Istanbul Attacks: A Fall out of Turkey's Failed Policies

After Iraq, Libya and Syria now Turkey seems to slipping into chaos and disorder. Three suicide bombers launched attacks near Istanbul’s Ataturk airport, third- busiest in the World killing 41 people and injuring over 230 people on June 28^th. Bomb attacks carried by IS and PKK, Kurdish Militant groups in Turkey over the past one year have claimed lives of 200 civilians. Till now Turkey’s participation in the regional chaotic war was augured by aspiration of unseating Assad’s regime in Syria. This latest brazen attack in Istanbul, a hub of tourism and business transactions has hit its reputation as a safe place. An embroiled Turkey might go all guns blazing at IS now. At this juncture, it would be pertinent to understand why Turkey has been sinking into a quandary of exigencies.

Currently Turkey is sequestered by deadly Syrian civil war, inflow of refugees, attacks of invincible terror network and an authoritarian government plunging it into an unfathomable abyss. The incipient muck is an outcome of flawed policies wherein Turkey has become a base camp of arms and weapons to the terrorists to be funneled into Syria. Some experts drew a simile with Pakistan and haven’t shied away from coining the word Pakistanisation of Turkey. Just as Afghan Talibans found safe havens in Pakistan, the terror networks operating the region are having safe havens in Turkey. The series of recent bombings across Turkey killing innocent civilians is sending distress signals characteristic of a failed state.

Turkey, a trusted NATO ally which shares huge border with Syria, the global hub of terrorism is supposed to be afflicted by the scourge of “ethno-nationalist zealotry”. From 1970’s Kurds have been fighting for autonomy and aspired to create independent Kurdistan. The nationalist movement was headed by Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) initially waging guerilla wars from behind high terrains of mountains on Turkish Security Forces. It slowly gained momentum and launched first major attack in 1984. PKK soon emerged as an imminent threat to Turkey in response to its decades of authoritarian regime that imposed curbs on the language and culture of Kurds. Kurds majorly were staunchest opponents of the extremist terror group IS. While PKK is not representative of Kurds it has immense support in Turkey compared to IS. In the fall of 2014 relations between PKK and Turkish government turned sour as the later preferred to remain a defiant spectator when IS laid siege on Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani. In fact Ergodon was complacent when Kobani was occupied. The apathy of Ergodon aggravated three decades long armed conflict between the Turkish government and Kurdish forces that began in 1984 and claimed 40,000 people so far. Kurds in Syria and Iraq joined hands with the coalition of US fighting the IS. At the same time, US was contemplating on air strikes against IS and looking for allies in the region, Turkey miffed by US (for destabilizing the region by waging frivolous Iraq war) refrained from joining the coalition forces. US then forged an alliance with the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and Syrian Kurdish fighters, YPG. The Syrian branch (PYD), a more potent force operating in the region is an ally to both US and Russia. After allying with the US forces the Syrian Kurds made enviable advances into the territories of the IS turning Turkey’s worst nightmare into a reality. Turkey considered Kurds as a big threat was wary of their rapid advances. Much to the chagrin of Turkey, enduring retaliatory action of ISIS, Syrian Kurds eventually laid foundation for carving out an autonomous territory from Syria called Kurdistan or Rojava.

On July 15^th 2015, the ceasefire agreement between the parties fell apart when PKK killed two Turkish police officers for failing to prevent a suicide bomb attack carried by IS in the Turkish border town of Suruc that killed 33 Kurds. Kurds were indeed helping Syrians in building the neighborhood town of Kobani captured by Kurds backed by American airstrikes. IS operatives rapidly gained ground in Turkey and carried out two suicide bomb attacks on a peace rally in October 2015 killing over 100 civilians. This pandemonium generated massive outrage among civil society forcing government to launch relentless attacks against the IS sleeper cells and on the Kurdish sanctuaries in Southeast Turkey. In retaliation the President Recep Tayyip Ergodon ordered aerial bombings on Kurds in Northern parts of Iraq and on their hideouts within Turkey. The situation in Turkey has become grim ever since the breakdown of peace process.

By virtue of his implacable enmity with Bashar Al-Assad, Ergodon agreed to permit US led-coalition bandwagon to use air Turkish air base, Incirlik for targeted attacks on IS in 2015. Turkey, a long term ally of Syria parted its ways when Assad refused act against Arab Spring uprising and favored Iran’s advice. Turkey incidentally joined hands with US as both of them aspired to obliterate Bashar’s regime and decimate IS. Domestic exigencies forced Turkey to act strongly against IS across the Syrian border and on the Syrian Kurdish PYD forces allied with US. But Turkey’s ties with US hit a rock bottom with Turkey alleging that bomb attack in February was engineered by a close out fit of PYD, an ally of US. PYD denied its role and lashed out at Turkey for intensifying attacks targeting the Syrian kurds. Turkey appealing to the West to stop providing military aid to PYD forces and accused them of favoring the enemies of Turkey.

Interestingly, in a sudden change of preference US wanted to distance itself from the brewing unrest in Turkey and decided to ally with Kurds who are perceived to be secular, pro-west and democratic. With Kurds establishing control over the north eastern Syrian cities-Jazira, Kobani and Afrin and Russia announcing withdrawal of troops, partition of Syria, widely opposed by Turkey and formation of Rojava seems imminent. Kurds are all set to declare Rojava as autonomous federal region. Kurds who are thus far scattered in four different countries –Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey are a step closer to their long term goal of independent homeland.

In November, Turkey unduly messed up the situation singularly by shooting down a Russian place for alleged air space violation. Though the situation didn’t escalate into a global disaster prompting countries to join the sides, Russia imposed tough sanctions on Turkey inflicting a death blow on its economy costing over $10 billion. Indeed, Turkey had picked up quarrels with all its neighbors- Iraq for conniving with Kurdish separatists, parted ways with Egypt and at daggers with Syria. In attempt to mitigate these diplomatic losses that have driven Turkey into isolationism, Turkey had deepened ties with Saudi Arabia.

Besides the internal political turmoil and external squabbles with various militant outfits, Turkey is severely crippled by refugee crisis. While Europe received overwhelming attention for the excruciating refugee exodus flooding its gates, Turkey truly bore the brunt of Syrian monstrous war. Of the 4.7 million people who fled Syria, Turkey provided shelter to 2.6 million Syrian refugees.  So far, Turkey has shelled out $8.5 billion to accommodate refugees infiltrating through the 565-mile long porous border. To contain refugee spill over, EU offered $3 billion and Turkey in return demanded visa-free travel to Turks in Schengen area to Turkey and agreed to permit free entry of Turkish citizens within the Schengen region. Turkey unconditionally embraced EU’s offer but its inability to assess the travesty of unplugged borders plunged the economy into an abyss. With Ergodon refusing to amend anti-terrorism laws, raising concerns over human rights issue EU watered down Turkey’s aspirations of becoming a member.

Turkey is victim of its own misdeeds and miscalculations. Turkey misconstrued IS as a perfect counterbalance to the rejuvenation of Kurdish insurgency in Northern Syria and Ergodon’s bitter animosity towards Assad drew him closer to IS. Though President Ergodan vehemently denied the allegations of Opposition parties and Russia claiming that his government had close links with IS, reports suggest that Turkey was initially soft towards IS. Ankara strongly believed that no extremist power can even threaten the Unitarian structure of its country. But spiraling law and order crisis forced Ergodan to embrace conservative policies denigrating democratic credentials of the regime. With every attack, the regime turned more despotic, authoritarian and imposed tough sanctions on the media. These actions made opposition and public more suspicious and society more polarized. Disproportionate numbers of Turks began to join the IS. Indeed the gulf between IS and Turkey began to widen when the later allowed US to use its Southern base for airstrikes. IS even termed Turkey as an apostate regime and vowed to avenge Istanbul. Turkey which was a citadel of secular Muslim values is now slowly losing its sheen. Ergodon’s recent unsavory remarks of childless women and cancellation of Pride March following bomb threats reflect a similar levitation.

