The much-anticipated inaugural session of the
2+2 strategic defence dialogue which was postponed twice, kick started in New
Delhi culminated in signing of a landmark COMCASA agreement (Communications
Compatibility and Security Agreement). The inaugural Ministerial level talks
initiated by Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Washington in 2017 with tacit support of President Trump provided new
impetus to Indo-US bilateral ties. Reflecting greater strategic convergences
between India and the US, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and
Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman hosted their counterparts from US, Mike
Pompeo and James Mattis on September 6th. As a mark of friendship
and respect Indian Ministers received US counterparts at the airport.
Since the turn of the century bolstering trust
and friendship both countries first signed the General Security Military
Information Agreement (GSOMIA) one of the foundational agreements in 2002.
Amidst apprehensions and domestic hesitations, India signed the landmark civil
nuclear agreement in 2008 which eventually enabled a nuclear waiver for India
at NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group). For a comprehensive defence partnership, US
sought India to sign four foundational agreements for enhancing defence
cooperation. Despite strategic concerns, overcoming traditional hesitations,
India signed another foundation agreement the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of
Agreement (LEMOA), otherwise termed as Logistics Supply Agreement (LSA) which
was suitably tweaked by the US to address Indian concerns in 2016.
Ever since Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” began to
stumble US sought to accelerate cooperation and alignment with India. With
looming Chinese belligerent presence threatening to engulf regional stability,
countries began to expedite maritime cooperation and paved way for revival of
Quad 2.0 towards the end of 2017. Subsequently, America began to replace the Asia-Pacific
term in all official documents with Indo-Pacific. In a symbolic move to
signal India’s importance to US military a day before Shangri La Dialogue,
America renamed US Pacific command or PACOM as “US Indo-Pacific Command”
or IndoPaCom. Resonating with America’s strategic policy towards region’s
security, Prime Minister Modi at the Shangri La Dialogue stressed the
importance of “rules-based international order”. Trump administration
unveiling its Indo-Pacific strategy reposed interest in cultivating ties with
partners to promote peace and security for advancing free and open
Indo-Pacific. Mike Pompeo even travelled to Malaysia, Singapore,
Indonesia to advance economic and security interest in the region and pledged
$113 million to bolster the strategy.
To strengthen bilateral security cooperation, in
December 2016, outgoing President Obama designated India as “major defense
partner”. In a major fillip to India’s major defense partner status, US
department of Commerce under Trump administration has granted “Strategic
Trade Authorization Level” (STA-1), on par with NATO allies. India is the
third country after Japan and South Korea to get this status. STA-1 entitles
India to import sensitive advanced technologies from American companies. US
conferred this status to India after New Delhi gained membership into three
nuclear regimes- Wassenaar Agreement, Australian Group and Missile Technology
Control Regime and channelized its national export control regime. This new
status will augur well for bilateral defence partnership by removing restrains
on US companies for exporting dual-use items to India. Soon, newly enacted
National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) 2019 reaffirmed India’s status.
In the past 17 years, India’s defence imports
from US has increased from near zero to staggering $18 billion. These purchases
include Lockheed Martin C-130 J Super Hercules special mission transport,
Boeing P-8I long range maritime reconnaissance, anti-submarine jets, heavy transport
aircraft C-17 Globe master III. But India don’t have access to the encrypted
radio network that can ensure interoperability of all these aircrafts or in
other words, “a family of radios for military aircraft that provides two-way
voice and data communications across modes”. Despite being huge importer of
western sourced equipment, India was plagued by a scenario of no cross talk
between equipment procured from different countries like Israel, France which
essentially have same communication standard. By signing COMCASA, India can
overcome this major hurdle in communication as US will now facilitate installation
of high-end secured communication equipment on military platforms sold to
India. This will improve interoperability of equipment during military
exercises, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. US has a system in
place that can integrate sensors, weapons systems and other support
capabilities making tactical communication easy. This in turn would enhance
India’s defence preparedness. Abhijit
Iyer-Mitra in his article indicates, “This COMCASA not only
improves India’s ability to fight along side US Navy better, but also alongside
several other global navies with similar equipment that are major players in
the Indo-Pacific such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Singapore”.
During the Doklam standoff India hugely
benefitted from the US intelligence inputs regarding the deployment of Chinese
personnel. Undeniably US has robust communication system and India would stand
to gain immensely by signing COMCASA as it can access the data in real-time
without time lag especially during critical situations. Despite these obvious
advantages, India harbours legitimate fears of America penetrating Indian
systems and of US with holding or stalling communications. Critics even
questioned the intent of BJP government into buying America’s assurances. To
address India-specific issues, US has changed this military agreement that
provides the legal framework for interoperability called the Communication and
Information on Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) to COMCASA. Strategists
even raised doubts that by signing COMCASA whether India is compromising with
its strategic autonomy and is close to becoming part of Asian NATO. But putting
end to these apprehensions, government assured, “While the text of COMCASA
is confidential, we have ensured that we have full access to the relevant
equipment and there will be no disruptions. Data acquired through such systems
cannot be disclosed or transferred to any person or entity without India’s
consent”. In a report for the Times of India, Indrani
Bagchi indicated three India-specific assurances are now part of COMCASA- that there would be no disruption
during life cycle of equipment, India specific data will not be disclosed or
transferred and national security issues will be addressed.
