Crisis in Yemen deepens with the killing of Abdullah Saleh

Yemen war, by and large remains the least underreported humanitarian crisis for various reasons. The poorest Gulf country suffered massive death, starvation, and devastation. Latest UNICEF report indicate that a child dies every 10 minutes in Yemen, around 400,000 children are at risk of starvation and another 2.2million are in dire need of urgent care. Ever since February 2015, over 10,000 people were killed and 3.3 million were displaced. But still Yemen war shows no signs of respite with warring factions stubbornly reluctant to engage in peaceful negotiations. On December 4^th former President Abdullah Saleh, who ruled Yemen for 33 years was killed by the Houthi rebels. On Saturday, Saleh, who had allied with the Houthi rebels publicly announced his willingness to engage in talks with Saudi Arabia to end fighting and blockade in Yemen. It is now believed that Houthi’s angered by the pro-Arab stance of Saleh have launched rocket propelled grenade and attacked his car killing him and his personal security guard.

Establishment of Unified Yemen

Because of its fertile lands, vast coast line and proximity to sea, both Ottoman Kings and the British eyed Yemen. The British successfully gained control over the Aden located along the Red Sea in 1839 before opening of the Suez Canal for strategic purposes. While parts of North Yemen were annexed by the Ottoman Empire in 1500s which gained independence after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. Soon the Northern Yemen was taken over by the Zaydis represented by Imam Yahya. He signed treaties with various tribes in the region culminating in the recognition of Yemen as sovereign state. In the meanwhile, minor skirmishes between Saudi Arabian state formed in 1932 and Yemen tribes in the South snow-balled into a full-fledged war. Yemen and Saudi Arabia signed a treaty in 1934 that ended the war, but Saudi Arabia annexed three provinces it won during the fighting. Ever since Saudi Arabia feared about the security of its southern borders.

After the assassination of Yahya in 1948, Ahmad bin Yahya became Imam of Yemen. He was an inconsistent ruler and forged alliances with China, Russia and Egypt who provided finances and military help in his attempts to drive away British from Aden. After his death in 1962, he was succeeded by his son Muhammad al-Badr who was ousted in a military coup. Abdullah Saleh who steadily rose to higher ranks military was instrumental in the removal of King al-Badr. This coup reduced the dominance of the Royalists designated as “sayyids”, whose origins can be traced back to Mohammed Prophet. Consequently, all the Northern tribes who supported Badr lost significance. This change of regime led to the establishment of Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) or North Yemen. By 1969, Saleh became major and led troops of YAR backed by Egypt against the royalist forces backed by Saudi Arabia and Jordan leading to the North Yemen war and was appointed as governor of Taizz in 1977. After the assassination of Ahmed bin Hussain Al-Ghasmi, President of YAR, Saleh was elected by parliament as the President of YAR in 1978. Saleh always had an unstinted support of two major tribes-Sanhan and Hamdan.

Around the same time in 1967, the British withdrew from Aden and Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) or South Yemen was formed which adopted communist form of government. PDRY established close ties with Soviet Union, Cuba, China and Palestine. Due to massive crackdown on the dissidents by the Marxists, thousands fled to North Yemen. Clashes erupted between the North and South Yemen in 1972. Saudi Arabia brokered cease fire restored peace.  For the next decade, North and South Yemen indulged in intermittent wars. With the weakening of Soviet Union, South Yemen agreed for unification. As per agreed terms and conditions, Abdullah Saleh became the President of Republic of Yemen and leader of South Yemen Ali Salman al-Baidh became the vice-president in 1990.

Saleh’s Political Life

Saleh won the first parliamentary elections held in 1993. Soon, Parliament unanimously promoted him to the post of Field-Marshal. All Muslim majority countries have three centers of power- head of state, military and Imam/Priest. After his elevation to highest position in military, Saleh, already a head of the state enjoyed unparalleled authority and power. In the Presidential elections of 1999, he obtained an overwhelming majority whereby he extended the tenure of President from five years to seven years. His tenure as the President for 33 years is best termed as Kleptocracy for he plundered several billions. A UN report pegs his personal fortune as $60 billion. Having mastered the art of outmaneuvering political rivals Saleh remained in power for over three decades and inept financial management has reduced the country to tatters. Inadequate government funding choked engines of growth and problems festered in the country. North Yemen, home to sayyid dynasties alleged discrimination. Poverty, unemployment soon triggered public angst. Houthi family (it is one of the most prominent sayyid dynasties) or the Ansar-Allah Islamic religious-political group, under the leadership of Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, spearheaded anti-government protests leading to eruption of clashes in 2004. In the subsequent military raids by Yemeni military Hussein al-Houthi was assassinated. His death strengthened the resolve of the Northern tribes paving way for armed insurgency against government led by Abdul Malik al-Houthi. With time, Houthi Movement spread extensively in the North Yemen.

In the meanwhile, Saleh who initially pledged not to contest in the Presidential elections 2006, made a massive flip-flop and won the elections with much lesser majority. A sinking economy, poor governance made people restless and the youth began to detest the dictatorial regime of Saleh. Legitimacy of Central government slowly declined. By 2009, terrorist outfit Al-Qaeda in Arab peninsula (AQAP) started gaining more space and settled in Southern Yemen. Simultaneously Houthi movement began to position itself as a formidable force in North Yemen.

