From Rift to Renewal: PM Carney’s Quiet Reset

Canada’s swift foreign policy recalibration amid Trump’s incessant tariff and sovereignty threats hasn’t escaped global attention. In his scintillating remarks on the ongoing powershift and dwindling multilateralism, at the World Economic Forum (WEF), Jan 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has outlined the role of Middle Powers like Canada to build a new order – “build a new order that encompasses our values, such as respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the various states”.  Earlier in Nov 2025, he elucidated Canada’s “Variable Geometry”- a concept in an opEd titled “The Americas in 2026” for The Economist. The concept implied pursuing “different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests”.  

Challenges

Assuming the charge as Premier at a time when Trump repeatedly threatened Canada to turn it into the 51^st state, Carney resisted the bullying and adopted a ‘pragmatic’ approach. Trump’s rhetoric on trade and sovereignty had jolted Canadian politics, which has been inherently libertarian. Ottawa’s left-leaning approach towards free speech, facile interpretations of the Khalistan ideology, and pandering to the minority vote bank had been at the heart of the diplomatic breakdown with New Delhi. Justin Trudeau’s reckless snapping of diplomatic ties with the largest democracy on “credible allegations” had been a travesty of statecraft seeped in liberalism. The relationship barely hung by a thread after countries expelled High Commissioners in October 2024 and reduced diplomatic presence to a minimal level.

Silent Stabilisation of Ties

In the wake of Trump’s ad hoc policies and constant threats, Carney, elected into power in March 2025, adopted a ‘pragmatic’ and ‘centrist’ foreign policy.  Hosting the 51^st G7 Summit, he swiftly engaged with World leaders. Signalling a thaw, Carney extended an invitation to Prime Minister Modi, an honour New Delhi coveted for over a decade. In June 2025, along the margins of the G7 Summit at Kananaskis, Alberta, leaders of India and Canada held forward-looking discussions “to take calibrated and constructive steps to restore stability in the relationship”.

 By September, High Commissioners of both countries returned. Rebuilding trust and expanding cooperation, NSAs held the first round of talks. In October 2025, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand, on her visit, renewed the roadmap for bilateral engagement. Injecting new momentum into the bilateral partnership, leaders met along the sidelines of the Johannesburg G20 Summit in November 2025. They reviewed the ties and launched negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to reach USD 50 billion by 2030. This engagement at the highest levels revived Ministerial and Official-level mechanisms. Subsequently, Foreign Office Consultations, security dialogues and sector-specific working groups were back on track.

Critically, the second round of NSA’s meeting in Feb 2026, ahead of PM Carney’s scheduled State visit, streamlined issues of major concern like law enforcement issues, extraditions, illegal drug flows, immigration fraud, immigration enforcement, cybersecurity, transnational criminal networks and set the stage for leadership talks. PM Carney arrived in Mumbai on Feb 28 for a four-day bilateral visit. After extensive business engagements and an investment push in Mumbai, the actual bilateral talks commenced in Delhi on Mar 2. The visit at the invitation of PM Modi is PM Carney’s first visit to India as the Prime Minister. The last Canadian bilateral visit to India was in 2018.

The Pivot

In a generational shift, PM Carney, leveraging “the Middle Power moment”, is expanding defence, security and economic ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region and Looking South. This steady shift is evident in PM Carney accelerating defence cooperation with the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. In November 2025, Canada signed the Status of Visiting Forces agreement with the Philippines. In January 2026, delicately balancing ties, Carney, on his Beijing visit, carved a “new strategic partnership” and inked a preliminary trade agreement with China to ease tariffs. In the same month, Canada sealed a defence collaboration Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement (ETTA) agreement with Japan. The two strategic rivals.

Expanding its Indo-Pacific strategy, Canada is finalising an FTA with Indonesia, elevating its partnership with Vietnam and ASEAN and seeking to increase military presence through Operation Horizon. As the resident power of Indo-Pacific with fourth largest economy, Canada now significantly understands the significance of building pragmatic ties with India. For long, the India-Canada relations have been a victim of misreading of contrasting narratives. However, under mounting Trumpian economic and diplomatic pressure, Canada has embraced strategic diversification and multi-alignment.

Ambitiously working to build the political trust, in the run-up to PM Carney’s visit, Federal officials indicated that India is no longer linked to violent criminal activities in Canada and moved to revoke the citizenship of Tahawwur Rana, accused in 26/11 for alleged misrepresentation in his citizenship application. By easing the tensions, Canada has set the stage for pragmatic cooperation.

The Reset

Having established diplomatic relations for 79 years, both countries structured a roadmap aligning with New Delhi’s Viksit Bharat and Ottawa’s Build Canada Strong Agenda. Addressing the Canada-India Growth Forum, PM Carney described his visit as “the beginning of a renewed Canada-India partnership”. In an interaction, recognising India’s rising global influence, PM Carney said, “I wouldn’t call India a ‘middle power’. I’m happy for Canada to be called a middle power. But India’s trajectory and ambition is totally different”. This strategic shift in the Canadian approach is firmly mirrored in his intent to decisively take forward the partnership from normalisation of ties to a structured expansion.

The diplomatic row over Nijjar has ruptured the partnership. To rebuild the strategic trust, leaders have structured a vision for the partnership anchored in the guiding principles of ‘Vasudaiva Kutumbakam’ (One World One Family One Future), providing a framework for political, economic, technological and strategic engagement.

Outcomes

The wide-ranging bilateral talks yielded several concrete outcomes. Notable among them are signing of Terms of Reference (ToR) for CEPA. India is Canada’s seventh-largest goods and services trading partner, with bilateral trade at USD 8.66 billion. Setting a target of USD 50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, the countries plan to conclude the trade agreement by the end of 2026.

 

Countries signed MoUs in Critical Minerals Cooperation, Renewable Energy, Global Research, Cultural cooperation and declaration of Intent to establish the Joint Pulse Protein Centre of Excellence at the National Institute of Food Technology, Entrepreneurship (NIFTE) at Kundli. Canada announced fully-funded internships for up to 300 eligible Indian students annually for three years.

Nearly 24 MoUs/partnerships have been signed between universities/institutions in areas such as Artificial Intelligence, healthcare, agriculture, and innovation. The scale and diversity of the commercial agreements signalled normalisation of ties.

Along the sidelines of the G20 Summit, Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada and India launched the Australia-Canada-India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) Partnership, leveraging the complementary strengths of Australia’s critical minerals, Canada’s AI expertise and India’s digital talent with an emphasis on green energy innovation, building resilient supply chains, including for critical minerals. Taking it forward, all three countries held meetings during the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, and now the Sides have inked an MoU on cooperation in Technology and Innovation.

Resetting ties, India and Canada reached a landmark agreement for the sale of $1.9 billion of uranium (10,000 tonnes) to India for its civil nuclear programme over 10 years. This will facilitate India’s clean energy transition and help reach the goal of 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047. Canada is second largest producer of Uranium. One of the foundational pillars of the India-Canada partnership has been nuclear collaboration on CANDU (Canada Deuterium Uranium Technology) reactor design. Soon, India developed its own Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) based on Canadian technology. India’s second nuclear reactor, CIRUS (Canada India Reactor Utility Service) and Rajasthan Atomic Power Station were built with Canadian assistance. Nuclear cooperation stalled post-1974 and 1998 tests. Sanctions were imposed on the sale of Uranium. The US-India nuclear deal of 2008 restored trust. In 2015, Canada agreed to sell Uranium. However, marred by misgivings and shifting relations, nuclear cooperation took a hit.

Renewing Relationship

Advancing India-Canada strategic energy partnership, the countries relaunched the Ministerial Energy Dialogue to finalise a joint plan of action to promote collaboration in clean energy, conventional energy and renewable energy. To broaden energy cooperation, Canada is joining the Global Biofuels Alliance and the International Solar Alliance. Given the Gulf crisis and concerns about the security of maritime trade routes, India is keen to source energy supplies through alternative routes. For stable energy security, India intends to buy LNG from Canada along with heavy oil. India is simultaneously working towards concluding a long-term LPG supply agreement with Canada.

Countries are elevating the 30-year space cooperation agreement between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), signed in 1996. India has supported Canada joining the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) as a Dialogue Partner.

