After Iraq, Libya and Syria now Turkey seems to slipping into
chaos and disorder. Three suicide bombers launched attacks near Istanbul’s
Ataturk airport, third- busiest in the World killing 41 people and injuring
over 230 people on June 28th. Bomb attacks carried by IS and PKK,
Kurdish Militant groups in Turkey over the past one year have claimed lives of
200 civilians. Till now Turkey’s participation in the regional chaotic war was
augured by aspiration of unseating Assad’s regime in Syria. This latest brazen
attack in Istanbul, a hub of tourism and business transactions has hit its
reputation as a safe place. An embroiled Turkey might go all guns blazing at IS
now. At this juncture, it would be pertinent to understand why Turkey has been
sinking into a quandary of exigencies.
Currently Turkey is sequestered by deadly Syrian civil war,
inflow of refugees, attacks of invincible terror network and an authoritarian
government plunging it into an unfathomable abyss. The incipient muck is an
outcome of flawed policies wherein Turkey has become a base camp of arms and
weapons to the terrorists to be funneled into Syria. Some experts drew a simile
with Pakistan and haven’t shied away from coining the word Pakistanisation of Turkey. Just as Afghan Talibans found safe
havens in Pakistan, the terror networks operating the region are having safe
havens in Turkey. The series of recent bombings across Turkey killing innocent
civilians is sending distress signals characteristic of a failed state.
Turkey, a trusted NATO ally which shares huge border with
Syria, the global hub of terrorism is supposed to be afflicted by the scourge
of “ethno-nationalist zealotry”. From 1970’s Kurds have been fighting for
autonomy and aspired to create independent Kurdistan. The nationalist movement
was headed by Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) initially waging guerilla wars
from behind high terrains of mountains on Turkish Security Forces. It slowly
gained momentum and launched first major attack in 1984. PKK soon emerged as an
imminent threat to Turkey in response to its decades of authoritarian regime
that imposed curbs on the language and culture of Kurds. Kurds majorly were
staunchest opponents of the extremist terror group IS. While PKK is not
representative of Kurds it has immense support in Turkey compared to IS. In the
fall of 2014 relations between PKK and Turkish government turned sour as the
later preferred to remain a defiant spectator when IS laid siege on Syrian
Kurdish town of Kobani. In fact Ergodon was complacent when Kobani was
occupied. The apathy of Ergodon aggravated three decades long armed conflict
between the Turkish government and Kurdish forces that began in 1984 and
claimed 40,000 people so far. Kurds in Syria and Iraq joined hands with the
coalition of US fighting the IS. At the same time, US was contemplating on air
strikes against IS and looking for allies in the region, Turkey miffed by US
(for destabilizing the region by waging frivolous Iraq war) refrained from
joining the coalition forces. US then forged an alliance with the Iraqi Kurdish
Peshmerga and Syrian Kurdish fighters, YPG. The Syrian branch (PYD), a more
potent force operating in the region is an ally to both US and Russia. After
allying with the US forces the Syrian Kurds made enviable advances into the
territories of the IS turning Turkey’s worst nightmare into a reality. Turkey considered
Kurds as a big threat was wary of their rapid advances. Much to the chagrin of
Turkey, enduring retaliatory action of ISIS, Syrian Kurds eventually laid
foundation for carving out an autonomous territory from Syria called Kurdistan or Rojava.
On July 15th 2015, the ceasefire agreement between
the parties fell apart when PKK killed two Turkish police officers for failing
to prevent a suicide bomb attack carried by IS in the Turkish border town of
Suruc that killed 33 Kurds. Kurds were indeed helping Syrians in building the
neighborhood town of Kobani captured by Kurds backed by American airstrikes. IS
operatives rapidly gained ground in Turkey and carried out two suicide bomb
attacks on a peace rally in October 2015 killing over 100 civilians. This
pandemonium generated massive outrage among civil society forcing government to
launch relentless attacks against the IS sleeper cells and on the Kurdish
sanctuaries in Southeast Turkey. In retaliation the President Recep Tayyip
Ergodon ordered aerial bombings on Kurds in Northern parts of Iraq and on their
hideouts within Turkey. The situation in Turkey has become grim ever since the
breakdown of peace process.
By virtue of his implacable enmity with Bashar Al-Assad,
Ergodon agreed to permit US led-coalition bandwagon to use air Turkish air base,
Incirlik for targeted attacks on IS in 2015. Turkey, a long term ally of Syria
parted its ways when Assad refused act against Arab Spring uprising and favored
Iran’s advice. Turkey incidentally joined hands with US as both of them aspired
to obliterate Bashar’s regime and decimate IS. Domestic exigencies forced
Turkey to act strongly against IS across the Syrian border and on the Syrian
Kurdish PYD forces allied with US. But Turkey’s ties with US hit a rock bottom
with Turkey alleging that bomb attack in February was engineered by a close out
fit of PYD, an ally of US. PYD denied its role and lashed out at Turkey for
intensifying attacks targeting the Syrian kurds. Turkey appealing to the West
to stop providing military aid to PYD forces and accused them of favoring the
enemies of Turkey.
