Speculations Galore: Modi’s forthcoming visit to the US

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi, all set to travel to visit US for the fifth time to meet President Trump, intense speculations await the future of Indo-US relations. Indo-US relations reached hilt in 2015 when both nations signed “Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean Region” fortifying bilateral ties. Incidentally, the personal chemistry and bonhomie between Modi and President Obama triumphantly glued the relations between the “World’s two largest democracies”. Later with inking of LEMOA in 2016 both sides significantly expanded the scope of naval cooperation. Undeniably 123 Agreement in 2008 and Joint Strategic Vision of 2015, have infused new momentum and depth into Indo-US relations. But with US foreign policy currently undergoing a massive churn under President Trump, Modi is faced with a daunting challenge of working out renewed bilateral paradigm.

Unprecedented geopolitical revelations have changed the contours of World order. Erstwhile dominance of a lone super power is now making way for multipolar world. These changes superbly coincided with change of leadership in the US. Ever since assuming Presidency, Trump has navigated uncharted paths that were antithetical to basic precincts of the US. Riding on doctrine of “American First”, Trump pulled US out of the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) leaving all other nations in lurch. As President Elect, irked China due to a telephonic conversation with Taiwanese President, a move hailed by strategic experts as tough posturing. But soon patched up things with Beijing a promise of honoring “One China Policy”.  His infamous telephone diplomacy marred relations with Mexico and Australia, listless executive orders over travel bans scuttled ties with Muslim nations. In the meanwhile, Trump’s diplomatic messaging to anxious heads of states most of them allies like Japan, Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, and adversaries like China who made a bee-line to White House surprised strategic experts. Intriguingly, baring Japan leaders of friendly European leaders received a lukewarm response. Though Trump accused China of “raping American economy” and “currency manipulator”, he extended a warm reception to President Xi by hosting him at his private resort Mar-a-Lago, Florida. In fact, Trump ordered air strikes against Syria in response to Chemical weapons usage at a time he was hosting President Xi in US. Emboldened by this bluster, he unleashed MOAB (mother of all bombs) against IS (Khorasan) in Afghanistan. Impromptu air strikes against Syria widened the schisms between US and Russia while heightened military action reflected misplaced priorities of Trump administration. These audacious actions of Trump were in sharp contrast to his campaign call of softening stance toward Russia and condemnation of Obama administration’s military intervention in Syria. Interestingly, Trump’s appeasement of China has close underpinnings to his business establishment. American media agencies indicated that Trump’s placatory tone in early February can be traced to obtaining approval for Trump trademarks in China. His overt friendly gestures towards President Xi was an outcome of minor trade concessions offered by Beijing in financial sector investments and US beef exports. In fact, both China and Saudi Arabia found a way with Trump by cultivating back channel contact with son-in-law Jared Kushner. Kushner and Ivanka Trump have huge business interests in China.

Trump’s offer of jointly working with Sunni-NATO to crush terrorism was catalyzed by the massive $110 billion military deals between US and Saudi Arabia. Enamored by the robust deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump joined the Saudi-led chorus in isolating Qatar for which he even claimed the credit. A week later Qatar and US signed $12 billion agreement for purchase of 36 F-15 fighter jets. This deal supposed to create 60,000 US jobs in 42 states eventually forced the US defense department to issue a stinging rebuke to Saudi Arabia questioning the justification for imposing embargo on Qatar. Trump’s actions and tone have so far indicated that he is highly transactional and that state and defense departments are following different tacks. Till now US presidents irrespective of party affiliations, religiously followed well-laid out foreign policy but Trump refuses to abide orthodox policy frameworks. Interestingly while Western media left no stone unturned in drawing parallels between Modi and Trump labeling them as Uber nationalists. With time, Modi acclaimed reputation of a statesman while Trump’s insinuating volte-face posited him as a maverick. 

Modi upcoming meeting with Trump is complicated by his ludicrous allegations of developing countries like India benefitting by Paris Climate Accord while announcing America’s withdrawal from the 2015 treaty. His infamous decision not only put America together with two other countries that refused to sign the accord- Nicaragua and Syria but also elicited scorn from foreign policy observers who sharply criticized the irresponsible remarks of Trump. While justifying his decision, Trump said, “For example, under the agreement, China will be able to increase emissions by a staggering number of years-13. They can do whatever they want for 13 years. Not us. India makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries”. He added, “China will be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants. So we can’t build the plants, but they can according to this agreement. India will be allowed to double its coal production by 2020. Think of it: India will be allowed to double its coal production. We’re supposed to get rid of ours. Even Europe is allowed to continue construction of coal plants”. By singling out India, Trump had immodestly undermined India’s painstaking efforts of complying with the targets set by Paris Accord. Issues of climate change, conservation of nature have been on the top tier of Modi’s agenda who co-authored a book, “Convenient Action-Continuity for Change” which was released along sidelines of Paris Summit. Modi’s concerted push for renewables and launch of International Solar Alliance (ISA) are testimony to India’s towards Climate change. Hence unlike in the past under Trump, India can’t jointly work together on climate change. But both leaders can enhance cooperation on issues like space exploration, counter terrorism, intelligence sharing, cyber security, security realm and energy cooperation.

Amidst wide spread concerns of personal rapport between both countries, ongoing geopolitical flux impels both countries to expand strategic cooperation. Though India is rapidly forging ties with like-minded countries to counter the overwhelming hegemony of China, in the region, US concurrence is inevitable for any middle-countries grouping. World is privy to the fact that inability of Obama administration furthered strategic rise of China. Now, Trump’s reluctance to assume the traditional role of World’s policeman has weakened American stature. Even Obama’s doctrine of pivot to Asia paralyzed. Dragon’s strangle hold had engulfed India’s neighboring countries and all the South East Asian countries have drifted into Chinese Orbit. Burgeoning Chinese aggression is inimical to India. India and US share common concerns with respect to China. India should thus, aspire to strengthen strategic cooperation with US to have greater command over Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To play the role of security provider in the IOR and to mitigate the looming threats of belligerent neighbors on both fronts, India must upgrade military capabilities. US is now India’s largest arms supplier. With India’s arms requirements set to grow Trump should be happy about upcoming arms deals. In this regard, India should push offer of co-production, which can not only create jobs in US but also fits Modi’s “Make in India” initiative. Already, Trump’s press secretary Sean Spicer hinted possible dovetailing of “Make America Great Again” and “Make in India”. Unlike European countries, India is not dependent on US for security issues. Since India will pay up for its security, Trump should have no qualms in expanding security cooperation.

Though Trump administration announced hardening of stance towards Pakistan and discussed expansion of drone attacks and withholding aid and downgrading its status as a major non-NATO ally, US officials are skeptical about the plausibility of such an approach. India should wait for situation to unfold with bated breath since Trump is a manifestation of unpredictability.

Presently, Trump’s quick turnarounds, double standards, ruthless deal making obsession is disrupting the World order with America’s close allies forced to reconsider their relations with the US under him. White House staff is working overtime to defend the irresponsible statements of the President. Crucial vacancies are not yet filled. Administration is not yet even-keeled. The divergence between the state and defense establishment is widening with every passing day. Meanwhile, reports of Trump camp’s alleged links with Russia and other scandals is taking away the focus of White House from core issues. With deep state mulling the prospect of instituting serious investigations against Trump, his term might be marred with serious disruptions. Modi should effectively seek cooperation in areas of mutual interest that are in line with whims of exceptionally transactional Trump. But, Modi must reach out to American business community, Indian Diaspora and other like-minded entities for building long term strategic partnership.

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