Strategic interests hold the key to India’s FTAs

Wuhan virus pandemic and Ukraine crisis has upended the prevalent geoeconomics and geopolitical scenarios. Security concerns and geopolitics always defined the contours of strategic alliances and the World order.  Rapid economic activity with the advent of globalisation, free market system and cross border trading in the post-cold war era steadily took front seat over the geopolitics.

Soon geoeconomics became the defining feature of the World order. Economies with established supremacy in global trade activity eventually adorned the Peking Order of global hierarchy. While the importance of the geopolitics hasn’t diminished altogether but economic priorities dominated the groupings.

Enamoured by the benefits of globalisation and a deeply interconnected world, “lets trade more” became the favourite mantra of nations. Countries began to rely on economic cooperation and trade to serve as force multiplier to strengthen the bilateral ties. Thus, geoeconomics began to dominate the strategic partnerships. With time, geoeconomics became the lynchpin of foreign policy agenda for countries. Subsequently, strategic interests and historical hostilities took a back seat.

By the turn of 21^st century, mixing politics with economics, Chinese started wielding trade as political weapon. Punishing the countries that refuse to toe its line with economic coercion, China effectively exploited economic reliance to support its foreign policy objectives. Using the bilateral pacts to punish its rivals, imposing economic reprisals, China rode roughshod over international rules of trade.  China used the trade cudgel only when it has less to lose. Carefully calibrating its benefits, Beijing consciously dehyphenated trade from its objectives when it is major beneficiary of the bilateral trade. While it coerced South Korea, Mongolia, Norway, Lithuania with reprisals, Beijing, which enjoys a lopsided trade relationship refrained from halting trade transactions with India despite the prolonged standoff with India.

Not keen on derailing their economic interests, nations lulled into complacency owing to their reliance on China refused to challenge its blatant violation and mercantilism. While small countries suffered and paid heavy price, nations failed to impose sanctions continued to trade with China which is deeply integrated into the global institutions.

While there has been a growing pushback from countries against China and its opaque trade policies, it reached to its hilt in the aftermath of Wuhan virus outbreak in China. Being largest goods exporter, the supply chains suffered major disruptions and global markets reeled under shortages of essential goods and supplies. China’s aggressive posturing in South China Sea threatening the peace and stability of Indo-Pacific region drove nations with mutual interests in the region to engage closely. Together, pandemic triggered economic security threat promoted nations to reassess their geoeconomics and geopolitical decisions.

Security threats coupled with uncertainties and vulnerabilities in trade supplies propelled the countries in the Indo-Pacific region to launch Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI). While the driving force in unveiling the SCRI by the three Indo-Pacific countries India, Japan and Australia is to reduce reliance on China, its core objective is to build- “free, fair, inclusive, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment and in keeping its markets open”¹. Notably, the initiative has been preceded by security talks where countries have constructively engaged in consensus building of multi polar Indo-Pacific which is free and open.

India and Japan enjoy a Special Strategic and Global Partnership while India and Australia have elevated ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed mutual logistics sharing agreement, similar to one signed with Japan. Recently, leaders Modi and Morrison agreed to hold institutionalised annual summits making Australia the third country to have such engagement with India. The other two being Japan and Russia. This substantial revitalisation of ties based on mutual interests, shared values of democracy, rule of law and further reinforced by geopolitical compulsions have nearly posited India and Australia as “like-minded countries” despite their differences over Ukraine.

This strengthened engagement which will now encompass spheres like political, military and diplomatic engagements has culminated in the signing of India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), a milestone which eluded both countries for a decade.

Absence of dynamism, ambitious target setting and a laggard approach towards geoeconomics have plagued India’s economic resurgence. Consequently, India’s exports stagnated and New Delhi fared very poorly when compared to China which actively inked FTAs and extended its supremacy in global trade. But post pandemic disruption in global supplies, China’s mercantilist and opaque trade practices elicited a push back from EU and other countries towards China. Wary of China’s unfair trade practices, countries are now strategically allying with other countries. This has opened an opportunity for India.

Indeed, China’s punitive trade tariffs, gross interference in domestic politics of Australia, penetration and acquisition of strategic industries by stealth, regulatory hurdles on Australian imports, Beijing’s growing influence in Indo-Pacific Islands its traditional strategic sphere of influence have irrevocably dented the Australia-China ties. To diversify trade, explore huge Indian markets and strengthen the vision of FOIP, Australia evinced lot of interest in inking an early harvest agreement.

India’s FTA with Australia and a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with UAE in February demonstrate that strategic interests are guiding India’s economic partnerships. Indeed, in this swiftly changing world of our times, countries are trying to balance the twin tools of geopolitics and geoeconomics to cater to their national interests.

Deftly making the right choice of junking multilateral trade agreements essentially dominated by China, India turned its focus towards bilateral trade agreements. With pandemic necessitating the need to rejig the economy, India proactively stepped up efforts to reenergise trade ties with strategic partners and preferably the largest markets for Indian exports. Factoring geopolitical aspects, New Delhi gave major fillip to trade negotiations with countries with whom India enjoyed strong strategic partnership.

India’s new approach is evident from the choice of the FTA partners. Tellingly, India has sealed FTA with UAE and Australia, members of the touted “Western Quad” and “the eastern Quad”. Infusing trust and making the mutually beneficial win-win approach a basic paradigm, India is proactively pursuing FTAs with natural allies.

Geopolitics and geoeconomics are intricately connected. Strikingly, geopolitics takes a precedence when security and territorial integrity are under threat. While the war in Ukraine has hindered global growth, aggravated inflationary pressures, the high oil prices have compounded the process of economic recovery. Additionally, it has heightened and accelerated the security threats from Indo-Pacific to Europe.  At this juncture, nations are cautiously treading a path of consciously allying with natural partners refocusing their energies on the traditional geopolitics.  

India is a big political opportunity for the European countries. After the failure of the EU-China talks, seeking alternatives, a seven-member European Parliament delegation essentially a fact-finding team arrived in India to revive and resuscitate the stalled trade negotiations. Aside the strategic interests, India’s perspective of renewable energy and green hydrogen initiatives which are in line with Europe’s priority to be fossil fuel independent is presenting fresh possibilities for new trade policies².

One of the major aspects of India-Australia ECTA is to decouple economy from China. So, this ECTA is not one off the event, but would serve as stepping stone to similar agreements with UK and EU. After India-UAE FTA, talks with GCC countries and Israel gathered pace.  Strategic congruencies and vast economic opportunities firmly position Indian as a cogent partner for FTAs. With strategic interests dominating the landscape of the foreign policy canvass of countries, the west is seeking to heighten its engagement with a democratic India.  

Notwithstanding, India’s neutral stance on Ukraine crisis, with strategic interests holding the sway, UK Prime Minister arrived in India to give fresh momentum to India-UK FTA.

