India's Reconnect With Russia

India has been a close ally of erstwhile Soviet Union since 1960’s and had an exceptional camaraderie. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia became time-tested partner of India. For the past five decades, Russia was the top most military weapons and equipment supplier of India. Bilateral relations between these countries are rooted in and strengthened by defence trade.  Irrespective of the change of leadership, bilateral ties with Russia remained very strong. With signing of “Declaration on the India- Russia Strategic Partnership” in 2000, the bilateral cooperation soon extended to politics, trade and economy, security, culture, science and technology. By 2010, the strategic partnership is elevated to Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. The dialogue mechanism between India and Russian Federation is characterized by Annual Bilateral Summit Meetings which are held alternatively in India and Russia. Modi on his two-day upcoming visit to Russia will participate in the 16^th Annual Summit Meetings on Dec 23^rd. During the 15^th Annual Summit meet held in Delhi, on December 10^th 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin adopted a joint statement “Druzhba-Dosti”: A vision for strengthening Indian-Russian Partnership over the next decade.

Russia has been key pillar of India’s foreign policy. Besides, annual summit meeting at the highest level, two intergovernmental commissions- one on trade, economic, trade, scientific, technological and cultural cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) co-chaired by External Affairs Minister and the Russian Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and another on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) co- chaired by Defence Ministers of both countries meet annually. Foreign Ministers of both countries this year met along the sidelines of Russia-India-China (RIC) Foreign Ministers meet in Beijing this year. Months before Modi’s state visit to Russia, Foreign Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar participated in the meetings and prepared the ground for Modi’s annual summit meet. Traditional bilateral ties so far were confined to defence, nuclear and heavy industry. With top aerospace companies keen on investing in India for manufacturing components for the civil and military programs in India, a high-powered Indian business delegates will travel to attend Indo-Russia CEO meet to deliberate at the prospect of forming joint venture (JV) companies. To boost up trade and investments Modi will address the Russian investors at the Moscow Expo Centre on Dec 24^th. About 300 Indian companies are registered in Russia whose cumulative investments account for $8 billion while Russian investments in India is about $4 billion. Last year Essar Oil has signed agreement with Rosenft Oil Company of Russia for a period of 10 years.

Trade Ties

Indo-Russian trade volume as of 2014 is $9.51 billion of which India’s exports which include pharmaceuticals, iron& steel, manufactured products, apparels, tea, coffee and tobacco  account of $3.17 billion and imports which majorly include diamonds, fertilisers, nuclear and defence equipment is $6.34 billion. Despite the long standing bilateral ties, the volume of trade is abysmally low. During the 15^th Indo-Russian Annual Summit countries have set a target of $30 billion by 2025. Besides, military ties, India and Russia are contemplating on exploring trade ties beyond energy, IT, diamonds and pharmacy. A $3 billion fund to promote startups in nanotechnology, aerospace, defence and manufacturing sectors. India is also seeking Russian investment in National Infrastructure Fund and keen in capitalizing Russian interest in India’s Make in India (MII). In a $1 billion worth project, India’s Hindustan Aeronautical Limited and Anil Amban’s Reliance Defence as local partners will team up with Russia to manufacture 200 Kamov-226T helicopters to replace aging Cheetah and Chetak helicopters used for ferrying supplies to Siachen glacier. Turkey recently gunned down Russian fighter jet on the charges of air space violations and infuriated Russia in retaliation pulled plug on its bilateral trade relations with Ankara and is looking towards its traditional partners for investment destinations. Modi during his visit is keen on filling the vacuum created by those sectorial sanctions. Deputy PM of Russia, Dmitry Rogozin who was in India few days back to prepare for Modi’s trip indicated that Russia now wants India to be its major trade and economic partner. Some Indian strategists opine that despite India’s shift towards the west for defence equipment, Russia has an edge over the west in several areas. Further, Russia having invested in India over several decades, well-versed with Indian bureaucracy can be a valuable partner in MII.

Energy Cooperation

 Another key aspect of Modi’s trip will be expanding nuclear energy cooperation. Russia is seeking India’s cooperation in building nuclear power plants in other third world countries, in the area of joint extraction of Uranium, production of nuclear fuel and atomic waste elimination. Russia might announce plans of setting up of six Advanced Light Water Reactors of 1200 (Megawatt) each in Andhra Pradesh. Modi’s astute oil diplomacy helped India’s ONGC Videsh to acquire 15% stake in Russia’s Vankor Field when Modi attended BRICS Summit at Ufa in July, 2015. During his upcoming Summit meetings Modi will finalize second overseas oil assets acquisition worth $1 billion towards 29% of Rosenft’s stakes in Siberian Oil Project by Oil India.

Defence Ties

The long standing cooperation in the defence field gradually evolved from seller-buyer relationship to collaborative joint research, development and production of advanced defence technology and systems. BrahMos Missile system, joint development of fifth generation air crafts and multi transport aircraft are the illustrious outcomes of such cooperation. But of late several lucrative Indian defence deals were clinched by Russia toppling it from the status of the top most defence equipment supplier of India. In an effort to mollify Russia, India has finalized purchase of five units of S-400 Triumf Air Defence Missile Technology worth $10 billion, capable of destroying incoming aircrafts, drones and missiles within a range of 400km. Defence Acquisition System (DAC) has also cleared decks for purchase of six regiments of Pinaka rocket system under MII, 571 light bullet proof vehicles for counter-insurgency operations, 120 trawls, 24 Pechora Air defense systems and an electronic warfare system deployed in mountainous areas for Indian Army. Last year India leased a sub-marine Admiral Gorshkov which is commissioned into Indian Navy as INS Vikramaditya. Defence cooperation has been a key aspect of Indo-Russian relations and both countries annually hold joint military exercises.

Other major aspects on the agenda include expediting the progress of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), up gradation of Chabahar port, finalization of India’s proposed membership to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), expanding cooperation in outer space research projects and maximizing opportunities in SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). This year marks 40^th anniversary of launch of India’s first satellite Aryabhatta on Russian launch vehicle Soyuz. According to some media reports, Modi may travel to Astrakhan, gateway to Caspian Sea from Moscow. During his stint as a Chief Minister of Gujarat, a MoU was signed between Gujarat state and Astrakhan region establishing cooperation in five areas- hydrocarbon research, ship-building, ship-breaking, revival of trade routes (between Okha port of Gujarat and Olya Port in Astrakhan region) and promotion of tourism. Sister-city relations are in vogue between Ahmedabad and Astrakhan City. Indian House in Astrakhan houses a library that has extensive reports of Gujarat traders traveling to this region rich in natural resources and establishing strong trading ties. Old chronicles indicated that Indian traders had even married local women and lived there. India and Russia are now exploring the possibility of creating broad counter terrorism coalition.