With economic crisis looming large over the country, this week Turkey announced normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel and reached out to Putin expressing sorrow over killing of two pilots. Turkey severed ties with Israel in 2010 when the later raided former’s Mavi Marara flotilla carrying supplies to Gaza strip under blockade resulting in killing of nine Turks. Turkey was Israel’s only friend in the region. This latest politically diplomatic move has an incipient economic emolument aimed at facilitating the supply of natural gas from Israel to Turkey reducing its reliance on Russia’s Gazprom. Tuesday night’s bomb attacks led to genesis of different theories floated by various actors that have high stakes with Turkey. According to US, Ergodon’s preference to crush the Kurdish forces rather than IS and his complicity has deteriorated the situation in Turkey. Still others opine that normalization of relations with Russia and Israel both anti-IS forces and augmenting border patrols with NATO forces prompted the attack. Turkey has recently intensified attacks on IS and arrested 36 suspected IS operatives and perhaps IS avenged Turkey with this attack. Above all experts now strongly believe that Ergodon should immediately resume peace talks with PKK before the situation becomes dangerously out of bounds.

 

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi Speaks to Arnab Goswami

In his first ever interview to a private Indian news channel after assuming power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Frankly Speaking with Arnab has covered lot of ground. For long Modi was criticized for failing to have an eloquent media spokesperson to communicate. But this wide-ranging interview aptly filled in that lacuna. Endowed with a clarity of thought, driven by a strong conviction and adept in articulation Modi succinctly addressed all the issues raised during the course of this candid interview.

Foreign Policy has been Modi’s forte and conversation began with a critical reference to India’s failure to obtain the much hyped NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) membership. Despite certain sections of media gleefully undermining the proactive diplomacy and personal lobbying of Prime Minister, it is amply clear that Indian pursuits were blocked by one country- China. As a Prime Minister Modi met President Xi on 13 different occasions and prevailed that continuous dialogue with China is important despite disagreement over wide range of issues to find “common meeting points”. He reckoned that he never lost an opportunity to unequivocally communicate India’s interests and reiterated that contemporary world is no longer bipolar. Despite the repeated hurdles posed by China in India’s way it is essential for India to engage with the dragon. Modi argued that in foreign policy countries necessarily don’t harbor similar views to enter a conversation but continue to engage to resolve an issue through dialogue. In this era of globalization, governments must engage with big and small countries alike, clearly indicating that no country is insignificant. Accordingly, India renewed its engagement with several island countries as a result nearly 50 such countries are now part of the 122-member strong International Solar Alliance (ISA) initiated by India. Modi was optimistic of India’s NSG membership and stressed that it is an ongoing effort. He endorsed that every government till now has worked towards India’s permanent membership at UNSC, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Shanghai Cooperation (SCO) membership. He was glad that SCO and MTCR membership fructified under his regime.

With reference to the tangle between US and Pakistan and India’s growing closeness to US, Modi urged Indian Media “to stop seeing India through Pakistan’s prism”. He asserted that in this interconnected and interdependent World, it is essential for governments to engage with friends and foes alike. He insisted that he always aspired to have friendly relations with Pakistan and hoped that both countries could work together towards upliftment of masses from poverty in both countries. India wants to live in harmony. This can be reflected in the series of the friendly gestures made by Modi ranging from invitation to SAARC nations for his swearing-in ceremony, meeting along the sidelines of Ufa, a pep talk along the margins of Paris Climate Summit and finally impromptu visit to Lahore to wish Nawaz Sharif on his birthday. But despite these efforts Pakistan has reciprocated India with a clandestine Pathankot attack. These continuous efforts from Indian side clearly reflects India’s propensity for a harmonious coexistence with its neighbor. Incidentally World is now unanimously supporting India and have come to understand existential threat from Pakistan. Countries have begun to empathize India for enduring the brutal terror attacks perpetuated by Pakistan.  With reference to how do we decide the Lakshman Rekha for Pakistan? Modi expressed his dilemma as to whom should we engage? The elected government or other non-state actors? Hence India needs to be on a perpetual alert every day and can hardly afford any laxity. He mentioned about the two pronged style- where people who has to work at table are working and those working at borders are responsibly fulfilling their duties. He commended the relentless terrorist flushing out operations of jawans.

Finally he observed that it is important for him to engage with World leaders and talk to them frankly as he was largely an unknown identity (with no political clout). He stressed that his “personality shouldn’t be hindrance for the World to have faith in India”. Taking an indirect dig at media which has clearly contorted his personal image, he emphasized that he must meet World leaders in person so that his counterparts would know about India’s real head and his aspirations. Foreign Affairs in India made a massive changeover. Earlier different ministries used to work as separate entities but under Modi all of them began to work as a team and hence the impact is more visible.

Responding to some tough questions on economy, Modi made it amply clear that government was happy with Raghuram Rajan’s contributions indicating that the queer pitch of Rexit was a media creation. He expressed high regards for his credentials and believed that he would be ever enthusiastic to serve India. With reference to Jandhan Yojana, Prime Minister Phasal Bheema Yojana he said that BJP believes in the concept of the Antyodaya ( reaching out to the last man) envisaged by Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyay. He reinforced that his government aims to bring about change in the quality of life and believes in empowering the poor to fight poverty. Underlining the importance of Swacch Bharat, he said that filth and unhygienic living has been bane on India’s poor. With the Clean India Drive, NDA regime aims to extricate the poor from the vicious cycle of diseases and ill health. To mitigate the burden of growing unemployment among Indian youth, government has initiated Start Up India, Stand Up India and introduced through Mudra Banks scheme which can disburse loans to women, dalits and youth. So far 3 crore people availed loans from these banks to start their own businesses. To generate more employment, Modi indicated that government is now heavily investing in infrastructure projects.

With reference to possible communalization of political agenda for the forthcoming UP assembly elections, Modi requested media to stop making political hotheads into heroes. Similarly in a veiled dig at Subramanian Swamy he indicated people in public life must behave responsibly, refrain from seeking unnecessary publicity and shouldn’t challenge the system. With no holds barred Modi openly came out that he had no doubts that sins were committed by previous government and indicated that all scams will be critically and methodically analyzed. In reply to government’s efforts on curbing the routing of black money, Modi highlighted that his government has made taxation more transparent, blocked the Mauritius route through which black money is transferred. With concerted efforts Modi explained that he convinced member countries to include cooperation on information sharing on black money in the G-20 summit charter. During his recent visit to Switzerland, Modi sought Automatic Information Transfer on black money from Switzerland. He minced no words in saying that Congress has hijacked the Parliament and has been largely responsible for stalling of GST bill and prolonged log-jam. In a scathing reference to Augusta Westland and other defence Scams, he believed that highly experienced hands have doctored several deals and that his government would leave no stone unturned to unearth the hidden hands indulged in massive corruption. He indicated that such efforts shouldn’t be viewed as witch hunt. He also warned the tax evaders to enter the taxation stream with immediate effect to avoid any trouble. With regards to price rise Modi explained that two years of severe drought have crippled the agriculture production leading to skyrocketing of prices of pulses and other vegetables. He assured that government is importing huge amounts of pulses to mitigate the short supply.

