Western borders from Leh to Sir Creek. Pakistan has used even the famed Bayraktar TB2 drones against India, manufactured by the Turkish defence contractor, Baykar. The chairman of the defence firm is Selcuk Bayraktar, the son-in-law of President Erdogan.

Defence production and arms manufacturing are becoming one of the cornerstones of Erdogan’s foreign policy. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, Pakistan is now the second-largest destination of Turkey’s defence products. India’s contemporary ties to Turkey date back to the Khilafat movement when the Indian Congress party mobilised the entire country to support the Ottoman Empire. Post World War II, Turkey opposed communism, sided with the US and joined NATO. In 1954, Turkey and Pakistan signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation. Later, both of them, along with Iran and the United Kingdom, became the founding members of the Baghdad Pact or Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), while India adopted a non-alignment policy.

Turkey supported Pakistan during the 1965 and 1971 wars. On the other hand, India backed Cyprus for a peaceful resolution to the eviction of Turkish troops deployed in Northern Cyprus. Towards the end of the Cold War era, Turkey attempted to build relations with India when both countries agreed to set up defence attaches in 1986. After India opened its economy, Turkey found an economic opportunity in India, and both countries signed a couple of agreements on scientific cooperation, avoidance of double taxation, etc. But ties soon frayed as Turkey continued to rake up the Kashmir issue at the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) meetings.

Turkey, by and large, cherished a pro-Pakistani lens, barring a sole exception of Socialist Democrat Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, who condemned the military coup of Pervez Musharaf. He rejected Pakistan’s invitation and travelled to Indian in 2000. He recalibrated Turkey’s position on Kashmir and called for a bilateral settlement. Around this time, PM Vajpayee steered the bilateral ties with his visit.

Prime Minister Erdogan’s AKP party, in the nascent stages, prioritising economic collaboration on his visit to India in 2008, explored the possibility of an FTA. ISRO launched Turkey’s first nano satellite in 2009. However, as Erdogan’s Muslim Brotherhood, subterranean links began to dominate his political ideology, Turkey’s approach towards India witnessed a marked shift. Concomitant to Turkey’s political transition from a secular republic to an Islamist authoritarianism under Erdogan, who became the first directly elected President in 2014, his foreign policy underwent a swift change. His unabashed Islamic pursuits changed the political and diplomatic outlook of Turkey.

Harbouring the ambitions of becoming the Neo-Ottoman Caliph, aspiring to don the global Islamic leadership mantle, Erdogan sought to resurrect the lost imperial glory. In this quest, Erdogan found a natural ideological partner in Pakistan. This overt pro-Pakistan drift became more prominent after Turkey became a partner in Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the Kashmir issue in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Ever since, Kashmir has found a mention in his UNGA speeches except for 2024.

Reciprocating Turkey’s favour, Pakistan helped Istanbul and Malaysia host a summit to create a new bloc that would rival the OIC at Kuala Lumpur in 2019 for Muslim nations. However, under intense pressure from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and its allies, Pakistan pulled out of the summit at the last hour.

As India continued to build strong relations with Arab nations like the UAE, Saudi and other GCC countries, Erdogan cultivated Pakistan. Though India is Turkey’s second-largest trade partner in East Asia after China, amounting to $10.43 billion as against bilateral trade of $1.4 billion with Pakistan, Istanbul has explicitly towed an anti-Indian line.

In 2018, Pakistan signed an agreement with Turkey’s ASFAT to acquire four MILGEM-class stealth corvettes, including transfer of technology. Pakistan also received F16 Fighter Falcon jets from Turkish Aerospace Industries. Both countries deepened defence cooperation. Turkey played an active role in modernising Pakistan’s navy, including the upgradation of Pakistan’s Agosta 90B submarines. According to SIPRI, Pakistan received three Bayraktar drones in 2022.

To counter Turkey, India has intensified engagement with Greece, Cyprus and emerged as the largest supplier of arms to Armenia, the mortal enemy of Azerbaijan. Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan are part of the Three Brothers Alliance. All three countries signed the Trilateral Islamabad Declaration in 2021 to show solidarity with Baku after the 44-day war with Armenia.

Additionally, Turkey’s grouse against India stems from its exclusion from the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IMEC undercuts Turkey’s vital importance as a formidable connectivity hub between Asia and Europe. By building strong partnerships with the UAE, France and Israel, India has hedged against Turkey’s growing prominence in defence and maritime security.

In February 2025, Pakistan and Turkey signed 24 cooperation agreements, including air force warfare cooperation and signed a joint declaration, “Deepening, Diversifying and Institutionalising the Strategic Partnership”. Turkey reiterated its support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. As part of this warfare cooperation agreement, Turkey deployed two drone operators to Pakistan who were reportedly killed during the Operation Sindoor.