Over the past few years India’s marked economic surge, levitation towards the US and geopolitical prominence culminated in decline of Russia’s share in India’s defence trade. Meanwhile, following annexation of Crimea by Russia, Ukraine plunged into crisis and the west imposed economic sanctions on Moscow. In a double whammy for Russian economy, plummeting global oil prices to as low as less than $40 a barrel coupled by economic sanctions aggravated its financial crisis. With India’s defence acquisitions from Russia witnessing a steep fall, aggrieved Russia paid mere lip service to India’s candidature for UNSC and chose to join China and Pakistan in undermining the G-4 initiative at the UN General Assembly. Distressed by the prospect of recession and increased western alienation Russia is pushed into China’s embrace. Joint military exercises with China in the Mediterranean region testimonies changing geopolitical equations of Asia. Despite the violation of the copyrights and reverse engineering of Russian defence equipment supplied to China and reneging on the prodigious $400 billion oil and natural gas contract for a period of 30 years, Russia is sticking to China. In 2012, China acquired Russian Su-27 flanker jets and reverse engineered them into J-11B aircraft.  In partnership with China, Russia is now entering into crucial Afghanistan- Pakistan regions and Central Asia. Intriguingly, Russian strategists are now increasing viewing Pakistan as South Asian gate keeper and following visits by General Kayani in 2012, there is a conceivable Russian policy shift towards Islamabad. This was followed by an agreement wherein Russia supplied RD 93 engines for JF 17 fighters assembled in Pakistan in collaboration with China. Recently, General Raheel Sharif on his visit to Russia signed an agreement for sale of advanced Sukhoi 35 fighters and MI 35 attack helicopters. Ironically Russia in its joint statement with India in 2003 condemned Pakistan for patronizing terror outfits on its territory is now alarmingly quiet and soft towards Islamabad. In fact it later emerged that having lost the lucrative Indian helicopter deals and combat aircrafts to the US and France respectively, Russia out of desperation have reached out to Pakistan.

With India pandering to the US by signing 123 agreement, Russia is now flirting with Pakistan and China to enliven its grand stratagem of creating a Eurasian Union. Ever since Russia’s aggressive air strikes against the ISIS on September 30^th, 2015 geopolitics experienced a major shift.  Economic sanctions, plunging oil prices, Syrian attacks have seriously crippled Russian economy, compelling it to seek refuge in China. But Russia is a junior partner with China and is wary of its historical disappointments with Beijing wherein Mao had out rightly dumped Russia to embrace US.  Russia’s overtures with Pakistan is borne largely out of its “compulsive” need to sell military weapons. India is currently the fastest growing economy and intensifying strategic ties, bilateral trade and economic partnership will in best interest of both countries.

Through his phenomenal diplomatic outreach, Modi established strong connect with Barack Obama, Shinzo Abe, Angela Merkel, David Cameron and Francois Hollande but such a chemistry is not witnessed with Putin. India’s growing ties with the US had offended Russia. But as an emerging economy, it is incumbent on India to expand strategic ties with west and Japan for larger geopolitical advantage, to contain the assertiveness of China and to attract investments and technology. Contemporaneously, India has to infuse more confidence in bilateral ties with Russia, with which it has special and highly privileged partnership. Indeed, Russia needs to understand that India is now no longer a balancing power but a leading nation in South Asia.

 

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India’s Strategic Partnership with Japan

While the Indian mainstream media has been striving tirelessly to espouse the irony of vendetta politics that stalled business in parliament, the world media is abuzz with the robust diplomatic engagement between India and Japan. The Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe was in India on his third diplomatic visit to India to attend the ninth Indo-Japan Summit Talks. The three day long visit is highly watched not only for the diplomatic engagement between Asia’s large economies but also for the unusual personal chemistry between the leaders. Both Modi and Abe touted as ardent nationalists, share similar strategic and economic ambitions aims to consolidate regional leadership. India and Japan are historically connected and have been inheritors of Buddhism. Post World War II, war ravaged Japan surrendered to the Allied Forces, restricted its future of course by the directives etched in its pacifist constitution.  India on the other hand, in 1960’s rigorously advocated, followed the doctrine of non-alignment and was averse to ally with any country. By 1970’s Japan emerged as an economic giant while India stumbled in developmental race. Despite its Look East Policy it failed to catch up with its East Asian peers. Post- Cold war the geopolitical equations drastically changed. By late 1990’s China with its enviable growth toppled the Asian leader Japan and evolved as an assertive and unassailable economy. Burdened by burgeoning ageing population, Japan soon slipped into recession and growth rates slid. Soon the destiny of Asia was controlled by the US and China. India and Japan became insignificant.

India and Japan for long shied away from alliances are now finding lost ground under the leadership of Modi and Abe who are keen on expanding security cooperation. In lieu of growing military provocations of China, began Abe incorporating amendments in its pacifist constitution since 2011. Simultaneously, launched Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure with $110 billion investment aimed to promote quality infrastructure across Asia, an alternative to China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road) project of China. To enhance the strategic dimension of Japan’s proactive financial assistance, Japan has been competing with China. Recently it even clenched contract for development of a port in Bangladesh. Of late smaller countries like Sri Lanka have apprehensions about Chinese investments as the hidden interest rates are extremely high.  Japan by offering low interest rates is jumping into the business of infrastructure development. While Japan may not out compete China in infrastructure deals but the long term experience and quality of Japan’s projects might soon find more takers. Abe is now aggressively pitching for exports and a sustainable infrastructure development to rejuvenate its economy.

As Modi aims to position India as a lead country as opposed to a marginal/ balancing player, it critically falls short of the resources and capability. Moreover India is contained by China which has strategically positioned itself in our immediate neighborhood by way of rapidly transforming the infrastructure topology of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. India in order to improve connectivity within the country and beyond must forge partnership with Tokyo. Japan’s new infrastructure promotion agenda unlike its earlier developmental aid is strategically oriented and New Delhi is now all set to seize this opportunity. In short, the unprecedented rise of China indeed propelled India and Japan to enter into a realm of strong strategic collaboration.

The Indo-Japan Summit talks have three common strategic interests- investment in India’s infrastructure and financial development, civil nuclear cooperation and defence ties. Amidst speculations of the extent of cooperation in all three major areas of strategic interests and their fructification, overwhelming support offered by Japan is a real booster for the fledging Indian economy. Japan has played a key role in the economic resurgence of several South East Countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Despite the traditional rivalry with China, Japan accounts for 11% of total investments in Shanghai. Propitiously, ahead of his visit, Abe emphasized that “strong India is in best interest of Japan, and strong Japan is in best interest of India”. The unfolding of the partnership between India and Japan is better complemented by their lacunae whereby deep pockets of Japan can fuel infrastructure development projects in India. On the other hand, the rapidly aging population of Japan is antithetical to the huge demographic dividend of India. Thus coming together of these countries is win-win situation for both.

Infrastructure and Economic Development

The most important outcome of Abe’s visit has been finalization of the high speed-bullet train built on the Shinkansen Model between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, of length 505km at the cost of Rs 98,000 crores ( $12 billlion). The will drastically cut the travel time from 7hrs to 2hrs. As per the terms of agreement, India has to repay the loan amount over a period of 50 years at an interest rate of 0.1% with a 10 year grace period. This deal comes to India at a time when Japan has lost out to a contract to China worth $5 billion in Indonesia. Besides transferring the relevant technology, Japan indicated that all the equipment, machinery and components will be manufactured in India. Japan has outcompeted China in investment pledges to India. While the volume of Indo-Japanese trade is about 5% of its trade with China, Japan is funneling $29 billion to India as infrastructure loans (includes high speed train), finance and public investments in India. Japan has promised to provide $3.31 billion as developmental assistance to support infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh, the vantage point for Chinese incursions, and another $1.65 billion the following year.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation

In a surprising development India and Japan reached a major breakthrough on civil nuclear cooperation. Japan, the lone Asian country which suffered the cataclysm of atomic bombs during the World War II is highly vocal about its reservations towards nuclear use. In a significant move, Japan agreed to make concessions for sealing nuclear energy cooperation with India owing to its international credence as peaceful. Japan promised to reconsider its stance and sought India’s clarification on its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear tests. India will be the only non-signatory of NPT treaty towards which Japan has softened its stand. The technical details will be finalized after Japan Parliament endorses the pact. Civil nuclear pact will open up new vistas for India’s aspirations of green energy. Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) too issued a waiver to India to carry on nuclear commerce following assurance of Pranab Mukherjee of “voluntary, unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing” in 2008 before the NSG. This move will facilitate the entry of Japanese nuclear industry hard hit by the Fukushima disaster into lucrative Indian markets.