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Close Encounters: Lessons from Five Influential Battles in History

At a time when the geopolitical environment is mired by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict with no end in sight, the book- “Close Encounters: Lessons from Five Influential Battles in History” by author Abhijit Kothiwale is bound to pique the curiosity of genuine book readers. Battles are as old as human history. History is replete of battles. Pitched battles have always been the defining points redrawing the contours and effective progress of the parties that have crossed swords at the battle fields. While the enormity, impact and sophistication has perhaps evolved over the period of time, battles have been instrumental in the rise and fall of civilisations. Battles determine fate of communities, kingdoms, countries, empires and even civilisations.

Battle besides being a platform for show of strength has been an act where warring sides try to put their best foot forward to secure their interests. A multitude of factors needs to be configured properly or have to fall in place to render a party victorious. But whatever be the case, the fallout of the battles has always impacted the progress and development of civilisations altogether.

Even now, the world is at war and it becomes more pertinent to us to drawn lessons from some of the important battles that have changed the trajectory altogether. It is well known fact that history is written by victors- who hailed the winners and showed losers in a poor light. Consequently, a one-sided interpretation of the historical events has continued to dominate the discourse. This in turn prompted people to label a civilisation based on these bigoted perspectives. These perspectives by extension continued to weigh large on the collective psyche of the people as well.

Unfortunately, civilisations as such are labelled based on their ability to trump the intruders and defend their land. India, which has faced uninterrupted assaults by a barrage of invaders was by and large viewed through this lens. Defeat in pivotal battles at the hands of invaders was nonchalantly attributed to some character flaw as such. They were duped to believe that they deserved to lose and were destined to enslavement.

This irredeemable indolent narrative was used as a potential weapon by the colonists to demoralise and weaken the fighting spirit of the Indians. Even before the actual war, colonial powers employed these psych-ops against the collective rebellion of the Indians to demoralise them. This inferiority complex or trait has been wantonly grilled into the minds of the Indians.

Creating divisions and planting in an illusionary defeatist attitude, Indians were led to believe that they are destined to lose. This narrative is wielded even today to weaken the citizen. Facing both internal and external enemies, it is extremely important for a country like India to invest energies and intellect to undertake a dispassionate analysis of major battles that changed the direction of our civilisation identity.

This book, ventures to offer such an objective account of the major battles in the history of India. To make it more interesting and to drive in home the message that a victory in the battle is essentially hinged on several aspects, the author presents an abridged and non-partisan account of battles between two major civilisations as well- fall of Constantinople in 1453 and Siege of Vienna in 1683.

The choice of the battles chosen by the author from Indian history is quite instructive. The book investigates the Battle for Delhi 1857, the Battle of Plassey in 1757 and the Battle of Colachel 1741. While bitter loses in the former two battles have pushed India into the hackles of the colonialism, the meticulous battle strategy of King Marthanda Verma in the Battle of Colachel has conclusively repelled the Dutch from establishing its base in India.

This book besides offering a dispassionate analysis of the major battles in history and conscientiously factors in various aspects that have heralded the course of the battle and changed the outcomes.

Written in a very simple language, catering to the consumption of teenagers, the book presents an unbiased account of the events in the run up to the battles. To make the book more interesting, the author might consider including maps to help reader to better appreciate the challenges posed by various geographies. The book harps on every minute detail and military strategy that paved way for the victory in the battle. Lucidly concluding and reinforcing the various aspects of the battle, the author made a decent job in helping the readers understand the critical role played by various tangible and intangible inputs that go into a war preparation.

Analysing the panoply of ingredients that determine the outcome of the war such as- “leadership, strategy, weapons, motivation and ideology, momentum, preparation and attention to detail in planning, turning points and close calls”, the author draws attention to most underrated facet of any battle and rightly quotes Napolean who once said, “I would rather have lucky generals than good ones”. The role played by luck is often discounted. But these chance events, proved to be turning points that changed the course of the war. Finally, the author appeals the administration to make right investments and create institutions to meet any kind of challenge and impels the government to fashion a robust military doctrine.

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Coming of Age of Indian Diplomacy: India-US summit and 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

Ukraine crisis has upended the geopolitical calculus. Strategic congruence which is the cornerstone of bilateral partnerships has come under strain in numerous cases. Indeed, the impetuous remarks of the US deputy NSA Daleep Singh’s on consequences of violating sanctions against Russia has threatened to wreck the India-US relationship. Against these odds, both countries successfully concluded the fourth edition of 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Defying the grist of the rumour mills that predicted a doom for the India-US ties, in a testament to the shared commitment and strategic understanding, leaders of both countries held a virtual summit preceding the 2+2 dialogue.

Setting the tone for the engagement, leaders Prime Minister Modi and President Biden affirmed that strengthening of the Indo-US comprehensive global strategic partnership would accrue “tremendous benefits to the two countries and would contribute to the global peace, prosperity and stability”¹, read the MEA statement. The White House press release stated, “they emphasized their shared commitment, as leaders of the world’s largest democracies, to respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations in the Indo-Pacific and beyond”². In fact, the press releases of both countries had set the agenda for the 2+2 Dialogue. EAM Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met their US counterparts Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Defence Secretary Llyod Austin and held wide ranging discussions to expand and cement the clean energy, military, defence, technology, economic cooperation and people to people ties.

Indeed, the 4^th edition of the 2+2 which marks 75^th year of India’s independence and establishment of Indo-US bilateral ties sought to “promote a resilient, rules-based international order that safeguards sovereignty and territorial integrity, uphold democratic values and promote peace and prosperity for all”³. While the mainstay of Indo-US ties has been convergence of strategic interests, India’s stand on Ukraine crisis has unsettled the US.

To American frustration, despite intimidation, India remained unfazed and stoically maintained a neutral stand. India’s neutrality perceived as pro-Russian stance has been at the root of this contention even though India has unequivocally condemned Bucha killings and called for an independent investigation.  In fact, India was among one of the first countries to extend humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and dispatched three tranches of aid including medical supplies till now.

US is facing a major strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific in the form of belligerent China. Instructively, with the US turning its eyes away from Indo-Pacific due to its “Russian syndrome”, China dominated the space. Reworking its initiatives and unremittingly pursuing economic diplomacy, Beijing began occupying the strategic spaces abandoned by the US. Pushing into the Eurasian space, Middle East and South east Asia, Beijing slowly pulling these regions into it orbit. The West’s 2014 punitive sanctions post Crimean annexation firmed the Sino-Russian alliance, the current round of weaponization of trade, currencies and international isolation of Russia has cemented the “no limits friendship” of Russia and China.

Guided by commitment to democracy and pluralism, India and the US are natural partners.  Further, their growing interest to promote a resilient, rules-based international order and strategic convergence towards free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) have significantly brought them closer.

