BRICS Summit held in the backdrop of China’s veto of the resolution of India and the US to proscribe a Pakistani terrorist, Abdul Rehman Makki rightly surmises the vortex the group is caught up in. Additionally, the continued stand-off between the Indian and Chinese troops along LAC prolonged deferment on complete disengagement from the Western Sector and absence of any breakthrough at 24th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) brings to fore the implacable decline in the Indo-China relations.
Months ahead
of the BRICS summit, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited India extending
an invitation for the summit. Considering China’s obdurate posturing and
reluctance to initiate disengagement of forces, Wang was denied meeting with PM
Modi. NSA Ajit Doval reiterated that any visit can happen only after the complete
disengagement of forces. This sequence of events has eerie similarities with the
Indo-China standoff at Doklam in 2017 when China, as BRICS chair, conscious of
its global reputation and optics, withdrew the troops to facilitate a smooth
summit. But China’s propaganda machinery on a vicious overdrive pronounced
that New Delhi has chickened out.
Going by the
past cycle of events, analysts hoped that the BRICS summit would offer some
solution to the prolonged Sino-Indian logjam. With the 20th National
Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) just months away, President Xi
who is on a sticky wicket and facing challenges to his leadership is in no
position to risk his reputation by way of offering concessions to India by
choosing to hold a virtual meeting. To gloss over deeply-roiled ties with
India, China swiftly resorted to digital diplomacy. Despite China’s deft
management, fissures within BRICS are now threatening intra-BRICS cooperation.
Besides the bilateral
dissensions between the two large stakeholders of the BRICS, the group is also
enveloped by the complex geopolitical turbulences. Ukraine crisis eventually snowballed
into a proxy war between the US-led NATO and Russia, the deteriorating ties
between the US and Russia, Sino-Russian ‘no limits friendship’, and the US acknowledgment
of China and Russia as adversaries, have put the intra-BRICS partnership under
stress.
The 14th
BRICS Summit themed on “Foster High-Quality BRICS partnership, Usher in a
New Era for Global Development” was conducted virtually by the chairship of
China on Jun 23-24. The covid pandemic has exposed the true nature of
countries. Strident “Wolf Diplomacy”, subtle politicization and
weaponization of the medical emergency, disruption of global supplies, and above
all China’s bellicose expansionism has invariably dented its international
reputation. To resurrect its image and counter the burgeoning global concerns
over security in the Indo-Pacific region, China began to advocate global
development to address global challenges, and ever since it has become the buzzword
of Beijing’s foreign policy.
Indeed,
President Xi proposed a “Global Development Initiative” at the 76th
Session of the UN General Assembly on September 21st, 2021, just
days ahead of the first in-person Quad Summit in Washington. China contended
that the new emphasis on global development is an effort to strengthen and
accelerate the UN 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development. Incidentally, global
development has been the main theme of China’s High-Level Dialogue with BRICS
Outreach/ BRICS Plus Cooperation to strengthen international cooperation as
well.
Geopolitically,
China suffered two blowbacks- drying of funds, investments to BRI in the
aftermath of Covid, and the renewed global recognition of the threat to peace
and stability of the Indo-Pacific region. While the Biden administration
fumbled in evolving a hardnosed Chinese policy, the revival of the Quad had
implicitly highlighted the aggressive policies of China. The situation is
further complicated by the eruption of the Ukraine crisis and the West’s
punitive sanctions on Russia.
Beset with
global aspirations, in response to the Quad’s Indo-Pacific strategy, China
hankered to push its vision of global order. At the 2017 Xiamen BRICS Summit,
China first outlined a framework for “BRICS Plus” to promote cooperation
between BRICS members and the emerging markets and developing countries
(EMDCs). Giving a huge fillip to these plans, China has invited EMDCs for the
virtual summit of BRICS foreign ministers in May for the first time. After the
conclusion of the BRICS Summit, China chaired a session on Global Development
in the BRICS Plus format attended by leaders of 17 countries- Brazil, Russia,
India, South Africa, Argentina, Indonesia, Nigeria, UAE, Egypt, Cambodia,
Thailand, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Fiji and Ethiopia and
proposed to launch BRICS Plus Business Community Forum1.
Indeed, setting
the tone by inaugurating the BRICS Business Forum ahead of the BRICS summit,
President Xi criticised the West and Europe for “the abuse” of
international sanctions and derided its “group politics” and “bloc
confrontation”. Calling sanctions “boomerangs and double-edged swords”
Xi lashed at the West, “those who politicise, leverage and weaponise the
global economy and wilfully impose sanctions by taking advantage of dominance
in international and financial and monetary systems will eventually harm others
and themselves and bring disasters to people around the World”1.
He referred to Global Security Initiative (GSI) launched recently at Boao Asian
Forum to counter the Quad as well. While President Putin rebuked the West for
fomenting the food crisis.
Clearly, the
remarks of India, central to both BRICS and Quad, the two parallel groupings,
hogged the limelight. Reiterating that BRICS is conceived with a belief that
the group of emerging economies can serve as an engine of global growth, Prime
Minister Modi highlighted the investment opportunities, digital transformation,
economic reforms enforced in India and focussed on the post-Covid recovery.
Refusing to
take sides at the recently concluded Quad summit, India exerted a moderating
influence and adopted a neutral stance. Replicating the same template at BRICS
summit, India has ensured that it doesn’t turn into an anti-Western propaganda
trail and the joint statement remains non-partisan. Despite its differences
with China, keen on preserving its friendly ties with Russia and engagement
with other countries, India continues to play an active role in the BRICS.
