West’s inability to rein in on the Dragon it propped

Unremitting Doklam stand-off besides, escalating tensions, has offered a unique opportunity to unravel the intentions of China. India’s strategic defiance amidst ratcheted Chinese diplomatic rhetoric has taken the World by a surprise. Despite Chinese media warning of “the window for peace is closing for India” India has firmly dug its heels, refused conditional withdrawal of troops, and pressed for diplomatic negotiations. Beijing’s aggressive posturing and war-mongering decimated international perceptions of “peaceful rise”.

The exalted show of strength highlighting strategic assets at military base, Zhurihe in Inner Mongolia commemorating 90^th anniversary of PLA and subsequent strident call by President Xi to stand “up to all enemies who offend China” reinforced Beijing’s apoplectic stance. Though some Chinese officials have privately confided that “China has erred, with the leadership misled to believe that India will silently accept Chinese road building in Doklam”, media’s exaggerated narrative has complicated things for Chinese military. India in unequivocal terms ruled out pulling of troops and called for maintenance of status quo the region. China is now stuck in a limbo as any de-escalation will be a loss of face. China’s intransigent approach towards Doklam standoff is just a top of iceberg of its burgeoning hegemony. Unabated Chinese adventurism is now reaching unprecedented levels. As of today, none can predict how matters will turn out. But India’s approach whilst China’s high-decibel rhetoric is highly commended and senior US diplomat applauded India’s “mature approach”.

On the other hand, China’s high-handedness has now come under intense scrutiny.  Emboldened by ineptness of the West, China is roiling the security of the region with its unending spree of historical territorial claims. Giving wings to its geopolitical ambitions, China instituted several think-tanks to dig vast Chinese history to find legitimacy to its fictitious claims. The nocuous nine-dashed line, which was unheard of prior to inception of Communist regime is now threatening the stability of the region. Fictitious territorial claims have turned into iniquitous tools for asserting hegemony for China.

Philippines irked by China’s assertions over the Scarborough Island dragged it to international court. But Beijing refused to accept the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) verdict that quashed Chinese claims over the geographical features in SCS. The West’s muted response to China’s defiance towards international rules and its relentless island building spree in SCS is now becoming a matter of serious concern. Besides, the enviable three decadal two-digit economic growth, West’s unwillingness to contest China’s excesses have given it a pretext to exercise its hegemony in the region. Consequently, China is now incrementally expanding its sphere of influence. Slowly China began to assert its control over strategically important regions. China which entered the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to join anti-piracy operations continued to remain the region long after pirate threat has subsided and smartly created “String of Pearls”. In 2012, it created Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the east China sea and by fag end of President Obama’s tenure began sending vessels closer to Alaska. While it strongly objects to Freedom of Navigation and joint exploration of oil in SCS. In absence of a power to call its bluff, China continued to strengthen its hold in the region.

Simultaneously Beijing powered its hegemonic aspirations through the One Belt One Road (OBOR) roping in 28 countries. The transmuted OBOR, a global connectivity initiative turned out to be a “debt trap diplomacy” began inflicting irrevocable financial damages to countries. The OBOR projects in many countries were meted with massive public protests for the grave environmental violations. China, deliberately invested in countries with authoritarian or dictatorial regimes and unstable economies, regardless of economic viability of the projects, plunging the host nations into a debt trap. But the west chose to largely overlook the pattern and motives behind Beijing’s investments. Instead sent official delegations to BRI (Belt Road Initiative) summit, as an endorsement of its strategic initiatives.

Also, the West which earned reputation of defender of democratic values remained callous towards China’s abominable disregard towards international rules, human rights, freedom of press, internet censoring and curbs, intolerance towards domestic dissidence, excesses in Tibetan region and high-handed suppression of Uighar’s freedom of religion. West’s silence strengthened Chinese resolve to intimidate and bully smaller nations. China began forcibly compelling nations to fall in line. Beijing punished Mongolia for hosting Dalai Lama by wielding economic leverage. It suspended talks on a major loan and brought the nation to feet by imposing high border fees on trucks entering China. Similarly, it rattled South Korea over THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) deployment by imposing unofficial trade sanctions and curtailing tourism.  China considered THAAD deployment and Dalai Lama’s international standing inimical to its security and authority. Unfortunately, despite China needling Japan and South Korea, America refused to come down heavily. China’s unabashed temerity to threaten or bully countries remained unchallenged.

In the span of past three months, besides aggressively penetrating the Doklam trijunction infringing mutual agreements, China has threatened Vietnam, forcing it to stop oil exploration at the edge of its exclusive economic zone in SCS, conducted joint military exercises with Russia in Baltic sea to send a message to NATO countries. Chinese spy ship operated in Australian exclusive economic zone when the later was holding military exercises with US and Japan. It flew fighter jets over Taiwan and Okinawa island of Japan. Through outlandish display of military, air force and naval clout, China is attempting to showcase global power shift.

China is slowly excelling the art of taming the west. Having emerged as global manufacturing hub, China has cultivated trade relations with far and distant lands. Soon it emerged as major trading partner for many countries. Under the guise of connectivity, China has developed extensive economic relations Beijing penetrated Eurasian region. Beijing heavily invested in European countries which were reeling under economic crisis after the 2008 recession. It gradually widened scope of cooperation to sectors like space technology, infrastructure development, building of nuclear reactors and became vital economic partner. The growing economic clout of China effectively guarded it from being sanctioned for any violations of human rights or media censoring. Except Germany none of the European countries condemned China’s illegal detention of Nobel Laureate Liu Xiaobo who succumbed to cancer. While Germany, France and Italy expressed concerns over increasing non-EU investments in Europe without naming China, Germany alone tightened regulations to reduce Chinese acquisitions in Germany.  

For long China remained isolated. China being a communist country, America perceived it be expansionist and stayed away. Instead it wanted to create a rift between the two large communist nations China and Russia. After the eventual split between China and Russia, America moved closer to China. Pakistan who was an ally of America, honestly brokered Sino-US relations. Marking a new beginning to friendly ties both countries signed Shanghai Communique in 1972 and established diplomatic relations in 1979. This coincided with China’s “reform and opening” policy. With America suffering from stagnant economy and inflation and China struggling to uplift a sinking economy, both countries turned to each other for reviving their economies. This marked “co-dependency” instantly kick started the Chinese economy which soon began to supply cheap goods to American consumers. American consumerism has steered Chinese economy. Soon major Western and American companies shifted base to China because of low production costs. Having established formidable global credentials as rising economy, China became lucrative destination for new technologies. China even anchored American economy which suffers from poor domestic saving through Treasury bonds. Of late, China is coercing American MNCs to transfer technology, though it is not mandatory under WTO. Disregarding commitment towards protection of intellectual property rights, China is now promoting indigenous innovation through imported technologies. Aside, dubious currency manipulation, China with renewed efforts on techno-nationalism is aiming to replace America as leading economy. America was thus, instrumental for China’s meteoric economic rise. Economic stability reinvigorated Chinese global aspirations.

