Amidst
speculations of Modi’s “neighborhood
first policy” failing in effectively garnering friendship of immediate
neighbors, Nepalese Prime Minister Khadge Prasad Sharma Oli, adhering to the
tradition of making first official foreign trip, was in New Delhi, on three-day
visit from April 6th to 8th. His visit comes a day after
Maldives snubbed India by asking New Delhi to take back a helicopter operating
from the Addu atoll. Around the same time, having won local elections,
opposition parties supported by Mahinda Rajapaksha, former President of Sri
Lanka, initiated a no-confidence motion against the current India-friendly
Ranil Wickramasinghe’s government. Both these events further raised serious doubts
about dwindling India’s influence in the neighborhood.
Oli has
taken over as 27th Prime Minister of Nepal for the second time in
February this year. Oli, known to be
pro-Chinese leader of the Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxists Leninists
(CPN-UML) joined hands with Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) of Communist Party
of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and other 13 parties to fight in Parliamentary
elections held in December last year. The leftist coalition combined swept elections
clinching close to two-thirds majority, annihilating the dominance of the right-wing
party Nepali Congress (NC) of Sher Bahadur Deuba. The left alliance of Nepal
for long has been pro-Chinese and Oli effectively stitched an alliance with
various leftist groups that thrived on the anti-India sentiment. Days after
taking over as Prime Minister, Oli indicated his authoritarian
ambitions by removing a Supreme Court judge, Parajuli much against the
solidarity of his fellow judges. He brought investigative agencies under his
control and appointed his trusted loyalists to key positions. Indicating that
Supreme Court judges have connections with NGOs or political parties, he is
intent on scuttling independence of judiciary.
Armed with brute majority the left coalition is already invoked fears of
plunging country into a dictatorial mode. But by and large, nations hailed the
elections for an overwhelming majority can end Nepal’s long travails of
political instability. Additionally, Constitution has introduced new provisions
wherein parties are barred from raising no-confidence motion against less than
two years old government. Indian
sentiment had always played an immense role in Nepali elections. Massive defeat
of Nepali Congress, perceived to be pro-Indian has been a big blow to India’s
foreign policy. Unperturbed by the results, Indian delegation headed by
Minister for External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj visited Nepal to congratulate the
new dispensation and held talks with leftist coalition leaders expressing
India’s willingness to work with new government. Towards, the end she met
leaders of Nepali Congress.
The
14-month long Madhesis agitation which led to blockade of the Indo-Nepalese
border not only crippled the transit of essential goods and services but also
generated intense backlash against India. This agitation has critically undone
Indian good will of rushing services within hours after Nepal was struck by
massive earthquake in 2014 and fomented anti-Indian sentiment. At the height of
agitation, Oli, in 2015, has turned to China and signed 10 MoUs including the
landmark transit and transportation agreement. This included extension of
railway line from China through Tibet to reduce dependence of the land-locked
Himalayan country on India. With the agitation halting the Nepali trade through
the Kolkata port 1000km from Nepal, Nepal approached China to use the Tianjin
port 3000km away. Lately, Nepal broke Indian monopoly on internet services and
teamed up Chinese services. From January, Chinese cyber companies have begun
their operations in Nepal. Thus, Nepal steadily drifted towards China. For
long, Tibet has served as an outer boundary while Nepal constituted the inner
boundary between India and China. With Nepal slowly closing into China by
signing OBOR in May 2017, New Delhi began to feel the heat. Growing Chinese
penetration into Nepal, a country with which India shares porous borders can be
a pernicious threat to India. Also, several rivers originating from Nepal flow
down into Ganga have huge consequences in terms of ecology and hydrothermal
potential for India. Chinese burgeoning influence is now posing a formidable
threat to centuries old Indo-Nepalese ties built on interdependence, trust, and
friendship.
Oli served
as prime minister for a year between 2015-16 when the blockade was underway
after the new constitution was amended. Defiant Oli refused to make amendments
in the constitution to accommodate demands of Madhesis as a result, Prachanda
withdrew support allegedly at the behest of India after which his regime has
collapsed. Now, he is back in power with a sweeping majority and understandably,
he might not have taken Indian role during the Madhesis agitation and
subsequent loss of Prime Ministerial position kindly. Besides his affiliations
to communist parties amply levitate him towards China.
