Massive Restructuring of Global Power Dynamics Post-Afghanistan Collapse

 America’s chaotic retreat from Afghanistan has changed the global landscape and hastened restructuring of new alignments. America’s unilateral troop withdrawal as opposed to attack on Afghanistan two decades with support of the coalition forces has undermined its ability to carry on along its allies. In an attempt to resurrect the trans-Atlantic partnership that took a hit under Trump, President Biden pledged to renew America’s commitments towards its allies. Driving home the message of America’s renewed interest to engage with its allies, Biden asserted its transatlantic partners an era of cooperation at the G-7 Summit and the NATO summit in June.

To reduce dependency on the US, NATO began to hedge bets on China but quickly arrived at a consensus that it is a ‘destabilising force and a systemic challenge’. China’s retaliatory sanctions on EU academics, Parliamentarians intensified the Sino-skepticism, the diplomatic spat with Lithuania and denial of port call to a German warship just two days back vindicated its stand.

America’s Afghan policy perceived as an inward turn provided impetus for strategic autonomy calls in Europe.  Even the clamor for comprehensive decoupling form the US was on cards. But for decades, the EU ever reluctant to make fresh fund allocations for security and defence relied on the US. In the aftermath of fall of Kabul, European forces sought American help for keeping Kabul airport open for evacuations.

While the US and Europe continue to cooperate due to commonalties in strategic interests, US’s embarrassing retreat shaped a new perception that Washington can’t reclaim its position as a leading power.

America’s trans-Atlantic partnership is rested on the fulcrum of security. Though security is vital, Europe is currently facing a slew of global challenges. In lieu of these challenges EU chartered out a new road map, ‘Strategic Compass’ exploring the possibilities of diversifying relationships with various countries.

In the aftermath of Afghanistan collapse and Taliban’s return, the World was left gasping at the concomitant resurgence of violence and massacre. Suicidal bomb attacks at the Kabul airport, even before the deadline of evacuations, exemplified America’s failure to deliver on the primal objective of its Afghanistan mission- countering terrorism. Hypothecating its value system and edicts at the altar of Taliban in return for a limited gain of no attacks on its forces, America retreated. This abject surrender battered the moral high ground which America holds.

For long, US operated with countries based on an alliance system. But America’s reckless abandonment of Afghanistan, throwing the interests of regional partners to wind, have raised fresh doubts about the credibility of US partnership. Trump’s transactional partnership seeded skepticism towards US.

Wary of territorial security in the face of Chinese belligerence, America’s allies in the region began to explore interest-based coalitions. India- Italy-Japan trilateral kicked off in June setting pace for the India-France-Japan collaboration. Maritime security concerns propelled new trilaterals like India-France-Australia and India-Indonesia-Australia.

Genesis of the ‘interest-based coalitions’ sans America has become new paradigm in the Indo-Pacific region, a geographical construct which Trump has bolstered in the face of Chinese unabated aggression. Another noteworthy trilateral that emerged with economic cooperation as its cornerstone has been Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI) partnered by India, Japan and Australia. The new coalitions rooted in mutual interests devoid of the US and China which are at loggerheads have diligently reinforced multipolarity.

Pursuing Trump’s Indo-Pacific policy, Biden held the first ever virtual summit of Quad leaders asserting America’s interest in the region and affirmed commitment to FOIP (Free, Open Indo-Pacific). Indeed, citing challenges posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region, Biden defended the expeditious pull out from Afghanistan.

Instead of adopting a firm stand, Biden held a telephonic conversation with President Xi on Climate change cooperation at a time when Taiwan was threatened of dangerous repercussions if it changes the name of DC office. Xi in turn spurned Biden’s summit offer and demanded US to soften its China policy.

To salvage its image as a credible partner committed to the security, Biden announced a trilateral security cooperation, AUKUS agreement with Australia, UK and US. This Indo- Pacific grouping aims to supporting each other’s defence and security interests through “fostering deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains”. Under this defence agreement, the US and UK will provide technology to Australia to build nuclear submarines to augment its defence capabilities. The underground stealth technology will hugely enhance Australia’s capabilities to counter China.

However, this ended up puncturing holes in the already tenuous US trans-Atlantic partnership with France, accusing Biden of “stab in the back”. In 2016, France and Australia signed an agreement termed as ‘deal of the century’ to build diesel submarines. With the deal likely to be scrapped, France is livid over US betrayal.

Making no secret of its anger, Paris cancelled gala celebrations in Washington, pulled back its envoy and contemplating even a legal action. Other US allies- Canada, New Zealand has expressed their dissent. Shortly, European Commission and the High representative adopted joint commission for cooperation in Indo-Pacific proposing economic, trade, connectivity, green-alliance and digital cooperation with countries in the region which included India, South Korea, Japan, ASEAN, African, Caribbean and Pacific countries. The US didn’t feature in the list. EU even announced Global Gateway as a counter to China’s BRI.

AUKUS agreement elicited mixed response in India. A section opined AUKUS unveiled to advance American interests which would weaken the Quad and hurt India.  While other reasoned that Quad was never a military alliance and trilateral defence agreement would have no bearing on its salience.

Unwittingly, AUKUS triggered an interesting debate with a predominant perception- Wary of India becoming a regional superpower, the US has always preferred to keep it under check. Washington never bothered to sanction or withhold financial assistance to Pakistan despite India’s repeated exhortations. Washington’s retreat from Afghanistan without a plan B, disregarding the massive security challenges of a Af-Pak-China nexus, has compounded security challenges for India.

 A disputatious China has prompted India, which was on the sidelines of the global power dynamics, to take an active role. India is the most vital component of the Quad and an indispensable partner in the Indo-Pacific for democratic countries. India has always defended its interests and would continue to do so. In pursuit of becoming a responsible power, deftly asserting its strategic autonomy, India is diversifying its relations with a multitude of partners and has championed interest-based coalitions to take on hegemonistic China.

Despite America’s assurances to its allies and partners that it would continue to invest in its relations, reliability issue and this tendency to exercise unilateral decisions is bound to plague America’s strategic partnerships. As opposed to the US, given the centrality of India to Indo-Pacific and its refusal to cower down under Chinese pressure, countries are now seeking to partner with New Delhi. Super power dominated coalitions are now a passe and the US feckless abandon is vindicating allies’ worst fears.

Afghanistan and Indo-Pacific region currently stand out as the major strategic geographic regions of contestations and China is a major element in both of them. Advocating for a free, open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based order, the US represented a democratic World order. With this haphazard pullback, US has already ceded Afghanistan and struggling to consolidate its partnerships in Indo-Pacific.

Challenging the unilateralism of the US and the value system it advocates, defending terror at global platforms and allying with totalitarian regimes, Beijing represented a contrasting World order. Rightly so, even before the World could come to terms with an Afghanistan ruled by UN designated terrorists, consolidating its strategic depth in the region, Beijing lent credence to the regime.

Pledging $31 million to Taliban, China sought international assistance. Pakistan the architect of Taliban quickly rushed aid and endorsed the interim regime instituted by the ISI chief Faiz Hameed. Legitimizing the terror regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan and China have formally underpinned the consolidation of Sino-Islamist nexus and reaffirmed, “power comes from the barrel of the gun”.

Writing off concerns of Taliban government in Afghanistan, becoming a magnet for global terror networks, China and Pakistan legitimized the terror regime. While the Afghanistan issue consumed the World, sensing a strategic opportunity China turned the already tense South China Sea into a hot zone by unveiling a new maritime law mandating every vessel transiting its territorial waters to furnish all the details. Laying claims to 90% of SCS, China has turned SCS into a China lake.

Reports of Chinese submarine sightings near Japanese territorial waters, scrambling of jets over Taiwan have laid out bare China’s egregious expansionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. While the US struggles to focus on Indo-Pacific, bolstering its clout, China is building a coalition under the veneer of Afghanistan reconstruction.

Hours after AUKUS agreement, as a huge message to the US, the foreign ministers of China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran met along the sidelines of SCO at Dushanbe and agreed to hold meetings at ambassadorial level to continue coordination on Afghanistan. Inducting Iran into SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and inviting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as observers, Beijing is making the best out of the US’s decision to pull out its defence systems from Riyadh.