With India announcing cuts of fossil fuel emissions and slowly enhancing its renewable energy sources to 40%, nuclear energy is viable option. India’s goal of clean energy will receive a lease for life through civil nuclear cooperation.

Defence Ties

India and Japan signed an agreement on reciprocal protection of military information transmitted to each other. With Japan easing its military weapons purchase regime, US-2 amphibious aircraft made by ShinMaywa Industries was anticipated. But the sale wasn’t finalized and instead an agreement was reached that provides framework to increase defence and security cooperation. The Joint Statement titled “India and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region” both leaders have exalted the trust the parties have reposed in each other. The oft used term of Asia- pacific was replaced by Indo-Pacific in the statement invigorating the defence ties between the countries and highlighting the concept of “Confluence of the two seas” (The Indian Ocean and The Pacific Ocean) promoted by Abe. The document reflected the aspirations, strategic vision and bi-lateral synergy of both countries. They pledged to work for the peace and security in the region and hinted at the possibility of a grand maritime cooperation. The Joint Statement also indicated Japan’s participation in the Indo-US joint naval exercises Malabar, marking the emergence of a formidable trilateral in the Indo-Pacific region. This alliance obviously glued by the US has added significant heft to the Asia’s Pivot doctrine of the US. In fact, this might soon be a quadrilateral with Australia keen on being part of the naval exercises.

Moreover with India shedding its traditional ambiguity and endorsing the freedom of navigation (FON), over flight and unimpeded navigation through the contested South China Sea (SCS), India endorsed the Japan’s stand on SCS. China can now hardly ignore the strategic engagement between India and Japan. Both countries reiterated the need for effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration of the Conduct of the Parties in the SCS and early conclusion of the negotiations to establish code of conduct in SCS. China took a strong dig at this statement and alleged that the diplomatic engagement between India and Japan is an attempt to contain China. Further they condemned terrorism in all forms and vouched for Zero Tolerance towards terror groups and called for effective implementation of the UNSC resolution 1267 and other resolution that can eliminate safe havens of terror, disrupt terror networks, financing channels and their cross-border movements. They affirmed the importance of bringing the perpetrators of Mumbai blasts to justice.

Besides, being high on tangible outcomes, the Indo-Japan ties have reached a new high on the soft diplomacy frontiers as well. In tune with the eclectic welcome extended to Prime Minister on his bilateral visit to Japan in 2014 at Kyoto, Varanasi has thrown away a celebratory reception to Abe. Bedecked with flowers, resplendent with bright colors, invoking the spiritual omniscience of Lord Vishwanath, both Prime Ministers attended the traditional Ganga Aarti. The mystic hues of the Dashashwamedh Ghat amidst the ritualistic chanting of the scared Sanskrit hymns exemplified the ancient traditional glory and culture of the land. The unique camaraderie of Modi and Abe was in grand display at the banks of Ganga who spend 40 minutes in rapt attention. Earlier in 2014 Modi has signed Partner City agreement between Varanasi and Kyoto and a MoU The Japan International Cooperation Agency extended support in cleaning Ganga under the Ganga Action plan to make it pollution free.

In all 16 deals were signed between countries to deepen economic, strategic and defence cooperation and evocatively strengthen the Make In India, Skills India and Digital India Initiatives. Modi announced visa-on-arrival to Japanese citizens from March 1^st 2016. Japan has committed $34 billion investment in India during Modi’s visit in 2014 which are now slowly pouring in. Strategists are now drawing similarities to China’s $46 billion investment in the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) to Japan’s impeccable infrastructure development projects. US and Japan despite the conflict of interests in the SCS and East China Sea have never undermined their economic engagement with China. While China and US spar over FON, they have reached milestone agreements over issues of climate and cyber security too. In fact for the first time in November 2015, PLA hosted first Army to Army dialogue with the US and charted out confidence building measures. India supported China’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and an important partner of New Development Bank (NBD) of BRICS. China has accepted the membership of India into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). If India is truly committed in overhauling its economy, it has to unequivocally develop close ties with the top three economies of the World.

Abe’s visit witnessed the significant transformation of India from a peripheral country to a lead player exuding the commitment in defending its ties and ability to forge partnerships with friendly nations.  Since 2000 India leadership consistently invested in building ties with Japan and Modi gave the needed thrust transforming the relations and intensifying bilateral cooperation. Eventually a strong Indo-Japan alliance can checkmate Chinese hegemony and stabilize the lopsided Asia’s balance of power. @ Copyrights reserved.

 

 

Reengaging with Pakistan: Concerted Efforts of Modi government

The silent meeting between the NSA’s of India and Pakistan on December 6^th accompanied by their foreign secretaries away from the pandemonium of media signaled emergence of India’s renewed foreign policy strategy. Meeting of NSA’s at a neutral move away from the high-decibel media has raised several eyebrows. This diplomatic move, an outcome of a handshake and brief meeting that lasted for 160 seconds between the Prime Ministers of both countries along the sidelines of Paris Climate Summit. Though no ground breaking outcomes were expected from a dialogue between the NSAs, a prolonged lull in the diplomatic engagement with Pakistan is also not recommended either. But a willingness to interact signified India’s interest to engage with Pakistan. Modi’s diplomatic astuteness, absence of coherent and cogent policy towards Pakistan has been under scanner for a while. In the past 18 months, NSA talks were postponed twice-once in August 2014 when Pakistan insisted on having Hurriyat as the third party and a year later when Pakistan persisted on a discussion about J&K while India was intent on sticking to mutually agreed agenda at Ufa.  

In line with India’s reconciliation, Sushma Swaraj has travelled to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia- Istanbul process (HOP-IP), a conference aimed at collectively addressing the prospect of regional cooperation to stabilize war-torn Afghanistan. Heart of Asia was launched in 2011 and includes member countries- Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and the UAE. It is supported by 16 other countries which include the US, UK, Japan, France, Egypt and Germany and 12 regional and international organizations like the UN, SAARC, SCO, NATO and OIC. The HOP-IP conference was held in Istanbul, Turkey in 2011 and the process gets the name from it. Consecutive editions were held at Kabul in 2012, Alamty in 2013 and at Beijing in 2014. The fifth edition of the Heart of Asia co-chaired by Pakistan’s Sartaz Aziz and Afghanistan foreign affairs minister Salahauddin Rabbani announced a joint Islamabad Declaration at the conference. The declaration affirmed that parties will respect each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, political independence and follow principles of non-intervention in the internal affairs. In her address at the conference attended by ministers and high-level delegates from 16 countries Swaraj reiterated India’s interest in dealing with the burgeoning menace of terrorism that is steadily penetrating into South Asia and stressed the need for “unclogging the arteries”. In a veiled reference she took a dig at the interventionist role of Pakistan- in stopping transit of goods from India to Afghanistan through its territory and for blocking consensus on the SAARC Motor Vehicle agreement at Khatmandu. She hinted that effective transit arrangements can directly benefit the Heart of Asia, Afghanistan and formally indicated India’s readiness for a join Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement. India will be holding the Heart of Asia conference at New Delhi in 2016.

In Islamabad, Swaraj had a formal hour-long discussions on Indo-Pak affairs with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and met Sartaz Aziz, advisor to Pakistan government on national security and foreign policy. On 9^th December, the concluding day of Conference, Swaraj at the joint press conference announced restart of newly christened “Comprehensive bilateral dialogue”. The joint statement which condemned terrorism resolved to cooperate on eliminating the same and witnessed assurances by Pakistan to complete Mumbai trials at the earliest. The Comprehensive Dialogue will include issues of peace and security, confidence building measures (CBMs), J&K, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tullbull Navigation project, economic and commercial cooperation, counter-terrorism, narcotics control, religious tourism, people-to-people exchange and humanitarian issues. In continuum the first composite dialogue between the foreign secretaries is scheduled to be held in January, 2016. With Prime Minister Modi set to visit Islamabad for SAARC conference in 2016, resumption of talks rejuvenated new hopes of a palpable peace process between the countries.

