Implacable Chinese Connection in Zimbabwean Regime Change

The situation in Zimbabwe is slowly unravelling. Interestingly, what began as a military coup is now assuming hues of political coup to oust President Robert Mugabe who has been in power for the past 37 years. Clearly, what is making this entire event more suspicious is covert Chinese nod for the military coup that is triggering transfer of power from the dictatorial Mugabe.

Unlike in many countries, since its independence in 1980, Zimbabwe thrived on the strong cohesion between the ruling party Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA). Indeed, there has been an unwritten agreement that civilian authority would be supreme. ZANU-PF, a Maoist front, spearheaded a guerilla kind of freedom war against the white-minority Ian Smith’s regime and eventually emerged as ruling party after independence. Since then ZNA personnel unequivocally pledged their loyalty to ZANU-PF and subsequently, strategists ruled out possibility of any military takeover or an eventual coup. But the hostilities between ZNA largely inundated with liberation war veterans and the political front began to simmer over a period of time. The 93-year old Mugabe’s deteriorating health and his second wife Grace Mugabe’s ambitious efforts to clinch power critically generated an uncertainty amongst war veterans. In a bid to strengthen her claims to power, Grace created an association G-40 faction comprising the younger generation who weren’t associated with the liberation war. But were enthusiastic in ushering Zimbabwe into twenty-first century after death of Robert Mugabe. Grace started reaching out to youth, women and smartly purged officials who didn’t comply with her political ambitions. Curiously, Mugabe turned a blind eye to these developments. Soon veterans felt threatened of their political relevance.

In the meanwhile, Emmerson Mnangagwa, a former veteran, who had immense support among the military and war veterans was appointed as vice-president in 2014. As Mugabe’s health deteriorated, Grace intensified her efforts to clinch the highest political position. She began to openly taunt Mnangagwa, as a snake who needs to be crushed at political rallies. Mnangagwa, known as “Ngwenya” or The Crocodile, colleague of Mugabe, having served as minister of defence monitored intelligence agencies. He has a formidable reputation and highly feared. He engineered some of the worst massacres in 1980, which led to killing of over 20,000 Ndebele tribes who had strong allegiance to the opposition. Lately, bowing to Grace’s pressure Mugabe began to accuse Mnangagwa of using “Witch Craft”. These allegations widened rifts between Mnangagwa’s Lacoste faction and G-40 faction. Sudden uncertainty and power tussle flared up with the expulsion of Mnangagwa from the Vice-President position on November 6^th.

Fearing death, Mnangagwa attempted to flee Harare with his loyalists. But with severe checks imposed along major transit routes, he managed to reach South Africa through the labyrinthine smuggling pathways. During this period, Mnangagwa remained in contact with his ally General Constantine Chiwenga, a Mugabe loyalist. Chiwenga travelled to Beijing citing official work and met Mnangagwa who reached China. Both these men who obtained military training in China discussed their plans of a coup with Chinese army official Li Zuocheng. Interestingly, these two men struck several millions worth diamond mining deal with China. Reports suggest that they have swindled over $15billion from the state exchequer through these deals.  General Chiwenga who arrived Beijing as state guest espoused that “Zimbabwe and China are all-weather friends” and expressed “willingness to deepen exchanges and cooperation in all fields with China to promote rapid development of bilateral state and military relations between the two countries”. China is the largest foreign investor of Zimbabwe and fourth largest trading partner. Recently China constructed $100 million Zimbabwe National Defence College and $200million Long Cheng Plaza shopping mall in Harare and pledged to build Parliament Complex. Zimbabwe’s ties with China dates to 1979 when the Rhodesian Guerilla fighters request for arms and weapons was turned down by Soviet Union and they approached China. Beijing supplied the needed supplies to Zimbabwe. In 1980, independent Zimbabwe established diplomatic relations with China. Ever since under the “Look East” strategy, Zimbabwe deepened ties with China to rally against West which was highly critical of Mugabe’s ruthless actions. Zimbabwe purchased arms and ammunition from China and relations were strong till 2008, after which there was a sharp down turn following a controversy regarding the overland shipment of arms through South Africa. Zimbabwe during this period tried to reengage with the West. Despite this hiccup, China had been a biggest market for Zimbabwean tobacco, cotton, and minerals. While Zimbabwe imported electronics and finished products. In the past four decades, China provided technical support to ZANU-PF and both countries established strong military contacts.

