Antipathy Towards West Brings Russia and Iran Together

Besides the Eurasian front, another front is getting heated up and turning into an epicentre of new partnerships and alignments- The Middle East. The region known for intense military activity, strife and contestations has become fertile ground for hectic diplomatic parleys. Days after President Joe Biden’s engagement with the region, President Putin landed in Tehran on his first tour since the Ukraine war beyond the former Soviet Union.

The Tehran Summit, a meeting between President Putin and Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came just weeks after reports of a Russian delegation in Iran for a putative combat drones purchase. These reports raised speculations of Russia’s falling short of weaponry for its “special military operation” against Ukraine. However, the issue is largely under wraps with no official confirmation from either side.

Fearing domestic anger over exacerbating the Russia-Ukraine tensions, which is likely to increase pressure on the US and Middle East, Iran has kept the development confidential. Wary of tainting its image as a global military power, even Russia chose to keep the issue a secret.

But as a matter of fact, military cooperation has been the basis for the start of a new relationship between Moscow and Tehran. They reinvented this new relationship as Russia is seen as an interventionist power for annexing parts of Iran in the Russo-Persian war (1826-28) which include the present-day Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan and Idgir province of Turkey century and for invading Iran in 1941 with the British¹.  After the fall of the Soviet Union, Iran competed with Turkey for influence in Central Asia and the Caucasian region and this brought Russia and Iran together wherein both countries supported Christian Armenia against Shia Azerbaijan.

Both countries signed the last comprehensive cooperation in 2001 for 10 years and it was later extended twice for a period of five years ending in 2021². Additionally, these countries worked together on various forums like – INSTC, Eurasia Economic Cooperation and in September 2021, Iran was admitted to SCO as a full member. But Iran’s ties with Russia bordered from being friend to foe.

In the aftermath of the US exit from Syria in 2015, both countries worked together to stabilise the Assad regime. Russia also voted in favour of six resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran. Simultaneously, Moscow played the role of a mediator between the West and Iran in JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) negotiations to enhance its great power status. Russia completely believes that Iran shouldn’t have access to nuclear weapons and Moscow doesn’t condone Iran’s nuclear program.

The other two major issues, where Iran and Russian interests converge are Syria and Afghanistan. Russia will resolutely defend its strategic interests in Syria especially the access to Port Tartus that connects the Mediterranean Sea and is keen to collaborate with Iran on Afghanistan to contain the spill of terrorism into its backyard, Central Asia. Russia and Iran have different military abilities and they extensively cooperate to advance their interests in Syria. There were instances when Russia and Iran provided cover for each against the IS (lslamic State). While Russia continued with air strikes, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) provided boots on the ground. In 2016, to strike rebel areas in Syria, Iran has allowed Russia to use its Hamadan airbase³.

Be as it may, consumed by decades of antipathy towards the West, Tehran leaned towards Russia. This ideological synergy has been the sustaining force of the Russo-Iranian ties. A review of multi-dimensional cooperation is on cards and Putin’s visit is believed to boost the prospects of sealing a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the two countries.

Subjected to punitive western sanctions, facing greater isolation and pressure in the aftermath of Biden’s engagement with the region cementing the Abrahamic accords, to send a strong message to the West, Iran and Russia are exploring various avenues for cooperation. The US has steered the formation of an Arab-Israeli alliance that shifted the balance of power from Iran. Chaffing at the Western sanctions, Russia has cemented ties with China and the latest round of sanctions has nudged Moscow to venture into Asian markets.

During the first face to face interaction between the two leaders, Khamenei stated that the two countries need to stay vigilant against “Western Deception” and suggested that “the US dollar should be taken off the global trade, and this can be done gradually”⁴. Iran which has earlier abstained from voting on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and adopted a neutral position has now completely endorsed the Russian stance. Khamenei said Moscow had little alternative, “if you had not taken the initiative, the other side (west) would have caused a war on its own initiative”.  

Chances of reviving the 2015 JCPOA torpedoed after the June Doha talks. While US officials stated, “their vague demands, reopening of settled issues and requests clearly unrelated to the JCPOA all suggests to us… that the real discussion that has to take place is (not) between Iran and the US to resolve remaining differences. It is between Iran and Iran to resolve the fundamental questions about whether they are interested in a mutual return to the JCPOA” as the main roadblock. Iran on the other hand demanded explicit guarantees that future US administrations wouldn’t pull back the plug on the JCPOA and the US expressed its inability to give any such legal guarantees⁵.

Exhausting all options of any redemption, Iran is now betting heavily on Russia to bypass the sanctions and the isolation. To resurrect its global image and break free from the West’s isolation, Russia is pivoting to Asia. While the operationalization of INSTC has revived the spirit of cooperation between Iran and Russia, both countries have a curious cooperative competition between them.

Russia and Iran have the largest and second-largest natural gas reserves respectively. With European markets currently off bound to both countries, both are eyeing Asian markets. Iranian oil exports to China reduced in May after Beijing started preferring the discounted Russian oil. Russians were anxious to expand, protect markets and deny any share to Iran. Moscow believes that Iran’s improved ties with the West can endanger its oil exports as Central Asian Republics would become a better alternative to purchasing oil.

Reeling under decades of sanctions the political dispensation and domestic populace favour a rapprochement with the West. But Iranian hardliners led by Supremo Khamenei want to increase trade with Russia and build that as a front leverage to push back the West and whittle down its sanction regime. 

With a focus on economic cooperation, Iran’s National Oil Company and Russia’s Gazprom have signed an MoU worth $40 billion and planned to gradually abandon the US dollar. Iran is also considering joining Russia’s SWIFT system- System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS).

Tehran has also hosted Turkish President Erdogan who attended the trilateral meeting of leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran, as a part of the Astana peace process to discuss Syria. Erdogan announced his plans for a special military operation in Northern Syria in areas held by People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey considers the YPG an offshoot of PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), deemed a terrorist organization by Ankara. YPG is in fact part of US-backed Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) that takes on the IS.

Threatening to launch the military offensive to extend the 30- km deep “safe zones” along the border, Erdogan sought the solidarity of Iran. But Russia and Iran strongly disapproved of his proposal with Khamenei stating that a military attack in Northern Syria will definitely harm Syria, Turkey and the entire region and terrorists would benefit from it⁶. Russia which is more preoccupied with Ukraine is less interested in playing a military role in Syria. But Iran requested Russia to play a major role in deterring Turkey from launching any major operation in Syria.

Another facet of Erdogan’s travel to Iran despite increasing tensions between Ankara and Tehran over water resources and Iran’s alleged intelligence operations on Turkish territory, is to discuss a Black Sea Grain corridor deal with Russia. As a NATO member, Turkey hosted the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and is now coordinating the UN-led plan for Ukrainian grain export.

A tentative agreement on grain corridors can alleviate the global food crisis by facilitating the export of 22 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural produce. Putin said that America has lifted sanctions on Russian fertiliser supplies to the global markets and if they ease similar restrictions on Russian grain exports, Moscow will facilitate Ukrainian grain shipments.

Constrained by many limiting factors including their competition in energy, Putin’s visit to Tehran is more symbolic and intended to deliver a message to the West of its ability to charter an alternate course to resurrect its global influence and that Russia can’t be cornered. Iran and Russia are portrayed as allies in the anti-West coalition, both countries aren’t strategic allies to date. Both countries are at best political allies with intense loathing of the West as the firm glue. Tehran wouldn’t risk the wrath of the West by way of deep military cooperation with Russia. But if the Ukrainian crisis persists, the former imperial states would continue to amplify their resistance against the West.

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