Countries are relaunching and elevating the existing mechanisms, joint working groups to the ministerial level, to institutionalise cooperation and strengthen the relationship. To structure student mobility, an important domain of the bilateral ties, countries launched a new Canada-India Joint Talent and Innovation Strategy. 400,000 Indian students study in Canada, twice the number in the US and four times the number in the UK. Owing to Canada’s stricter immigration norms amid housing crises, PM Modi welcomed reputed Canadian Universities to set up their campuses in India. India has also proposed twinning degree programmes.

Trump’s ‘America First Agenda’, has critically weakened the institutionalised defence and security mechanisms. To align with NATO’s new targets, Canada is increasing defence expenditure and plans to spend about $500 billion over the next decade. Diversifying defence partnerships, Canada is now reviewing the F-35 acquisition, reversing the decision to purchase 88 of them. Carney is diversifying defence partnerships with Japan, South Korea, the EU and Indo-Pacific countries and identifying partners for defence collaboration. This can open up ample opportunities for Indian defence companies for co-development and coproduction. Given the convergence on Indo-Pacific, Canada, seeking to expand military cooperation with India, is institutionalising the India-Canada Defence Dialogue.  

The post-World War II institutional architecture is on the brink of collapse. New regional and global security arrangements are shaping up. As a middle power, positioning the partnership toward long-term expansion, Canada is seeking to widen cooperation. Committing to ironing out the structural differences stemming from the misinterpretation of liberal values, Canada is now valuing Indian partnership. PM Carney described the partnerships in the famous words of Swami Vivekananda- “arise, awake, and stop not till the goal is reached”.

Canada wants to work with India for its own reasons. India is cognisant of its conciliatory approach and appreciative of PM Carney’s attempt to anchor the relationship in “mutual respect, sovereignty, and democratic values”.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Reimagining Israeli Relations Through a Civilisational Lens

 PM Modi embarked on a two-day state visit to Israel on February 25^th at the invitation of Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, amid the US’s massive deployment of forces in the region.  The visit comes nine years after PM Modi set a precedent of becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel in 2017. This was followed by a four-day visit of PM Netanyahu to India in February 2018. The High-level back-to-back visits and sustained engagement have energised the relationships and fostered genuine respect between Indians and Israelis to a new high.

The marked upswing in ties was accompanied by an upbeat economic engagement, with bilateral trade reaching a new high of $10.77 billion (excluding defence) in 2022-23, fell to $3.62 billion in 2024-25 due to regional security issues and trade route disruptions. The dastardly October 7 Hamas attacks have fundamentally altered the strategic landscape of the Middle East, ending the illusion of stability. Countries which stood with Israel immediately after the attack started recalibrating their position. As the conflict in Gaza continued, Israel faced partial economic sanctions, an arms embargo and even diplomatic isolation. But Indian engagement with Israel hardly changed. On the contrary, it has intensified and stabilised. India’s long-term defence cooperation remained stable as it continued to import defence supplies from Israel.

As per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is the largest defence importer of Israeli defence equipment, accounting for 34% of sales from 2000-2024, worth $20.5 billion. By 2024, the tactical defence purchases transitioned into a partnership with Israeli companies setting up subsidiaries and joint ventures in India, in tune with the ‘Make in India’. By opening production units in India, Israel seeks to anchor New Delhi as its gateway to Asia and penetrate newer markets. Promoting this mutually beneficial cooperation, countries shifted toward co-production, co-development, and transfer of technology, which is the core of the long-term MoU defence cooperation signed in November 2025. It provided a policy framework for defence industrial cooperation, Science & Technology, AI and cybersecurity.  

As India seeks to create an ‘impregnable’ multilayered air defence to thwart Pakistani attacks, India’s appetite for Israeli systems and weapons has increased significantly. Israeli weapons- Harop loitering munitions, SkyStriker drones, Rampage air-to-surface missiles with their precision strikes- gave India an upper hand during Operation Sindoor. As per reports, India is seeking to make $8.6 billion in defence purchases from Israel in 2026. While defence has been the central pillar of the India-Israeli partnership, the strategic convergences are further bringing the nations closer. Both countries have been the worst victims of ideologically motivated terrorism.

Invited to address the special plenary of the Knesset, PM Modi, in a rare honour and a first ever for an Indian Prime Minister, opened his speech by offering deepest condolences of 1.4 billion Indians to the families shattered by the Oct 7 terror attack. Extending solidarity to Israel in the fight against terror, he said, “We feel your pain. We share your grief. India stands with Israel-firmly, with full conviction-in the moment and beyond”. Even as the opposition back in India continued to egg on PM Modi about the Israeli genocide, he reiterated, “No cause can justify the murder of civilians. Nothing can justify terrorism”, underscoring, “terror anywhere threatens peace everywhere”.

India adopts a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism and has been at the forefront in global fight against terrorism. India and Israel have a longstanding cooperation on terrorism. With reports of Hamas joining hands with Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and sharing the stage with Jaish-e- Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) at a public conference in PoJK, both countries might intensify intelligence sharing and counter terrorism cooperation. Indeed, the 10^th meeting of the India-Israel Joint Working Group on Counterterrorism concluded on Feb 24^th, ahead of PM Modi’s visit.

Endorsing India’s commitment to fight terror and its support to Israel, PM Netanyahu, in his welcome remarks, stated, “Immediately after the terrible massacre of October 7- you stood clearly, morally firm with Israel.. You did not flinch. You did not waver. You did not give excuses. You stood next to Israel. You stood by Israel. You stood for Israel”.  India recognised Israel in 1950 but established diplomatic relations only in 1992. During this period, India actively championed the Palestinian cause but continued to receive Israeli weapons and intelligence support during wars. For the past seven decades, India has been reluctant to come out in the open assertively.  It changed with 2017 PM Modi’s visit.

PM Modi’s present visit, coming in the wake of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations of February 6, has turned the region into a powder keg. Unwavered by the regional tensions and the looming threats of military strikes, as a testimony of steady friendship, PM Modi travelled to Israel. Amid geopolitical turbulence, uncertainty and conflict, displaying a rare strategic confidence, PM Modi preferred to ground the partnership in the age-old traditional links. Echoing this in the Knesset speech, redefining his outreach, PM Modi presented himself as a “representative of an ancient civilisation”. Invoking the ancient ties between the Indus Valley and Jordan Valley, insulating the strategic ties from the underlying complex geopolitical tensions, he fostered civilisational alignment.

By reimaging the ties through a civilisational lens, PM Modi completely de-hypenated Indian ties with Israel and Palestine. Political compulsions and shackles of minority appeasement severely constrained India-Israeli relations. Placing the Israeli ties on a civilisation pedestal, Modi scripted a new chapter. This delineation of India-Israeli ties from New Delhi’s commitment to the Palestinian issue will allow the standalone relations to flourish to their full potential. Shattering decades-long ambiguity and reticence through civilisational decoupling, Modi infused a new momentum into the bilateral partnership to thrive on the strength of shared interests and values.

At a time when the West is doubling down on Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, PM Modi redefined and consolidated ties with Israel on the grounds of civilisational linkages. To this end, PM Modi deliberately avoided any reference to brewing tensions in the region but extended full support to “durable peace and regional stability”. Supportive of the Gaza Peace Initiative, India, which is yet to take a call on joining the Gaza Peace Board, attended the inaugural meeting as an “Observer” ahead of PM Modi’s visit to Israel.

The delineation of India-Israeli relations from the Palestinian cause was in vogue since the Modi government’s first term. With separate and standalone visits, the Prime Minister reoriented India’s policy back in 2017. Firming up this policy, PM Modi is propping up the partnership on the strength of the centuries-old civilisational connection and realism. Afflicted by grandstanding and moral posturing, India faltered for decades. Shunning ambiguity and hesitation, India is now openly courting Israel, whose timely help in crucial times remained underappreciated and unacknowledged.

Exuding clarity and pragmatic dynamism, countries elevated the ties to “A Strategic and Special Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity through technology and innovation”, setting the stage for a multi-dimensional partnership. With ‘Hugplomacy’ in full display, abounding with friendly gestures and symbolisms, the leaders have restructured the partnership that long deserved a high place.

Symbolism is perceived as tokenism. However, protocol-defying gestures like a warm welcome by the host Prime Minister at the tarmac and send off fortify ties and buffer them from domestic push and pull factors. In recognition of the exceptional contribution and leadership of PM Modi to strengthen bilateral ties, he was conferred the Medal of the Knesset, making him the first ever recipient.

