Seventy-year-old time-tested Indo-Russian diplomatic
relations withstood several affectations.
But drifting Indo-Russian relations eliciting far-fetching
interpretations with Moscow’s increased closeness with Islamabad coming under
intense scrutiny. With the global order tending to be more multilateral, a
feature largely accelerated by the inward-looking US, the random cacophony of
realignments is touching a new crescendo. Resurgent Russia’s desperate moves to
globally position itself and wield a significant influence in ongoing
narratives is adding more noise to the chaotic tussle of global rebalancing of
powers. While India has every reason to be touchy about Russo-Pakistan
relations, strategists by and large observe that such ties are largely tactical
and not strategic. Propelled by deep ambition to be more relevant, Russia is
rolling out a strategy to reduce western imprint in Afghanistan. Instead of
taking shots at Taliban who is threatening the peace and security of
Afghanistan, is seeking the intervention of Pakistan to reinstate peace along
with China. Till now Russia-China-Pakistan held three trilateral consultations
so far to review the situation of Taliban. US reports even claim that Russia is
arming Taliban. Trilateral meetings are now seriously mulling the prospect of
working towards removing the names of dreaded Taliban leaders from the list of
sanctioned persons as Russia fledging IS(Khorasan) as the real threat. This
approach of working with Taliban is against basic precincts of India’s
Afghanistan policy.
In the recent past, Russia significantly ramped up military
cooperation with Pakistan actualized by sale of four Mi-35 helicopters. This
was followed by joint narcotic exercises by both navies and first military
exercise initially planned in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region that
coincided with Uri-attack. While India was contemplating a stiff action against
Pakistan for Uri, despite India’s objections Russia went ahead with bilateral
exercises. Later, Russian officials clarified that Moscow will not undermine
Indian interests. Additionally, Russian reluctance on including the Pakistan
terror groups in BRICS joint statement against terrorism and Moscow’s support
for CPEC, flustered India.
In 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden, Pakistan’s
ties with US began to wilt, Islamabad decided to broaden foreign policy and
rapprochements to Moscow. Ever since, Pakistan started cultivating ties with
Russia. Russia which was stifled by economic sanctions of the West responded
favorably to Pakistan by selling attack cum transport helicopters. Battling the
economic woes, Putin while igniting nationalism passions, stepped into Chinese
Orbit. A vigorously ambitious Putin though irked by China’s increased
penetration into Central Asia, its sphere of influence, neck deep financial
crisis prompted him to toe in line with President Xi. By 2014, resilient Russia
began to reshape its geopolitical ambitions through the Russia-China-Pakistan
axis. Going by the dictum “there are no
permanent friends or enemies but permanent interests” Russia is now energetically
recalibrating bilateral ties to reclaim international influence and reach.
Despite seeping misunderstandings in the long standing
bilateral ties, Prime Minister Modi steadfast in his approach, days before his
visit to St. Petersburg, warmly reached to Russians recapitulating the 70 yrs
of diplomatic relations. In an article, he wrote to Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya
Gazette, Modi reinforced that “India-Russia
relations have been the one constant in the World that has changed dramatically
since 1947. They have withstood test of time and grown from strength to
strength”. He richly praised Russia’s invaluable in India’s economic and
industrial development and held ode to Moscow’s military assistance, deep
cooperation in sensitive spheres like missile technology.
Indo-Russian diplomatic relations were established much before
India’s independence i.e., April 1947. Though the relations had initial
glitches around 1950s, both countries developed exceptional camaraderie by 1961
after Russia broke off with China. Bilateral ties touched new heights with the
signing of Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in 1971. Sudden collapse
of Soviet Union, in 1991, hit bilateral ties and both parties started looking towards
the West for support. India was forced to reorient foreign policy. In 1992, India
launched Look East Policy, sought relations with the West and Israel. But in
1993, reinstating new energy into bilateral ties, India and Russia reaffirmed
inviolability of peace treaty. In 2000, both countries signed “Declaration of
India-Russia Strategic Partnership” unveiling a new chapter in bilateral ties.
Ever since both countries expanded scope of cooperation and fortified the
relationship with annual summits. By 2010, strategic partnership was elevated
to “Special and Privileged Partnership”. Modi on his third leg of Europe tour
(from May 31st to June 2nd) landed in St. Petersburg for
the 18th annual India-Russia Summit meeting.
Last year, along the sidelines of BRICS summit at Goa during
the 17th Annual Indo-Russian Summit meet, Modi and Putin agreed to
evolve a roadmap celebrating achievements and planning future trajectory of the
close partnership. Closely after Modi-Putin, bilateral talks at Konstantin
Palace, both leaders unveiled a “Vision
document for 21st century” pledging to build an “energy bridge” to
expand energy cooperation in nuclear, hydrocarbon, hydel and renewable energy
sources. In line with provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement, both countries
agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions through wider use of natural gas. Amidst
perceptions of crinkles in Indo-Russian relations, the much-awaited General
Framework Agreement and Credit Protocols for units 5 and 6 of Kudankulam
Nuclear Power Plant was successfully concluded. The MoU for development of
nuclear energy was signed in 1988 by Rajiv Gandhi and Mikhail Gorbachev for
construction of 8 reactors. It was reduced to six in 2008. Adding a fresh chapter
to hydrocarbon cooperation, India and Russia will now jointly explore the
Arctic Shelf.