Undoubtedly, the Sino-US strategic rivalry spurred a massive restructuring of coalitions and altered the power dynamics. Unlike America’s security and military alliances, China has entwined countries with deep economic interdependence. Rightly so, while US unveiled AUKUS, focused on increasing its clout, China applied to join CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership), the third largest trading bloc.

Unlike the cold war years, the great power game is rested on several subliminal aspects. To up the game and counter the imperialistic and expansionist tendencies inordinately fuelling mistrust and prolonged tensions, countries have to now reimagine and reinvent new alignments for a safe, secure and peaceful world.

 

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Modi’s landmark address at UNGA seeks to elevate India’s global stature

World order is in flux. Overwhelmed by challenges, countries are seeking a directionality. The relentless geopolitical contestations have only exacerbated the woes of a pandemic ravaged world. To address these issues, the 76^th UNGA session organized debate on the theme “Building Resilience through hope to recover from Covid-19, rebuild sustainably, respond to the needs of the planet, respect the rights of people, and revitalize the United Nations”.

Addressing the UNGA as the Head of the government of Republic of India for the fourth time, Prime Minister Modi in his opening remarks endorsed the UNGA Presidency held by Maldivian as a recognition to the Small Island Nations. Paying ode to India’s timeless tradition and the civilizational doctrine of vasudaivakutumbakam (world is one family), Modi underscored that democratic values are integral to the land and his own rise to the highest seat of public office exemplifies the acclaim of India as “the mother of democracy”.

Truly, what is interesting is while leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Morarji Desai have mooted the India’s democratic credentials as native, Modi is now using it as a soft power. This strategy is a befitting reply to firewall the World against Beijing unabashed attempts to displace the existing World order with totalitarianism and the neighbouring Pakistan’s advocacy of a regressive ideology that is seeking to push the region into medieval periods.

Assuming the rotational one-month presidency at UNSC, India apprised the World of its Global vision and diligently placed a framework to address the global challenges. Furthering India’s global stature, as a representative of 1.3 billion people seeking to derive strength from their civilizational values, Modi made a case for urgent reforms in UN to make 18% of humanity an integral part of the decision-making structures of the UN. Indicating that a country as diverse as India rooted in the very values that are espoused by the UN can be an invaluable addition to the organization in realizing its goals of world peace and security, Modi appealed for urgent reforms.

Questioning UN’s inadequate response towards a collective fight against COVID-19, Modi raised doubts over its effectiveness and relevance. Quoting Chanakya, “when right action is not taken at the right time, then it is time itself that causes the action to fail”, he criticized WHO’s coverup attempts of COVID origins. Modi rightly raked up the irregularities in the ease of doing business rankings and urged the UN to restore its credibility. Unhesitant to point to the alleged penetration of the global institution by China, Modi called the bluff of the Dragon.

Enumerating India’s contributions to the UN peace missions across the World, Modi referred to his own developmental policies which are in line with the Sustainable Developmental Goals set by the UN. Enunciating his vision of “self-reliant” India steered by a rational, scientific and progressive thinking, he assured that India’s growth is a force multiplier for the global economy.

Expounding, “when India grows, the World grows, when India reforms, World transforms” Modi presented the developmental agenda of India and its international initiatives like- Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CODR) and International Solar Alliance (ISA). Exemplifying India’s commitment to human welfare, Modi talked about India’s generous vaccine to 150 countries at height of the pandemic.

Strengthening the case of benevolent India whose rise would accrue immense benefits to the World, Modi spoke about Deen Dayal Upadhyay’s “integral humanism”, where “development should be all-inclusive, universal and one that nurtures all” and underscored India’s pursuit of integrated and equitable development.

Cautioning the world of Afghanistan turning into a safe haven for terrorists, Modi pointed fingers at Pakistan for using terror as a political tool. Similarly, he called upon the international community to speak in unison to strengthen the rules-based World order and warned of China’s muscle-flexing in the Indo-Pacific region. Refraining from naming anyone, Modi made veiled attacks on Pakistan and China at UNGA.

Geographically, India is engulfed by two truculent enemies, plotting to balkanize it and stifle its rise as a strong and vibrant nation. Battling the bellicosity of the arch-enemy nexus against all odds, besides harbouring a shared vision for the World, India is making earnest pursuit to steer nation’s trajectory along the path of development.

Delivering on the global targets like climate change, harbouring ambitious vision for including renewable energy goals and green hydrogen; relentlessly advocating for an international counter terrorism strategy, India is working towards global challenges as well. Amid the reluctance of the developed nations to lead, collaborate, share and cooperate, a developing nation like India is raising to offer pragmatic solutions for a stable, sustainable and prosperous world.

Lacing India’s intent with apt words from Rabindranath Tagore’s song which means- “boldly move forward on your auspicious path of action, may all weaknesses and doubt vanish” Modi concluded his speech. Thus far, delivering the most positive and forward-looking address. The symbolism of three quotes by three iconic personalities of the land in three different languages in Modi’s address nicely summed up the vast diversity of India.

Even as countries like US are facing the erosion of trust in democratic process, appealing to the World that “Democracy can deliver; democracy has delivered” India is infusing new energy into the World order. Modi’s address replete with new pragmatism and dynamism is thus very significant.

Modi delivered a landmark speech at the UNGA. Though strategists might contend that Modi isn’t the first leader to highlight India’s civilizational aspects. But the speech assumes immense significance as unlike in the past, India is clearly walking the talk and started delivering on various aspects. Shunning the legacy of punching below the weight, India is attempting to leverage its demographic dividend, an upswing in economic outlook, developmental vision and an assertive foreign policy to elevate its global stature.

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Modi Makes All the Right Moves at the SCO Summit

 America’s retreat from Afghanistan has left a great void in the region in terms of security. China and Russia, quick to castigate America for the hasty withdrawal always despised America’s military presence. Both the countries which have drawn closer to each other might find Afghanistan as another binding glue to come together.

Incidentally, the 21^st edition of the SCO Leaders summit conducted in hybrid format is thus believed to bring not only China and Russia but other regional countries together. Launched as Shanghai Five in 1997 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it slowly transformed into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) by July 2001 with the joining of Uzbekistan.

The basis for formation of SCO has been fostering multilateral cooperation between neighbouring countries for strengthening peace, security and stability of the region. Central Asia is the core of SCO and believes that strengthening the stability of the region largely depends on the situation in Afghanistan.

Evolving as a multilateral organization, SCO built a solid legal framework and mechanism of interactions comprising two standing bodies- the Secretariat at Beijing and Regional Anti-terrorism Structure (RATS) at Tashkent that regularly conducts counter terrorism exercises with its members.

The central focus of the 21^st edition of the SCO expectedly has been Afghanistan. SCO steered by China is now the confronting the insurmountable task of managing the fallout of Afghanistan. The collapse of the democratic government in Afghanistan posed a formidable challenge for all the countries neighbouring it.

A month ago, when Afghanistan was staring at the possibility of an imminent Taliban takeover, SCO foreign ministers along with its Contact group of Afghanistan deliberated on the risks posed by a Taliban controlled Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban has close ties with all the terrorist and insurgent groups in Central Asia, China, Russia and South Asia. With the resurgence of Taliban, the dire need of containing the scourge of terrorism from spreading its deadly fangs into the extended neighbourhood has become an impending necessity.

Though the Taliban has assured countries to not allow its territory for any terror activities, a surge in violence and bomb explosions has heightened their collective anxiety. Threat to regional peace and security loomed large.

Inexorably, terrorism has emerged as a major issue. The stability of Afghanistan is one of the foundational aspects of SCO that came into existence just weeks before 9/11. In its two decades of its existence, pertinent to its double standards, China has failed to foster regionalism. Instead, it nurtured SCO into a China Club for clout building exercise. Russia which refuses to play second fiddle to China backed India for full-fledged membership at a time when Beijing wanted to make Pakistan a party to SCO. Eventually in 2017, both India and Pakistan who were earlier the observers to SCO became official members of SCO.

Making India’s stance clear right from the inception, New Delhi highlighted its concerns about terrorism and sought SCO’s cooperation to fight the same. Addressing the leaders of SCO on September 17^th, Prime Minister Modi has rightly reminded them of the three evils afflicting the region- terrorism, extremism and separatism.