To sum up, Modi had congruently addressed several queries on crucial aspects of governance with a professional elan. Till now political commentators criticized Modi for evading media and failing to communicate with people. This interview was indeed an opportunity, wherein Modi was critically interrogated by an aggressive and unappeasable anchor Arnab Goswami. Breaking his silence, Modi interpreted his vision for India. The clarity of thought, visionary outlook and firm commitment exuded by Prime Minister was indeed inspirational.  Unfortunately, seized by an overwhelming condemnation towards Modi, all his actions are scrutinized and unduly viewed through a prism of skepticism. As a result, people who appreciate the new sense of enthusiasm and pragmatism infused by Modi are labelled as bhakts and their views are wrecked. In any case, there is no dearth of an alternative interpretation. But truly, Modi has changed the dynamics of India through his proactive, boots on ground approach. World’s perception of India has changed. He contained the fiscal deficit, ensured a growth rate of 7.5% at a time when global markets are reeling under recession and steered the economic development by providing a scam-free government. Hope his desperate attempts to bring a change in every aspect of governance might yield tangible results soon. 

 

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Bolstering Ties with Afghanistan

Prime Minister Modi flagged off tightly-packed five nation visit on June 4^th 2015. Referred to as a “Consolidation visit” by strategists, the grueling itinerary that spanned three continents reaching five countries- Afghanistan, Qatar, Switzerland, US and Mexico began on an positive note. Modi made a scintillating beginning by inaugurating The Indo-Afghan friendship bridge (the Salma Dam) in Herat province in the first leg of trip. Fresh from the triumphant sealing of the historic Trilateral Transport and Agreement on Chabahar Port, successful completion of Indian venture in Afghanistan has added new impetus to the Indo-Afghan relations. The 42 MW hydroelectric dam can irrigate 75,000 hectares of land (stabilize irrigation to the existing 35,000 ha and provide water supply to additional 40,000 ha). Parched lands of 640 villages devastated by 15 year long drought can now be irrigated from the waters of the dam constructed across Harirud River. Besides electrifying 2.5 lakh homes Salma Dam is expected to propel industrial developmental projects and draw investments from neighboring Iran and Turkmenistan. Till now Afghanistan used to buy 22 MW and 100 MW power from Turkmenistan and Iran respectively. The dam in all is set to boost Afghanistan’s installed power capacity by 10% is thus believed to transform the region. But for the real benefits to roll in, Afghanistan has to expedite construction of electric power stations and irrigational channels.

Salma Dam was built by India at a cost of 1770 Crores ($290 million) by WAPCOS (Water and Power Consultancy Services), a construction company owned by the Ministry of Water Resources, India.  Indeed WAPCOS was created upon Afghanistan’s request who sought Indian help in construction of hydroelectric projects way back in 1968. The dam located in the Chisti Sharif district, 165 km from Herat city could be reached by an earthen road making the transportation of construction material an onerous task. India shipped all the material to the Afghanistan through the Bandar Abbas port in Iran and after travelling for 1200km would pass through the Islam Kila, Iran-Afghanistan Border post. Within Afghanistan the material had to be moved for further 300km to reach the site. Aside these difficulties, the project had to overcome two insurmountable challenges- getting approval of Iran to ship detonation material through its ports and security threats from Afghan Taliban. India Projects in Afghanistan have been viciously targeted by Afghan insurgency groups. The friendship dam is an outcome of sacrifices endured by 1500 engineers from India and Afghanistan. Despite the constant threats of attacks and uninterrupted exchange of gun firing running in a distant background, the committed engineers and workers accomplished a near impossible task.  Feasibility reports for construction of a dam were believed to be prepared in 1958. Salma dam construction began in 1976. Following the Russian occupation in 1978, Herat became center for massive rebellion and the project was aborted. In 1988 reconstruction of the dam was initiated by WAPCOS but it had to be shelved due to domestic insurgencies. After the fall of Taliban regime when peace was restored, Atal Bihari Vajpayee aspired to rebuild the dam. A delegation of WAPCOS revisited the site in 2002. Cabinet approval was obtained in 2004, contracts were awarded and India sanctioned 352 crores. By January 2006, construction was initiated but the mountainous terrain, threat from the militant groups and incoherent finances stifled the progress of the construction. In 2013, Afghan National Directorate of Security claimed that Quetta Shura attempted to blow away the dam with explosives. The deadlines were endlessly stretched. Several deadlines were missed these include- December 2008, December 2010, January 2015, July 2015 and finally the project was ready by June 2016. As a result, the final outlay of project is over 400% of original estimate. Besides, Salma Dam the major projects initiated by Indiaand dedicated to Afghanistan include Zaranj-Delram Road, Pul-i-Khumri transmission line and the Parliament Building. As a token of immense respect, Modi was honored with Amir Amanullah Khan Award, Afghanistan’s highest civilian award during his visit. Dedicating the dam to Afghanistan, Modi assured Afghanistan of all support and promised to work towards building a stable nation.

India and Afghanistan has close civilizational and geographical ties. The village Chisti, located at the foot of Salma dam was home town of iconic Sufi preacher, Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti. The Saint, expounder of Sufism who migrated to India carrying the message of love, brotherhood and friendship is highly revered in India. Dargahs in Ajmer, Delhi and Fatehpur Sikri constructed in his honor are frequented by thousands of followers even today. Colossal statues of Buddha and idols of other Hindu Gods recovered from Afghanistan reminds of close civilizational connect between the countries. In 1915, India nationalists established provisional government-in-exile in Kabul to obtain support from Afghan Emirate, Tsar of Russia, China and Japan for Indian Freedom Movement in Kabul. Ranging from the friendship between Mahatma Gandhi and Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan to providing a safe exit to Subhas Chandra Bose to Russia through its territory, Afghanistan is closely linked to India. Even the political relations between two countries have been very cordial. But India severed relations with Afghanistan during the Taliban regime when the Bamiyan Buddha Statues were destroyed and supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. India restored diplomatic ties after Taliban regime was overthrown and participated actively in reconstruction activity. India provided humanitarian and economic aid and prevailed as the largest regional aid provider. India strongly pushed for the membership of Afghanistan into SAARC in 2005. Both countries strengthened its bilateral ties by extending cooperation in various sectors by signing the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). Under SPA India began to provide assistance in rebuilding infrastructure and institutions, capacity building, technical assistance and providing training to the troops. India has so far invested $2billion in Afghanistan making it largest benefactor of India. But the relations took a new turn in 2015.

Unlike his predecessor Hamid Karzai who had a favorable approach towards India, the new president Ashraf Ghani who assumed power in September 2014, levitated towards Pakistan. With US and allied partners announcing withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani conscious of Pakistan’s despotic leverage in controlling Afghan Taliban entered into a strategic partnership with Islamabad. Despite Afghanistan’s overtures and appeasement of Pakistan India harbored a conciliatory approach towards Afghanistan. By 2015, Afghanistan witnessed a resurgence of Afghan Taliban who wrested Kunduz and Herat for a brief period and country was in state of turmoil. According to a conservative estimate nearly one-fifth of the country is now controlled by Afghan Taliban. Pro-Pakistani officials began to infiltrate into administrative structure leading to a sense of disarray. Alarmed by the deteriorating economy, law and security situation, US called for meetings of the leaders of Afghan Peace and Reconciliation Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) comprising of Afghanistan, Pakistan and China. QCG conveniently sidelined India, the crucial developmental partner of Afghanistan. Pakistan having played a pivotal role in positioning of US in Afghanistan and China’s whose financial interests are linked to Afghanistan’s stability were endorsed to play key role in peace talks between Afghan government and Taliban. In reality, China’s financial assistance and its role in Afghan’s security is negligible. US included China to pressurize Pakistan from extending support to the Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban acting at its behest. Further strong Sino-Pakistan relations are believed to result in a durable reconciliation. With Pakistan given a free hand, there has been a spurt in Taliban’s rampage. With Afghan Taliban largely working under the aegis of Pakistan, its salience in the restoration of peace and reconciliation has become vital. Right from keeping the death of Mullah Omar’s secret for two years and providing safe shelters to Afghan Taliban leaders, Pakistan had all literally all levers to control.  