Firefighting China’s menacing presence into the Oceania currently, the need to partner with India to counter China dawned on America. Additionally, India’s reputation as net security provider of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), formidable attributes for a steady economic rise, the common pursuit of FOIP and close collaboration through the Quad Security Dialogue weighed heavily. Resultantly, displaying a spark of ingenuity and constructive engagement, disallowing the contentions to mire the relationship, countries held 2+2 dialogue and chartered out a blue print for a pragmatic strategic partnership.

Reaffirming commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, the 2+2 reiterated dedication to constructive agenda of Quad which included reviewing the Quad working groups on vaccines, climate change, infrastructure, space, critical and emerging technologies. In fact, the Quad Vaccine Initiative made remarkable progress and Cambodia became the first country to receive 325,000 doses of Made in India Covid-19 vaccines⁴. The 2+2 dialogue reviewed various facets of the cooperation besides the initiatives of the Quad.

Under the ambit of the global partnership, both sides recognised the importance of reliable internet and safe cyberspace and reaffirmed to 2021 reports of UN Open Ended Working Group and UN Group of Governmental Experts and countries confirmed intent to work closely to prevent usage of cyberspace for criminal activities. US welcomed India’s launch of new joint National Investigation Officers Training of Trainers Course in collaboration with the UN for multilateral peacekeeping force training.

Countries discussed the global and regional issues such as the need for an inclusive government in Afghanistan, cessation of violence in Myanmar, urgent implementation of the ASEAN Five Point Consensus, economic crisis and political disturbances in South Asia. Condemning terrorism, countries directly called on Pakistan to take immediate, sustained and irreversible action to prevent the use of its territory for any terrorist activities.

As part of India-US Statement of Guiding Principles on Triangular Cooperation for Global Development, both countries through their agencies, Development Partnership (DPA) and USAID (United States Agency for International Development) decided to expand triangular cooperation with third countries in Asia and Africa.

Both countries having denounced the Belt and Road Initiative have affirmed interest to promote sustainable and reliable infrastructure development through Blue Dot Network and Build Back Better World, and support disaster impacted countries through India’s Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).

Upward trajectory of bilateral trade surpassing the $113 billion in goods has inexorably turbo charged the relations. Riding on the wave of economic cooperation, countries have expedited talks to remove trade barriers and improve ease of doing business through India-US Trade Policy Forum. Reconvening the India-US Commercial Dialogue and CEO forum, they underlined the need for Critical and Emerging Technologies to advance cooperation in information technology, space technology, AI, quantum science, semiconductors, biotechnology and STEM. Significantly, even negotiations for Investment Incentive Agreement (IIA) have reached an advanced stage.

The major thrust of bilateral energy cooperation has been clean energy technology. But a volatility in energy markets could threaten orderly and predictable global energy transition. India reinforced the nascent connect between the stability of fuel prices and climate change action. Given India’s commitment to climate change, Indian ministers appealed US to stop targeting India for its measly imports from Russia.

In the past three editions of 2+2 dialogue, India and US signed various foundational agreements that enhanced strategic cooperation in terms of interoperability, geospatial information exchange and logistics support. Registering another milestone, countries signed MoU on Space Situational Awareness for bilateral space cooperation and to ensure safety of outer space environment. This comes in the backdrop of ISRO and NASA joint launch of NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite to collect vital data in tackling climate crisis. Interestingly, around the same time, Russia and China have also reached an agreement for joint exploration of Moon and Mars.

Other notable flagship initiatives mulled by both sides include establishment of Defense Space Dialogue, AI Dialogue, India-US Education and Skills Development Working Group and continuation of Defense Cyber Dialogue.   

Military cooperation has been a major dynamic of India-US partnership. In addition to the ongoing bilateral and multilateral defense exercises such as MALABAR, MILAN, TIGER TRIUMPH, YUDH ABHYAS, VAJRA PRAHAR, COPE and RED FLAG, furthering maritime cooperation, US announced India’s joining of the Combined Maritime Force as an associate partner in Indian Ocean.

India’s reliance of Russia for defense purchases are now under scanner. To wean India away from Russia, US must position itself as a trusted and reliable defense partner. To promote India’s domestic capabilities, both countries are now seeking to work closely on coproduction, co-development, cooperative testing of the advanced systems and Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities and planning new projects under the India-US Defence Technology and Trade Initiatives such as counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform³.

India is currently the third largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), sixth largest in absolute terms (GDP). With an enviable demographic dividend, better business and investment environment, biggest consumer markets, stable government, India is the most sought-after emerging economy to partner. Through quick succession of FTAs with emerging economies India is lucrative place to trade.  Ticking all the right boxes needed for strategic synergy and geo-economic orientation, India firmly positioned herself as a pivot for global rebalance.

Indeed, assertively claiming her right place on global stage, India is now repudiating prejudiced criticism. EAM Jaishankar’s hard hitting response to India’s oil imports from Russia- “if you’re looking at (India’s) energy purchases from Russia, I’d suggest your attention should be on Europe. We buy some energy necessary for our energy security. But I suspect, looking at figures, our purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon”⁵. Besides, his reply to a question by a reporter on “why not condemn Russia’s invasion (of Ukraine)?”. Jaishankar countered, “I prefer to do it my way and articulate it my way… We’ve made statements… We’re against the conflict”⁶.

India is always taken for task by the Western media and the so progressive democrats on the human rights issue. In fact, the Indian delegation remained silent when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s took a swipe at India’s human rights. But setting the record straight on the human rights aspects and attributing it to American lobbies and vote banks, in one of his sharpest rebuttals, Jaishankar said, “People are entitled to have views about us. We are also entitled to have views about their lobbies and vote banks. We will not be reticent. We also have views on other people’s human rights, particularly when it pertains to our community”⁷. Jaishankar’s riposte is more telling given three Sikhs were attacked in New York this week.

In a similar vein, demonstrating India’s refusal to be intimidated by the CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), Jaishankar said, “it is their legislation whatever has to be done has to be done by them”⁷.  India-US dialogue and the public perception of the US are often stung by the unwarranted brazen bigotry of the media which spews a narrative contrary to the policy. This has inadvertently seeded a public distrust towards US in India.

Masterfully, addressing the issue and offering a reality check, Jaishankar astutely highlighted the adversities of such a dichotomy. “People in the administration, people dealing with policy, they are well-informed and in many ways they understand where India is coming from. At the same time, I would quite honestly say the narrative, the public narrative, sometimes is very, very different”^8.

Trust and mutual respect are quintessential to foster a seamless partnership. Reinforcing the need to decimate these misunderstanding and partisanship, interacting with Howard University students Jaishankar suggested, “for our ties to grow, it is equally necessary that there is a better understanding of India and the World on the part of young Americans. Your appreciation of a civilisational state and a fellow democratic polity that is daily overcoming enormous odds is essential. After all, we are natural partners only when our people have a strong sense of connection”^9.