Among the listed 17 outcomes of the visit are MoUs on Cooperation in AI, education, agricultural research, geophysical exploration, development of National Maritime Heritage Complex (NMHC) at Lothal, fisheries and aquaculture, commercial arbitration, financial cooperation and implementation of UPI. Countries signed a Letter of Intent on the establishment of the Indo-Israel Cyber Centre of Excellence in India and exchanged declaration of Intent in the field of Horizon scanning.

India and Israel have been knowledge-driven economies with complementary strengths. Israel is a global powerhouse of technology and innovation. India serves is hub of talent, manufacturing excellence and entrepreneurial energy. Through a synergistic integration, both nations can prosper and succeed. For a futuristic partnership defined by creativity, technology and talent, countries have affirmed collaboration in AI, cybersecurity, semiconductors, quantum computing, biotechnology, agriculture and water management, defence platforms, and space exploration.

Elevating the Joint Commission on Science and Technology to the Ministerial level, countries welcomed India–Israel Financial Dialogue and an initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies led by the NSAs (National Security Advisors). Having signed the Bilateral Investment Treaty in September 2025, countries signed Terms of Reference (ToR) to commence negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on February 24^th. Deepening the people-to-people connection, an additional 50,000 Indian workers would join Israeli sectors within the next five years.

Notorious as a conflict-ridden region, the Middle East is pivotal for global trade, energy security, maritime security and connectivity. Indian interests are closely intertwined with the region in terms of remittances and secured energy flows. Navigating the layered strategic alignments of the region is absolutely essential for India’s economic growth.

The Middle East, which is the centrepiece of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), now lies at the intersection of India, Israel, the UAE, the US (I2U2), and Mediterranean outreach. In his Knesset address, PM Netanyahu outlined a geopolitical vision to involve India in the “Iron Alliance” of like-minded countries. The envisioned broader “Hexagon Alliance”, a potential axis against extremism, will emerge as an interconnected corridor of trade, technology and maritime security. Putatively comprising India, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, the UAE and Morocco, this informal security network can be a potential alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Tipped to become the third-largest economy by 2030, India is ramping up engagement with diverse partners and exploring a multi-layered engagement with Middle East nations and beyond. Reimaging the ties through the civilisational lens and anchoring in shared historical and ideological affinities, PM Modi adeptly preserved Israeli ties from being consumed by geopolitical and domestic pressures. India has emerged as a new anchor for Israel in this geopolitical landscape. PM Modi’s visit has laid a framework for a forward-looking partnership between two ancient civilisations and modern nations- one that advances “national interests while contributing to global stability and prosperity”.

@ Copyrights reserved.

The Gulf’s New Gravity: MBZ’s Pivot to India

 As geopolitical turbulence and a fluid world order continue to threaten the rules-based order, the deepening strategic partnership between India and the UAE has piqued analysts' interest. The extremely short, last-minute visit by UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, widely known as MBZ, has drawn attention to the brewing rivalry among the Arab states. Oftentimes, whirlwind visits without prior official buzz hint at an unstated strategic urgency.

Every minutia of this extremely short visit signalled a strategic clarity. Accompanied by a high-powered delegation comprising members of the Royal families of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, several ministers and officials, MBZ arrived in India. As a special gesture, PM Modi received the President at the airport, and both leaders travelled together to 7 Lok Kalyan Marg for extensive restricted talks on bilateral, regional and global issues. Seemingly unplanned, the expansive list of outcomes of the three-hour visit showcased the great deal of preparation by both countries in evolving a framework of cooperative partnership that has blended into synergism.

MBZ is seeking to strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with India at a time when the fissures between the two Arab nations-UAE and Saudi Arabia, are widening. United in their pursuits to diversify their oil-dependent economies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both US allies, have strongly opposed the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. They even jointly spearheaded the collective boycott of Qatar for its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood. Indeed, MBZ handled the American scrutiny against Saudi over the reports of MBS's involvement in Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination.

Though committed to the Palestinian cause, motivated by strategic opportunities and regional interests, during Trump’s first regime, the UAE normalised diplomatic ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords in 2020. But around the same time, Saudi Arabia, donning the mantle of the Islamic leadership as the custodian of Mecca and Medina, hesitated to establish ties with Israel. This reluctance has turned into a formal rejection of ties with Israel until the creation of an independent Palestinian state, post 10/7 Hamas terror attack. In the recent past, hardening its stance, Riyadh has adopted an adversarial tone towards Israel.

Amid rising Israel-Iran rivalry, Washington’s retrenchment and Trump’s transactionalism have drastically altered the regional security architecture. The uncertainty over security guarantees to the traditional allies and the eroding trust have forced countries to diversify their security portfolio. Given American unreliability, days after Israel’s attack on the Hamas negotiating team in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA). Modelled along the lines of NATO’s Article 5, where any aggression against one country is treated as an attack on both, the countries solidified longstanding strategic ties into a defence framework. Though the agreement had no explicit mention of nuclear cooperation and Pakistan hasn’t formally offered nuclear deterrence, Saudi Arabia has clarified, “this is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means”, implying that a nuclear shield would be extended to Riyadh.

Amid serious concerns about America’s commitment to NATO under Trump, Turkey, a NATO member with the second-largest military, has entered into talks with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for a defence alliance.  Abetting the speculations of a plausible “Islamic NATO”, Pakistan signalled potential expansion of the defence partnership, citing ‘Zionist threat’ and volatility in South Asia. Operation Sindoor has exposed the deepening military cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey. A veritable Islamic axis is emerging between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, at a time when two parallel currents, those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are steadily diverging.

Since the intervening years of forging diplomatic ties with Israel, the bilateral relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia ruptured, with both countries finding themselves on opposite sides. In a bid to counter political Islam and secure the maritime routes, the UAE began extending support to the dissent factions in Yemen, Sudan and Somalia, all bordering Saudi Arabia and lying along the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Initially, coalition partners, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, militarily intervened to stall the takeover of Yemen by Houthi rebels in 2015 and helped restore the internationally recognised government of President Mansour Hadi. But both countries soon parted ways over the UAE's perception of the dominant party of the Yemeni government Islah Party’s close affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood. The UAE designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation in 2014.

Soon UAE began training Yemeni fighters in the southern territories, boosting their secessionist struggle. Post 2019, the UAE diverted its military support to the Southern Territorial Council (STC), a group that existed before its unification with the north. Pursuing the vision of expanding maritime footprint to position itself as a global commercial hub, the UAE has been securing ports, constructing airstrips and logistical infrastructure across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. UAE backed the STC to increase its maritime presence in Southern Yemen, especially in al-Mahra, which has direct access to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia wanted to build an oil pipeline from its eastern province through al-Mahra to reduce dependence on the Straits of Hormuz chokepoint.

STC’s takeover of al-Mahra and Hadramawt has intensified the Saudi-Emirati rift as both contested for influence over maritime routes across the Red Sea. Dominating the Red Sea has been an integral part of Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030. While the UAE is backing armed proxies, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Somalia, to securitise ports and its economic investments in this crucial region, Saudi Arabia is resorting to financial leverage and coalition-building.   

Conflict between Arab states spilled into the open with Saudi airstrikes on Mukkalla seaport targeting the transfer of weapons from the UAE to STC. Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of arming the STC, reportedly carrying out military operations along its Southern border. Riyadh termed it a national security threat and a ‘red line’. With immediate effect, Saudi-allied Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) issued a decree suspending the joint defence agreement with the UAE and demanded the withdrawal of forces within 24 hours. Indeed, Riyadh's hard stance against the UAE and strikes were prompted by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland on December 26. While the Arab League strongly condemned this move, the UAE didn’t issue any condemnation.

UAE’s silence implied a tacit alignment with Israel. Arab states perceived the recognition of proxy forces or parallel entities as a threat to their sovereignty, and diplomatic recognition of such forces could embolden secessionists. The ongoing churn in the Middle East and the contest for maritime influence eventually shaped the rise of two axes- steered by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Speculations of Turkey joining the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan alliance might invariably turn it into an ideological Islamic axis. Aligning with Saudi Arabia against the UAE, Egypt, Sudan and Somalia are now coalescing with this ideological axis. On the otherhand, the UAE is building a coalition driven by strategic interests and common threats.

Abrahamic Accords of 2020 heralded a new shift in the UAE’s policy away from conflict towards diversification, economic and security integration. In 2021, the UAE established a multi-dimensional trilateral with Greece in Cyprus. Around the same period, the UAE joined I2U2, also known as Western Quad, a strategic partnership between India, Israel and the US. This engagement was further strengthened under the aegis of IMEC (India Middle East European Economic Cooperation), launched in 2023. UAE’s pragmatic restructuring of strategic partnerships has set it apart from its Arab-Islamic peer nations.