After failure of Pakistan’s outreach, Ghani visited India to revive and strengthen ties with New Delhi. Demonstrating India’s commitment to stand by its traditional partner, Modi visited Afghanistan in December 2015, donated four Mi-25 attack helicopters, inaugurated the $90 million Parliament Building and employed soft power approach. India organized the Heart of Asia (HoA) conference which was participated by 14 countries in April 2016 to speed up revival of war-torn Afghanistan.  At HoA, irked by burgeoning terror attacks, Ashraf Ghani asked Pakistan to stall its attempts of bringing Taliban for peace negotiation and sought military action against them. He threatened to refer the issue to UNSC if Pakistan’s fails to control and launch serious diplomatic efforts if it fails to defang militant groups. Though Pakistan has asserted Afghanistan of prompt action, as of now nothing has changed on ground.

Recently US launched a drone attack on Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar killing him in the Balouchistan province of Pakistan. Various factions of Taliban under Mullah Akhtar’s leadership grappled hard to find a common chord, his sudden death is believed to unify the groups under new leader, Haibatullah Akhunzada who is deeply religious. Subsequently the tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are set to rise. Aptly, Modi pulled out all stops to reach to Afghanistan. By sealing a resourceful trilateral cooperation with Iran and Afghanistan over the Chabahar port, India promises to bring additional sources of revenue to the country relying heavily on foreign assistance. By offering support at right time, India has successfully weaned Afghanistan from Pakistan’s deeply tangled opportunistic web. This move, would by and large subdue the anxieties of US, which is contemplating rapid withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. The trilateral cooperation and new sense of rejuvenation instilled by Modi through inauguration of Salma Dam might offer needed succor to the perilous security situation of Afghanistan. India has also signed TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipeline reiterating its commitment towards Afghanistan’s economic development.

Moreover, a stable Afghanistan is in best of Indian interests as otherwise it would soon be a breeding ground for jihadi forces targeting Kashmir. To mitigate the unstable backyard, India has unleashed its soft power and has been providing all kinds of assistance. These include-food assistance for 1.5million school children through World Food program, 100 scholarships annually to Afghan students, capacity building for Afghan civil servants and empowerment of Afghan women and youth, 500 scholarships for children of martyrs of Afghan security force, training and medical treatment in India for personnel of Afghan NSDF, establishment of diagnostic center and construction of waste water treatment plant in Kabul.  A blossoming Indo-Afghan relations can curb growing Pakistani influence in the region. Critics lashed out at India for squandering a traditionally strong relationship with Afghanistan when Ashraf Ghani wooed Pakistan. But within a year, Ghani’s strategy miserably failed, forcing him to embrace India. Overwhelmed by the growing Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang Province, China is keen on taking lead role in regional stability. It is congruently building military ties with Afghanistan. China exuded interest in deepening security ties with Afghanistan and talks with regards to cooperation on counter-terrorism and intelligence and training of security personnel are on the agenda. New Delhi is currently displaying unusual tenacity in strengthening ties with Afghanistan. Being a traditional partner of Afghanistan, India is poised to have a better edge.

With Modi all set to deepen ties with the US, stabilizing Afghanistan can be a shared objective wherein both countries can work towards initiating various developmental program to bring back crippled Afghan economy to its heels. Afghanistan issue finds mention in the joint Indo-US statement too. US perplexed by deteriorating security conditions of Afghanistan is mulling cooperation of a regional partner for reconstruction of Afghanistan. Modi’s current visit has instilled a ray of optimism in Afghanistan, but the panoply of Afghan history is riddled by several travesties. Afghanistan is a tough country. India must refrain from putting boots on ground and pragmatically engage in reconstruction activities.

 

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Brexit: to remain or not to remain is the question

With United Kingdom all set to hold a referendum on June 23^rd to decide whether it should remain in the EU or exit, in other words, “Brexit”, from EU and its implications are now enthusiastically discussed. European countries rummaged by World War II in a bid to resurrect their economies began forging trade arrangements to propel growth engines. Accrediting that globalization with seamless boundaries can be a panacea for extreme nationalism penchant, European nations embarked on a collaborative trading activity. These trading arrangements in turn laid strong foundations for a vibrant European Union (EU). The origins of the resilient European Union comprising of 28 countries covering 7.3% of the global population, generating $ 18.495 trillion accounting for 24% of global GDP can be traced to the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), European Economic Community (EEC) and European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC). The founding members, fondly referred as inner six countries- Belgium, France, Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands and West Germany responding to the call for pooling steel and coal resources created ECSC in 1951. All the arrangements created (EEC, ECSC, EAEC) by them were soon termed as European Communities by 1967. The community grew in size and strength with the joining of the Outer Seven- Austria, Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and UK. Indeed the archetypal globalization principle imbibed and adopted by these war-torn nations propelled financial growth and steered them towards quintessential economic development.  By 1985, Schengen Agreement was reached paving way for creation of open borders ensuring free movement of goods, men and material without passport between member nations and certain non-members. Finally with the ratification of Maastricht treaty or Treaty on European Union, EU came into force on November 1^st 1993 and Euro was adopted as currency by member nations subsequently. UK is not part of Eurozone and hence it has its own currency (Pound). It is not part of Schengen area, so it has greater sovereignty over its boundaries. UK joined EU in 1973.

EU basically relied on three pillars –European Communities that handled social, economic and environmental policies, Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Police & Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters (PJCCM) earlier named as Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) till 2009. Under the Treaty of Lisbon, in 2009, pillar system was abolished and replaced with legal personality for the Union. This treaty even conferred upon member countries an explicit legal right to leave EU.

EU steadily progressed and accomplished cherished goals of economic development with collaborative efforts till the early 2000. But the economic recession of 2008 took a great toll on European markets leaving several countries reeling under its impact. Even now Southern European countries are witnessing harrowing phases of stagnant economic growth, plunging markets, burgeoning unemployment rate. These nations have failed to recover completely. Financial meltdown of 2008 shook the faith of these countries in the globalization and open markets. Consequently the burden of the fiscal deficit was steadily felt by other nations of EU as the economically well-to-do nations were obligated to step in and rescue the nations in recession. UK makes contributions to the tune of $9 million to EU which are pumped as aid to assist financially battling nations. Further the recent episodes of financial bail outs of Greece, unabated inflow of migrants from the Middle-East and African countries began to create fissures among the nations. Furious debates regarding rehabilitation of the economic migrants at the port of entry (mostly Southern European Nations) and impending financial burden on the host nations began to emerge as issues of major discontent. UK and Germany the two largest economies which share similar perspectives with regard to functioning of EU starkly differed on the issue of migration. EU which exemplified glory of the varied diversity began to creek under the burden of disastrous financial effects and varied perspectives.

Britain which expressed dissatisfaction over functioning of bloated bureaucracy, prevalence of massive corruption and inflexibility of rules and regulations of EU is now worried about the uncontrolled infiltration of migrants. It began to complain of lack of democracy in functioning of EU and was frustrated by EU’s inability to control immigration issues. Miffed by deliberate disregard for the Dublin Convention, that obligates the first port of entry to provide asylum UK began to rise alarm. It demanded certain concessions from EU. In February 2016, Cameron made hard bargains to levitate towards EU. He extricated commitment of keeping Britain away from the goal of “ever closer union” from EU and ensured that Britain will not fund future Euro bailouts.

Marred by fears of political split within his party and burgeoning Euroskepticism in Britain’s political dispensation, David Cameron promised to conduct referendum if reelected in 2015. Britain was not the founding member of EU. It joined EU in 1973 and remained largely as a transactional member. From the beginning, Labor party had serious reservations about Britain’s accession to EU. In 1975 due to mounting skepticism and to avert serious political crisis, Harold Wilson of Labour party conducted a referendum. The results clearly favored Britain remaining with the European Economic Community (EEC). But by 1980’s Margret Thatcher antipathetic to EEC’s regulations, downsized Britain’s contribution to EEC. Following a surge of Euroskepticism this time from the UK independence party (UKIP) and others, Britain will be voting once again to decide its fate. By and large, it was believed that the old generation was in favor of Brexit as against the younger generation who are worried about the prospects of employment generation once Britain pulls off from EU. The Take Control, Leave Campaign is insisting on full control or supreme sovereignty and pulling all its strings to ensure Brexit. Britain’s claims of supreme sovereignty in eternity is illusionary as they are party to over 700 international treaties that contravene their sovereignty (membership of NATO mandates it to fight for member country in trouble).

