United States checkmates Pakistan’s double game by cancelling aid

Days ahead of US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s brief stopover at Islamabad before proceeding for the 2+2 strategic and comprehensive dialogue with India, Washington has announced cancellation of $300 million to Pakistan. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump accusing Pakistan on twitter, “United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid for over 15 years and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools” and withheld $500 million so-called Coalition Security Fund (CSF). The latest move comes as a massive jolt to Pakistan bracing plummeting forex reserves, raising export bill and slowing economy. This year, Pakistan has accrued cumulative losses of $800 million in aid from US. Though embittered by US’s punitive economic action, Pakistan foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said, “the $300 million is neither aid nor assistance-it is the money Pakistan has spent from its resources against militants in the war against terrorism. This is the money they are supposed to reimburse, but now either they are not willing or unable to pay back”. 

Trump’s retaliatory actions are in reckoning, given the huge losses suffered by the massive Taliban attack on Afghan base in northern province of Ghazni. Taliban seized the Afghan base with 140 personnel for three days killing 17 soldiers before the retaliatory push back by security forces. Over 1000 Taliban fighters took over the city of Ghazni, disabled telecommunication network and paralysed civilian life. The attack on the strategic Ghazni city 120 kilometres from Kabul a show of strength by Taliban bristled US which ordered air strikes and rushed forces to Afghanistan. The attack which lasted for five days claimed lives of 150 Afghan soldiers and 150 civilians. The 17-year long America’s unwinnable battle in Afghanistan once again exposed Pakistan’s double game and duplicitous cooperation. Days after the attack, Afghan Defence Minister claimed that Taliban carried out Ghazni attack with external support which includes Pakistan. Though Pakistan rejected all allegations of covert support to Taliban fighters, reports of bodies of Taliban fighters were sent back to Pakistan for funeral unmasked Islamabad’s chicanery.

Taliban’s unprecedented attacks on Ghazni came at a time when Trump announced new strategy to win war in Afghanistan. American hopes not only came down crashing, but the reliable reports of Pakistan’s army extending support to Pakistan has prompted Trump to toughen hard-line approach towards Pakistan. Unlike the earlier altruistic American regimes, Trump miffed by Pakistan’s recalcitrance to act of terror havens operating from its territory the current regime dumped reconciliatory approach. Ever since, America withheld economic and military assistance, added seven Pakistani companies carrying out nuclear trade as risk to national security and dented Pakistan’s bid for membership to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). As the spat intensified, US imposed restriction on the movements of Pakistani diplomats in America and Pakistan imposed reciprocal travel restrictions on American diplomats. Further, the relentless anti-American narratives peddled by different political parties seeded suspicion and bilateral plumbed to a new low. Perhaps, owing to Pakistan’s fresh overtures to Russia, American has even scrapped coveted training program to Pakistani officers silently. By June, America has pushed for Pakistan’s inclusion in the grey-list of FATF (Financial Action Task Force). To this end, America even acceded to China’s proposal of bestowing it with Vice-Presidentship of FATF in reciprocation of its support to black-list Pakistan and even threatened to block Pakistan’s IMF bail out plea. Despite this slew of measures against Pakistan, Rawalpindi believed that Trump will not have stomach for further escalation against Pakistan. But much to the surprise of Pakistan Trump has cancelled the much needed $300 million fund.

Coming under heat for failing to deliver, just a day ahead of Mike Pompeo’s arrival at the behest of Pakistan Afghan Taliban announced death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of the Haqqani network. US is exerting pressure on Pakistan to bring the Afghan Taliban to table for peace negotiation. This tactical announcement is an attempt by Pakistan to buy more time while it will be business as usual for the Taliban fighters. Haqqani network has very close connections with Pakistan military establishment and served as American asset during the Cold war in Afghanistan. Indeed, US financed Haqqani network’s activities. But around 1990s Haqqani cultivated strong links with Osama bin Laden and served as Minister during the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001. Haqqani network is now one of the most cohesive groups in Afghanistan over which Pakistan have an absolute control.

