Cumulative setbacks in the Lok Sabha bypolls have
reduced BJP numbers from 282 in 2014 elections to less than 272, short of the
magic majority in Lok Sabha currently. In the just concluded bypolls, BJP and
alliance managed to win two out of the four seats. While bypolls may not be a
true reflection of larger electoral picture but BJP must read the writing on
the wall. Unlike 2014 elections, where BJP romped home victory under the spell
of a massive Modi wave, 2019 is going to be very
difficult. Decade long UPA regime has left Indian electorate frustrated,
disappointed and the aspiring class found a saviour in Modi and rewarded him
with absolute majority. But things have changed ever since.
Psephologists always advocate that electoral memory is
poor and unfortunately, in the past four years, Indians seems to have largely
forgotten the ruthless plunder of Congress. With Judiciary progressively
delaying outstanding corruption cases against Congress leaders, the devious
record of large scale loot through various scams was effectively wiped out from
public memory.
The humongous efforts made by the
Modi government to revive the huge fiscal deficit are now largely
underappreciated with economy back on track now. Hence, the issues of
development and progress are not part of electoral debates any longer. Just
like elections in the last decade, voting is now along religious, caste lines.
With opposition regrouping themselves and joining hands with the sole intent of
defeating BJP, BJP must now resort to masterly social engineering tactics to
win elections in 2019.
Congress which is steadily
eroding its electoral base is now resorting to all mean tactics. It always had
the covert support of Muslims and Christians. In the recent times, Church and
Masjid are openly defending their stances of issuing public fatwas against BJP.
In the upcoming elections, religion and caste alone will sole agendas of the
parties. While it is so regressive and absurd to even think of having elections
being fought on these paltry communal grounds, unfortunately, this is the
reality of elections in India now.
Against these oddities, Hindus on
the other hand are largely divided and they no longer believe that BJP can
address their issues. There is a palpable discontentment among Hindus,
especially among Hindus of Cultural Right. The battle for the throne is going
to be much more brutal, punitive, and brazen. Despite no allegations of
corruption, the surge in global oil prices has exacerbated the dissatisfaction
among the middle class towards BJP. In the past 48 months Modi and his team
with their unstinted commitment made rapid strides in several areas. But sadly,
Indian electorate under the spell of malicious campaigning refuse to endorse
the achievements of Modi government.
Clearly getting requisite numbers
in 2019 is going to be an uphill task for Modi and BJP cadres
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