India reaches a major milestone by taking over the operations of Chabahar port

Setting the precedent of surging ahead in the pursuit of overcoming the barriers of connectivity, India formally took over operations of the Chabahar port on December 24^th. The historic moment which can be reckoned as major foreign policy milestone have boosted India’s efforts of rebuilding war-torn Afghanistan. India’s joint venture company, India Ports Global company began functioning from its offices at Shaheed Behesti Port Chabahar. Soon Joint Secretaries of all the three countries-India, Iran and Afghanistan held first follow-up committee meeting for implementation of the trilateral Chabahar agreement. They agreed on the routes for trade and transit corridors between three countries and finalisation of the protocol to “harmonise transit, roads, customs and consular matters”. They even discussed measures to decrease logistics costs. Second round of meeting will be held on February 26^th 2019 to promote and popularise the port.

Pakistan denied land access to Indian goods crippling India’s trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Ever since India has been exploring ways to bypass Pakistan. Giving a major fillip to India’s connectivity, Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Iran signed trilateral agreement for Establishment of International Transport and Transit in 2016. India even signed a MoU with EXIM Bank which extended a line of credit of $150 million for refurbishing the port and $85 million towards development of two berths at Chabahar.

In 2003 NDA-I regime headed by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee realised the strategic significance of the Chabahar, the only Iranian port along the Makran coast which has direct access to Indian Ocean. Indian government subsequently initiated talks with Iran government. But with Iran coming under sanctions regime in 2005, talks on Chabahar talks took a back seat. Incidentally, against the backdrop of Iran signing a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or widely known Iranian Nuclear Deal with P5 countries and Germany, when all economic sanctions were lifted on Iran, India finalised the Chabahar deal.  After President Trump unilaterally pulled out from the JCPOA in May 2018 a fresh round of US sanctions kicked off from November 4^th. A gloom of uncertainty loomed over Chabahar port agreement. Subsequently India held talks with American officials seeking waiver of port from US sanctions.

India relentlessly worked towards reconstruction of Afghanistan by offering unstinted financial support, training Afghanistan security forces and in capacity building. Last year when Afghanistan was hit by drought India shipped 1.1 million tonnes of Wheat through Chabahar port. This move not only paved way for operationalisation of the port but expanded the trading opportunities with land-locked Afghanistan. Pakistan by refusing transit of Indian goods through its territory tried to consolidate its control over Afghanistan through Taliban. India steadily worked towards exploring the alternate access to Afghanistan through Chabahar. Simultaneously, India opened air-cargo corridor to Afghanistan to overcome Pakistan barrier for trade. In 2017, Iran offered India a proposal to manage phase I for two years, subsequently Tehran gave India approval for operating two berths and few terminals in Phase II for ten years. In the meanwhile, China intensified its efforts to develop the Gwadar port 76 nautical miles from Chabahar. Going by the pace of Chinese construction, observers believed that Chabahar would face stiff competition from Gwadar located in Baluchistan province of Pakistan. Back then Union Minister for Shipping, Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari announced that Chabahar operationalisation would start by end of December.  America which is fighting war against in Afghanistan for the past 17 years appreciated India’s efforts. Trump acknowledged India’s role in his South Asia strategy. Last month America announced its exemption for Chabahar port and added that, “it relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development of Afghanistan. These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief”. India’s fervent efforts finally bore fruit and formal operations began this week.

Chabahar besides providing alternate sea access to Afghanistan will play a pivotal role in bolstering India’s attempts to buttress connectivity with Russia. India is planning to construct a railway line to Zahedan which can connect to International North-South Corridor. Currently Indian shipments to Afghanistan are transported on the Delaram-Zaranj road constructed by New Delhi. Road from the Afghan-Iran border to Chabahar already exists. Afghan Permanent representative to UN welcomed America’s decision, “The Chabahar port remains an important gateway for providing commercially viable access to the sea linking the Indian Ocean with Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. In this regard we appreciate the collaboration and flexibility of our strategic partner, the United States to work with Afghanistan, Iran and India towards exempting the port from its sanctions”.

Challenges

India’s venture in the Gulf region through which nearly 70% of the imports flow to the rest of the World is a real game changer. India leasing operationalisation of Chabahar for a decade from Iran at the height of US-Iran rivalry is replete of several challenges.

India Ports Global (60:40 joint venture between Jawaharlal Port Trust and Deen Dayal Trust, Kandla) is a private entity. Now government of India is slowly obtaining shares of the company else the private company which face the threat of getting black listed for doing business with Iran as per American sanctions. In 2016, Indian Ports Global signed an agreement Aria Banader Iranian port to run the container and multi-purpose terminal at Shaheed Behesti port. Iran even demanded a Euro-denominated bank guarantee in 2016 to generate minimum business at the port. Since fresh round of US sanctions, Iran has come down. As per latest estimates the port is assured of annual business worth $22.95 million. Weeks before final operations are to begin at Chabahar, armed Sunni-group Ansar a-Furquan carried out a suicide bomb attack that killed two people and left 43 injured. This reminded India of complex discord in the region. Besides the exemption on Chabahar port, America sanctioned waivers to eight countries including India for importing oil from Iran till March 2019. India prefers Iranian crude for its 60-day credit, free shipping and insurance. Iran is the largest supplier of oil to India. To overcome sanctions barrier, India and Iran have signed an agreement in November 2^nd for oil payment in rupees and 50% of these funds had been earmarked for exports. India is exploring the possibility of similar payment mechanism with Russia, Venezuela. Iran couldn’t risk the possibility of zeroing of imports from Iran considering its ever-increasing demand for oil which make up for 83% of India’s total imports. Aside energy security good ties with Iran are extremely important for India to over Pakistan barrier and to bolster its trade and commerce with Chabahar serving as the connectivity hub.

Indo-Iranian Ties

India’s ties with Iran are several centuries old. In contemporary times strengthened the North Alliance to overthrown the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Iran, western neighbour of Pakistan is always at logger heads with Islamabad rooted in sectarian differences. Going by the old logic of enemy of an enemy is a friend India renewed friendly ties Iran to hedge against Pakistan in this multipolar world.

Despite the convergence over Afghanistan issue in 1990s there are several irritants in Indo-Iranian relations. In 2005, India supported the International Atomic Energy Agency report backed by American at the UNSC leading to imposition of multilateral sanctions against Iran for its stealth nuclear infrastructure and nuclear ambitions. Angered by India’s stand, Iran cancelled LNG exports to India. Indian Space Agency, ISRO launched an anti-Iranian Israeli spy satellite in 2008. India and Iran had serious differences over the ONGC explorations in 2010 and the much-touted oil pipe line between India and Iran never took off.

On the other hand, Iran extended financial support to Kashmiri insurgents fighting government of India during the 1987-elections. Similarly, in 2012 Iran is alleged to have sponsored attacks against Israeli diplomats in New Delhi. While Iran stayed away from making an issue out of strengthening Indo-Israel relations, India never interfered in sectarian Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry in the Gulf region. Both countries did tough balancing act, made several adjustments to prevent relations from deteriorating beyond point of no return.