The intractable war of Afghanistan with a no visible end, is making US anxious. After 9/11 Pakistan promised to help America in its war against terrorism but over the years, its double game, litany of lies and duplicitous approach has been glaringly evident. Successive regimes have pledged cooperation but civilian leadership which is under the control of military establishment has never delivered. Whenever America pulled up Pakistan, it was armed with an excuse of having lost thousands of soldiers deployed at border and the resources expended to the rampage of Taliban forces. Pakistan suffered loss of lives for harbouring and cultivating terrorists, most of it has been its own making. It reaped what it has sowed.

In 2012, America instituted CSF as a reward to compensate Pakistan for the losses suffered, for providing access routes including airfields, ports and roads to carry supplies to the American forces in Afghanistan. Irrespective of the outcomes, to sustain a long-term engagement America continued to disburse funds to Pakistan. To keep the funds flowing Pakistan maintained good rapport with Pentagon, Congress and successive American leaderships. But chinks in the bilateral trust deepened since 2014, when Coalition forces began to slowly with draw from Afghanistan and Taliban & Haqqani networks intensified assaults. US administration was miffed by vexatious attacks on its security forces. American criticism grew louder and bilateral ties have come under strain with White House cutting down aid to Pakistan proportionately. With financial largesse slowly evaporating, Pakistan which is reliant on American funds began to cry foul that it has been victim of terror. Around the same period Pakistan deepened ties with China inking $62 billion CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor).

Despite its stringent anti-American narratives, Pakistan neither retaliated by throttling American supplies into Afghanistan nor scrapped its support to Haqqani and Taliban fighters. It smartly kept all its option open. Wary of losing lumpsum American aid Pakistan at times effectively played China card against Washington.

But in the meanwhile, American worst suspicions of Pakistan’s reluctance to crackdown on Afghan Taliban and duplicitous approach deepened when Pakistan military brutally crushed Pakistan Taliban citing irreconcilable difference while it refused to fire a single shot against Afghan Taliban. Instead it recommended that talks with Taliban can be only way forward for Afghanistan. Soon, America kept Pakistan out of the loop and held direct talks with Taliban leaders without any preconditions.

Distressed by Pakistan’s perfidy, America has made drastic amends to its South Asian policy. Husain Haqqani, director at Hudson Institute and former Pakistani Ambassador to the US opined, “what is different this time is the willingness of the US side to recognise that Pakistan may not just be a difficult ally that needs to be persuaded to cooperate a bit more, but a country that is no longer an ally”. Consequently, Pakistan besides losing its strategic advantage of being closet ally of the US in South Asia is being prodded by China to renew engagement with India and contain its terror activities across the borders. Since any instability along the CPEC or in Afghanistan might dent its aspirations to exert sizeable control over the region and to its strategy of a connected Eurasia through BRI.

Yesterday, Mike Pompeo accompanied by US military chief Joseph Dunford held talks with Prime Minister Imran Khan who spear headed anti-American campaign during elections in a remarkable volte-face aspired for a constructive engagement with the US in this victory speech and army chief General Qamar Bajwa at Islamabad. Cognizant that Pakistan’s retaliation of closing the air and land supply chains to Afghanistan would be inimical, Pompeo in a tough balancing act indicated that Trump administration has “real expectations” from Pakistan. While Pakistani military officials were miffed by American decision of cancelling of aid and even mulled scrapping talks, they engaged with US officials. Summing up America’s stratagem towards Pakistan Michael Kugelman Senior associate for South Asia at Wilson Centre said, “Washington’s recent decision to cancel aid to Pakistan emphasizes that it means business, and yet Imran Khan’s new government has vowed it won’t be dictated to by United States”. But ostensibly Pakistan may have to give up its cavalier attitude towards US given its urgent need for IMF bail out package.

@ Copyrights reserved.