The cycle of political uncertainty and inconclusive elections continues to beleaguer Israel

With the collapse of the ‘change government’, all hopes of much-longed political stability have crumbled. The Parliament passed the Knesset dissolution bill on Wednesday officially making way for a fifth election in three and half years.  The vote passed overwhelmingly 110-0. After two years of prolonged political impasse, a coalition government of eight parties of varied hues came together to form a ‘change government’. The rainbow coalition comprised of far rights, centrists and leftists. The coalition included an Arab party, a conservative Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas. This is quite significant since, for the first time ever, an Arab party became a party to a governing coalition.

Driven by the motive of keeping former Prime Minister and Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu out of power, promising political stability, Naftali Bennett of arch Nationalist Yamina party and Yair Lapid of centrist Yesh Atid party steered a coalition to form a ‘change government’. While the new coalition government successfully ended the 12-year rule of Benjamin Netanyahu, the party suffered from internal contradictions. Having resolved to address critical issues, parties were forced to compromise on their ideologies and this riled up their dedicated supporters.

Among the notable achievements, the coalition managed to pass the budget in November, which was stalled for the past three years depleting funds in the public sector. New funds were allocated to public transport, health care, law enforcement and education. The government has increased work permits for Gazans as well. 

The ruling coalition with a razor-thin majority of 61 seats fell into trouble in April after Yamina party member, Idit Silman announced her departure after health minister refused to prohibit entry of non-kosher food to hospitals and defected to Likud party. Tremors within the coalition intensified following the clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and the Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan. The Joint List which is an alliance of three Arab parties expressed serious disappointment over continued raids in the West Bank. The death of Al-Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, most likely shot by Israeli convoy ¹, the Supreme Court’s order allowing the Israeli military to evacuate 1000 Palestinians from Masafer Yatta region for building a firing zone accentuated the tenuous relationship of the coalition². This has spurred a string of defections.

Internal rebellion hit the coalition, which suffered a massive blow after it failed to renew the 50-year-old ‘Settler Law’ which extends Israeli Law to Jewish settlers in the West Bank. The law is renewed every five years. Two members of the Ra’am Party of ruling coalition voted against the bill and three Yamina party didn’t turn up to vote. Right-wing opposition voted against the bill to conclusively pull down the coalition government. Ahead of the voting, Justice Minister Gideon Saar of Hope Party reiterated that the legislation is key for the survival of the government. Renewal of the regulations has put the Ra’am party in a difficult position. Protecting the rights of settlers is a right-wing agenda. The Islamist party identified with Palestinians would appear to be portrayed as supporters of Israeli policy if it supports the bill. Likud party, the principal opposition determined to oppose any policy of the ruling party has overwhelmingly voted against the bill.

In the absence of the renewal of 55-year-old- “emergency regulations” the settlers in the West Bank will be subject to military court along with Palestine residents and would usher in legal chaos³. With elections in the offing, while ‘emergency regulations’ will automatically kick in, a rejection of renewal served as a final blow to the embattled coalition.

The proverbial last straw came after Yamina Party’s Nir Orbach on June 13^th quit the coalition and pushed the government to minority status. This expedited the vote for dissolving the Parliament, Knesset, and honouring the power-sharing agreement, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett plans to step down to hand over reigns to Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Lapid will continue to serve as the interim Prime Minister until the new government is formed after elections. The ruling bloc which collapsed after one year and one-week sparked speculations about the prospective return of Benjamin Netanyahu to power.

Diplomatically, the ‘Change Government’ bolstered relations with the UAE and sealed a $10 billion Free Trade Agreement. Ties with Saudi Arabia have been on the upswing.  Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, Israel emerged as a viable ally of Arab nations facing the threat of Iran. To counter Iran’s burgeoning missile and drone capabilities, Israel has announced plans to lay the foundation for a strategic military alliance to deter Iran and its associated militia⁴ at Negev Summit. Recently, in the face of reports of Iran’s planned attacks on Israelis in Turkey, Israel has intensified its call to build “Joint Defense System” with Middle East allies Morocco, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE. To their credit, the ‘change government’ has tactfully avoided joining the sanctions regime against Russia despite US pressure.

While the disbanded coalition had its ups and downs it, by and large offered some kind of remission from the prolonged political volatility in Israel. With Israel heading for a fresh round of elections which must be held within the next 90 days, Netanyahu is rearing for a comeback. Though mired in corruption charges, in absence of any law that can prevent him from serving as Prime Minister, Netanyahu is already making a fervent pitch to voters to ride back to power. With Bennett floating the idea of not contesting the next elections, the Centrist party leader, Lapid, the architect of the ‘Change government’ and who served as foreign minister is all set to emerge as the main challenger for Netanyahu.

Like Netanyahu, Lapid is now reckoned as global statesman for elevating Israel’s international stature. Unlike Netanyahu, who is despised for his rightist policies, as an architect of a coalition government with a gamut of ideologically varied parties, Lapid has gained the reputation of being an inclusivist. While the electoral tide is largely in favour of Netanyahu, initial electoral surveys have ruled out an outright majority for Netanyahu. But Likud party is expected to emerge as the single largest party.

Despite the trepidations of government collapse complicating the upcoming Biden’s visit, the US confirmed Biden’s trip to Israel as planned. This visit will largely tilt the scales in favour of the ruling coalition and bestow Lapid a statesmanlike sheen. Besides, being an incumbent leader, Lapid might have an upper hand in appealing electorate if a proposed anti-Iran bloc in the Middle East and expansion of Abraham Accords materialise. Additionally, with a major restructuring of geopolitical alignments in the region on the cards and Iran-US nuclear negotiations on the verge of collapse even Foreign Minister Bennett would be forced to brace for a high-valued diplomatic mission.

Though the survey conducted on the day, the government dissolved indicated Netanyahu as the preferred leader for Prime Minister with 47%,⁵ the incumbent government and Yair Lapid stand a better chance to improve their standings. Analysts believe that the coming elections will be Netanyahu’s last chance and if he fails to deliver, he might lose the support of his vote base. Be as it may, Israel is now plagued by a cycle of inconclusive elections and a tenuous coalition, will a fifth round of elections break this political gridlock?

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