Notwithstanding the sanction regime prior to the finalisation of JCPOA, during Obama regime, India continued to import oil from Iran by making payments in rupees. India thus made every effort to sustain the energy partnership. But now the precarious Indo-Iranian relations are challenged by the burgeoning US-Iran confrontation.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Unilateral withdrawal of American from the JCPOA and subsequent imposition of sanctions has left the country in a lurch. Prospects of a slippery financial situation frustrated the Iranian public who have been bearing the brunt of growing inflation, stalled incomes and unemployment. Protests erupted across the country. People rebelled against the Hassan Rouhani government that painstakingly negotiated nuclear deal with the west. Fundamentalists and Iranian clergy lashed out at America for reinstating second round of sanctions on Iran. Trump’s relentless attacks on Iran pushed into Russian orbit. Iran and Russia having fought Syrian on the same side are now seeking to strengthen their ties. Given, Iran’s importance for energy security and strategic geographic location in its global connectivity initiative, China ramped up cooperation with Tehran. Javad Zarif, foreign Minister of Iran, invited China to invest in Chabahar before unilateral American sanctions. Considering the ongoing the trade conflicts between China and America, Chabahar wouldn’t have be granted exemption had China invested in the port development.

On the contrary, pestering Afghan war is making America desperate. Trump administration is losing patience. It openly castigated Pakistan for failing to rein in on Taliban. Unlike in the past when Iran and Russia were on the opposite sides, Tehran is now on same page with Russia, China and Pakistan with respect to Taliban. Indian interests find congruence with those of America with respect to Afghanistan. Essentially Trump’s disruptive foreign policy decision and growing rift with Iran steadily changed the geopolitical power equations.

Win-Win Scenario

By seeking waiver of sanctions, India asserted the strategic importance of Chabahar port in its efforts to revive war-torn Afghanistan and for enhancing prospects of trade and commerce with Central Asian countries. Through operationalisation of port, India ensured that Iran could partake some economic returns providing much needed succour. In the process, New Delhi sent a message that despite its robust defence cooperation and growing ties with America, India will not make comprises on its strategic interests.

While Iran might be miffed by India cutting the oil imports from Iran to zero by March end, relentless anti-Iran campaign by America will increase India’s leverage. Iran will be forced to expedite the conclusion of agreement for use of local currencies in trade. This can prove beneficial for India’s agricultural exports as well. Incidentally, India and Iran are close to finalisation of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that would reduce tariffs on identified 80 to 100 products purchased from other country.

Chabahar is India’s first foreign port investment which has potential to shore up India’s trade potential. This is a huge opportunity to Iran as unlike the Bandar Abbas port which opens into Gulf of Hormuz, Chabahar is a deep port and opens directly into Indian Ocean.

In the first week of December, in response to Iran’s test firing of a medium range-ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple war heads, America deployed Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis as a deterrence and task force that can support America’s fight against IS in Syria and war in Afghanistan. Iran had also deployed an anti-aircraft stealth destroyer in Straits of Hormuz. Thus, it its maiden foray into the Middle East, India will inadvertently witness and experience the intense confrontations in the region.

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Crucial Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections

South Asia has become seat for high stake geopolitics. Nearly all the countries in the region have embraced democracy. But the fledging democratic institutions are still grappling with political crisis and conundrum. The constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka, military intervention in Pakistan’s electoral process and imposition of state of emergency in Maldives this year stands testimony to this observation. Bangladesh, the South West neighbour of India with which the country shares over 4000 km border is going to polls on December 30^th.  Bangladesh which is liberated in 1971 witnessed 19 coups, authoritarian leaderships and martial law till 1996.   Sadly, even now elections are marred by violence.  As the country prepares for the 11^th Parliamentary elections for choosing 350 members for the Jagtiyo-Sansad (House of the Nation) Election commission has ordered deployment of troops to ensure conduct of free and fair polls.

Unlike the last elections in 2014, when BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) has boycotted the polls, this year the contest is going to be intense. As a pre-condition, BNP demanded conduct of elections under a neutral, caretaker government and release of its leader Begum Khaleda Zia who is now serving jail sentence for embezzlement of funds. Except shifting of election by a week, none of the demands were accepted. Realising that it hardly has any choice, the principal opposition party BNP known for its strong links with fundamentalist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is getting ready for elections. Hence the elections are not going to be a cake-walk for Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangabhandu, founder of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rahman. Struggling hard for political relevance, BNP is now determined to give a tough fight to AL. It must be noted that for the first time in Bangladesh history, elections are not conducted by a caretaker government.

Pro-India Awami League is going to polls with coalition partners Jatiya Party of HM Ershad, former President of Bangladesh, an Islamist party Hejafat-e-Islam and Bikalpdhara Bangladesh party. BNP is going to enter electoral fray after a gap of five years is allied with Jatiya Okiya Front (United National Front), led by Dr Kamal Hossain of Gono Forum. Earlier AL and BNP are clearly distinguished as pro-Liberation, secular front and anti-liberation, Islamic front. In the current elections both parties allied with a coalition of parties with varied distinctions and eventually inherited bunch of contradictions. 

BNP, a pro-Pakistan party, joined hands with Hossain known for his secular credentials and JeI, an avowed fundamentalist Islamic group. Hossein is known to be close to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and is believed to have played a crucial role in shaping AL after Hasina’s exile in 1981. He formed a four-party alliance just before elections. So far, Bangladesh witnessed a turf battle between two begums which seemed to be more or less evenly poised. But the situation is markedly different now.

Overzealous Hasina, in a bid to contain split of Islamist votes joined hands with radical Islamist group. In the recently held local elections, huge number of Islamists were elected on AL’s ticket. This essentially quashed the hopes of Hasina maintaining the secular credence in Bangladesh.

BNP and its core supporter JeI are fighting for political survival. BNP is hamstrung by lack of leadership with Khaleda Zia serving sentence. Her son, Tarique Rahman convicted for assassination bids against Shiekh Hasina is at large and overseeing the poll preparations from London. His candidature has been disqualified by election commission. In absence of experienced leadership, JeI have taken over the charge of selecting and fielding candidates. JeI was banned in the initial days of Bangladesh formation. But subsequently, political parties lifted the ban. It has become crucial partner of BNP in 2001 and its chief and general secretary served as ministers as well. JeI was deregistered by election commission in 2013. Following High Court’s intervention, the party’s candidates are now contesting in polls as independents. Majority of its cadres are facing charges of war crimes are either sentenced or serving life terms for siding with the Pakistani troops during 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war. JeI which has strong links with Pakistan ISI handlers have good support in the border regions. It has fielded candidates in 25 of the 300 seats under the BNP’s party symbol of sheaf of paddy leaf. Even as AL is wary of JeI making electoral gains, reports of Pakistan meddling in Bangladesh elections exacerbated its fears.

In the run up to elections, a seven-minute leaked conversation between BNP leader Khandaker Moshraff Hossain and Pakistan ISI officer with references to use of Chinese money surfaced. BNP is known to have close ties with Pakistan and this critical evidence added more heft to the suspicions of the ruling party. Around the same news of Charge d affaires, of Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, Shah Faisal Kakar and defense adviser Brigadier Kamran Nazir Malik met three members of BNP standing committee- Mirza Abbas, Aminul Haq and Khandaker Moshraff Hossain. Alleged reference to Chinese money has become a cause for concern for India given its implicit role in recently concluded Maldivian and Sri Lankan political crisis. India’s fears don’t seem far-fetched considering $34 billion Chinese investments and 25% stakes in Bangladesh stock exchange, Bangladesh is second largest recipient of Chinese money after Pakistan in South Asia. Meddling by external agents and vested interests in elections are commonly reported in Western countries. But countries in South Asia are now finding place in such reports recently. Given, Pakistan’s deep roots in Bangladesh and its all-weather friendship with China, allegations of external meddling can’t be ruled out.

The relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh have been heading south. Recently Bangladesh refused to accept Saqlain Syedah as Pakistani High Commissioner following reports of the diplomatic office being used for fostering ISI activities. Bangladesh even supported India’s stand of boycotting the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2016 protesting Pakistan’s hand in terror activities. Brutal terror attack in Dhaka high-end eatery in 2016 investigations revealed Pakistan’s role. Ever since Sheikh Hasina has unequivocally expressed serious objections to Pakistan’s interference in Bangladesh. These reports have certainly strengthened the claims of Hasina.  

