Confounding worst fears, President
Trump with a proclivity of reneging deals has called off much awaited talks
with North Korean Supremo Kim Jong Un scheduled for June 12th. On
May 24th, he tweeted, “I have decided to terminate the planned
summit in Singapore on June 12th. While many things can happen, and
great opportunity lies ahead potentially, I believe that this is a tremendous
set back for North Korea and indeed a setback for the World”. In consonance
with his reputation of pulling out from various agreements, Trump’s latest
volte-face though very serious was along expected lines. Trump’s decision which
comes days after his wilful pulling of America from historic Iran deal has had
eventually decimated all hopes of US striking a deal with North Korea. Trump’s
preposterous scrapping of Iran deal might have strengthened genuine suspicions
North Korea held towards the US. Given, America’s hostile approach towards
Libya and Iraq, Kim has been quite apprehensive of Trump’s conciliatory
acceptance for a summit meet. Within 24hrs of the announcing the cancellation
of the summit, Trump invigorated new hopes of bringing peace to Korean
peninsula by saying that America is not averse to reconsidering the decision of
calling off talks. This flip-flop, besides, conforming the Trump’s characteristic
uncertainty is now potentially creating confusion, eroding the reputation of decision-making
abilities of America’s presidential office.
Till now strategic experts viewed
that Kim and Trump are perfect match for being so mercurial and tough
negotiators. But North Korea’s rather circumspect response to Trump letter reneging
on Singapore Summit, has reinforced Kim’s fervent commitment towards
denuclearisation of Korean peninsula. In his
letter to Kim, Trump said, “sadly based on the tremendous anger and
open hostility displayed in your recent statements, I feel it is in appropriate
at this time to have this long-planned meeting. You talk of nuclear
capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God that they
will never have to be used”. In reply to
this intimidating American response, DPRK’s first vice-president of foreign
affairs, Kim Kye Gwan, said, “As far as the historic DPRK-US summit is
concerned, we have inwardly highly appreciated President Trump for having made
a bold decision, which any other US presidents dared not, and made efforts for
such a crucial event as the summit. His sudden and unilateral announcement to
cancel the summit is something unexpected to us and we cannot but feel great
regret for it”….. and added “But we remain unchanged in our goal and
will do everything we could for peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and
the mankind, and we are broad-minded and open all the time, have the
willingness to offer the US side time and opportunity”. With these
remarks, DPRK shifted onus on Trump to take a final call and hasn’t shied away
from saying that America is still not confident about DPRK’s commitment towards
peace.
While US and DPRK openly divulged
their reactions, the country which expended diplomatic energies, South Korea
was deeply disappointed. Trump’s sudden decision of cancelling the summit left
South Korean leader Moon Jae-in flabbergasted who travelled to Washington just
days before his announcement parleying for the meet. For all his efforts in
resuscitating the summit, Moon wasn’t informed of Trump’s decision in advance,
leaving him perplexed and South Korea felt snubbed. Terming the decision as “very
regrettable and unfortunate” Moon hoped that both countries would resolve
their differences “through more direct and close dialogue between the
leaders”.
DPRK’s unusually conciliatory
approach Kim Kye-Gwan’s unrestrained response of “the first meeting wouldn’t
solve all, but solving even one at a time in a phased way would make the
relations get better rather than making worse” has struck right cords with
American allies-Japan and South Korea. Ever since cancellation, it is believed
that a flurry of diplomatic rallying carried out by South Korea lead to an apparent
U-turn. On May 26th
Trump took to twitter again stating, “We are having very
productive talks with North Korea about reinstating the summit which, if it
doesn’t happen, will likely remain in Singapore on the same date, June 12th,
and if necessary will be extended beyond that date”.
Unperturbed by Trump rescinding the
summit, Kim held two-hour impromptu talks in the demilitarized zone of North
Korean Panmunjom village. As per Presidential Blue Palace news report from
Seoul, both leaders discussed ways to implement Panmunjom Declaration, for
deepening inter-Korean ties and to ensure a successful DPRK-US summit. Clearly
playing hard diplomacy Kim not only convinced South Korea of its firm
commitment but forced Trump to relinquish his “temper tantrums”.
In run up to the summit, as a
confidence building measure, DPRK released three American citizens. In the
following week, DPRK announced that the regime is no longer interested in
building nuclear weapons and invited international journalists to watch
dismantling or closing ceremony of lone nuclear site Punggye-ri. Some
strategists dismissed Kim’s diplomatic gesture as mere symbolism while others
were sceptical whether he would ever agree to relinquish nuclear weapons. Amidst
this symbolism, staunch supporters of Trump nominated him for a Nobel Peace
Prize and Trump administration released a commemorative coin featuring Trump
and Kim against the background of their respective national flags. Intriguingly, South Korea and US hasn’t
scaled down the annual aerial exercises Max Thunder which included a nuclear
strategic bomber provoking DPRK on May 16th. Irked Kim, cancelled
his upcoming talks with South Korea.
