President Xi has inaugurated the
annual Boao Forum popular as Asia’s Davos on April 10th against the
backdrop of US-China trade tariff wars. Allaying fears of escalation of trade
war whose reverberations could have an impact on other economies as well, in line
with theme of the Forum, “An open and
innovative Asia for a world of greater prosperity” Xi promised to increase
market access, open financial and insurance sectors, lower import tariffs and
strengthen the IPR protection. At the face of it, countries welcomed these
assurances but were little skeptical. Managing Director of IMF Christina Lagarde,
who attended the forum, urged China to stop the OBOR (One Belt One Road) and warned
partners of the potential risks of this colossal global
connectivity initiative. While the
initiative can provide much needed infrastructure financing to countries, she
added “these ventures can also lead to
problematic increase in debt, potentially limiting other spending as debt
service rises and creating balance of payment challenges”. Last year, Centre for
Global Development warned that eight countries part of OBOR, an
infrastructure initiative in which China is estimated to invest $8 trillion
across Asia, Africa and Europe. The countries Pakistan, Laos, Mongolia,
Maldives, Djibouti, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are now placed in the
high-risk category of debt distress. While a tenuous report of OBOR or New Silk
Route is alarming, China is preparing to add yet another dimension to OBOR,
making it one belt one road one circle. China made no secret of its plans of
expanding OBOR to Arctic Circle is launching the Polar Silk Route. President Xi inaugurated OBOR in 2013 is now no
longer balking from expanding its presence in new arenas like deep sea, outer
space, polar regions. Breaching every possible frontier China has now jumped
into the fray bearing no holds. Reiterating China’s stake as “upcoming polar region power”, an
announcement, President Xi made on his to visit to Australia in 2014, China officially
incorporated Arctic in its official vision for maritime cooperation last year.
Power Play in Antarctic
Motivated by economic and strategic
interests, China is investing heavily to explore and exploit the resources in
the polar regions. China Daily once reported
that Xi expressed continued interest in cooperating with Australia and other
nations, to know and protect Antarctica. China observers maintained that while
Chinese officials deliberately avoided making any references about their
interests in exploiting polar resources, Chinese language material audaciously
campaign that Chinese investments in Antarctica are intended for tapping the
rich mineral resources. To this end, China held 40th Antarctica
Treaty Consultative Meeting in Beijing (ATCM) in Beijing last year which was
attended by representatives from 42 countries. Though China hasn’t issued a
White paper on its activities and plans for Antarctica, in less than 10 years
China vigorously expanded its infrastructure in the region. As a result, China
emerged as one of the very few countries that has influential position both
Arctic and Antarctic council.
As of now, China has four research
stations in Antarctic, two field camps, three air fields and set to unveil the
fifth base in Ross region area close to American station. It has second largest
number of people working in Antarctic. China is considerably expanding its
logistic capabilities in the Antarctic mostly around resource rich regions.
Though it hasn’t made any formal territorial claims to the region, three
Chinese bases lie in the Antarctic territorial claim of Australia. It is
steadily working towards obtaining Antarctica resource rights, governance rights
for peaceful exploitation. China is mulling
to possess the Antarctic Special Managed Area (ASMA) an area
designated for environmental protection to be under the state access or in
other terms, it wants to control a part of Antarctic and Southern Ocean.
Unlike its Antarctic aspirations,
China has given wings to its Arctic ambitions and released a white paper to reflect
its growing interests in Arctic region. China’s Arctic strategy is tailored to
further foreign trade and energy security. Almost 90% of global trade is
sea-borne and 70% of China’s energy imports travel by sea. To meet it growing
energy requirements and an edge in maritime trade, China has strengthened
shipping industry and now the gigantic shipping behemoth of China, COSCO, has
third largest container ship fleet. Fretful of the Malacca dilemma,
China constantly made efforts to explore an alternate route to strengthen
energy security. Further, the pirate
infested west African coast had turned the shipping along Suez Canal perilous.
Passage through Arctic besides, significantly reducing the distances between
China and Europe obviated the twin obstacles of pirate menace and Malaccan dilemma.
Arctic Ambitions
China, has been a forerunner in orchestrating
alternate strategies to stay ahead of the curve in consonance with changing
global scenarios. China which is extremely ambitious has been slowly working
towards attaining its strategic and military goals of invariably stretching its
boundaries to the maximum. After the stealth expansion in South China sea,
initially under the pretext of protecting its southern coastline, it began
controlling the shipping lanes and now it has developed all the geographical
features in the SCS into military bases. Global warming is causing faster
depletion of thick layers of ice in the Arctic circle and Climatologists now
predict that by 2050, Arctic might become amenable for shipping. Taking a lead
from these estimations, Chinese shipping companies are surveying the region to
assess accessibility for profitable shipping. Aside, offering an alternative
shipping route, the lure of natural gas reserves and rare earth minerals in
Artic has been an enticing factor for China. US Geological Survey estimates
that Arctic region holds 30% of world’s natural gas reserves and 13% of oil.