With many critics indicating that since EU is incapable of reform the best course of action for UK would lie in parting ways with the alliance. To the question of sustenance of its relations with other nations, Leave campaign suggested that bilateral relations with a country on one to one basis might be more impactful than seeking ties through an alliance of countries. Sadly, this argument holds no ground during bilateral trade as negotiating countries would prefer reaching out to a bigger markets making EU (500 million consumers) a favored choice for trade as compared to miniscule markets of UK (65 million consumers). Thus, uncertainty surrounding trade pacts and bilateral trade negotiations may hit Britain’s economy in case of Brexit. In fact, TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, between US and EU) best validates this argument, bigger nations are more inclined to join and trade with a consortium. If Britain leaves EU, to set a precedent, EU might tighten its trade norms for UK. Over 3 million jobs in Britain are linked to trade with EU and Brexit might result in loss of 950,000 jobs.

Meanwhile the leave campaign gained much traction as its anti-immigration perspective was strengthened by the recent Orlando mass killing by American gunman Omar Mateen of Afghan descent. The campaign has been using Brussels attacks too to stoke fears among general public who are inimical to migration. In reply remain campaign, reiterated the remarks of French Economic Affairs minister who warned that in case of Brexit, France might pull out from the Le Touquet bilateral agreement. This agreement allows British border officers to carry out passport checks at the Anglo-French border at French port Calais preventing illegal migration. If this arrangement is annulled, 3,500 refugees living the refugee slum will be deported to UK. Amidst these raging uncertainties and tilting of scales between the leave and remain campaign, stock markets have already plunged crippling domestic financial stability.

Moreover experts cautioned that Brexit may hit GDP by 2-7%. Sterling might be weakened further and inflation might soon ensue. Volatility of Sterling might soon push Europe into recession. Japan will follow the suit and subsequently US economy will slow down. Indian markets too will be affected by fluctuations in global markets. Brexit might hamper flow of investments and funds to India. Moreover volatility of Sterling might create problems in currency exchange. Over 800 Indian-Owned business operating from UK employing about 110,000 might be affected immediately. Britain on the other hand, might lose access to EU markets which make up to 40-45% of its exports. Being a strong country, Britain’s exit will hurt EU economically and politically.

Brexit poll survey of Financial Times indicated that 44% prefer remaining in EU, 47% favor Brexit and 8% are undecided indicating that it is a close call for all. Till now no country withdrew from EU. Conversely, countries in Europe (Switzerland, Iceland and Norway) not part of EU are economically, politically safe and viable. While Brexit may not be catastrophic it will cumulatively slow down the growth. Brexit might embolden other European countries who might soon follow the suit and call for referendum demanding more powers from EU.

Changing global scenarios and paradigms are pushing nations to adopt new alternative doctrines/narratives. Migration which was a non-issue few decades has changed the dynamics of EU and political scenarios in member countries. Angela Merkel of Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a liberal conservative party, feted internationally for her open call to accommodate immigrants is now poised to brace political ouster for her pro-immigration stand. Across the globe, anti-immigration parties are slowly clinching power, protectionist ideologues are gaining more ground. While globalization undoubtedly catapulted the economic progression of nations, incredulous dogmas of intolerance, bigotry and xenophobia are slowly crippling the existing narratives. Moreover, the overwhelming recourse of extreme nationalism which stoked unrest and fear previously is now unduly embraced. This referendum besides being a gamble of a century is set to mirror new apprehensions about the concept of European integration. Unlike the previous referendum, Brexit is not driven by Euroskepticism alone. But steered by collective obligation of finding solutions for socio, economic and political problems (Viz., uncontrolled immigration, stagnant growth, unemployment and subdued democratic choices). Meanwhile, the tragic death of Jo Cox, a pro-EU legislator is believed to tilt scales in favor of remain campaign.

 

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Book Review- Husain Haqqani’s India Vs Pakistan: Why can’t we just be friends?

Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani ambassador to US and Sri Lanka, adviser to four Pakistan Prime ministers and an expert on India-Pakistan bilateral issues recently authored a book: India Vs Pakistan: Why Can’t we just be friends?. The book was widely quoted in the Indian media for its scintillating revelations that shed light on Pakistan’s involvement in Mumbai attacks. The author formally disclosed that former ISI Chief, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha shortly after Mumbai attacks on his visit to Washington in December 2008, has admitted that planners of 26/11 were their people during meetings with CIA counterpart General Michel Hayden. Pakistani General further added that planners included “retired Pakistan military officers and retired intelligence officers”  indicating that the attackers has links to ISI but quickly dismissed that the operation was not authorized by ISI. Pakistan’s duplicity was reinforced by General Hayden in his book, “Playing to the Edge”. Besides, this book the conversations were referred in two more books earlier. These include the personal memoirs of Condoleezza Rice, US National Security Adviser and in Obama Wars, written by Bob Woodward. These revelations have not only corroborated Indian claims and evidences that essentially reveal Pakistan’s hand but also unmasked the veil of ignorance dawned by Islamabad. While the revelations are just a tip of iceberg, Haqqani in this book unequivocally addressed the reasons for the pathological hatred of Pakistan towards India and how the narrow space of bilateral friendship have been shrinking for the past seven decades.

Haqqani who was facing the charges of treason for allegedly writing to US Admiral Mike Mullen (aftermath of US raid in Abbottabad to track down Osama bin Laden) seeking for direct US intervention in an event of armed coup against the Pakistani civilian government. Indicted for Memogate, Haqqani was forced to resign as ambassador and is now director of South and Central Asia at Hudson Institute, Washington. He authored two books earlier: Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, The US and an Epic History of Misunderstanding and Pakistan between Mosque and Military. In his new work, released on June 4^th, he prudently avoided rich details of various milestones that heralded the Indo-Pakistan relations. Instead, he logically tried to address various aspects that plagued the bilateral ties and stalled the blossoming of engagement into friendly partnership. Lamenting the state of affairs with Pakistan slowly gaining traction on the global platform for its anti-Indianess, the neighboring countries, separated by partition are on verge of becoming avenged enemies.

Over the course of past seven decades, both nations had ample opportunities to redress their animosities, misunderstandings but overpowered by mistrust and lack of cooperation both neighbors gravely missed the recourses. By embracing the two-nation theory Jinnah inevitably sparked the creation of Pakistan solely based on religion. Further the communal friction and carnage associated with partition left an indelible mark on Pakistan. While author elucidates that Jinnah aspired that India and Pakistan should maintain an association that exists between US and Canada, mired in anti-Indianness and entrenched in hatred towards Hindus, Pakistan grossly failed to foster friendly ties with India. As a matter of fact, the problems between the nations have emanated from the Pakistan’s pathological obsession and hatred towards India. While Pakistan claims that Kashmir is the root cause for all the problems, in reality Kashmir is rather the symptom of the troubles. Despite the passionate appeals of Gandhi who strongly condemned the two-nation doctrine, that advocated division of a nation on basis of religion, Partition was consummated. Gandhi even forewarned that India and Pakistan might eventually end up as perpetual enemies.  Truly, over seven decades, issues had bred “fear psychoses” among people. While both nations are to be blamed for the current state of affairs, Pakistan’s avowed animosity towards India has complicated the situation beyond repair.