On their five-day visit to the US for the 2+2 dialogue, the Indian delegation besides affirming a firm conviction to build a robust partnership has left no stone unturned to address the seething misunderstandings and issues of contention.

India is now a rising middle power and the colonial lens sported by commentariat and the influential lobbies are posing insurmountable hurdles for an effective trust building exercise and a longstanding time-tested relationship. During their visit, along side putting in place a framework for comprehensive strategic global partnership, the delegation has invariably set the terms of engagement and demonstrated their unwillingness to be subdued. India expects the US to walk the talk and treat India as an equal partner.

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Nepal Prime Minister Deuba recasts bilateral ties on his India visit

At a time when India’s neighbourhood is roiled in turmoil, Prime Minister of the Himalayan country, Nepal, made traditional first port of call to New Delhi. Nepal Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba who took charge in July 2021 following domestic political bickering for the fifth time, arrived in India on a three-day long visit on April 1^st. This visit is the first by a Nepali Prime Minister in four years since the aftermath of the boundary row and assumes great significance in terms of bolstering the Indo-Nepal friendship.

Nepal’s objection to the inclusion of Kalapani in India’s political map in November 2019 and inauguration of link road to Mansarovar through Lipulekh in Pithoragarh in May 2020, stoked tensions between the two countries. Asserting its claims over the region Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli released a new map containing Indian territories of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal. This border dispute eventually impaired the bilateral ties.

Nonetheless, despite the diplomatic low during Oli regime, India gifted 1 million Covishield vaccines in January, just a week after New Delhi unrolled its domestic vaccination program and extended promised grant assistance for reconstruction of educational institutions¹. India initiated rapprochement efforts which included India’s foreign secretary’s visit to Kathmandu and conferment of honorary “General of Indian Army” on Nepal Army Chief Prabhu Ram Sharma by President Ramnath Kovind. Additionally, in December 2021, India announced reconstruction of 50,000 houses devastated by the 2015 earthquake.

Keen on resolving the border row that plagued the bilateral ties, in the joint press conference, Deuba urged India to resolve the issue through existing border mechanism. In response, Modi expressed concerns over the threats due to misuse of open borders. The recent attacks on the Gorakhnath temple and reports of the accused fleeing and staying in Nepal suggested that Modi’s fears aren’t unfounded. Though border discussions didn’t figure in the joint statement both sides agreed to avoiding the politicisation of the border issue. Aside the border issue, signalling a major reset in ties, countries have unveiled a “Joint vision document for cooperation in power sector”².

This includes joint development of power projects in Nepal, cross-border power transmission infrastructure, bi-directional power trade, coordinated cooperation of national grids, institutional cooperation in sharing of latest know-how. For long, Nepal complained of India’s reluctance on transit arrangement for energy. Swiftly turning its focus to implementation of projects and a productive sub-regional cooperation, India bolstered energy cooperation between two countries.

Nepal is a power surplus country now and India is readying a blueprint for a multilateral energy partnership and cooperation among the BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal) countries. Keen on tapping the benefits of the hydropower sector- strengthening economies generating employment, export earnings and improving industrial and financial capacities countries agreed to prioritise the expeditious finalisation of detailed project report of Pancheshwar Hydropower project.

In a massive fillip to connectivity projects, countries have unveiled first broad-gauge cross border rail link of 35 km between Jayanagar in Bihar to Kurtha in Nepal, inaugurated 90 km long 132Kv Solu corridor transmission link line built with Indian Line of Credit of Rs 200, launched RuPay card in Nepal and reviewed the progress of construction of 132 health centres as part of $50 million reconstruction grant.

Nepal joined the International Solar Alliance becoming the 105^th country. Countries exchanged MoUs on enhancing technical cooperation in railway sector, supply of petroleum products and technical expertise between Indian Oil Corporation and Nepal Oil Corporation³.

India expounds Nepal as pillar of neighbourhood first policy and both countries enjoy a cordial relationship with deeply intertwined civilisational, religious and cultural connect. Expediting timely delivery of projects, building rapport with top Nepali leaders and invoking the common heritage, India is reviving the cordial relations worsened by the 2015 economic blockade. Indeed, BJP’s Vijay Chauthaiwale travelled to Nepal several times in 2021 to cultivate the top Nepali Congress leaders.

Since 2015 Beijing has been cutting its way into what is considered India’s traditional sphere of influence, Nepal strategically through BRI, striking an ideological connect with the major leftist leaning political forces and culturally through Buddhist pilgrimage trails. China’s interference in Nepal’s domestic politics drove wedge in the Community party which ultimately led to the dethroning of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Nepal is now growing weary of China and its BRI which has been a non-starter and is encountering severe backlash from people.

Deuba’s bilateral visit has another geostrategic aspect, besides the core border dispute agenda. With the ratification of MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation)-Nepal Compact, Beijing adjudged geopolitically neutral Nepal to be siding with the US. US introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation in 2004 to aid economic development of Least Developed Countries (LDC) and developing countries. The US and Nepal initially signed an agreement for a $500 million MCC-Nepal Compact in 2017. But its ratification was delayed due to lack of domestic political consensus. Nepal which is basically a leftist dominated country has been distrustful of America’s aid programs.

Tending to Nepal’s latent American scepticism, China has fanned a huge disinformation campaign against the MCC. Consequently, US diplomats made a beeline to Nepal. Amid huge protests believed to be engineered by China, the US issued a 12-point Interpretive Declaration mollifying the concerns of the protestors. Washington assured that MCC-Nepal Compact is not above the Nepal Constitution and not part of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Subsequently, the parliament ratified the MCC with a whopping two-thirds majority.

While the MCC is yet to take off, China believes that MCC could counter China’s BRI as the grant pledges to aid energy and connectivity infrastructure. Nepal joined BRI in 2017 but none of the Chinese projects made substantial progress. Besides, the burgeoning trade deficit with China, closure of the border check points and halting of international flights during Covid, non- resumption of courses for Nepali students studying in Chinese universities and Beijing growing interference in domestic politics widened the growing thaw in the Sino-Nepal relations.

MCC has further compounded tensions in Sino-Nepal relations. US presence in the Himalayan country will critically undermine the Chinese ability to dominate the landlocked country. Beijing unequivocally expressed its displeasure over the MCC since the projects under MCC could strengthen the cross border transmission of electricity between Nepal and India.

Post-ratification of MCC, Beijing influenced Nepal to accept loans under BRI. But Deuba preferred grants or soft loans or concessional loans of less than 2% interest instead of Chinese loans. To improve the bilateral ties, Wang Yi visited Kathmandu and signed nine agreements which are actually reworded unimplemented project agreements and pledged economic and technical cooperation, feasibility studies of China-Nepal border projects and power transmission.

