Ethiopia, led by a Nobel Peace Winner, on the brink of Civil War

It has been more than three weeks and the ethnic conflict in Ethiopia is showing no signs of abatement. While the exact number of deaths which now runs into thousands is not clearly known, over 40,000 people mostly from the northern most province of Ethiopia, Tigray are arriving in Sudan triggering a humanitarian crisis along Ethiopia-Sudan border.

UN appeals for mediation has hardly found any takers. Though African Union (AU) announced to send an envoy to mediate, Ethiopian regime countered the report as fake. Peace eludes the region with Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy’s, declaring that the campaign has entered “Final Phase”. Government forces have issued a 72-hr ultimatum to TPLF (Tigray Peoples Liberation Front) to surrender. The ultimatum ends today and signs of easing of tensions are at large.

As of now, government troops captured the city of Adrigat and inching towards Mekele the capital of Tigray province, the heart of the conflict. In retaliation, the rebel forces have reportedly destroyed airport in the ancient town of Axum, a UNESCO world heritage site¹. Auxm, is claimed to be Oldest centres of Christianity and houses ruins.

Ethnic conflicts are not new to Ethiopia. Aside the conflict, the role of two individuals in now under scanner, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Peace Prize winner and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of World Health Organisation. Since the outbreak of Wuhan virus, Tedros dominated news for bad reasons than good.  Tedros served as the Health Minister of Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016 when TPLF was dominant force and was part of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

In the wake of brewing conflict, Ethiopian Army chief, alleged that Tedros, the most influential Tigrayan is attempting to secure weapons and backing of international forces for TPLF². Though Tedros quickly denounced these charges, given his complicity in the pandemic spread and the extensive one-sided account of the Ethiopian conflict by internationally reputed journals, people are confounded.

Abiy on the other hand, was conferred 2019 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his stellar efforts to restore peace and resolving the prolonged border dispute with neighbouring Eritrea. By bringing together 110 million Ethiopians belonging to over 80 ethnicities and introducing a wave of reforms like- removing censors on media, release of political prisoners, welcoming exiles back home and instituting faith in democratic process, Abiy showed a promise of transforming the country riddled by ethnic disputes and long-standing conflicts with neighbouring Eritrea.

Over the past 60 years, Ethiopia bore the brunt of successive repressive regimes that crushed dissent. Barely two years into power, ushering country into a realm of reforms, Abiy’s won plaudits from across the globe. Reposing faith in his reformist zeal, Nobel Committee, perhaps, pre-maturely heaped highest honour as a larger message. A year after the award, Ethiopia reached a boil, inching towards civil war and the country is on brink.

Abiy, an ethnic Oromo, a software engineer and former Army intelligence officer belonging to the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) one of the coalition partners of EPRDF clinched power in 2018. TPLF representing Tigrayans- comprising of 6% of the population, has been the dominant party of EPRDF. Two years into power, differences between the four coalition partners of EPRDF began to spiral. To consolidate power, and steer away from an ethic federalism bequeathed by constituted by earlier TPLF regime, Abiy launched a political platform, Prosperity Party (PP). He called upon all the ethnic parties to join PP. Threatened by Abiy’s rise, TPLF felt slighted and refused to join the coalition.  

Tensions and conflict are not new to Ethiopia, whose history is replete of repressive regimes. Since the imperial rule of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1934 which was briefly disrupted by the Mussolini’s conquest and eventually take over of the country between 1936 and 1941 and Halie Selassie’s return to power till 1974, Ethiopia was under dictatorship.

In 1974 following a civil unrest a provincial administrative committee of soldiers termed “Dreg” instituted a socialist government headed by Mengistu Haile Mariam to administer. He unleashed “Red Terror” that claimed 750,000 lives. In early 1980s the Marxist-Leninist group along with indigenous independent movements which later transformed into EPRDF, rebelled against the Mengistu government and forced him to flee the country³.

In 1991 EPRDF formed the government with Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Eritrea also gained independence. But OLF soon parted ways. By 1994, a new constitution, working through a federal political system granted “all people’s the right of self-determination”. But this arrangement failed to empower the provinces and they could exercise their autonomy as long as it didn’t interfere with the interests of the EPRDF.