It is relevant to contemplate what has really changed between the September 2015 and now resulting in a sudden turn of events.  Firstly, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was cornered by the opposition in August 2014 who literally brought the national administration to knees on charges of alleged irregularities in elections. Army has come to Sharif’s rescue on the condition that Sharif would part away with his control over Pakistan’s foreign policy. Prime Minister Sharif struck a deal with the Army wherein Army will have supreme command over foreign policy and Sharif would look after the civil administration, economic and financial aspects of Pakistan. Henceforth Rawalpindi has become official headquarters for foreign policy related transactions and engagements. Consequently any engagement with Islamabad was literally null and void until it obtained green signal from General Raheel Sharif of military. Nawaz Sharif is mere nominal head. Congruently post August 2014 there has been a perceptible change in Pakistan, whereby military crushed Pakistani Talibans and the rebellion in North Waziristan with an iron hand. Several military courts were also set up and those convicted were mercilessly executed leading to record low civilian casualties. These audacious efforts of General Sharif earned him great respect among civilians. Further he scuttled terror strikes including the one by Pakistani Taliban on the army camp located on the outskirts of Karachi in September 2015. Steadily military has become invincible. General Sharif handpicked Lt Gen Naseer Khan Jangua, his close confidante who recently retired from his last assignment in Balochistan and appointed him as National Security Advisor (NSA). It is no secret that Pakistan civilian government was always guided by military. Previously Prime Ministers chose their close confidantes for the post of NSA, currently military establishment directly appointed its former official for the post. Bilateral dialogue earlier involved talks with powerless, civilian regime but during the current round of talks India spoke directly with military. The NSA talks at Bangkok opened up new vistas where our top-notch operations man, Ajit Doval spoke to his counterpart with relative ease, as both were well-versed with ground realities.

Secondly, Post Paris terror strikes, there has been renewed focus on burgeoning threat of terrorism across the globe. Pakistan, known to be terror haven of South Asia is on radar now. International community is fervently hoping for a strategic engagement between the two nuclear countries. Pakistan is under a pressure to ascertain its commitment towards regional peace. This in part, is reason for its proactive commitment for peace talks between Talibans and Afghan government even. Modi government had initially aggressively engaged with Pakistan but was forced to adopt a hard stance following a spurt in ceasefire violations across LoC and on Pakistan’s insistence of having Hurriyat as the third party at the table. Hence talks were suspended and no progress could be made. Modi’s greatest push to foreign policy was forlorn, if it failed to evolve an effective dialogue mechanism with Pakistan.  Moreover, Washington and Beijing has been keenly supporting peace process between the two countries. Third, it is learnt that Nawaz Sharif has promised to expedite the trial of Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and other suspects involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Modi who is keen on engaging with Pakistan in fact made the first moves and Pakistan responded reciprocally culminating in a meeting between NSAs at Bangkok.

Away from media glare, Modi before his unscheduled handshake with Sharif sent his right hand man Ajit Doval to speak with Indian High Commissioner Abdul Basit, setting ground for peace talks. The joint statement of NSAs issued following the four and half hours talks “covered peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir and other issues, including tranquility across LoC”. The agenda of NSA was received positively by both countries with terrorism batted by India and Jammu and Kashmir, a core issue emphasized by Pakistan were addressed. Disagreement over these contentious issues stalled the peace process till now. Moreover it is pursuant to India’s choice of not having any third party on the table.

In the last 18 months, Modi has emphatically projected India as a lead player in the South Asia and countries like UK, Germany and France have started to view India as a counter-balance to growing heft of China. US is inclined for a reconciliation between India and Pakistan as it is concerned about its interests in Afghanistan and steadily declining security. Significantly in a move to operationalize its strategic partnership agreement of 2011 with Afghanistan, India is now set to deliver four Mi-25 attack helicopters by January 2016. This is a marked departure from India’s previous policy of refusal to deliver lethal weaponry. India has now offered to supply military transport vehicles and agreed to train 1000 Afghan security personnel in India every year. Enamored by Pakistan’s assurances of facilitating peace talks with Talibans, Afghan President Abdul Ghani has initially veered towards Pakistan at the cost of antagonizing India. But unabated terror attacks from across the Pakistan territory angered the Afghan disposition which reached out to India seeking an upgrade in defence ties. Stiffened stance of Modi towards terrorism and his all-out campaign for global action against terrorism would be of little value if India fails to resolve the issue with its immediate neighbor.

By holding talks at a neutral venue away from high-decibel media Indo-Pak talks critically evoked less tyrannical voices. Reliable sources have indicated that NSA talks have ended on a positive note and paved way for Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad. Indian foreign minister last visited Pakistan in 2012.

Composite dialogue between India and Pakistan was first started in 1997 by Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and his counterpart Nawaz Sharif who laid a frame-work for discussions on issues of mutual concern. Following the nuclear tests, the talks were stalled in 1998 and resumed again after the Lahore Declaration in 1998 when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee travelled to Lahore on bus. In 1999 sabotaging the peace process, Pakistan stealthily infiltrated militants in civilian disguise leading to Kargil war. The dialogue process was again disrupted and resumed again at the fag-end of NDA regime in January 2004. The talks continued till November 2008 and abruptly ended again, due to the dastardly Mumbai attacks. Man Mohan Singh under UPA initiated the talks under a new name- Resumed Dialogue in 2011 and again these were stalled in 2012 following beheading of an Indian Soldier along the LoC. Thus far, Indo-Pak dialogue hasn’t been consistent and followed a regular pattern of start and stop. An unpredictabe pattern of belligerence displayed by Pakistan has been the reason behind stalling of peace process. Pakistan’s foreign policy towards India has been capricious and hence Indian strategists warn government to be “cautiously optimistic”. Indeed few analysts lamented the strategic U-turn of Modi government as unabated unprovoked firings and infiltrations continue to loom over the LoC. Indeed Indo-Pak observers are right in their own way in condemning the new stance of the government, since Pakistan as of now hasn’t promised to abide by cease violations, controlled the infiltration bids or prevailed on the perpetrators of the 26/11. In short, with a colossal history of betrayal looming large, sustenance of a peace process with Pakistan is still a million dollar question. Despite the troubled past and the intransigent military machinery guiding Pakistan India must move on by diplomatically engaging Pakistan. While the World has isolated Pakistan, because of its strategic geographic location and its imminent influence on the regional peace and security India should take refuge in peace process. Simultaneously, it be equipped with arsenal other than diplomacy to face the challenges posed by Pakistan.

 

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Is Parliament Personal Fiefdom of Congress ?

The winter session of the Parliament began by paying rich tributes to the Indian Constitution and its makers and celebrated the iconic, Constitution Day on November 26^{th ,} to mark the 125^th birth anniversary of Dr. B. R. Ambedkar. The occasion was marked by invigorating speeches delivered by the leaders of ruling party and opposition who reposed great faith in the preamble, reiterated the founding principles of constitution and promised to abide by them. The government stung by the remarks of being cavalier reached out to the opposition but was imperiled by its non-committal attitude. Slammed by political critics for their inability to reach consensus with opposition, ruling party gave enough ground and were optimistic of a discussion on the crucial GST bill that can invariably give a major fillip to the reforms process announced by NDA government. Government committed for a conducive functioning of the Parliament has unleashed a whip on the loose cannons in the party to make the winter session more productive. Seemingly, they truly meant business and anticipated to break the logjam in the Parliament.

