Is Myanmar Coup Beijing’s furtive design?

 

Dashing all hopes of peaceful power transition, the hall mark of a thriving democracy, military junta in Myanmar seized power in coup d’etat. During the pre-dawn hours on Feb 1^st, hours before the installation of the new government Myanmar military, known as Tatmadaw detained State Counsellor Aaun San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint along with many legislators. Soon all the communication channels including the media and internet connectivity was temporarily severed across the country. Broadcasts were restricted to military’s Myawaddy TV channel.

To this effect, Military announced one-year State of Emergency and installed Myint Swe as the acting President.  The Commander-in-Chief and mastermind of the coup Min Aung Hlaing was made over-all charge of Legislative, Judicial and executive affairs.

Since last week, Myanmar junta dropped enough hints about an impending coup. Countries like the US, Britain, Australia, New Zealand even warned the military against the seizure of power. Countries saw it coming and hence the news of coup wasn’t a shock.

The latest military action, first since 1988, bearing all the hallmarks of a putsch justified its interference on the grounds of threat to democracy under article 417 of the constitution promulgated in 2008 which allows for declaration of the state of emergency in conditions that threaten to “disintegrate the union or disintegrate national solidarity”.

The Constitution drawn up by the military, reserves a quarter of the seats in both the houses for the military appointees.  To perpetuate its absolute control, military retained even the key portfolios of home affairs, border issues and defence under its ambit. Since 1962, when the civilian government was last deposed and military regime was established, Myanmar despite its preferred position of international isolation depended on military grants from China.

To downsize military dependence and drift to the West, military instituted the charade of semi-democracy setup in Myanmar. Soon they released Suu Kyi, “icon of democracy” from house arrest in 2010 and made Suu Kyi’s NLD (National League of Democracy) a stakeholder. As a part of the reforms process, NLD was allowed to register as political party for by-elections in 2012. Of the 44 seats it contested in Parliamentary by-elections NLD won 43 seats.

Convinced of military endeavors and Myanmar’s transition towards democracy, perceiving it as a useful addition to his strategic “Pivot to Asia” Obama administration ended its pariah status. Lifting arms embargo and sanctions, Obama made first state visit to Myanmar in 2012.

Buoyed by people’s acceptance, NLD registered a historic victory in 2015 elections. Denied the Presidentship for marrying a foreigner, Suu Kyi controlled to wield power as the State Counsellor and revived Myanmar’s engagement with the West. Having emerged as the credible civilian voice, Suu kyi wanted to bring about slew of constitutional reforms to limit military powers.

To slowly bring about complete civilian control, she began to defend human rights abuse of the military. She refused to condemn the atrocities against the Rohingyas and even travelled to International Court of Justice to be on the side of the military. Setting aside the past ill-treatment meted out to her by the Army, she sided with them and defended them at the international platform and undermined the alleged “genocide” of Rohingyas as internal conflict. Her remarks surprised many and shattered her image as the “icon of democracy”. By defending the indefensible and becoming the face of military, she destroyed her credibility whatever was left in the international community.

Suu Kyi kow-towed military anticipating a political favour on institutional reforms. She proposed some constitutional amendments to curb the political powers of military which was were put to vote¹ for the first time in March 2020. All of them were rejected and denounced by the Parliament. Suu Kyi’s gambit failed.

Rohingya crisis has toppled the apple cart of foreign investments into Myanmar. Plagued by the quagmire of poor investment scenario and increasing international censure over the Rohingya issue, Suu Kyi turned to China for financial and diplomatic assistance. COVID has further deepened Myanmar’s dependence on China. To keep economy afloat, Suu Kyi signed a raft of agreements related to China’s BRI. Critically at this juncture, military openly flagged China for arming and funding insurgents in the Northern region. Military eventually grew wary of China.

In November 2020, NLD clinched a landslide in the elections winning 396 of the 476 seats trouncing the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), military’s electoral proxy. USDP bagged 33 seats in the November 8^th elections. Several military leaders lost the elections while NLD made new inroads winning 83% of the contested parliamentary seats.

Suu Kyi’s winning streak has unsettled the military. Her growing popularity among the majority Buddhists was perceived as threat by generals. USDP’s election drubbing frustrated the junta. Perceiving it as an assault on their autonomy, military complained of massive voter fraud. Though Myanmar election commission rejected allegations of “voting malpractice”. Military persisted with their claims.

