South Korea Presidential Elections: Challenges ahead for President Moon

Registering an emphatic victory in the 19^th Presidential Elections, Moon Jae-in of Democratic Party of South Korea was sworn in as President immediately after the National Election Commission announced results.  Drawing down curtains on the spate of sporadic protests that plagued South Korea after the implication of President Park Guen-hye in political scandal and her subsequent impeachment. The Presidential elections initially slated for December 20^th, 2017 were rescheduled for May 9^th 2017 as Park was officially removed from Presidential post after the National assembly unanimously voted for her ouster on March 10^th 2017. As per constitutional ruling, Presidential elections should be held on or before 60 days of her impeachment. In the interim period, Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn functioned as the acting President.

To begin with 15 candidates have registered for the Presidential elections, of which two resigned before the election date. Representatives from all the six national parties contested the elections. These included-Moon Jae-in of liberal Democratic party of Korea, Hong Jun-pyo of conservative Liberty Korea Party, Ahn Cheol-soo Centrist People’s party, Yoo Sueng-Min of liberal conservative Bareun Party, Sim Sang-jung of the Progressive Justice Party and the Pro-Park Geun-Hye Conservative Saenuri party represented by Cho Won-jin. Exit Polls have predicted landslide victory for Moon from the Democratic Party. Along the expected lines, in a contest that witnessed massive voter turnout in 20 years, Moon, who was runner-up in 2012 elections, emerged as the winner with 41% of the votes. The new president now inherits a country mired in corruption, imperiled by a nuclear North Korea and battling inconsistent leadership overtures of US. Interestingly these three aspects constituted the core agenda of the Presidential elections. The political establishment of South Korea has been dominated by two parties- Conservatives and Liberals who represent Centre-right and Centre-Left in Korean Parliament.

South Korean political establishment was by and large dominated by conservatives who were highly critical of favorable relations with North Korea. Moon’s predecessor Park, ordered the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) in North Korea set up by earlier Liberal regimes. KIC besides providing gainful employment was a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation.

President Moon of Liberal party born to refugees who fled from North Korea in a small island off South Korean coast has humble origins. He had been an excellent student and took active role in protests suspension of civil and political rights during the dictatorial regime of Park Chung-hee (father of Park Guen-hye). Having been prosecuted as a student activist, he failed to obtain a government job but became human rights lawyer nurturing political ambitions. In 2003, he was appointed as chief of staff by President Roh Moo-hyun where he had first opportunity to administer a public office. Moon is a strong advocate of Sunshine Policy, which is based on Korea’s traditional way of pandering to enemy by offering generous gifts. South Korea thus, officially formulated a policy of encouraging interaction and offering economic assistance in 1998. The architect of the policy, President Kim Dae-jung was conferred Nobel Prize in 2000 for successfully implementing this policy. The two major outcomes of the Sunshine Policy were establishing KIC in North Korea where South Korean companies employed the labor from DPRK and opening of Mount Kumgang, a tourist spot in North Korea for South Koreans. Despite generous offers from South Korea, North Korea pursued the nuclear weapons development program throughout the 2000’s. Following the nuclear and missile tests by North Korea in 2006, South Korea stalled its shipments and issued a military alert. In 2008, President Lee Myung-bak of Grand National party changed South Korea’ stance. He announced that economic cooperation through KIC can’t continue till DPRK resolves international standoffs over nuclear weapons. Subsequently Mount Kumgang was closed for South Koreans and the South Korea Unification Ministry declared that Sunshine Policy was a failure in 2010. Eventually, Conservative party under Park Guen-hye who adopted a rather tough stand towards North Korea was elected to power in 2012 elections. Her infamous ouster and impeachment created a domestic turmoil.

At a time when raising tensions in Korean peninsula is sending jitters across the globe and kindled the deleterious spark of a plausible World War-III, the strategic calculations and vision of new President Moon has immense significance. Rightly so, asserting his stance which is so typical of the liberal democratic party, Moon in his first presidential address confirmed that he is open to visiting Pyongyang to de-escalate tensions if needed. He also asserted South Korean’s strong faith in alliance partner US and reiterated that he will “sincerely negotiate” with the US and key trading partner China over the deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea.  South Korea besides bearing the brunt of missile of North Korea is currently facing economic sanctions of China which was angered by THAAD deployment. China strongly protested missile-system deployment citing that powerful radars will spy it military operations. He added that, “I will quickly move to solve the crisis in national security. I am willing to go anywhere for peace of the Korean Peninsula-if needed, I will fly immediately to Washington. I will go to Beijing and I will go to Tokyo. If conditions shape up, I will go to Pyongyang”. Though he instilled great confidence and hope in the young electorate who resoundingly supported his candidature, Democratic party falls short of majority in Parliament to pass key resolutions.  Currently Democratic Party has 40% majority as against the needed 60%. The next national assembly elections will be held in 2020. Ironically, for Moon reining in on the military rhetoric of President Trump might be the toughest challenge than taming the adamant Kim Jung Un. Moon have even pledged to restart the six party negotiations-including both Koreas, US, China, Russia and Japan. He strongly advocates two tier policy wherein South Korea would be open to any dialogue with North Korea but would continue to press for economic sanctions on North Korea to denuclearize the peninsula.

On domestic front, the major challenge for Moon is rising unemployment, corruption, high handedness of business conglomerates (chaebols) and widening socio-economic inequalities. The influence of corporate conglomerates touched new heights under Park’s regime. Arrest of Samsung Chief Jay Y Lee on charges of bribing President’s close aides’ testimonies prevalence of massive corruption. In South Korea, corporate conglomerates are known to oil the political engines and believed to have phenomenal influence in steering election campaigns as well. Previous regimes which shot into power on the promise of downsizing the influence of corporates have largely failed in taming them. Currently, there is growing discontent among the younger generation as declining economic growth has failed to offer employment opportunities South Korea has the highest levels of per capita college graduates and hence the frustration of educated, unemployed youth is palpable. On the other hand, despite having good social security system for the old, South Korea has the highest level of old-age poverty among the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Countries.

The labor market of South Korea has two-tiers, where the permanent workers have good pay, perks and promotion while the temporary workers receive less pay devoid of job protection. Mostly middle-age people are preferred for permanent jobs. With looming economic slowdown and Korean businesses moving to foreign lands employment opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. This new trend is becoming detrimental to youth. To improve economy, major structural reforms must be instituted and with conservative party failing to improve the economy, South Korea elected Moon who enthused voters with his new style of politics.  Unlike in other countries, where people embraced the Right-wing parties for effective solutions, dejected by the political scandal of President Park from Conservative Party, Liberals who spoke of uprooting the evils afflicting South Korea were perceived as agents of change. The older generation which witnessed Korean war are wary of Moon’s mild confrontational stance while the younger voters rallied Moon voting him in large numbers. Older generation largely favored the nationalist approach of the conservative and Centre-right parties.

While there is a sense of discomfort, regarding Moon’s election as he once famously said that South Korea should learn to say “No” Washington, people have high expectations from him. In fact, US may have its reservations with the new President, as he was highly critical of installing THAAD and promised to review the decision if voted to power. But as of now, experts strongly opine that believe that under Moon, who is unequivocal supporter of reunification of Korea, inter-Korean tension might reduce. Further, the KIC, a joint venture of North-South Korea which was closed last might be reopened. 

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