AL on the other hand, is facing the heat anti-incumbency and rumours of corruption. People are growing wary of Hasina’s growing authoritarian streak of overbearing surveillance, crackdown on freedom of speech, detention of journalists and activists at the drop of the hat. Airing concerns over instances of intimidation of opposition leaders since September Human Rights Watch raised alarm over existing repressive atmosphere in Bangladesh. Burgeoning reports of false and fabricated cases slapped against the opposition parties, protestors, disappearance and death of poll agents clearly threatened the credibility of elections. The international forum called upon countries to ensure free and fair elections. As a matter of fact, observers from 16 countries have arrived in Bangladesh for conduct of violence free polls.

Despite Hasina’s severe crackdown on dissent, a vast majority hail her decade regime for phenomenal economic growth. For the year 2017-18 Bangladesh recorded 7.86% growth rate, higher than all the developing countries. Country’s economic progress registered upward trajectory since 2008 aided by steadily growing manufacturing sector. The country which is often in the headlines for natural disasters reached a historical moment this year, by graduating from the “least developed country” to a “developing economy” this elevation is an outcome of the broader ambitious vision of Sheikh Hasina. Buoyed by the strong economic growth, people are keen on re-electing Hasina and the party is banking on its developmental agenda to get back to power an unprecedented third time.

But bogged down by allegations of creeping authoritarianism, AL is revoking liberation war and doggedly hunting down on the worst perpetrators of the genocide (opposition BNP & JeI leaders for collaborating with Razakars). Simultaneously AL is seeking the apology of Pakistan for its excesses during the liberation movement. Conforming to worse doubts of people BNP’s formidable supporter JeI is calling for realignment with Pakistan. As a result, BNP is increasingly viewed as party inimical to country’s progress and development and pro-Pakistan.

Despite its contradictions, election analysts contend that BNP would fare well in the border regions while AL will be voted to power in all likelihood for its initiatives, stability and pragmatic economic policies. Though people are miffed by AL’s high-handed politics, muzzling of press, free speech and even patronising criminal elements, BNP as an alternative seems to be worse. But some strategists believe that BNP still has a larger ground presence and support. Barred from elections at the eleventh hour, BNP is expected to garner the sympathy vote of people. Further, BNP’s revival through coalition partners is believed to have reintegrated the core religious forces in the country. Going by Bangladesh’s electoral history  where parties won elections by a margin of 2-3% votes, the scales can tilt in either direction.

Implications for India

Living up to the pledge of cracking down on anti-India terror modules operating from Bangladesh, after taking charge in 2008, Hasina dismantled the terror camps along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Insurgency activities in the North-East have significantly reduced and Indian intelligence agencies credit Awami League for this marked difference. Besides, in the past ten years, India and Bangladesh significantly ramped up cooperation. In 2015, both countries peacefully resolved the four-decade long Land Boundary Agreement and maritime dispute. While the Teesta waters issue still remains a bone of contention, both parties have agreed not to gloat about their differences. Energy cooperation, connectivity and infrastructure development projects received a major boost under Hasina’s regime. Operationalisation of bus, train and river ports between the countries have improved people to people connect. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are now worth $10 billion. New Delhi has extended $7.5 billion credit line for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Above all, Bangladesh is essential cog for India’s Act East Policy. Though the bilateral ties have improved significantly there are still major irritants to this relationship. India’s take on Rohingya deportation, NRC in Assam, tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed on Bangladeshi goods are stoking anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Given, AL’s zero tolerance for terrorism, a third term for Hasina would bode well for India as opposed to BNP which is a Pakistan apologist. While a stable and sustaining democracy country in immediate neighbourhood can be an asset for India, a sweeping victory for AL would shrink space for political dissent in Bangladesh.

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After drawing blank in assembly elections BJP must reinvent itself for 2019 general elections

The much-awaited results for the five assembly elections are finally out. Results for the state of Madhya Pradesh are formally declared after almost 24 hours of the counting, turning it into a longest battle in the EVM era. BJP completely lost election battle in the Hindi heartland, which is its strongest base. Congress convincingly handed it over 3-0 defeat. Touted as the semi-finals before the general elections 2019, the outcomes of the results would indeed offer great insights about the perception of people towards the Modi regime as well. Undeniably the dark cloud of defeat had brought to fore the glaringly defects of the BJP machinery. Despite being the World’s largest political party with over 12 crore primary membership and well-oiled machinery of ground workers, BJP failed to set a narrative. While party cadres successfully mobilised people to vote, unlike their peers in leftist parties, they couldn’t highlight accomplishments of respective state governments. This electoral drubbing has come as a wakeup call to Modi-Shah duo whose electoral invincibility rattled the opposition. In the past four and half years, Prime Minister Modi through meaningful interventions brought about transformative changes in several sectors infusing fresh energy and driving the nation towards larger economic development. With his unstinted efforts and rigorous schedule of seventeen work hours a day, Modi evolved as towering personality with no political equals. Despite these positive attributes. Some thing seems to be gravely amiss.

BJP must be commended for its tough fight in Madhya Pradesh. Notwithstanding the 15 years of incumbency, BJP garnered 0.1% more votes than Congress but narrowly missed the majority mark. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will forever be remembered for his great contributions in pulling out the state from the BIMARU status. By bringing about new reforms in agriculture, he catapulted its ailing economy from financial throes. Though people widely acknowledge his phenomenal work the indifference and callousness of some legislators frustrated people. As elections neared, based on ground reports, Chouhan made desperate attempts replace the non-performing legislators with fresh faces. Though this move has contained some losses, it was rather insufficient. Even he made frantic moves to woo backward communities, promised to double the farm prices and announced several sops to win support of people.

In Rajasthan BJP managed to put up a respectable show despite the voter apathy. The loss in terms of absolute numbers from 165 seats in 2013 to 73 seems glaring, the marginal difference in votes polled between BJP and Congress is 1% or turns out be 1 lakh votes. Given the historical record of voting patterns of electorate rewarding BJP and Congress alternatively this may not be really of grave worry. But the issue of agrarian crisis is real and central government must come out with some strategy to alleviate this problem before the general elections. The mobilisation of the party cadre by the central command months before elections has saved party from the disgrace of being completely wiped out in the assembly elections. Besides the complaints of the leaders like Vasundhara Raje being not accessible to party cadres must be addressed and possibly the burden of responsibility should be shifted to shoulders of imaginative youth leaders.

 In Chhattisgarh, after three successful terms by the longest serving Chief Minister, Dr Raman Singh, the party faced a massive defeat. The huge vote share difference of 10% reflected people’s desperation for change. The state elections offered many lessons for the party. Though there is no denying that Singh made a stellar contribution in terms of developing a robust public distribution system for the newly carved out state of Chhattisgarh, he failed to reinvent himself. Interestingly even the state turned a blind eye to rapidly changing demographic composition of the state. The conversion factories had a free run. But the three successful tenures of BJP regime kept the red terror under control. Especially the state made significant progress in the last four and half years, in restricting the purview of red corridor to few pockets. With the change of guard, the menace extremist left wing violence might intensify. Reclaiming the support and trust of people of Chhattisgarh should therefore be among the top priorities of BJP.