Intriguingly, America had no qualms in embracing a Communist China while it strongly detested Russia stems for being a communist nation. American hostility towards Communist Russia stems from its perception of Moscow as an aggressive, expansionist power. Then, how could America fail to fathom the dubious aspirations of a Communist China? Now, America hesitates to impose trade sanctions on China for the fear of dumping Treasury bonds. Apparently, America is now finding it difficult to tame China, that keeps tight leash on two rogue nations- Pakistan and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). While America can afford to be indifferent to Chinese aggression towards India, America is hard pressed to take a position on China’s role in containing DPRK. DPRK’s calumnious posturing and threats of destroying America is now keeping Washington on tenterhooks. By transferring missile technology to DPRK and nuclear technology to Pakistan, China has unleashed two dangerously armed rogue nations on the World. American having stationed its forces in Afghanistan for past 17 years and spent trillions of dollars is grappling hard to find a logical solution. US allied and funded Pakistan to resolve Afghan crisis but to no avail. Pakistan buttressed by its all-weather friend China is reluctant to cooperate with America. Over years, the West turned a blind eye towards China’s inimical strategic cultivation of two rogue countries. Now, dangerous showdown is brewing, but America is staggeringly powerless.

Despite the full blown psychological war, India called Chinese’s bluff, it is appalling that West has failed to do so….

@ Copyrights reserved.

India @ 70 : Land of Contradictions

Seventy years is a good amount of time. Completion of seventy years of existence as an independent country with 1.25 billion population and spectacular diversity is an occasion of celebration and introspection as well. India the largest democracy, cradle of World’s oldest civilizations is a young country. Thousands of freedom fighters through their selfless sacrifice drove away the oppressive forces culminating in liberation of India from the colonial shackles. The British having sapped India’s vital resources and emptied its treasury left the country to fend for itself anticipating that country will soon crumble under the burden of disunity. Putting rest to Winston Churchill’s prophesies and ignominious references “Power will go to rascals, rogues and freebooters. All leaders will be low caliber and men of straw. They’ll have sweet tongues and silly hearts. They will fight amongst themselves for power and the countries will be lost in squabbles. A day will come when even air and water will be taxed”, India at 70 is alive, kicking epitomizing democracy and pluralism. Unfortunately, bloodied partition was inflicted upon India even before it could experience the joy of painstakingly earned freedom. Independent India despite facing numerous internal and external threats endured and bravely defended sovereignty. Though there have been strains in the democracy at various stages like the dark phases of Emergency, India bounced back after every fall. 

Independent India’s journey so far has been a roller coaster ride swinging earnestly through periods of despair and hope. The aspects of exulted success have been overshadowed by tumultuous failures. As India asserted its new position as emerging space giant with a successful spree of satellite launches and phenomenal maiden Mars Mission, the technological ineptness of DRDO which failed to develop an indigenous assault rifle created doubts about India’s scientific mettle. India’s potential as fastest growing economy in the world has turned it into a lucrative investment hub but India’s contemptible ease of doing business lead to low rate of project realization. Low-cost technologies are making India medical tourism hub even as shoddy maintenance and administration of government hospitals is claiming lives of millions. As per IMF estimates for year 2017, India has third largest GDP based on purchasing power parity but it continues to slide down the rankings of Human Development Index, reflecting the glaring increase in inequalities. Similarly, India’s low Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) which declined marginally in recent years and the low sex ratio are a mockery to India’s standing among community of nations.

The unique recognition scrupulously earned by budding young Indian scientists of Team Indus made India incredibly proud. It is one among the five teams qualified to compete in $30 billion Google-sponsored competition to operate robotic spacecraft on Moon by 2018. Discovery of massive galaxy super cluster “Saraswati”, 600 million lightyears away by team of astrophysicists from Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics and Indian Institute of Science and Education Research (IISER) has been source of immense pride and joy. On the contrary, Indian Universities slipping in the latest QS World university rankings raised concerns about the standards of Indian education. Contrasting pictures of hope and frustration continue to haunt Indian scenario. The reports of low employability pale the prospective advantage of India’s rich demographic dividend. At the same time, a boom in start-up culture spear-headed by young, enthusiastic, and dynamic youngsters has instilled new hope about the new generation. Interestingly while a surge in the new breed of entrepreneurs is imparting new energy into system, rampant corruption perpetrated by the veritable politician-bureaucrat-police is crippling progress of the country. The list of such contraries that evoke a sense of desperation and instilled hope are endless. These contrasting developments inadvertently divided Indians into eternal pragmatists and skeptics.

India successfully drove away colonial forces, but stigmatized Indian mind still longs for a western sanction and approval. Unlike countries who obtained independence around the same period, India hasn’t forsaken the colonial vestiges like bureaucracy and eerily adopted their institutional legacies. It never attempted to revamp the systems to cater to the needs and requirements of Indian society. Even after seven decades of independence we still religiously adopt the judicial laws, housing systems, health care and education introduced by the imperialists. The colonial hangover still has a larger overbearing on the Indian mind, thought and intellect. Moving forward, Indian mind slowly began to acknowledge anything foreign as superior and began importing defence technologies and advanced scientific expertise. Enslaved by colonial hangover, Indians are now seeking approval of the west to acknowledge the epics, precincts of vast Indian heritage. Any advocate/ believer of epics is labelled and chastised as a religious bigot. For decades, the west-influenced thought process dominated the Indian realm. But slowly an alternative narrative is emerging and trying to reclaim its space. Aside, jostling of contrasting thought processes, a silent group is toiling hard to assert Indian identities. A kind of commotion is silently brewing within the Indian society turning it into a breeding ground for contrarian views and perceptions. Sadly, the colonial hangover still besieges Indian academic institutes. It is appalling that sections of Indian society have no qualms in calling ‘India as land of degenerates’. For them, India is all about sati, untouchability, caste system. Such is the power of the colonial imprint, that thousands of educated Indian elite still tend to magnify the mildews of the past.