 Modi has eloquently summarized India’s concerns and also the challenges at hand for the members to deliberate. He lamented about non-inclusive Afghanistan regime at the helm of affairs and urged nations to wait for a collective global decision to recognize such a system. Beijing’s opportunistic endorsement of a terrorist government is not lost on India. Seizing this opportunity, Modi warned such self-centered move is bound to encourage other terrorist groups to come to power through violence.

Being victims of terrorism, he urged all countries to develop a template for global anti-terror cooperation and a code of conduct to prevent cross-border terrorism and terror financing ¹. He warned countries of the risk of radicalization and said, “If we look at history, the region of central Asia has been bastion of moderate and progressive cultures and values…… On the basis of this historical heritage of Central Asia, SCO should develop a common template to fight radicalism and extremism”².

Outrightly deriding the ideology indoctrinated by our Western neighbour, Modi suggested a remedial measure for the proliferating extremism and radicalism in the sub-continent.

Modi sought cooperation of member countries for the proposal developed by India as the chair of the SCO-RATS for controlling human trafficking, illegal flow of drugs and illegal weapons.

Raising concerns over the free flow of trade and supplies which can exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, Modi made a pitch for the use of Chabahar port to ensure uninterrupted supplies to the land-locked country.

Pledging over $3 billion projects for Afghan reconstruction India is its most important non-western developmental partner. In 2016, India signed a trilateral transit agreement with Afghanistan and Iran for the use of Chabahar port as an alternative access route to Afghanistan. To circumvent the transit restrictions posed by Pakistan, India invested $500 million in Chabahar.  Strategically located, the Chabahar port is India’s gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics (CARs). Chabahar can lead up to the International North South Corridor running from Russia and also connects to European nations.

Connectivity is a major challenge for the land-locked CARs and Chabahar rightly fit the bit in catering to the trading aspirations of CARs in providing access to the vast markets of India. One of the main pillars of cooperation under SCO is connectivity. China’s $400 billion deal with Iran has cast shadow on Chabahar over reports of Iran removing India from Chabahar-Zahedan railway project due to scarcity of funds. By propping up Chabahar for regional connectivity, India made a right move.

Stating that, “connectivity was not one-way street; it needed to be participatory, transparent and consultative exercise, which the territorial integrity of partner nations” ³, Modi batted for the use of Chabahar project and also raised concerns about China’s coercion and predatory tactics. This comes at a time, when other SCO members have endorsed BRI, which has violated the territorial sovereignty of India. India has repeatedly raised objections to BRI’s most prized asset, CPEC which passes through Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK, which are legitimate territories of India.

The focus of the SCO summit has been “preserving and strengthening the stability of the region through early settlement of Afghanistan issue”. In his address, Modi discussed all issues pertinent to reconstruction and stabilization of Afghanistan. Chabahar which is the vital cog in the connectivity of Afghanistan can plausibility avert a crisis if SCO members chose to cooperate.  

India has been opposing China’s BRI tooth and nail. By registering an indirect protest against the BRI, propping up Chabahar and blatantly calling the bluff of Pakistan for its terror agenda, India has made all the right noises at the so called Chinese club. Refused to be silenced by the bully despite the ongoing standoff, by offering solutions, India has indirectly rebuked the China-Pakistan nexus that is ushering region into instability and eventual chaos by legitimizing Taliban regime.

America’s reluctance to play a global role and especially its hasty retreat gave China an opportunity to assert its control through SCO. Inducting Iran as the new member this year, China is eyeing to expand its influence to the regions that US is vacating. Beijing invited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as Dialogue Partners.

As has been the case, the hallowed mantra of regional cooperation through SCO is a sham. Russia and China are at odds to consolidate their control over the CARs. While Russia has militarily cobbled up support of CARs (three SCO members Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) through CSTO (Central Security Treaty Organisation), China is wielding control over them through its investments. For the overt friendly overtures, Russia and China don’t share common interests. Even the SCO members have their own internal disputes. India and Pakistan are archenemies. Afghanistan, Mongolia and Turkey are currently observer states.

Averse to toning down its ambitions, China is attempting to project SCO as a counter to the West. The Foreign Ministers meet of Pakistan Russia Iran and China (PRIC), an emerging anti-American axis along the sidelines of SCO is Beijing’s attempt to establish a regional order akin to the Quad.

The concept of the regionalism is now further diluted with the addition of Iran. The choice of the dialogue partners keeps changing with China’s economic interests. So, as of now SCO doesn’t qualify to be a cogent body. However, in the absence of any regional mechanism that could bring all countries together, SCO has now expanded its agenda and attempting to address some of the issues. After the collapse of SAARC, a regional platform to engage with Pakistan, SCO is serving as a cogent platform for India to object to Islamabad officially.

The most striking feature of SCO attracting traction for its darning hypocrisy is the annual counter terrorism exercises featuring a strong contingent from Pakistan.

Dushanbe Declaration asserted that priority will be given to the implementation of the 2022-24 programme of cooperation of SCO Member states in countering terrorism, separatism and extremism. To tackle the menace of drug trafficking, one of the off shoots of the terror perpetrators, SCO is mulling a center against International Organised Crime in Kyrgyzstan and a vital SCO Information Security Centre at Kazakhstan⁴. It underscored the criticality of an inclusive government in Afghanistan and supported “the emergence of an Afghanistan as an independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs”.

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Two decades to 9/11, America’s war on terrorism turned out be an unmitigated disaster

 In keeping with the Trump’s military retrenchment, President Biden, in April, announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by September 11^th, the 20^th anniversary of fall of twin towers in terrorist attacks. The bizarre symbolism is not lost on the World which enigmatically rued America’s move. In the aftermath of 9/11 in 2001 President Bush announced Global War on Terrorism (GWT) and attacked Afghanistan.

Two decades later the GWT have come full circle with Taliban government taking charge in Afghanistan on the very day America suffered its worst terror attack. Facilitating the return of a Caliphate through a Faustian bargain America not only emboldened the terror groups across the globe but inadvertently paved way for annihilation of an indigenous civilization in Afghanistan.

In the wake of return of fundamentalistic Islamic regime fearing persecution, even the last of Hindus and Sikhs have majorly migrated to India along with their deities. The harrowing experience of fleeing their ancestral homes will forever be etched in collective memory of the Indic civilization which had to bear the brunt of intolerance and ideologically inspired extermination of indigenous cultures.

Against the stated position of Afghan-led, Afghan-controlled, Afghan-owned peace process for Afghanistan, America’s disgraceful exit led to the emergence of Taliban-led and Taliban-controlled government. By ceding ground to Taliban who sheltered the Al-Qaeda the perpetrators of 9/11, America has miserably lost its touted “forever war”.

Barring the lone objective of averting major terror attacks on its country, America has terribly failed in its mission. A slew of mispriorities, ill-conceived judgements and undeserving generosity has entangled the country into more conflicts. As the super power of a unipolar world at the height of its glory, America attacked Afghanistan and then giving into proclivities of top members invaded Iraq.

Deeming the 9/11 attacks as a war against the civilized war, US along with NATO members, Northern Alliance and ethnic Pashtuns launched the first military salvo “Operation Enduring Freedom” on October 7^th,2001. With less than 3000 troops on ground, in the first 100 days, America destroyed Al-Qaeda, disrupted its terror networks, global finances, terror camps and drove Taliban out of power.

In the fierce fighting between the coalition forces and Taliban, many terrorists were neutralized. But at the behest of Rawalpindi, US turned a blind eye to a stream of terrorists that found safe havens in Pakistan. The master mind Osama bin Laden also fled to Pakistan.

After the collapse of Taliban regime, US installed an interim government comprising of all factions of Afghanistan by Dec 5^th 2001. Intensifying combing operations against Al-Qaeda, coalition forces unveiled “Operation Anaconda” in March 2002 and the US announced a reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan till 2009. Operation Anaconda wasn’t quite successful though since America’s focus has shifted to Iraq where forces were diverted. After installing the transitional government led by Hamid Karzai in 2002, Major Donald Rumsfled declared an end to major combat on May 1^st 2003.

