Is IPEF a Precursor for an Indo-Pacific Axis in the Making?

Trump’s strategic retrenchment and inconsistent military agreements have thrown the nations in the Indo-Pacific region into a lurch. Capitalising on this strategic void, China weaponised trade and normalised economic coercion. Pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and by not being part of the China-led world’s largest trade bloc- RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the US has squandered its economic dominance. Amid the global uncertainties and health crisis, disrupting the crucial global supply chains, China upended the global economic order.  

To resurrect its relevance in the region and reassert its dominance, the Biden administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum for Prosperity (IPEF) ahead of the Tokyo Quad summit joined by 12 countries in the region-Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam¹. The participating nations represent 40% of the global economy. Aspiring to deepen economic engagement with the region crucial for growth and prosperity, the US has rolled out IPEF. With “resilience, inclusiveness, sustainability, economic growth, fairness and competitiveness of economies” as the defining features, the IPEF commenced negotiations based on four pillars- fair trade practices that promote inclusive economic growth and cooperation in the digital economy; resilient supply chains; decarbonisation, clean energy and infrastructure; fair competition by enforcing robust tax and anti-money laundering regimes.

As of now, IPEF is a loosely defined economic bloc, which is a lot more than a mere FTA. With Prime Minister Modi and host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida by his side, President Biden said, “we are rewriting the rules of 21st-century economy. We’re going to help all our economies to grow faster and fairer”². All members of IPEF other than India and the US are part of the TPP and RCEP. Even though the details of the IPEF are still sketchy, the willingness of the Indo-Pacific countries to join the initiative signals their intent for an economic engagement. Shorn of discussions on tariff reductions or market access the utility of the bloc is unclear. Devoid of clarity, it might be too early to speculate its larger implications and conjectures of whether IPEF will compete or coexist with RCEP.

Seeking global dominance, China is believed to have inexorably undermined global norms for trade and investment. The pillars of IPEF are pivoted on the aspects that China is accused of compromising with reckless abandon. Positioning the IPEF as an effort to salvage fair and inclusive trade policies, America has invariably engaged with Indo-Pacific countries that are reeling under large trade deficits with China.

Ostensibly, IPEF is an effort to reduce the over-dependence of countries on China and diversify and stabilise the supply chains. Apparently, while economic cooperation seems to be the defining feature of IPEF, the four pillars of IPEF have a major bearing on the security interests of a country. Monopolisation of raw materials, critical components, and technologies can destabilise production.

Disruption of critical supply chains like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals can pose grave national security implications. Diversification and stabilisation of supply chains through capacity building besides effectively insulating the countries can promote inclusive economic growth. In an effort to reposition and diversify supply chains Quad members India, Japan and Australia have founded Supply Chain Resilience Initiative. IPEF would complement these efforts.

IPEF’s promise of curbing unfair practices, minimising threats of cyber invasions and a clean economy will be hugely welcomed in the region dominated by China’s opaque trade practices. In 21st-century economics and security aspects work in tandem. Economic growth the key to prosperity bestows stability. The region dominated by Tiger Economies certainly understands the implications of better economic practices on the security and stability of the region.

At the height of covid pandemic the Quad engaged extensively with three Indo-Pacific countries- South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand supposedly to share best practices to combat virus and development of vaccines. This rather unusual extended teleconferencing has raised speculations of a possible Quad plus mechanism. Subsequently, these meetings extended to sharing technologies and discussions on economic recovery. Indeed, these dialogues might have sown the seeds and strengthened a case for evolving a coalition.

China’s belligerent tactics, arm-twisting economic policies, and the need for swift economic recovery amid global uncertainties might have propelled nations to seek alternatives. The collective objective to combat the shared challenges has stirred interest in the nations to join an initiative that promises a comprehensive and integrated approach.

IPEF brought together like-minded countries committed to establishing an inclusive, rules-based order and a conducive environment that can boost trade, commerce and investments. Xi Jinping’s China rejuvenation plan has birthed a coalition of nations willing to embrace the Quad agenda.

IPEF is an effort to shape the rules of trade and investment. With negotiations yet to begin, nations pinning hopes on market access for economic recovery would bargain hard. If America is found dragging its feet, this will be a huge setback and seriously dent its attempts to reclaim its dominant position in the region.

Unleashing an ambitious agenda for the region, the Quad has reignited a new hope of reviving the rules-based order among the Indo-Pacific nations. Demonstrating immense tenacity to expand and engage with agreeable nations, the Quad whose institutional existence was often ridiculed has emerged as a promising platform to lead a coalition. Does this mark genesis of an Indo-Pacific axis to oppose illiberal order? Time alone can answer…

 

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Quad Summit unveils a framework for new dimensions of cooperation

Even as Russian aggression continues to dominate the geopolitical conversations, Indo-Pacific with its strategic and geographical salience has turned into a ground for contestations. Turning focus away from the heated Eurasian front, reassuring allies President Biden made a five-day visit to South Korea and Japan, which hosted the Quad summit. The security situation of the region has become so perilous that the US spy planes flew over the Korean Peninsula twice ahead of the Biden’s visit amid reports of a likely ICBM testing by North Korea. 

Fixated on taking over its weakest enemy, the US thus far expended resources and energy on strengthening its trans-Atlantic alliance. Switching gears, intent on making some meaningful difference in the region which has tremendous geopolitical and economic heft, Biden attended the second in-person Quad summit in Tokyo.

Embroiled by China’s aggressive policies, a plausible Taiwan invasion, continuing Sino-India logjam, and an unabated missile testing by North Korea, Indo-Pacific has become a potential flashpoint. The formidable China challenge in the region has forced like-minded democratic countries to counter the hegemon. Beijing realizes this reality and therefore vehemently opposes the Quad. It firmly denounces the elevation of the geographical construct “Indo-Pacific” as opposed to the “Asia-Pacific” and always reserved its strident criticism towards the Quad.

Ahead of the Quad summit, at a press conference with Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto by his side Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi remarked, that the Indo-Pacific strategy is “bound to fail” as it is vigorously promoted by Washington to “contain” Beijing. He added, that the Indo-Pacific strategy “cooked up” by the US, in the name of “freedom and openness”, is keen on forming “cliques”… to “change China’s surrounding environment”. Its purpose is to contain China and make Asia-Pacific countries serve as “pawns” of the US hegemony¹.

Demolishing China’s contentious references to the Quad as “Asian NATO”, the Quad summit at Tokyo evolved a new framework for resilient cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Reinventing itself as a “force for good”, the Quad leaders holding a summit for the fourth time, gave a new directionality to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. The Quad 1.0 envisioned by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the aftermath of the 2014 tsunami was revived a decade later when the new incarnate Quad 2.0 attempted to condition itself as a new grouping with a purpose.

Despite major leadership changes, drawn together by an issue-based agenda of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” the member states- Australia, India, Japan, and the US made demonstrable progress. President Biden who largely disowned a majority of his predecessor’s policies reshaped the Quad. He summoned the first-ever virtual summit of Quad leaders in March 2021 and since then leaders held four meetings in a span of 14 months mirroring the burgeoning cohesiveness of the group.  

Contrary to the speculations of India’s softer stance on Russian aggression derailing the unity, putting differences at bay Quad countries focussed on an integrative approach to shaping the region and the world at large. Barring a passing reference to the alarming humanitarian due to “tragic conflict raging in Ukraine”, it was business as usual at the Quad. Recognizing the need for providing an institutional void, in the most happening region of the World, the revitalized Quad has set ambitious agenda to cater to the aspirations of the Indo-Pacific. The announcement of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) a day ahead of the Quad created quite a stir.

Thus far identified for unidimensional Malabar Naval exercises, trumping the skepticism over Quad’s strategic reality, the member states, which are democracies with pluralistic societies with similar structural aspects strongly reiterated support for the principles of freedom, rule of law, territorial integrity, UN charter and peaceful resolution of disputes. Condemning the use of force or unilateral attempts to change the status quo, underscored the need for freedom of navigation and overflight in East and South China for the peace and stability of the region. Ostensibly, true to its belligerent disposition, Chinese bombers flew nearby the Quad summit venue² demonstrating its discomfiture over the coming together of the key stakeholders of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

A stable Indo-Pacific region is crucial for global peace and prosperity. China’s bellicose policies and expansionism have impelled various countries and groups to evolve an Indo-Pacific strategy. The Quad underscored the centrality and unity of the ASEAN and reaffirmed support for the Pacific Islands Unity Forum, implementation of the ASEAN Outlook for the Indo-Pacific and welcomed the EU strategy for cooperation in the region.

China’s unilateral actions- reclamation and militarisation of disputed features in the South China Sea, instituting the ADIZ and new maritime law have steadily altered the regional balance. Now, China has fast-tracked a region-wide agreement on policing, security and data communication cooperation with Pacific Islands. Having failed to rein in China from clinching a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, the Quad is reiterating the need for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific more than ever. Interestingly, the US-driven Quad which has been vocal on the East and the South China Sea failed to make a mention of the ongoing Indo-China logjam.

