Just days after a closely contested
US Presidential elections, India is also witnessing a nail-biting number
crunching game in the Bihar assembly elections. Unfortunately, the similarities
don’t end there. The exalted liberal brigade, uncannily firmed a theory that
akin to Joe Biden, Tejashwi Yadav of RJD would romp home victory. Besides
predicting a landslide and sufficiently pushing this narrative, they spelled
doom for the NDA. Interestingly, in what can be a repeat of the US election
scenario, none of the exit polls in India hasn’t ever predicted a possible
victory for the NDA.
In contravention to the prophesised
theories, Bihar assembly elections turned out be a closely contested affair
with the outcomes down to the wire. The wafer- thin margins sealing the fate of
the candidates has kept election watchers on the edge of the seat. Bihar polls
registered a fairly decent turnout of 57% despite the COVID. But the wait for
the results has turned into a long-drawn affair. The 63% increase in polling
booths due to COVID restrictions, has caused much delay in declaration of poll
outcomes. Since the beginning NDA maintained a fragile lead, giving anxious
moments to Mahaghatbhandan. But by and large, the massive swing in the outcomes
has changed has turned into a nail-biting affair.
At the time of writing, NDA
comprising of, BJP, JDU, Jitin Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular)
and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party have crossed the majority mark. BJP
with a strike rate of 66% has reiterated that Modi magic is still intact. Given
the poor show of JD (U) afflicted by the anti-incumbency factor, BJP’s stellar
performance has saved the NDA from a defeat.
Enthused by Joe Biden’s triumph,
the Liberal brigade in India, inundated a narrative drawing parallels between
the US elections and Bihar polls, where there exists none, declared the outcome
of the Bihar assembly elections as referendum on Modi.
Since Modi’s spectacular return to
power in 2019 with absolute majority, NDA executed landmark legislations like
abrogation of article 370, triple talaq, CAA which unsettled the liberals.
Upping ante against the government, the brigade whipped up tensions and
orchestrated communal riots to push nation into unrest. Sabotaging this
nefarious agenda, BJP government came out unscathed. Stung by COVID pandemic
and a punitive Chinese transgression across the LAC, BJP government entered a
mission mode to wade through these exigencies.
COVID pandemic unprecedented global
disruption. Many world leaders were found either biting dust or facing public
ignominy for poor COVID management. In sharp contrast, Prime Minister Modi,
leading a country of 1.35 billion with limited health resources seemed to have
fared better. Through national wide lockdown, during the initial stages of
viral outbreak, Modi strategized to curtail viral spread. This unannounced lockdown
has caused severe distress and economic hardships to various sections of the
society. Sufferings of the migrant workers, loss of livelihoods across the
country has emerged as major challenge. Prime Minister faced severe criticism
putting the lives and livelihoods of several millions of workers at risk.
Government’s financial measures and the “Atma Nirbhar” project was derided as
too little too late.
Left-liberals continued to attack
the government for the insufficient measures, economic recession and
jeopardizing lives of migrants. Despite the scathing attacks, Modi’s popularity
remained intact. A Lokniti-CSDS survey indicated that 78% were satisfied with
Prime Minister’s handling of pandemic 1. Undermining the national reality,
opposition continued to slander which gained more ground after Joe Biden’s
victory. They even anticipated a gloom and doom for the NDA in the 2024
elections.
Most Indian media exit poll surveys
went horribly wrong. Out of the bye-elections held for the 59 seats in 11
states, BJP won 40 seats. With a clean sweep in Gujarat (8/8), Telangana (1/1)
and 6 out of 7 seats in UP, BJP has demonstrated its pan-India presence and
electoral dominance. While this performance can alone indicate the resounding
consolidation of BJP and its massive approval among the populace, the outcome
of Bihar assembly elections has only reinforced BJP’s unhindered poll run.
The major takeaways from the Bihar
assembly polls have been, trouncing JD (U), BJP emerged as the single largest
party in the NDA. Anti-incumbency has stung Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), a strike
rate of 37% is a reflection of people’s disenchantment. Unlike in the past,
Nitish’s leverage has declined and he can no longer have his way. Disapproving
Nitish, LJP’s Chirag Paswan walked out the NDA, and contested alone. His smear
campaign against Nitish dented NDA’s electoral outcome. Claiming to be the
Hanuman of Modi, Paswan entered the fray and gained a single seat but damaged
the JD (U)’s winning prospects in close to 40 seats. Earning the reputation of
‘vote-cutter’ he ended up hurting NDA’s electoral gains.
Tejashwi Yadav, in absence of Lalu
Prasad Yadav, single-handedly led the party in the elections and emerged as
single largest party. RJD made most of its popularity in the rural areas and
put up a strong fight with huge winning margins against the JD(U). Its alliance
partner Congress proved to be dampener yet again. With a paltry 9.5% of vote
share, Congress is galloping towards its extinction as a national party.
Another important development has been resurgence of the Leftist parties, which
speaks of scores of people who couldn’t benefit from the social welfare
schemes.
AIMIM contested the Bihar elections
in alliance with BSP, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, Suhel
Dev’s Bharatiya Samaj Party and Devendra Yadav’s Samajwadi Janata Dal
(Democratic) clinched five seats in the Seemanchal region which went to polls
in the final phase. Contesting 24 seats AIMIM smartly encashed Muslim votes
which went for Mahaghatbhandhan. Muslim consolidation earned AIMIM five seats.
Much to the dismay of the liberals,
BJP remains a strong force to reckon with steering their alliance partners to
victory. BJP is always accused of being unfair to its alliance partners.
Contrary to the perception, alliance partners who are unrelenting in
criticising BJP have disproportionately, reaped electoral gains seeking votes
in the name of Modi. Alliance partners continue to extract their pound of flesh
but fail to acknowledge it openly. As a national party, it is high time, BJP
grooms second rung regional leaders and slowly refrain entering alliance and
start contesting alone in states.
As always, the street intelligence
has trounced the predictions of Khan market elites. Bihar poll verdict once
again underscored the undiminished popularity of Modi.
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