Owing to Suu Kyi’s burgeoning popularity and electoral consolidation the already frayed relations between the state counsellor and Commander-in-chief hit a rock bottom. As per sources, Suu Kyi hasn’t spoken to Aung Hlaing for over a year. This deepening distress and burgeoning political distance has seeded distrust. Also, Suu Kyi’s political rise presented a roadblock to the political ambitions of Aung Hlaing who dreamed of presidentship. Incidentally Aung Hlaing’s whose term is extended is set to expire by July this year.

Together the widening rift between the civilian administration and military junta has culminated in a coup. Paving way for a dictatorial regime, military crucified the blossoming democracy through the veritable Coup.

Even as real reasons for the coup aren’t clear, it is bound to have implicit domestic repercussions, like- throttling of democratic process in entirety, return to authoritarianism, economic recession and resurgence of insurgent movements besides creating a flutter in chaotic geopolitics arena as well.

The West condemned the coup and the US administration has threatened to re impose sanctions and described the detention of Suu Kyi as “direct assault on country’s transition to democracy and the rule of law” and said “the international community should come together in one voice to press the Burmese military to immediately relinquish the power they seized”².

Expectedly, China’s response to coup is muted. Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin hoped that all parties would preferably handle their “differences and maintain political stability”. Xinhua described coup as “a major cabinet reshuffle”³.

In this context, the visit of Chinese foreign Minister Wang Yi to Myanmar last month to discuss collaboration with Myanmar’s Commander-in-Chief for BRI projects assumes lot of significance.

Against the popular perception of Tatmadaw being red with China for its alleged weapons supply to armed insurgent groups, disturbed by Suu Kyi’s increasing popularity among the Buddhist majority and Chinese administration, to regain absolute control military may have considered clipping the extending tentacles of Suu Kyi.

Though the prospect of seeking Chinese approval for a coup by military junta might be unfounded, China’s knack for capitalising on an opportunity can’t rule out its consent. Myanmar is a strategic alternative to China for the US-controlled Straits of Malacca to ensure uninterrupted supplies of resources.

Certainly, the meeting between Wang and Hlaing may have been a trigger for the coup. Removal of civilian government would warrant imposition of sanctions which in turn can increase Tatmadaw’s dependency on China. Beijing can use this leverage for its geopolitical goal of encircling India. As of now, China has already penetrated Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. By roping in Bangladesh and Myanmar which share porous border with India, China can accomplish its task of entrapping India.

With the balance of power tilting in favour of a civilian government, prompting a coup, China might have reliably promised to shield the military from international censure at various forums. Even if denied outright assurance by China, military might have banked on Beijing’s ambitions to expand its influence in Asia in the event of a coup.

Indeed, by way of offering diplomatic clout, China can egg on Tatmadaw, instrumental in reining on North East insurgent groups sheltered in Myanmar territory to act at its behest. Lending a tacit support to coup, China could severe Myanmar’s fledging relation with the West and other countries like India, Japan and Singapore. Beijing can even open another front against India through Myanmar.

Some Indian analysts alluded to similar events in 1962, when China waged a war against India after allowing the fall of civilian government in Myanmar. India expressed “deep concern” over the coup. MEA issued a statement saying, “India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. We are monitoring the situation closely”⁴.

Last year October, Indian Foreign Minister Harsh Shringla and Army Chief MM Naravane travelled to Myanmar to buttress defence cooperation. India gifted INS Sindhuvir which was commissioned on 73^rd anniversary of Myanmar Navy. With this, Myanmar has become the first country to receive a submarine from India. In 2019, both countries held joint exercises IMNEX in Bay of Bengal. India is currently training Myanmar personnel. Myanmar army has handed over 22 insurgents to India last year. India has resurrected ties with Tatmadaw and fast-tracked infrastructure projects as well.

The current coup is a real tight walk for India. By joining voice with the West in condemning military, India might risk its relationship with the military. But for better or worse, India should bat for restoration of democratic regime, since a popular elected government might stall the Chinese dreams of turning Myanmar into a safe operation zone for China.

Though the apparent cause of Myanmar coup is still a matter of speculation, China’s veto on a joint statement condemning Myanmar coup at UNSC should offer enough clues…!!

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