Instructively, having destroyed the terror networks, America should have ideally pulled back from Afghanistan. But expounding the doctrine of weak-nations and ungoverned spaces becoming the festering grounds for terrorist activities, embraced ‘nation-building’ project. Subsequently, undertaking its first operation commitment outside, Europe, NATO began growing the International Security Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

With the first democratic elections and a constitution a new political system was in place Afghanistan in 2005. Barely a year into first democratic government, violence resurfaced, and owing to rifts in coalition forces, a deadline of 2008 was set for withdrawal of foreign forces and take over by the Afghan national forces.

On the other hand, America’s major non-NATO ally, Pakistan continued to aid, shelter and finance the Taliban forces and Haqqani network. Regrouped terror forces conducted collateral killings of Afghan civilians creating a rift between Afghan government and coalition forces in August 2008.

In response, President Obama deployed more troops to Afghanistan in 2009 and stepped-up nation-building efforts calling for provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs). He even rolled out a new American strategy indicating that a success in Afghanistan is linked to stable Pakistan and began pumping more funds. Even as the World could see through the double game of Pakistan, America deepened its ties with Islamabad. America’s strategic blunder stared in its face when the Marine corps, traced and hunted down Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011, a stone throw away from Pakistan military base.

Amid talks of gradual troop withdrawal from 2011, their numbers surged to its highest by 10^th anniversary of Afghan mission. While America continued to drag its feet to withdraw troops, terror groups used to opportunity to regroup and stoke insurgency.

In 2013, America stopped combat operations and handed over security control to Afghanistan forces. By then, the terror outfits who fled to Pakistan started penetrating the rural provinces. As per some reports, terror groups gained ground in over 50% of Afghanistan. Reluctant to rein in and sanction Pakistan, US slowly lost the war to Pakistan-controlled terror groups.

Realising Afghan war as a sink hole, fatigued by the never-ending war, domestic pressure and the ineffectiveness of coalition strategies President Trump expedited troop pullback.

Notwithstanding its mechanisms like FATF (Financial Action Task Force) created post 9/11 to disrupt terror activities, America’s series of missteps and its penchant for good and bad terrorist classification have proved to be counterproductive. America’s dubious position on terrorism is truly intriguing. America’s poor understanding of terrorism that stems from a malicious ideology of jihad despite its pernicious war in Afghanistan is rather alarming.

In pursuit of its strategic goals, America began arming terror groups in Libya and Syria to topple the regimes. Thanks to these ill-conceived acts, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan have turned into contestation ground for various terror groups.  Deprived of peace and stability, thousands of citizens are fleeing these countries sparking an unprecedented refugee crisis surpassing even the World War-2 numbers. With these acts, America normalized the process of arming one terror group to take on another.

America’s selective strategy towards various terror groups is rather amusing. In 2017, attempting to revamp its Afghan policy, US attacked the hideouts of IS-K group which is gaining ground in Afghanistan with a weapon, colloquially referred as “the mother of all bombs”. America’s duplicitous approach towards terrorism puzzled analysts who couldn’t reason out US keenness for peace process negotiations with Taliban and its attacks on IS-K. Rolling out similar strategy, in the light of IS-K attacks on Kabul airport during evacuation, US military openly supported the idea of coordinating with Taliban to attack IS-K.

Ironically, America’s yardstick for terror threat from groups has been transmuting rapidly. In 2001, America implored on UNSC to designate Taliban and Al-Qaeda as terror groups. In the next decade and half, abandoning its stated position, US made quick amends to its approach, calling for lifting of sanctions on designated sanctions in return for mythical peace, bestowed legitimacy and made it an important stakeholder of Afghanistan.

In response to IS-K, Kabul attack, terming IS-K is an archenemy of Taliban, President Biden almost whitewashed the atrocities of Taliban and rued IS-K rise.  Through its willingness to co-opt Taliban, US has condoned the Taliban. US message of using terrorism as strategic weapons for its interests is not lost on the terror outfits. Going ahead, these groups, might inexorably use this very weapon as a bargaining chip against the US.

Two days ago, a White House statement praised Taliban of being “cooperative” and “professional” for permitting the American citizens to leave Afghanistan. America’s reconciliatory approach towards a Taliban government comprising of 17 listed terrorists is appalling.

From sharing the details of Afghan interlocutors and others seeking refuge with Taliban and recklessly leaving behind the biometric data of Afghan, the unending series of America’s missteps continues to baffle the World. With its ignominious and embarrassing exit, America inflicted an unmitigated disaster on Afghanistan and the entire region.

Except for the saving grace of not suffering any major terrorist attack since 2001, losing over 2000 personnel and $6.5 trillion¹ in its war on terror America retreated from Afghanistan pushing it into darker ages. America’s unceremonious and humiliating exit will stand out as textbook case of what not do in a war against terror.

By failing to evolve a coherent and cogent policy even after engaging 20 years in the so called war against terrorism, the US reputation is in free fall.

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India’s presidency at UNSC exudes vivacious diplomacy

When India was about to assume rotating presidency at UNSC for the month of August, netizens fondly recalled two Korean war resolutions of 1950 adopted when India was in charge. In the course of past seven decades reflecting the geopolitical realities and developments, as council president India issued impactful presidential statements and passed resolutions. As a non-permanent member India held two-year term at UNSC in 1950-51, 1967-68, 1972-73, 1977-78, 1984-85, 1991-92 and 2011-12. India’s current stint is her 8^th tenure as council president.

Besides the month-long presidency in August, India will also get an opportunity to preside over the UNSC in December 2022. Some of the most outstanding resolutions which exemplified India’s stance include the strongest condemnation of the apartheid in October 1977, resolution on 1991 Iraq-Kuwait war and collapse of Yugoslavia in 1992.

As has been the practice before assuming the council presidency, laying out the foundation for Indian perspective, EAM Jaishankar announced, “India will always be voice of moderation, an advocate of dialogue and a proponent of international law”. India’s agenda for the month included three focus areas- maritime security, peacekeeping and terrorism and meetings on Syria pertaining to chemical weapons, political and humanitarian aspects, UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Middle East (Israel- Palestine).

In addition, India has listed the adoption of Presidential statement on drawdown of The African Union-the United Nations Hybrid Operations in Darfur (UNAMID), renewals of United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), UNIFIL, Mali sanctions and a resolution on increasing ceilings on UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

Aside the priority areas, owing to the deepening crisis in Afghanistan and fall of the democratic government, India held council three meetings on Afghanistan. Coinciding the departure of US forces from Afghanistan, India adopted the resolution 2593 forwarded by US, UK and France and supported by 13 members of UNSC after Russia and China abstained the meeting.

The resolution expects Taliban to allow safe and secure departure of Afghans and other foreign nations, uphold human rights and safeguard rights of women, minorities and children and “demands that Afghan territory not be used to threaten or attack any country or to shelter, train terrorists or plan or finance terrorist acts”.  Notably the resolution mentions LeT and JeM, designated as terror entities pursuant to UNSC resolution 1267 with proven record of carrying terror activities in Kashmir.

At a time when analysts have criticized India’s pussy-footing, New Delhi on the behalf of international community through UNSC sent a strong signal to Taliban that if it seeks legitimacy, it must adhere to the demands of the resolution. Prioritizing the ripple effect of Taliban takeover of Afghanistan on the immediate neighbourhood, India lost no opportunity to highlight the menace of terrorism in the region at the UNSC.

Alongside, underscoring the importance of maritime security and globalizing the Indo-Pacific geographic construct, for the first time ever, on August 9^th Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a session on Maritime Security, “Enhancing Maritime Security: A case for International Cooperation”. The Presidency Open Debate assumes greater significance for being the first ever standalone discussion on maritime security. Previously Vietnam in April 2021 and Equatorial Guinea in February 2019 attempted to move a debate on maritime security at UNSC but it was stalled by China.

Unlike other global challenges, major powers have different perceptions about maritime security. Lack of convergence has impeded an unbiased discussion and collective contemplation for evolving an agreeable framework.

India, which is at logger heads with China has laid firm diplomatic groundwork to initiate the discussion and evolve a framework on maritime security. Maritime front has become new theatre of contestation between India and China ever since the US has advanced the construct of Indo-Pacific in lieu of Asia-Pacific, which accentuated the centrality of India for the entire region. Together, the new Indo-Pacific region policies of European countries like the Netherlands, UK, France and Germany prompted a consensus building on maritime security.

India made five proposals and affirmed commitment to rule of law and advocated the framework laid by the UNCLOS. India drew attention to the use of sea by terrorists and called for capacity building, sharing of effective practices to combat crime; safeguarding legitimate uses of oceans, livelihoods of seafarers.