The only saving grace for the largest political party of India in youngest state of India, Telangana has been s respectable win of strong Hindutva advocate, Raja Singh Lodh from the Goshamahal constituency. He defeated the nearest TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) candidate by a margin of 16,000 votes. BJP vote share in the state is mere 7%. Interestingly, MIM with 2.7% vote share managed to win 7 seats. TRS riding on the sentiment of statehood, swept the state. The party must indeed be thankful to Chandra Babu Naidu, TDP supremo who joined hands with Congress, its arch-rival, CPI and other local parties to launch Mahakutami as an alternative to TRS. Counting on the support of the settlers from Andhra, Naidu dreamt of making big gains in Telangana.  But people outrightly rejected TDPs politics and voted TRS enmasse. TRS gained immensely from this negative vote. But in the process, BJP’s poll prospects took a beating for failing to present its story in a way people can understand and appreciate. Besides, settlers found TRS as better alternative than Congress or TDP which are brazenly casteist.

MNF’s (Mizo National Front), an ally of BJP victory in Mizoram paved way for a Congress-mukt North East. Facing a decade long anti-incumbency, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. BJP made its debut in the Christian majority state by polling 8% votes. The Congress chief minister of Mizoram lost in both constituencies he contested.

The stunning defeat for BJP in five assembly elections months before the general elections came as a big jolt. For some time, people have been drawing similarities between the NDA-I of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Modi’s NDA-II to alert the party of plausible oversights and of unwarranted hubris. As a party which have grown from electoral strength to two parliamentary must now seriously introspect and possibly charter its game plan.

Firstly, BJP has the worst PR machinery which is totally incapable of presenting a narrative. While major financial reforms have hurt the core voter base of the party, the problem is exacerbated by inability of party foot soldiers who failed to convey the intent of the leadership in an effective way. 

Secondly, the political spectrum of India is tilted towards leftist ideology. Hence a right-wing party like BJP must work doubly hard and be very active in setting a narrative. A dedicated team of intellectuals effectively floating the ideology in a nuanced way should be pressed into action to highlight the achievement and accomplishments of the government.

Thirdly, it failed to identify the political vacuum in some states. After the decimation of the Congress from the twin Telugu states, its traditional strong holds, BJP showed little or no interest in making strong inroads into the South bound states.

Fourthly, despite tag of pro-Hindutva party, in the past four and half years, it has alienated itself from the Hindu causes. It hardly evinced interest in standing up for the cause of its dedicated voter base. Donning the mantle of secularism, BJP ambitiously aimed to burnish its image has the most committed secular apostle. Its trepidation and hesitation in taking unequivocal stance on issues like Sabarimala and Ayodhya has even punctured its image. Its strong credentials as supporter of Hindutva causes while in opposition as opposed to its subtle approach when in government confused people. People are now increasingly distrustful of BJP’s commitment.

Fifthly, BJP’s overambitious approach to showcase itself as saviour of minorities amidst orchestrated global tirade against its regime by vested interests has irked people. India has always been inclusive and there was absolutely no need for flaunt its attributes. But government’s indifference to rein in on foreign-funded institutions working in India with nefarious designs has caused disgruntlement among the majoritarian community.

Sixthly, one of the major poll planks of Modi during the 2014 elections has been rooting out corruption. Modi has delivered on this promise and till now there isn’t even a single charge of corruption against the government and its cabinet. But people are miffed by Modi’s inability to arrest, prosecute and jail the corrupt politicians of the scam-ridden UPA regime.

Seventhly, despite its commitment to respect the values of the Indic civilisation. Government hasn’t made even a single attempt to change the academic curriculum replete of twisted, distorted and viciously convoluted derision of India. Not even a single word has been changed in the text books that abuse the country, its long history, tradition and its glorious civilisation wealth.

Eightly, government’s apathy towards gaurakshaks and frailty in going by the false propaganda peddled by the vested groups and acceding to their false narratives without even investigation of individual cases has alienated the dedicated Hindu groups from the party. 

While the results of the assembly elections may not be indicative of the people’s resentment towards Prime Minister Modi. But with general elections few months away, BJP can’t be complacent. It must revitalise, revive and recharge the party cadres with new energy. Besides, it must strongly present its case as why it must be re-elected and why the government needs yet another term. Quintessentially, perception is the key. BJP must be able to present its story in an effective way. Else all the hard efforts of the party which has been working as a strong team infusing best of their energies, potentials will go down the drain. Also, with Congress on strong wicket, it is but inevitable that Rahul Gandhi will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Enthused by the resurgence, Congress might be reluctant to make concessions for other political parties or regional outfits. Similarly, TRS has been voicing for an anti-Congress, anti-BJP front for the upcoming elections and after its stupendous victory, it would push for an alliance with like-minded parties. Likely, the opposition parties, which were inclined to form a combined front against Modi till December 10^th might now part ways and align themselves into two fronts. BJP must capitalise on the opposition disunity through meticulous planning, mobilisation of workers and regrouping with friends. As a last-ditch attempt, BJP can bolster its chances of forming government in 2019 by passing some crucial legislations like long pending Satyapal Private Members Bill and possibly an ordinance on Ayodhya in the winter session of parliament which began yesterday.

People have pinned great hopes on Prime Minister Modi. The absolute majority conferred upon BJP in 2014 is a proof of people’s trust in the party led by Narendra Modi. Besides, inclusive economic growth, the land of Sanatana Dharma is yearning for a leader who can uphold the vitality of this hand.  BJP has shown promise of change and as it begins its preparation for the mega battle. It would bode if it can reflect on the famous Uttara Speech of Sri Aurobindo in 1909 where he says “I say no longer say that nationalism is a creed, a religion, a faith; I say that it is Sanatana Dharma which for us is nationalism. The Hindu nation was born with Sanatana Dharma, with it, it moves, and with it, it declines, and if Sanatana Dharma were capable of perishing, with the Sanatana Dharma it would perish. The Sanatana Dharma, that is nationalism”.  At the same time, keeping prejudices, narrow sectarian differences at bay the majoritarian community must make an unbiased assessment of political parties before exercising their votes in the interest of the country at large.

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Has India inadvertently walked into Pakistan’s emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-2

Indeed, India handed over Pakistan a diplomatic victory by sending two cabinet ministers for the ground laying ceremony. Pakistan rightly used this occasion to publicise this issue in portraying itself as peace mongering nation. With right PR and objectively choosing the propagandists/Pakistani leaning journalists from Indian media, Islamabad diligently enhanced the global visibility of the event. Taking cues from India’s tacit approval as a green signal for dialogue, Pakistan foreign office announced that it would invite India for SAARC summit at Islamabad. SAARC summit of Islamabad 2016 was stalled after India refused to participate after Pakistani trained terrorists attacked Indian military base at Uri killing 18 security personnel. Soon, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka backed down. The meet stood cancelled.

Following reports of Pakistani invitation for SAARC, India called bluff of Islamabad’s posturing and PR stating, “India is not a special invitee that Pakistan has the discretion to invite us. India is integral to SAARC”.  Sushma Swaraj clarified, “For many years the Indian government has been asking for Kartarpur corridor, only now Pakistan responded positively. It doesn’t mean the bilateral dialogue will start because of this, terror and talks can’t go together. The moment Pakistan stops terrorist activities in India, dialogue can start. But the dialogue is not connected with only Kartarpur corridor”.

At the ground-breaking ceremony in Pakistan on November 28^th, Congress leader Sidhu who went on a personal capacity hogged the limelight for his effortless ease in praising the Pakistani leadership. He went overboard saying, “there are tremendous possibilities in this corridor, only a political will was required which has been shown by an angel (Imran Khan) across the border and as well as government here”. Back in India, Congress missed no opportunity in complimenting Sidhu for his pioneering efforts in making the Kartarpur corridor proposal a reality. Known for his eccentricities, in a public meeting at the ceremony, Sidhu made deliberate references to Rafale deal. Soon, Imran Khan used this occasion to rake up Kashmir issue. Irresponsible, immature and irrelevant remarks of Khan attested his stature of puppet of Pakistan military.