While news of SMDA has been buzzing, Israel, Cyprus and Greece have signed a trilateral military cooperation plan on Dec 28, 2025, to counter expanding Turkey’s footprint in the Mediterranean region. In response, Turkey moved to join SMDA. Reportedly, India has received a formal invitation to join the 3+1 format, triggering the rise of a ‘Mediterranean Quad’. MBZ’s India visit is an attempt to bolster its strategic autonomy in the face of global uncertainty and regional turbulences.

The 13^th High-Level Task Force on Investments meeting in September 2025, the 16^th India-UAE Joint Commission, and the 5^th Strategic Dialogue engagement in December 2025 indeed laid the ground for the visit. ‘Trumpnomics’ tore apart the fragile global economic architecture. Developing nations, which are facing the rough end of the stick, are strategically recalibrating their trade and economic ties to mitigate the effect. As a full-term member of BRICS, the UAE is swiftly diversifying its foreign ties and aligning with dedollarisation by prioritising trade in national currencies. Being economically consequential, strategically autonomous and non-intrusive, India has emerged as an epitome of multipolarity.  Direct talks between the leaders is attempt to infuse a new level of confidence with both countries seeking to consolidate multi-faceted cooperation. 

Over the past decade, PM Modi has invested diplomatic capital to reshape and promote ties with the Gulf region, especially Emiratis. Along with strengthening the legendary bilateral and security pillars with the signing of a Letter of Intent (LoI) for Strategic Defence Partnership, countries are seeking to partner in defence innovation, defence industrial cooperation, and training between special forces in interoperability, cyberspace, counter terrorism. Countries registered $100 billion in bilateral trade through the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2022. Buoyed by the progress, leaders set a new trade target of $200 billion by 2032. The UAE is currently India’s third-largest trade partner and seventh-largest investment partner with a cumulative FDI of $22.84 billion. Strengthening the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) signed in 2024, the UAE is seeking to partner in the development of the Special Investment Region in Dholera, which includes an international airport, a pilot training centre, a Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO) facility, a green field port, an urban township, rail connectivity and energy infrastructure.

As a testimony to growing trust and keenness to collaborate on AI and emerging technologies, countries are set to explore an interesting concept of Digital Embassy- protecting the most critical data of national and strategic importance in another territory to safeguard it from potential cyberattacks under mutually recognised sovereignty agreements. To secure India’s energy front, HPCL and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Gas (ADNOC) signed a 10-year agreement for the supply of 0.5 million tonnes of LNG starting in 2028. Boosting financial and logistics cooperation, UAE companies- DP World and First Abu Dhabi Bank will now open offices in GIFT City. For settlement of trade in national currencies and reducing reliance on the US dollar, India and the UAE are operationalising the Local Currency Settlement System (LCSS), interlinking payment platforms and through UPI and Jaywan Card.

Countries signed an MoU on food security, space cooperation, and polar expeditions, and firmed up educational linkages by building offshore campuses and integrating Digital Locker and UAE platforms for seamless authentication of Indian degrees. Leaders expressed keen interest in exploring opportunities for nuclear cooperation under the Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India (SHANTI) bill, including deployment of large nuclear reactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMR). The UAE has offered to provide historical artefacts for the National Maritime Heritage Complex at Lothal and establish India House in Abu Dhabi.

Geopolitical turbulence is not an understatement in contemporary times, but an inexorable reality. No region is insulated from this geopolitical churn. Instead of waiting for a crisis to unfold and then respond, in the face of shifting power dynamics, growing uncertainties, and the unreliability of external superpower security guarantees, MBZ made a quick visit to India for direct interaction to formalise a framework for long-term cooperation. Amid the geopolitical churn, India has emerged as an anchor of stability. Seeking stability, prioritising national interests, MBZ sought to personally invoke underlying mutual trust and respect to realign and reorient the partnership to tide through the geopolitical flux.

MBZ’s visit reinforces India’s steady rise as a reliable strategic partner of the Middle East, specifically the UAE. Pursuing an independent foreign policy shaped by multilateralism and strategic autonomy, the UAE has naturally drifted towards New Delhi, which is uncompromisingly safeguarding its strategic autonomy amid the headwinds of global uncertainties.

@ Copyrights reserved.

India-Russia Strategic Convergence: Pillar of Multipolarity

President Putin’s visit to India for the 23^rd annual summit, Dec 4-5, after a four-year gap, has expectedly drawn global attention. West’s attempts to isolate Putin faced a setback after PM Modi reneged on the diplomatic protocol and received him on the tarmac. Affirming the longstanding friendship, both leaders rode back together to PM Modi’s residence for a private dinner and candid exchange of views on bilateral, regional and global issues.

India’s friendship with Russia dates back to the nearly eight decades old diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union. Russia upheld the mantle of friendship after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Consolidating the ties, countries elevated their relationship to “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ in 2010 and institutionalised it through annual summits, a unique arrangement, an exclusive preserve for trusted friends.

Styled on the Soviet Union’s Communist approach, the India-Russia bilateral cooperation is guided by the framework of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC), comprising two divisions- IRIGC-TEC (Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation) and IRIGC-M&MTC (Military & Military Technical Cooperation). By and large, the partnership was largely steered by an uncharacteristically large number of intergovernmental implementation agencies and working groups. Despite longstanding relations, the partnership was largely government-driven with a very limited business-to-business engagement.

Moscow’s worldview of India, dominated and shaped by the Soviet era, has largely limited its cooperation to the core areas of yesteryears like defence and nuclear energy. Extensively engaging with the European countries and China for energy exports and consumer goods till 2022, Russia’s economic engagement was largely Eurocentric. Post-Crimean annexation and sanctions, Russia made a strategic pivot to China, and this consistently deepened after the West’s punitive actions. Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT payment and secondary sanctions have further accelerated Russia’s pivot to the East, with China eventually emerging as Russia’s largest trade partner.

Spanning two continents-Europe and Asia—Russia has traditionally leaned towards Europe. In its efforts to align and modernise, Russian institutions are rooted in European traditions. Although a large part of Russia is geographically in Asia, Russia sought comfort in its European identity. Indeed, after the Cold War until the early 2000s, Moscow made repeated attempts to join NATO. However, all its proposals were rejected. Geographically, a Eurasian power, Russia prioritised European ties over Asian influences.

The Ukraine conflict of 2022 has thus been a turning point for Russia's geopolitics. Isolated, sanctioned and ostracised from global systems, Russia was forced to recalibrate its policy. It is no secret that Mackinder’s Heartland theory of global dominance has been at the root of the West’s relentless efforts to draw Ukraine into its ambit. With access to Black Sea that connects West Asia to Europe and Russia, Ukraine is geographically pivotal. With vast mineral resources and a strategic position, any power controlling this heartland can project dominance to the vastly interconnected world. West’s control of Ukraine is Russia’s strategic vulnerability. To retain dominance over Eurasia, the West has invested heavily in Ukraine.

Though Halford John Mackinder’s theory is still debated, through impressive territorial gains in Ukraine, Russia is inching closer to gaining access to the Black Sea and the huge network of pipelines running through the region. Along with steady gains in Eurasia, reinventing its Asian identity, Russia is now geopolitically aligning with major Asian countries and giants. Pursuing economic diversification, Moscow has intensified trade ties with Asia and African countries. Eurasia holds the key to global dominance, and implicitly so, Russia’s strategic realignment has restructured the contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Putin’s visit to India came a day after he “threatened Europe with a war, if it wants one”. Catalysed by European intransigence to the Ukrainian peace plan and castigated for importing Russian energy, Moscow and New Delhi have found themselves in a rare strategic congruity where deepening ties could be a mutually win-win. Shedding the legacy baggage of the Soviet era, Russia is now seeking economic opportunities in India’s expanding markets. As the fourth-largest economy with immense development potential, India offers a platform for reimagining bilateral relations.

Since the Ukraine conflict, the West has targeted India for not taking sides, condemning Russia and sourcing oil imports from Moscow. Earlier in August, Trump slapped an additional 25% tariff on India for importing Russian imports in addition to the baseline reciprocal 25% taking the overall tariffs to 50% as a punishment. Resisting economic pressure, India kept its ties with Russia intact. Lately, Washington has pursued hard bargains with New Delhi by linking trade negotiations to the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets and pressing for unfettered market access to US agricultural and dairy products in India. By withholding access to critical source codes and weapons integration systems, Washington seeks to leverage defence technology to pin down India into strategic dependence.