The five principles are an extension of India’s maritime policy which is reflected in New Delhi’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) concept of 2015, India’s Indo-Pacific vision 2018 Shangri La Dialogue and India’s seven pillars of maritime cooperation of Indo-Pacific Ocean’s Initiative of 2019 launched at EAS, Bangkok. India’s signature event witnessed the participation of four heads of state including Russian President Putin, President of Congo who is also president of African Union, PM of Vietnam and 10 ministers. Post the Open-Debate, all the 15 members of the council unanimously approved the presidential remarks.

Unfazed by Chinese aggression and strong-arm tactics, India for the first time ever brought about some consensus on global commons and responsible use of seas. Putin expressed thanks to India for pursuing this initiative.

EAM Jaishankar chaired the second open-debate on ‘Protecting the protectors: Technology and Peace-Keeping’. India has the sterling reputation of being the largest contributor to UN Peacekeeping missions since 1948. India has the iconic record of contributing more than 250,000 troops in 49 missions of which 175 Indians have laid down their lives for the cause of peace. New Delhi has been founding member of Peace Building commission started in 2005. Currently 5000 Indian personnel are deployed across 9 missions. In the wake of pandemic, India donated 200,000 vaccines for the peacekeeping forces, upgraded two peace keeping hospitals at MONUSCO in Juba, South Sudan and UNMISS Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, pledged a helicopter unit for MINUSMA.

Being the traditional benefactor of peace keeping forces and cognizant of the asymmetric threats faced by them, India rightly advocated for enhanced measures to ensure safety and security of peacekeeping forces. India called for Digital Transformation of the UN Peacekeeping and use of technology across the Action for Peacekeeping (A4P) and proposed four-point framework for the same.

Firstly- deployment of proven, cost-effective, reliable and field serviceable, renewable and environmental technologies for agile maneuverability of mission assets, second- a robust early warning information system and intelligence sharing; third-strengthening communications within missions to enhance informed decision taking capacities and lastly- training of forces in the realm of technology.

To this end, India’s Centre for UN Peacekeeping (CUNPK) started in 2000 signed a MoU with C4ISR Academy for Peace Operations (UNCAP) for new training modules for UN peacekeepers. Affirming India’s vision for Peacekeeping, a crucial cornerstone to accomplish UN mandates, the council has adopted Presidential statement on ‘Technology for Peacekeeping’ and resolution on ‘Accountability of Crimes against UN Peacekeepers’ making it the first ever document in peacekeeping.

Close on the heels of Taliban takeover of Kabul, EAM Jaishankar chaired an open debate on the most consequential issue of geopolitical realm titled – ‘Threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts’. Unequivocally reiterating its stance on terrorism for the past few decades, India has been raising this issue at various multilateral and plurilateral platforms. Initially, India’s concerns were rebuffed by the Western countries but when the scourge began to hit their lands and engulf their societies, countries began to condemn terrorism in all forms and manifestations.

The return of Taliban and its potential to turn into fount for global terrorism has heightened the concerns of regional and international security. For the consideration of the council India has put forth eight-point action plan and objectively enlisted cardinal principles that can aid in countering terror. These included- don’t justify terrorism, glorify terrorists; no double standards; no blocks on listing requests; discourage exclusivist thinking; recognize linkage to organized crime; no religious and political considerations for delisting and enlisting; strengthening FATF and funding UN office of counter terrorism.

But unfortunately, the collective resolve is impaled by nations who continue to unabashedly coopt the state sponsors of terror in pursuit of global ambitions. In the light of deteriorating Afghan situation, India brought to notice the potential threat from the anti-India outfits patronized by Pakistan which can now draw strength from the rise of Taliban. Keen on bestowing legitimacy to Taliban, China and Russia abstained from resolution.

Diligently, chartering through the global challenges and offering a blueprint to address them, India has inexorably made her stance clear on various issues. In a stellar show a vivacious diplomacy, India steered discussions on Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Ethiopia and Middle East Peace process. In all, India issued four Presidential statements- highest monthly statements thus far in this year.

Pitching for a reformed UNSC, beginning its two-year tenure as the non-permanent member of UNSC, India has unveiled ‘5S’ approach- Samman (Respect), Samvad (Dialog), Sahyog (Cooperation), Shanti (Peace), Samriddhi (Prosperity). Committed to multilateralism, rule of law, a fair and equitable international system, India advocated responsible and inclusive solutions for international peace and security.

By successfully hosting Presidency Open Debates on focus areas amid the looming the global flux, India ascertained her interests. Enunciating constructive, innovative and inclusive solutions India has firmly established her credentials as a responsible power.

By bringing international attention to myriad global challenges and eloquently presenting a framework, India is rightfully seeking to claim her place at the famed horseshoe table as a permanent member. Retrenching America has created a leadership void. Displaying a rare leadership acumen, commitment and initiative to steer herself as a reliable stakeholder, India inadvertently highlighted the flaws of archaic membership structure of UNSC.

Sending home, the message that a reformed UNSC can eventually offer a solution to the multiplicity of global challenges amid the rejig in the global order, India is attempting to buttress its candidacy for permanent membership at UNSC.

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What does the Rise of Taliban 2.0 mean for the rest of the World?

 The stunning fall of Kabul into Taliban’s hands has left the World flabbergasted. Buying into the American intelligence predictions which declared Taliban will take months to capture Kabul and the latest report that gave four weeks hold out time, World believed that Kabul can withstand. But the striking visuals of Taliban occupying the Presidential palace has alarmed countries. The pace of Kabul seizure stunned many countries and forced them to advance evacuation operations.

In little over a week, Taliban occupied over 13 provincial capitals. With thousands of Afghan security forces voluntarily surrendering to the Taliban, in absence of any resistance, Taliban entered Kabul and triggered the departure of President Ashraf Ghani.

Presidential office, later confirmed that Ghani left Kabul to avoid bloodshed. In the meanwhile, a section of media portrayed this astounding turn of events as a “bloodless coup” and lent a despicable “legitimacy” to this takeover.

Clearly, the Taliban must have struck deals with the local landlords and various resistant forces to advance their march towards Kabul. However, it is beyond the logical understanding that US intelligence which has been in the region for 20 years failed to get a hint of it.

Taliban 2.0

Even before the World could assess the impact of this sudden change, visuals of the plight of Afghan civilians trying to flee the country by even latching onto the wheels of a commercial flight hogged the limelight.

Along the same time, the sudden emergence of a new crop of social media activists hailing the Taliban as “sons of soil”, exonerating them of their atrocities against women by drawing parallels to the crime rate against women in Western countries and non-existent Hindu terror, the exultation over return of Taliban to power and the new obsession to justify Sharia as being cool reeked of an assiduous attempt to whitewash the brutalities of the Taliban.

This kind of discourse in conjunction with the Taliban’s new trend of addressing press conferences including an Israeli media, seems to be a novel effort to give the Taliban a face lift. Unmissably this new coverup, displayed all the characteristics of signature style of orchestrated campaigns launched to deliberately implant a narrative.

Additionally, through subtle assurances of peace and amnesty, proclamations that women would be guaranteed rights as permitted under the Muslim law, which in itself is a smart way of indicating imposition of Sharia, Taliban unveiled their new moderate avatar before the World.

But buried deep inside this new makeover efforts are the videos of Taliban intimidating Indians, a large contingent of 200 security agency employees were held as hostage. The abduction of female mayor of Afghanistan Zarifa Ghafari topples the façade of Taliban’s image makeover.

Also, in contrast to friendly media portrayal of everything is under control, India and other countries are experiencing great difficulties to evacuate its citizens and embassy employees. India sought the help of local assets to drive the contingent through 15 odd check posts managed by Taliban to reach the airport. In the aftermath of the civilians flooding the tarmac of Kabul airport, India stationed C-17 flight at Ayni airbase in Tajikistan.

Similarly, as opposed to the promises of not allowing terrorists a base in Afghanistan and amnesty to Afghan workers who worked with US government, Taliban released several dreaded terrorists from prisons. They began summary execution of Afghans who earlier worked with western government conducting door to door search. Fresh reports suggest that LeT is manning borders in certain regions of Afghanistan.

