The Killing of Al-Zawahiri is a Mere Stopgap Measure

A cat has nine lives so does Ayman Al-Zawahiri who died many times in decades. Every time he was reported dead in an airstrike or disease some of his video or audio recordings resurfaced. On August 1^st President Biden who was under isolation following the relapse of Covid announced that justice was delivered to the 9/11 victims.

Al-Zawahiri, leader of Al-Qaeda and accomplice of Osama bin Laden sheltered in posh quarters of Kabul owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani, interior minister in the Taliban regime was killed in a US drone attack on July 31^st. He is the world’s most wanted man with a $25 million bounty on his head. After receiving confirmation of a drone strike from the Taliban, Biden announced the killing of Zawahiri.

But now the Taliban is silent on the target of the attack and says they are investigating the ‘US claim’. They alleged that the US has violated the sovereignty of Afghanistan and US condemned the breach of the 2020 Doha Agreement that facilitated the return of the Taliban and laid the conditions for US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The agreement explicitly extracts a promise that the Taliban shouldn’t harbour Al-Qaeda or other terrorist outfits that target or attack the west.

Amid a series of misguided and impulsive foreign policy decisions, the killing of Al-Zawahiri is a notable achievement for Biden with tanking popularity. US announcement comes close to the first anniversary of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, has in a way salvaged the US’s reputation. Zawahiri’s killing underscored the relentless pursuit of the US to track down the architects of 9/11 even after 21 years and its deliverance capabilities through the Over the Horizon Counter Terrorism (OTH-CT) task force.

Nonetheless, eliminating the world’s most wanted man without no civilian casualties is an outright victory for the US which has an ignominious record of botched-up air strikes. With midterm elections around the corner, this success will bode well for the Democrats.

While this is a high note for the US intelligence agencies, the operation itself raises many questions about the gross underwhelming understanding of the US towards the terror outfits and their patrons in the region. In an uncanny resemblance- the chief architect Osama bin Laden was traced to Pakistan’s Abbottabad cantonment area where he was neutralized. His accomplice Zawahiri sheltered in the Wazir Akbar colony which once served as the diplomatic enclave of Kabul was taken down with Hellfire R9X missiles, equipped with razor-like blades to slice through the target but don’t explode.

For decades, Pakistan double-crossed the US but still, they relied on Pakistan to target the Taliban. Taking, the Taliban’s word, the US pulled out from Afghanistan only to find that Zawahiri believed to be in Afghan-Paki border areas found safe havens in Kabul right under the nose of the Taliban with the help of the Haqqani network, funded by Pakistan’s ISI. Since 2020, the US started dealing with the Taliban through Doha links instead of Islamabad.

Experts say that given the operational style of Al-Qaeda, the death of Zawahiri is more of a symbolic blow. It is unlikely to deter any attacks from Al-Qaeda which operates in a franchise style with several far-flung branches which operate independently.  Saif al-adel, a former Egyptian special forces officer is likely to succeed Zawahiri as the chief of Al-Qaeda.

A surreal hallow of a complete transformation of the Taliban was widely propagated after their return to power last year.  They were platformed at international meetings as well. Now, this carefully constructed narrative of a different Taliban 2.0 is smashed to smithereens. The latest attack has dented the international credibility of the Taliban. Countries will now back down on recognising the Taliban regime which has been facing international backlash for resisting the calls for an inclusive government.

Recently the Taliban has been building a perception of containing terror attacks in the country to expedite the talks on the release of $3.5 billion in Afghanistan Central Bank reserves. In the last week of July, America expressed the need to accelerate efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The presence of Zawahiri in Kabul has for now stonewalled the process.

It is known that Al-Qaeda and Haqqani have close matrimonial and strategic ties. Al-Qaeda established its first training camp in Haqqani network territory. Similarly, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have close relations. Nazrul Islam, an Islamabad observer said, “we shouldn’t forget that the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Omar had sacrificed his government to protect Osama bin Laden following the 9/11 attacks”. Clearly, the resurgence of Al-Qaeda was on cards under the Taliban-Haqqani regime.

In his detailed piece, Jeff M Smith¹ states that in 2007 Haqqani network had officially affiliated with the Afghan Taliban. Haqqani network is the ‘veritable arm’ of Pakistan. It has been indispensable for Pakistani intelligence who in turn leans on Sirajuddin Haqqani to serve as a mediator in Pakistan’s talks with TTP. While to outsiders, Taliban and Haqqani are indistinguishable, internal tussle over portfolio allocation exposed their differences forcing the Pakistani intelligence chief to settle the issue.

Afghanistan’s airspace was used in Operation Neptune Spear to nab Laden, while it is still anyone’s guess if Pakistan airspace is used in the killing of Zawahiri, the political turmoil in Pakistan, talks of US-Pakistan recalibration of ties and General Bajwa’s outreach to the US for IMF loan precisely nails one actor. Though Pakistan officially denied any role in Zawahiri’s killing, its inextricable links with the Haqqani network invariably state the unsaid.

The killing of Zawahiri marks the end of a legacy that is unlikely to affect the operational capabilities of Al-Qaeda but would escalate dissensions in the current Taliban-Haqqani regime. This by some account is akin to a coup, but by co-opting the mothership of terror for short-term strategic gains, the fight against terrorism can never be complete.

India would be now a little circumspect about its engagement with the Taliban. In a video message, Zawahiri waded into the Hijab controversy and praised an Indian girl and asked Muslims to fight the assault on Islam. His controversial remarks on Kashmir and call for recruitment to Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS) raised concerns. While the death of Zawahiri is a major relief, inexorably, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is spawning the proliferation of terror outfits and New Delhi can’t afford any complacency.

Zawahiri’s elimination is a mere stopgap measure, in absence of a robust strategy to extricate the radical Islamic ideologies the fight against terrorism is far from being complete.

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