In a similar vein, the Quad called for the implementation of the ASEAN Five Point Consensus for the Myanmar crisis and the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. Condemning the Mumbai and Pathankot attacks, the Quad denounced terror proxies perpetrating cross-border terrorism.  Underlining the need for upholding international standards in combatting the financing of terrorism Quad members collectively demand that Afghan territory must never be used to shelter or train or threaten or attack any country.

At the first virtual summit of the Quad leaders, three working groups on Climate change, vaccines, and critical and emerging technologies was launched. Three more working groups on cybersecurity, infrastructure and space were added to the list at the first in-person Quad summit in Washington in September 2021.  Quad has pledged delivery of 1 billion covid vaccine doses by the end of this year and thus far, the group has delivered 670 million doses. Indo-Pacific countries Cambodia and Thailand were among the recipients of Made in India vaccines. With Quad expanding the arenas of cooperation, delivery would be key to earning confidence and trust.

At the height of the pandemic Quad engaged with other like-minded countries in the region and the US held the first Global Covid -19 Summit. As members of the Group of Friends of UHC (Universal Health Coverage) Quad evinced interest in reforming the global health architecture for enhancing PPR (Pandemic Prevention Preparedness and Response), committed $542 million to the next phase of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness for Innovation (CEPI) and coordinating efforts through “COVID-19 Prioritised Global Action Plan for Enhanced Engagement (GAP)” and COVAX Vaccine Delivery Partnership³.

The Indo-Pacific region with immense potential for growth and infrastructure assistance can drive productivity and prosperity. China’s opaque infrastructure initiatives have pushed several countries into a “Debt trap”. There is a dire need for a sustainable and transparent infrastructure initiative to meet the requirements of developing countries in the region. Quad announced $50 billion towards infrastructure investment over the next five years.  The US has thus far envisioned and launched Build Back Better World (BBBW) and Blue Dot Network (BDN) as a counter to China’s BRI. Apart from infrastructure BBBW includes aspects like -health care, digital technologies, climate, and gender equality. While the initiatives are in infancy, the US is yet to develop an ambitious partnership and prove its implementation capabilities. Indeed, to promote debt sustainability and transparency, Quad plans to have a “Quad Debt Management Resource Portal” in close collaboration with finance authorities.

Expanding the scope of the climate change programs, countries launched Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Program (Q-CHAMP) which includes green shipping and ports for building a green corridor framework; Climate information services for Pacific Island countries that are disaster-prone, building climate-resilient infrastructure through Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). To strengthen collaboration to effectively respond to disasters, Quad members announced the establishment of the “Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR)”. To combat the menace of illegal fishing and China’s covert maritime aggression Quad launched -the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) which works in coordination with Indo-Pacific countries and regional Information Fusion Centres. Besides promoting maritime domain awareness, IPMDA would effectively monitor the Chinese Naval and maritime militia activities.

Cognizant of cyber vulnerabilities, bolstering Quad Cybersecurity Partnership, Quad partners plan to initiate the first-ever Quad Cybersecurity Day. Pandemic has exposed chinks in the existing global supply chains as many countries reeled under the shortage of semiconductors. Realising the need to leverage complementary strengths, Quad has launched the Common Statement of Principles on Critical Technology Supply Chains to advance cooperation on semiconductors and other critical technologies. Cooperation in advanced technologies besides propelling economic growth can offer a new window of opportunities for a country like India.

Strengthening the cooperation in digital technologies, Quad plans to advance interoperability and security through new a Memorandum of Cooperation on 5G Supplier Diversification and Open RAN. Enhancing space cooperation “Quad Satellite Data Portal” that aggregates the Earth observation data was unveiled. To foster people-to-people ties, the bedrock for robust ties, Quad officially launched Quad Fellowship for students in STEM fields.

Quad members have fashioned out a framework of cooperation that can collectively mitigate the challenges posed by China in the region. The effectiveness of the Quad as a major strategic player will be determined by the seriousness of intent, timely implementation and a long-term commitment of the countries.  But somewhere in their quest for fostering robust ties and seamless collaboration on non-traditional issues, while the Tokyo summit made the right noises, the core aspect of the security of the Indo-Pacific has been sacrificed.  Having unleashed an ambitious vision for the region, the Quad will be judged for its delivery.

China has upended the regional balance with its unilateral and provocative actions and changed the status quo of the region. Instead of directly taking the illiberal hegemonic power to task, the Tokyo summit chose to “advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness and competitiveness of (our) economies”. Through this initiative, the Quad aims to “contribute to cooperation, stability, prosperity, development and peace within the region”.  The Tokyo Summit made a good beginning in terms of giving a massive fillip to the Indo-Pacific strategy. By toning down on the security aspect, the quintessential attribute of providing security by the Quad has been lost.

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Why are non-Abrahamic Victims Mocked at

Why has it become so inconvenient to accept certain facts though they stare in the face? Why is that certain voices are still muffled in India and denied a reconciliation? Why is that history with an agenda was pushed down the throat despite the primary, secondary sources and the local history having a completely contrary story to say? Why is it that even after centuries of subjugation, independent India is disallowed to write its own civilisation story based on the facts and well-preserved firmans? Why is a section of a society wary of the truth?

Indeed, a manifestation of this reluctance to face the reality was first witnessed by the entire nation, when the court-directed survey of the Gyanvapi complex was opposed tooth and nail by a section of the society. Denied the right to pray, five women filed a petition in August 2021 seeking to worship the deities of Shringar Gauri, Bhagwan Ganesha, Bhagwan Hanuman and Nandi regularly. Additionally, they appealed that the statues inside the complex are not harmed. The court ordered a videography survey of the complex towards the end of April.  

A survey of the Gynavapi complex has brought to fore some inconvenient truths tacitly kept under wraps. Interestingly, while every minute detail of the complex has been recorded in meticulous detail in books the historical records which were like thorns in the flesh were conveniently buried. The recorded history was subsequently supplanted with academic works that totally whitewashed these incidents.

The white-washed history which served as a vital academic tool was extensively used to peddle a narrative while the local history which is passed over from generations and the physical structures revealed truth to every discerning eye. Indeed, every Indian who has his ear to the ground knew about the journey of the Gyanvapi complex. A deliberate attempt to inject a mosque onto the walls of the temples is clearly visible. But then a section of the community fiercely contested this. Disinclined to stir a communal pogrom for decades, the aggrieved party waited for a day of peaceful reconciliation.

Indian history replete with foreign invasions and inhumane plunder of civilisational wealth is a well-known fact. Though the liberals continue to justify these attacks, especially on the temples through creative theories, the decimation of the native civilisations by the Abrahamics across the world is an indisputably established fact. Every trace of the pagan culture has been successfully wiped off by the Abrahamics. Right from aborigines in Australia, Aztecs and Incas, Egyptians, Greeks, Romans to the Persian civilisation abutting the boundaries of Indian-subcontinent, indigenous people were subjugated and all their civilisational symbols were annihilated. By and large, the faith of indigenous people who worship nature, mountains, rivers, trees, animals, feminine and masculine aspects of deities referred to as “pagan culture” were largely stamped out by Abrahamics.

India is the oldest surviving indigenous culture that has withstood the onslaught of these attacks. The inexorable quest for vanquishing the natives, an undeniable attribute of the Abrahamics was very well recorded by the Muslim scholars themselves. Works of Turkic and the Arab travelers who recorded acts of plunder and desecration of temples with aplomb, and the generous epithets showered on the idol breakers unmistakably hint at the zealotry and fanaticism of the Islamic invaders.

After independence, though efforts to chronicle these events were thwarted by a secular government, independent scholars still painstakingly compiled attacks on temples. Sita Ram Goel’s- Hindu Temples: What happened to them? puts together details of around 40,000 temples which were either converted to Mosques or other Islamic structures, demolished without a trace of existence and some used as materials for building Mosques.

The Gyanvapi Mosque which is erected over the walls of Kashi Vishwanath Temple, considered as the most sacred of the Jyotirlingas stands out for the sheer humiliation that it seeks to evoke. Indeed, the same template was replicated in the Keshava Dev Temple, the Sri Krishna Janamasthan at Mathura. With the very places that symbolise the centuries of faith, timelessness of the civilisation still shackled in the chains of subjugation, how can wounds of the centuries of humiliation be ever healed?

A wounded civilisation can never aspire to be a superpower. The pride and self-esteem in civilisational roots can alone drive a nation to occupy its coveted place in the World. It is incumbent on the people to reclaim their civilisational identities to transcend transgenerational trauma and throes of the centuries of subjugation.

Unfortunately, the Academica and the liberals which are overwhelmingly considerate towards the suffering of the Abrahamics deny the centuries of oppression of the non-Abrahamics. The classic indifference to the pain of the Hindus and abject mockery of their faith and civilisation flooded the social media in the aftermath of the discovery of the Shivling the Gyanvapi complex testimonies to the same.