So far the winter session witnessed grand standings on constitutional values followed by intense debates on intolerance. Besides both houses discussed the flood situation in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, situation in Nepal and price rise. Government has lined up four bills for consideration in Lok Sabha and seven for Rajya Sabha which include the GST bill and Real Estate Bill. So far in this session, two bills were passed in Lok Sabha- the Carriage by Air (Amendment) Bill 2015 and The Bureau of Indian Standards Bill 2015. The Arbitration and Conciliation Bill 2015 was introduced in Lok Sabha and discussions on Prevention of Corruption (Amendment) Bill 2015 just began in Rajya Sabha. But with the issue of summons by Delhi Court to Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi pertaining to the National Herald case, in a worst display of intolerance, Congress stalled the proceedings of both houses of Parliament. The court refused to relent to pleas of the Gandhis’ and issued summons to both of them and five others (Motilal Vohra, Sam Pitroda, Suman Dubey, Oscar Fernandes and YIL) to appear before court on December 19^th. Immediately the Congress raised a banner of tirade branding the dictum of the Delhi High Court as Vendetta by government. Subsequently, Congress upped the ante against the government with their lawyers holding press conference and the Parliamentarians reducing both houses of Parliament to ransom. Both the houses had to be adjourned with MP’s entering the well and raising slogans brandishing the ruling party.

National Herald, the mouth piece of Congress was established in 1938 by a group of Indian nationalist leaders besides Jawaharlal Nehru in Lucknow. It started off by publishing three newspapers- Navjeevan in Hindi, Quami Awaz in Urdu and National Herald in English. Nehru worked as initial editor and was Chairman of Herald’s board of directors. In fact all the investors and the shareholders of the establishment are sympathizers of Congress and for long it served to eloquently voice out the choicest path desired for the nation. Over a period of time, the paper degenerated financially due to various reasons. Delhi edition came into existence in 1968, from a building in Bahudur Shah Jafar Road. Lucknow office was closed in 1998. All the flung assets of National Herald (Associated Journal Limited) including its offices at Patna, Mumbai and Panchakula are now valued at Rs 2000 crores and by 2008 it accured an outstanding debt of 90 crores. The All India Congress Committee (AICC) extended a loan of 90.25 crores from the tax exempted funds (meant for political purpose) to AJL to restart the newspaper. Meanwhile, Young India Private Limited (YIL) started under section 25 company act 1956 (currently section 8 of company act 2013) with a provision of exemption from paying income tax on par with other Charitable trusts by paying Rs 50 Lakhs acquired AJL which owe money to AICC. YIL is majorly controlled by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi with each having 38% of shares. Now the plush buildings of the National Herald obtained at concessional rates from the government for setting the newspapers have turned into real estate assets earning Rs 60 lakhs of rent a month.

BJP leader Subramanian Swamy filed a private complaint against Gandhis’ for alleged breach of trust and cheating in acquisition of AJL in a trial court in 2013 (during the UPA-II regime). In June 2014, court has summoned Gandhis’ to appear before the court. By August 2014, however the Congress leaders obtained a stay till all parties are heard. The high court in its latest judgment noted that “the probity of the legendary political party” is at “stake” and prima facie case “evidenced criminality”.  It is worth noting that companies registered under the section 25 are ordained to promote commerce, art, science, education, research, social welfare, religion, charity, protection of environment etc. But interestingly YIL doesn’t conform to any of the aspects mentioned above. Had the Central government really conspired to implicate the opposition leaders, it has the authority to revoke licence of any company that contravenes the section 8. With cessation of publication of newspaper, actually the exemptions guaranteed under this section can no longer be availed. Also if the central government had wished to implicate the opposition leaders, it could have deferred the case to a later date and couldn’t have risked its reputation when the final discussions for the GST bill are underway. The ruling party have cleared decks for the two of the revised formulations suggested by the Congress party for the GST bill, by constituting committee headed by Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian. It backed the key demand of Congress dropped 1% tax on inter-state sales over and above the GST rate and proposed a neutral rate of 15-15.5%. But didn’t favor inclusion of the GST rate into constitutional amendment. Moreover, Prime Minister Modi wouldn’t have even extended an invitation to Sonia Gandhi and Man Mohan Singh for deliberations on GST bill.

What infact demands serious contemplation are series of contradictions that clearly indicate that Congress is hell-bent on playing a victim card. Stirring statements of Gandhis’ reminisced those of Late Indira Gandhi who came back to power in 1980 on the behest of being victimized by the Janata Party. The ballistic rhetoric of Sonia Gandhi, “Why should I be scared of anyone? I am daughter-in-law of Indira Gandhi” truly expounded the political theatrics played by the President of the Congress party. Similarly Rahul Gandhi’s egregious statement of government playing vendetta politics does in fact conform to the prevalent paradigm of the dynasty being above law. The outlandish comments by the top leaders and the congruent vociferous protests of their members in Parliament revealed their brutal disregard for an independent judiciary and the recourse of the democratic process.

Interestingly, the Congress speaks in a double voices. On one hand, while seemingly mellowed down by Court order its leaders promised to abide by legal process, on the other hand it is horrendously whipping the ruling party for harboring a political vendetta and stalling the proceedings of the Parliament. Democracy has four basic pillars- Legislature, Executive, Judiciary and Press. While it has obfuscated one of the pillars with its financial largesse. The vendetta claims surely endorses that it is beyond any legal scrutiny and aims to debilitate the judiciary. By hypothetically linking the PMO to court order, Congress party seem to suggest how they wield political control over the judiciary.

Challenging the prudence of court order at every possible platform is tantamount to contempt of court. After ruling the country for over five decades, the intolerance exhibited by the congress leaders towards judiciary truly smacks of self-aggrandizement. The vindictive stance adopted by Gandhis’ reminded the arrogant posturing of Indira Gandhi’s in 70’s when she roared “Indira is India”. The excesses and legacy of Congress is not sacrosanct anymore. The electoral drubbing to the lowest ever tally of 44 in Lok Sabha, denied them the post of Leader of Opposition. But this abysmal public disdain failed to bring even an iota of change in its hierarchical standing and functioning. Undoubtedly, Congress has resorted to disruptive politics of stalling Parliamentary proceedings. Its unrelenting attitude of holding protests before the Parliament on frivolous charges despite the open debates in both houses of Parliament failed to persuade them. Subsequently they stalled the functioning of Parliament in Monsoon session throttling various developmental activities (GST included). Almost half of the winter session has passed without any major transactions in Parliament. Needless to say, the slug fest flagged off by Congress alleging politics of revenge held a high pedestal to its political Godfathers undermining the welfare of people at large. With Opposition showing no signs of forsaking their political interests’ discussions on GST are highly unlikely. Ironically the party that claims to have moral high ground is remorselessly stifling the very fabric of the nation-Democracy.

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China’s overseas military base at Djibouti: A Prelude to String of Bases

China reached yet another milestone by establishing its first ever military base, a logistics facility to service military vessels in the horn of the Africa, Djibouti. In a major effort to assert its growing international stature China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, who championed to strengthen and expand its military reach across the globe acquired the military base in Djibouti 4000 miles away from its land. By virtue of its strategic geographic location, Djibouti with a population of 900,000 is also home to the lone US military base in Africa. For several decades, China proclaimed that establishing overseas military base is akin to seeking hegemony and interference in internal affairs of other countries. Beijing maintained that it will refrain from such activities. But last week, China signed 10 years lease agreement to set up naval base Djibouti enabling it to gain access to Persian Gulf.