With India planning to purchase armed sea Guardian
drones from US, in absence of COMCASA, the equipment will lack “precision
Global Positioning System (GPS) gear and state of the art guidance”. Given
all these advantages India has signed COMCASA after several rounds of
negotiations overcoming decades of entrenched inhibitions. With this India has
signed three of the four foundational agreements baring Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial cooperation (BECA). COMCASA will be a
gamechanger and NDA regime must be hailed for its perspicacity and gumption.
Just days ahead of 2+2 dialogue, China’s
official mouth piece Global Times in a series of articles cautioned,
“it’s not best choice for India to become strategic follower of the US”.
Clearly inconvenienced by US pinning down on India as best choice for the US to
counterbalance China in the region, China reminded that Indo-China relations
have been positive since Wuhan Summit and hence both countries should “ponder
how to better cooperate”. In another op-Ed, Global Times
believed India should stay away from forging strategic ties with the US as “any
benefits will be outweighed by the costs to India”. It suggested, “India
needs to be aware that without paying heed to Indian concerns, the US’s
strategy is hampering not aiding, India’s domestic development. Rather than
falling victim to the US purpose of containing rise, it is better for India to
look to China for ways of self-development. What India can learn from China is
that its ability to stand on its feet will determine its place in Asia and the
World”. Needless to say, China’s fulminations suffice to indicate that an
extensive Indo-US strategic engagement can be a tipping point in regional
balance of power.
Aside ramping up defence partnership, successful
first round of the ministerial talks laid ground for a comprehensive
cooperation for collaborating on various regional and global issues in
bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral formats. This included the commitment
for working towards prosperous and peaceful Afghanistan. Both sides have agreed
to begin negotiations on Industrial Security Annex (ISA), tri-services
exercises and increase exchange of personnel between two militaries. After
Russia, America will be second country with which India will be holding
tri-service drills. As a part of Major Defense Partner designation, US has
pledged to assist India in the areas of co-production, innovation, expand
intelligence sharing and defence industry cooperation and collaboration. Instead
of restraining defence cooperation to narrow buyer-seller relationship, US has
committed to “support further expansion in two-way trade in defence items
and defence manufacturing supply chain linkages” taking the partnership to
next realm.
In a major fillip to counter terrorism
cooperation, on the eve of 10 years of 26/11 US asked Pakistan to expedite
perpetrators of Mumbai, Pathankot, Uri terrorist attacks. Both countries
reached consensus on issues of global and regional importance. US reiterated
its support towards India’s accession to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
Ministers agreed to enhance bilateral trade, investment and innovation. To this
end India sought a liberal H-1B regime.
Transactional president Trump obsessed with
trade imbalances imposed trade tariffs against all countries and India hasn’t
been a significant exception. Even America’s traditional allies have been at
the receiving end of Trump’s attempts to rewrite America’s foreign policy. But
unlike other countries India’s trade surplus is mere $23 billion and with India
planning to make defence purchases from the US, the deficit will be plugged. But
characteristically, Trump’s policies towards Pakistan and China hit right cords
in India and found greater congruence.
For all the perceptible strategic consonance,
ructions over economic sanctions on Russia and Iran critically impacted Indian
interests. Defence purchases from Russia, crucial Oil imports and strategic
Chabahar port development for trade with Afghanistan circumventing Pakistan are
affected by the sanctions. Russia has been longstanding supplier of defence
supplies to India. India’s purchase of advanced $5.5 billion S-400 Triumf Air
defence missile system is now mired by the CAATSA (Countering America’s
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). Despite these irritants, Ministers on both
sides worked towards engaging on issues of convergence. Insiders reported that
purchases for traditional platforms from Russia may not invite sanctions,
purchase of sophisticated weaponry will be sanctioned. This issue would remain
a sore point between both countries. But India has made it clear that it will
go ahead with purchase of S-400.
With regard to oil purchases, America indicated
that is expects countries to cut down Iranian imports to zero by November 4th.
But India being an energy-reliant country importing almost 80% of oil, refused
to accept. New Delhi
is now silently working on alternative payment mechanism. India’s
UCO bank and Bank Pasargad of Iran are mulling a tie-up. India and Iran are deliberating
a barter mechanism similar to the one they had during sanctions regime under
Obama. India would make payment to Iranian oil imports in terms of food grains,
pharmaceuticals and engineering goods. Reports indicate that Iran is all set to
handover Chabahar port for operation in a month. Going by past experience,
India and US will eventually reach a middle ground over Chabahar considering
America’s special appreciation towards New Delhi’s assistance to Afghanistan. But shrouded by cold war hangover strategists
expressed concerns over India’s heightened military engagement with America. In
the glitter of Indo-US 2+2 dialogue, Iranian Roads and Urban Development
Minister’s visit to India on the same day failed to garner any attention.
Upholding the importance of longstanding energy ties with Iran New Delhi
announced that it will not be able to reduce Oil purchases from Iran.
Indo-US strategic alignment over wide range of
issues is definitely a shot in arm for India’s aspirations to play a larger
role in regional peace and security. But Washington’s sheer lack of
conciliatory approach towards Indian concerns has reduced the historic event into
a deal-making event.
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