China’s Coercive Water Diplomacy

At the height of Doklam stand-off when the World solely focused on hostilities between the Asian giants-India and China, Beijing sought to punish India covertly by withholding hydrological data regarding the water flows of Brahmaputra. Brahmaputra which originates in Tibet enters India at Arunachal Pradesh and these waters are an indispensable for the entire North-East region of India. India the lower riparian country had earlier suffered the inconsequential flooding due to sudden release of discharges by China, signed a five-year bilateral agreement for sharing hydrological data in 2013. Accordingly, China is mandated to share the daily hydrological and meteorological data of Brahmaputra river from three river monitoring stations in Tibet for the flood-prone season between May 15^th to Oct 15^th. India signed similar agreement with China for Sutlej river in 2015. While many countries including India, share the data for free as ruled by the Water Course Convention, China exchanges data upon payment. This year India made the payment but didn’t receive the data, Chinese foreign ministry attributed the lapse to upgradation of upstream data station. But Chinese lie was soon busted when BBC news report, found that China shared data with Bangladesh, another riparian country of Brahmaputra. Eventually, days before, resolution of Doklam standoff, Chinese mouth piece Global Times confounded Indian apprehensions reiterating that China withheld the data as it was irked by India boycotting the BRI (Belt Road Initiative) Summit held on May14-15^th (the mega flagship global connectivity project of China) and for alleged infringement of Chinese territorial sovereignty. It even threatened that China will not share the data until pulls out troops from Doklam. Despite, India’s upgraded flood-alert systems, in absence of the hydrological data, unprecedented water flows flooded Assam. Ironically, Assam suffered the double whammy of below normal monsoon rainfall and massive inundation.

Till now China have ruthlessly advanced its foreign policy goals through economic sanctions, stalling strategic exports, suspending Chinese tourism, and manipulating foreign-aid policy instruments. Of late, it has opened a new front of dexterously unleashing the strategic weapon of water. Having wrested control over Tibet through forceful annexation, China is now coercing nations leveraging the invaluable fresh water resources. About 46% of humanity depends on the major river water systems like Indus, Sutlej, Brahmaputra, Irrawady, Salween, Mekong, Karnali, originating from Tibetan plateau. Ever since 1950, China has been steadily building dams across the river water systems of Tibet initially to make arid Chinese lands arable and afforested massive tracts of lands reducing the water flows to downstream regions. To harness the strategic rivers China embarked on a relentless dam building process. Soon China not only controlled water flow to downstream regions but began selling hydroelectric power to neighboring countries. China even refused to sign the United Nations Water Convention (UNWC) adopted by 100 countries in 1997 indicating its strong desire to control water in Asia. China recently began construction of three dams across Brahmaputra-Dagu, Liacha, Jiexu and hasn’t officially communicated to India. Beijing is even seriously contemplating diverting the course of river even. Already India is reeling under the stress of less water flow with China stopping the flow of one of the tributaries of Brahmaputra. Experts conceded that once China finishes construction of all three dams, “Brahmaputra will become a seasonal river”.

Boosting its dam building spree, days after the first BRI summit, China signed a MoU with Pakistan for building the Bhasha and Bunji dams on the Indus in Gilgit-Baltistan area under the OBOR. Indus with 46% melted snow waters is a perennial river and offers huge potential for hydroelectric power generation. Predictably, China jumped in to firm up the deal with Pakistan to control this strategic river flows.  In June Chinese firm clinched a deal making 75% investment to build largest hydroelectric power project in Nepal over the Gandaki river asserting control over its waters and power generation.

Indeed, China indiscriminately exploited the Mekong river basin, the longest in the South-East Asia to augur its ambitions of being a hydro-hegemon. It built six mega dams in the upper reaches of Mekong river and many more in the downstream region in collaboration with lower riparian countries damaging the fragile ecosystem of Mekong river deltas. Numerous dams have changed the course of river. Calamitous building of dams created rifts between Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and downstream water flows to Vietnam reduced by 50%. Wetlands size have shrunk to half, fisheries have suffered, and economy of the downstream countries is now under threat. Interestingly, despite China controlling the waters flowing into 12 countries, it hasn’t signed a single water sharing agreement.

Recent report now claims that China is planning to divert water from the Yarlung Tsangpo, Chinese name for Brahmaputra in South Tibet to Taklimakan desert in the Xinjiang province. The Chinese engineers are making all preparations to build a 1000km tunnel to carry the river waters. Taklimakan and Gobi desert lie at the foot of the Tibetan plateau but fall in the rain shadow region hence they receive scanty rainfall.  China’s longest tunnel built to carry water in Liaoning province eight years ago is 85 km. As a preparative attempt, Chinese government green flagged the construction of 600km long tunnel in the geographically unstable, mountainous Yunnan province. The demonstration Yunnan- Guizhou water project, scheduled to be completed in 8 years is planned to carry three billion tons of water through a terrain similar to the Tibetan plateau. The challenges faced during its construction would greatly help China in building the proposed 1000km tunnel which can carry 10 to 15 billion tonnes of water. According to rough estimates, construction of one kilometer of tunnel would cost 1 billion yuan. China strongly believes that diversion of waters will make Xinjiang province prosperous. Drawing analogy to California, which suffered acute water shortage in 20^th century, China asserted that Xinjiang would bloom if water from Tsangpo is diverted to the region. In 1933, under the Central Valley project, water from northern California was diverted to San Joaquin Valley turning it into an agriculturally productive region.

Chinese engineers, admitted that water diversion plan would invite ire of India of Bangladesh which will be critically affected. But remained defiant that the current plan is more environmental friendly than construction of a slew of dams. They argued that “it won’t leave a mark on the surface for other countries or environmental activists to point fingers at”. But there is no denial that a project of this scale would interminably damage the ecosystem and the landscape of entire region.

Though China quickly denied the reports of water diversion project, experts warned that in 2015, China indicated that it had no plans to convert reclaimed islands in SCS (South China Sea) into military bases. Two years down the lane, China is operating sophisticated drones to carry supplies to bases in SCS. Similarly, in 1984, Premier Zhao said, “We do not engage in nuclear proliferation ourselves, nor do we help other countries develop nuclear weapons”. In less than two decades, China created two bullies, which are threatening the global security. Clearly, this project will have grave consequences for India. Brahmaputra waters are life-line for India. Livelihoods of millions of people are integrally linked with the potential flows of this river. By controlling inflow of Brahmaputra waters, China is planning to bring India to its knees. China’s unprecedented leverage will make India eternally vulnerable. An audacious China overpowered by hegemonic aspirations is unpredictable. India can hardly afford to ignore these developments.

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