Currently Indian domain is witnessing new hope amidst apathy, gender discrimination, widening societal gaps and poor governance. Though things are under control, domestic front is heated up by movements for separate state, unrelenting insurgency and infiltration bids into Kashmir, states exploring legal options for separate flags, protests against imposition of Hindi, Maoist attacks and political killings. Even external threats are looming large with the possibility of a two and half war scenario. Millions are exasperated by years of neglect, lack of infrastructure and poor governance. But fortunately, the aspiring Indian class harbor beacon of hope. Unlike in the past, for a change, India’s top most hierarchical positions are occupied by people from modest origins with dynasticism forced to retreat. As of now, the voices of resilient Indians hopeful of India’s resurgence are steering it infusing renewed vigor, giving wings to its dreams.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Sino-Thai engagement culminating in construction of Asia’s Panama Canal

While China’s ominous investments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are grabbing headlines, China’s carrot and stick policy towards Thailand needs considerable attention. Yet another ASEAN conference successfully concluded last week at Manila and once again ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries failed to bring out anti-Beijing resolution. ASEAN’s meek response to hegemonic China despite Beijing’s unremitting belligerence in South China Sea (SCS) reflects the growing discord within the ASEAN economic grouping. ASEAN which was painstakingly built as bulwark against China, is now wilting under the torment of Chinese divisive tactics. Apparent fissures inflicted by Chinese coercive economic diplomacy and muscle power of Beijing has eroded the solidarity of ASEAN countries. Despite China’s penetrating aggression, being the single largest trading partner and largest investor in ASEAN countries, voices of protests within the group are seldom addressed. As of now, China’s relations with ASEAN countries is rather complex. Each country has a unique relation with China. Beijing managed wooed Cambodia and Laos with massive infrastructure investments. Besides trade and investments, Sino-Burma relations are leveraged by domestic insurgencies with Burmese militant groups having safe havens in Chinese territories.  High-income group countries Brunei and Singapore are slowly trying to reduce their dependence on China. Beijing’s relations with middle-income group countries -Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are steered by increased economic activity and infrastructure initiatives.

Thailand is the second-largest economy in ASEAN. But of late, it is registering low levels of GDP growth and has history of buckling under international financial crisis. Ever since Asian financial crisis of 1998-99, Thai economy failed to regain its original momentum. Exports slid perceptibly, manufacturing sector failed to bounce back. Thai economy is now thriving on resurgent tourism and services sectors. By perpetually adopting “bamboo bending with the wind” kind of diplomacy, Thailand uniquely maintained its sovereignty and independence during the colonial and cold war era. Since 1945 Thailand shifted its orientation towards US. Boisterous economic and strategic rise of China has posed Thailand with a challenge of choosing between Washington and Beijing. With US retreating from this part of the World and an assertive China looming large over the region, Thailand was prompted to make a choice. China and Thailand established diplomatic relations in 1975 which steadily expanded with time. Though Thai military juntas had strong ties with Washington, America’s receding presence in South East Asia prompted Thai establishment to shift allegiances. Moreover, unlike other countries in the region, Thailand had no territorial disputes with China and hence Thailand eagerly joined hands with China. Till 1999, American has been major weapons supplier for Thailand. Thai currency plummeted during financial crisis as American purchases became more expensive. Thailand began to look for other affordable options and eventually settled for Chinese supplies setting stage for enhanced military engagement. Both countries began joint military exercises in 2005 marking 30 years of diplomatic relations. Since 2006, balancing of relations between China and US became difficult for Thailand. By 2009, China replaced US as Thailand’s largest export market and soon Chinese FDI dominated established investors from US, Japan and Europe. Thailand also experienced a surge in Chinese tourists by 12%.

Thailand’s relations with US further weakened after the US refused to recognize and endorse the military government following a coup in 2014. While the west was highly critical of military junta, China endorsed the coup. Burdened by a stagnant economy, military generals offered several concessions to China. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha approved purchase of three submarines, 34 armored personnel carriers and 28 tanks worth $1billion from China (1). Gradually military cooperation has become corner stone of Sino-Thailand relations with Thailand’s boosted military spending after 2014 purchasing military hardware from China. In 2015, Thai and Chinese air forces conducted first joint exercises, and navies participated in joint drill “Blue Strike” in 2016. As US weaned away from Thailand to force military junta to reinstate democratic government, China reinvigorated its relations with Thailand. China eventually displaced Japan as Thailand’s largest investor in 2015. Cognizant of Thailand’s strategic location, which is dubbed as gateway to South east Asia, China vigorously rallied to boost its economic, trade, military with Thailand.

Thailand reciprocated China by repatriating Uighur militants and political dissidents in 2015. But China was irked by Thailand’s inordinate delay in approving the $5.5 billion high-speed rail project connecting China’s southern province of Kunming with Laos and Bangkok, a regional connectivity project under the BRI (Belt Road Initiative). Indicating its displeasure, China abstained from inviting Prime Minister Prayuth for the BRI summit at Beijing. Intimidated by diplomatic snub, Prayuth invoked the article 44, of Thai constitution, to circumvent the legislative body (parliament) and expedited the project. Through its “shame offensive tactics” China invariably compelled Thai government to fall in line.

China buoyed by geopolitical ambitions, determined to emerge as the regional superpower, unleashed quintessential tool of water diplomacy in South East Asia. Beijing revved up engagement with countries Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand through which river Mekong flows. Mekong is dubbed as Amazon of Asia. In 1995, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam signed the Mekong River Commission (MRC) with Myanmar and China upstream countries as dialog partners. Interestingly, China the upper riparian country of Mekong evaded from being part of MRC but managed to have unparalleled control over the waters by constructing numerous dams along the course of river in its territory. Statistical reports indicate that China uses more than half of total waters of the river against 16% by the lower four riparian countries. China has dubious strategies for Mekong river. Aside, availing copious amounts of Mekong waters, obsessed with dam building China clinched numerous hydroelectric dam construction projects. Thus, Chinese companies besides enormously benefitting from infrastructure projects reaped dollars by selling electricity to respective countries. Unmindful of environmental concerns, China built several dams in all the four riparian countries despite mounting protests from locals. Stalling of the humongous Myitsone dam in Myanmar amidst growing protests by locals’ mirrors brewing anti-Chinese sentiments towards China financed dams. 

Apart from the financial benefits, China aspired to convert the longest flowing river into largest shipping lane for Chinese trade. To facilitate swift shipping cargo, China entered into agreement with Myanmar, Laos and Thailand for blasting rocks and reefs in Mekong river in 2000. Disregarding environmental concerns like changing of river course, destruction of aquatic habitat and reefs, China carried out first phase of blasting in 2002. But was forced to stop in 2003 as reef blasting potentially aggravated territorial dispute between Thailand and Laos. China’s dam building spree had reduced catchment areas for fishing, reduced water flows to downstream countries, caused displacement of several people and threatened their livelihoods. Reports now indicate that intense damming of Mekong river made the lower riparian countries flood-prone.