Media corps and liberal academic corps who steered the Black Lives Matter and supported defacement, defiling and pulling of all symbols and statues of racism and slavery didn’t bat an eyelid when Hindus are striving to reclaim their places of worship. Their unflinching support for the rights of desecrators is not only puzzling but hypocritical. Indeed, the liberals of the West who jumped in to rewrite the history to put an end to racial injustice suffered by the Africa-Americans are denying the Hindustheir right to reclaim and conserve the remnants of their civilisation.

Justifying the atrocities of the invaders, Hindus right to worship is now sacrilegiously labelled as fascism or majoritarianism. Even as the centuries of the brutality continue to stare in face, they are expected to forget centuries of atrocities suffered and genocide endured. While symbols of invasions, oppression and imperialism are pulled down across every nook and corner of the world to facilitate reconciliation, Hindus are forced to still live through the centuries of gory past. They are expected to maintain a status quo. Even as Holocaust victims are empathised and monuments are erected pledging to never allow any such incident to occur and to immortalize their pain, Hindus who went through barbaric episodes of ethnic cleansing are denied of their lived reality.

Indeed, this despicable insensitivity was out in theopen when they refused to even acknowledge the presence of Shivling and began denigrating their aastha with impunity that reeked of visceral hate. Abominable hate that refused to empathise and sought to rake old wounds. Across the board, the native civilisations had to face such deprecation. Humans embrace different religions, ideologies but humanity and empathy are the connecting bonds that keep people together.

But the intransigence of a section towards Hindu efforts to reclaim sites of faith can potentially throw a scanner into the touted bhaichara. Across the world, there is a new awakening among the indigenous who are standing up to reclaim their history. This resurgence which is now palpable among Hindus is now rebuked. To stem this tide, liberals and academia are indirectly castigating Hindus and terming Hindutva as fundamentalist. Clearly, the burgeoning Hinduphobia and Hindumisia is an attempt to silence this revivalism among Hindus.

Obscurantist posturing of Abrahamics by seeking refuge in the whitewashed history can harden the Hindu stance and breed conflict. An open discussion and acknowledgment of facts can offer an amicable solution. More than ever, a sincere apology to the wounded civilisation can go a long way in boosting the self-esteem of this inherently pluralist civilisation. The persistent dogged “my way or the high way” approach can be suicidal.

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Modi’s Soft Power Diplomacy at Play

Came across a viral WhatsApp forward of mega block bluster movie, Pushpa song played on European streets. This trend which was unimaginable a few decades ago is now a reality. Thanks to globalisation, the dissemination of “culture, values and policies” are transgressing boundaries in this interconnected world. In terms of International Relations, the significance of this- triad of culture, values and policies which constitute the soft power is now widely acclaimed. Underscoring the importance of this triad, scholars like Joseph Nye Jr, postulated – “Soft power diplomacy”, and envisioned alternate statecraft that is devoid of the use of military assets. Understandably, the soft power comprised all aspects except military and economic power.

In short, all the intangible resources that can aid in agenda-setting and realise policy goals constitute the soft power assets. India has numerous soft power assets.  Since assuming power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been actively using these assets to shape foreign policy objectives. By pro-actively deploying these assets, Modi is increasingly creating awareness about India’s ideological perspectives which is inclusive and legitimate to generate goodwill and respect in the global arena. Unlike the hard power that coerces and intimidates, soft power attempts to persuade countries to do something. Though soft power takes a very long time, it is one of the most effective means of accomplishing desired objectives.

Blessed with an incredible heritage, culture and civilisational strengths, India is endowed with a panoply of assets to promote its national interests. In this conflict-ridden world, amid the burgeoning geopolitical uncertainties, resurgence of revisionist powers, while hard power can exacerbate the existing fissures, persuasive soft power can be highly effective in realising foreign policy goals. Having bequeathed an illustrious national culture, Modi has been parallelly marshalling the hard power and soft power assets as required to enhance its global stature.

Shifting focus to diaspora, multicultural ethos like Buddhism, Sufism, attributes like non-violence, tolerance, diversity, pluralism, diverse languages, traditional wealth such as Ayurveda, Yoga, civilisational connect of Ramayana, Mahabharata, spiritual movements etc, Modi government displayed a vigour to pursue a soft power policy. India shares a common thread of religion, culture, civilisation with its immediate neighbourhood. Since the 1990s a latent tendency to use soft power has been witnessed. But the kind of rigour and conviction to unleash it as a policy has been missing for decades.

India that is Bharat, considered as a land of knowledge, has been a treasure trove. Much of the wisdom coded in our Vedas and Upanishads replete of universal values and encapsulated diversity largely was never channelised to bolster India as a global soft power. Since 2014, the Modi government has been instrumental in popularising the noble concepts scripted in Upanishads “vasudaivakutumbakam” (the world is one family) which is found in the Maha Upanishad and has become one of the popular paradigms to define the ideological positioning of India on global platforms. Similarly, the peace mantra from Brihadaranyaka Upanishad “sarve bhavantu sukinah, sarve santu niramaya” (May all be healthy; May all be free from illness) became the tagline of India’s Vaccine Maitri program and “ekam sat vipra bahuda vadanti” (there one truth the learned call it by many names) from Mundaka Upanishad, has been generously quoted to reiterate India’s celebration of diversity.

Indeed, in the past eight years, Modi has conscientiously accentuated multiple attributes of India. Designation of June 21^st as International Yoga Day is a recognition to India’s knowledge system, emergence of Ayurveda as a viable alternative especially during the pandemic and culminating in the establishment of WHO Global Centre for Traditional Medicine demonstrated Modi government’s focus on cultivation of soft power.

Striking a right balance between the soft power and hard power and shedding the recalcitrance to use cultural diplomacy, Modi began to reshape foreign policy with soft tools. Contrastingly, while China continued to sweep the World with its “charm offensive” by setting up hundreds of Confucius Institutions, having underutilised and under cultivated soft power tools, India failed to get its due at various global forums.

Unabashedly flaunting the religious and cultural identity of India, Modi ensured that the Indian identity finds a place in the larger realm of bilateral relationships as well. The case in point has been PM Modi attending the Ganga Aarti alongside Japan President Shinzo Abe at Banaras and a brief visit to Swaminarayana Akshardham temple in New Delhi with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Aside the quintessential interactions with the Indian Diaspora, a visit to Hindu Temples have been an integral part of PM Modi’s itinerary.

On his foreign travel to Oman, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal, Modi visited famous Hindu temples and prayed at Gurudwara in Tehran; Buddhist Monasteries in Bhutan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka driving home the message of India’s veneration towards all religions- Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism that originated in the country.

Invoking the shared cultural connect, Modi visited Sri Lanka in May 2017 as the chief guest for International Vesak Day, which marks the birth, enlightenment and demise of Buddha to resuscitate traditional ties. Giving a fillip to cultural ties and connectivity, Modi announced the launch of direct Air India flights between Varanasi and Colombo. Varanasi, (Sarnath) is the place where Buddha first delivered his sermon. Bolstering the cultural connect, Modi also prayed at the golden-roofed famous Kandy temple where the tooth relic of Buddha was preserved. Unveiling a bus service between Janakpuri in Nepal to Ayodhya in India, Modi ambitiously integrated Nepal into the Ramayana Circuit. Additionally, Modi has allocated funds for the development of Pashupati Nath Temple and the construction of dharmshala for pilgrims.

In a marked departure from the reluctance of earlier leadership to honour the legacies integral to India, the Modi government adopted a strategic approach towards soft power resources. In 2015, then EAM Sushma Swaraj delivered a keynote address at the 16^th World Sanskrit Conference held in Bangkok in Sanskrit and underlined the contemporary importance of the ancient language. Thwarting the criticism of Modi’s Hindu leanings, India revitalised ties with Central Asia on the strength of shared Islamic Heritage.

Bolstering the cultural connect, Modi travelled to Lumbini, in Nepal, the birth place of Buddha on the eve of Buddha Jayanti to perform shilanyas of India International Centre for Buddhist Culture and Heritage. UPA government in 2011, expressed interest to develop Lumbini given its cultural and strategic importance. Lumbini is very close to Indian border. With China making fresh inroads into the Himalayan country, India mooted this plan. While India dilly-dallied, China announced $3 billion project to develop Lumbini. Motivated by political interests, China built an airport at Lumbini and announced a rail connecting Tibet to Nepal passing through Lumbini.

 A decade later, PM Modi laid foundation for a Net Zero Emission state of art India’s Buddhist Centre in Nepal joining countries like Thailand, Vietnam, US, China, Myanmar, Japan, South Korea and others. Reinforcing India’s centuries old cultural connect, Modi travelled to Lumbini from Kushinagar in Bihar and landed at a helipad in Lumbini to deliberately avoid touching down at the airport built by China. Kushinagar is the place where Buddha attained nirvana. Along the lines of Ramayana Circuit, Modi government which has launched Buddhist circuit in 2016 with plans to develop prominent sites- Bodh Gaya, Nalanda, Rajgir, Vaishali, Sarnath, Shravasti, Kushinagar, Kaushambi, Sankisa and Kapilavastu¹ is keen on including Lumbini as a prominent stop.