China’s interests in Africa are augured by its aspirations of gaining a vantage position in the Indian Ocean region. As a part of this strategy, China spent millions of dollars in development of infrastructure in Djibouti and even laid a rail road that connects it to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, a land locked country with numerous Chinese investment projects. China is the largest trading partner of Africa with trade volume surpassing $200 billion (thrice US-Africa trade).

Ever since occupying the high seat of power in November 2012, President Xi had ambitiously envisaged to revamp its 2.3 million strong military force. In a bid to overhaul the military and introduce reforms, he first launched an intense campaign against corruption and subsequently enhanced military budget which according to Congressional research service study is about $ 145 billion. All the while China has been highly critical of America’s approach of establishing overseas military bases. But now it is busy defending its own position under the pretext of safeguarding its navigational freedom and aiding in crucial antipiracy operations. Though China frequently bespeaks of its peaceful rise and lack of expansionist attitude its unquenchable thirst of building overseas military installations reminds of typical US style of naval suffusion.

US in the meanwhile is concerned as the new base is quite close to its Camp Lemonnier base home to 4000 armed personnel  that carries out counter terrorism operations. US has recently extended its lease for 20 years with Djibouti. France too has a base in Djibouti and Japan which participates in UN antipiracy operations also stations its surveillance aircrafts and personnel there. Djibouti also hosts Pakistan and Italian military troops.

Djibouti the former French colony near Gulf of Aden has become hot-bed for overseas military installations firstly for its stable regime in the relatively volatile African East Coast and for its geographical location. It lies on the Bab el-Mandeb Straits, a gateway to Red Sea and Suez Canal, one of the busiest shipping routes. It is less than 20 miles away from the war ravaged Yemen and acts as an ideal base for international operations. China sealed an agreement to pay $100 million as annual rent for using Djibouti base, where 700 troops were stationed to protect its oil interests in South Sudan (1).

China steadily entered the Indian Ocean region under the guise of helping in anti-piracy operations is now expanding its foothold in the Indian Ocean region. While the Somalian piracy trouble has long disappeared, China continues to extend its presence by wooing the Indian Ocean Littoral countries. Its generous infrastructure bounties and soft credit lines to Maldives, Sri Lanka are also part of this larger strategy. In fact China established its presence in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean by undertaking major development projects of Gwadar Port in Pakistan and Hambantota port of Sri Lanka. The large part of the schematic presence of China in western Indian Ocean will focus on military operations other than the war (MOOTW). Presence in Djibouti will enable China to respond to contingencies of the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf region. China intends to develop a string of naval bases in the Indian Ocean region to protect its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) and eventually expand its naval presence too. Now that US dependence of oil imports from the Arabian region has reduced, it questions US presence in the Gulf and aspires to replace its position. By and large China seems to have officially unveiled its “string of naval bases” pursuit with Djibouti logistics facility (Chinese preferred name for a base).

New Delhi can hardly afford to ignore the lurking presence and explicit augmentation of Chinese maritime capabilities in its realm of influence. But India’s depleting naval assets and inadequate replenishment of maritime resources should be a cause for major concern. Moreover, India shouldn’t go by Chinese theatrics of “no military ambition in Djibouti”, for it has mastered the art of subterfuge. Djibouti is clearly a new beginning, a preview to the larger panorama of China’s geopolitical ambitions.

 

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Extreme Weather Events in India

The unprecedented increase in the extreme weather events is India is alarming. Chennai deluge is truly a rude wake-up call for the complacent Indian bureaucratic machinery. The local government is caught grappling under the burden of the unscrupulous urban planning, awful preparedness to meet the impending disaster. The situation is further worsened by the fury of the nature in the form on the record high rainfall. The trickling collated rainfall data received by the state of Tamilnadu and Chennai in particular is hair-rising.

Chennai deluge has brought to fore glaring deficiencies and lapses in enforcing recommended practices of urban management. The city received three times excess rainfall of 1218.6mm in the month of November than the normal limits and the corporation has miserably failed in gearing up to the storm warning. On December 1^st alone Chennai recorded 374mm rainfall exacerbating the flooding. Flooding of Chennai occurred in two phases. The deluge began on November 8^th when the low-lying areas like IT corridor of Velachery, Pallikarani and Old Mahabalipuram Road (OBR) on the periphery of city were flooded. But as torrential rains lashed the city, it was completely marooned. Highlighting the grievous state of urban planning, creaking public infrastructure. The city bore the brunt of the inept urban governance. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forewarned that strong El Nino and coincidence of various other factors might cause excess rainfall. Chennai is one the fastest growing industrial hubs in the South India, but unplanned and improper development of the city has brought the bustling place to a grinding halt. Old revenue maps of Chennai indicated that its terrain was crisscrossed by a vast network of water bodies. But in a bid to usher the city into illustrious map of economic boom, several exemptions were waived off and the catchment areas are offered to lure the enterprises to set up their business. Thus, unrestrained constructions began to prop up across the length and breadth of the city including the marshy suburbs. Sprawling gated communities have eaten away many lakes and catchment areas. Even the drainage system was completely choked with rainwater finding no place to go settled on the roads. Record high rainfall exposed the disaster vulnerability of the city. Amidst the disaster exemplary resilience, solidarity displayed by citizens of Chennai during the disaster is truly commendable.

While India is ruthlessly branded as obstructionist at the ongoing Paris Climate Summit for its sustained campaign on the developed countries to cut their GHG (Green House Gases) emissions, India’s concerns about climate change are genuine and compelling. India of late has become victim of extreme weather events, a fall out of Climate change. A series of major natural calamities in the past decade have severely dented the hard earned bounties of Indian economy. The record high rainfall of 944 mm on June 26^th 2005 in Mumbai has brought the Maximum City to its knees. Around 5000 people were killed in all and lives of 20 million were affected and entailed financial losses of 5000 crores. This was followed by Cyclone Aila in 2009 that struck West Bengal wherein endangered Tiger species submerged in Sunderbans. In August 2010, Ladakh region, known to receive scant rainfall witnessed cloudbursts causing incessant rains and landslides resulting in huge losses to life and property. In 2013, India was stuck by the worst calamity ever wherein the states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were affected. Altogether the states received 385.1 mm rainfall in 18 days leading to severe landslides in the hilly terrains, overflowing rivers and intense flooding. According to unofficial reports, over 10,000 people were reported to be killed and caused irreparable damage to fragile ecosystem of the Himalayan terrain. Property worth 1000 crores was lost and a whopping 75lakh hectares of agricultural lands were badly affected. In September 2014, Jammu and Kashmir received 558 mm rainfall over a week, increased commercial activities, embankments of rivers and indiscriminate cutting of forests have aggravated the crisis paralyzing entire state machinery. The financial losses of J&K were pegged at 5700 crores. Even before India could heave a sigh of relief, extremely severe cyclonic storm Hudhud, a tropical cyclone hit the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh causing extensive damage to the tune of 21,908 crores. Over the past 14 years, India has faced 131 instances of major flooding, 21 instances of hot and cold waves and several instances of drought. In fact drought conditions of past years took severe toll on the food grain production leading to suicides of farmers and escalation of prices of pulses. The characteristic erratic rainfalls witnessed in recent years across different parts of India has not only reduced crop yields but also intensified pest attacks. By and large these phenomenal losses have stunted the economic trajectory of the country and rich dividends of development are lost.