China’s renewed outreach towards Thailand’s military regime can be ascribed to Beijing’s intentions of developing the isthmus of Kra in Southern Thailand into an “international golden waterway”. Interestingly, ambitious Chinese idea found semblance with plans of retired Thai military generals, academicians, businessmen who revived the idea of building a long canal across Southern Thailand connecting Pacific Ocean with Indian Ocean. Indeed, Chinese military first elaborated on this idea in the Naval and Merchant Ships magazine published by China’s largest ship building conglomerate CSSC in late 2015 (2). For long China has been battling fears of choking of its imports at the narrow Malacca Strait in an event of regional escalations by the US. 80% of Chinese imports pass through this choke point. Dubbed as Malacca Dilemma, China aspires to surmount the fears of blockade by the US by bypassing the strait and routing its imports through narrow isthmus of Kra.  Kra links the Gulf of Thailand with Andaman Sea at same latitude as the island of Phuket. New reports indicate that China is keen on building Kra Canal, 135-kilometer-long, 450-meter-wide and 26-meter-deep. The proposed Kra canal would be 800 km south of Bangkok and 200km north of Thailand- Malaysia border. China right now is seriously contemplating on the incipient benefits of Kra canal over Malacca Straits which is the World’s busiest route but infested with pirates. Kra Canal route can reduce the travel time by two-three days or roughly 1200 kilometers.

As of now, Prime Minister Prayuth is opposed to proposal of Kra canal actively supported by the influential grouping of military which formed Thai Canal Association for Study and Development. It is working with Peking University in carrying out feasibility studies which are funded by a Chinese company. China is actively recruiting high power pro-Chinese Thai groups to intensively campaign for garnering public support. With apprehensions about the economic viability of Chinese investments looming large, sections of Thai community want that the project be internationally-funded. The estimated cost of canal development alone is $28 billion which is 8% of Thailand’s GDP and related infrastructure and special economic zone in the surrounding region would cost $22billion. Though the project can create 2.5 million jobs as Chinese financed projects come with an attached clause of employing Chinese personnel locals hardly stand a fair to make a living.

While the project can be a big boost to anemic Thai economy, public support is paltry. Thailand venerates traditional life style and strongly upholds ideas of environmental conservation. Besides, canal construction will have far-reaching implications on the security and sovereignty of Thailand as country will be divided into northern province with overwhelming Buddhist population and Southern province dominated by Malay-Muslims. Canal will create tensions among the ASEAN countries as Singapore might lose its business, indispensability and economic advantage. Development of this mega project will be replete with immense challenges and the hilly terrain of the region can pose formidable obstacles during construction. Above, all the canal will change the economic, financial and geopolitical arena of the region.

While the potential benefits of emerging as regional economic hub can bring prosperity to Thailand but returns are not assured and guaranteed. Unlike the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, Kra Canal has alternative transit route and hence recovering cost of investments will be long drawn. Also, unlike the OECD developmental assistance loans which have nominal interest Chinese loans have higher interest rates. With China’s appetite for resources sinking and economy showing signs of slowing down, shipping traffic might be less revenues may not be on expected lines.  In absence of robust returns from the Kra canal Loan repayment will be an upheaval task for Thailand. Singapore is internationally acclaimed smart transiting hub and to have preferential advantage over Singapore the new port must offer better services. Else it might lose the competitive advantage and go down history as yet another shining example of Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Moreover, with growing risk of conflicts between India and China, Kra Canal can become another region of consternation. In a plausible war like scenario China may not be averse to sending war ships through this canal towards Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Inimitable Chinese Media Offensive

The Doklam stand-off, which shows no signs of respite and continues to occupy the headlines unlike other Chinese incursions have several dubious distinctions to its credit. The current impasse, chronicled to be the longest so far between the two countries by and large is partly scripted, steered, concocted, and exacerbated by the Chinese media. The unprecedented role played by Chinese media in ramping up rhetoric and deftly launching a psychological war against India is imminent. By infamously, queering the narrative assenting to Chinese interests, the media has piquantly positioned China to achieve a logical end to its transgression by launching a tirade of false propaganda. Brahma Chellaney, noted strategic expert opined that Chinese media is employing twin tools of deception and propaganda to corner India. Through steady escalation of the propaganda, China aims to pressurize India into withdrawing troops from Doklam and eventually have its way with India, without firing a single shot. Vainly, assuring the world of its “peaceful rise” China slowly developed an intricate network that could augur well with its expansionist zealotry.

Ironically, China which relies on official censorship and employs 2 million people to safeguard the huge fire wall has invested heavily in building a robust state media. The apparent rise of Chinese state media and its imminent power projection became more reverberant with its deplorable remarks of US presidential elections. Chinese state media’s insinuating digs at democratic values after the Brexit polls and renewed appeal to push and project communist agenda reaffirmed its motives. Besides, projecting itself an emerging super power, Beijing was eternally inclined to portray Communism as an attractive option. At a time when ordinary masses in China are grappling for a breather of freedom of expression, Beijing is developing an extensive network of propaganda machinery to influence the public opinion of the World.

Ever since the Doklam stand-off, raucous war-mongering narrative of Chinese media has intensified several-fold. The slow but steady escalation of the psychological war of China is evident from the series of the outliers propagated by Global Times and Xinhua, the prime Chinese media networks. Besides repeatedly intimidating India by referring to huge differences in GDP numbers, the Global Times has claimed that Indian foreign minister was wrong. It accused Sushma Swaraj of lying to Parliament and warned India of dire consequences. It added that “First, India’s invasion of Chinese territory is a plain fact. New Delhi’s impetuous actions stun international community. No other country will support India’s aggression. Second, India’s military strength is far behind that of China. If the conflict between China and India escalates to the intensity where their row has to be resolved through military means, India will surely lose”. Periodical allusions to 1962 war while eclipsing China’s infringement of mutually agreed terms of maintaining status quo at the trijunction clearly reflects duplicity of Chinese media. For all the claims of saber-rattling, indicating that Beijing is moving all the military hardware and ammunition to Tibet, Indian intelligence reports confirmed that there wasn’t any such movement. Clearly, the orchestrated war-mongering is one of strategic features of China’s psychological war. Beijing’s high-handedness in the trijunction has been an attempt to force India into subordination. On one hand, despite being the aggressor, China is playing the victim card and on the other hand, China is flexing military muscles.