At a time when India-Nepal ties are roiled by territorial disputes and mistrust, before embarking for Nepal, PM Modi said, “Our ties with Nepal are unparalleled. The civilisational and people to people contacts between India and Nepal form the enduring edifice of our close relationship. My visit is intended to celebrate and further deepen these time-honoured linkages that have been fostered through centuries and recorded in our long history of inter-mingling”.

Lighting lamps near Ashoka pillar adjacent to Maya Devi Temple and post foundation laying ceremony performed by leaders of Theravada, Mahayana and Vajrayana traditions, Prime Ministers of both countries unveiled the model of the Indian centre. Addressing a large gathering of monks and dignitaries, Modi said, “From Sarnath, Bodh Gaya, and Kushinagar in India to Lumbini in Nepal, these holy places symbolise our shared heritage and shared values. We have to develop this heritage together and enrich it further. This common heritage, common culture, common faith and common love, this is our greatest asset. The richer this asset is, the more effectively together we can bring the message of Lord Buddha to the world and give direction to the World…the ever-strengthening friendship of India and Nepal and our closeness will serve the benefit of the entire humanity”².

Having said, “Our Ram is also incomplete without Nepal” at Janakpur, Modi assured support to power generation projects in Nepal. Leaders held bilateral talks as a follow up of discussions on April 2^nd to strengthen cooperation in trade, development, energy and connectivity partnerships. Countries signed six MoUs, of which five agreements are on collaborative Buddhist studies and construction of hydropower project Arun-4 by Sutlej Jal Vikas Nigam (SJVN)³. Leaders agreed to establish sister cities’ relationship between Kushinagar and Lumbini.

For all its invaluable soft power assets, India failed to develop influential institutions which could make a dent in global public opinion. Besides, a lackadaisical approach, the absence of persistent efforts has pushed India down the ladder against China, which has built a global brand value. Indian Council for Cultural Relations has been no match to the astounding number of China’s Confucius Institutes that mushroomed across the globe.

But China’s aggressive posturing has irrevocably tattered its projected image of peaceful rise. In the face of rising revisionism and authoritarian regimes, while the importance of hard power is highly rated, Modi is carefully leveraging soft power to enhance India’s global standing. Consistently underscoring the democratic credentials, Modi is trying to reinvigorate India’s identity by harnessing our country’s civilisational values.

Alongside enhancing the hard power, the Modi government is striving to ameliorate India’s global image by employing soft power advantages. Through sustained efforts, Modi has been shaping India’s soft power imagery. More than ever, the political dispensation is confident of building India as a global soft power. The cumulative efforts to project its ancient cultural, religious and civilisational connect attest to the same.

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2nd India-Nordic Summit Nurtures a Blossoming Partnership

Contrary to the public perception of the Ukraine crisis driving wedge between India and Europe, India’s stance brought them together. Instead of adopting “one size fits all”, India is now gradually carving an agenda for different geographies in the Europe- Baltics, Balkans, British Isles, Caucasus, Alpine countries, Nordic Countries, diversifying its engagement with regional stake holders. India unveiled its first major outreach with the Nordic countries- Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland in 2018. The first Indo-Nordic Summit held in Sweden gave a major fillip to India’s steadfast engagement with Nordics.

The second leg of Modi’s Europe bilateral visit to Denmark also included a significant engagement with Nordic leaders under the auspices of the 2^nd Indo-Nordic Summit. Other than India, the US is the only country with which Nordics have summit level meetings. Though India had established diplomatic ties with the Nordics after independence, relations were marred by misunderstandings. For long India eschewed robust diplomatic ties with Nordics hailed for their exemplar sustainable development and innovative technologies.

Purulia arms dropping case in 1995 and subsequent refusal of Denmark government to extradite Kim Davy has implacably dented the bilateral ties which remained frozen till 2010. Ties revived after Denmark revoked the decision. By scripting a Strategic Green Partnership during Denmark Prime Minister Matte Fredriksen’s visit to India in October 2021, countries laid foundation for an enduring partnership.

In a rare display of bonhomie, Prime Minister Fredriksen not only received PM Modi at the airport but took him on a private tour of Marienborg, her residence. After holding bilateral talks, both leaders attended a forum of India-Denmark Business leaders. PM Modi invited Danish companies to take advantage of India’s enormous opportunities in areas like green technologies, cold chains, waste to wealth, shipping and ports¹.

Reviewing the comprehensive green strategic partnership, leaders held discussions on post-pandemic recovery, climate change, energy diversification, sustainable development, digitalisation, green shipping, skill development, clean water supply in urban and rural areas. India and Denmark launched “India Green Finance Initiative” and energy policy dialogue to accelerate green growth and job creation. India agreed to join Danish International Centre for Antimicrobial Resistance Solutions (ICARS) as Mission Partner². Leaders witnessed the exchange of seven agreements which included- Declaration of Intent (DoI) on Migration and Mobility; Letter of Intent (LoI) on shipping, clean water, Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) in the field of animal husbandry and dairying and a MoU on Skill development³.

Shoring up outreach with Nordic countries, PM Modi and the leaders of the Nordic countries kicked off the 2^nd Indo-Nordic Summit at Copenhagen. Rated as the best societies in terms of freedom of speech, religion, media, gender quality and human development index (HDI), Nordics by far have excelled in renewable energy generation, developing environment friendly technologies and are regarded as shining examples of post modernization.

India and Nordics have huge complementarities and share common features like democracy, equal opportunities for all people, adherence to rules-based international order and are open market economies. The individual economies of these countries are much smaller, together they account for a combined GDP of $1.6 trillion and the bilateral trade with India in goods and services accounts for $13 billion. India stands to gain from collaborating with Nordics who are leaders in global innovation and climate technology and seek to explore these applications to her flagship programs like Make in India, Start Up India, Digital India, Skill India and Swacch Bharat Abhiyan.

Among the Nordic countries Sweden, Finland and Denmark are part of EU. Iceland, Denmark, Norway are NATO members. In the aftermath of Ukraine crisis, Sweden and Finland are in talks to join NATO. Despite their western alignment, Nordics are known to be peace-mongers and have been on the forefront of facilitating peace processes.

Invariably, the summit started with a discussion on international peace and security, crisis in Ukraine, multilateral cooperation and emphasised the need for immediate reforms in UNSC and WTO. Firmly supporting the rules-based order, countries recognised the need for multilateral cooperation for building open, inclusive and accountable societies. Nordics have supported India’s permanent membership to UNSC. Iceland was one the first Nordic countries to support India’s candidature for a permanent seat in UNSC.

Climate agenda has been another focus area of discussion. Leaders contemplated on collaboration in environment sustainability including clean water, clean air and circular economy to maintain and support biodiversity, water and wild life, which is the basis for food security, human health and prosperity.

Leaders underscored the importance of Blue Economy in delivering economic growth, new jobs, improved nutrition and increased food security. As leading Ocean countries, India and Nordics agreed on exchanging good practices and technology transfers to transform the shipping industry to reduce the carbon foot print. They welcomed business cooperation and investments in maritime, marine especially Sagarmala projects and offshore wind sectors. Countries also agreed to obey the historic resolution of establishing a legally binding treaty to end plastic pollution by 2024 taken at the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) 5.2 at Nairobi⁴.

Emphasising the importance of green technologies, at the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit, India and Sweden launched an initiative- the Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT) which is supported by World Economic Forum (WEF). It aims to brings together countries and companies that are committed to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Towards an effective climate action, India and Nordics agreed to support LeadIT for a green transition.

Nordics are important stakeholders of the Artic region and members of the Arctic Council. India secured observer status at the council in 2013. Since the inauguration of first station Himadri at Svalbard, Norway in 2008, India has sent 13 expeditions and runs 23 active projects in the region. Global warming led to the meltdown of the ice caps in the Arctic which has opened up new vistas for oil exploration, tourism and scientific research. Arctic is now making significant impact on the geopolitics as well. India is not new to the region. UK signed the Svalbard agreement in 1920. By virtue of being ruled by the UK, British India has been signatory of the agreement.

Reviving its Arctic strategy, India unveiled a new draft of its Arctic policy in January 2021. Giving a fresh impetus to its aspirations, India is now exploring opportunities for increased cooperation with Nordics in the Arctic on polar research, climate and environmental issues.

Post Nordic summit, Modi held in-person meetings with leaders of Nordic countries. Nurturing the relations with Finland, Modi having held virtual summit with his Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin in March 2021 reviewed implementation of the outcomes of the summit. Sustainability, digitalisation and cooperation in science and technology have been important pillars of Indo-Finnish partnership. Finnish products are in high demand in India. Over 100 Finnish companies operate in India. Modi invited Finnish companies to partner with Indian counterparts in telecom infrastructure and digital transformation⁵.

Celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties, PM Modi and his Iceland counterpart, Katrin Jakobsdottir, discussed ways to strengthen cooperation in sectors of geothermal energy (an area of special expertise of Iceland), blue economy, Arctic, renewable energy, fisheries, food processing and education⁶.

Innovation, technology, investment, research and development are bedrock of India-Sweden relationship. Besides reviewing progress made on the Joint Action Plan signed during the 1^st India-Nordic summit, PM Modi and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson acknowledged the progress of LeadIT initiative and discussed the possibility of deepening cooperation in trade, innovation, climate technology, climate action, green hydrogen, space, defence, civil aviation, Arctic, polar research and sustainable mining⁷.

PM Modi who met his Norwegian counterpart Jonas Gahr Store for the first time discussed about deepening engagement in Blue Economy, renewable energy, fisheries, shipping, solar and wind projects, water management, rainwater harvesting, space cooperation, health and culture along the sidelines of 2^nd India-Nordic Summit⁸.

For decades, despite the complementarities, varied perception of values and virtues and the symptomatic pontification of human rights and categorisation of India’s democracy as chaotic has contributed to the disconnect between India and the Nordics. But PM Modi rebooted relations by recalibrating the strategic calculus through prioritised high-level Indian presidential visits to the region. Eventually these visits reciprocated by the Nordic counterparts infused a fresh momentum in the bilateral ties. Charting actionable blue prints and frameworks, India steadily crystallised partnerships.

Though Nordics enjoy an exceptionally ascendant trade trajectory with China, Beijing’s predatory chafes have dissuaded these countries from collective engagement. In comparison to the Dragon, India’s trade with Nordics is miniscule. India’s commitment to democratic principles, pluralism, diversity, tolerance and accommodation has ostensibly brought these two Sides together. Further India’s law-abiding demeanour in maritime delimitation with Bangladesh, has earned plaudits from the Nordics seeding the inauguration of first edition of India-Nordic summit. 

India’s resilience, people-centric governance milieu, climate action agenda, renewed push for green energy and its relentless pursuit for sustainable development and higher growth embracing advanced technologies had found congruence with the Nordics. Ahead of western peers in harnessing innovative technologies, placed at higher tier of development, India’s pitch for climate adaptation and diversified mix of energies offers numerous opportunities for the Nordics for investment and collaboration. Projected to become third largest economy by 2030, Nordics are gravitating towards India.

Trouncing the historical trepidations, misunderstandings that encumbered India’s Nordic outreach, Modi has laid a firm foundation for a holistic partnership. The 2^nd India-Nordic summit has admirably nurtured this blossoming partnership.

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Modi and Macron Chart Out the Next Phase in Bilateral Relations

Fresh from pulling a spectacular victory in the recent Presidential elections, Macron hosted his first foreign leader visit for the term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Underscoring the “premier” Indo-French strategic partnership, Modi who cultivated an excellent personal chemistry with French President Emmanuel Macron arrived at Elysee Palace becoming the first world leader to personally congratulate him. Expectedly, a warm congratulatory symbolic Modi’s “personalised diplomacy” evinced a deep trust and an exceptional friendship.

On the final leg of his three-day Europe visit, Modi travelled to France for a brief working visit to review bilateral ties. India and France enjoy excellent bilateral relations and their strategic convergence is rooted to their fundamental conviction in a strategic autonomy and multipolar world. Being the leading power in Europe and rising power in Indo-Pacific, France and India are well placed to playing a major role in the ongoing geopolitical recalibration.

Despite different opinions on the Ukraine issue which is characteristically finds place in the Joint Statement, where France “reiterated strong condemnation of unlawful and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine by Russian forces”, the meeting was marked by clear and broader understanding on each other’s positions on Ukraine. Leaders unequivocally condemned the civilian deaths, called for cessation of hostilities and advocated dialogue and diplomacy. Both countries have committed to enabling coordinated and multilateral response to aggravated crisis due to the Ukraine conflict through initiatives like FARM (Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission)¹.

The partnership bolstered by the Joint Strategic Vision for Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Joint Strategic Vision in space signed in 2018, leaders have now added new vistas of cooperation. With Space becoming the new arena for contestation, India and France are launching strategic dialogue on space issues to bring together experts from military, research and administration to discuss economic and security challenges of outer space. The first dialogue will be held this year. This development comes close on heels after Russia and China vowed to deepen space cooperation.

To address the challenges of 21^st century, countries stepped up cooperation in cyber security agencies for an open, free and secure cyberspace and agreed to upgrade bilateral cyber dialogue. Further, building on the Indo-French roadmap on cyber security and digital technology, coountries plan to deepen cooperation on exascale technology (capable of computing a billion billion calculations per second (10¹⁸)), making of supercomputers in India and working towards secure 5G/6G telecom systems.

India is making rapid strides in building open public digital infrastructure. In recognition of New Delhi’s digitalisation for global good, France invited India as the First Country of the Year at this year’s edition of Vivatech, Europe’s largest digital fair in Paris.

Construction of six submarines in line with “Make in India’, pertinent transfer of technology and timely delivery of Rafales are testimony of mutual trust between two countries. Taking the buyer-seller relationship to a next level, countries are intent on developing synergy in defence and long-standing armament cooperation to the next level. To make India self-reliant in defence, France is exploring ways for deeper involvement in “Atmanirbhar Bharat” efforts in defence sector. This includes joint collaboration in advance defence technology, manufacturing and exports. France can be an effective ideal defence partner, since it doesn’t supply weapons to Indian adversaries like China and Pakistan.

Besides the existing joint exercises Shakti, Varuna, Pegase, Desert Knight, Garuda which illustrate efforts towards better integration and interoperability, countries are now seeking to ramp up maritime cooperation through joint endeavours in the Indian Ocean Region. 93% of France’s Exclusive Economic Zone through its overseas territories- Reunion, Mayotte, Scattered Islands, French Southern and Antarctica territories, New Caledonia, Wallis and Fatuna, French Polynesia, Clipperton, Tromelin and Iles Eparses are in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This region is home to 1.5 million French people and 8000 soldiers². Thus, France is a very important stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific region. Given the burgeoning geopolitical and geoeconomics importance of the region, France is building robust with India, central to this region.

Despite the Ukraine crisis, to insulate the Indo-Pacific from the consequences of these conflicts, France hosted first Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum meeting at Paris during its presidency of Council of EU and launched EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. To promote stable, open, rules-based international order, France has invited India onboard for the Indo-Pacific Ministerial forum held in February.

At the forum, India and France jointly launched “Indo-Pacific Parks Partnership” which aims to build expertise from the partners in the region in terms of sustainable management of protected areas and natural parks. During the current meeting, countries expressed interest to support the Intergovernmental Conference on an international legally binding instrument under UNCLOS for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) to ensure protection of high seas.

After the AUKUS agreement, France’s ties with Australia suffered with Canberra pulling plug on the submarine deal. Since then, India became a key partner for France in the Indo-Pacific region. Indian standoff at the Himalayan border and Beijing’s growing footprint in the Indian Ocean are serious security threats. France too shares similar concerns due to China’s muscular expansionism in the Indo-Pacific. To counter Chinese aggressiveness and its formidable claim to the superpower status and bipolar World, France is forging maritime partnerships with major actors in the Indo-Pacific. To maintain a semblance of stability in the region, India and France are deepening their collaboration on several fronts.

Indo-French bilateral ties spanning decades are a testimony to enduring faith. France, a permanent member of UNSC with the power Veto like Russia, blocked unfriendly moves by other unfriendly powers and supported India post-abrogation of article 370 and backed UNSC resolutions against Masood Azhar. Other than Russia, France is only country which has agreed to sell nuclear reactors to India. World’s largest nuclear plant at Jaitapur is now getting ready with French collaboration in Maharashtra.

Like India, France faces the onslaught of terrorism. Stating that counterterrorism is cornerstone of Indo-French strategic cooperation, countries expressed willingness to cooperate in the run up to the third edition of “No Money for Terror” international conference to be held in India this year. No Money for Terror is organised by Finance Intelligence Units of over 100 countries jointly called the Egmont Group. India and France are part of this global effort that fights terror financing.

Seven years since the launch of International Solar Alliance (ISA) by India and France at the Paris Climate Summit, India has invited France to join the Green Hydrogen Hub under its National Hydrogen Mission.

Modi-Macron meeting which comes at a crucial juncture in geopolitical realm discussed issues of cardinal interest as well. With France holding the rotating presidency of EU, Modi apprised Macron for the launch of the India-EU Trade and Technology Council and the restart of the India-EU agreements on Trade, Investment and Geographical Indicators. India also sought cooperation in deepening India-EU strategic partnership and implementation of India-EU connectivity partnership. While there isn’t any reference to this in the Joint Statement, leaders might have also shared their assessments of the Sino-Russian axis and EU’s turbulent ties with China.