Together, all these events inexorably point out the Taliban 2.0 which is made to appear as moderate is indeed no different from its earlier version. Clearly, they have packaged themselves well to suit the modern world.

Nations response to Taliban take over

On August 13th, representatives of 12 nations which include- US, Qatar, UN, China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, UK, Germany, EU, India, Norway, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey at a regional conclave in Doha agreed that “they will not recognize any government that is imposed (on Afghanistan) through military force”.

But less than 24 hrs after Kabul fell to Taliban, China called on Taliban to “ensure smooth transition” of power and expressed willingness to “deepen friendly and cooperative relations” with Taliban. Making no secret of its elation, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan described the Taliban seizure of Afghanistan has, “broken the shackles of slavery” and endorsed the regime.

Forthcoming of Taliban’s return Russia stopped short of recognizing the regime. But stated, “the situation in Kabul now under the Taliban is better than it was under Ashraf Ghani”. Instructively, the embassies of China, Pakistan and Russia are still open in Kabul even as all nations have started evacuations.

 Iran cautiously welcomed Taliban. Qatar offered to facilitate peace talks and diplomatic evacuations. Bahrain has promised to initiate conversation about Afghanistan at GCC. Turkey which has pledged to security to Kabul airport is an active player in Afghanistan currently.

Among the European nations, UK took a strong position and voiced that nobody should bilaterally recognize Taliban. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated, “we want a united position amongst all the like-minded as far as we can get one so that we do whatever we can to prevent Afghanistan lapsing back into being a breeding ground for terror”.

Germany opined that the fallout Afghanistan owing to the American pullback more to do with domestic politics is bound to have domino effect. In the wake of turmoil in Afghanistan, at the request of Norway and Estonia, as the President of UNSC, India summoned an urgent session, the second such session in a month.

India expressed great concern over the situation of the war-torn country and “hoped that there is an inclusive dispensation which represents all sections of Afghan society”. Indian representative Tirumurti emphasized, “if there is a zero tolerance for terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and it is ensured that the territory of Afghanistan is not used by terrorist groups to threaten or attack any other country, then Afghanistan’s neighbours and the region would feel safer”.

India which currently adopting wait and watch policy is the only country to have opened E-visa services to the Afghan citizens.

Geopolitical Dynamics

America’s incompetent and disorderly pullback of troops coupled with Biden’s statement of not regretting his decision has changed the geopolitical dynamics. Refusing to accept responsibility for a botched-up exit, he blamed everyone- his predecessors, previous administration, Afghan army for failing to put up resistance, except Taliban.

By exonerating Taliban of all culpability, Biden fundamentally undermined the basic objective of America’s mission in Afghanistan of War Against Terror (WAT). Trump’s Faustian bargain with Taliban that contradicted its global positions on democracy, human rights, gender equality, religious extremism and terrorism exposed America’s vacuous commitment to all expounded values.

The message is not lost on the World.  Above all, the fleeting retreat of the American troops, meek surrender and self-righteous justification in consigning the country to terrorists has irrevocably tarnished its reputation as the Super power of free world.

America’s current ignominious withdrawal and blatant disregard to the implications of the same on the region has eroded its credibility especially in Asia. This has advanced its much-touted terminal decline. America’s exit has left a huge global vacuum which Beijing is more than eager to occupy.

The huge mess in Afghanistan exemplified specious nature of so called free world which America advocates. Since the turn of this century, China made no secret of carving an alternate World order and challenging the West’s rules-based World order. America’s retrenchment in the recent past has strengthened its resolve. The disastrous exit of America has impaled the ethos of a democratic (free world) world order.

America’s bungling exit has only stratified its infamous record of dumping allies. Afghan government is the new entrant to the list which continues to grow. Credibility loss, is going to hurt America’s foreign policy that seeks to counter Chinese expansionism. Together, American intelligence monumental failure in assessing Kabul’s fall despite 20 years boots on ground could be hard to contend with.

Even as analysts, defend America’s exit from Afghanistan is to focus on Indo-Pacific which is the arena of global contestations, it defies all logic. Having vanquished its credibility by throwing an ally under the bus, prospective American partners in the region will be forced to rethink about their strategic ties.

Quick to gauge America’s strategy, after Taliban took over Kabul, PLA’s eastern command ordered live fire drills close to Taiwan island as an indirect message to the leadership. The Global Times, openly taunted Taiwan for depending on an unreliable and untrustworthy ally. The images of America airlifting its stranded diplomats from Kabul embassy reminding frenzied evacuation from Saigon in 1975 has only symbolized America’s perfidy.

Doubling down on strategic engagements with countries in the Indo-Pacific, Biden has marshalled his diplomats to the region to mobilise a counter-coalition against China. However, America’s watershed moment in Afghanistan has successfully watered down all these efforts. On the contrary, America’s humiliation and self-defeat has buttressed China’s alternate totalitarian world order. The nascent friendly ties of China with authoritarian regimes like Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and Iran are bound to receive a fresh shot in arm.

By welcoming Taliban’s takeover and announcing friendly ties and extracting assurances to not shelter Uyghur separatists and attack its assets in the region, China has stabilized its position.

Tamely accepting the Taliban’s commitment of not undertaking terrorist attacks against US and its allies under Doha treaty, US ignored interests of India. India has been at the receiving end of Taliban-ISI nexus since 1980s. Pakistan is the patron-in-chief of Taliban and the latter actively collaborated with its master to target India. Afghanistan under resurgent Taliban could turn into breeding ground of terrorists ground can pose a major threat to India’s internal security.

India’s Options

Expressing disappointment over America’s disorderly exit, EAM Jaishankar clarified that India position on Afghanistan is different from America. India viewed America’s ties with Pakistan to leverage Taliban with an iota of mistrust and skepticism. 

With America’s exit nearly complete, veritable Pakistan-China nexus bound to intensify its boxing strategy of India, India is now exploring new options. As a message to the West, Russia would eventually recognize Taliban. India has doubled its outreach to Iran. Jaishankar made two trips to Tehran within a month and the second one on the eve of President Ebrahim Raisi’s oath-taking ceremony was quite significant. New Delhi has also increased engagement with Central Asian Republics (CAR). Jaishankar recently visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for the Regional Connectivity conference and SCO Foreign Ministers conference respectively. Saudi Arabia and UAE only two countries to have recognized Taliban 1.0 besides Pakistan are now quiet. India currently enjoys strong strategic ties with both of them.

Taliban return culminating in emergence of a mini-caliphate has invariably scripted a new dimension in geopolitics. Rise of medieval, ultra-conservative, jihadist regimes and their eventual legitimization by super powers for their interests is bound to have inimical consequences. Mainstreaming of the terrorist regimes and their eventual acceptability is set to embolden extremist outfits across the globe. As has been the case, the absence of sanctions and damning retributions on the state-sponsors of terror and their eventual co-option is posing a major threat to regional security. Take over the state by terrorist groups aside increasing the risk of state assets, finances including strategic weapons falling into hands of rogue elements will compound threats to their adversaries.

Most importantly, Taliban resurgence accentuated the limitations of military to deal an ideology. It is time, twin weapons of global isolation and sanctions regime must be employed against the terror groups and their patrons to remedy the world from the ideology driven scourge.

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1.      

The Idea of India @75

Amidst massive upheavals in the immediate neighbourhood and stirring domestic incongruencies, India is all set to celebrate the 75^th year of Independence. Even as the tremors of the external uncertainties and domestic political rumblings has put the nation to a crucial test, the usual murmurs about the fate of India have begun to surface.

Over the past seven decades, India bore the brunt of numerous travesties and weathered them with elan and poise. Despite the assumptions of portending disasters of an eventual fall owing to a calamitous partition, the deep scars and trauma in the aftermath of the independence, India proved the World wrong and steadily rose to its feet.

Instructively, notwithstanding the perennial anti-India propaganda and orchestrations of a discourse inimical to national harmony which have become more shriller with every passing day, the Idea of India seems to be growing in strength. India has been under a state of assault from 6^th century and the new mechanisations to undermine this Oldest Civilisation which is fighting back to assert its identity is witnessing a new trend.