Perpetual muscle flexing of China is becoming more rampant now. Last week, China dispatched troops to Djibouti, its first overseas military base. The Peoples Liberation Army Airforce (PLAAF) flew six Xian H-6K long range bombers over Miyako Strait, located between Japanese islands of Miyako and Okinawa. Justifying its action, Chinese Ministry of Defense said that it was “legal and proper” for the PLAAF for operate and there should be “no cause for alarm or speculation” and said Japan “should not make fuss about nothing or over interpret, it will be fine once they get used to it”. Similarly, Beijing has sent H-6 bombers, Y-8 electronic intelligence aircraft and Y-8 jammer air craft that flew close to Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). When Taiwanese published the pictures of the Chinese jets, Chinese defence ministry asserted that Taiwanese people should “remain at ease”. Interestingly, while China alleged that tri-nation Malabar exercises off the Indian Ocean as a threat to regional security and targeted China, it has kicked-off military exercises with Russia in the Baltic Sea. In reply to China-Russia drill, Global Times remarked that “NATO shouldn’t worry as China is a rare gentle rising power” Under the façade of soft diplomacy, China is mastering the art of twisting the narratives in its favor.

With the West, struggling to wade through myriad short falls of democracy, China is trying to espouse its ideologies across the World. Soft power push which was initiated by President Hu Jintao in 2007, received an unprecedented support from President Xi, who even before taking power at the 17^th Central Committee of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) declared that national goal is to “build our country into a socialist cultural superpower”.  In 2014, Xi openly announced that “we should increase China’s soft power, give a good Chinese narrative, and better communicate China’s messages to the World”. Concomitantly, new slogans like “Chinese dream”, “Asia-Pacific Dream”, “The silk road economic belt”, “the 21^st century maritime silk road” were coined and entire Chinese machinery was mobilized to reach these goals. Henceforth a $10 billion annual budget was allocated to strengthen the Chinese media network. Thus, Chinese government effectively unveiled the process of indoctrination of the World with newest Chinese narratives. With this, China besides controlling the inflow of information into its territory began largely manipulating the perceptions of World towards the Middle Kingdom. The Chinese media’s prime censor and media watch dog State Council Information Office (SCIO), coordinated all propaganda activities. Unlike other countries which are against propaganda, China strongly believes in this mantra and takes pride in managing the propaganda networks. Principal organs of this government operated media include- Xinhua, China Central Television (CCTV), China Radio International, People’s Daily Website and Qingdao Publishing Group which relentlessly strive to change the discourse. This strategy works in tandem with the selective censorship of media networks that are critical to China.

Besides, media another realm that was employed to push Chinese narrative has been through educational institutions, which include establishing Confucius Institutes in reputed Western Universities. First Confucius Institute was opened in South Korea in 2004. As of now, 475 centers are operating in 120 countries. But slowly these institutes are drawing flak and professors in US and Canada are now calling for close down on the grounds of undermining “academic freedom”. Incidentally all countries are known to foster their cultural identities like China which included countries like Japan, Germany, France, Britain and US through government funded institutes. But Confucius Institutes earned the infamous reputation of promoting the Communist party ideology at the behest of decrying Dalai Lama, Falun Gong and for condemning the Tiananmen massacre. China’s obfuscation and censorship made nations supremely skeptical of its institutes. Months before China hosted G-20 summit last year, Alibaba Group took over the South China Morning Post Group operating from Hongkong catering to English readers to portray a favorable opinion of China. Around the same period, China signed six agreements with Australian media outlets.  Consequently, the Fair Fax media of Australia strongly affirmed Chinese claims over the Scarborough Islands and published full length articles titled “Manila has no leg to stand on”.

In an article about Chinese push for soft diplomacy David Shambaugh mentioned that think-tanks like China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, the China Institute of International Studies and Shanghai Institute of International Studies, serve dual functions of promoting the government narratives. Though it may be argued that think-tanks in other countries are generously funded by governments but Chinese institutes double up as conduits for selling ideologies of government. Now Chinese millionaires are funding private institutes that can project a glorious picture of China to outside world to boost up investment credentials in other parts of globe. Together, China through massive financial investments in propaganda machinery, education tools and academic citations is aiming to present an exceptionally warm image of China exculpating the excesses of the authoritarian regime. Clearly, Pew Research Centre’s Global Attitudes Project of 2017, suggested that the huge investments of China in soft diplomacy is yielding mixed results. While majority still view US as the top global economic superpower, China leads US in Australia by a margin of two-to-one. This in part can be attributed to overwhelming Chinese influence over Australian media. Ironically, for all its massive investments in Latin American and African countries, China’s favorability rating is pretty low. While there is an improvement in perceptions towards China in European countries (perhaps !!! spurred by poor confidence towards Trump), EU’s decision to review anti-dumping laws and reinvestigating burgeoning Chinese investments indicate otherwise.

But now as it emerges, Chinese media is clearly shifting the goal posts in Doklam stand-off and attempting to bring India to its heels by making insidious and undiplomatic remarks. Through reprehensible remarks on Hindu nationalism, dubitable apprehensions on Sikkim merger issue, threatening of domestic unrest and capricious references to NSA chief Ajit Doval, Chinese media is intimidating India. While India has been fervently pitching for peace talks to resolve the deadlock, ahead of Indian NSA visit to Beijing, Global Times is blowing discordant chimes. Warning India the daily said, “it is never too late for India to mend its way” and reiterated, “New Delhi should give up its illusions, and Doval’s Beijing visit is most certainly not an opportunity to settle the standoff in accordance with India’s will” and added that “As Doval is believed to be one of the main schemers behind the current border stand-off between Chinese and Indian troops, the Indian media is pinning high hopes on the trip to settle the ongoing dispute”. Clearly, the bellicose posturing of China is clearly reflected in the reckless remarks of its media.

China is waging a full blown psychological war on India. Meanwhile, the cult of Chinese apologists in India are discrediting New Delhi for its stand. Against all odds, India is not showing any signs of wilting. India must firmly hold its ground, for its strategic security interests and its regional influence is at stake. While India is poised to give a bloody nose to China at Doklam plateau, minor security lapse along any stretch of the Indo-China border can entail a huge damage to India.

Army orchestrated Judicial Coup unseats Nawaz Sharif

In the 70 years of Pakistan’s existence, the self-proclaimed democratic nation, not a single prime minister has served a full term. The first prime minister of Pakistan, Liaquat Ali Khan, who was close to finishing his full term was assassinated. Nawaz Sharif held the Prime Ministerial post thrice. But never completed a full term. His Prime Ministerial stints in 1990 and 1997 ended abruptly. In 1993, Army chief Waheed forced him to step down and in 1999 General Pervez Musharraf’s palace coup and his subsequent exile to Saudi Arabia, prevented him from serving full term. In his third stint, Sharif, who 11 months short of completing full term was forced to resign after Supreme Court ordered his to step down over corruption charges. In a unanimous verdict delivered by the Supreme Court comprising members from FIA (Federal Investigation Agency), Military Intelligence, ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence, NAB (National Accountability Bureau), SECP (Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan) and State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from holding his office. Invoking the precincts of Article 62 and 63 of Constitution, Sharif was deemed unfit for holding the official position of Prime Minister for furnishing false declarations about his assets and for not being honest.