Muslim League hell bent on partition, were largely convinced that a state carved on religious lines would resolve the predilections of majority and minority community. They welcomed the legislation on partition approved by Mountbatten. Congress on the other hand, condemned the resolution and argued that it can be a “temporary solution” and reaffirmed the territorial integrity of Indian sub-continent. But had to cede ground to the new legislation 62 ahead of independence. Most of the Pakistani leaders, post-partition reinterpreted Congress resolution as India’s desire to undo the partition. These apprehensions were strongly perpetuated and Bangladesh’s liberation fanned this false doctrine. Had India aggressively pursued the false doctrine, it should have annexed the East Pakistan (later Bangladesh). Further any reference to shared culture, history and values too fuelled wild fears in Pakistan as they were deemed to “erode the identity of Pakistan’s nationhood”. Together these false narratives, angst of partition and a deep-seated pursuit to remain an Islamic nation kindled Pakistan’s animosities against India. Moreover, to create an identity for itself among the coterie of nations, Pakistan virtually embraced the principles of Islam and condoned Hinduism. Even the political leaders and military officials slowly moved away from the secularist ideology propounded by Jinnah and assimilated religious ideology.

Indeed Kashmir has turned into bone of contention between both the countries as Pakistan believed that according to the two-nation doctrine, the Muslim majority provinces should have been part of Pakistan. All the 14 Muslim majority provinces (princely states) within the territory or contiguous to Pakistan failed to accede except for Swat at the time of independence. Eventually all of them joined Pakistan except for Balochistan which was forcibly annexed by Pakistan in 1948. On the contrary except for six of the 548 princely states all of them acceded to India Union. The six included Travancore, Bhopal, Jodhpur, Junagadh, Hyderabad and Jammu and Kashmir. All the states except Jammu and Kashmir were Hindu majority and eventually all of them fell in line and joined Indian Union. Kashmir ruled by Hindu ruler, Hari Singh initially signed a Standstill agreement with Pakistan to buy time while India wanted no less than a legalized formal agreement. Downcast by Indian leadership agility to coerce princely states, Muslim League politicians launched an attack on Kashmir with tribal leaders from the neighboring Afghanistan. Panicked Hari Singh then signed Instrument of Accession with India on October 26^th 1947. By the end of 1948 war, 35% of province was in hands of Pakistan, 48% under Indian Union and the remaining area now is controlled by China. Nehru sought intervention of UN which constituted the Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) that called for a plebiscite in the province to honor the right of self-determination of Kashmiri people. But indeed plebiscite couldn’t be held till today as Pakistan failed to comply the conditions set by UN. In the meanwhile, India slowly legalized the accession process. By 1952 the accession was ratified by Jammu Kashmir Constituent Assembly and India created a provision in the Indian constitution to accord special status to Jammu and Kashmir province making it an integral part of India. As per the two nation theory, Pakistan argues that it has claims over Kashmir. With reference to Kashmir, Haqqani elaborates that Jinnah proclaimed that “Kashmir is the jugular vein of Pakistan”. Despite its obsession, Pakistan is hamstrung by its inability to evolve a concrete strategy to accomplish its mission. Due to its dubious approaches Pakistan lost international support too. By and large Pakistan began to slowly rely on the irregular warfare (stirring rebellion in Kashmir in 1947) adopted by Pakistan just months after partition till today. It began to finance the nefarious activities of the militants under the ruse of jihadi ideology. In 1965, Pakistan initiated the hostilities across the borders by pushing infiltrators into India leading to escalation of tensions which eventually precipitated into a full-fledged war.  Subsequently, this resulted in the replacement of the India-Pakistan passport that facilitated easy movement of men and material between the countries with international passport making visa requirements mandatory.

Aside Kashmir issue, the major bickering for Pakistan has been its obsession to seek parity with India especially on military front. After partition, while India followed non-aligned policy, Pakistan tried to woo US and began milking the major super power for advanced armory, weapons and financial aid in return for strategic favors of containing the spread of communism in the sub-continent. It also ambitiously pursued its mission Kashmir by escalating strives and fomenting jihadi ideology. It instigated Kashmiri youth and continued to expedite unabated nurturing of militancy. Having driven Russia out of the region through its insidious terror operations, Pakistan believed that it can wage similar low-cost irregular warfare against India. While the insurgencies and terror attacks were initially confined to Kashmir, bolstered by animosity, Pakistan wanted to bleed India by thousand cuts. The terror network powered and patronized by Pakistan army soon began to proliferate its branches across various parts of India and partially succeeded in inflicting major wounds to India. Humiliated by the loss of its eastern wing, Pakistan fomented trouble in bordering Punjab by financially aiding Khalistan movement. Though Pakistan claims that India has been carrying out similar covert operations in Balouchistan, till now it failed produce any evidence against the RA&W of India.

Besides, amassing advanced conventional war weaponry, Pakistan clandestinely developed its nuclear program. India strongly believed in the nuclear non-proliferation and questioned the rationale of big nations that accumulated nuclear stock piles. Though India was against nuclear arms race, India hasn’t ruled out use of nuclear energy for civilian purposes. With China carrying out nuclear test in 1964 India was forced to change its stance. Fresh from the defeat of Indo-Sino war in 1962, India began to work on nuclear weapons and refused to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Pakistan too refused to sign NPT. India conducted first nuclear test in 1974. With India developing nuclear weapons, citing “Indian threat” Pakistan embarked on the nuclear program and secretly obtained reactors from China. In 1998, India conducted second set of nuclear tests. Pakistan didn’t lag behind. Within a month, it tested six such weapons against India’s five to signify that it is no less than its bigger neighbor. When India sealed Civil nuclear treaty with US in 2005 it sought similar arrangement with US. After the Bangladesh Liberation war of 1971, humiliated by defeat, Z.A. Bhutto exhorted that “We will eat grass, but we will get of our own. We have no choice”. Under the broader narrative of Pakistan nationalism, scientists and engineers were motivated to develop nuclear weapons. Unlike other countries that developed nuclear weapons to deter enemies Pakistan’s continues to justify nuke production as a counter to Indian attacks. By this logic, with acquisition of nukes Pakistan’s insecurity should have vanished. But even now it repeatedly luxuriates in existential threat of India. While India avowed no first use of nukes, Pakistan made no concessions and has been covertly stalling India’s attempts to gain entry into various nuclear regimes.

The crux of the India-Pakistan problems is inveterately linked to resolution of Kashmir issue. But with both parties unable to reach a common ground the issue may remain unresolved in the near future. Realizing the need for building trust, good will and understanding, India made fervent appeals to Pakistan that both countries must strengthen economic ties, cultural ties and facilitate people to people movement. But Pakistan army is strictly averse to any such confidence building measures and resolutely persistent on finding solution for Kashmir dispute. Despite former Chinese President Jiang Zemin’s advice of putting off Kashmir issue temporarily to “build normal state-to-state relations”, Pakistan obsessed with India may never relent. Pakistan’s carnal hatred towards India is indeed now badly affecting regional stability. While the onus of dispute resolution lies with both countries, the obdurate attitude of Pakistan is complicating the issue.

Haqqani in his book clearly chalked out various measures that should be adopted to reach an agreement over the seven decade old dispute that is roiling the peace and stability of the region. By conveniently dividing the issue into succinct chapters that are the heart of bilateral animosities, Haqqani explained the problem in a nutshell. By and large, we Indians, largely view Indo-Pakistani relations through an Indian prism, reading the facts enunciated by a Pakistani counterpart might offer solutions with newer perspective.

 

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India's NSG Pursuit

Modi’s fourth visit to US in a span of two years has kept media abuzz. To all the critics, sticking out their neck with a predilection of “Is Modi’s visit to US justified”? The answer is yes. Modi was invited to address the joint session of Congress which he graciously accepted. He fastidiously used the bilateral visit to foster India’s membership to the elite global nuclear regime, Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). India have always aspired to join four export control regimes- Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Australia Group(AG) and Wassennar Arrangement (WA) that endears it towards the objective of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). With the aggressive endorsement of US India successfully cleared the final hurdle to be part of the MTCR. Interestingly, India clinched this milestone during Modi’s current visit to US. India’s entry into the 34-member nuclear group dominated by the West subject to opposition by Italy was delayed. With India successfully resolving the pending Italian Marines case, India’s accession was met with no opposition and membership was endorsed automatically. But India’s next stride into NSG is fraught by severe opposition.