A trend which led to crystallization of Indian society into an entitled class and the aspirational class. Since independence the entitled class, comprising a motley group of highly influential, well-connected with higher offices of power laid the path and framework for the country. Managing the discourse and producing deracinated generations of Indians, they sapped out the vitality of the nation. Taking over reigns from the White colonists the brown skinned, anglicized Indians derided the idea of India.

The harbinger of the hope in the form of rise of an aspirational class, desperately seeking to connect to the civilizational ethos, reassert their identities is inspiring confidence. Dispelling the dark shadows of disdain and frustrating the insidious attempts to widen the societal fissures the new aspirational class is marching ahead and leading the way for progress.

Revving up attempts to explore the history gaslighted by the elite class, demonstrating a new pragmatism of reviving our culture, tradition and culture, the aspirational class is reigniting the passion to connect to roots. This renewed outlook and approach of the new tribe who identify themselves as Dharmics are reinforcing and bolstering the idea of India. Disapproving the pessimistic portrayal of India, the sense of pride infused by this new tribe is turning out be the oxygen catalyzing the wheels of civilizational, societal and economic growth of the country.

Throwing spanner into works of vested interests trying to defend every act of bigotry, hypocrisy, betrayal and defection under the banner of secularism, the new tribe is debilitating the break-India forces. This characteristic aplomb in challenging the warped and blinkered narrative by the aspirational class slowly and steadily is inculcating a new pragmatism about our identity, squelching the servility.

In the run up to the Independence Day when the national contours are etched by the despicable hooliganism and a rare political unanimity to exacerbate the societal differences, the news of the Indian unicorns becoming a guiding light for our economy is suffusing new momentum. Instead of ducking or lying low, refused to be pushed into a corner, India is assiduously coming up with new ideas to circumvent emergencies and threats.

Emergence of sudden urge to rediscover our civilizational values spurring a new renaissance has started to take shape now.  Sri Aurobindo said, “Nations, like individual men, cannot evolve to their fullest potential as long as the swadharma is not able to express itself freely in the collective life”. Clearly, it is time to look inwards to rediscover our own strengths and secure our national interests.

 As a nation, India has made lot of progress. India is currently the fifth largest economy in terms of GDP. Though India’s plans of becoming a $5 trillion economy are torpedoed by the pandemic, after an initial slump, economy is showing signs of recovery recording high FDI flows. Caught unawares initially, India quickly checkmated Chinese incursions during Covid. Enduring the long-drawn peace negotiations with the Dragon, India is working towards reducing tensions at LAC. While the real test for India now seems to be the tumultuous Afghanistan, India in the recent past has resolutely upheld its national interests in foreign policy.

Truly, even as intellectuals and the entitled class is whining about the idea of India, India @75 is more optimistic of its rise than ever.

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Bronze Medal for Men’s Hockey marks the rise of a new cult of achievers

Nothing succeeds like success and the winning statement has a magical influence. The ecstasy that helmed the country with Indian Men’s Hockey team victory has not been just about the podium finish. The colour of the metal is incidental since it wasn’t about wining laurels. But by making a mark India has inched closer towards reclaiming its pristine glory. The win has rekindled new hope and strengthened their resolve. It shattered the burden of failures and bestowed new spirit and enthusiasm.

Clearly, at a time, when the nation is finding reasons to be distraught and worried, the Olympics has rightly forced the sports buffs and enthusiasts to find a reason to revel and celebrate the perseverance, grit and determination of ordinary Indians. With their winning habits, the new genre of sports icons is emerging as symbols of hope and inspiration. Undeterred by hardships, financial constraints and dire poverty, raising from humble origins the new breed of Indian sport stars are re-writing rules of success and scripting history.

Marching ahead with the mantra of self-belief, the gritty new champions of are now a source of inspiration for the aspirational Indians who are looking for contemporary heroes. These sports icons with their stupendous feats are changing the definition of heroes, who are usually portrayed as people with super natural powers. These ordinary Indians, often next-door neighbours hailing from non-descript locales reaching scaling the highest peaks with their hard working are now the embodiments of success.

Demography is India’s real asset. Stories of collective achievement will go a long way in inculcating a positive spirit. The multiplier effect of this positive influence will prompt youngsters to dream big and make conscious efforts to achieve them. These real time triumphs, breaking of barriers and creating new landmarks will essentially drive teeming younger generation into action.

The extraordinary achievements of ordinary men and women go a long way in inspiring the nation of over billion people. It is in this context, a podium finish by the Indian Hockey team will forever will reckoned as stupendous achievement.

The team efforts especially have a special way of binding people and celebrating the power of working together as a collective unit. Reckoned as a chaotic society and dominated by disparate voices, identities India always had more reasons to be divided than to build on their commonalities.

Crumbling under pressure, for ages Indian sportsperson despite their hard work failed to make it to the finish line. The drag of wavering self-belief has hindered their capacities to unleash their full potential.

Hockey bronze has broken that trail of disappointments and infused a new confidence. Similar to the Indian Cricket’s 2011 World Cup water shed movement which rejuvenated the spirits of youngsters and ushered them into winning ways, the Olympic podium finish would suffuse hockey players.

Hockey has been integral to Indian lives. It has special significance in India’s sports arena. Replete of ups and downs, the Indian Hockey history is truly inspiring story. Worth contemplating and emulating the lessons.

With an unparalleled record of wining eight gold medals in Hockey and scoring the most number of goals in Olympics, the Indian team struggled for over four decades to win a medal. India’s bronze at Tokyo is their third medal. Being pioneers of field hockey, India lost the inherent advantage of excelling in this sport which has been a way of live for people with the introduction of Astroturf surfaces. India struggled to play the game on the hard surface. European countries prevailed and turned around the contour of the field hockey by introducing hard surface, where technique had little role to play but benefitted the brute force and stamina.

Accustomed to a dribbling game on grass surfaces Indian players experienced difficulties in displaying technique and skill on hard surfaces due to setting in of fatigue and physical exhaustion. Nearly all the major tournaments are held on hard surfaces. This has really hurt the fortunes of Indian hockey.

Poor resource allocation to sports in general, lack of the sophisticated training facilities and Astro turf surfaces in general plagued the game. From failing to qualify in 2008 Beijing Olympics to making it to a podium finish in 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Indian Hockey witnessed a major turnaround.

In 2018, when Sahara backed out from sponsoring both Men’s and Women’s hockey, for the first time a state government, Odisha signed a Rs 100 Crore deal with Hockey India for next five years. Besides building the needing infrastructure, hosting the Men’s Hockey World Championships and sponsoring Kalinga Lancers, the state has turned into cradle of hockey, grooming the next generation of players.

Overcoming the stumbling blocks of poor training facilities, insufficient government, nepotism and corruption, current generation of Indian sportsperson are wining World championships and other international tournaments announcing their arrival on the World stage.

Fervently praying for the victory of Indian Women’s Hockey team in the Bronze Medal match, here is my tribute to the new tribe of achievers…

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China senses a strategic opportunity in Afghanistan

America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a geo-political vacuum. It has opened up an arena for the regional powers to manage the scenario of post-American retreat. Cognizant of the implications and the regional powers have girded up loins through proactive engagement with Afghan Taliban which claims to be in control of 85% of the territory.

A speedy American withdrawal has exposed the sham of “great war on terror” and accentuated Beijing’s strong conviction that US is in terminal decline. Among others, Beijing is sensing an opportunity to expand its strategic base in this region. For long, China has operated in Afghanistan through its proxy Pakistan. Officially expressing its keen interests culminating with America’s retrenchment from Afghanistan, Foreign Minister ahead of the SCO Foreign Ministers meet and Afghan Contact Group meeting announced, “China’s consistent position on the Afghan issue is to respect Afghanistan’s historical and current conditions and to help but not interfere, which is also what separates China from the US and makes China a mediator or a “guarantor of security” in the region”.

Russian ambassador rightly pointed that the civil war in Afghanistan has been reason behind formation of SCO, “One should not forget that the SCO emerged as a response to immediate threats of terrorism and drug trafficking, which came from Afghanistan in the late 1990s. The SCO idea was born from a collective demand for a regional coalition to combat them”

It is a bizarre irony to even believe that China wouldn’t interfere, given the political influence it wields over political regimes in the region. Indubitably, at a time when China is no longer hiding its global ambitions, Beijing is engaging with both Taliban and the Afghan government to secure their support for CPEC and rope in the country officially into BRI for seamless transport of goods to Eurasia.

