The Tale of Two Ships and the Geopolitics

The Indo-Pacific Front has now turned into a theatre of fresh geopolitical contestations. China’s muscle flexing post-Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has pushed the world to the edge of the seat over a plausible close confrontation between two major powers. The whole episode inadvertently exposed China’s preternatural expansionist proclivities and Washington’s opportunistic strategic messaging.

Beijing claims the South China Sea (SCS) as a veritable ‘China Lake’ laying claims to nearly 90% of the SCS as part of orchestrated Nine-Dash Line interpretation. Subsequently, China has shifted its focus on dominating the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the strategic backyard of India. Since 2008, as part of its Military Operations Other than War (MOOTW) China began independent counter-piracy deployments in the Gulf of Aden. As a part of this mission, China has collaborated with the Navies of India, Japan and South Korea as well. However, from 2014 Dec to 2015 Feb China deployed a nuclear submarine, Chanzheng 2 along with the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army (Navy)) flotilla from the South Sea Fleet. This raised serious doubts about the agenda of China¹.

Under the guise of anti-piracy operations, China entered India’s backyard and accompanied by a research flotilla, China started mapping and collecting crucial hydrological data of the Western Indian Ocean. Operating away from its base for months has enhanced the capabilities of PLAN to evolve as a blue water navy. Conventionally, submarines have never been part of the piracy operations and they indeed serve no purpose in chasing speedily moving small boats used by pirates. Clearly, China is on a mission to challenge the Indian Navy in its maritime domain.

This nuclear submarine and warship, Chang Xing Dao and another submarine docked at Sri Lanka’s Colombo port ahead of President Xi Jinping’s visit to the region. This raised diplomatic tensions between India and Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan then Navy spokesperson Kosala Warnakulasuriya dismissed Indian concerns stating, “this is nothing unusual. Since 2010, 230 warships have called at Colombo port from various countries on goodwill visits and for refueling and crew refreshment”².

China’s ties with Indian Ocean Island were never sanguine, besides the frequent visits of the naval vessels, the speculations over the building of an aircraft maintenance facility at Trincolamee to repair Chinese-made aircraft have clearly unsettled New Delhi. To discuss these issues, back then, secretary to the Ministry of Defence and former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa traveled to India to meet NSA Ajit Doval.

Encirclement of India has been a cardinal doctrine of China. Sino-Pakistan nexus has been potentially catering to this on the continental terrain. To surround India on the maritime front, China has propped up the “String of Pearls” wherein China has surreptitiously turned other small ports from Myanmar to Djibouti under its operational control into naval bases.

On July 12^th, a day before former Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country, Sri Lanka announced official clearance for port call of China’s space and satellite tracking research vessel Yuan wang 5 at Hambantota for over a week from August 11^th.  As per reports Yuan wang 5, is a dual-use ship used for space and satellite tracking and for intercontinental ballistic launches. This is the third-generation ship in the Yuan Wang series and was inducted into service in 2007.  It has an aerial reach of over 750 kilometers and it intends to snoop on India’s key defence and strategic installations- Kudankulam, Kalpakkam, Chandipur, Sriharikota and ports in Andhra, Tamilnadu and Kerala.

While there is a prevailing argument that a small country like Sri Lanka is facing the heat in the contest between two giants India and China. In 1987, India and Sri Lanka signed an accord stating that respective territories including Trincomalee will not be used for activities prejudicial to each other’s unity, integrity, and sovereignty.  Defending Sri Lanka’s decision of permitting the Chinese ship to dock, Sri Lankan Army spokesperson Colonel Nalin Herath said, “Sri Lanka routinely gives clearance to commercial and military ships from many countries to go past and also enter Sri Lankan waters. We have given permission and clearance to the Chinese vessel in that context. Yuan Wang 5 is expected to dock in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port from Aug 11-17 for replenishment”. The Island nation is currently reeling under severe fuel shortage and thriving on weekly fuel rations. In the face of this situation, the contentious logic of replenishment failed to cut the corners.

Ostensibly timing a visit during an economic crisis, China is exploiting the economic crisis to turn the Lankan ports into Chinese Naval bases. International maritime laws don’t allow research and exploration activities in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries.