The ongoing plenary meeting of NSG in Vienna on June 9-10^th was called to consider India’s candidature for NSG. The unprecedented euphoria about NSG witnessed currently is a culmination of pugnacious geo-political aspirations and India’s rigorous pursuit to make it to global nuclear regime. Consequently, NSG meetings have turned into platform for “contestations between US and China to determine the future of the nuclear and world order”. Unlike MTCR’s membership, to which China is not member, Indian chances of making it to NSG is bogged down by strong opposition from the Dragon. While India’s chances of making it to NSG received a new fillip by its admission into MTCR, China’s impervious opposition may scuttle India’s hopes. Equally so, Pakistan which is obsessed of seeking parity with India has also applied for membership of NSG leaving no stone unturned to stifle Indian chances through its “all weather friend”. China who is currently facing economic downturn has not only turned aggressive and hegemonic but is blatantly challenging the global leadership of US. Notwithstanding US’s open call to all the 47 members of the trading cartel to support India China is defiant. Indeed Modi’s current “consolidation trip” is steered by Indian pursuit of obtaining support for NSG membership. Modi during on his visit to Switzerland and Mexico garnered support for India’s NSG membership. Thanks to US lobbying and Indian outreach Turkey, New Zealand and South Africa softened their stance. India’s dream of entering global nuclear regime received a new lease for life when Bush administration softened its stance and expressed willingness to enter into a formal civil nuclear agreement with India in 2005. India endured the grueling 123 US Congress agreement before nuclear deal could be signed in 2008.  Former Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh expedited the whole issue and is laid foundation for Indian pursuits.

 

 

NSG was created to maintain transparency in nuclear related export-controls and to facilitate dialogue, cooperation among all the countries party to the treaty. Shortly after Nuclear non-proliferation came into vogue in 1970, two committees were appointed to develop a framework for nuclear exports, of which the Zangger Committee established in 1971 soon reincarnated into Nuclear Suppliers Group in 1975.  In response to India’s first nuclear tests in 1974, series of meetings were held by Canada, France, Japan, Soviet Union, UK, US and West Germany to lay basic guidelines that would ensure nuclear cooperation and potentially reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation. Unofficially referred to as “London Club”, all suppliers of nuclear material, non-nuclear material for reactors, equipment and technology and other non-NPT members issued new guidelines in 1978 to govern functioning of NSG. Over a period of time several new guidelines were added to plug gaps and contain the risk of nuclear proliferation by rogue nations. In line with NSG guidelines, in 2008 India separated the nuclear facilities as per civilian and military use, obtained approval of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) board and adhered to an additional protocol to its safeguards agreement with the IEAE. India strengthened its domestic export control system, upgraded Special Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment and Technology (SCOMET) list in line with export control regimes, continued a moratorium on nuclear testing and formulated steps towards Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).   Further India is now party to The Hague Code of Conduct (HCoC) against Ballistic Missile Proliferation which brightened India’s accession to MTCR but created a momentum for its entry into other nuclear regimes. Upon formally evaluating various steps taken by Indian government, exceptions were made for India ensuring its entry into global nuclear market in 2008 upon US’s persistence. China was miffed and unwillingly agreed to such exceptions under duress then. Currently, India enjoys all the benefits conferred on NSG by virtue of civil nuclear deal 2008 without being a party to it.

Globalized economic development and climate change concerns are now forcing nations to seek alternative sources of energy. Nuclear-energy generation offers a promise of meeting rising global energy needs. India evinced great interest for nuclear-power generation and is committed to the objective of increasing the contribution of nuclear power to the tune of 40% by 2025. Realizing the growing potential of India’s nuclear energy market, US lobbied hard to make exceptions in 2008. Obama maintained the same stance and appealed like-minded nations to support India’s membership for plausible economic benefits.

Think-tanks in India have recently carried out assessment of India’s eligibility for seeking membership into all four regimes. A working paper evaluated Indian case on the basis of defined factors set by all four nuclear regimes. Interestingly, four parameters or set criteria are similar for all of them. These are-a good track record of non-proliferation, support international efforts towards reduction and elimination of fissile material, proven technical experience and legally enforced domestic export control system. To strengthen its claims for membership, India signed the IAEA’s INFCIRC/869 agreement and Modi recently affirmed to step up measures to conform India’s nuclear security to international standards at Nuclear Security Summit (NSS), Washington. But India fails to meet one parameter of NSG, “adherence to one or more of the NPT, the treaties of Pelindaba, Rarotonga, Taltelolco, Bangkok, Semipalantisk or an equivalent international non-proliferation agreement, and full compliance with the obligations of such agreement (s).”  NSG Procedural Arrangement notes records that it is not incumbent to meet every parameter since they are factors for consideration (not mandatory criteria). Implying that India can be part of the group if consensus is reached. Agreement of all members is essential for taking a political decision on admitting new member.

Now, China is blazing all its guns, raising serious objections to India’s NSG membership. China insisted that all members must be signatories of NPT. On its part, India reminded that France, the founding member of NSG is not party to NPT till 1992. Similarly Japan was member of NSG before it signed NPT. Even Argentina and Brazil were invited to be part of NSG before they joined NPT. China is playing devil’s advocate by hyphenating India with Pakistan. The dubious arguments seriously rises doubts about China intentions. Despite being party to NPT much earlier, China stayed away from NSG for more than three decades joining in 2004. It clandestinely transferred nuclear technology to Pakistan and Iran, finalized a bilateral nuclear agreement with Pakistan days before its accession to NSG. After joining NSG, in 2009 it supplied two nuclear reactors Chasma 3 & 4 in addition to Chasma 1 & 2 constructed earlier. In 2013, defying the NSG objectives it built two nuclear reactors in Karachi. Alarmingly, no member objected China’s brazenness. While nuclear regimes claim high moral ground for upholding nuclear proliferation, principally these arrangements ensured P5 to amass and proliferate nuclear stock piles extracting the promise of abjuring WMD from all others. Just as China helped Pakistan to build its nuclear technology infrastructure, US aided Israel. EU too have debunked NSG objectives to protect its private firms.

To assuage apprehensions of India’s nuclear proliferation and to obtain consensus India reached extensively to all member states. But Pakistan’s application for NSG membership on May 19^th is marauding India’s prospects. By hoisting its candidature to the group, Islamabad has brought the longstanding perilous South Asian nuclear rivalry to the fore. Pakistan is notoriously famous for state sponsored terrorism and pandering to nuclear arms race. But Islamabad minced no words in saying that it continues to indulge in nuclear weapons development to defend itself from India. In short, while Islamabad’s candidature stands no chance for the botched up nuclear record and history of misdemeanors, it can bulldoze India’s prospects. Ever since American offer of civil nuclear deal with India in 2005, Pakistan has been hankering for similar arrangement with US and seriously plotting to enter nuclear regimes to regain parity with India. Pakistani famed nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan was caught selling nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya. Pakistan’s nuclear expertise is contentious unlike India’s proven record of handling nuclear reactors. India indigenously developed nuclear reactors and reached new heights in building fast breeding and thorium reactors.

India complies with all the factors necessary for consideration but India’s its membership is plagued by the geopolitical aspirations of China who publicly expressed its reservations. NSG membership would elevate India’s status in the evolving global order. It will add weight to India’s long cherished dream of obtaining permanent membership in the extended UNSC. India painstaking followed a strategy to strengthen its credentials for NSG. Incase India’s accession is denied, with concerted efforts it should expand nuclear capabilities in research, design and manufacturing and develop its own parallel nuclear market. Indian space industry too endured the hard knocks of international sanctions to evolve as a competitive challenger in global space market.