But what emerged as the sore point
was American enthusiasm of thrusting down DPRK’s throat the doctrine of CIVD-Comprehensive
Irreversible Verifiable Disarmament. America insisted on elimination of all
nuclear weapons upfront along its Libyan Model. Unlike Libya which wasn’t even
close to making nuclear weapons, North Korea has developed massive nuclear
infrastructure. Since 2003 it has conducted dozens of missiles and nuclear
tests, developed a thermonuclear bomb and successfully tested an
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of reaching mainland America. Having
built significant nuclear arsenal and assured of strategic nuclear deterrent,
Kim announced a moratorium on nuclear weapons. He made extensive diplomatic
forays to bring nation from decades of isolation and sanctions regime. Kim reiterating
his stance towards denuclearisation stitched close diplomatic relations with
South Korea and even met President Xi twice. But during his outreach, Kim has
always stressed on denuclearisation of entire Korean peninsula, implying that
America should pull out forces and assets from South Korea. Besides, he desired
for a synchronized and phased approach with America making some concessions to
address the security concerns of Kim. Cognizant of the brutal ending of the
Libyan Supremo Muhammar Gadhafi, in 2011 when he assumed reigns, Kim believed
that relinquishing nuclear weapons in exchange for American guarantees for
investment and security assurances was just a trap.
To utter dismay of Kim, who had
concerns regarding national security and continuance of his regime in power,
hawkish National Security Advisor’s references to “Libya Model” for
negotiations with DPRK stoked fresh suspicions. Talking about North Korea, Trump
ascertained that if DPRK agrees to denuclearise, “he will get
protections that would be very strong” else grave situations will entail.
He warned, “that model (Libya Model) would take place if we don’t make a
deal. The Libyan Model isn’t the model we have at all. In Libya we decimated
that country. There was no deal to keep Gadhafi”. While secretary of state,
Mike Pompeo adopted a diplomatic route to deal with Pyongyang, overriding his
gestures, Bolton adopted a fiery rhetoric. Terming Bolton’s references as “highly
sinister” Vice-President Kim Kye-Gwan said, “The World knows too well
that our country is neither Iraq nor Libya, which have miserable fates. It
is absolutely absurd to compare nuclear weapons state DPRK to Libya which has
been at the initial stage of nuclear development. If the US is trying to drive
us into a corner to force our unilateral nuclear abandonment, we no longer be
interested in such a dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to
DPRK-US summit”. In the meanwhile, even Vice-President in his interview of
Fox Channel said that DPRK might end up like Libya if deal is not struck.
Angered by Pence’s comments, DPRK’s vice foreign affairs minister Choe said, “As
a person involved in US affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant
remarks from the mouth of US vice-president. In case US offends us against our
good will and clings to unlawful and outrageous acts, I will forward a
suggestion to our supreme leadership for reconsidering the DPRK-US summit”.
The inclement narrative set by America’s hawkish officials, weeks before the
summit has clearly touched raw nerves of DPRK making them more suspicious of
America. Together these imprudent remarks escalated the tension between both
countries setting the stage for calling off the summit.
Mike Pompeo’s Korean diplomacy has
raised new doubts in American allies- South Korea and Japan who were believed
to understand that US is interested in annihilation of long range missiles
leaving them in a lurch. Trump’s dubious approach of ignoring concerns of
allies is withering their trust and faith in America, prompting them to forge
strong ties with proactive power centres like China and Russia. Trump’s
flip-flop clearly indicates that America is not having a concrete agenda for
negotiations as indicated by sources. With Singapore summit back on track,
Japanese Prime Minister Abe who is concerned about the DPRK’s short-range
missiles will meet Trump before the summit. South Korean President Moon is
likely to join the summit, raising the hopes of a possible trilateral summit.
Moon’s effort to resurrect the negotiations is testimony to his supreme efforts
to bring peace to Korean peninsula enduring the shadow of hostilities since
1953. Despite Moon’s massive diplomatic efforts, Strategists believe that Trump
may not sign the Korean peace treaty before DPRK’s denuclearisation deal.
The dream of restoring peaceful
regime in Korean peninsula need concerted efforts of not only both Koreas but
all other stakeholders in the region. As a precondition for peninsular peace,
America might be forced to pull its personnel from South Korea. This move might
trigger Japan to follow a similar script. Together, this might necessarily
reduce American foot print in Asia-Pacific. Clearly this can embolden China
which is rapidly expanding its presence in the region. Trump’s off-cuff
policies, fleeting approaches with regards to denuclearisation of DPRK needs a
serious rethinking supported by a robust policy.
As of now, US delegation has
reached Pyongyang to prepare for the summit. While DPRK seems to be wanting America to make
similar concessions it made to India, which is rather too much to ask. Trump’s
distorted diplomatic approach will invariably turn DPRK into another Pakistan.
Further while Trump is keen on
dismantling nuclear paraphernalia of DPRK, a report released
by experts suggests that this whole process might take at least 10 years. Hence
instead of an intrusive inspections and punitive economic sanctions, a phased
approach synchronised with reciprocal concessions may be the best alternative.
Report adds that mere assurances on paper may not suffice and perhaps “substantial
period of coexistence and interdependence” might lead to logical
denuclearisation.
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