As always, the prelude to the SCO meeting is dominated by popular debate about the relevance of SCO for India. Founded by Russia and China, labeled as an anti-Western front and coalition of authoritarian regimes, a section of strategic analysts rued India’s association with the SCO. Shrinking Moscow’s economic and political heft, the ascendancy of China, the deepening China-Pakistan nexus and Beijing’s plans of turning it into a China club have further sharpened this debate. India’s growing proximity to the West has further made this an oddity.
At a time when the world is grappling
to recover from the Covid onslaught, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian military
confrontation has further derailed the path of recovery intensifying food and
fuel security challenges. Against these widespread disappointments, India’s
need-based intervention during the Covid gave it ample room for setting its
economy right. Russia’s economy is reeling under the burden of wasted war and
China’s zero covid policy has hemorrhaged its economy and frequent supply chain
disruptions are forcing investors to exit. India’s resilient economy and
independent foreign policy are now looked upon by the world.
Countries in the extended
neighbourhood especially the Central Asian Republics (CARs) burdened by Chinese
debts and domestic backlash against China are seeking to break free from the
stranglehold of Russia and China and are placing bets on India. India’s resistance
to Chinese aggression has further positioned India as a responsible power and
bulwark of sorts against The Dragon.
As suggested by Harsh Pant, “India
must make the most of its geopolitical sweet spot”, New Delhi is leaving no
stone unturned to seize its right place across different multilateral platforms
to advance its growth story1. To prevent the Sino-Russo axis
from becoming a fool-proof alliance and to manage ties with China from the inside
rather than outside, India is actively engaged with SCO.
During his 24-hour-long engagement at
SCO, PM Modi, refusing to be ensnared by China’s popular gambit, avoided any
kind of brush with President Xi and even skipped the informal SCO heads of
state dinner. Days before the SCO, China dangled carrots of minor disengagement
at the PP15 anticipating India’s request for a dialogue with their leader at
SCO. With Beijing firmly rejecting de-escalation at a major face-off in Depsang
plains, Modi royally ignored China’s frivolous tactics and refused to play into
Chinese hands. Similarly, Modi snubbed Pakistan for its blatant duplicity of
continued cross-border provocation despite a ceasefire agreement. But held
meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Uzbekistan President Shevkat
Mirziyoyev, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Erdogan.
Underscoring the centrality of Central
Asian countries for SCO, Modi touched upon priority areas of bilateral
cooperation, trade, economic cooperation and connectivity including the
considered use of Chabahar Port and INSTC to unlock trade potential with the
host Uzbekistan. This meeting is in a continuum of the first India-Central Asia
summit in January, where both sides set a roadmap for connectivity2.
But Modi’s opening remarks of “Today’s
era is not of war..” 3 with Putin grabbed all the
attention. Mischievously interpreted as a rebuke by Western analysts, Putin
immediately acknowledged that he was aware of India’s position of diplomacy and
dialogue and proposed visa-free tourist travel.
One of the main objectives of the
establishment of SCO was to maintain stability and security of the vast
Eurasian region and counteract the emerging challenges, promote trade and
cultural and humanitarian cooperation. Among the core visions of SCO is to
fight the three evils- extremism, terrorism, and separatism. But over a period
of time, in line with China’s economic trajectory and BRI launch, the SCO
shifted its attention to enhancing economic cooperation and promoting trade
through improved connectivity.
The predecessor of SCO, “Shanghai
Five” comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan was
formed in 1996 to deepen military trust along the border region. With the
joining of Uzbekistan, this turned into SCO, (Shanghai Organisation
Cooperation), a multilateral organisation in 2001. China and Russia vied to
exercise their control as the organisation sought to expand, Russia backed
Indian membership, while Beijing brought Pakistan into the group. Consequently,
both New Delhi and Islamabad were granted observer status in 2005 and in 2017 and
both of them became full-fledged members of SCO.
The 22nd SCO summit held at
Uzbekistan’s cultural capital Samarkand was attended by all the eight
full-fledged members- comprising four Central Asian Republics, China, Russia,
India and Pakistan held on September 15-16 for the first in-person summit after
three years. In addition, the Presidents of three Observer States- Iran,
Belarus, Mongolia, guest countries- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and International
Organisations- Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), Common Wealth of
Independent States (CIS), Conference of Interaction and Confidence Building
Measures in Asia (CICA), Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU) and UN also participated in the SCO. SCO held two
sessions- restricted for full-fledged members and an extended session attended
by all the invitees and the SCO Member States.
Covering a geographical expanse of 60%
of Eurasia, representing 40 % of the world population and 30% of global GDP,
SCO is the largest regional organization. In a massive boost to the expansion
drive of SCO, Iran is going to be inducted as the ninth member officially in
2023. Full-fledged membership for Belarus and Mongolia is under process. SCO
has now officially granted dialogue partner status to eight countries- Bahrain,
UAE, Kuwait, Myanmar, Nepal, the Maldives, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. With an
appetite for expansion, the SCO has spread to South Asia and is set to
encompass the West Asian region under its ambit promoting multipolarity.
