The Strategic Import of Turkey-Pakistan Alliance

 Strategic discussions in the sub-continent are currently cornered around the Biden administration’s proposal to hold first meeting of Quad leaders and the much awaited dis-engagement of Indian and Chinese troops across the LAC. At this juncture, another strategic alliance with immense geopolitical impact on the South Asia and Middle East is slowly shaping up.

This week Special Forces of Turkey and Pakistan have commenced joint military exercises- Ataturk XI-2021 close to Afghanistan border in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province with a focus on counter-terrorist operations¹. Turkey and Pakistan, former allies and part of the US axis during Cold war are now intensifying bilateral cooperation across different sectors have many things in common including their geopolitical journeys.

Favoured for their strategic geographical location in Middle East and South Asia respectively, US turned both of them into strategic assets. In the recent past, both countries have fallen out the good books of the Washington and they are in search of new and alternative alliances. The middle-sized Sunni nations with Islamist outlook are intensified bilateral cooperation spanning many sectors.

Intertwining their religious, cultural and geopolitical goals and interests both countries have been taking the relationship to the next level. Spurned by Saudi Arabia for its Kashmir obsession, Pakistan moved closer to Turkey which is keen on clinching the Islamic World leadership from the Arab nation. At a time, when Saudi Arabia and UAE have intensified strategic partnership with India, Pakistan rallied behind Turkey, Iran and Malaysia and laid foundation for an alternative mini-Muslim alliance.

As a toast to this friendly minted strategic partnership, Turkey President Erdogan raised Kashmir issue at the UNGA in 2019 undermining several bilateral agreements signed with India in the past acknowledging the fact that Kashmir is a bilateral issue which should be resolved as per Shimla agreement. Welcoming Turkey’s support, Prime Minister Imran Khan began to profess Turkic origins of Pakistan.

Last year February, Erdogan reiterated that Kashmir was as important to Turkey as it is to Pakistan. Drawing semblance to events of Turkish independence movement, he said, “And now we feel the same about Kashmir today. It was Canakkale yesterday and Kashmir today, there is no difference between the two”.

Vitiating all the possibilities of a second ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagarno-Karabakh region, Turkey and Pakistan jumped into fray in support of Azerbaijan. According to reports, along side Turkish forces, Pakistan has sent Islamist Jihadis to fight with the Azerbaijan forces². Though Pakistan dismissed the reports as ‘speculative and baseless’, Armenian Prime Minister in an interview confirmed Pakistani troops involvement in the war³. Till date, Pakistan doesn’t recognise Armenia for its hostilities with Azerbaijan and Turkey as a mark of solidarity. Some Turkish news agencies have hailed the diplomatic and military cooperation between these three countries.

Consolidating the friendship, three countries launched trilateral cooperation in 2017. In the second trilateral meeting of foreign ministers at Islamabad in January 13^th, countries issued a Joint Declaration. It expressed concerns over India’s attempts to “change the demographic structure of Jammu and Kashmir” and called for “a just sustainable, realistic and mutually acceptable settlement of  the Cyprus issue as well as the issues in the Aegan and the East Mediterranean”. They assured each other support on core issues.

Turkey is deepening military ties with both Azerbaijan and Pakistan. Indeed, Turkish made drones-Bayrakhtar won the war for Azerbaijan and positioned Turkey as the drone super power of the World. Pakistan-Azerbaijan joint exercises is on cards.

Pakistan and Turkey signed a defence agreement worth $1.5 billion in 2018 for four MILGEM-class war ships. Turkey has agreed to provide upgrades to Pakistan’s five French-origin Agosta-90B submarines for $350 million. Islamabad has agreed to buy 30 T129 ATAK helicopters from Ankara⁴. Facing sanctions from the West, Pakistan is diversifying its defence acquisitions and turning to China and Turkey. Pakistan makes 70% of defence imports from China. In 2017, Turkey purchased 52 Mushshak training aircrafts from Pakistan.

Another dimension to the burgeoning synergy between Turkey and Pakistan is Erdogan’s intent to acquire nuclear weapons.  In 2019, Erdogan stated, “Some countries have missiles with nuclear war heads, and not just one or two. I, however, am not supposed to have missiles with nuclear heads. I do not accept this.”⁵ Pakistan is lone nuclear Muslim country and Turkey has four Russian built nuclear reactors for use managed by Turkish Atomic Energy Authority. It has rich Uranium deposits. Though there aren’t any conclusive reports of Pakistan aiding Turkey is developing nuclear weapons, the high-profile activity between two countries is really a suspect.

In December 2020, Turkish-Pakistan High Level Military Dialogue Group are reported to have discussed the main agenda of nuclear delivery technology and systems. The delegation headed by Pakistan’s Defence Secretary has met top Turkish Army officials and defence companies. Another aspect that featured the meeting were transfer of military technology and UAV.

A report by International Institute for Strategic Studies underscored Turkey’s history of serving as hub for Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear activities wherein Turkish companies facilitated AQ Khan to import of nuclear material and centrifuge parts from Europe⁵. The report indicated that Turkey could be possessing required centrifuges for Uranium enrichment.

In the aftermath of 2016 failed coup attempt, Turkey has reportedly ramped up military ties with Pakistan in terms of training mercenary pilots to fly F-16s. Turkey’s role in funding the radical organisations and its attempts to lure Indian Muslims with the help of surrendered ISIS to these indoctrination centres is already well-documented⁶.

Turkey-Pakistan’s rapidly growing strategic alliance is bound to have strategic repercussions in the South Asia and Middle East. With US pulling away from Middle East, Turkey is becoming an active player forging new opportunistic alliances. By meddling in Syrian war, counter revolutions in Egypt, stationing troops in Libya and competing for gas resources in the East Mediterranean. Turkey’s aggressive posturing has threatened peace and security in the Middle East.

With perennial cross-border terrorism, Pakistan is disrupting regional peace in South Asia. Spurned by the US, Turkey and China are now allying with China. Cognisant of Turkey’s geographical location as important transit hub, China is making infrastructure investments. Beijing has invested heavily in Pakistan under CPEC to foster its global connectivity ambitions.

Interestingly, despite their overpowering ambitions for Political Islam, both Turkey and Pakistan have consciously toned down their rhetoric and remained silent towards China’s excesses towards Uighurs. Indeed, they are roping in China to construct the railway corridor ITI (Istanbul, Tehran, Islamabad) extending from China to Istanbul.

Strengthening the alliance further Turkey is all set to bail out Pakistan from FATF next week. In a World strained by massive overhaul of geopolitical alliances, the emerging Turkey-Pakistan axis is bound to complicate it further.

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