Climate models and statistical approach studies used by NASA too have predicted that in future monsoons in India will become more erratic.  An independent study was carried out by IIM Ahmedabad, IIT Gandhinagar and the Council of Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) to assess climate changes in India and to identify financial & technological knowledge gaps in adaptation. The report titled Climate Change and India Adaptation Gap (2015)- A preliminary assessment, released two days back indicated that eastern parts of India are likely to receive more amounts of rainfall, central India is at the risk of becoming drought prone and that average night temperatures are likely to increase by 1-1.5 degrees over next 30 years. Several parts of India are close to 2-degree rise in temperature. These changes have already resulted in annual loss of $5-6 billion and by the year 2030 these might rise of $360 billion. India last year has spent about 4.9% of its GDP on adaptation and by 2030 this will increase to 5.4%. Unfortunately, as India leaps towards excessive rainfall and increasing number of hot days and reducing number of crop growing days, yields will drastically come down. With droughts expected to loom large in central India water stress will increase. Thus India is likely to brace the double whammy of decreased water availability and exacerbated malnutrition. Incidentally the erratic rainfall and climate change in Punjab led to severe pest infestation which spiraled into an unrest sending jitters across India. The water stress and impending drought in Central is believed has fuelled the rise in Maoist movement. The debilitating effects of climate change are felt across the globe. Rise in sea-levels and inundation of the fertile coastal lands in Bangladesh has triggered the wave of migration leading to an internal calumny. In part, the Arab Spring in the Middle East was heralded by rising food prices and the initial trigger for the Syrian crisis was food and water shortages.

 

The collated data of losses caused by the extreme weather conditions in India indicated that biggest losses were coming from floods which is $51 billion. Ironically despite being ravaged by worst natural calamities India miserably failed in containing the damages. Apart from the National Adaptation Fund, India has 21 government schemes that are linked to climate change adaptation. Though budgetary commitment towards adaptation measures have increased consistently, it falls short of the cumulative requirement. As severity of extreme weather events increases, the commensurate losses would increase in terms of allocating extra funds towards agriculture, revamping public health sector, infrastructure and water resources.

Till now India’s approach towards climate change has been nugatory, there are serious adaptation gaps. In order to contain the losses smart solutions like flood proofing, floating agricultural systems, desalination plants, electric vehicles and smart grids must be quickly imported from the west and adopted. Robust long term measures like bridging knowledge gaps and capacity building must be developed on war footing basis. By 2030, the adaptation gaps cumulatively will increase to $1 trillion. To fill the technology gaps, India and other developing countries are pitching hard for the Green Climate Fund, $100 billion a year from 2020 at the Paris Summit. But sadly, developed countries have so far pledged a measly $10 billion. Whatever be the outcome of the COP-21 it is amply clear that India is going to be hit hard by climate change. But if India fails to get fair share at the Paris Summit, it be hard-crushed for finances too.

On the basis of the per capita carbon emission India are fairly low and contributes to 6% of the World’s emissions. India on its part has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), accordingly it will reduce 30-35% of emission intensity by 2030 when compared to the 2005 levels. But India’s commitments are considered less since its GDP growth is expected to rise dramatically and hence majority of its emissions are yet to come. Additionally India’s economy is majorly coal-based; hydro and nuclear power are still largely untapped. It is time, India makes crucial choice about its development plans. If India intends to follow China’s path of economic trajectory with manufacturing as its key enterprise India will soon be reeling under the burden of spiraling emissions. Alternatively it can mitigate climate change and scale economy by recalibrating its development strategy and emerging as knowledge superpower. May it is time to reenergize its intellectual pool, revive and revitalize the National Innovation Foundation (NIF). In fact India should consider softer industrialization like pioneering in computer programming, research and development, genomics, pharmaceuticals, handicrafts, jewelry making, gem cutting & polishing, textiles, food processing,  etc. These on long term can evade the disastrous effects of GHC emissions and can the deleterious effects of climate change in long term.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations (IPCC) in its report warned India to view a natural disaster not as a standalone event of nature’s fury but to discern the role played by the complacent development policies that magnify the devastation in the event of such calamities. The effects of climate change are imminent and India can no longer afford to have an Ostrich like approach to climate change. Scientific data of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology indicates that events with high rainfall (more than 100mm per day) and very heavy rainfall (more than 150 mm) have been on a rise while moderate events (5-100mm) have reduced. Even the IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that India will get more rainfall in less number of days and that extreme precipitation during monsoon would also increase. All these tragedies indicate that India is no longer impenetrable to climate changes.

 

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Modi Courts ASEAN

Act East policy elucidated by Modi at the 12^th Indo-ASEAN Summit meet of Nay Pyi Taw in 2014 received a fresh impetus with his recently concluded visit to Malaysia and Singapore. During his visit Modi has addressed the 13^th Indo-ASEAN summit and the 10th East Asian Summit (EAS) at Kuala Lumpur. Robust regional organization- Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprising of ten South East Asian nations have a crucial role in global stability partly due to its strategic location and the economic prosperity of the nations. These nations include- Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei and Myanmar.  India’s engagement with ASEAN began in 1992 and was formally elevated to Indo-ASEAN summit in 2012 at Phnom Penn, Cambodia (on par with China, Japan and South Korea), following which summits are held annually. Over a period of time India and ASEAN have signed joint declarations for cooperation on combating international terrorism (2003) under the Treaty of Cooperation in South East Asia (TAC), Plan of action for partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity (2004-2010). In 2012 ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Group (EPG) was established to explore ways to deepen and widen partnership. Finally in 2015, India established a separate Diplomatic Mission to ASEAN to work in tandem with the ASEAN secretariat in Jakarta. ASEAN is India’s fourth largest trading partner of India while India is its sixth biggest trade partner with volume of trade accounting for $76.52 billion. But India’s relations with ASEAN steadily dwindled due to the meek foreign policy stratagem of UPA-II. The last bilateral visit to Malaysia by an Indian Prime Minister was in 2010.

With China positing itself as an emerging superpower, India can no longer afford to remain inactive. The latest aggressive posturing of China and the escalating frailties between China and US has turned the South Asian region into a fiefdom of rivalry. Nine dashed line doctrine advocated China has already turned the region hostile with Beijing laying claims over 90% of South China Sea (SCS). Further its undeterred, frantic land reclamation activities intensified the conflicts in the region. Six of its neighbors- Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Cambodia intimidated by China’s aggressive posturing are now reassessing their strategies and looking forward a counter balance in the region. Burgeoning frictions prompted ASEAN countries to look at India which is considered as a “benign power” in the region, an effective counterbalance with its size and market potential on par with China. India too asserted its concerns over the growing hostilities in the SCS and raised pitch for freedom of navigation in the region and resolution of disputes in SCS in accordance to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS). Having recently settled the long pending maritime dispute with Bangladesh though international arbitration, it showcased it commitment in resolving the issues peacefully. Interestingly, in the recently concluded joint statement with Philippines its referred to SCS as the West Philippine Sea at the insistence of Manila who have moved its dispute with China over SCS to the International Court of Justice, Hague. India is thus slowly emerging as a balancing power in the region. To challenge China, India should not only evolve into a robust economy but also forge strong defence ties with countries in this region. To this end, India has initiated talks Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with ASEAN in 2012 which was successfully ratified in January 2015 and came into force on July 1^st 2015. With this the trade between India and ASEAN is expected to reach $200 billion by 2022.

