9th BRICS summit themed on “Stronger Partnership for a brighter future” held at Xiamen in
Fujian province of China concluded successfully yesterday. Xiamen Summit can be
reckoned as the most impactful of all BRICS meets for being instrumental in
forcing China for mutual disengagement of troops locked in the prolonged 73-day
Doklam standoff.
Genesis of BRICS
Acronym BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa that have come together a decade ago with an objective of
promoting the idea of “multipolar world”. But genesis of BRICS, relevance and
functioning are critiqued since its inception. In 2001 Chief economist of
Goldman Sachs Jim O Neil, in a research publication opined that 21st
century global economy will be dominated by fast growing developing economies
and coined the term BRIC. Taking a cue, in 2006, foreign ministers of these
countries met along the sidelines of UN General Assembly sessions at New York
and realized the prospect of BRIC grouping. Accordingly, in 2009, heads of BRIC
countries met for a summit meeting in Russia. In 2011, South Africa joined the group giving
the alliance its present name BRICS. Since 2009 BRIC summits were held
annually. Over years, BRICS alliance began to gain greater prominence due to
growing economic muscle (global share increased from 11% to 24% from 1990-2014)
now it is regarded as competitor to G-7. But the west has been skeptical of
BRICS objectives since all other BRICS nations other than India are headed by
authoritarian leaders. Some believe that India’s democratic credentials lends
credence to this grouping.
Despite criticisms and praises, international community can
hardly afford to ignore BRICS, home to 48% of global population. BRICS nations
having realized the need for greater economic cooperation, collectively
developed robust financial structures for mutual benefit- New Development Bank
(NDB) and The BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). Obliterating
criticisms of commentators, the multilateral Shanghai-based NDB started in
2015, began issuing loans for renewable energy development from 2016. Ahead of
the Xiamen summit, NDB approved loans worth of $1.4 billion for sustainable
development projects in China, Russia and India. While robust functioning of
NDB, silenced critics, China’s aggressive posturing and hijacking of agenda is
becoming too obvious to discount.
China’s attempts to
hijack BRICS Agenda
Aside prospects of gainful economic cooperation, wary of US
dominated unipolar world, India heavily rallied for BRICS. While China and
Russia pitched hard for BRICS to challenge the Western hegemony. Rapid economic
rise of China and slowing of Russian economy eventually changed the delicate
balance of BRICS. Soon, China began to dominate BRICS realm. Burgeoning Chinese
hegemony and its eventually heckling of BRICS agenda became more evident with
Beijing warning India days ahead of Xiamen summit against raising Pakistan’s
role in perpetrating terrorism. Beijing’s precondition countermanded objectives
of BRICS of enhancing cooperation amongst five nations in the fight against
terrorism. Undeterred by Chinese objections, during negotiations, Indian
officials insisted on naming and shaming Pakistan for orchestrating cross
border terrorism.
Eventually, unlike the Goa declaration, that failed to name
the Pakistani based terror outfits in the joint declaration, Indian
persistence, forced China to include terror groups patronized by Pakistan in
Xiamen declaration. The declaration not only condemned terror attacks on BRICS
countries but added that “We, in this
regard, express, concern on the security situation in the region and violence
caused by the Taliban, ISIL/ DAESH, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates including East
Turkestan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani
Network, Laskhar-e-Toiba, Jaish e Mohammed, TTP and Hizb ut Tarir”. The inclusion of Pakistani groups was
considered as diplomatic victory by some considering China belligerent stand
towards India till a week ahead of Xiamen summit. China’s shift in position is
a significant improvement from last year BRICS summit in Goa where Beijing
forthrightly snubbed India for calling Pakistan the “mothership” of terrorism.
Experts quickly pointed that China and Pakistan signed Heart of Asia’s Amritsar
declaration where Pakistani terror groups were named. Hence, it might be premature to rejoice over
China’s amenable stance and anticipate any change of position with respect to a
resolution demanding ban on Masood Azhar at UN. Above all, by including
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) along with JeM, China weakened BRICS nations resolution
to fight against terrorism and indirectly defended Pakistan’s narrative. The
declaration affirmed that “those
responsible for committing, organizing o supporting terrorist acts must be held
accountable” and called for expeditious finalization and adoption of
Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) by the UN. Despite
China’s loud proclamations, its position has always been duplicitous.