With the MCC, Nepal has now become part of great game, where three powers would jostle for influence. Sandwiched between India and China for long Nepal played Chinese card against India and vice-versa. Given the rivalries between US and China, India and China, Nepal has to carefully balance its relations now. But in part the strategic convergence of interests between India and US should stand New Delhi in a good stead in countering Beijing’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood.

Heading the government, in an election year, Deuba aims to cater to the domestic Hindu sentiments. Striking cord with the “astha” of Nepali Hindus, Prime Minister Deuba visited Kashi Vishwanath dham in Varanasi. At the recently concluded World Hindu Conference at Kathmandu, Nepal’s Minister for Culture and Tourism said that all demands to make Nepal a Hindu Rashtra will be considered. He added, “as the present five-party coalition government enjoys close to two third majority in Parliament, the demand to declare Nepal a Hindu state can be put into referendum”⁴. Largely deemed as an attempt to woo the nationalist Hindu sentiments of the majority in the Nepal, set out to capitalise on this fresh revivalism, Deuba spend a day in Varanasi.

Among the other aspects, analysts are now scrutinising a major departure from the official protocol in Deuba’s itinerary which included a visit to BJP headquarters on the first day of his visit to meet the party President. Largely believed to be an offshoot of Indian National Congress, Nepali Congress is considered to be close to Congress and Socialist outfits in India. But this coziness with BJP party has elicited criticism from Indian commentariat.

Ongoing Sri Lankan economic crisis has indeed, alerted the region of the ramifications of gross economic mismanagement. India is often accused of its ‘Big Brother attitude’ towards its smaller neighbours. But the pandemic and India’s timely outreach has inadvertently unravelled the modus operandi of the two big powers in the region. While India can’t match the huge pockets of China, India’s development for all approach has been immensely beneficial to countries in its neighbourhood.

Echoing India’s certitude, laying foundation stone for Shainya Dham at Dehradun, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said, “some forces are trying to disturb our relationship with Nepal, a country with whom we share the relationship of roti-beti. We will never allow this. If we need to bow our heads, we will do it. But we will never break our ties with Nepal”⁵.

By shifting focus on connectivity and geo economics, India is traversing a right trajectory of multi-faceted bilateral cooperation. Accompanied by a large delegation on his three-day visit Deuba has apparently attempted to revive and recast the ties to build an enduring and robust bilateral partnership with India.  

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India’s unfazed neutral stance on Ukraine crisis amid global heat

New Delhi is witnessing unprecedented diplomatic activity. A flurry of high-level visits a consequence of seismic shifts in geopolitical and geoeconomics paradigm due to the ongoing Ukrainian crisis has two important facets to it. Firstly, this reflects the rising stature and relevance of India in the changing world order and secondly, a Western proclivity to perforce India to take a stand on Ukraine issue.

Pursuing legitimate national interests India has adopted a neutral stance in response to Russia’s brutal conventional war against Ukraine which Moscow vainfully dubbed it as “special military operation”. Advocating diplomacy and dialogue, India abstained from voting resolutions of the West and Russia in UNSC and General Assembly. Successfully evacuating over 22,000 students and nationals of over 20 countries, Indian leadership held direct conversations with Russian President thrice and Ukrainian President twice who enabled creation of humanitarian corridors for evacuation.

Unlike other countries, India unflinchingly maintained its position and even during the virtual meeting of the Quad leaders, India discussed the humanitarian implications of Ukraine developments and emphasised on “the need to return to path of dialogue and diplomacy”.

India’s rock-solid position on Ukraine issue has unsettled the American policy makers and politicians. America construes India’s call for dialogue as siding with Russia. Washington hasn’t taken kindly to India’s abstention from voting and Axios report of a sensitive but unclassified strong worded cable vindicates the same. One of the draft points in the cable referring to the Indian and UAE, states- “continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been calling so in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia’s camp, the aggressor in the conflict”¹. It instructs the US diplomats to convey this message and carry out conversations with their Indian and UAE counterparts.

While UAE voted to support Ukraine in HRC (Human Rights Council), India abstained from voting against Russia. Despite America’s displeasure with India, it realises the need for partnering with New Delhi to counter China. It is in this context, strategists widely believed that US has lobbied Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Yoshida and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to hold summit meets and persuade India to recalibrate its position. Deftly, shifting the focus to the Indo-Pacific, India bolstered economic cooperation with both countries and announced to sign an interim free trade agreement with Australia.  Even the virtual summit of Quad leaders might have been an attempt to test waters to gauge India’s position on Ukraine issue.

Though the US has recalled the cable which was sent to US embassies in 50 countries, issuing a “clarification that it didn’t intend such language for clearance but was released in error”, the cable has revealed Washington’s motives. Nonetheless, while US states that it understands India’s predicament, the West upped ante against India when New Delhi accepted Russia’s offer of discounted prices on crude oil.

Wading in, the White House stated, India’s purchase is not violation of the sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine, but Jen Psaki, spokesperson remarked, “But also think where you want to stand when text books are written at this moment of time”². America’s sermons of “right side of history” deplorably exposed its double stance which on pressure from its European allies has exempted ban on Russian oil imports.

For years, America has been using sharp economic measures in its diplomatic tool box. Indeed, to stay out of CAATSA and maintain good will of India-US ties, New Delhi stopped oil purchases from Iran in entirety. Making the best out of this opportunity, China not only availed Iran’s oil but strengthened the relationship with Tehran and sealed a $400 billion strategic agreement for 25 years. A tragic outcome for India besides foregoing the benefits of Iranian crude like 60-day credit, free insurance and shipping has even losing out the strategic Iranian space to Beijing.

Interestingly, a day after Australia expressed understanding of India’s position on Ukraine³, President Biden characterised India’s position as “somewhat shaky”⁴. But a day later, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, India is an “essential partner” for the US in the Quad⁵. Biden administration’s incoherent India policy of government playing a good cop and thinktanks and media playing a bad cop are sending conflicting messages.

Notwithstanding the partisan media drumming up criticism against India, following Biden’ remarks US undersecretary Victoria Nuland in a TV interview not keen on falling apart with India clarified, “democracies need to stand together and evolve their position vis-à-vis Russia because the choices Putin has made. Democracies must stand against autocracies like Russia and China”⁶.

In an interrelated globalised world where geoeconomics and geopolitics are intertwined, expectation of complete loyalty of allies and friends by the US would be rather churlish. Resorting to coercive measures and rude protestations would severely undermine the binding trust factor of the relations. US Deputy NSA Daleep Singh’s visit has precisely brought the countries to such an edge, especially in terms of spooking the public reaction. Singh who has been architect of America’s economic sanctions against Russia bluntly said, “if China breaches LAC again, Russia will not come running to India’s defence”⁷. This harsh warning coming from a country which claims to be friend of India has clearly rattled the common folks and diplomats alike.