Rebuffing the offer and refusing to cave in, India explicitly expressed its readiness to expand the gamut of cooperation with Russia. Instructively, acknowledging India’s rising international stature, in a bid to economically diversify and derisk from China, during the Summit meeting, PM Modi and President Putin unveiled, “Time Tested, Progressive Partnership anchored in trust and mutual respect for 2030”. Setting an ambitious target of $100 billion bilateral target, countries broadened the partnership to balance the skewed trade and bolstered people-to-people cooperation, a quintessential foundation to rejuvenate cultural, political and economic connections between the countries.

India-Russia partnership was anchored in defence cooperation, which included co-production, co-development and technology transfer. Aligning these aspects with “Make in India” countries have now agreed to manufacture the spares for Russian defence procurements in India. Apart from fast-tracking negotiations on FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), leaders have addressed the India-Russia Business Forum to promote private investments, cooperation in startups and unveiled Programme 2030 to foster cooperation in AI, innovation, critical and emerging technologies. With a fundamental reorientation of economic conversations, leaders discussed the use of national currencies for bilateral trade and interoperability of financial systems.

The panoply of agreements and announcements on Putin’s State visit is a testament to an ambitious vision plan for India-Russia's longstanding partnership. Notable MoUs signed included - Migration and Mobility agreement (on temporary labour activity & combating irregular migration), health care, medical education and science, food safety compliances, cooperation in shipping, ports, joint mineral exploration, border postal cooperation, scientific and academic collaboration, training students and professionals for academic activity, training specialists for ships operating in Polar waters and media cooperation. Countries also signed an MoU on a joint venture in Urea manufacturing in Russia. India has announced a 30-day e-tourist visa on a gratis basis to Russian nationals on a reciprocal basis.

With no mention of high-profile defence deals in the Joint Statement, critics labelled Putin’s visit as high on theatrics and poor on substance. However, this underlines a strategic shift in military partnership, now reorienting toward joint research and development, co-development, and co-production of advanced defence technologies. Russia's Su-57 offer is on the table, with Moscow proposing to transfer technology, 60% licensed local production and integration with indigenous sensors and missiles and upgradation of the Su-30 MKI fleet. Besides promising discounted oil supply, countries are now focused on strengthening infrastructure connecting the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai–Vladivostok (Eastern Maritime) Corridor, and the Northern Sea Route.

Ahead of Putin’s visit, the Duma has ratified the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support (RELOS) pact with India and coinciding with Putin’s visit, Rosatom has announced the delivery of the first batch of nuclear fuel for the third reactor at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant. Aligning with India’s goal of 100 GW nuclear power by 2047, Russia offered to build a second nuclear plant and pledged small modular reactors.

For decades, independent India failed to leverage its strategic location and its significant maritime power. Asserting its maritime power, India signed foundational logistics agreements with the US. India has similar pacts with Japan, Singapore, France, Australia and South Korea. With the formalisation of RELOS, India can counterbalance the Western defence integration and dilute Russia’s dependence on China. RELOS serves the twin purposes of opening doors to the warm water ports for Russia and grants the Indian Navy access to the Russian Arctic (Murmansk) and Far East ports (Vladivostok). 

While India can become a stakeholder in the emerging Arctic trade routes, mineral explorations and counter the rising Chinese footprint in the Polar, Russian access to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) will alter the Indo-Pacific balance. RELOS echoes with India's goal of setting a permanent manned mission in the Arctic region.

Besides enhancing the institutional interoperability through joint manoeuvres and mutual use of the military facilities for refuelling, supplies and maintenance, it will provide berthing facilities for troops, warships and aircraft. The pact allows the stationing of five warships, 10 aircraft and 3000 troops in the territory of the partner country. The logistics agreements with the US and Russia epitomise India's ‘strategic autonomy’ and its strategic capitalisation of geographical location.

Steadily bolstering defence, energy, military linkages, and now repurposing the partnership with a long-term view on economic engagement, India has broadened the expanse of cooperation with Russia. Diligently exploring the economic opportunities, India and Russia are reshaping their partnerships to avoid being coerced by both the US and China. Investments and economic cooperation with India can help Russia break free from the Chinese clasp. A deepening Russia partnership and a steady flow of discounted crude lend economic stability and immunity from inflationary pressures for India. A steady India-Russia defence upgrade through joint production, besides rattling the adversaries, will help India assert its sovereignty over the weapons.  India can no longer be pressurised to surrender its freedom for advanced defence technologies.

The symbolism of the recently concluded India-Russia summit is a political message to the West. Ramping up trade engagements, Indian engineering, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and electronics are now entering Russia. Leaders have laid a foundation for a “balanced, mutually beneficial, sustainable and long-term partnership” amid the complex and uncertain geopolitical situation. Instead of buckling under pressure, India has doubled down on its ties with Russia.

Trump’s ruthless rundown of Indian interests amid its trade concessions and conciliations to China, despite Beijing’s Russian energy imports, hasn’t gone down well with India. Trump’s attempts to draw India into its geo-strategic games- weaning it away from Russia while making overtures to Pakistan are now falling apart.

India has always valued its relations with the US and continues to do so. However, Washington’s blatant coercion, breaking through the seams of the Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, threatens to dangerously damage the trust factor.

India can no longer be instructed to but negotiated with to have a mutually beneficial trade agreement. Days after Putin’s visit, a US trade delegation arrived in India for talks, and Quad officials met twice in a week to hold talks on counter terrorism and humanitarian aid. However, being a compulsive deal maker, Trump is attempting to arm-twist India with fresh tariffs on Indian rice.

China weaponises rare earths while India is inexorably wielding its strategic autonomy to secure food, fuel and fertiliser security. Steering clear of alliances, navigating its own course through strategic diversification and reviving old trusted relationships, India is emerging as a responsible power. India is not a vassal state to be dictated to, but a leader capable of charting through muddled waters towards the mission of Viksit Bharat 2047. Constantly drawing its force and energy from the centuries of resilience as a civilisational state, India is uncompromisingly advancing its national interests.

India seeks partnerships based on respect. Washington’s imperialistic and hierarchical partnerships are accelerating a global reconfiguration and promoting the emergence of a multipolar world order.

 

@ Copyrights reserved.

But, Terrorism has no Religion..

Seeped in the bog of political correctness, societies across the world have willingly failed to call the bluff of an ideology that always wore a ‘victimhood’ guise. An ideology that caused the death of millions and the mass exodus of survivors. Instead of tackling the root cause, academics invented theories to shift the blame onto establishments and governments worldwide. A network strongly promoting these narratives eventually began to dominate the global discourse. The same template of exonerating the perpetrators of terrorism is being rolled out globally. In the process, anyone calling a spade a spade is labelled an ‘Islamophobe’.

After the UN has unanimously passed a resolution to combat Islamophobia and designated March 15 as International Day to Combat Islamophobia, plain speak on ideology-inspired terrorism has become anathema. Forget plain speak, pandering to this ideology has become an integral part of the political agenda. Political parties across the globe are now openly indulging in cultivating dedicated vote banks. At a time when Arab countries are strictly cleansing their societies of this radical ideology, syncretic and open societies have turned into fertile grounds for fanatical strains of this ideology. The spread and this pan-Islamic corporation can no longer be ignored as a fabrication or motivated propaganda.

The 10/11 Red Fort bomb blast that ripped the heart of the national capital has confirmed the worst fear of security analysts who have been warning of a pan-Islamic jihadi network. The blast, which killed 15 and left several injured, has shocked the entire nation. Investigation reports, besides strengthening the disillusionment about the “Ganga-Jamuni tahzeeb’ have exposed the phenomenon of “White Collar terrorism”. The rude awakening regarding the perpetrators of the terrorism being a ‘module of doctors’ has unsettled the Indian society that believes in “Vaidyo Narayano Hari” (the physician is Narayana himself). A detailed probe unearthed the network of ‘doctors of death’ operating from a Medical University, with dubious credentials and funding, has revealed links to a global-Islamic jihadi network.

The revelations outrightly demolished the deprivation, poverty, unemployment and marginalisation theories that justified terrorism. The trend of ‘white collar terrorism’ is not new. The suicide brigades of Al-Qaeda and ISIS were led by highly educated individuals hailing from upper-middle-class backgrounds. Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri were engineers, Tahawwur Hussein Rana, key conspirator of 26/11, is a doctor, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) Chief Masood Azhar is a post-graduate. Sri Lanka Easter blast accused hailed from wealthy families. Educated individuals from well-to-do families are getting attracted to this radical ideology.