Later MEA issued a statement objecting Khan’s reference to Kashmir “It is deeply regrettable that the Prime Minister of Pakistan chose to politicise the pious occasion meant to realise the long pending demand of the Sikh community to develop Kartarpur corridor by making unwarranted reference to Jammu and Kashmir which is an integral and inalienable part of India”. With these unwarranted references, Khan has unwittingly unravelled the nefarious intentions of Pakistan in accepting India’s request for opening Kartarpur Sahib shrine for Sikh pilgrims. By ridiculing India and Prime Minister Modi, Khan has made a spectacle out of the issue which is supposed to foster good will and friendship between both nations.

The presence of Pakistan army chief Qamar Bajwa at the ground laying ceremony underlined the centrality of military’s role in the entire game plan. Khalistani leader in Pakistan, Gopal Chawla, a close aid of Hafiz Saeed mastermind of 26/11 attended the event and posed with Sidhu. Sidhu’s unusual bonhomie and servility in Pakistan sparked a massive outrage. Following intense backlash from media, Congress which has earlier backed Sidhu eventually distanced from his comments. Coming under intense fire, Sidhu in an interview claimed that Congress high command, Rahul Gandhi and Ahmed Patel have arranged a special flight for him to Pakistan. Connecting these dots, it is now amply clear at the behest of Congress party, Sidhu has been throwing barbs at Modi and even raked Rafale issue.

In 2015 Mani Shankar Aiyar on his visit to Pakistan at a panel discussion in Pakistani Channel responding to a question on impasse between both countries said, “The first and foremost thing is to remove Modi. Only then talks can move forward. We have to wait for four more years. They (panellists) are all optimist and that they can move forward when Modi Sahab is there, but I don’t think so”. Aiyar’s remarks and efforts to seek support from Pakistan to remove Modi created a furore. Though Congress dismissed the issue, the event left a trail of doubt. Since September Pakistan has been backing Rahul Gandhi for the prime ministerial post of India openly on twitter. A month of this campaign, BJP IT cell alleged that  Congress parties has launched a “Desh Bachao and Modi hatao” facebook ads campaign in Pakistan and soliciting Pakistan’s support.  Now Sidhu’s open admission suffice to say that Congress is seeking help of Pakistani establishment to topple Modi government. Congress party’s brazen politicking with enemy state known for its anti-India agenda casts serious doubts on its credentials and commitment towards nation’s interests. Before Congress’s intention be given a benefit of doubt, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s boastful statement “Imran Khan’s googly has forced the Indian government to send its ministers across the border” at Khan’s 100-day celebration into power surmises that Kartarpur corridor was a bait.

In 2010, Chairman of the Pakistan Evacuee Trust Property Board Chairman, Sayed Asif Hashmi offered to complete all modalities for construction of Kartarpur corridor but the Congress party which is in power didn’t respond. Even in May 2017, the parliamentary committee on external affairs ruled out any agreement on Kartarpur. But undeniably, this time around Pakistani leadership and military threw entire weight around the Kartarpur issue since engagement with India has become a “requirement”. They created buzz in the media with trusted emissaries and loyal propaganda machinery. India blissfully unaware of Pakistan’s treacherous plot had bit the bullet.

Pakistan is a habitual offender and India must be extremely cautious in handling this entire issue. People to people interaction and exchange is going on for several years through the Lahore bus services and special permits to PoK. With opening of Kartarpur corridor Punjab will be perilously close to becoming a strategically vulnerable region. Pakistan’s posturing and real intentions are crystal clear. By allowing visa-free access of Indian citizens to Kartarpur Gurudwara, Pakistan is eyeing the possibility of resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue with India and burnish its image as a “responsible country”.

The proposal for construction and developing Kartarpur corridor is truly an event of celebration given it religious significance to Sikh community and the landmark decision must be hailed. But Pakistan which is known for its vicious hatred towards India is leveraging this emotive issue to signal dawn of “thaw in relations” to global community. For decades, ISI has been supporting, funding and assisting the Khalistani movement to wean Sikh community from India. While the phenomenal sacrifices of Sikhs and their valiant contributions towards India’s development, progress and nation building remain unparalleled, Pakistan is trying to stoke secessionist tendencies. Indeed, Pakistan makes no bones about its intention of reviving Sikh militancy. ISI which manages the Sikh shrines is innocuously turning these places into active grounds for Khalistani propaganda.

Modi government’s is facing ire of strategists for sacrificing the strategic security in lieu of electoral gains. Pakistan for all its grand standing of rapprochement with India through religious diplomacy high on perception, is exceedingly short of action. There is not even a shred of evidence to show any change in its policy towards India. It continues to be a safe haven of terror elements. It hasn’t abandoned proxy war, the intrinsic component of its strategic doctrine. On the 10^th anniversary of 26/11 Pakistan proudly announced its role in bloody massacre. Govt officials shared stage with terrorists. Pakistan hasn’t brought terror masterminds to justice. There is no evidence of any change in Pakistan’s discourse towards India to bring about transformation in its relations. Essentially it turns out that Karatpur corridor is yet another contraption in the treacherous plan of bleeding India by thousand cuts. After reckless unleashing of its strategic assets, militant outfits, Pakistan is now resorting to this seemingly innocuous religious diplomacy. Husain Haqqani former Pakistani ambassador to US postulated that ideological pillars of Pakistan are Islamism and anti-Indianism. While liberal brigade might continue to expound the potential of religious diplomacy pragmatism dictates caution.

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Has India Inadvertently walked into Pakistan's emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-I

Pakistan’s renewed pitch and new-found enthusiasm for religious diplomacy with India found a new voice on the eve of Imran Khan’s swearing in ceremony. Islamabad found suitable emissary for their religious diplomacy in Navjot Singh Sidhu who attended oath-taking ceremony of Khan. Exuberant Sidhu who began singing paeans of his Pakistani friends after his return disclosed to media about Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa’s intention to open Dera Baba Nanak (Kartarpur) corridor for the 550^th Guru Nanak’s birth anniversary. Kartarpur Sahib, one of the most sacred places for Sikhs in Narowal Pakistan is 4 km from the International Border. Till now Indian Sikhs had to be contended at the mere glance of the revered place through a high-powered telescope on the Indo-Pakistan border. Atal Bihari Vajpayee who carried a message of peace on his Lahore bus ride to Pakistan in 1999 first proposed this idea of opening the Kartarpur corridor. In 2000, Pakistan agreed to allow Sikh pilgrims a visa-free visit to the shrine by constructing a bridge to connect the Indian side to the Gurudwara. Since then both countries never had any agreement in principle. 

After eighteen long years, Pakistan began to make overtures to India through the garrulous Congress leader Sidhu who overnight became the messiah of bilateral peace initiatives. Islamabad’s ploy of exploiting the sensitive cultural and religious sentiments of Indians and more specifically Sikhs made Indian strategists circumspect of Pakistan’s intentions. Neck deep in economic crisis, facing international alienation and grey-listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) for failing to implement money laundering legislations, Pakistan is seeking a truce with India. More than three months into power, Imran Khan has been desperately trying to keep Pakistani economy sinking under the burden of bad debts, depleting forex reserves and falling rupee. After swearing in as Prime Minister Khan travelled to Saudi Arabia twice seeking funds. Amidst string of cancellations by high-profile industrialists and heads of state to the “Future Investment Initiative”, touted as “Davos of the Desert” held in the aftermath of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal death, hard-pressed for finances, Khan attended the meet. Soon he embarked on a five-day foreign visit to China for financial assistance. Khan was denied funds but both countries signed slew of agreements to strengthen solidarity and friendship. Similarly, Pakistan reached out to UAE which offered some help. In the meanwhile, the visiting FATF delegation not satisfied with Pakistan’s efforts to curb terror recommended its inclusion in the grey list.  In September acceding to Pakistan’s request India initially agreed for a dialogue between Foreign Ministers along the sidelines of UNGA meetings. Within 24 hours India cancelled the proposed meet after Pakistan released a postal stamp to honour terrorist Burhan Wani and brutal killing of security personnel patrolling on the Indian side. Pakistan cried foul and Khan tweeted, “disappointed at the arrogant and negative response by India to my call for resumption of the peace dialogue. However, in all my life I have come across small men occupying big offices who don’t have the vision to see the larger picture” in an ominous reference to Prime Modi. All these incidents reiterate that Pakistan is desperately trying all tricks in its book to bring the country from isolation and economic distress.