Building an Arctic Policy
China has been meticulously working
out Arctic strategy since 1990’s. In 1994, China bought an icebreaker from
Ukraine to navigate along the major shipping routes in Arctic. China obtained
membership in International Arctic Science Committee in 1996 and since 1999 it
has organized scientific expeditions in Arctic with its research vessel, Xue
Long. In 2004, China built Arctic Yellow River Station in Spitsbergen
Archipelago and conducted a week long first Arctic Science Summit in Asia in
2005. By 2017, China completed eight scientific expeditions in Arctic Ocean.
In 2013, first Chinese container
ship transited the North Sea Route to reach Rotterdam from Dalian in less than
a month’s time as against 45 days along the regular Suez Canal route. In the
same year China has become one of the 13 countries with observer status to the
Arctic Council which includes 8 permanent members. Permanent members
include-US, Russia, Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, and Denmark
(Greenland and Faroe Islands). By 2014, China devised a stratagem of promoting
OBOR by eulogizing, Ming Dynasty navigator Zheng He and his seven voyages to
Western seas. President Xi eventually peddled the narrative that Zheng He’s
fleet passed through Arctic seas and discovered Greenland and Iceland. To push
this anecdotal theory, China sought a cover under the theory of “1421: the year China discovered the World” a book written by British submarine commander, Gevin
Menzies. China even intensified its diplomacy with Arctic nations. In April
2016, Xi visited Finland, the current Chairman of Arctic Council enroute his
visit to Washington for a summit meet with Trump becoming the first President
to visit Nordic countries in 22 years. Within months, the first China-Finland Iron
Silk Road began operating. Both countries are now jointly building China’s
second ship breaker which will be ready by 2019. Xi made a brief stopover at
Alaska while going back to Beijing from US clinching a crucial agreement for
supply of LNG. Around the same time, Chinese delegation visited Iceland, the
upcoming chairman of council. Months later, Norwegian President made his first
visit to China after their relations soured over awarding Nobel Peace prize to
Liu Xioabo in 2010. Not satisfied with this high level diplomatic lobbying, in
January this year, China began to prop up the campaign of asserting itself as “near Arctic state” and
released a white paper subsequently citing its interest in “peace, stability, and sustainable
development”, a rhetoric which it has pushed along for its ambitious OBOR.
To pursue its Arctic goals, China
befriended Greenland which is economically weak and has great territorial
presence in the Arctic circle. China is making huge investments and planning to
set up permanent research station for satellite monitoring in Greenland.
Denmark controls Greenland. Danish authorities concerned of the China’s dubious
reputation of late has stopped China from making any investments in Greenland.
But if Greenland attains independence China will leave no stone unturned to
establish formidable influence over the country.
All the eight Arctic states have
territorial claims to the region and states outside Arctic region don’t have
territorial sovereignty in Arctic, but they have rights to conduct scientific
research, navigation, overflight, fishing and laying submarine cables and
pipelines. States party to Spitsbergen treaty (which includes India, China)
enjoy liberty of access and entry to specific areas of Arctic, right under
conditions of equality, can do scientific research, carry out production and
commercial activities like hunting, fishing and mining.
During cold war, this region had
been a theatre of power projection between the superpowers-US and Soviet Union.
From 2012, Russia has started refurbishing military bases in Arctic along the
north Scandinavian coastline into North Atlantic. To bolster its strategic
interests in the 21 million sq kilometer Arctic Circle China partnered with
Russia which has territorial claims to huge tracts of land in the region. China
is investing in Russian natural gas projects in Yamal Peninsula which is
progressing at a quicker pace. Russia indeed sent first shipment of LNG to
India through the Arctic waters along Bering Strait in March. China National
Petroleum Corporation holds 20% stakes in the project owned up Russian Oil
Giant Novatek and invested 9.9% finances. This route took two weeks less
compared to the shipping route to East Asia. Enthused by this success, Russia
is now starting production from Yamal LNG-2. Yamal in the local parlance meant,
“end of the world” where temperatures
hover around -50C making exploitation of oil extremely challenging. China is
providing the technical expertise and finances to Russia which is facing severe
financial crunch ever the Crimean annexation of 2014. China, a Permanent member
of UNSC, in its quest for seeking parity with US, wants to enter the new sphere
of Artic region, previously inaccessible to China to play a bigger role in
global and regional issues. With old players retreating, Beijing is intent on
filling that vacuum to play a leading role.
Concerns
Already, China’s aggressive
maritime expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, rapid militarization of the
man-made islands in the South China Sea are raising concerns among the smaller
countries in the region. Unraveling of a Polar Silk Route should be worrisome.
Smartly, calibrating the effects of global warming on the Arctic region, which
is the most underdeveloped region on the globe currently, China is stitching
friendship with all stake holders to buttress its influence. Besides the
burgeoning Sino-Russian cooperation in Arctic region may result in both
countries controlling the eastern and western gateways to Arctic impacting the
trade routes within both Pacific and Atlantic regions.
China having meticulously monopolizing
control over shipping routes along South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) is now
eyeing to control the Atlantic, which has been the exclusive domain of the
Western countries. Over the past few decades, China has been clandestinely
strengthening its dominance and while the West is caught unaware. As of now,
West has an upper hand in the Arctic Council with four of the member countries
being democratic nations and other being members of NATO. As of now, while
China’s Artic document is peppered with words similar to those in OBOR-“win-win
situation”, “cooperation” and “respect”. It is no secret that China has global
ambitions and its Arctic policy is a vehicle for building a Sino-centric world.
In a classic case of devil reciting scriptures, China promised to abide by
International rules-based order in its Artic policy document. But its vehement
refusal to abide by UNCLOS based rules in SCS belies its commitment towards the
norms set by the Arctic littorals for the region. While commercial shipping in
Arctic region can be a possible by 2040 at the earliest, China’s overtures and
heightened diplomatic activity clearly reflects its intentions of exploiting
the region for its gains. China pledged to work towards environment and
ecosystem protection, respect the jurisdiction enjoyed by Arctic states,
culture of indigenous people and uphold UNCLOS. Intriguingly, China has
ruthlessly infringed aforementioned objectives under the OBOR. Despite a long
history of perfidy to its credit, China promises to uphold all the
international norms in its official Arctic policy. Perhaps, time alone can
throw light on China’s subversive strategy !!!!
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