Independent
India as inheritors of the British legacy, largely believed South Asia to be its
sphere of influence. The British ably defended paramountcy in the region by
offering subsidies and refraining from interfering in the internal affairs of
the protectorates. In return, smaller kingdoms pledged loyalty and never
succumbed to rival powers. Independent India faltered in realigning itself to
new realities got inadvertently drawn into domestic politics. This has
typically been the case with Nepal. Though India and Nepal are closely
connected by religion, culture and language, power asymmetry began to creep
into what should have been a “special
relationship”. Indo-Nepal friendship treaty of 1950, allowed free movement
of people and goods between two nations and collaboration in foreign policy and
defense related issues. The deep interdependence and connectivity, instead of
building trust, bred resentment. Afflicted by “small country syndrome” Nepal felt intimidated and insecure and
negative narratives began to feed into Indo-Nepalese bilateral relations. India
has cared little to address Nepal’s insecurities which eventually snow balled
into “anti-India sentiments”.
Besides, India’s inability to deliver projects on time has severely exacerbated
the fissures. Sandwiched between two big Asian giants, Nepal began switch sides
from India and drifted towards China to “stand
up” against India. While Nepal’s political dispensation has been highly
critical of India’s interference in Nepal’s internal affairs, it is widely
believed that China from behind the scenes managed to bring various left-wing
parties in Nepal to fight jointly in the elections.
Oli’s visit
to India comes at a time China’s forays into south Asian counties are at hilt
and Indo-Nepalese relations mired in clouds of mistrust. Besides, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid
Khaqan Abbasi’s visit to Kathmandu in March after the new regime took charge added
more fuel to India’s apprehensions. Setting the tone for his visit, days ahead
of India trip, Oli announced in the Nepal parliament that he will not sign any
agreement with India that would, “go
against national interests of Nepal”. “We want to maintain dignified
relationship with India while desisting anything that would be disgraceful to
the nation”. So, essentially the visit has been an attempt to reset ties
and bridge the trust deficit. India on its part, rolled out red carpet welcome to
Oli who was received by home minister Rajnath Singh at the airport.
Both the
prime ministers held talks and reviewed the entire
spectrum of multifaceted bilateral ties and resolved to work together
to take the relationship to “newer
heights on the basis of equality, mutual trust, respect and benefit”. The two prime ministers have inaugurated the
Integrated Check Post at Birgunj, Nepal and hoped that its early
operationalization will enhance greater movement of goods and people. They
witnessed the ground-breaking ceremony of Motihari-Amelkhunj cross border
petroleum pipeline at Motihari, India. Build at a cost of 200 crores, the 69-km
pipeline will deliver 2 million tonnes per annum of petroleum products to
Nepal. To impart new dynamism into the relationship, both countries signed
three agreements. India-Nepal: New Partnership in Agriculture, Expanding Rail
Linkages: Connecting Raxaul in India to Kathmandu in Nepal, Connectivity
between India and Nepal through inland waterways. This electric rail line might
eventually pave way for a seamless connectivity with the Chinese built
Shigatse-Khatmandu line. India has promised to complete the construction of two
rail lines-Jayanagar-Bijalpura-Bardidas and Jogbani-Biratnagar in Nepal by this
year. Plans for building three more rail lines is on books. In tune with
Himalayan country’s new slogan of “Samriddha
Nepal, sukhi Nepali”, to boost land-locked Nepal’s economic rejuvenation
and reduce dependency on India, countries have given new thrust to energy,
connectivity and transit issues.
During
Oli’s visit India expressed willingness to walk extra mile to bridge the trust
deficit. But Oli in his speech at a
civic reception in New Delhi said, “Relations with neighbors differ from that of others. Good
neighborliness demands harmonious co-existence forever. And trust is the
cementing factor. It derives its strength from the observance of such
fundamental principles as equality, justice, mutual respect and benefit as well
as non-interference. As friendly neighbors, our two countries need to be aware
of, and respect for, each other’s concerns and sensitivities. Nepal has not
allowed its land to be used against the sovereign interests of India. We are
firm in our resolve to maintain this position. And it is natural that we expect
similar assurance from India”. With
respect to 2015 blockade he said “we need
to ensure that bilateral as well as regional connectivity and transit
agreements run smoothly without interruption at all times. Recourse to
obstacles in the movement of goods, services and people should have no place in
today’s interconnected World and in interconnected neighborhood”. Clearly
Oli has pinned blame on India for the agitation and its aftermath. The tenor of
his speech indicates that Nepalese leadership is still mistrustful of India. It
is unfortunate that India’s generosity towards Nepal is shrouded by
intimidation and suspicion. While, Nepal is entitled to bemoan power asymmetry,
by drawing closer to China, a much bigger neighbor than India, isn’t Nepal at a
bigger risk of surrendering its national interests?
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