Not just India even US vexed up by Pakistan’s inaction and double game US threatened to block financial assistance. The relations were severely strained. Just before Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pakistan, as if to assure its commitment towards fighting terror elements in Afghanistan, Islamabad announced death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. Over decades, Pakistan has mastered subterfuge and trickery. Now its cursory measures towards curbing terror measures are not taken in good stride. Despite serious differences with US, Pakistan is trying to woo the US since its nod is mandatory to avail IMF assistance. Pakistan for the 12^th time has approached IMF for financial bailout package to keep its economy afloat.  A fortnight ago, severely miffed President Trump said, “Pakistan didn’t do a damn thing for us”. As per PTI reports, it is now learnt that US has suspended $3 billion financial assistance to Pakistan this year. Pakistan’s global reputation is plummeting. Islamabad is making desperate attempts to resurrect its international image. At this juncture, Indian government sent a request for construction Kartarpur Corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in Gurdaspur district to Gurudwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur on banks of river Ravi to Pakistan.  It stated, “The Kartarpur Corridor will be implemented as an integrated development project with government of India funding, to provide smooth and easy passage, with all the modern amenities. Government of India will put in place suitable facilities for smooth passage of pilgrims. Government of Pakistan will be urged to recognise the sentiments of Sikh communities to develop a corridor with suitable facilities in their territory as well”. Pakistan immediately approved India’s request.

For decades, Sikhs have been demanding the construction of Kartarpur corridor and a nod from both governments was hailed by international community. Along with its request to the Pakistan government India conveyed its apprehensions, “despite the harassment that pilgrims face on the Pakistani side, with the Khalistani posters or through the lack of access to consular officials, Sikh pilgrims continue to make this difficult journey. Our proposal is so that the burden of pilgrims can be eased significantly”. This statement underscores India’s scepticism towards Pakistan. But went ahead with this decision to honour the sentiments of Sikhs.

Government’s “landmark” decision evoked flurry of responses. Alyssa Ayres termed “this move will generate good will and help keep bilateral relations steady”. Sreemoy Talukdar of First Post, wrote, “it would be a shame if domestic political considerations lead to strategic vulnerability”. With elections around the corner, it would be anybody’s guess that ruling party would easily succumb to such pressure. But aside these political considerations, it a fact that despite being labelled as “nationalist party”, BJP at the helm of the affairs have displayed extraordinary will and zeal to build bridges of friendship with Pakistan. In his article, “A bridge too long” for TOI, former ambassador Vivek Katju recalled the enthusiasm of Atal Bihari Vajpayee who travelled to Lahore on bus with a message of peace and proposal to open the Kartarpur corridor. But within months, Pakistan reciprocated India’s friendly gesture with a perfidious Kargil war. After twenty years, Prime Minister Modi reposed similar hope and invoked fall of Berlin wall to reiterate the transformative nature of his government’s decision on Kartarpur. But the moot point remains is Pakistan worthy of India’s generosity? Going by Pakistan’s record of perfidy, duplicity, subterfuge and lies during the past seven decades, government’s overdrive appears to be misplaced and ill conceived.

The massive decision on Kartarpur has come on a day when India protested Pakistan government for preventing entry of Indian diplomats into the Nankana Sahib Gurudwara and Dera Sacha Sauda. Also, when Punjab police investigation have confirmed Pakistani links of the suspects involved in the grenade attacks on the Nirankari Ashram near Amritsar that killed three persons and left 20 injured. Pakistan’s relentless attacks amidst India’s inability to fathom its treachery is forcing people to question frailty of government in repeating endless mistakes of history? Pakistan has penchant for inciting communal disharmony and stoking secessionist passions. Even its role in revival of the Khalistani movement is incontrovertibly established. Hence government’s misplaced judgement of Kartarpur corridor adding a modicum of stability seemed fallacious.

Above all, the inexpiable insensitivity of holding the ground-breaking ceremony corridor on the Indian side at Dera Baba Nanak, Gurdaspur on 26^th November by Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu and Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh has added dubious dimensions to the whole exercise. Even after 10 years of the most brutal 26/11 terror attacks while victims still await justice, Indian government thanked the Pakistan side for accepting India’s proposal, who perpetrated the crime. The grievous oversight of policy makers and blindsided approach towards symbolisms reflected the indifference of the current regime. Modi regime has by and large added a fresh dynamism and momentum to Indian foreign policy. But its policy towards Pakistan characterised by flip-flops, somersaults and inconsistencies has given Islamabad enough room to outmanoeuvre Indian strategies.

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Attack on Chinese Consulate at Karachi raises fresh doubts China’s strategic investments

Rapid political developments and swift changes of regimes in Asian countries so far have highlighted the vagaries of the Chinese investments. Notwithstanding burgeoning global concerns Beijing has been assiduously expanding its global foot print. At a time when Maldivian new foreign minister is expected to travel to Beijing to take a stock of Chinese investments in the Archipelago, reports of attacks of Chinese consulate in posh South Karachi generated a new buzz. The timely intervention of Pakistan security forces thwarted attempts of the militants to enter the consulate. In the cross fire that lasted for an hour, seven people including the three-armed militants lost their lives. Sindh Police successfully rescued all the 21 in the consulate and shifted them to save place.

Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) soon claimed responsibility for the attacks. Pakistan launched military operation against Baloch insurgents which led to death of separatist leader Nawab Akbar Bhugti in 2005. Soon various separatist groups regrouped and intensified armed struggle against Pakistani establishment since 2006. Baluchistan, the resource-rich south west province of Pakistan is gateway to the Gwadar deep port, the jewel in the crown on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China and Pakistan signed $50 billion CPEC touted as corner stone of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) in 2014. Within few years, both countries ambitiously revised the CPEC and the worth of projects under the ambit of CPEC currently is $62 billion. The pivotal objective of CPEC has been developing an unparalleled connectivity between the restive Xinjiang province of China and the Gwadar port which opens into Arabian Sea.  Accordingly, CPEC included- a slew of infrastructure development projects- motorways, roadways, railways, oil pipelines, hydroelectric projects, cyber connectivity. To initiate dozens of projects, a vast majority of Chinese companies working for CPEC began to descend on Pakistan. Unlike other countries, China employs its own citizens for projects.

Baluchistan province which is the hub of CPEC became preferred home for thousands of Chinese workers engaged in the construction projects. Steady infiltration of Chinese into Baloch province exacerbated the angst of Balochis who have been fighting the surreptitious invasion of Pakistan in 1948. Baluchistan the largest and least populated province of Pakistan despite its rich mineral deposits is the least under-developed province. Unlike the richer Punjab province in its immediate neighbourhood, nearly 45% of Balochis lived in absolute poverty. Balochis felt exploited.  After the ratification of CPEC project, Pakistani establishment apprised Balochis of its crucial role in poverty alleviation of the region. But China imported men and material vanquishing all hopes of any economic gains to the local economy. Young Balochis were even denied of gainful employment. With the province slowly infiltrated by Chinese men, Baloch feared that they might soon become a minority in the province. As per conservative estimates around 30,000 Chinese people are believed to be living in Baluchistan reiterating their fears of turning into a colony. They began vehemently opposing Chinese investments and escalated liberation struggle.