India’s former envoy to UN tweeted, “So this is our friend. This is not language of diplomacy. This is the language of coercion. Somebody tell this young man that punitive unilateral economic measures are a breach of customary international law”. Ironically even some of the official American cables disparagingly, refer to India as a client state of Russia. Which it isn’t. On the contrary, India is not part of any alliance system. She is just objectively pursuing her own national interests.

India’s decisive stance in face of increased pressure from the US and European countries has unwittingly revealed their imperialistic tendencies. The post-cold war unilateralism of the US is now severely contested by countries yearning for a multipolar world. Rebuking the hypocrisy and high moral ground of the West that reeks of solipsism, India is resisting the global smackdown to blunt it independent stand and toe its line.

Similarly, “US has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at discount, without significantly increasing from previous years” and warning of “great risk”⁸ if it significantly increases oil imports from Russia has irked Indian officials. At a time when crude prices are soaring through the roof, expecting a country like India which imports 80% of the oil to unconditionally surrender to the whims of the America might be bit too rich. That too at a time when European countries flatly refused to support a ban on oil imports from Russia.

Interestingly, while sanctimonious American ministers lecture India of the right side of history, in response to Putin’s decree of oil payments in rubles to non-friendly countries, Germany and Italy are reported to have sought compromise with Putin on ruble gas payments⁹. By some accounts both countries have agreed to open accounts at Gazprom Bank. Indeed, Deputy Secretary of Russian Security Council Michel Popov confirmed that US has over past one week increased imports of Russian oil by 43% reaching 100,000 barrels per day. It further added, “Besides, Washington allowed its companies to import mineral fertiliser from Russia, listing it as essential goods”¹⁰.

In response to a Russian proposal of India assessing the use of Russia’s SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages), SWIFT styled banking system for bilateral payments, American commerce secretary Gina Raimondo once again invoked the trope of “right side of history” and urged India to “stand with United States and dozens of other countries standing up for freedom, democracy and sovereignty with Ukrainian people and aiding and funding and fuelling and aiding President Putin’s war”. Even Australian Trade Minister Don Tehan appealed India to “ensure that rules-based approach continues”¹¹.

For all the hue and cry, India has thus far obtained 13 million barrels of Russian crude, wherein the country’s daily crude consumption is 5 million barrels. India acquires its major oil supplies from the Middle East, and US is the fourth largest oil supplier making up for 8% (tipped to increase to 11% this year)¹¹ and Russia accounts for less than 1%.  For all the severe backlash against India, by one account US and allies still continue to buy $600 million crude from Russia.

From March 15^th, Indian diplomatic climate has heated up with a panoply of diplomatic visits which included- Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida, Foreign ministers of Oman Sayyid Basr Al Basundi, Austrian foreign minister Alexander Schallenberg, Greece foreign minister Nikos Dendias, Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, UK Secretary of state for foreign affairs, Elizabeth Truss, US Deputy NSA, Daleep Singh, US undersecretary Victoria Nuland, the Netherlands Prime Minister advisor Geoffrey Van Leeuwan, German foreign & security adviser to Chancellor Jens Plotner.

All these visits fell under three broad categories of -comprehensive review of bilateral ties with economic cooperation, investments as a principal area of focus, an appeal to recalibrate India’s stance towards Ukrainian issue and thirdly, an implicit warning to side in their efforts to isolate Russia.

Pertinently all these aspects invariably bespeak of India’s raising global stature as a responsible power committed to an international rules-based order. Assiduously adopting an uncompromised stand in working towards her national interests, India has embraced strategic autonomy. Galwan incident and absence of a squeak of protest from any country has strengthened New Delhi’s resolve to firmly adopt an independent foreign policy. New Delhi’s assertive approach has unnerved the West which is now realising the futility of overplaying its hand.

Making no secret of India’s disapproval of West’s arm-twisting tactics, EAM Jaishankar in response to India’s decision to buy Russian oil, hit out at what he called “campaign against India”. At the inauguration of India-UK Strategic Futures Forum along with UK Secretary Elizabeth Truss said “I was reading a report that in the month of March Europe has bought 15% more oil and gas from Russia than it did the month before. If you look at the major buyers of oil and gas from Russia, you will find most of them are from Europe”¹².

Defending India’s position he added, “when oil prices go up it is natural for countries to go out into the market and look for what are the good deals for their people. I am pretty sure if we wait two or three months, and actually look at who are the big buyers of Russian gas and oil, I suspect the list will not be different from what it used to be, and I suspect we won’t be on the top 10 on that list.”¹³

The repercussions of the interstate wars in modern times coupled with unilateral economic sanctions are extending beyond boundaries. The consequences are impacting the neutral bystanders. The inept responses to military conflicts and brinkmanship are bound to trigger hostilities and seed enmities between nations. In a multipolar world, to avoid the spill over of conflicts, the only plausible solution seems to be diplomacy and dialogue. Recovering from pandemic, the world can no longer afford a confrontational attitude. The stakeholders must realise this and initiate conversations.

 

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Modi-Kishida Deftly Deepen Partnership; Shift Focus to Indo-Pacific Theatre

The 14^thannual India-Japan summit resumed after a gap of three and half years with the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to India on March 19^th. India-Japan summit, scheduled to be held in Guwahati in 2019 could not take place due to anti-CAA protests and pandemic surge in 2020 and 2021 cast a shadow on in person meetings. Besides traveling to Glasgow for the COP 26 after assuming charge, Kishida made his first overseas visit to India as head of the government. During his previous stint as the foreign minister, Kishida last visited India in 2015.

The two-day short visit, marks 70 years of diplomatic relations between India and Japan which comes at a time of a major geopolitical ferment.  Set in the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, unlike other Quad partners, India adopted a neutral position and eloquently defended its abstention from UN voting on the same. Strategists thus alluded that one of the main aspects of Kishida’s visit would be Russian invasion and rightly so, the Japanese chief cabinet secretary also indicated the same. Ukraine crisis is an important issue where both countries failed to concur. While Japan backed the American position of extreme sanction regime against Russia, India strongly maintained that dialogue is the only way forward and dispatched three tranches of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Two summit meetings with Quad partners- Japan and Australia- back to back with President Biden’s remarks on India’s “shaky” response to Russian invasion demonstrates that the West strongly wants India to approve their punitive sanctions against Kremlin. Doing a tight diplomatic balancing, India not only repulsed all these attempts but has successfully managed to convince Japan and Australia of its position.

The Joint Statement at the annual summit reads, “the prime ministers have expressed their serious concerns over the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications, particularly to Indo-Pacific region. They emphasised that the contemporary global order is based on UN charter, international law and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states…. They reiterated their call for an immediate cessation of violence and noted that there was no other choice but the path of dialogue and diplomacy for resolution of the conflict”.

Ironically, while the US is keen on eliciting India’s response to European security framework through its ally Japan, Prime Minister Modi has rightly shifted the focus of the summit to robust economic cooperation. Enunciating that both countries must work towards averting a Ukraine kind of situation in the Indo-Pacific, leaders discussed common threat in the region.