In 1993 Mugabe prompted military veterans to forcibly take over the land possessed by the white-minority without compensation. He undermined the democratic institutions, flouted the rules of law and destroyed all his rivals. His economic policies rooted in Leninism and Marxism inflicted devastating blow to otherwise prosperous economy. Hyperinflation became a norm, overwhelmed by skyrocketing inflation, Zimbabwe even made US dollar its currency for a while. Agriculture was neglected, thousands of refugees fled Zimbabwe. Though elections were regularly held, Mugabe increasingly resorted to violence to contain protests and won back the trust of military with land ownerships. Irked by ruthless policies US and UK imposed sanctions in 2002. While the west loathed Mugabe for the excesses and gross human rights violations. China firmly stood by the rogue regime. China in 2015 conferred  highest honor “Confucius Peace Prize” on Mugabe for supposedly “injecting fresh energy into the global quest for harmony”. Additionally, Xi on his state visit to Harare, pledged $4 billion investments in power, infrastructure and pharmaceutical sectors. While China began to pour investments in Zimbabwe, Mugabe called for strict enforcement of Indigenization Law mandating the foreign investors to have a black majority ownership. Mnangagwe opposed Indigenization Law which hampered Chinese investments and even proposed use of Chinese Yuan as legal tender along with other currencies. Mugabe’s Indigenization Law spooked Chinese investors. China expressed its dissatisfaction over absence of Mugabe’s succession plan and clearly favored Mnangagwe who favored limiting indigenization law. Zimbabwean expert Matyszak even acknowledged, “When Mugabe went on a visit to China last year to try and seek some sort of economic help, we were told that the Chinese had said they wouldn’t provide any assistance and investments would be severely curtailed until we sort out the succession issue, because they don’t see any political and therefore economic stability in Zimbabwe until Mugabe leave office. And they were encouraging Mugabe to put Mnangagwa in as successor”

Dwindling economy and internal bickering within the ZANU-PF intensified. Mugabe’s decision to fire Mnangagwa on November 6^th hastened the crisis. By Nov 10^th military forces joined hands with Mnangagwa in China and together, they enacted coup on November 15^th to prevent G-40 faction from taking over reigns from 93-year old Robert Mugabe. Security forces arrested Robert Mugabe and his wife Grace. Since Mugabe remained defiant and refused to resign, Mnangagwa and Chiwenga stirred up a political coup by taking refuge in Country’s constitution. Invoking the Section 97 (3), Senate and National Assembly passed a resolution to institute impeachment motion. Under this constitutional provision, any President or vice-president can be removed from office on charges of “serious misconduct, failure to obey, uphold of defend constitution or inability to perform the functions of the office because of physical or mental incapacity”. Accusing Mugabe as “source of instability” for allowing his wife to usurp constitutional power ruling party moved the motion in Parliament. It was seconded by opposition on Tuesday. In the meanwhile, Zimbabweans tired of the dictatorial regime, intensified protests and appealed President to step down. Even the Southern African Development Community (SADC) urged Mugabe to resign. At the time of writing this piece, news broke out that Mugabe submitted his resignation to Speaker of the Parliament ending the eight-day long political crisis. Ever since Zimbabwean independence, the country was ruled by Robert Mugabe and his resignation will usher the country into a new era. Now speculations are rife that Vice-President Mnangagwe will become interim President.

Zimbabweans are elated with this new development and welcomed a change. Political analysts observed that transfer of power may not change the fortunes of the country since perpetrators are least bothered about the welfare of the people. Clearly, profound changes in political and economic policies are unlikely.

Strategists contend that China’s involvement in Zimbabwean politics stems from its concerns of business and strategic interests. China is focused on stability of Zimbabwean regime. It firmly believed that transfer of power to Grace Mugabe would spell disaster for its investments in Zimbabwe. While Beijing favored a smooth transition of power it is not concerned about the ideological commitment (democratic or non-democratic) of the government.  

Interestingly, though China continues to claim that it has no role in Zimbabwean power transfer, China’s closeness to Zimbabwe, ruling party’s allegiance to Maoist ideology indicates otherwise. Even the two leaders who perpetrated coup, received military and ideological lessons from China.

Unlike in 2011, when Beijing supported Libyan ruler Muammer Gaddafi for its oil interests, it didn’t support Zimbabwean parochial dictator. But certainly, there is a change in China’s stance of its avowed non-interference in affairs of foreign countries proclaimed in early 1950’s. With its rising global stature and burgeoning strategic interests in Africa, Beijing is shifting its position. To safeguard its investments and oil needs, China actively intervened in Sudan and South Sudan political crisis. Zimbabwe will be no different. As expected, China will not care about restoration of democracy and rule of law in Zimbabwe. But with two Chinese henchmen at the helm of affairs in Zimbabwe, China might be assured of its interests. In the meanwhile, mounting Chinese investments notwithstanding Zimbabwe’s inability to repay debt will invariably exacerbate Harare’s financial crisis plunging it into a quagmire of debt trap. Unfortunately, for all the jubilation and celebrations marking the fall of a despotic ruler, Zimbabweans hopes of economic revival might still be a day dream….  

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