Earlier in August Baloch separatist forces attacked a bus carrying Chinese engineers in the Baluchistan province. Since 2014 at least 44 Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan working for the CPEC. Two Chinese tutors were kidnapped and killed by Pakistani IS. For decades, Baloch separatist forces have been carrying out armed struggle against Pakistan forces for unfairly exploiting the resources of the province. The region has been a tinderbox. To ensure completion of CPEC, Pakistan has raised a 15,000 strong force to protect Chinese investments. Decades of oppression, forcible Islamisation of the secular province, attempts to annihilate the ethnic identities have exacerbated the worst fears of Balochis.

Given the opaque nature of Chinese negotiations the larger perspective and strategic objectives of Beijing to be pursued under CPEC have by and large remained a closely guarded secret. As per Pakistani media reports of 2017, Top International Engineering Corporation (TIEC) under the first phase of the CPEC project announced plans to build houses for 500,000 Chinese professionals in Baluchistan by 2023. The Mega Chinese community centre in Gwadar called China Pak Hills was earlier known as International Port City with the Gwadar Development Authority.

Lawrence Sollins, a retired Colonel of US Army Reserve through a series of articles uncovered the details of the CPEC, which he calls it as China Pakistan Military Corridor. Terming the economic cooperation is just a façade, the key aspect of CPEC is hard power cooperation. Under the flagship of BRI, through CPEC, China aims to expand connectivity to Central, South and West Asia. It intends to dominate and control the Persian Gulf, sea lines of communication and choke points of Indian Ocean. In the process Beijing intends to monitor activities of US in the Persian Gulf and outflank the US naval base of Diego Garcia. China’s quest for gaining access to Arabian Sea began in 2001 with the signing of an agreement for development of Gwadar port, 180 nautical miles from Strait of Hormuz. Construction began in 2002 and the port became operational by 2008. By 2013 China obtained operational rights of Gwadar port.

Simultaneously, in 2008 Pakistan Navy acquired 2500 acres of land in Gwadar district for implementation of new security arrangement for Pakistan’s coast called the Regional Maritime Security Patrol. Subsequently Pakistan Navy intensified efforts to acquire land along the Gwadar coast line. It raised Coastal Security and Harbour Defence Force with surveillance equipment stationed at the Jiwani port and prepared enough ground for developing a satellite of naval bases (Pasni, Ormara) along the Makran coast line. With the launch of CPEC all these military operations are projected as economic activities aimed to give a massive fillip to the socio-economic development of Baluchistan. Under the banner of CPEC, Pakistan military relentlessly carried out the task of acquiring several thousands of acres of land as part of Gwadar Development Agency to be handed over to China for further development. Hundred miles from Gwadar, Pakistan opened new naval base Turbat. In February when talks of China acquiring port Jiwani for military purpose gained traction, a Chinese submarine visited the region.

In April 2017, Pakistan signed an agreement handing over the operations of Gwadar port for 40 years to Chinese Overseas port Holding company. Islamabad announced commencement of joint Sino-Pakistan patrols in Indian Ocean. By December both countries agreed to set up weapons testing range at Sonmiani, seat of Pakistani Space research  in Baluchistan province. According to some reports, China is planning to build a long tunnel at Sonmiani similar to one at Yulin province for storage and maintenance of nuclear subs for ease of access to the Arabian Sea. Countries have launched plans to develop island of Astola located between naval bases Ormara and Pasni and adjacent to vital sea lines. Exploiting the geographical and strategic significance of Baluchistan province, China made the region the corner stone of its ties bolstering its global ambitions all under the seemingly innocuous soft diplomacy.

Considering the depth of the burgeoning Sino-Pakistan military cooperation under the ruse of CPEC, despite the attacks on Chinese consulate, both sides agreed that they should be vigilant against those forces which attempt to drive a wedge in Beijing-Islamabad cooperation. Imran Khan said, “The attack was intended to scare Chinese investors and undermine CPEC”.

Given the scale of extensive build-up of military infrastructure in the region, separatist elements who realised the vacuity of socio-economic development progress in the region, miffed by Pakistan falsities began targeting Chinese investments. The latest attack on the consulate is indeed an attempt to draw international attention towards dubious concept of Win-win scenario of BRI. A video footage released by the BLA subsequently unequivocally refers to the exploitative nature of Chinese investments. Unlike other attacks in Pakistan, this was devoid of Islamist elements and the perpetrators voiced out their concerns regarding CPEC in English.

Countries with working democracies have overwhelmingly turned down Chinese investments through popular verdict where people voted pro-China leaders in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives out of power. But in a name-sake democracy like Pakistan, affected groups are now expressing their strongest disapproval by attacking Chinese consulates/ properties and Chinese citizens. This is not just one of the incidents, in 2016, Chinese consulate was attacked at Bishkek by the disgruntled elements.

Countries are now calling the bluff of China’s newest form of imperialism. Increasingly smaller countries are approaching IMF with debt issues. Even IMF beset with debt troubles of Pakistan, Angola and Zambia is growing wary of Chinese investments. As of 2014 around 1/6^th of small nations are mired in debts presently 45% of low-income countries are engulfed by this crisis. Most of these countries are part of the China’s flagship BRI. The report even indicates that China has chosen 78% of countries labelled as Ba2 category of non-investment or junk level as participants of BRI. Together these developments are raising serious concerns about China’s serious lack of due diligence. Djibouti, Zambia and Kenya are now at the verge of ceding ports, energy installations and broadcasting corporations to China as part of debt servicing plans.

China’s envisioned model of global financing for infrastructure development exposed the glaring connectivity deficit in the emerging nations and sheer magnitude of funding shortage. In absence of reliable financial institutions, countries keen on lifting the nations from economic throes are becoming victims of Chinese generosity which comes with strings. This scenario presents an excellent opportunity for nations or a consortium of nations willing to assist, finance and share technological know-how to developing/third world countries in building extensive connectivity networks. China’s tall claims of reshaping the global trade, financial, infrastructure, investment through flagship connectivity projects as of now failed to live up to its expectations. Touted as Marshall Plan equivalent, China’s ambitious initiatives are proving to be much riskier and less reliable.

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India making up for lost ground in Maldives

The political turmoil in Maldives which has been brewing since February came to an end after the Presidential elections in September. But even after Mohammed Solih’s surprise victory in the elections, the situation in Maldives remained turbulent as President Yameen refused to concede defeat claiming rigged elections. After congratulatory messages began to pour in for Solih and under international duress perhaps, Yameen reluctantly agreed to step down. Since September people who closely follow Maldives believed that Yameen may not give-up power rather easily. But despite some anxious moments, Solih has sworn in as seventh president of Maldives on November 17^th in an event attended by representatives from 46 countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was invited to the swearing in ceremony accepted the invitation and attended the event. His presence not only reinforced India’s interest in resetting ties with Maldives but also ensured smooth transition of power.