Addressing the shared concerns, both countries underscored the need for “stable and prosperous world, based on a rules-based order …. Emphasised the need for all countries to seek peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law without resorting to threat or use of force or attempt to unilaterally change status quo”.

Reflecting on the burgeoning Chinese bellicosity in the region, they emphasised- “importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint”. This statement further reinforces the observation of the US Indo-Pacific commander, Admiral John C Aquilino who expressed concerns over China’s muscle flexing. He observed, “China has fully militarised at least three of several islands its built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby”.

At a time when Biden’s Russian obsession has veered the world away from China’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, reaffirming commitment to free and open Indo-Pacific, India has rightly highlighted the security threats in the region and called for “the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and the early conclusion of a substantive and effective Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, especially UNCLOS”.

PM Kishida welcomed PM Modi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI) and proposed greater cooperation between IPOI and Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). To effectively uphold the vision of FOIP such as openness, rule of law, freedom, transparency and inclusiveness, both leaders reiterated their strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality and endorsed “ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)”.

Pandemic, besides inflicting a huge blow to economies, brought to fore the strategic weaponization of trade and crippling of global supply chain. To insulate economies and liberate them from coercion, as part of FOIP, India and Japan have resolved to power their economies with robust bilateral flow of trade and investments. India received first yen loan aid in 1958 and has been one of the major beneficiaries of Japan’s ODA (Official Development Assistance). Japan is fifth largest source of FDI.

In 2000 Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori established “Global Partnership between India and Japan”. In 2005, both countries have started annual summit meets and in 2006, Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Junichiro Kozumi elevated the relationship to “Global and Strategic Partnership”.  

In 2014, on the eve of Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to Japan for a summit meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they upgraded these ties to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. Subsequently, Abe announced 3.5 trillion Yen investment in India over a period of five years.

Taking note of the steps taken by government of India to improve ease of doing business and business environment, Kishida announced an investment of 5 trillion Yen of public and private investment in India over a period of five years. To promote industrial cooperation in MSME and manufacturing, India and Japan have established India-Japan Industrial Competitive Partnership (IJICP) in November 2021.

To reduce dependence on China and build resilient and reliable supply chain, India, Japan and Australia initiated Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) in April 2021.  Economic cooperation is a force multiplier and to infuse new momentum in bilateral ties, India and Japan are planning to review CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) for implementation. Making amendments in article 7 &13 of the CEPA, countries are contemplating the inclusion of surimi fish of India in the IJIICP roadmap. While robust investments have been the high point of India-Japan partnership, the bilateral trade of $16.95 is below the potential. In a welcome move, India approved the imports of Apples from Japan and Japan relaxed procedures to export Indian mangoes.

Besides shared interests, India and Japan have a common adversary, strengthening defence cooperation, countries welcomed operationalisation of the Agreement Concerning Reciprocal Provision of Supplies and Services between Indian Armed Forces and Japan’s self defense forces through bilateral and multilateral exercises like “Dharma Guardian” and “Malabar” respectively. But Japan still hobbled by a pacifist constitution isn’t forthcoming on defence cooperation as yet and both countries are still identifying potential areas of cooperation and collaboration in defense manufacturing and technology sectors.

True to quintessential global partnership, both countries more or less share common perspectives on countering terrorism. The Joint Statement condemned the state-sponsor terrorism of Pakistan in strongest terms and unequivocally harboured similar positions with regards to denuclearisation of Korean peninsula, realising peace and stability in Afghanistan, implementation of five-point consensus by Myanmar.

India and Japan part of the G 4, seeking permanent membership in an expanded UNSC sought for early reforms of the UNSC to reflect the contemporary realities of the 21^st century and significantly affirmed to “accelerate its process, including through the commencement of text-based negotiations in the Inter-Governmental Negotiations (IGN) with an overall objective to achieve concrete outcomes in a fixed time frame”.

Synergizing with India’s Act East Policy (AEF) and Japan’s vision for FOIP, countries have established Act East Forum in 2017 for promoting and developing India’s North East Region (NER) by way of improving connectivity within the region and between the region and the South East Asia. For sustainable development of the NER, the focus of AEF has been on improving agriculture through better irrigation, developing agro-based industries, food processing, improving health facilities, skill development and employment under Skill India, disaster resilience, development of tourism and cultural exchange, connectivity, new renewable energy, sustainable use of forest resources and cooperation in development of Urban areas.

As part of this grand initiative, both the leaders have launched “India-Japan Initiative for Sustainable Development of the North Eastern Region of India” which includes the “initiative for strengthening Bamboo Value Chain in the North East”. Bamboo is an inalienable part of the culture heritage of both countries and by marrying traditional skills with innovative design and branding, countries aim to promote the livelihoods of people in NER through Bamboo Value chain initiative.

Besides the progress made on four pillars of cooperation of the Quad-connectivity, Covid vaccines, emerging technologies and climate, India and Japan have renewed partnership towards sustainable development in the post Covid world. Countries have launched India-Japan Clean Energy Partnership in areas such as electric vehicles (EV), storage systems including batteries, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, solar energy, clean including green hydrogen/ ammonia, wind energy, exchange of view on energy transition plans, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide Capturing, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) and Carbon recycling.

To deliver on ambitious climate change and sustainable development goals, Japan and India have committed to the net carbon zero by 2070 and 2050 respectively. Accordingly, leaders are seeking to cement the cooperation on new and renewable energy. Emulating Japan’s Asia’s Energy Transition Initiative (AETI), countries are keen on tapping into low-carbon sunrise sectors, new technologies to reduce carbon emissions with an underlying vision of being secure, efficient, resilient and sustainable. Cooperation under this partnership will build on the work already carried under foundation of India-Japan Energy Dialogue in 2007.

Countries have signed Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) in the field of Cyber security and MoU on seven JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) loans for connectivity, water supply and sewerage, health care and conservation projects in North East, decentralised domestic waste water management, sustainable urban development.

Pursuing national interest has been foundational pillar of Modi’s doctrine. Refusing to be drawn into the quagmires of the geopolitical ferment, wary of allying with any group, India is strategically seeking issue-based coalitions. Of late, India is intently solemnising bilateral trade, energy and investment agreements over multilateral pacts. Resisting coercion, threats and intimidation, India has by far firmly adopted a neutral stance on the Ukraine issue.

Though Kishida’s quick visit to India has been an inadvertent persuasive effort to convince India to support sanctions against Russia, through deft diplomacy, India deepened multisectoral cooperation with Japan. Imploring on the need to focus on the Indo-Pacific region, which is of immediate consequence to both countries, India reinfused trust and fresh energy into the partnership pivoted on shared interests and common threats.