Interestingly, in a sudden change of preference US wanted to distance
itself from the brewing unrest in Turkey and decided to ally with Kurds who are
perceived to be secular, pro-west and democratic. With Kurds establishing
control over the north eastern Syrian cities-Jazira, Kobani and Afrin and
Russia announcing withdrawal of troops, partition of Syria, widely opposed by
Turkey and formation of Rojava seems
imminent. Kurds are all set to declare Rojava
as autonomous federal region. Kurds who are thus far scattered in four
different countries –Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey are a step closer to their
long term goal of independent homeland.
In November, Turkey unduly messed up the situation singularly
by shooting down a Russian place for alleged air space violation. Though the
situation didn’t escalate into a global disaster prompting countries to join
the sides, Russia imposed tough sanctions on Turkey inflicting a death blow on
its economy costing over $10 billion. Indeed, Turkey had picked up quarrels
with all its neighbors- Iraq for conniving with Kurdish separatists, parted
ways with Egypt and at daggers with Syria. In attempt to mitigate these
diplomatic losses that have driven Turkey into isolationism, Turkey had
deepened ties with Saudi Arabia.
Besides the internal political turmoil and external squabbles
with various militant outfits, Turkey is severely crippled by refugee crisis.
While Europe received overwhelming attention for the excruciating refugee
exodus flooding its gates, Turkey truly bore the brunt of Syrian monstrous war.
Of the 4.7 million people who fled Syria, Turkey provided shelter to 2.6
million Syrian refugees. So far, Turkey
has shelled out $8.5 billion to accommodate refugees infiltrating through the
565-mile long porous border. To contain refugee spill over, EU offered $3
billion and Turkey in return demanded visa-free travel to Turks in Schengen
area to Turkey and agreed to permit free entry of Turkish citizens within the
Schengen region. Turkey unconditionally embraced EU’s offer but its inability
to assess the travesty of unplugged borders plunged the economy into an abyss. With
Ergodon refusing to amend anti-terrorism laws, raising concerns over human
rights issue EU watered down Turkey’s aspirations of becoming a member.
Turkey is victim of its own misdeeds and miscalculations.
Turkey misconstrued IS as a perfect counterbalance to the rejuvenation of
Kurdish insurgency in Northern Syria and Ergodon’s bitter animosity towards
Assad drew him closer to IS. Though President Ergodan vehemently denied the
allegations of Opposition parties and Russia claiming that his government had
close links with IS, reports suggest that Turkey was initially soft towards IS.
Ankara strongly believed that no extremist power can even threaten the
Unitarian structure of its country. But spiraling law and order crisis forced
Ergodan to embrace conservative policies denigrating democratic credentials of
the regime. With every attack, the regime turned more despotic, authoritarian
and imposed tough sanctions on the media. These actions made opposition and
public more suspicious and society more polarized. Disproportionate numbers of
Turks began to join the IS. Indeed the gulf between IS and Turkey began to
widen when the later allowed US to use its Southern base for airstrikes. IS
even termed Turkey as an apostate regime
and vowed to avenge Istanbul. Turkey which was a citadel of secular Muslim
values is now slowly losing its sheen. Ergodon’s recent unsavory remarks of
childless women and cancellation of Pride March following bomb threats reflect
a similar levitation.
With economic crisis looming large over the country, this
week Turkey announced normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel and
reached out to Putin expressing sorrow over killing of two pilots. Turkey
severed ties with Israel in 2010 when the later raided former’s Mavi Marara
flotilla carrying supplies to Gaza strip under blockade resulting in killing of
nine Turks. Turkey was Israel’s only friend in the region. This latest politically
diplomatic move has an incipient economic emolument aimed at facilitating the supply
of natural gas from Israel to Turkey reducing its reliance on Russia’s Gazprom.
Tuesday night’s bomb attacks led to genesis of different theories floated by
various actors that have high stakes with Turkey. According to US, Ergodon’s
preference to crush the Kurdish forces rather than IS and his complicity has
deteriorated the situation in Turkey. Still others opine that normalization of
relations with Russia and Israel both anti-IS forces and augmenting border
patrols with NATO forces prompted the attack. Turkey has recently intensified
attacks on IS and arrested 36 suspected IS operatives and perhaps IS avenged
Turkey with this attack. Above all experts now strongly believe that Ergodon
should immediately resume peace talks with PKK before the situation becomes
dangerously out of bounds.
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