Bed rock of Indo-Russian relations has been defence
cooperation. For the past five decades, Russia remained largest military
supplier for India. Only recently, India began to diversify its defence
imports. Contrastingly, bilateral trade has slipped from $11 billion to $ 8
billion. Countries have set a target of $30 billion by 2025 which seems
unreachable going by present trends. Enhancing economic cooperation through
investments and expanding trade is on the agenda now. To facilitate expansion
of trade, negotiations are expedited on Free Trade Agreement between India and
EEU (Eurasian Economic Union). Leaders contemplated the prospect of developing
a new credit rating agency which is more transparent. Further both countries agreed
to expand scope of cooperation in various areas like space technology,
aviation, agriculture, ICT, robotics, nanotechnology, pharmaceuticals, skill
development, development of generic marketing programs for Diamonds, ship
building, high speed railways and food processing. India and Russia five
agreements. Days before Modi’s visit to Russia, India gave special waiver to
sanction hit Russian defence entities to secure military tenders. To foster
military to military cooperation both countries will continue to hold joint
land and sea military exercises. Annual military exercise INDRA-2017 will
witness tri-services exercise. Russia reaffirmed support for India’s candidature
to the reformed UNSC and admission into NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group).
Allaying India’s fears of Moscow’s Islamabad dalliance, Putin
reiterated that “We don’t have such deep
cooperation in sensitive defensive spheres (like missiles) with any country of
the World and we do have such cooperation from India”. Replying to a
question at press meet, Putin stressed ties with other countries wouldn’t
affect Russia-Indian relations. In the joint Press conference, Modi and Putin unequivocally
condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations. Sending a stern message to
Pakistan, St Petersburg declaration pronounced “we are convinced that the unprecedented spread of this threat requires
decisive and collective response on the part of entire global community without
double standards and selectivity, in accordance with International Law and UN
charter”. Further Modi said that both India and Russia hold similar views
on terrorism, whether in Afghanistan, Middle-East or Asia-Pacific. Putin
concurring with Modi on Afghanistan is particularly reassuring since Russian
stance has been particularly disconcerting for India recently. With respect to
Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, Putin asserted that, “no matter where the threat comes, it is unacceptable and we will always
support India in its fight against terrorism”.
Aside, intensifying ties, fostering soft power is an
indispensable aspect of Modi’s Doctrine. In his three-day long visit, Modi paid
homage to martyrs at the Piskarevskoye Memorial Cemetry, presented “Ugra Kujur”
sacred Buddhist Treatises to Head Priest of Datsan Guznechoinel Buddhist Temple,
visited State Hermitage Museum and attended the first ever collective meeting
of Governors of 16 regions of Russia. Modi announced that a road in National
capital is named after Russian Ambassador Alexander M Kadakin, friend of India.
On June 2nd, Modi attended St. Petersburg
International Economic Forum (SPIEF) dubbed as “Russian Davos” as Guest of
Honor. Addressing business delegations from over 60 countries Modi hard-sold
India and wooed investors. Indicating that India is designated as top three
favored investment destinations by rating agencies, Modi apprised foreign
investors of opportunities galore in India. Reiterating the slew of measures
introduced by his government in the past three years, Modi spoke about GST
(Goods and Services Tax) aimed at dismantling the interstate trade barriers and
appealed Russian investors to participate in Make in India, Skill India and
Digital India. Modi bulldozed the “doctrine of good and bad terrorism” and
urged the world to join the fight against terrorism. Prime Minister also
reiterated India’s commitment towards climate change. President Trump’s
announcement of pulling out from Paris Climate Accord alarmed the global
community. Modi’s renewed emphasis and India’s conviction towards preservation
of environment for future generations at International Forum thus assumes
greater significance.
Deftly replying to the questions posed by Megyn Kelly what
was described as “light-hearted” interview at SPEIF, Modi avoided a diplomatic
wrangle on the multilateral forum. Displaying a rare acumen typical of a
seasoned diplomat, Modi put to rest lingering doubts of his intellectual
perspicacity. Modi concluded Russia visit on a high note in aplomb and style.
He characteristically pulled off what can be termed another Madison Square
Garden kind of event, though of not of same scale and reach. While Modi
enthralled the audience with his eloquence at Madison, SPEIF interview
generated similar buzz among the twitterati. Modi smartly handled controversial
questions, avoided making barbed references. Though he demurred, he comfortably
articulated Indian position.
Currently, the Asian arena is dominated by devotedly
ambitious leaders like President Xi, Vladimir Putin and equally tenacious Modi.
But unlike China and India, Russia is keen on challenging the Western interests
across the globe. China avowed aggressiveness have finally elevated it to a
status of ‘super power in waiting’. India, a responsible power, aspires to be a
middle-income country. Economically shrunken Russia having tamed Iran, Syria
and Turkey is leaning on China to position itself. (At the same time Russia has
enough leverage in North Korea and Libya). But now Russia is becoming
increasingly suspicious of Chinese intentions. Moreover, like India, Russia
also has unresolved territorial issues with China. Though declining US command,
might tighten Sino-Russian embrace, the provisional Russia-China alliance may
not be indissoluble. Also, President Trump’s inimical and uncharitable
references towards India are casting a shadow on blooming Indo-US relations.
Putin’s response to US presidential hack is bound to grievously damage
US-Russian relations. In this background, Prime Minister Modi has reached out
to Russia with full vigor. Though it may be too early to conclude, Modi seems
to have struck right cords with Russia.
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