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The Kashmir Files Makes a Compelling Case for Revisiting our History and Revising Textbooks

The Kashmir Files, which started its journey as “Right to Justice” and first screened in the United States made waves and left an indelible impression on the audience. Slated for an official release initially on the Republic Day, people in India too eagerly awaited the movie that has shone light on the plight of the Kashmiri Hindus. Clearing the legal tangles, the movie hit the screens in India on March 11^th.

For decades, the ecosystem nonchalantly glossed over the gruesome ethnocide of Kashmiri Hindus as “exodus”. The targeted attacks on Hindus in the Valley for the past 700 years culminated in a pogrom on Jan 19^th, 1990 which forced over five lakh Kashmiri Hindus to leave the valley. Overnight, the land of Sage Kashyapa was stripped bare of the legit inheritors and upholders of Indic civilisation. But a vast majority of the Indians remained blissfully unaware of this tragic demographic displacement which could extirpate the last surviving remnants of Indic civilisation in the valley, which has been knowledge fount of the Indian subcontinent. Unfortunately, barring muted discussions among the intellectual circles and well-read, common man was largely oblivious to the purge of Kashmiri Hindus and the mission-mode attacks on them.

Through an unvarnished presentation of the facts based on the true stories, the Kashmir Files, has taken the Indian audience by a storm. Majority of them who are ignorant of the ordeal of the Kashmiri Hindus are left teary eyed and shocked to learn about their sordid saga. The movie which laid threadbare all the events that led to the ethnic cleansing of the Kashmiri Hindus shook the collective conscious of the Indians. Startled by the disconnect between the popular narrative and the ground reality people are genuinely outraged by the apathy of the system, failure of the successive governments.

People are perplexed by conspiracy of silence. The feeling of having failed the micro minority community of Kashmiri pandits has compounded the anguish of the common man. The movie has come as a jolt to the slumbering Hindus who naively consumed the whitewashed history systematically fed through the text books. The complete absence of even a mention of this carnage has created a definite churn and ignited a distrust towards the dominant narrative. This aversion can potentially give a major fillip to the popular demand of revising the text books and Indian academic works that have buried the real Indian history.

Since 8^th century BCE Hindus have been at the receiving end of the foreign invaders who besides ravaging and plundering the country have attempted to decimate their sense of identity. History written by victors for over the centuries never empathised with the kind of bloodshed and butchery endured by the Hindus in the civilisational war. Their resistance and steely courage have always remained an obscure historical footnote.

In 1947, though India attained political independence, Hindus were constitutionally discriminated. Post-independence the ecosystem that dominated the discourse always portrayed Hindus as a majoritarian aggressor and flagrantly whitewashed the crimes against them. In cahoots with the political dispensation which undermined the Hindu interests to appease their vote bank, the ecosystem besides distorting the history peddled a narrative of minority victimhood.

The lackadaisical approach of government towards Hindus has triggered a sudden rise in anti-India and anti-Hindu designs in the valley. The Kashmiri Hindus who have been victims of religious fanaticism since 11^th century and left the valley in six major waves were forced to leave for the seventh time at gun point in an independent country, is a matter of a national shame. This abject failure of the country to provide security is inexcusable.

For years, the ecosystem, which sided with the fanatics who were hailed as “Gandhi with Guns” has successfully misled the common man with their fabricated narratives. Reflecting truth and reality, the Kashmir Files (TKF) movie has exposed the genocide which was expertly touted as “exodus” by the ecosystem.  Affecting the coverup of the grotesque crimes against the Hindus by the jihadi tyranny hailed as “azadi”, the movie has permanently blown away the lid of the nefarious anti-India and anti-Hindu agenda at work.

Mainstreaming the Hindu atrocities, the movie besides puncturing the narrative of the ecosystem has rightly exposed the bigotry of the judicial system, that refused to offer legal recourse to the affected community. TKF has drawn attention to exiled Kashmiri Hindus who continue to live as internal refugees in their own country.

With a non-linear narration and a string of parallelly running brainstorming session by a professor who exuberantly blurts out- “the government is theirs but the system is ours” the film rightly encapsulated the motives of the cabal that diabolically refutes the genocide.  Expertly underscoring the war of narratives at play, the movie offers a complete perspective of the interplay of various factors at work in burying the Holocaust. Devoid of loaded dialogues but peppered with anecdotal wise words like- “impossible takes little longer time” and “hope is what they want to kill”, the director has smartly underscored the uncanny resilience of the Kashmiri Hindus.

Without suggesting any way forward, the director left it to the discretion of the audience to mull over a valid recourse. Effectively using the visual media to etch the genocide in the psyche, the film has sparked a new awakening. This new illumine among the youngsters springs a fresh hope of people collectively demanding the government for a legal recourse to the Kashmiri Hindus who continue to live in exile.

Intriguingly for all the fascist diatribes against the current dispensation of curbing the freedom of expression, the coverup of genocide saw the light of the day under this regime. Abrogating article 370, the government has shown its commitment of integrating J&K with the country. J&K is incomplete without Kashmiri Hindus who are integral to restoring the civilisational identity of the valley. Rehabilitation of the Kashmiri Hindus back in the valley is indispensable to reposition Kashmir as the fount of Indian civilisation.

It is time the government of day display a courage of conviction and institute a truth and reconciliation committee to probe and document the ethnic cleansing and ensure swift justice to prevent future recurrence.

Unlike the famed son of the school master who took to arms for alleged high-handedness of the Indian Army, despite the homicide, invoking Devi Sharada Kashmiri Hindus, believed in the power of pen and never turned hostile towards the state and slowly built their lives. The unmissable striking contrast shown in the movie reflective of the values of the land has spurred the conscious of Indians who are now yearning for an honourable redressal for Kashmiri Hindus.

The Kashmir Files has opened a new chapter in India’s battle of narratives which is thus far dominated by a privileged section of the society. By bringing to fore the trials, tribulations and despicable bigotry, the movie has illumined a spark and generated a wider consciousness towards the ongoing civilisation war.

Successive Indian governments and the ecosystem with vested interests never bothered to promote Indic civilisation and shattered hopes of institutionalised revival. Featuring the indifference and apathy of the system, TKF generated an awareness that can effectively spark a new renaissance triggering a bottom up approach of people propelling a change.

The Kashmir Files has stirred a pot rekindling the hope of birthing a new generation of thought leaders. Overcoming several hurdles, push and pull of the woke ecosystem, director Vivek Agnihotri has displayed tremendous courage in exposing the gruesome facet of atrocities suffered by the indigenous people of the land.

While the government of India is yet to order an investigation on massacre of Kashmiri Hindus for the first ever gripping visual presentation of collective grief has moved the World. For the first time in 32 years, US state of Rhode Island has acknowledged the Kashmir genocide. Certainly, the movie created a ripple, shook the society and heralded a narrative.

Here is a heartfelt thanks to the entire unit and cast of the TKF for their invaluable contribution to the Hindu society and the country at large.

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