Though BRICS is an energetic alliance with significant
economic clout, China’s hegemonic aspirations are casting a dark shadow. Over
the past three decades, China has considerably expanded its economic and
military outreach. Buoyed by success in establishing AIIB (Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank), NDB, unveiling OBOR and Renminbi becoming third largest
currency, China is making incremental advances to challenge the World economic
order. Beijing has also initiated harmonization of financial institutions of
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Shanghai pact which envisaged a “Eurasian political, economic and military
organization”, was the forerunner of SCO, through which China fostered
cooperation with Central Asian countries and Russia. At Astana Summit, India
and Pakistan joined SCO as full members boosting China’s global heft. While
China and Russia joined hands to strengthen SCO to balance western hegemony,
China is now making every effort to dominate BRICS.
China’s BRICS-Plus Approach
To advance its global ambitions Beijing is intent on using
BRICS platform to expand its sphere of influence. In March, China floated
“BRICS plus” approach. Beijing even explored modalities of expanding the group.
Though China didn’t make any official announcement of expansion plans, the term
“BRICS plus” was mentioned in joint statement. Xi said “We
should promote the BRICS plus cooperation approach and build an open and
diversified network of development partnerships to get more emerging markets and
developing countries (EMDC) involved in our concerted efforts for cooperation
and mutual benefits”. China even invited five pro-China countries, critical
players for OBOR as guests for Xiamen Summit. These included- Mexico, Guinea,
Kenya, Egypt and Tajikistan (as representatives of EMDCs). Further Xi rebuked
Trump’s protectionist approach and seized this opportunity to project China as
epitome of “Open World Economy”. He
announced plans of investing 500 million yuan to start an economic and
technology cooperation program in BRICS countries, pledged $500 million
assistance for South-South Cooperation and made additional investment of $4
million in NDB. China made its intentions of expanding BRICS clear by extending
invitation to select countries. India must be wary of Chinese ambitions. India
swayed by ideological posturing regarded BRICS as an “extension of
non-alignment” and failed to gauge Chinese hypocrisy. Unlike earlier regimes,
sentimentalism or ideological moorings no longer drive India’s foreign policy.
India foreign policy is now making every effort to assess consequences of any
partnership on Indian interests.
Just as Xi held a dialogue with BIMSTEC group at the Goa
BRICS summit, Modi addressed EMDCs at Xiamen. He apprised them of India’s
tradition of collaborating with fellow developing countries for mutually
beneficial cooperation and common development. He called for coordinated action
and cooperation in areas such as counter terrorism, cyber security and disaster
management.
Xi-Modi Meet
Modi held bilateral talks with heads of states of Russia,
Brazil and South Africa. But post Doklam standoff, Modi-Xi bilateral drew
international attention. Disclosing the outcomes of an hour-long bilateral
between both leaders, Foreign Secretary Jaishankar summarized that “President Xi and Prime Minister Modi laid
out a positive view of where our ties could go and there were some detailed
discussions about the mechanisms, which could help both the countries go
forward in that direction with the help of inter-governmental groups like
strategic institutions, and that can be used to build that relationship. There
was a constructive sense of the relationship to keep the ties on an upward
trajectory.” Clearly, in an amazing
turn around, bellicose China seemed to have softened its stance. Incidentally
China reiterated its interest to reengage with India and stressed on the
Panchsheel directives of co-existence for “healthy,
stable bilateral relations”. While it might be tempting to state that
China’s conciliatory approach and positive tone, can infuse new trust into the
Indo-China bilateral relationship. China’s measured approach must be carefully
assessed. Currently, China’s global ambitions have taken a hit with OBOR slowly
turning into a formidable debt trap for countries that signed it. India’s firm
no to BRI has forced European nations to reconsider their interests in the
global connectivity project. Moreover, North Korea’s nuclear test, hours before
President Xi’s keynote address at Xiamen Summit, demolished the myth that China
can save the World from Pyongyang’s nuclear combativeness. In 2016, causing a
major embarrassment to China, DPRK tested three medium range ballistic missiles
on the inaugural day of G-20 Huangzhou summit. DPRK’s war rhetoric directed
against China goes on to show that all is not well between China and DPRK.
China’s deteriorating relations with neighbors on long term may not augur well
for its global ambitions. Perhaps, mending ties with India which is
advantageous for its trade could have been its best bet. While India expertly
brought back balance to its bilateral ties at Xiamen Summit, India must
exercise extreme caution in treading along the road of friendship to
Beijing.
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