The verdict generated mixed responses with opposition leaders remarking it as historic judgement and hailing the robustness of Pakistan’s judicial system. While Sharif’s party PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) reacted that “There has been injustice against us. Nawaz Sharif will step down as premier of Pakistan despite reservations regarding the verdict”.

Corruption charges were instituted against Nawaz Sharif when Panama Papers Leak revealed links between Sharif’s three children to offshore companies. Though Sharif’s name didn’t figure in the papers, since the assets of his children weren’t declared in the family wealth statement, opposition trained guns against the Prime Minister. Soon a panel was set up to investigate the alleged offshore accounts. Pakistan’s principal opposition leader of PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaf) party, Imran Khan intensified protests by September 2016. Khan along with Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed and Siraj-ul-Haq filed a case against Sharif for money laundering and corruption. In April 2017, court ordered the formation of JIT to investigate the case. Supreme Court in its verdict stated that Sharif has been dishonest for not disclosing his salary from UAE-based company in his election filing papers in 2013. Court ordered election commission to disqualify him from being member of Majlis-e-Shura (Parliament).

For all the loud claims of victory for justice, Sharif was convicted by court without trial. It is beyond conventional wisdom as how head of the government can be unseated from power just on the premise of allegations of corruption. Further, charges against his children (Maryam, Hassan, Hussain) and son-in-law Safdar were not conclusively proved.  A mere glance at the composition of the six-member Joint Investigation Team (JIT) vested with charges of probing the revelations of Panama Papers leak against Sharif’s three children indicates it pre-meditated by Pakistani Army. Moreover, Imran Khan being plaintiff of the case is even more a suspect, with similar cases pending against him in the Supreme Court. Intriguingly, how can JIT investigate the charges of corruption against Sharif with an illustrious political career of over 30 years in just 3 months and deliver an unbiased judgement. Needless to say, Pakistan Army has been covertly preparing ground for ousting Sharif.

In 2013 Sharif’s PML-N emerged as a big winner with thumping majority. Subsequently opposition parties PTI and PPP (Pakistan’s Peoples Party) accused Sharif of rigging. Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri took to streets demanding fresh elections and resignation of Sharif. Days before Independence Day, Khan’s Freedom March, brought Islamabad to a standstill.  The stand-off between the protestors and Sharif government ended when Sharif agreed to strike a deal with General Raheel Sharif. Accordingly, Army will have the final say in foreign policy and that Civilian government in charge Nawaz Sharif will look after civil administration, economic and financial aspects. Thus, Khan in collusion with Army reduced Sharif to a mere figurative head. Subsequently Army launched the operation Zarb-e-Azab and began to flex its muscles ruthlessly ever since. General Raheel Sharif become invincible eventually and GHQ Rawalpindi reigned supreme. Army’s anti-India agenda began to gain much ground. Though Sharif wasn’t obnoxiously anti-Indian, he was clearly moved by Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore on his birthday eve. Annihilating traces of budding bonhomie, Deep State, within a week of Modi’s Pakistan visit, scuttled peace talks with Pathankot attack. Subsequently, Army escalated tensions between both countries by intensifying cease-fire violations and massive infiltrations. Mobilizing its strategic assets Army fomented terror, orchestrated insurgency in Kashmir after the killing of Burhan Wani and glorified him as martyr. With these inimical onslaughts, Indo-Pak relations have damaged beyond repair. Even Jihadi groups had a free run with Hafiz Saeed leading marches and rallies in Islamabad.

India in the meanwhile, intensified efforts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan at international forums. The intensive campaign eventually forced SAARC nations to boycott summit at Islamabad. With voices of international isolation becoming more strident, fissures between civilian and military leadership deepened. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif burdened by prospect of international isolation has issued a terse message to Army asking them to rein-in on jihadi elements. In the meanwhile, even China which lent unstinted support to Pakistan Army by way of vetoing ban on Masood Azhar, has asked Pakistan Army to go slow. Pakistan’s relations with US entered a tumultuous phase. Sharif began to question the actions of Army and issued directives to conclude Pathankot investigation. From the inception, Pakistan Army was adopted to have a rubber stamp civilian head.  A stern message and intervention from civilian authority irked the Army. Though pulling rug under Sharif’s feet may not be a difficult task for Pakistan Army, it has waited for an occasion. Unsurprisingly, it roped in disgruntled opposition and used the Panama Leaks revelations to topple Sharif’s government. In the process, top army officials have colluded with Judiciary to bring down the civilian government.

Ironically, Pakistan is a country whose civilian and military officials are corrupt to the core. National Accountability Bureau (NAB) reported that Pakistan loses around $133 million daily to systemic corruption. Only 0.3% of Pakistan population pays taxes. Politicians, traders and Army officials top the list of tax evaders. Hence, selective targeting of politician for corruption charges raises more suspicions and reiterates deliberate derailment of judicial system.

As of now speculations are rife that Nawaz Sharif’s youngest brother, Chief Minister of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif might become the next Prime Minister. Apparently, change of guard may have little to change the nefarious game play of Pakistan Army. Moreover, seasoned Pakistani politicians are reluctant to change Pakistan’s obsession of bleed India by thousand cuts. Also, with China flexing its muscles and backing Pakistan Army to escalate tensions on the western front, newly elected prime minister may have little appetite to restrain Army’s inimical policies either towards India or Afghanistan.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Bihar Political Crisis: “Midnight rush”

Whosoever said, politics is a different ball game seems to have it right. The unprecedented pace of events that unfolded in Bihar politics were no less a roller coaster ride. Even the hard-core political junkies were astounded by the unraveling of developments that outpaced conventional thinking. Till now obtaining numbers was considered the ultimate salvation in politics. But now cementing the political mandate and staking claims to form government has become latest gold standard in Indian politics.