It is not for the first time that Universities have emerged as a front for terrorism. At the height of the Kashmir insurgency, the University of Kashmir served as an incubator for anti-India doctrines. The vilest extremist Islam is reaching young minds via an inconceivable route of Universities. The recent student protests in Bangladesh, among other organisations, were triggered by Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) highly active on University campuses. The proscribed organisation, HuT, determined to establish a Caliphate in the region, recruits students and conducts Islamic classes in campuses. In fact, the students who led the march in Bangladesh carrying ISIS flags were inspired by HuT.

The Al-Falah University in Haryana is emerging as the melting pot of all the terror links in the blast case, with a needle of suspicion pointing to doctor degree holders from Bangladesh and Pakistan. So far, all major arrests made in the case had a direct or indirect link with the University. Among the arrests, Dr Shaheen Saeed, nicknamed ‘Madam Surgeon’ was tasked with setting up the women’s wing of JeM, Jamaat-ul-Mominaat, headed by JeM Masood Azhar’s sister, Sadia Azhar, whose husband, Yusuf Azhar, was the master mind of the 1998 Kandahar hijacking. Yusuf was killed in Operation Sindoor. Other doctors taken into police custody were found to be working for JeM and Ansar-Ghazwat-ul-Hind.

Pakistan’s role in the Red Fort blast is further confirmed by the former Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) Prime Minister, Chaudhary Anwar-ul-Haq’s statement in the PoK assembly. Indeed, JeM launched a fundraising drive seeking Rs 6400 to carry out fidayeen attacks. Along with Pakistan’s role, the Doctors module spanning J&K, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh was found to be in touch with a Turkey-based handle ‘Ukasha’ that planned multiple blasts across India. Recovery of multiple passports from Dr Shaheen with different addresses and guardian names and visits to Pakistan, Turkey, Thailand and Saudi Arabia and her brother’s two-year stay in the Maldives, a country with the highest rates of foreign terrorist fighters, is heightening the suspicions of involvement of a global Islamic network. The Maldives is an important link in the pan-Islamic jihadi network.

Besides, investigations have unravelled that members of the Doctors Module-Dr Muzzamil, Umar (Red Fort Blast perpetrator), and Shaheen have travelled to Turkey in March 2002, where they met ISI’s Turkey asset Abu Ukasha, a key member of JeM. It has been found out that the module has been planning to launch attacks in major Indian cities since 2021 on Dec 6^th.  The systematic radicalisation process of these doctors that began in 2010 led to their eventual induction into JeM in 2015. The preparation for the large-scale attacks began in 2022 with the procurement of the explosives, recruitment and reconnaissance. For plausible deniability, Pakistan has adopted the “third country route”, in this case, Turkey and Gulf countries, for money transfers and encrypted communication. Named as D-6 Mission, the goal was to carry out a series on December 6 to avenge the Babri Masjid demolition.

Markedly restructuring its statecraft of exporting cross-border terrorism, Pakistan is now targeting Indian Muslims as soft targets for radicalisation. From the early 2000s, Muslims in J&K went to Pakistan to join medical colleges in Abbotabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Bahawalpur and Faisalabad through their separatist connections. Pakistan-based organisations with alleged terrorist links supported their education. After India’s increased surveillance on the Pakistan-educated MBBS doctors, students started going to Medical Colleges in Dhaka, Shylet, Chittagong and Rajshahi, where admissions were easy and fees were less. Bangladesh wasn’t on the security radar then. The arrest of doctors has strengthened the fears of terrorist outfits exploring the academic route to build a strong network of radicalised overground workers and terrorism enablers.

In the wake of ‘white collar terrorism’ government is probing doctors who have obtained degrees from Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and the UAE. It would be prudent for the Indian government to expand the probe to academics with Turkish connections. Turkey under Erdogan has rapidly shifted to neo-Ottoman Islamisation. The AKP party of Erdogan had strongly supported the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan has offered refuge to academics and students affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey who fled Egypt post-2013 coup. Hizbut ut Tahrir, though banned in Turkey in 2018, continues to run private study circles in the University campuses.

Aligning more closely with Pakistan after the abrogation of Article 370 and CAA, Pakistan-Turkey military and diplomatic partnership continued to grow. With its current anti-India avatar, Turkey has become a safe haven for Indian dissents. To recall, in 2020, Shah Faesal, in his bid to challenge the Indian government’s move on Article 370 at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Hague, wanted to flee Turkey. (In 2022, he renounced his political activism and rejoined the government).

Unleashing soft Islam, with Pakistan as its nodal agency in the region, Turkey is building a coalition of Muslim countries. With the radicalised Islamist groups having their sway over the interim regime after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh is closely following the footsteps of Islamabad. With Yunus at the helm, the strategic alliance between Pakistan’s ISI, Bangladesh’s Jamaat and Turkish intelligence-NGO organisations has deepened. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation has allegedly renovated the office of Jamaat. Emboldened by Turkish support, Bangladesh’s Jamaat is reviving the idea of Mughalistan.

Unlike Pakistan’s covert approach of pushing radicalism through clerics and Imams, through scholarships, youth conferences, cultural engagements and digital outreaches, Turkey is reaching out to Indian Muslims. Through the academic route, Turkey is solidifying “Muslim Solidarity”. The organisations which are at the forefront of such soft-radicalisation are think-tank South Asia Strategic Research Centre (GASAM), TURGEV, a charitable foundation set up by the Erdogan Foundation, Turkish Youth Foundation (TUGVA) and KADEM (Women and Democracy Association) and IHH (Humanitarian Relief Foundation). IHH has strong links with the banned organisations PFI and SIMI.

In 2005, to create “Ummah consciousness” Erdogan regime supported the creation of the Istanbul-based Union of NGOs of the Islamic World (UNIW). Spread across 65 countries with 340 organisations. Its satellite organisations- Helping Hand for Relief and Development (HHRD) has close ties with Falah-i-Insaniyat, the charitable arm of LeT and Kashmir Action Council (KAC) has been the force in internationalising the J&K issue. Motivated by a religious zeal and fanatical determination to establish an Islamic Caliphate, the global Islamic network is adopting both overt and covert approaches to destabilise India. While the NGOs take care of the narrative aspect and the soft jihad, the intelligence agencies are providing the logistics to carry out terror attacks.

Operation Sindoor exposed the Islamic coalition of Pakistan-Turkey- Azerbaijan, activating both its military channels and ideological ecosystem that waged a systematic narrative war. The Red Fort blast has precisely exposed both fronts of this jihadi alliance. After the blast, the 0.5 domestic front swung into action. First, they accused the government of soft pedalling on terrorism (undoubtedly, there have been glaring security lapses). Then, shifting gears, the apologists sanitised terrorism to the extent of justifying Umar’s video on suicide attacks as a martyrdom operation, known in Islam.

Ongoing investigations have revealed shocking details of this intricate jihadi network led by the doctors. Perennially playing the victim card, the over 200 million-strong minority community, who enjoy special constitutional privileges, relentlessly accuses the Indian establishment of marginalisation. Entitlements should always be accompanied by moral duties.

By justifying the acts of terrorism as being ordained on the followers of the faith by the book and its teachings to achieve the goal of establishing a Caliphate, the entire community is condoning the heinous acts against humanity. The community, instead of saying “not in my name,” is crying foul when confronted with irrefutable evidence as “Islamophobia”. For centuries, the followers of the faith have mercilessly spilt blood and wiped out civilisations to establish Dar-al-Islam (Abode of Islam). It is time to reject the disingenuous apology of the followers of the ideology that justifies all acts of violence as ‘divine right’.

@ Copyrights reserved.

The Strategic Reality of Trump’s G2 Reset

 With his trademark social post, “The G2 will be convening shortly”, Trump drew global attention to the anticipated trade talks between the US and China at Busan in South Korea. Beijing long sought parity with Washington. By calling the meeting ‘G2’, Trump has fulfilled the CCP’s long-cherished Chinese Dream. By placing China in the same league, Trump lent legitimacy to China’s superpower ambitions. The acknowledgement of duopoly by Trump is an emphatic victory for Xi, struggling with economic slowdown, high unemployment crises, deflationary pressures and oversupply.