Swept off by the promising new waves of change of 2011, the “Arab Spring”, which overturned corrupt regimes in Egypt and Tunisia Yemeni youth took to streets of Sanaa in large numbers demanding regime change. Houthi rebels unequivocally supported protesting youth. Under the heat of the relentless protests, Saleh vowed that he wouldn’t seek re-election in 2013 but people were skeptical. Protests continued and finally in November Saleh signed a deal brokered by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plan for political transition, Saleh resigned and in return sought immunity from criminal prosecution. Saleh ceded power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in February 2012. Hadi was appointed as President for a two-year period which was later extended for a year. By 2014, Yemeni leaders came up with a plan of writing new constitution and dividing the country into six provinces. UN envoy overseeing the development in Yemen insisted on instituting democratic governance based on rule of law, human rights, and equality. Believing that such a change would undermine their power, Houthis rejected the new plan, protested against the government and captured Sanaa in September 2014. Post dethronement, Saleh silently joined hands with Houthis. It was widely believed Saleh’s “hidden hand” guided Houthi’s Sanaa siege.  By January 2015, Houthis dismissed the parliament, President Hadi was forced to resign and was kept under house arrest. A revolutionary committee replaced Yemeni government. Hadi managed to flee Sanaa, exiled to Riyadh and sought Saudi Arabia’s help.

Saudi Arabia Intervention

Since 1960, Saudi Arabia is wary of Houthis cross-border skirmishes along the Southern border relentlessly devised plans to weaken Yemen regime. Indeed, it offered military and financial aid to pro-Saudi forces. Saudis considered Houthis as allies of Iran and feared their formidable rise. Raising to the call of support by Hadi, Riyadh mooted military intervention under the rationale of protecting the Arab countries from “Persian subversion”. Earlier, Saudi Arabia, invoking similar grounds, muscled in Bahrain, Yemen was no exception. Reiterating its motive of containing Iranian hegemony, in March 2015, Saudi launched “Operation Decisive Storm”. Riyadh convinced the GCC and US of the impending dangers of Iranian expansionism and won their support. The Saudi-led coalition comprising of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, and Sudan began air strikes to restore Hadi government. US provided logistics and intelligence support to the coalition. In the meanwhile, AQAP and the IS cadres who fled Levant, under the umbrella of chaos seized smaller regions in South and ramped up attacks on Aden.

Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen

Ever since, Saudi imposed curbs on movement of men and material. Trade was subverted, and economy collapsed due to land and naval siege. Indiscriminate aerial raids and bombings destroyed the infrastructure of Yemen. Public service system collapsed.  Drains choked, sewage and rubbish accumulated on the roads and the contaminants slowly leached into water supply sources leading to chronic infections. Thousands of children have thus succumbed to Cholera plunging the country into a worst humanitarian crisis. Two-thirds of Yemen population now don’t have access to drinking water. UN reports warned that urban regions of Yemen will face severe water shortages from 2018. The aid agencies are unable to reach Yemen due to the blockade imposed by Saudi-led coalition. Until unless, normalcy is restored reconstruction can’t begin. As of now, situation in Yemen reached a deadlock with no side making rapid advances nor any attempts to start peace process.

Recently, simmering differences in the tactical alliance between Saleh and Houthis became acute. A week ago, the alliance ended following which Saleh adopted a pro-Arab stand. Accusing Saleh of treason Houthi rebels killed Saleh. Political analysts believe that Saleh’s death will deepen chaos in Yemen. Despite his Machiavellian tactics, Saleh has been the only leader who led Yemen for over three decades, crushed several internecine wars, allied with western powers and deftly managed intervention of foreign forces supporting the warring factions.  Indeed, his long drawn political career was studded with abject volte-face. Saleh supported Saddam Hussain’s attack on Kuwait in 1990 and consequently suffered economic losses as Saudi Arabia deported million Yemeni workers. Wary of supporting him again, in 2003 Saleh sided with international community against Saddam. Similarly, he backed down from his pledge of not seeking re-election in 2006 and continued to remain in power till 2011. Saleh having escaped terrorist attack with 40% burns went to Riyadh for treatment in 2011 but later he spurned Saudis and allied with Houthis after losing presidency to reclaim power. Interestingly, Houthis considered Saleh as their worst enemy for ordering military raids in 2004 that killed Hussein Houthi. For long, Saleh played smart politics and switched sides with extreme ease. But the recent massive U-turn of seeking engagement with Saudi coalition has cost him his life. Angered by treacherous killing of his father, Saleh’s son Ahmed Ali Saleh called for “revenge” and asked his father’s supporters “to take back Yemen from the Iranian Houthis militias”. Saudi League and Mansour Hadi condemned killing of Saleh and continued with air strikes. Fresh reports indicate that Saudi-coalition has made its first gains by regaining coastal area controlled by Houthis. Parallels are now drawn between Libya and Yemen wherein killing of Muammur Gaddafi in October 2011 plunged Libya into a veritable abyss of chaos. Experts prophesy similar fate for Yemen.

Saleh’s poor administration, economic mismanagement badgered the economy making Yemen the poorest country in the Middle East.  But as of now, Yemen doesn’t have a single leader who can garner peoples support, keep country united and weave right alliances. His death has created a political vacuum.

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