China has a three-pronged approach for Afghanistan- backchannel communication through Pakistan, SCO platform and positioning as mediator (hosting Taliban, Heart of Asia Summit and holding Intra-Afghan talks).

Cognisant of Taliban’s close links with ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), China initially supported UN’s sanctions on the group.  But driven by economic factors and security concerns, when Taliban took to reigns, China forged ties with the terrorist group despite its perceived threat from Islamic extremism. To foster economic ties, in 1999 Chinese officials flew to Afghanistan to secure meeting with Mullah Omar; started flights between Kabul and Urumqi and forged economic ties.

In 2000, China’s ambassador to Pakistan Liu extracted assurances from Mullah Omar to not allow anyone to use its territory for any anti-Chinese activity. In return Omar demanded two things from China-formal recognition and protection against sanctions. But the deal failed. While Omar restrained ETIM, he failed to expel them and China in turn didn’t oppose sanctions at UN but abstained from voting. Neither of the parties fulfilled their promises.

Indeed, on September 11^th 2001, China and Taliban signed MoU to enhance economic ties. Things changed after the 9/11 event China supported US’s war on terror and Taliban and its ties took a back seat. However, China managed to obtained concessions from Taliban to disallow any attacks on its investments in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and China were the only two countries that maintained ties with Taliban after 9/11. Reportedly, Beijing held meetings with this group at Chinese controlled Saindak mikes in Pakistan. After Obama administration announced plans of withdrawing in 2014, China increased involvement in Afghanistan.

China conducted Heart of Asia summit at Beijing in 2014, supported the Pakistan hosted Murree talks for Afghan reconciliation and a political settlement through the Quadrilateral Coordination Group with US, Pakistan, Afghanistan. Took part in Kabul process convened by Ghani in 2017, talks at Moscow in 2018 and hosted a trilateral dialogue with Afghanistan and Pakistan in September 2019. Xi resuscitated Afghanistan Contact Group of SCO. In 2019, China hosted Mullah Abdul Baradar and conducted intra-Afghan talks in 2020.

At the trilateral of the foreign ministers in 2019, countries agreed to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan by connecting Peshawar with Kabul. Unlike other countries, China has hedged its bets on major stakeholders of Afghanistan- Taliban (its covert masters Pakistan) and Afghan government. In the pursuit of economic opportunities, exploration of natural resources and military support, President Ashraf Ghani started wooing China. But with US forces still stationed in the country, Ghani refrained from officially acceding to any framework.

China enjoys greater advantage than the West in terms of general acceptance by Afghans as such. West is considered an adversary, whereas China is still coveted as power capable of playing a significant role in peace talks and mediation. But the deep Sino-Pakistan relations cast an aspersion on China’s real intentions. China’s overemphasis on Pakistan is objected by anti-Pakistan forces and Afghan government.

Taliban also considers China as a crucial source of investment and economic support. In fact, in 2007, Beijing managed to potentially secure a lucrative concession from Taliban to prevent any attacks on its projects which included Aynak copper mine. Taliban’s support is crucial for the vast number of projects operating under CPEC and for any fresh strategic investments in the country. But the continued violence and Taliban’s links with ETIM are still a cause of concern for China.

To assuage the concerns of China, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen announced, “we care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the World. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”, thus staying clear of the raging Uighur human rights debate. Eager to seek China’s acquiescence to their rule, Taliban is striking a fine line of maintaining the balance between its commitment to Islamic ideology and the political ambitions.

Last year it pledged to not to let Afghan territory to be used for terror activities against any country including China. These fresh guarantees reminiscent of the past assurances in 2001 has laid foundation for China’s first major public engagement with Taliban.

Days after US abandoned Bagram airbase, Taliban’s resumed brutal killings and medieval Sharia practices made a comeback. Against Taliban’s famed record of reneging on promises, arguing, “making enemy of the Taliban was not in China’s interest” Beijing welcomed Taliban delegation at Tianjin. This engagement is an extension of a meeting between foreign ministers of Pakistan and China on June 24 who vowed to “bring Taliban to the mainstream”.

Reiterating China’s stance, The Global Times, the CCP mouthpiece described Taliban as “an important militant and political force”. By bestowing legitimacy to a terrorist group and lending acceptability, China typically bolstered the popular perception of inexorably siding with terror perpetrators and patronisers to secure its interests.

For decades, China shielded Pakistan from international censure for its terror activities, UN sanctions against its terror organisations and prevented it from getting black listed by FATF.  By extending similar concessions and paybacks in lieu of reining on ETIM and attacks against its interests in Afghanistan, Beijing meant business. Even as it continues to defend the internment of over 1.5 million Uighurs over terror threats, it refuses to acknowledge the implications of mainstreaming a terror outfit.

By acknowledging the terror outfit as stakeholders in Afghan peace, China has emboldened the terror organisations across the World, who would now brazenly continue to unleash their brutality to leverage a Faustian bargain. US lend credibility by striking peace deal with Taliban and failing to inflict any punishment for breaking it. China is taking to the next level to secure its interests.

Taliban pledged to realise peace, protect human rights and interests of women and children in China. But on ground realities are in sharp contrast to the affirmations of Taliban. For China, denial of Uighur sanctuaries in Afghanistan is precondition for engagement with Taliban. Reiterating Beijing’s concerns Wang Yi said, “ETIM is an international terrorist organisation listed by the UNSC which poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity. Cracking down on ETIM is the shared responsibility of the international community”.

Beijing exhorts that restraining ETIM is shared responsibility of international community. But fails to extend similar courtesy to India which has at the receiving end of Pakistan’s cross border terror and wary of resurgence of Taliban, which can turn Afghanistan into a breeding zone of terror outfits.

ETIM and its successor Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has close connections with Osama bin Laden dating back to 2001. While a majority of Uighur militants have moved to Syria a recent UNSC report claims that around 500 of them are operating in the Badakshan province. With the evacuation of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the Uighur militants are planning to return to Afghanistan from Syria.

Wakhan corridor in Badakshan province of Afghanistan which is taken over by Taliban shares a 76km porous border with China opens into Xinjiang province. Re-emergence of Taliban has stirred concerns in China of a plausible infiltration of Uighur seperatists advocating for an independent East Turkestan (Xinjiang). Beijing has beefed up security at the Wakhan border, Afghan-Tajik post, Pakistan administered Kashmir deploying its personnel to forestall any infiltration.

China which has always condoned terror is beset by a strange paradox. Beijing finds a huge scope for expansion in the aftermath of huge void left by American withdrawal in the region. By virtue of iron clad friendship with masters of Taliban and massive economic investments across entire Central Asia, China emerged as the dominant power in the region. By virtue of its burgeoning clout, China seeks to penetrate Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Terror attacks in Pakistan increased in the aftermath of Taliban resurgence. Nine Chinese dam engineered were killed in a terror attack in North Pakistan and a Chinese citizen was shot in Karachi recently.  These attacks have sparked concerns of safety and security of Chinese personnel and investments in the region.

Though Taliban has pledged to severe ties with other terror outfits, latest UN report and the aggressive offensive indicates otherwise. 12 designated terror outfits are reported to have joined Taliban war -LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jamaat-ul-Arhar, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Al-Badr were spotted to be fighting alongside Taliban which is in gross violation of 2020 peace treaty.

For decades, China has tamed the mothership of terror, Pakistan for its strategic ambitions. With Taliban-dominated Afghanistan a plausible reality, China dangled carrots to woo it. Tensions due to terrorism would continue to exist. Given the decades of all-weather friendship, Beijing is hopeful of managing the Taliban. But Taliban is not Pakistan and a lot depends on whether Taliban could wrest its control over entire Afghanistan.

Amid China’s overt Taliban outreach, critics lament India has lost Afghanistan. On the contrary, over the past two decades, India has implemented developmental and capacity building projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan and its nimble-footed efforts in Afghan rebuilding are well received. Aside the massive connectivity exercise through Chahbahar, India recently signed a MoU with Afghanistan for Shahtoot dam construction and called for a quadrilateral working group on the use of Chahbahar port with Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Ramping up parleys with regional partners, India is in regular touch with all stakeholders of Afghanistan.

Given Taliban’s gains, strategists are predicting the fall of Afghanistan. But all is not over yet until everything is over. The game is still on.

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