 

 

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50th Anniversary of China’s Cultural Revolution

On May 16^th China silently mourned the Grand Proletarian Cultural Revolution, brainchild of the legendary Mao Zedong fifty years ago. As the citizens ruefully recollect the infamous decade of the calamity, the mouth piece of Communist Party of China, breaks silence promising that another Cultural Revolution would never happen. While there was no official event reckoning the decade of chaos there were muted discussions on the same in the Chinese social media platforms. But unlike the Tiananmen Square incident discussions on Cultural Revolution are not censored by Chinese government. Ironically, China which claims to be an emerging power has one of the severely repressed media and government overtly controls the internet too. Together, lack of credible information and absence of clear media reportage on events past and present impeded common understanding of contemporary Chinese history. Hence any firsthand account of individuals who lived through the tiring times can help in unraveling the past events. To this end, my own curiosity of the initial days of China were comprehensively satiated by a poignant, intense and gripping family memoir- “Wild Swans- the Three Daughters of China” authored by Jung Chang.

After the tumultuous defeat at the hands of Allied powers, Japan was forced to withdraw from China. Soon China slipped into a civil war and the Communist Party of China under the helmsman ship of Mao Zedong seized power and established Peoples Republic of China (PRC) by defeating Kuomintang Forces who fled to Taiwan subsequently. By 1949, the fledgling nation was marred by rampant poverty, lawlessness, corruption and espionage broke the backbone of the economy. Persons who served the party and ingrained veritable principles and ideals of Communism held all the official positions. Soon the party cadres at various positions brought about massive changes reflecting party’s ideology in all spheres of live. People were disenchanted with policies like community kitchens and regulated rationing of fuel, food and other essential supplies. Common man was disappointed by the authoritarian travails of Mao regime. To placate the public who silently moaned an oppressive government Mao announced hundred flowers policy in 1956 to promote to arts, literature and scientific research. In 1957 Mao appealed intellectuals to criticize officials who made concessions and tripped communist ideals. Oblivious of Mao’s tactics, intellectuals enthusiastically expounded their views. These were subsequently labelled as “rightists”. About half million of such individuals from all walks of life were effectively purged off from their jobs and sent off to country side to do manual jobs. Their families were treated as second-class citizens. Mao thus effectively annihilated opposition and completely silenced new ideas (capitalist and western).

Soon, Mao launched an initiative, The Great Leap Forward to transform the traditionally agrarian Chinese economy and ambitiously embarked producing steel. While his vision for a resurgent China is commendable, the path employed to achieve it was utterly ridiculous. People were prohibited from cooking food at home and fuel supplies were pooled to incessantly burn steel furnaces. Scrap metal was collected fed to steel furnaces. While Children collected metal pieces, adults were expected to keep the furnace burning uninterruptedly. Farming was neglected and trees were indiscriminately cut and fed to burning furnaces. Consequently rainfall became erratic, crop production drastically fell leading to severe food shortage. Eventually the nation stared at a famine from 1958 through 1961, The Three Bitter Years, resulting in the death of around 40 million people. Soon officials and party officials began to denounce Mao and condemned the ludicrous Great Leap Forward. In a bid to assert control over party cadres and to destroy his enemies (supporters/sympathizers of Kuomintang) Mao unleashed the fiery campaign of Cultural Revolution.

Mao came up with the idea of Cultural Revolution in 1966 spear headed by his wife Jiang Qing designed to annihilate any revisionist ideas. The May 16^th notification document of the party announced that party was “infiltrated by counter-revolutionary revisionists who were plotting to create a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie”. By June 1^st the movement commanded by paramilitary force of students spread like a wild fire. Following a warning call from the party mouth piece, the student force christened as “Red Guards”, carried out all-out assault on persons, who failed to conform to norms dictated by party. In the process, they eliminated “capitalist-roaders” in other words-dissidents in party cadres, scholars, official and intellectuals. The movement also called for destruction of four olds-old customs, culture, habits and ideas. Overpowered by the support from the Chairman Mao students went on rampage and anything/ anyone objectionable to the principles enunciated by Mao were destroyed. Having beautiful lawns, pleasurable lives, poetry, art forms, enjoying a tea in coffee shops were all considered “bourgeois” and pulled down. Life soon became insipid, dull and moreover violent. Even the traditional structures, paintings, monuments, artefacts, books in the library with classical literature were ruined. Schools, museums, libraries, shops and private homes were ransacked. High officials who questioned the destruction were condemned at denunciation meetings and publicly humiliated. Within the first two months of the Cultural Revolution nearly 1800 people lost their lives.

By 1968 situation spiraled out of control, Red terror began to spread at tremendous pace. Realizing the crux of the deterioration, Mao ordered the Army to restore order. In the meanwhile, children of capitalist-roaders were packed off to country side especially to counties in hills. They were assigned menial and arduous jobs. Unable to bear the rampant cruelty, torture and suspicion several thousands have committed suicides. With Army called in to take control, death toll increased. The revolution lasted for a decade resulting in persecution of 1.5 million people with lives of several millions were brutally trampled. Economy was reduced to tatters and country was socially destabilized. The political careers of several communist leaders were upended- these included Deng Xiaoping, Xi Zhongxun, father of President Xi Jinping. The 13 year old Xi, at the time of revolution witnessed the brutal attacks endured by his family. His family was forced to flee and one of his sisters were persecuted. Curtains finally rolled over the entire massacre with the death of Mao on September 9^th 1976 and normalcy was finally restored. Significantly, to keep morale of the red guards high, reading sessions of the cultural revolution’ official hand book, The Little Red Book were held. With over billion copies of the book printed so far, it is one of the most printed book on earth.

Cultural Revolution was marred by sheer high-handedness, strict control and flagrant repression. Government brutally clamped down fundamental rights like the freedom of expression, speech and liberty of the citizens. Reckoned as the darkest days of Communist, the bone chilling stories of brutality in the worst affected regions of southern province of Guangxi reported incidents of cannibalism too. The cries of hapless people tried for no fault of theirs evokes pity.  Amidst this crisis, Richard Nixon visited China to “re-establish” ties between both the countries. Between 1971 and 1976, China has virtually slipped into a military dictatorship. Truly “(Mao) was as evil as Hitler or Stalin and did as much damage to mankind as they did”. But he was smart enough to pass off European despots without much condemnation and without denting his image. After the death of Mao, a trial was conducted and the Gang of Four- Jiang Qing, Wife of Mao, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, Wang Hongwen and General Lin Biao were indicted for the travesty that prevailed in China.

Through a disguised civil war (Cultural Revolution) Mao aspired to project China as lodestar of communism. By 1980 retraced its path, steadily charted out economic reforms, embraced Capitalism, reaped economic boom and emerged as predominant manufacturing hub. Ironically, even now Communist Party exercises greater restrain in condemning the atrocities of the Cultural Revolution. Just 10 days before the start of the 50^th anniversary, a concert was held at Beijing’s Great Hall of People praising Cultural Revolution, singing accolades to Mao Zedong and Red Songs. Though China proclaims that a Cultural Revolution can never make a comeback an increasingly assertive China evoking nationalism at drop of hat can never be immune to extreme leftist ideology.

For all the loud admonitions, outlandish remarks and spurious aggression condemning Indian government of intolerance, the Elite Indian Leftist intellectuals may first thoroughly introspect their ideological affiliations. Deafening silence, muted responses commemorating 50^th anniversary of Cultural Revolution from the tempered Indian liberals reflects their duplicitous stance. As citizens of largest democracy, Indians must be eternally grateful to the founding fathers of our constitution for the priceless treasure of fundamental rights and uncensored media.

 

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