Days after the Pahalgam attack, a high-level Turkish military delegation landed in Pakistan, Turkey’s C-130 military aircraft delivered drones to Pakistan, and its Ada class anti-submarine corvette docked at Karachi on May 2.

After India struck Pakistani terrorist camps, Turkey lauded Pakistan’s “calm and restrained policies” and batted Pakistan’s call for an investigation into the Pahalgam attack. On May 10, Turkey strongly came out in support of Pakistan and defended its position completely.

Notwithstanding Turkey’s Pakistani drift, in 2013, under Operation Dost, India rushed 250 defence personnel to Istanbul in the aftermath of devastating earthquakes to help with rescue and relief operations. India even deployed an IAF aircraft and Garuda drones to assist in rescue efforts. India’s humanitarian gestures hardly made any impact on Turkey’s outlook.

Battling brewing dissent amid a severe crackdown on political opponents and a precarious economic outlook, Erdogan is refashioning his foreign policy to champion Islamic causes. To cater to the hardcore Islamist electorate, Erdogan threw his weight behind Hamas and Hezbollah, and supplied drones to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to topple Assad’s regime in Syria. Backing Pakistan perfectly fits his ideological agenda.

Economic interests clearly took a back seat for Erdogan. Indian exports to Turkey during Covid-19, such as aluminium components, automotive systems, telecom gear, aircraft parts, and various electronic assemblies, made their way into the drone manufacturing. Indian firm DCM Shriram Ltd signed a partnership agreement with Turkish UAV producer Zyrone Dynamics in 2021, unveiling a new chapter in the defence sector. However, ironically, Turkey imposed an embargo on defence weapons to India in 2024.

Turkey’s betrayal has evoked strong public outrage, culminating in #BoycottTurkey, Azerbaijan campaign. Indians have cancelled trips to Turkey, and the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) decided to stop all kinds of imports from Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Erdogan’s AKP party maintains informal links with the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2005, Turkey created the Istanbul-based Union of NGOs of the Islamic World (UNIM) to create “ummah consciousness”. It has 340 organisations spread across 65 countries under its ambit. Operating through this wide network of NGOs, Turkey peddles a false narrative on Kashmir through the Helping Hand for Relief and Development (HHRD) and the Kashmir Action Council (KAC), both of which are US based UNIM organisations.

UNIM has close links with Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami and sponsors its activities, including the rehabilitation of Rohingyas. Post-Operation Sindoor, a Turkish NGO-backed Islamist group in Bangladesh started circulating “Saltanat-e-Bangla”, a map showing Greater Bangladesh, which includes Myanmar’s Arakan State, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and the entire North Eastern region of India. Bangladesh’s acrimonious posturing in conjunction with the earlier statement that should India hit Pakistan, Dhaka should tie up with China to occupy India’s northeast, has exposed the entrenched anti-India Islamic coalition at work.

Turkey is implementing its Pakistan template in Bangladesh and also wooing Indian Muslims through its think-tank, South Asia Strategic Research Centre (GASAM). Erdogan’s ideological subservience to Dar-Al-Arab and Dar-Al-Islam closely overlaps with Pakistan’s Ghazwa-e-Hind. Operation Sindoor has exposed the nexus of India’s adversaries.

President Trump’s indifferent remarks on Operation Sindoor saying, “It’s a shame. We just heard about it, they’ve been fighting for a long time… I just hope it ends very quickly” and his attempts to hyphenate India and Pakistan, the old US foreign policy stance towards South Asia vindicated US’s “unreliable partner” reputation. The collective West’s reluctance to condemn Pakistan’s weaponisation of terrorism has exposed their hypocrisy and sanctimonious approach to counter terrorism operations.

President Trump’s handshake with the UN-designated terrorist, aka Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the founder of the terrorist organisation Al-Nusra, an affiliate organisation of Al-Qaeda, has revealed the West's policy of leveraging terrorism for its strategic interests. Similarly, China, which justifies its harsh counterterrorism and de-radicalisation policies in Xinjiang on the pretext of rising Uyghur terrorist activity, has sided with Pakistan, the mothership of terrorism.

Operation Sindoor has unambiguously laid bare the outlook of India’s friends and adversaries who are uncomfortable with India’s rise. The West’s loud proclamations to combat terrorism are hollow. Multilateral organisations responsible for overseeing sanctions on terrorist organisations have once again proved to be lame. Strategic voting at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and technical holds in the UNSC by veto-wielding powers have rendered counter-terrorism mechanisms of multilateral agencies ineffective.

Enforcing zero tolerance towards terrorism with unprecedented strategic clarity, India asserted its geopolitical stance. India’s tactical response to Pakistan’s terrorism under Operation Sindoor is truly a watershed movement. The political, diplomatic and military lessons from this strategic retaliation should now serve as a compass for India’s futuristic geopolitical strategy.

@ Copyrights reserved.