Lying along Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) in the Indian Ocean, 500 nautical miles from shores of India, a stable Maldives is extremely pivotal for India’s security. China having adopted aggressive power projection mode aside asserting dominance in the South China Sea (SCS) region turned its attention to Indian Ocean. Dragon ventured into the region under the guise of participating in anti-piracy operations gave wings to its encirclement policy of India. China’s economic development is dependent on the energy imports from the middle east and for its safe and unrestricted passage through the seas, it unveiled “String of Pearls”. Accordingly, it started establishing naval bases closer to the SLOCs and choke points. In the process, it fostered close economic and trade links with India’s immediate neighbours in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Maldives comprising a chain of 26 atolls and spread in the expanse of the Indian Ocean and located in Arabian Sea garnered Chinese attention. In 2011 during President Nasheed’s regime China established embassy in Male ever since Chinese investments through infrastructure projects began to flood the island.  Bilateral ties rapidly gained momentum under President Yameen who came to power in 2013. The engagement reached such dizzying heights that Yameen cancelled Male airport expansion project allotted to Indian conglomerate GMR and awarded it to a Chinese company, Beijing Urban Construction Group Company. To curry favour China, Yameen promulgated constitutional amendment to allow foreigners with investment of more than $1 billion to own land in Maldives. Upon completion of the project at least 70% of the land must be reclaimed from ocean. Known for its reclamation prowess, China was tipped to be a major beneficiary.

In a span of five years, China initiated dozens of infrastructure projects and became leading investment partner of Maldives. Despite domestic opposition, Yameen leased Feydhoo Finolhu an uninhabited island close to Male airport for 50 years at a throw away price of $ 4 million. He signed both OBOR (One Belt one Road) and AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). The sheer number of the projects and absence of transparency in Chinese projects awarded without open bidding at inflated prices raised fears of massive corruption. Maldivians worse fears came true when days before his swearing ceremony Solih met Chinese ambassador who apprised him of outstanding debt to China as $3 billion (twice the Maldives yearly revenues) against official estimate of $1.5 billion. Staggering debt amounts has skewed the precarious debt-revenue balance tourism dependent Maldivian economy. Maldives is joined the club of countries ensnared by debt-trap diplomacy of China. Panic signals in Maldives conforms to the fact that China’s touted as “win-win” development is a big hog-wash. Viewed through a geopolitical prism, crisis in Maldives was thus far dubbed as fall out of great power rivalry between India and China. But now it turns out that China’s debt trap diplomacy has been instrumental in pushing the island to an edge. Under the pretext of guarding its investments China is interfering in political, economic affairs of independent countries paving way for “neo imperialism”.

Chinese interference into affairs of its partner nations has become so prominent that its investments have been major electoral issue in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives. Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammed who swept polls in Malaysia aside initiating corruption probe against the pliant ousted leader Najib Razak has even cancelled infrastructure projects worth $22.5 billion, Pakistan revised $62 billion worth CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), Myanmar scaled back the Kyuakphu port development project to $1.3 billion from $ 9 billion and several African countries are mulling cancellation of Chinese investments to avoid debt trap. With a seemingly pro-India regime in charge in Maldives, India is believed to have checkmated the dubious agenda of China. Maldives perilous economic situation vindicates India’s reservations towards BRI. Despite unprecedented Chinese efforts to have India on board in its infrastructure initiative BRI (Belt Road Initiative), New Delhi refused to fall for China’s charm offensive and held its ground. Reinstatement of Solih government is thus a of double delight for India as it busted the China’s “win-win” proclamation regarding BRI.

To turn the uninhabited islands into tourist destinations, Yameen leased them out to private companies against government laws. Chinese companies leased over seven islands through closed bidding. To have its way in Maldives, China supported Yameen’s authoritarian regime. When political crisis erupted following the proroguing of Parliament in Maldives, several countries called for restoration of democracy in the island. But China despite stating non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries rushed a fleet of 11 frigates towards Indian Ocean signalling its support to despotic Yameen regime. December last year, Yameen has rushed the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China even as opposition staged a boycott questioning the fast-tracking of the process without legitimate scrutiny. This raised serious doubts about Yameen’s intentions who in 2014 had diverted tens of millions of tourism revenue to his personal accounts. Three months later it emerged that Yameen obtained the approval of Parliament for the Protocol for Establishment of Joint Ocean Observation Station between Maldives and China during the ratification of FTA. As per the agreement China can establish an observatory on Makunudhoo atoll along the one the most important shipping route in Indian Ocean which is close to Indian waters. This intensified India’s fears of China’s strategic plans of establishing a permanent military base in its backyard.  Maldivian saga has even exposed China’s grave disregard for democracy, human rights violation, rule of law and its callous indifference in carrying out business with despotic leaders.

Maldives has always advocated India First Policy. But Yameen singularly drifted the island nation into Chinese orbit. He even steered country away from cosmopolitan disposition towards dogmatic Islam ideology. In the past five years, the archipelago has turned into a hot bed for radical extremism with Yameen deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Giving massive fillip to strained Indo-Maldivian relations under Yameen. Ending Maldivian isolation under previous regime, India convinced IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) members to admit Maldives into the club. On November 2^nd Maldives officially became member of IORA. At a time when strategists were writing down Modi’s “Neighbourhood First Policy”, with his extensive outreach to Maldives, he silenced critics as of now. Four and half years into his term, Maldives is the only country Modi hasn’t visited in the immediate neighbourhood. In a bid to make up for the lost ground in Maldives under Yameen, before departing for oath-taking ceremony, in a facebook post Modi wrote “I will convey to the new Maldivian government …. The desire of my government to work closely for realisation of developmental priorities, especially in the areas of infrastructure, health care, connectivity and human resource development”. 

Modi was the only highest ranked official to attend the inauguration ceremony. Both leaders held bilateral talks after the ceremony and released a joint statement. It states, “During the meeting, both leaders agreed on the importance of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean and being mindful of each other’s concerns and aspirations for the stability of the region”. They expressed immense confidence in “renewal of close bonds of friendship and cooperation”. India has been traditional partner and security provider in the Indian Ocean region and maintains close relations with its neighbours. But Yameen’s embrace of China has created rifts in the historic relationship. Solih promised an “India First Policy” for Maldives and a day after Modi’s return, Maldives indicated that it would keep helicopters gifted by India. In June Yameen has issued notice to India to remove the helicopters and even refused to renew visas of Indian Navy personnel stationed in Maldives for the maintenance of the choppers. Infusing fresh energy in bilateral ties Modi assured Solih of “India’s firm commitment in assisting the Maldives to achieve sustainable social and economic development”. Solih sought help from India and US to pull out economy from a mountain of debt and in tracking billions of Rufiyaa missing from the state coffers due to corruption and embezzlement.

Though Solih avoided making any mention of China and debt trap in his inaugural address, critics in Maldives minced no words that China led investment project boom has plunged country in debts. They expressed concerns over the lopsided trade under FTA with China. While Maldives imported goods worth $342 million, exports to China between January to August accounted for mere $265,270. Former President Nasheed currently the adviser of Maldives Democratic Party termed the FTA as “one-sided treaty”. Soon a senior law maker announced that Maldives will pull out of FTA. While China expressed faith that Maldives will make “right choice” on FTA, the ongoing China’s trade war with US and American allegations of China’s corrupt practices now stand vindicated. Maldives announcement comes a day after China was snubbed by Nauru and earlier by Papua New Guinea.  In a marked drift from the China’s orbit Maldives is all set to re-join Common Wealth Group.

India has to be very cautious of China’s fierce geostrategic ambitions and its justification of encroaching territories in India’s maritime vicinity. Having imbibed the strategies of European colonists, China is using similar nefarious tactics of bribing and rescuing pliant leaders from international scrutiny and sanctions. Dismantling of democracy and chaos in Sri Lanka serve as a classic example to China’s debt imperialism. Unfortunately, despite the fears of entrapment, Maldives can’t risk cancelling Chinese investments. But India can earn the trust and faith of neighbours through a benign rise and by acting promptly on its promises.

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