While the reputation of the SCO Member
States is subject to varied interpretations, in terms of economic and nuclear
heft, this is one of the most influential groupings comprising four nuclear
powers. But the presence of India in SCO has lent the group some credibility
and transparency, whose principles align with India’s commitment to
multipolarity. Through its multitudinous partnerships with countries belonging
to varied blocs, India is now effectively serving as a bridge between various
power centres.
Coinciding the SCO meeting, there was
a spurt in border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and a major
escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan has underlined the tenuous peace and
stability in the region. Armenia didn’t attend SCO due to a military
confrontation with Azerbaijan. Representatives of the Tajik and Kyrgyzstan
exchanged demarches over border clashes along the sidelines of the meeting.
Tasked with maintaining Eurasian stability, SCO’s spirit has been put to a
major test now. Putin has appealed for peace and pitched in to mediate the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
In the light of the Ukraine Crisis,
SCO Member States reiterated their “commitment to a representative, just,
democratic multipolar world order based on universally recognised principles of
international law, multilateralism, equal, common, indivisible, comprehensive
and sustainable security, multicultural and civilisational diversity, mutual
benefit and equal cooperation with a central coordinating role for the UN”4.
Unlike the Western countries, the SCO
countries effectively lack a common binding factor. To make for the lack of a pronounced
congruence, the declaration effectively highlighted the concerns of most of the
member countries. Unanimous exhortation of - “unilateral application of
economic sanctions other than by the UNSC is inconsistent with the principles
of international law and adversely affects third countries and international
economic relations” reflect the same. Reiteration of, “the inadmissibility
of interference in the internal affairs of States under the pretext of
countering terrorism and extremism, as well as the inadmissibility of the use
of terrorist, extremist and radical groups for selfish ends”, underscored
Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan.
Unequivocally condemning, terrorism,
countries called for a speedy settlement of the Afghanistan situation and the establishment
of an inclusive government for strengthening the security and stability of the
region. Uncertainty in Afghanistan has dire consequences for the region and
India as well. With regional security an integral aspect of its existence, SCO
is the most effective forum to address the Afghanistan issue.
The Samarkand Declaration called for
an outer space free of weapons, enforcement of nuclear disarmament, no global
stockpiling of missiles and strict adherence to biological and chemical weapons
treaty.
Evolving as a major group, SCO is now
slowly building alternate organizations and mechanisms which include the SCO Economic
Forum and SCO Economic Think Tanks, SCO Member States Techno Parks Pool, SCO
Business Council, SCO Interbank Association, SCO Development Bank and the SCO
Development Fund. In the process, SCO has adopted a roadmap for increasing the
share of National Currencies in Mutual Settlements and called for its expansion
as well.
Member States have resolved to
cooperate in counter-terrorism, digital economy and digital technologies,
international information security, energy cooperation, telemedicine,
international road and rail administration, disaster management assistance,
tracking down illicit drug trafficking, environment protection and sports. SCO
has also charted out a roadmap for cooperation to control preventive and
infectious diseases and epidemic threats and climate change. In all, 28
intergovernmental agreements were approved including those on plant quarantine,
tourism and industrial cooperation5.
Fostering multi-faceted cooperation,
the SCO Member States welcomed the “Samarkand Solidarity Initiative
for Common Security and Prosperity” forwarded by the Uzbekistan President
ensuring peace and stability and sustainable development.
At SCO, PM Modi underscored the need
for developing reliable, resilient and diversified supply chains for the region,
the need for better connectivity, and the importance of giving each other “full
right to transit”. Denying transit access, Pakistan has blocked India’s
connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. He offered to share India’s
experience of using technology for ‘people-centric development’ by
establishing a Special Working Group on Start-ups and Innovation and a Special
Working Group on Traditional Medicine with India as permanent chair6.
To address the challenging food
security situation, Modi recommended the cultivation and consumption of Millets
and proposed to conduct Millet Food Festival in the wake of the UN declaring
2023 as the ‘International Year of Millets’.
As the chair of the SCO Council of
Heads of government in 2020, India organised the first ever digital Buddhist
shared heritage exhibition, SCO Young Scientists Conclave, SCO Startups Forum,
SCO MSME Forum, and translation of 10 books of regional literature into
official languages of SCO- Chinese and Russian. India assumed the chairmanship
of the Council of Regional Anti-terrorist Structure (SCO-RATS) in 2021.
With India set to assume the SCO chair
for the year 2023, the task for New Delhi is cut out. Varanasi is nominated as
the first ever SCO Tourism and cultural capital as per regulation adopted at
the Dushanbe SCO Summit 2021 to promote tourism, cultural and humanitarian
exchanges between India and SCO members. It underlines India’s ancient
civilisational links with member states of SCO, especially CARs7.
Despite the global power play and the
insidious Sino-Pak nexus always at work, there is a deep appreciation of what
India brings to the table especially- values, ethos, leadership and economic
advantages. Shedding the ideational trappings, India is leaping forward to
forge new partnerships with various countries to emerge as a power of global
relevance. India aspires to turn SCO into another stepping stone for its
potential rise.
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