In 2019 a Chinese spying vessel Shin Yan 1 was detected in the IOR near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands supposedly for carrying out research activities. Indian Navy ship chased away this ship. In 2020, China has deployed a dozen underwater drones “Sea Wing” into IOR from the hydrographic and Ocean research ship Xiangyanghong 06 to collect Oceanographic data³.  

Given Beijing’s quest for dominance in the IOR, taking cognizance of Sri Lanka’s decision of allowing the Chinese spy vessel to dock at Hambantota, MEA spokesperson stated, “The Government (of India) carefully monitors any developments having a bearing on India’s security and economic interests, and takes all necessary measures to safeguard them. I think that should be a clear message”. Colombo’s decision to permit a Chinese vessel to visit comes at a time when India’s lifeline of over $3.8 billion in financial assistance, petrol, food supplies, medicines and other essentials eased the island’s economic emergency. New Delhi recommended Sri Lanka’s case to IMF and steered negotiations to expedite assistance.

On the contrary, China rejected to reschedule Sri Lanka’s $ 5 billion it owed and instead of assistance, Beijing offered to refinance a $1 billion loan to repay. In April China’s ambassador to Sri Lanka, Qi Zhenhong, condescendingly mocked, “countries that colonised Sri Lanka has more obligation at this juncture” ⁴. But China subsequently changed its stand and offered to play an active in encouraging IMF to consider the Sri Lankan case. Intriguingly, despite China’s ambivalent stance and experts blaming the “debt trap diplomacy”, Colombo undermined India’s interest.

India expressed its concerns about the Chinese spy ship. Sri Lanka initially demurred. Indeed, taking an indirect dig at India, China said, “it hoped relevant parties would refrain from interfering with its legitimate maritime activities”. But things quickly changed. China’s furious reaction to Pelosi’s Taiwan and its military maneuvers has run roughshod on the strategic dynamics of the region. Opposition parties in Sri Lanka and the Senior Buddhist Monk Rathanasara Thero prevailed on the government stating, “considering the tense situation in some parts of the world and Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, the arrival of the warship is unwarranted and unacceptable”.

This has prompted Sri Lanka to revisit its decision. Striking a fine balance, supporting the “One-China Policy”, factoring the importance of the west and India’s help to pull the country out of the economic crisis, Colombo urged Beijing to defer the vessel visit. The popular opinion of the Sri Lankan domestic constituency contradicts allegations of India singularly pressuring Colombo to stall the visit. Ostensibly, by allowing the Pakistan vessel, PNS Taimur, returning from military exercises with Cambodia and China to dock at Colombo from Aug 12-15, Sri Lanka has demonstrated its true intentions towards Indian concerns. Not interested in ruffling feathers with India, Dhaka has denied permission to Pakistani ship⁵.

Overriding Sri Lanka’s reluctant reciprocity and diplomatic jugglery, exercising its muscle perhaps, the US Navy cargo ship docked at L&T shipyard in Kattupalli, Chennai on August 7^th for “repairs and maintenance”. This is the first time ever that an American ship has docked at an Indian port.

While China continues to pull its strings through Sri Lanka, upping the great game in the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit, marking the “beginning of a new chapter for deeper engagements”, USNS Charles Drew arrived for undertaking repairs and allied services at India and will dock for 11 days⁶. The US has now shifted its focus to Indo-Pacific. With plans of nimbly expanding its footprints in the offing, visits by US vessels will be frequent. The first-ever US naval ship to India coincided with the joint Indo-US joint military exercises, “Ex Vajra Prahar 2022” in Himachal to improve the interoperability between forces.

Sooner than later, the Indo-Pacific is bound to become an arena for new contestations. Invariably, the relationships between countries within the region will be put to test time and again. Engulfed by the storm of the shifting world order, nations in this part of the world will be forced to make choices and reassert their priorities. Unfortunately, the defining feature of India’s neighborhood is the expectation of New Delhi to be the “first responder” and their potent reluctance towards the “India First” policy. An emphatic understanding of the security concerns of each other countries is a must to traverse through these changes. In absence of such reciprocity and objective understanding, bilateral partnerships will be affected. Trust and confidence can alone sustain mutually beneficial strategic partnerships.

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