For all the grand talk of ethnic balance, EPRDF which ruled Ethiopia disproportionately made TPLF powerful. TPLF, the main force behind the guerrilla war and the rebellion which ousted the Dreg remained supreme. TPLF led by powerful men and strong army could turn down any government.

In 2016, following the intense backlash from the majority Oromo community though TPLF acceded Abiy’s leadership, it retained firm grip over the governance machinery. Most of the administrative jobs and other power positions were held by Tigrayans.

Following TPLF’s refusal to join the PP, for the first time, Tigrayans found themselves out of power. Concerned of their deteriorating influence, TPLF cried foul after Abiy announced postponement of elections due to surging Wuhan virus cases. Much to the consternation of the government, TPLF went ahead and held elections in September. A month after elections, Abiy sent a new Northern Command General to Tigray, but the government rejected his authority and sent him back.

Tensions roiled after Abiy declared the elections illegal and disbanded the government. He purged Tigrayan leaders from the government and riled them up. Soon Tigrayan troops began defecting the Northern Command of Federal government and making away with arms and ammunition. Battle hardened able Tigrayans are joining TPLF rebels.

On November 4^th, TPLF Ethiopian National Defence Forces base and tried to sped away with artillery and military equipment. Federal government declared, “the last redline has been crossed” and ordered air strikes and military campaign against TPLF⁵. Soon, Tigray borders were closed, communication snapped and media was blacked out.

In the meanwhile, the murder of popular singer Haacaaluu towards the end of June, considered as cultural asset of Ethiopia, postponement of elections, arrest of opposition leaders on charges of incitement of tensions, fuelled resentment among the people who hit the streets. Federal government used force, restrained press and ordered closure of Oromo media outlet to contain the spreading unrest. These acts raised apprehensions about the Abiy’s stated democratic reforms⁴.

Cofounding worst fears of analysts, the conflict snowballed raising fears of drawing in neighbouring Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan. Meanwhile, conflicts erupted in neighbouring Amhara region over reports of illegal detentions and arrests.

Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads with each other over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This conflict might accentuate existing dissensions. Having made peace with Eritrea, President Isaias is believed to join hands with Abiy in their common fight against TPLF. Just a week into the ethnic strife, TPLF launched missiles on the Eritrean capital Asmara and drew Eritrea into this conflict⁶.

Eritrea harbours UAE bases and tensions in the country can destabilise the Horn of Africa. Sudan has already deployed its forces along the Tigrayan-Sudan border. Sudan’s ousted dictator Omar Bashir has close links with TPLF. Incidentally, if the war intensifies and Sudan which has territorial dispute with Ethiopia opens borders for rebels and extends support to TPLF, then the disaster will engulf the entire region.

US considers Ethiopia as an important ally in the region and can play a crucial role in mediating the conflict.  By removing Sudan from the terrorism list and extending $33 million humanitarian assistance⁷ and supporting Egypt in Nile water negotiations Trump administration has tampered America’s ties with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is vital for the political, economic stability and security of the region. Countries like China, US, Japan invested heavily in Ethiopia. Last fortnight, Russia signed an agreement with Sudan to establish a naval base close to Port of Sudan⁸. Clearly, Horn of Africa is slowly turning into a hot bed for geopolitical confabulations. Moreover, straddling the major trade transit routes of the Red Sea, peace and stability of Horn of Africa is extremely important.

Prolonged conflict in an ethnic charged Ethiopian country can foment secessionist movements especially in Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, Somali and trigger a civil war. A civil war, can potentially suck in all major countries in the region.

The current conflict is an uphill battle for Abiy forces which against well-trained TPLF rebels. With a faction of Federal troops already fighting Islamic insurgency in Somalia, and another contingent deployed along the Sudan border, Ethiopia is already stretched for resources and facilities.

Prolonged conflict prompting withdrawal of forces from Somalia can plunge the region into chaos and concomitant exodus of refugees during the trying pandemic times can set off an unmanageable humanitarian crisis.

Swift negotiations and intervention of responsible international players can possibly avert a crisis from unfolding.

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