The recently concluded fourth plenum of the CCP, held ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, silently set the strategic tone. Though the focus remained on domestic affairs, with many simply dismissing the plenum communiques as political propaganda, they often chart China’s long-term plans.  For instance, prior to the 13^th five-year plan in 2015, the CCP plenum released a decade-long industrial blueprint for development that culminated in the launch of ‘Make in China 2025’ in response to Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy. A decade hence, the Make in China has been extremely effective in thwarting Washington’s containment as Beijing achieved technological dominance in emerging technologies.

Evolving the framework for the 15^th five-year plan, the October plenum doubled down on achieving ‘self-sufficiency’ in ‘advanced manufacturing’. Taking note of the “complex and severe” international environment, the plenum has preferred a dialogue with the US rather than “decoupling and confrontation” with the underlying motive being “within crises lie opportunities, and crises can be transformed into opportunities”.

Days after the plenum, the fifth round of trade talks between the US and China in Kuala Lumpur agreed to an extension of the trade truce beyond November 10^th. Interestingly, the readout of the Xi-Trump meeting issued by the Chinese side noted, “Xi stressed that dialogue is better than confrontation”. China’s calibrated and measured response is at odds with the unmissable Trump’s exuberance, who boasted of a massive success in trade talks.

But beneath the veneer of Trump’s proclaimed success of the US-China trade deal lies an inexorable truth of the temporary suspension of implementation of the rare earth export control measures announced on October 9 for one year. This implies that the earlier announcement on rare-earth curbs in April by China would still be in vogue. Trump reduced Fentanyl tariffs to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 50% penetration rule, 301 investigative measures for one year. In turn, China has also agreed to suspend the implementation of non-tariff countermeasures against the US for one year. Countries reached a consensus on anti-drug cooperation on fentanyl, and leaders agreed to work together for global economic stability. In all, Trump has trimmed the trade tariffs to 47% from 57%, lower than India's.

China pledged to purchase 12 million metric tonnes (MMT) of soybeans this year and an additional 25 MMT for the next three years to stabilise ties. Beijing has also agreed to terminate investigations targeting US companies and resume trade from Nexperia facilities in China. Beijing’s blockade of Nexperia chip shipments sent shock waves across the European automotive sector. China released its press note on October 30, hours after the summit, White House’s Fact Sheet was out on November 1^st. This gave upbeat Trump to revel in self-promotion as he effusively rated his meeting with Xi as “12 on the scale of 10”.

By averting immediate escalation, both leaders secured a temporary reprieve from the retaliatory countermeasures. Yet, Trump’s climbdown reflected America’s waning economic leverage. He unleashed the tariff trade war to target China. But, given America’s reliance on China for critical minerals, he was compelled to take a restrained approach.

By deferring the rare earth controls by one year, Xi avoided a serious trade escalation and demonstrated to the World who holds the cards. A tight leash on rare-earth exports can potentially choke the US economy. Back in 1992, on his tour to Baotou rare earth facilities, in Inner Mongolia, Deng Xiaoping stated, “The Middle East has its oil; China has rare earths”. Planning ahead of time, understanding the importance of rare earths, China’s industrial policy strategically prioritised them. While Beijing invested all its forces to dominate crucial mineral mining, refining and processing, General Motors of the US began divesting from rare earths.

Countries should have paid heed to the said and unsaid words of Chinese leaders who were preparing to weaponise these crucial minerals. But the US, smitten by an industrial strategy paralysis, allowed the sale of GM’s Magnequench in Indiana to a consortium which had two sons-in-law of Deng on the board. The unit closed by the mid-2000s. Around the same time, the rare-earth reserve in Mountain Pass Mine, located in the Mojave Desert, which catered to 60 to 70% of global supplies, was ordered to shut down by the Environmental Protection Agency due to wastewater leakages. It was the world’s second-largest mine.

While the US lagged, through export subsidies and asymmetric VAT systems, China favoured its domestic manufacturers. By the late 2000s, when the US stopped producing rare earths, China took the lead. Though Molycorp tried to revive the Mountain Pass in 2008, Chinese export quotas turned the market tide. By lifting curbs on exports after the diplomatic row with Japan in 2010, China exported rare earths at low profit margins. Backed by government subsidies, Chinese companies flooded the global markets, making the business unsustainable for others.

After decades of policy paralysis, the US is making efforts to secure the rare earth supply chain through “Operation Warp Speed”. Treasury Secretary confidently remarked that European and Asian countries would join the US in developing reliable supply chains. Trump has alienated friends and allies with tariffs, fostering reluctance among countries to join Washington’s initiative. Even if the US aggressively pushes for self-reliance now, its efforts might at least take 5-7 years to yield tangible results. Having squandered decades of strategic opportunity, Washington finds itself playing catch-up to match an ascendant China.

Endowed with substantial reserves of critical minerals, China has astutely mastered the technology to mine and process rare earths for decades. Controlling more than 69% of rare earth reserves and 90% of processing capacity, Beijing has also systematically acquired rare-earth mining rights from various countries to strengthen its dominance. Risking significant environmental dangers over many years, China has monopolised rare earth processing. Imposing tight controls on rare-earth exports, China not only signalled its willingness to wield economic coercion but also unintentionally exposed the United States’ strategic vulnerabilities and unpreparedness.

US dependence on rare-earth far exceeds China’s requirement of US soybeans. With zero US soybean imports this harvest season, Beijing showed who held the cards in these trade negotiations. China trumped the US at its own game of economic warfare. By blocking rare earth exports and rerouting agricultural imports from Latin America, Xi has shown the world who is the boss. With few cards against Beijing, Trump wasn’t into hard bargaining with Xi. Instead, he was courting Xi to defer the tight regulations on critical mineral exports. For all the brouhaha, countries, at best, reached a status quo. A comprehensive trade deal remains elusive as of now, with no major breakthrough on the horizon.

Trump is on a weak wicket, and the Republican containment policy of China hardly resonates with the American public. The 2025 Chicago Council Survey shows that 53% Americans favour friendly cooperation and engagement with China and only 50% perceive China as a threat to the US, down from 58% in 2023. Negative perceptions about China have rebounded, with Democrats holding the most favourable view of Beijing.

As per the survey, Americans see the US and China as the top two global powers. 53% believe that America is strong militarily, while the verdict is narrowly split about the economic power- 34% see the US as a major economic power, and 33% perceive China as economically stronger.  Given the rising inflation, Americans are rejecting high tariffs against China.

However, a whopping 82% of Americans refuse the idea of granting China the sphere of influence of Asia. The survey may not be a true reflection of American society, riven by partisan affiliations playing a role in shifting attitudes. However, by and large, the underlying message of diminishing dominance of the US is clear. The age of American unipolarity is nearing an end.  Trump started the trade war to bully China, got bullied in turn. Forced to dial down, pandering to Beijing, he hasn’t raised the issue of Taiwan or Chinese purchases of Russian oil during his meeting with Xi. Though the US still leads in innovation, design and advanced technologies, a retreating Washington is now focused on bolstering its hemispheric dominance.

For the first time since the Cold War, America has grudgingly ceded ground to China, accepting its global rise. Bargaining from a position of weakness, Trump preferred to woo Xi to avert a plausible collapse of strategic industries due to the lack of rare-earth minerals. Trump’s unpredictability and transactionalism have eroded mutual trust even in alliance partnerships.

Paradoxically, just as many Americans remain reluctant to decouple with China, Southeast Asian and European nations—despite territorial disputes and concerns over Beijing’s mercantilist practices—are choosing to manage their relationships with China rather than confront it. At the same time, they continue to maintain strong ties with the United States.

While President Trump hastily framed the meeting as a “G2,” hinting at a global duopoly, the geopolitical reality today defies such binary divisions. The world can no longer be neatly delineated into spheres of influence or rigid blocs. Recognising their deep interdependencies, countries are increasingly prioritising strategic interests—engaging with major powers while retaining their strategic autonomy. The logic of G2 is misplaced in the contemporary geopolitical arena with multiple players and many poles. The rise of Middle Powers like India, Russia, Germany, Turkey and GCC nations and their growing relevance in the new global order hints at a new reset.