Modi’s visit on May 5^th has been his 10^th bilateral visit to France and comes two days ahead of Macron’s official swearing in ceremony as President for his second term. Gearing for a new term, as Macron pledges to unveil new reforms to handle unprecedented challenges in the World, Modi has rightly renewed the strength and trust in the bilateral.

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India and Germany reorient partnership on congruencies

Modi’s first overseas visit this year to Germany is marked with many firsts. Modi’s first telephonic conversation with any foreign leader this year was with German Chancellor Scholz and this edition of India-Germany Inter Governmental Consultation (ICG) was the first in person meeting between both the leaders. In 2011, India and Germany commenced biennial ICGs. Thus far, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Coalition led by Angela Merkel headed all the five editions of ICG. The 6^th ICG co-chaired by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the new coalition government of social democrats, Greens and Free Democrats, had given ICG a renewed reorientation as anticipated. In fact, India and Indo-Pacific found a mention in the tripartite coalition deal reflecting the growing importance of India in German foreign policy¹.

In fact, Germany has initiated the ICG invitation during the Ukraine crisis which was delayed from 2021. Delivering Chancellor’s message, his foreign policy and security advisor Jens Plotner arrived in India on March 31^st to lay ground for the Indo-German engagement. Poltner, who is effectively the national security advisor said, “While Germany would welcome having India in “our camp” on Ukraine crisis, there is an understanding in Berlin about the challenges and constraints New Delhi is grappling with in a complicated neighbourhood”², straying away from the customary pontification of India. Importing 55% of gas, 42% of oil and coal, Germany’s energy dependence on Russia is a matter of debate in West.

Given then strong dependencies, India and Germany are averse to isolating Russia. Though Germany has sided with the West, it is reluctant to impose sanctions and curb its engagement with Russia. India shares similar predicament as Russian weapons dominate its military. Ukraine crisis jolted Europe. Shedding a nonchalant approach Germany announced plans to beef up defence security. Public perception dominated the view that Germany would persuade Modi to change his stance on Ukraine. Standing his ground, in response to Scholz’s remarks of Russia having violated the UN charter by attacking Ukraine, Modi insisted that dialogue is the only way to resolve the dispute.

Modi said, “We believe that there will be no winning party in this war, everyone will suffer. Oil prices are sky rocketing.. there is also shortage of food grains and fertilisers… but its impact on developing and poor countries will be even more serious”³. Baring a parsimonious mention of Ukraine crisis that made up for the sound bites at the press meet and reiteration of Germany’s strong condemnation of “the unlawful and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine by Russian forces” in the Joint Statement⁴, both countries were on same page on providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and cessation of hostilities. Putting rest to debate on G7 invitation to India, Scholz invited Modi for the summit.

Signing of Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) on Green and Sustainable Development partnership, leaders bestowed a new defining paradigm for Indo-German Strategic Partnership. Germany extended Euro 10 billion till 2030 to fund India’s Green Projects under public, private and PPP ventures. Notably, unlike other countries India displayed fervent conviction towards Climate Action rather than Climate Change and firmly adhered to her climate pledges.

Under the umbrella of Green and Sustainable Development Partnership, countries signed a JDI and laid out Indo-German Green Hydrogen Road map under the auspices of Indo-German Hydrogen Task Force supported by Indo-German Energy Forum (IGEF) launched in 2006. With a focus on innovative solar energies and renewables, countries unveiled Renewable Energy partnership. Germany pledged Euro 1 billion concessional loans for high quality projects. To achieve SDG goals and climate targets, countries signed JDI on agroecology, forest landscape restoration, collaboration on green energy corridors and triangular development cooperation in third countries⁵.

To cut through the bureaucratic slack, countries have instated a biennial Ministerial mechanism under the ICG to oversee, coordinate and review existing bilateral commitments in the areas of climate action, sustainable development, energy transition, development cooperation, science, technology, space and skill development.

Countries have a panoply of Joint working groups on environment, sustainable urban development, agriculture, food industry and consumer protection that coordinate the joint collaboration in respective fields. Agriculture and food sectors are key to sustainable development and Indo-German Centres of Excellence in Agriculture are working towards upgrading skills of farmers and daily wage workers and eliminating poverty. Strengthening collaboration on risk finance and insurance solutions against climate and disaster risks, India announced joining Germany’s InsuResilience Global Partnership.

EU-China investment talks which took a disastrous turn owing to Chinese sanctions, hit a permanent roadblock following Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russian invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the CDU coalition, the Greens and Democrats who are not enamoured by China, sought to consider Beijing as a systemic rival. On the contrary, Greens perceptive of India’s climate friendly agenda are expressing strong support to India-EU FTA negotiations.

Germany is India’s largest trading partner in the EU. Bilateral trade between the countries grew from Euro 15.96 billion to Euro 20.41 billion in 2018⁶. Prime Minister Modi co-chaired a meeting of Indian and German business leaders along with Chancellor Scholz and discussed way to bolster Indo-German trade and commercial partnership. Germany is seventh largest foreign direct investor in India and German MSEs are steadily increasing investments in India due to India’s sustained and dynamic growth. To expedite the investment process and strengthen start up cooperation, countries have established Indo-German Fast Mechanism and forged cooperation between Start Up India and German Accelerator (GS). To further promote economic cooperation, countries have signed JDI on training of corporate executives.

Giving a massive impetus to two-way mobility of students, countries announced finalisation of negotiations on bilateral agreement on Comprehensive Mobility and Migration partnership. Additionally, countries signed MoUs on safety & insurance of workers and on placement agreement based on the holistic “triple-win approach” where in migration of skilled health workers aims to benefit the host country, country of origin and the migrants themselves and a JDI on encrypted connection between foreign offices. Countries agreed on bilateral exchanges on defence & security issues and to hold regular bilateral Cyber consultations and reconvene the Defence Technology Sub Group (DTSG) meeting.

Rooted in mutual trust, the two democracies share values of rule of law, human rights and multilateral responses to global challenges. Reiterating their faith in multilateralism both countries members of “Group of Four” have committed to intensify efforts towards implementation of long overdue reforms of UNSC. Germany reiterated supported for India’s entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Despite the Ukraine distraction, Chinese transgressions in Indo-Pacific region are keeping nations on tenterhooks. India and Germany share a common view of threat from China to international world order. Beijing’s brazen violations have compelled nations to formulate a formidable Indo-Pacific policy.

Acknowledging the Policy Guidelines for Indo-Pacific of the German Federal Government, the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative of India, leaders underscored their commitment to Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision for seamless commerce and freedom of navigation. For the first time in 20 years carrying Berlin’s aspirations of a free and open Indo-Pacific, German Navy Frigate ‘Bayern’ set sail to the region in August 2021. It made a port call in Mumbai in January 2022⁷. Laying foundation for maritime cooperation, Germany intends to welcome Indian Navy ship on a friendly visit to its port next year.

As democracies both countries share many common values including construction of a multipolar world order. Reiterating German’s World view Scholz said, “India is among our very important partners here. The World can only develop well if we are clear as to the fact that future relations in the world will be characterised and marked by many countries, not by few powerful countries”⁸.

Espousing strategic autonomy, despite its neutral stance and repeated abstentions, towing a neutral stance, India extended humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. An assertive India in the face of constant threats from China has proved its mettle as a formidable counter to China. India’s steady and benevolent rise has unequivocally established its credentials as a responsible country in the Indo-Pacific. With a huge demographic dividend, large markets, consistent growth and demography India is now perceived as a credible global partner vis a vis an authoritarian China.

The elements of the new coalition at the helm insistent on values like democracy, environmental pledges, climate action, rules-based order have certainly more in common with India are now reimagining the partnership with India. Scholz’s press statement, “Delighted that the first Inter-Governmental Consultations of this government took place with India government. To me, it’s a sign of special quality of our relationship. India is an important partner of Germany in Asia in economic, security policy and climate-political terms”⁹ vividly encapsulates the mood in Germany. The vast expanse of collaboration across different fields demonstrates that India and Germany are looking forward to a promising partnership.

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Political standoff in Sri Lanka worsens economic crisis

On April 1^st, Sri Lanka declared financial emergency. For the first time since independence, Sri Lanka announced defaulting on international loans on April 12^th. Huge economic meltdown and severe shortage of forex reserves forced the country to halt even energy imports bringing the nation to a grinding halt. Sky rocketing inflation, long queues for fuel, shortages of medicines, rationing of essential supplies and the 13-hour long power outages led to massive public protests. The public anger brimmed over to the streets leading to massive protests across the country and claimed an innocent live in police firing.

The grim situation in Sri Lanka inexorably signals the pernicious economic crisis of the Island nation. Sri Lanka is on the brink of bankruptcy. But more than the debilitating economic crisis in Sri Lanka, the most virulent form of dynast politics is blowing a death knell to the country now. Responding to the public ire, Sri Lankan political dispensation instead of evolving a framework to stave off the crisis, the Rajapaksas are trying every trick in the book to hold on to the power.

