The Quad: Revival and Relevance

“The Quad (Quadrilateral Dialogue)”, a concept, which created buzz ten years ago in diplomatic circles has become topic of phenomenal interest once again. The revivalism of The Quad, after a decade is clearly attributed to unremitting Chinese aggression and floundering American foreign policy. In 2006, Shinzo Abe, envisioned coming together of democratic nations and sought “the confluence of two seas”, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean for realizing the concept of “Broader Asia”. This zealotry in turn strengthened the emergence of the term, Indo-Pacific, which briefly found consonance with American political establishment as well. Abe even promoted the concept of formation of “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” rooted in a deep commitment to democratic values. Enthused by a positive response, a pragmatic doctrine of “Security diamond” comprising the democracies of the Indo-Pacific region-India, Japan, Australia, and US was proposed in 2007.  With a paradigm of ensuring free navigation, promoting free trade and safe guarding the region stretching from Indian Ocean to Western Pacific the maritime democracies infused fresh dynamic into the doctrine. In March 2007, Japan and Australia signed Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation setting the rubric for strong bilateral strategic relations, later, Japan signed similar framework agreement with India. By September 2007, the maritime democracies of the Indo-Pacific region held first ever joint naval exercises, Malabar in the Bay of Bengal. This Quadrilateral, which set off a new bench mark for cooperation, suffered a major blow after the newly elected Labor Party Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, withdrew from the Malabar exercises. Thus, the Quad, which started off with great enthusiasm, fizzled out.

Perturbed by overwhelming Chinese unilateralism and burgeoning power imbalance in Asia, Japan reached out to India and Australia, the regional powers to reinforce a rule-based world order. Australia’s wobbly stance, eventually thwarted the Quad in a nascent stage. At the height of Global recession, when the West was reeling under financial stress, Australia remained unperturbed. Canberra, firmly believed that its Chinese exports accounting for over 30% of its entire trade volume saved it from the dire economic crisis, as China’s demand kept its economy floating. This and China’s outrage at the Quad’s joint naval exercise as an attempt to contain it prompted Australia to withdraw from the Quad in 2008. China referred to the Quad cooperation as “Asian NATO” and went ballistic. Soon, Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi, announced Australia’s unwillingness towards Quadrilateral Dialogue. While the concept of coalition of maritime democracies, hasn’t vanquished, but it was deposed for time being. Even India was reluctant to revive the Quad, rattled by the prospect of upsetting China, Indian Defence Minister A K Anthony, summoned the Indian Naval Chief and ruled out the possibility of any further joint naval exercises. Also, quick succession of rapid political change in Japan, failed to pursue the Quad. From September 2007 to December 2012-Japan’s political leadership transitioned from Yasuo Fakuda, Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda.

China began to assert its power more vigorously. In 2010, President Obama shunned a possible G-2 kind of sharing of global power with China. As if awakened by burgeoning Chinese dominance in Asia, launched the Pivot to Asia doctrine in 2011 to assure America’s Asian alliance of its support. By 2012, Abe was re-elected who revived the Quad vociferously articulated the need for “peace, stability and freedom of navigation in the Pacific Ocean are inseparable from peace, stability and freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean”. Anxious of rapid developments in South China Sea and China’s renewed efforts to turn it into “Lake of Beijing”, Abe wrote a compelling piece on the need for the democracies to join hands. In late 2012, Abe informally urged that Britain and France should take active role in strengthening Asian security. He reminded that Britain has Five Power Defense Agreements with Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand and France positioned its fleet in Tahiti for Asian security. But UPA regime hardly evinced any interested in rejuvenating the idea of Quad. Discarding the reluctance NDA regime under Narendra Modi reached out to Japan. In the year 2015, Modi called for inclusion of Japan in the trilateral exercises showing signs of reinvigorating the idea of cooperation. Japan became part of the Malabar exercises in 2016.

But by 2013, China intensified efforts to consolidate its hegemony by extending its ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) over disputed regions of East China Sea. By brazenly disapproving the verdict permanent court of arbitration, in 2015, Beijing accentuated worst fears of the smaller regional neighbor of its overwhelming unilateralism and dominance. Growing inflexibility of China towards freedom of navigation through South China Sea crucial for the international trade has sparked new concerns among countries in the region. America’s inaction amidst China’s assertion of power intensely prompted Japan to revive the Quadrilateral Dialogue. In the meanwhile, increased Chinese penetration in administration, trade, politics, and college campus began to rattle Australia. Inundated by reports of threatening Chinese influence even in media, security and strategically important infrastructure projects, Australia offered to join this edition of Malabar Exercises. But India turned down Australian requests but expressed willingly obliged to continue with the AUSINDEX bilateral exercises.

Reenergized by spectacular electoral triumph, Abe began resurrection of Quadrilateral Dialogue officially. The new revival plan made a move to associate European powers. India which had its own reservations, about Australia, signaled its approval saying, “India is open to working with likeminded countries on issues that advance our interests and promote our view point”. Taking cue, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro, announced that initial level talks of the Quad along the sidelines of East Asia Summit meet in Manila. Accordingly, senior level officials from all the four countries met in Manila and markedly reemphasized the use of “Indo-Pacific” as opposed to “Asia-Pacific”. “Indo-Pacific” term not only reiterates India’s preeminence to the new coalition but refuses China’s centrality to the region. The Quad, is now increasingly viewed as another multilateral aimed at containing China and ensuring prevalence of rules-based order with secondary objectives of enhancing connectivity, countering terrorism, curtailing proliferation of nuclear weapons and promoting free trade. Ironically, with America embracing protectionism, liberal trade regime can be contradictory. Though fertile ground for cooperation between the countries remains containing China’s unilateralism, with lone common factor being democratic credentials strategists are skeptical about the extent and scope of cooperation. Further, all these countries have extensive trade relations with China.  Regarding the maritime cooperation, valid questions are raised in the context of interoperability. As US, Australia, Japan’s naval forces are based on American combat systems, Indian forces are Russian built. Despite these contradictions, emergence of The Quad, is all the more essential since, ASEAN, which evolved as a bulwark to contain China has now become fragile. China has effectively crippled the solidarity of ASEAN countries through coercive diplomacy. Further it must be recalled sceptics raised doubts about the survival of BRICS. Much to the chagrin of the strategists, despite its incipient discord, BRICS effectively developed a multilateral financial institute which has started issuing grants for infrastructural projects. Similarly, the Quad would eventually gain the support of nations like Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore which are wary of China’s penetrating aggression and dominance.

As of now, Quad must travel long to be reckoned as meaningful entity. Unlike other multilaterals, which issue a joint statement, countries individually released their own versions. Strikingly, there are subtle variations in each of these reports.

Above all, the Quad should be a moment of elation for India since its revival changed the existing connotation of Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. It also signifies marked shift in India’s approach of raising above the throes of ambiguities and sentimentalism. India partaking a role of responsible stakeholder in the maritime cooperation reflects a new change which is guided by self-interests. Delhi has always believed in a multipolar world and rightfully so, India unlike the other countries of the quad, stressed on the word “inclusive” in the core Quad agenda. Indian foreign policy is always guided by “Strategic autonomy”. Rightfully so, despite active engagement in the Quad, foreign ministers of India, Russia and China are meeting next month in Delhi. Moreover, India is well advised to be cautious since an inconsistent American South Asian Policy continues to surprise India.

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