However, as the great power competition between the US and China intensifies, the world will witness a restructuring of supply chains and a strategic realignment of countries to safeguard their national interests. Clearly, the archaic framework of G2 capable of imposing its decisions on the rest of the World is a relic of the Cold War era.  Though Trump’s G2 offhand reference of G2 is the strategic reality of their mutual interdependencies, an impulsive compartmentalisation of spheres of influence undermines global stability.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Dollar Diplomacy: Trump Dangles Economic Aid to Sway Argentina

 With his tariff ‘magic bullet’, Trump has irked both friend and foe alike. Fearing American wrath, traditional American allies- Japan and South Korea, the EU and export-oriented economies- sealed trade deals pledging investments for lower tariffs. China, the largest trade partner of the US, with a huge trade surplus in its favour, had dug in its heels. The US-China trade war can be traced back to Trump’s first term, when the US levied retaliatory tariffs citing unfair trade practices and intellectual theft. China retaliated with its own tariffs. Following the escalations in 2019, countries signed the Phase 1 trade deal in 2020, and those tariffs remained in place until Trump’s second inauguration in 2025.

In addition to the sweeping tariffs on all trading partners, Trump announced ‘fentanyl’ tariffs on China in the second term. After an initial phase of escalation, intransigence, tariff readjustments and Trump’s TACOs, countries agreed for a three-month period, which is set to expire on November 9. Since Trump’s first term, China’s economic heft, influence, and global presence have increased manifold. Trump Liberation Day tariffs announced on April 2 stated, “protecting sovereignty and strengthening economic and national security” as the rationale and declared, “foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency”. While the blanket tariffs on countries are an attempt to leverage trade, the primary target of Trump was China.

Gearing up for a coercive trade war, Beijing bolstered its trade levers in the past seven years. Strategically working on weaknesses, Beijing has readied itself to beat the US at its own game. Besides building scientific and technological prowess, China began dissuading third countries from siding with the US. Pushing the envelope further, China has deepened its influence in America’s strategic backyard, Latin America and the Caribbean. Although Trump has escalated the trade war, he is critically aware that coercive tariffs alone are too insignificant to challenge the growing Beijing economic and geopolitical heft.

With zero imports of US soybeans, citing high tariffs for the first time in seven years, in a show of power and confidence, China hit back at the US.  Last year, China purchased nearly half of the entire soybean exports worth $12.5 billion or 27 million metric tonnes. The total soybean exports of the US are worth $24.5 billion. This year, China dumped the US farmers and imported soybeans from Argentina and Brazil. This left US stunned. Soybean imports from Brazil rose 29.9% and those from Argentina jumped 91.5%.

China’s tit for tat move underscored its ability to inflict serious damage to the US economy. With one move, Beijing turned American farmers against Trump and demonstrated its ability to strategically source agricultural imports from third parties at will.

In early 2023, Argentina was invited to join BRICS along with five other countries- Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, Javier Milei, who stormed into power in the 2023 Presidential election, declined to join the BRICS, reflecting a pro-Western foreign policy shift. During his election campaign, Milei dismissed any “business with communists” and maintained that he wouldn’t maintain diplomatic ties with China. Months into power, with economic realism dawning, Milei accepted the renewal of the currency swap with China in 2024 to repay $5billion debt. In November 2024, Milei met President Xi at the Brazil G20 summit and held talks with him.

Taking over the presidency, Milei, a libertarian economist, faced the insurmountable challenge of taming the bloating inflation and rescuing the sinking economy. Milei's austerity measures proved effective. The economy showed signs of recovery inflation came down to 100% as of December 2024 from 300%. However, by February 2025, a financial scandal unfolded after eight crypto wallets withdrew $99 million from the liquidity pool of the $LIBRA token promoted by Milei, undermining his credibility. Meanwhile, his austerity measures triggered protests. The initial temporary shocks of the devaluation of the Peso and the ‘crawling peg’ strategy of controlling inflation temporarily stabilised the economy. In the absence of comprehensive structural reforms, this failed to translate into sustainable growth. Consequently, to replenish depleting forex reserves, Milei sought $ 20 billion IMF bailout.

Since 1958, Argentina has received 22 IMF bailouts, mostly to repay the IMF itself. Argentina owes $44 billion to the IMF, and the institution, though wary, has finally approved a bailout thanks to the potential claims of “Milei Miracle” in April. Argentina is the largest borrower of IMF bailouts. However, two months ahead of the legislative elections on October 26, the Peso has collapsed, posing a serious threat to Milei’s regime. Milei, who aligns closely with MAGA, has rushed to Washington. Trump more obligingly authorised $20 billion aid package, proposing to double it if Milei wins the legislative elections, warning, “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”

Milei swept the mid-term election, and the US will now extend a $40 billion aid package ($20 billion currency swap plus $20 billion aid from sovereign wealth funds and private banks). Amid uproar from both aisles—betrayed American farmers, who deemed the financial aid to a competitor as awkwardly contradictory to “America First Agenda,” and Democrats attempted to unanimously pass “No Argentina Bailout Act,” Trump approved the bailout plan. Notwithstanding the backlash from the Republican MAGA camp and political opponents, Trump announced plans to import Argentinian beef as well.

Stating aid to Argentina “is not election-specific, it is policy-specific”, while presenting the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen Award to President Javier Milei, Bessent let the cat out of the bag. He insisted that the package is part of the “economic Monroe Doctrine” of asserting the United States’ domination in the Western Hemisphere. Trump’s strategic intervention in Argentina stems from burgeoning Chinese influence in its backyard.

Argentina and China signed a Belt and Road Initiative cooperation plan in 2023 with a focus on infrastructure, energy and industrial development. With the acquisition of 80% stakes in Standard Bank of Argentina, China steadily increased its footprint in the country through subnational agreements. Given the strong federal character of Argentina, where provinces have direct control over resources, by passing the national government, Beijing is directly signing agreements with provincial governments- copper mining (Catamarca province),  Potassium mining (Buenos Aires, Salta provinces), coal mining (La Pampa Province), Lithium (Jujay, Catamarca, Salta provinces), gold and silver mining (San Juan province). China is also actively engaged in constructing hydroelectric power plants, solar parks, a fourth nuclear power plant, Atucha III, aerospace base in Neuquen in Argentina. The telecommunications network in Argentina is now dominated by Huawei, banned by Western countries over national security issues.

China is also the top destination of Argentinian beef, which makes up over 50 per cent of the country’s exports. In September, availing Argentina’s suspended export tax window increased soybean imports from Argentina, stirring a domestic storm in America. China has emerged as a vital partner for Argentina on an equal footing with the US. 

Countries first signed a currency swap agreement in 2009. Over the years, it was extended to $18.3 billion (130 billion yuan), including the latest renewal agreement of $5 billion in April 2025. Bessent travelled to Argentina to stall the renewal and threatened to withhold $20 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an arrangement with the US since 1958. Later, Trump’s Latin America envoy said that the US wants Argentina to end its currency swap with China at a conference. In response, China shot back, saying China’s currency swap contributes to “Argentina’s economic and financial stability and is welcomed by the Argentine government”. The currency swap enabled Argentina to convert yuan into dollars to repay debts.

The Currency swap served twin purposes for China in terms of deepening its involvement in the Argentinian economy and promoting international use of the yuan, elevating its global stature and chipping countries away from dollar dominance.

Unambiguously admitting Washington’s concerns over China’s deepening economic engagement with Argentina, Bessent stated that the US didn’t want Latin American countries to confer mining rights of rare earths for financial aid, as it has happened in Africa. Latin American countries are sitting on a huge pile of critical minerals.

Having monopolised the global supply of critical minerals, tightly regulating their exports, Beijing leveraged them against the US in this ongoing tariff war. Indispensable for chips, EVs, automobiles and renewable energy, a critical shortfall can paralyse the US defence and other allied sectors. To reduce reliance on China, Trump has frantically inked critical mineral framework agreements with Australia, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Japan. Trump even wooed Pakistan for mineral exploration and mining projects.

Contending with a declining American hegemony, the Trump administration is focused on building domestic stability and reasserting the US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. China’s growing economic power, with ambitions of reshaping the World order, poses an imminent challenge to US unipolarity. Beijing is now an economic and geopolitical risk for the United States. Trump’s economic package for Argentina is an attempt to win an ally in the region and wean it away from the Chinese orbit. The huge rare-earth stockpile is a huge bonus which Trump refuses to let go of, even at the cost of angering its MAGA camp.

Trump’s geopolitical manoeuvring signals a renewed U.S. push to reclaim influence in Latin America. Washington appears to be deploying every tool at its disposal to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, Trump has ramped up pressure on Venezuela, while simultaneously signalling a willingness to revisit tariffs on Brazil—even as the Senate moves to block them. Though whispers of a neocolonial plan remain speculative, Trump’s aggressive interventions in the region make such concerns hard to dismiss.

@ Copyrights reserved.