As a cursory measure within a week of declaring emergency, the Sri Lankan cabinet of 26 members baring the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his sibling Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned. Amid calls of “Gota go back” and calls for resignation the President, reinstated a new cabinet comprising of 17 members including majority of the old cabinet members that didn’t include family members- Chamal Rajapaksa, Basil Rajapaksa and Namal Rajapaksa. Admitting to his faults for the first time, Gotabaya expressed an intent to expedite talks with the IMF and constituted a delegation led by Finance Minister Ali Sabry¹.

The much-delayed face saver appeasement by Gotabaya failed to quell the protestors. Gaining confidence from these largely faceless organic protests, the Sri Lankan opposition party Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) took the lead to muster the support of other political parties and a faction of ruling coalition who moved opposition benches in Parliament and mulled a no confidence motion. In the 225-member legislature, the opposition claims to have support of 113 which are needed to win the motion. If the ruling government loses the trust vote, cabinet will be dissolved and President can appoint a new Prime Minister.

Anticipating a threat to his position, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa proposed a move to curb the executive powers of President through the 19^th amendment². Indeed, in November 2019, after Gotabaya won the Presidential elections, the Parliament unanimously scrapped an amendment 19A that curtailed the powers of President and empowered the Parliament. In the process, Mahinda got supported from unexpected corners, the leader of UNP and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickramesinghe.

Sri Lankans who are equally miffed by the nasty politicking of Mahinda Rajapaksa, intensified calls for his resignation. Amid this growing political impasse, the President convened a meeting of political parties to discuss the most implausible prospect of the formation of an all-party government. On the face of it, while it looks like a justifiable scenario, undermining the basic essence of democracy, to avoid the prospect of facing public wrath, the President pushed this unprecedented idea.

Indeed, the Sri Lanka election commission has exhorted all political parties to come together and form a government to end the political standoff. Even business leaders and professional organisations advocated for an interim government. But the protestors demand the resignation of the Rajapaksa family members in toto. But Mahinda rejected this idea vehemently and insisted on having an interim government formed under his leadership³.

Indifferent to the protests calling for his resignation, President Gotabaya, in his May Day message urged political parties and protesting citizens to steer “Pro-people struggle”. This message which came a day after Buddhist leaders and trade unions warned Rajapaksas to resign and make way for interim government. Despite the remonstration to bring the country to halt by trade unions, Gotabaya reluctant to resign reiterated call for interim government formation as head of the state and insisted “each second, our goal is to find solutions to existing crises by resorting to methods that can alleviate the suffering of the people”⁴.

The defiance of Rajapaksas in the face of burgeoning political and economic crisis which is deepening by day is truly appalling. Sri Lanka has been under the vise grip of Rajapaksas credited for ending the 30 year long civil war since 2002. Mahinda Rajapaksa occupied the highest offices of Prime Minister and President often holding additional charge of Minister of Finance from 2002 till date intermittently baring few years of UNP coalition in power is credited with ending the three decade long civil war in the island. Gotabaya who led the armed forces during the Civil war even accumulated a similar good will and popularity of the Sri Lankan citizens.

Swept to power for the second time into power after winning the civil war, the Rajapaksas began to rule the country as a fiefdom. After the war ended, the Rajapaksa could have ushered the country into prosperity by diversifying the economy and inviting investments.

Instead of focussing attention on making the country self-reliant, Rajapaksas sustained growth through International Sovereign bonds (ISB) often borrowed at very high interest rate. Strategically playing a China card against India, Rajapaksas facilitated unrestrained flow of Chinese capital surpluses into Sri Lanka. Heavy investments in infrastructure development like highways, airports propped up the short-term growth of the country. These proverbial White Elephants envisioned with poor economic viability propositions- Colombo Port City, Colombo-Katunayake Expressway, Mattala International Airport, Hambantota Port and Ceylon Electric Company has turned out to be a drain on the economy. Tainted with corruption and low returns have increased the cumulative debt burden on the Sri Lankan economy which stands at $35 billion as of 2021.

For a decade (2003 to 2012), Sri Lanka registered a consistent growth of 6.4% that transformed the economy. Consequently, the country transited into a middle-income country in 2014. Hailing this landmark, World Bank cautioned the Sri Lankan leaders about major challenges – ensuring inclusivity in growth, enhancing role of private sector, proper resource allocation to various tiers of government, incentive productivity and exports. Simultaneously, it raised a red flag over declining tax to GDP ratio which was 11.1% and exports to GDP ratio⁶.

But the successive Maitripala government which stormed into power in 2015, failed to evolve any long term reformative economic plan for sustainable growth. A drought in 2016, exacerbated economic crisis. Though the Maitriapala government consciously avoided Chinese loans, in lieu debt swap, Sri Lanka leased Hambantota port to China for 99 years. But debts continued to accumulate due to poor financial prudence. Claiming uncontestable loyalty and commanding unflinching support of majoritarian Sinhalese Buddhists in the aftermath of 2019 bomb blasts in the island, Gotabaya became President in 2019.

Back in power, Rajapaksas announced a slew of tax cuts as part of economic relief measures- slashed VAT to 8% from 15%, halved income tax on construction companies, import tax cuts, removed debt service tax, nation building tax and introduced a 25% cut on existing telecommunication tax⁷ and enhanced threshold of income tax. The tax cuts amid the pandemic and fall in foreign tourist footfall and a decline in remittances have drastically reduced the state revenues. This gross economic mismanagement has forced the rating agencies to reduce Colombo’s credit rating close to default levels causing the country to lose overseas markets.

In a zest to become first country in the World to fully embrace organic farming, Sri Lanka banned the use and import to inorganic fertilisers in May 2021. Crop productivity suffered. To make up for the inadequate supply of organic fertilisers domestically, Sri Lanka ordered import of 99,000 metric tonnes worth from China’s Qingdao Seawin Biotech Group Co Ltd. But the consignment was rejected after Sri Lankan scientists detected harmful bacteria in the samples. Following a court order, People’s Bank of Sri Lanka withheld the payment. China besides black listing the bank, lodged a complaint against Sri Lanka at FAO and UN and arm-twisted Sri Lanka into paying $6.8 million as a compensation for the cancelled deal⁸. Sudden switch to organic farming, caused food shortages and price rise in Sri Lanka.

After this fiasco Sri Lanka quickly reversed its decision on organic farming and responding to island’s SOS call India rushed 100000 kg of nano fertilisers in October. The country’s financial recession has been in the making force several years has reached a hilt to due to a series of blundering missteps of Rajapaksas. The forex reserves plunged to $2.2 billion in 2022 from $6.9 billion in 2018. With the pending loan repayments for the year is $7 billion, Sri Lanka defaulted the payments.

Ironically, facing massive public anger, amid gruelling economic crisis, the Rajapaksas are adamant to hold on to the power. While an interim government composed of political parties of different hues might face difficulties of arriving at a consensus for implementing policies, to maintain a modicum of credibility and owing up for the disastrous financial management, the Rajapaksas should ideally make way for the much-advocated interim government. Political impasse is compounding the economic crisis and fuelling people’s angst. Pacifying the citizens and stabilising economy should be a primordial priority.

Already the worsening economic situations is compelling thousands of families to escape the food shortages and seek refuge in neighbouring countries. People are reaching Indian shores for better economic opportunities. Spill over of an exodus might eventually complicate the issues in the region. Sri Lanka played India against China and China against India to buy time and drag on its economic recession. In the face of crisis, India has ramped assistance in terms of loans, generously dispatched medicines, fuel and food supplies, urged World Bank to reclassify as low-income country for limited purpose of debt restructuring ⁹and urged IMF for financial assistance to Sri Lanka.

As a benevolent partner, India rose to the occasion to aid, assist and help Sri Lanka. To revive its economy, Sri Lanka must evolve a long-term plan for a sustainable economic growth. This can be possible with responsible and committed leaders at the helm. Sri Lanka has in the past resolutely removed incompetent leaders, reposing faith in the electoral system, the citizens must now resurrect and rebuild their country.

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Modi, Johnson infuse positive momentum in cooperation across full spectrum of bilateral

Among a bevy of leaders who made a bee-line to India, the visit by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the first European leader’s visit to India since the Ukraine crisis had grabbed a lot of attention. Johnson’s visit which materialised at the back of two previous postponements comes at a time when the British Prime Minister is facing terrible backlash over party gate. Even after paying hefty fine for Covid violations and an unreserved apology to the Parliament, the opposition is still gunning for his resignation. Similarly, his finance minister Rishi Sunak in addition to facing severe charges over Covid violations is mired in a tax conflict. Amid these domestic disasters, the UK Prime Minister embarked on a two-day visit to India to give a massive boost to British economy that exited EU, through an FTA with India and give additional push to the 10-year UK-India road map.