During this visit, Modi dynamically steered India’s pursuit of engaging in the race of regional economic integration by expediting talks on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement between ASEAN, India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. At the India- ASEAN summit, Modi has announced a $1 billion credit line for the projects that promote physical digital connectivity between India and ASEAN and announced e-VISAs for the nationals of all the 10 countries. Modi stressed on the need for renewed cooperation between parties to counter the menacing global threat of terrorism through adoption of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism and reiterated the need for peaceful settlement of the territorial and maritime disputes in SCS. He called for evolving specific strategies to enhance cooperation in the fields of maritime security, counter-piracy, humanitarian and disaster relief. New Delhi intends to create project development countries to develop manufacturing hubs in countries like Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam. Science, Technology and Innovation have been three important areas of cooperation which eventually laid foundation for stronger economic partnership. Hence India would enhance the India-ASEAN Science and Technology Development Fund from $1 million to 5 million. Also India-ASEAN Innovation Platform would be set up to promote commercialization of low cost technologies, technology transfers and collaborative R & D projects. Another vital area of cooperation is space and India aspires to develop a station in Vietnam, Modi offered indigenously developed GPS aided Geo augmented navigation (GAGAN) systems to ASEAN. Modi witnessed the signature ceremony of the Kuala Lumpur Declaration that aims to establish an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which aims to create an environment for free movement of capital and commodities among the ASEAN community by December 31^st 2015. Emphasizing the importance of connectivity on prosperity, Modi announced the trilateral Highway between India-Myanmar-Thailand, famed as Road to Mandalay, is expected to be completed by 2018. The 3200 km trilateral highway will connect Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand, will run through Mandalay in Myanmar. This along with Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport model which will connect Kolkata to Sittwae port in Myanmar and then to Mizoram by river and road form the corner stone for Act East Policy. The framework for the Kaladan port cum inland waterway was signed in 2008 and is likely to be completed by 2015. Modi has also proposed to cooperate for sustainable ocean economy or blue economy. Besides he also intensely wooed Malaysian investors and encouraged them to invest in India by affirmatively articulating the positive reports on Indian economy projected by various western entities.

Speaking at the 10^th East Asian Summit (EAS) Modi taking a dig at Pakistan and China alternatively opined that no country should support or use terrorism and that territorial disputes should be resolved as per agreed code of conduct. He opined that countries should delink religion from terrorism and make an effort to inculcate human values. He suggested that Asia-Pacific countries must strive to enhance cooperation in cyber security, outer space and on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. He also had bilateral talks with Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese Premier Li Kequiang along the sidelines of the meet.

Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak rolled out a red carpet to Modi and during the crucial bilateral talks it was intended to intensify strategic cooperation. Three MoU’s on cyber security, public administration and culture were signed. Modi sought Malaysian cooperation in expansion and up gradation of infrastructure, Make in India and Smart Cities Project. Bilateral trade between India and Malaysia stands at $14 billion with Indian imports which includes mineral fuels, animal and vegetable oils valued at $9.7 billion. Malaysian investments in India worth over $ 7 billion are in infrastructure and construction sectors while Indian companies like Mahindra, Wipro, TCS, Reliance, IRCON, Kirloskar, Bajaj, L&T have invested over $2.3 billion in Malaysia. Both sides have discussed on the possibility of revving up defence cooperation including joint production. Modi along with his Malaysian counterpart inaugurated Torana Gate a gift from India marking the launch of Little India Project. It is an intricately sculpted structure inspired by the Buddhist Stupa of Sanchi. Later Modi unveiled statue of Swami Vivekananda at the Rama Krishna Mission and then addressed over 15,000 Indian Community at the Malaysia International Exhibition and Convention Centre. The 2 million strong Indian Diaspora account 8% of Malaysian population. Modi thrilled the audience with his ebullient oratory starting off by addressing the gathering in Tamil and then continued his extempore in English. He reaffirmed that India’s strength lies in its unique diversity and paid homage to the India’s freedom fighters and soldiers who fought in the World War-II and commended the contributions of Indian community during post-quake period in Gujarat. He announced a grant of $1 million to Indian-Students Trust Fund for financial assistance to Malay-Indian student and pronounced that Indian Culture Centre will be named after Subash Chandra Bose.

Modi travelled to Singapore on 23^rd November and delivered the 37^th Singapore lecture on organized by the Institute of South East Asian Studies- Yusof Ishak Institute. Modi earlier visited Singapore in March 2015 to pay homage to the architect of the modern Singapore Lee Kuan Yew. India was the second country to establish diplomatic relations with Singapore in 1965 immediately after its independence. India supported Singapore’s membership to UN and Non-Aligned Movement paving way for international recognition of a fledging nation. Marking 50 years of establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Singapore, Modi held ode to the exceptional economic odyssey of Singapore which is source of eternal inspiration for countries in modern era. Speaking about rise of Asia, Modi enunciated that the wisdom of ancient cultures and religions, dynamism of its youth force has been driving force of the continent. He reiterated India’s commitment to work closely with nations in this region to ensure that the oceans, space and cyber remain areas of shared prosperity and not turn into avenues of disputes. Contemplating on his vision for India, he expressed firm conviction towards reforming laws, policies, institutions, regulations and processes to make India the ideal place for investment destinations. Indeed Singapore is India’s largest trading partner in South East Asia and also the biggest source and destination of Indian investments. Singapore has played a vital role in starting first IT park at Bengaluru and currently helping in building state capital of Andhra Pradesh, Amaravati. Modi finally appealed that it is time India- Japan-China-Singapore to come together to realize the vision of Asian century.  He also paid tribute to Lee Kuan Yew, founder of Singapore who believed in latent potential of India and her role abroad more than many other Indians.

Modi had bilateral meetings with his counterpart Lee Hsein Loong, both countries have signed 10 pacts and released a joint statement on strategic partnership. India and Singapore has elevated ties to strategic partnership to broaden existing areas of cooperation from “politics, defence, and security cooperation, economic, cultural and people-to-people relations”. Upgradatioon of the defence partnership will elevate dialogue to ministerial level giving more strength to the strategic partnership. The existing joint military exercises and training of armies, navies and air forces will continue. Further both countries will collaborate in defence technology, co-development and co-production. The other major areas of cooperation include- maritime security, sharing of white-water information, bilateral coast guard cooperation, counter-terrorism, transnational organized crime. A MoU was signed between Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-IN) and Singapore Emergency Response Team (Sing CERT), Singapore’s Cyber Security Agency on cyber security. Other MoUs were signed in the areas of combatting illicit narcotic drugs trafficking, art and culture, civil aviation, town planning and planning bodies. While Singapore sought doubling of flights from India, Modi wanted Singapore to play a key role in up gradation of railway stations in India.

At the India- Singapore Economic Convention, Modi has made a huge pitch for India as a manufacturing hub and Make in India initiative was launched to bolster manufacturing sector. He also assured that India is strongly committed to combat climate change and tried to attract investors from Singapore. Modi became the first ever Indian Prime Minister to visit the Indian National Army (INA) Memorial at Esplanade Park in Singapore to pay homage to the INA soldiers and officers who lost their lives in battle for India’s independence.  He also toured the Institute of Technical Education (ITE) headquarters and spent time at the ITE College Central’s Maritime Training Centre, Aerospace hub where students were given training in inspection and maintenance of various aircrafts. It is believed that Modi is keen on bringing home this vocational and technical education to be imparted to Indian youth under the Skill India Initiative. Modi addressed 18,000 strong crowd Indian amidst rousing chants at Singapore Expo Halls in eloquent Hindi. Praising the emphatic rise of island state, Singapore he cited that India needs to learn many lessons.

Modí’s visit to Malaysia and Singapore has been a resounding success. India is now contemplating on expanding its strategic footprints in the ASEAN region and hence significantly elevated its engagement to strategic cooperation. Till now Indian foreign policy plagued by diffidence and inaction has remained engrossed in the prolonged phase of diplomatic inaction. Modi has displayed a spark of ambitious engagement with the Tiger Economies of the Asian continent that have great strategic and economic importance. Currently, South East Asian region has become home of fierce conflicts with China intimidating neighboring countries and resolutely defending its claims. ASEAN countries are now looking to India as a strategic counter balance. India must now walk the talk and emerge as a robust and viable economy to rise up to the expectations of the ASEAN countries and to defend it quintessence resurgence.