High drama unfurled in Bihar with Nitish Kumar tendering resignation as the Chief minister by parting ways with Mahaghatbhandan, an alliance of convenience formed in 2015, to defeat BJP. The flurry of political activity that ensued following the public announcement of Nitish’s resignation can throw avid political observers into tizzy. Startled by quick pace of developments critics alleged that Nitish’s move was pre-meditated and in part orchestrated by stalwarts in BJP. But a close look at the series of events aimed at consolidation of political mandate suggests that it wasn’t choreographed after all. No sooner, had Nitish announced his resignation, Prime Minister Modi congratulated him and extended his support in his fight against corruption. Soon the BJP MLAs in Bihar assembled to take stock of the recent developments. Meanwhile, as a matter of sheer coincidence, top leaders of BJP at Delhi discussed Bihar issue at a pre-scheduled BJP parliamentary board meet. Soon a three-member panel containing State BJP President Nityanand Rai, Sushil Modi and Leader of Opposition in Assembly Prem Kumar was constituted to analyze situation of Bihar. Shortly, Sushil Modi in unequivocal terms announced that BJP was against mid-term elections.

In the meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav lashed out at Nitish Kumar and levelled murder charges against Nitish Kumar reminding him that a FIR was lodged against him. Lalu’s press meet was followed by statement from the Congress, junior partner of the grand alliance, resenting the sudden resignation of Nitish Kumar and promised to work for resolving the differences in the “grand alliance”.  Lalu Prasad Yadav, has a reputation of being master of coalitions. BJP and JD (U) wary of his horse trading politics, quickly made decisions. BJP announces support for JD(U) and elects Nitish Kumar as the leader of state for NDA alliance with Sushil Modi as Deputy Chief Minister. Without losing any time, both parties together garner support of all its MLAs. BJP soon hands over letter of support from 132 legislators to Governor Keshri Nath Tripathi.

It must be noted during the entire process of hectic political rallying and consolidation, Congress, the grand old party, known to have gone through thick and thin of Indian politics, plagued by political lethargy failed to take a plunge into the political disarray. Baring a statement from Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala, hardly it made any noise. The reluctant, Congress Vice-President’s indifference was glaringly conspicuous for not issuing a public statement even after this ground-breaking development in Bihar. Let alone summoning leaders to Patna to resolve the issue, the deafening silence and dereliction of political responsibilities smoothened the path towards power for JD(U), BJP combine. In sharp contrast, vivacity, political acumen, alacrity, mobilization of cadres, timely intervention and right decision paved way for realization of political ambitions for BJP.

RJD, miffed by power claims of JD(U), BJP combined made attempts to foil their attempts late in the midnight. After Nitish Kumar received invitation to form government, Tejashwi Yadav sought appointment with Governor and stakes claim to form government. Dubbed as “midnight rush” reports of preponement of swearing-in ceremony from 5pm to 10 am cropped up. As a last bid attempt, Tejashwi marches to Raj Bhavan with his MLA’s requesting governor to allow them to form the government for being the single largest party.  Meanwhile, Lalu Yadav calls for a state-wide agitation by RJD workers. But ultimately withdraws the call an hour before Nitish Kumar’s swearing-in as chief Minister of Bihar under NDA alliance. Amidst sec-144 imposed near Raj Bhavan, Nitish Kumar was back as chief minister of Bihar in less than 15 hours of his resignation and divorce from “grand alliance”. With rumors of horse trading running high and dry, Governor ordered for a floor test in the next 24 hrs.

Interestingly, minutes after Nitish was sworn-in Rahul Gandhi, fired a salvo saying, “He (Nitish) joined hands with us in anti-communal fight, but Nitish Kumar, for his personal politics, joined hands with those against whom he has fought”. He added “In politics you come to know of what is going on in the minds of the people. Clearly, I knew Nitishji is planning. We knew this was going on for the last three-four months. People do anything for selfish motives. There is no principle, no credibility. They can do anything for power”. Apparently, Nitish is known to be a wily politician and an opportunist.  Flush with national ambitions, Nitish had parted ways with BJP after 17 years of alliance. Having earned a formidable reputation for his clean image in politics, Nitish eventually aspired to make a grand standing in national political arena. Narendra Modi’s overwhelming charisma and burgeoning popularity began to constrain Nitish’s ambitions. These seeds of frustration augured by growing stature of Modi led to crumbling of JD(U), BJP alliance. To give more power to his ambitions, Nitish joined hands with RJD and Congress forming the Mahaghatbhandan which erroneously split the votes catapulting the grand alliance to power. Nitish believed that he would be favorably rewarded for his good governance and would emerge as the key player in the grand alliance gaining maximum numbers. But RJD emerged as the single largest party. Despite administrative encumbrance and political differences Nitish managed to govern the state for almost 20 months under the grand alliance. While Nitish’s endorsement of demonetization and support to Presidential candidate Ramnath Kovind irked the other alliance partners, the superficial fractures failed to dismantle the “Mahaghatbhandan”. But the internal abrasions became more prominent after FIR was filed against Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav in disproportionate assets case and when Nitish failed to get reasonable explanation from Tejashwi for the corruption charges. In the meanwhile, Congress lent vocal support to Lalu and his claims that he and his family was subjected to political vendetta by the centre. For over a month after the corruption charges were levelled against Tejashwi, JD (U) signaled that Yadav should quit. But Lalu Yadav persisted that Tejashwi wouldn’t quit. Miffed Nitish travelled to Delhi to meet Rahul and apprise him of the situation. Rahul insisted that grand alliance should be saved from trivial rifts.

Now, Rahul Gandhi alleging that he was aware of Nitish’s intentions 3-4 months ahead sounds incredulous since he had every opportunity to save the grand alliance from falling apart, if he had the audacity to ask Tejashwi to resign on corruption charges. Apparently, Congress has no moral ground to summon someone on corruption charges, with the dynasty reeling under mounting charges of payoffs, fraud, and corruption. Slowly, the grand old party is becoming irrelevant with every passing day. Crumbling under the travails of inept leadership, overpowered by adamancy to learn from mistakes, refusal to revive cadres and besieged by opaque functioning, Congress is invariably sinking into an abyss of political catastrophe. Endless cycle of self-goals and bouts of intermittent political activity is ensuring its slow but steady decay.

With next general election, less than two years away, Congress is surely on its path to degradation. Since 2014, Congress has been consistently losing its political hold over various states. Baring Punjab, which is its crowning glory, thanks to the commendable efforts of Captain Amarinder Singh, Congress lost every other Assembly election. Despite a series of electoral defeats, Congress refuses to introspect. In 2014, it lost the position of principal opposition, and was forced to play a second fiddle. After losing Bihar, it is proven that Congress isn’t capable of being a junior alliance in coalition. On the other hand, by outshining rivals and through swift political maneuvering BJP despite the numbers made rapid progress by forming coalition governments in states like Goa and Manipur. BJP juggernaut led by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah as of now appears omniscient, decimating the opposition rendering them inept.