Led by
China, the Joint Statement is high on rhetoric and low on substance in terms of
productive cooperation. For all the unusual attention, the BRICS has garnered
for all the contradictions it subsumes, the Joint Statement began with a hollow
proclamation– “BRICS countries have strengthened mutual trust, deepened
intra-BRICS mutually beneficial cooperation and closer people to people exchanges”.
Replete with
pompous cliches, the sententious Joint statement included a “commitment to
multilateralism through upholding international law, including playing a central
role in which sovereign states cooperate to maintain peace and security,
sustainable development, promotion and protection of democracy, human rights,
and fundamental freedoms”. Underscoring the need for making global
governance systems more inclusive, transparent, representative and
participatory, BRICS affirmed the need to strengthen and reform the
multilateral systems. Ironically, furthering reforms in the UNGA and Economic
Social Council, China in collaboration with the “Coffee Club” led by Italy and
Pakistan has deliberately halted the negotiations on UNSC reforms to deprive
India of a seat at the high table.
Abound with
contradictions and searing double standards, the joint statement affirms a “commitment
to ensuring the promotion and protection of democracy and human rights and
fundamental rights for all” even as 1.5 million Uighurs are held in the so-called
“re-education” detention camps by China. The joint statement reiterated strong
support for G20’s leading role in global economic governance to address global
challenges and emphasized the need for launching a selection process of
Appellate Body Members of WTO for dispute resolution mechanism and called upon
the IMF to address the underrepresentation of EMDCs and protect quota shares of
the poorest and the smallest countries.
Notably,
countries have a clear consensus on certain global aspects. Unequivocally the
group supported diplomacy and dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to resolve
the situation in Ukraine. Similarly, countries emphasised that Afghanistan’s
territory shouldn’t be used to threaten or attack a country or train and
finance terrorists and called for a broad-based and inclusive political
structure. They condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations, extended
support to the African Union Agenda 2063 and called for the resumption of
Iran’s JCPOA, denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, strengthening of arms
control, disarmament and non-proliferation treaties, conventions on biological
and chemical weapons, prevention of arms race in outer space for global
stability and international peace.
BRICS summit
has identified certain core areas of cooperation and these curiously match the
focus areas of joint collaboration of the Quad. BRICS has launched BRICS
Vaccine Research and Development Centre to strengthen vaccine cooperation and
jointly build a defensive line against pandemics and emphasised the need for the
establishment of BRICS integrated Early Warning System for preventing mass
infectious diseases. For cooperation in research and development and the application
of new and emerging technologies, BRICS has constituted the Digital BRICS Task
Force (DBTF). Similarly, BRICS Initiative for Enhancing Cooperation on Supply
Chains and BRICS Digital Economy Partnership Framework are proposed for
reliable supply chains and to promote the digital economy respectively.
To deepen
economic cooperation and work towards a strong inclusive post-Covid recovery,
Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership 2025 was unveiled. BRICS now comprises
multitudinous frameworks, task forces, working groups, and roadmaps, ranging
from start-up partnerships on new industrial revolution, ICT cooperation, cooperation
in science, technology & innovation, industrial internet and digital
manufacturing, technology transfer and basic training in patents.
The new
inclusion to BRICS cooperative framework now includes- BRICS Think Tank Network
for Finance, BRICS Joint Committee on Space Cooperation established in line
with the Agreement on Cooperation on BRICS Remote Sensing Satellite
Constellation.
While BRICS
has diligently evolved a structural framework for comprehensive cooperation
across various arenas, the group’s future is bogged by a glaring lack of trust.
Proclaiming commitment to respect sovereignty and integrity of the country,
China implacably refuses to restore the status quo ante at the LAC, continues
to expand the CPEC project on the legitimate territory of India, Gilgit and
Baltistan and resorts to coercion as opposed to the stated position of peaceful
settlement of the crisis.
BRICS, which
has been a platform for discussing and deliberating issues of common concern of
developing countries successfully weathered speculations of its eventual
collapse with the establishment of the New Development Bank and a robust
Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). Unfortunately, BRICS group lacks a
consensus on various issues. Economic cooperation and sharing of
complementarities have been the cornerstone of BRICS have taken a back seat. Geopolitical
ambitions have become the driving force of the group now.
Amid Russia’s waning global influence,
assuming a leadership position, China in pursuit of “National Rejuvenation”
is attempting to use the platform to expand its global footprint and target the
Western policies. China is actively pursuing the expansion of BRICS. While some favour an expansion of the BRICS,
the transformation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into a “China
Club” warrants caution. The SCO was originally conceived out of the “Shanghai
Process” on the basis of Four (Russia+ three central Asian Countries) plus one,
China on the framework of Soviet-Sino border cooperation4.
The region
can’t risk turning another grouping into a China club. Hence, pulling the plug
on China’s pursuits, India insists on the guiding principles, procedures and
criteria for adding new members to prevent China from overriding the group and
pushing other countries to the margins. But in the process isn’t completely
blocking Chinese attempts. India has welcomed Bangladesh, UAE, Egypt and
Paraguay into the New Development Bank. Unlike other members, India refuses to
cower under China’s coercion and checks Beijing’s unbridled expansion spree. Latest
reports suggest that Iran and Argentina have applied to join the BRICS5.
Ostensibly,
India’s presence in the group is essential to counter an aggressive China and
its ambitions. With its uncanny diplomatic dexterity, India is balancing its
engagement with countries belonging to different groupings and maintaining
strategic autonomy that best suits its national interests.
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