Owing to their differing positions on Ukraine, while it is believed that a discussion on Ukraine issue would log the bilateral talks, India incontrovertibly reinforced her neutral stance. Earlier during the UK foreign secretary Elizabeth Truss visit to India, EAM Jaishankar in a reply to a comment on India buying Russian oil said, “when oil prices go up, it’s natural for countries to look for good deals for their people. Europe bought 15% more oil and gas from Russia than it did a month before. Most of the major buyers of oil and gas from Russia are in Europe. We get bulk of our energy supplies from the Middle East, about 7.5%-8% from the US, may be less than a percent from Russia”¹. India’s affirmative statements and consistent pitch for “diplomacy and dialogue” is now well recognised by the US and the European countries.

Other than the Ukraine issue, Truss who laid broad contours for engagement participated in the inaugural edition of India-UK Strategic Futures forum, a track 1.5 dialogue along with EAM Jaishankar. She emphasised on reducing strategic dependence on Russia, security in Indo-Pacific region, defence related trade, defence cooperation, deeper cyber security and job creation.

Indeed, putting rest to the speculations of contrasting positions of countries on Ukraine casting a shadow on the bilateral engagement, addressing the Press, Johnson said, “I think you have to recognise that Indians and Narendra Modi in particular, came out with a very strong language with what happened in Bucha. Talking to PM Modi it is clear that he has already intervened several times with Putin. What Indians want is peace in Ukraine and they want Russians out and I totally agree with that. The Russia-India ties are historically well-known and they are not going to change that”².

UK advocated for the most punitive sanctions against Russia and offered political, economic and military support to Ukraine. Given its fiercest condemnation of Russia, Johnson’s recent visit to Kyiv and the subsequent entry ban announcement by Russia, his understanding of India’s strategic priorities is a welcome sign.

Putting the differences behind, Johnson has prioritised the agenda of strengthening the India-UK ties. The conclusion of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” at the bilateral virtual summit in May 2021, laid the road map for the India-UK relationship. Underscoring its commitment to Indo-Pacific security and defence cooperation Britain’ Carrier Strike Group HMS Queen Elizabeth deployed to the region, held joint exercises with Indian Navy in Bay of Bengal in October 2021. India is key strategic partner for the UK in the Indo-Pacific region and both have signed Defence and International Security Partnership in 2015.

In November 2021, laying foundation for India-UK climate partnership, along the sidelines of Glasgow COP26 summit, Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Boris Johnson together unveiled the “One world, one sun, one grid” bringing together International Solar Alliance and UK’s Green Grids Initiative. Both countries have also unveiled "Infrastructure for Resilient Island States initiative". Additionally ramping up climate cooperation, India has also signed up for the Glasgow Breakthroughs and the Zero Electric Vehicles Declaration wherein UK has committed to set up electric vehicle manufacturing hubs in India. To their credit, both countries launched Climate Finance Leadership Initiative Partnership in September 2021 to drive private, multilateral, and public investments to India towards meeting the 2015 Paris Summit climate goals.

Climate and renewable energy cooperation is now emerging as a promising arena of partnership between two countries. Under the aegis of the India-UK Science and Innovation Partnership on Green Hydrogen and joint work on Green Hydrogen Hub, countries are deepening cooperation in development of affordable green oxygen. Aside the climate action proposition, geopolitical hostilities are posing a major challenge to a reliable supply of fossil fuels. Energy exporters are now exploring various ways to become independent.

Focussed on economic recovery, building on the positive momentum generated in the aftermath of the virtual summit, on the eve of 75 years of establishment of diplomatic ties and India’s independence, both leaders intensified the full spectrum of bilateral relations. Seeking investment opportunities and huge market, post-Brexit Britain launched Enhanced Trade Partnership (ETP) in principle in July 2021. For long, EU’s complexities have hindered the trade negotiations and FTAs. Since its exit from the Union, Britain has signed FTAs with Australia and New Zealand and intensified negotiations with US and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific partnership (CPTPP) nations.

India which has signed interim trade deals with UAE and Australia is now keen on wrapping up similar agreement with Britain. In January Britain and India initiated negotiations for FTA. After the end of two rounds of talks, countries have completed four out of 26 chapters and made progress on the 22 chapters³.

Arriving in Ahmedabad underlining the successful collaboration between the GIFT City (Gujarat International Financial Service Centre) and UK’s financial services ecosystem, Johnson announced the deadline for conclusion of FTA by Diwali at the Press meet. Building on the climate partnership, UK has committed to finance to a tune of $1 billion towards India’s climate programs. Additionally, both countries finalised the India-UK Global Innovation Partnership (GIP) wherein countries will co-finance $100 million to support transfer and scaleup of climate-smart inclusive innovations from India to third countries in Asia, Africa and Indo-Pacific⁴.

UK’s intransigent approach towards Migration and mobility in the past effectively derailed trade negotiations between both countries. UK has now agreed to streamline the process and both leaders have reviewed the progress of India-UK comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership (MMP). But unfortunately, despite India’s repeated requests, UK continues to be unresponsive to the grave issue of extradition of economic fugitives.

To position UK as a serious global player post Brexit, Britain announced its Indo-Pacific tilt through a government policy paper “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy”⁵. The paper rightly identified Indo-Pacific as region of “world’s growth engine” and “centre of intensifying geopolitical competition” capable of addressing the economic and security concerns and advocated for a long term, closer and deeper bilateral and multilateral partnerships. Indeed, months after the Britain’s Indo-Pacific policy review, India and UK have elevated ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and UK has sealed the security agreement, AUKUS with the US and Australia.

In line with the common belief in the rules-based international system and freedom of navigation for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, India and UK have reiterated their commitment to transform defence and security as another pillar of strategic partnership. UK joined India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) that seeks to promote regional coordination and cooperation for securing and protecting the Indo-Pacific region.

 Deepening maritime cooperation, security forces of both countries jointly conducted trilateral defence exercises and included UK’s Liaison Officer in India’s Information Fusion Centre. To enhance cooperation in maritime domain countries are seeking early conclusion of Maritime Information Exchange Arrangement on dark and grey shipping.

To promote defence cooperation, countries have agreed to jointly research, co-design, co-develop and jointly produce defence technology systems in key and emerging military technologies and establish India-UK Electric Propulsion Capability Partnership.

To wean away India from Russia, UK will now partner under Make in India program for robust defence manufacturing of defence equipment, spares, systems through technology transfer, co-development and indigenisation. UK announced ‘open general export license’ to facilitate technology engagement and offered strategic collaboration in Modern Fighter Aircraft, Jet Engine Advanced Core Technology and naval ship building programs. Interestingly, even US has offered to collaborate with India on defence production to reduce New Delhi’s dependence on Russia. But, thus far, the DTTI (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative) hardly made any progress.

Discussing various regional and global issues, leaders strongly condemned terrorism and agreed to constitute a sub-group under the existing Joint Working Group in Countering Terrorism (JWG-CT) to enhance information and intelligence sharing.

Strategic congruencies and mutual interests are dominating the diplomatic partnerships. India and UK are uniquely poised in terms of convergence of strategic interests which includes a belief in rules-based international order, upholding the democratic values and defending openness. Reiterating these common interests and denouncing the “authoritarian regimes” and their blatant violation of the rules, Johnson applauded Indian democracy.

Extolling the highly successful collaboration between Astra Zeneca and Serum Institute of India, both countries rolled out ambitious plans to develop complete set of diagnostics and vaccines under the framework of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative. In the 21^st century, the threat to strategic assets and national security from cyberattacks has become ominous.  To increase mutual cyber resilience against pernicious cyber activities, countries forged an Enhanced Cyber Security Partnership⁶. Leaders witnessed the exchange of MoUs on implementation of global innovation partnership and nuclear energy partnership⁷.

Both Modi and Johnson have been upbeat about a prospective partnership between two countries encompassing several arenas. Aside the colonial legacy, India-UK relations plagued by several contentious issues has never been pragmatic. With an implicit pro-Pakistan tilt by raking up the Kashmir issue for domestic mileage, intervening in India's domestic issues, sheltering the Khalistani separatists, UK has been inimical to Indian interests. Spurred by the need to revitalise its economy and reassert its position as a global player post-Brexit, UK began to realise the geopolitical salience of a rising India. India’s democratic credentials, economic potential for investment and trade and its role as security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) prompted an urgent realistic analysis after Sino-British relations headed south.

A self-assured India on its end is intent on partnering with the UK, a global financial hub, innovation centre, a P5 member with naval facilities in Oman, Singapore, Kenya, Bahrain and British Indian Ocean territory for a promising and pragmatic partnership. Keeping aside niggling irritants that continue to abrade the relations occasionally, both the leaders have initiated a new conversation and attempted to infuse a missing element of ‘trust’ in the relationship. Hope this marks a new beginning for a partnership that offers solutions to the challenges of 21^st century.

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