Bihar crisis could have been averted had the Grand alliance displayed courage to uphold values. While Nitish is an opportunist politician, incipient dynasticism of power obsessed Indian politicians has claimed yet another scalp. Going by the current trends, the opposition combined desperate on mauling BJP are critically short of a stratagem and commitment. Meanwhile, as the opposition continue to blunder and castigate the central government for sake of momentary glory, BJP’s political fortunes shine more brightly.

Meanwhile, all is not well within JD(U) as voices of dissent within the camp becoming shriller. Though the BJP, JD (U) combine have seven votes more than the majority, serious doubts are raised about the loyalty of five Muslim legislators and six Yadavs. Further, Sharad Yadav didn’t attend the oath taking ceremony of Nitish Kumar. He was in Delhi meeting Rahul Gandhi. Indian politics has dubious reputations of defections and poaching. JD (U) MP Ali Anwar Ansari is stoking voices of dissent. Though NDA has the numbers, it should keep fingers crossed until tomorrow’s trust vote.

@ Copyrights reserved.

Breaking of Antarctic Larsen C Ice Shelf: An inimical off-shoot of Climate Change

Debates of climate changed picked up traction with ignoble US president announcing the withdrawal of America from the Paris Climate Accord. Protesting the indifference of politicians towards the climate change environmentalists expressed their discontentment with massive protests at Hamburg where G-20 leaders assembled for the summit meet. Days after conclusion of the summit, European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 mission, announced that Larsen C ice-shelf, the fourth largest in the World (5800 sq km) comprising of 12% of total area of Antarctica broke off from the frozen continent.

Ice-shelves are humongous repositories which are formed when glaciers on land begin to spread out over the sea. They essentially prevent the drifting of glacial ice into sea and thereby regulate sea level rise. In general, glacial ice, chips off to form icebergs. Now snapping of 12 trillion cubic meters of ice, larger than Haryana, is believed to change the landscape of Antarctica. While the immediate effects of this event are not ominous, scientists are carefully monitoring rest of the ice-shelf closely. The ice shelf which looks like a crooked finger is pointing towards tip of the South America is an extension of huge West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The ice-shelf when ripped off completely will exist as a 190-meter-thick iceberg nearly four times the height of Qutub Minar.

Indeed, fissures in the Larsen C ice-shelf first appeared in 2010. The tear which spread 10 meters per day gradually accelerated to 36 mt before finally snapped away on July 12th. Splintering of ice shelf has already begun and the smaller ice bergs are now heading towards Weddell Sea. Experts at Scripps Institute of Oceanography said that ice fragments might eventually move further north towards South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands.

Breaking of ice-shelf is a natural process. Antarctica ice is tightly compressed at the edges of its rocky base and under the weight of huge ice accumulations, ice shelves break off from time to time. Hence breaking of ice shelves can’t be attributed to global warming directly. But what caught the attention of the scientists is the shortened frequency of the calving (breaking of ice-shelves) process. Ice shelves which form 75% of coastal Antarctica are susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature from above and ocean warming from below. Though the role of warm climates in triggering calving is not scientifically established as of now, experts believe don’t belie its role.

Gigantic Icy continent is firmly edged by ice-shelves which form the coastal region while glaciers impound inlands. Thwaites glaciers, a gigantic bulk of ice part of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet, located further inland has become cause of intense concern. Rapidly changing climates led to melting and sliding of the glaciers into sea pushing up sea levels. Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions accentuate melting of glaciers. It is estimated that melting of West Antarctica Ice Sheet can increase sea level by 3 meters. On the contrary, ice-shelf breaking may not increase the sea-level since this portion of ice was already in water. Volume of water produced after the ice shelf melting is equal to volume of ice that was displaced. But calving of ice-shelf and its gradual melting will greatly destabilize the land ice. Though scientists are hopeful that ice-shelf will regrow but chipping away of huge chunks of ice-shelves at regular intervals will inadvertently make Antarctica less stable. If the newly calved iceberg drifts into warm oceans, it can just long for few decades. Ice shelves act as sinks for glaciers and their calving will eventually hasten melting of glaciers leading to increase in sea-level. In 2015, a report in reputed journal Science warned that ice-shelves in Antarctica are thinning at an accelerated pace and that ice-shelves ceased to gain volume.

Larsen Shelf is named after the Norwegian explorer Carl Anton Larsen who in 1890, sailed along the 1000km western coastal stretch. The Larsen shelf comprises of distinct shelves- Larsen A, B, C and D. In 1995, Larsen A broke away and melted completely in seven years.  The 10,000 years old Larsen B separated from Antarctica in 2002 and became an iceberg. Reports showed that Larsen B calving speeded up glacier collapse by 300 to 800%. Larsen C is five times the size of Larsen B. NASA scientist Cavin Schmidt said that complete melt down of Larsen C might increase sea level by 0.1mm.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fifth Assessment Report (5AR), indicated that temperatures in Antarctic peninsula where Larsen-C is located, are rising four to six times that of global average. Though role of global warming wasn’t scientifically established as of now, reputed scientific journal, Nature, opined that increased human (anthropogenic) activity in Antarctica is posing new threat. Surge in number of tourists visiting Antarctica is drastically changing the delicate ecosystem of Antarctica. Especially visitors to coastal regions has increased from 1.5 million in 2004-05 to 2.6 million in 2013-14. Interestingly, Antarctica is in news recently for being the venue for first ever wedding ceremony of expedition leaders of British Antarctica Survey (BAS).

As per IPCC reports twentieth century witnessed a linear increase of sea-level caused by warmer oceans and melting glaciers. In 21^st century rise of sea-level is exponential because of melting of fast flowing glaciers and subsequent breaking of ice-shelves of Greenland and Antarctica. Already islands in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and countries with huge coasts are facing the inimical effects of global warming. Besides the impending threats of inundation, rising sea-levels are critically endangering livelihoods of thousands of people living along the coasts. Fertile cultivable lands are rendered barren by salty depositions. Fresh water resources are becoming salty. 

Mounting evidences unequivocally indicate that unscrupulous human activity has irrevocably disturbed delicate balance of nature. The irreversible damage can be controlled through collective action and committed nurture. It is time international collaboration be ramped up to tame the disastrous cycle of events triggered by global warming. But sadly, overpowered by ritualistic nationalism, America, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is dragging its feet. Abdicating responsibilities towards environment will push us closer to a brink of self-inflicted catastrophic consequences. Calving of Antarctic ice-shelf is an inimical distress signal lest the World choses to brush it off at its own peril.

@ Copyrights reserved.