Killing of Russian Ambassador heralds new Geopolitical Predicaments

Russian envoy to Turkey, Andrey Karlov was shot dead at photo exhibition event by a gunman at Ankara on November 19^th. The Turkish off-duty gunman, Mervut Mert Altintas, was a member of Ankara riot-squad, was immediately neutralized after assassination. With this Turkey as foreclosed an opportunity of finding the reason behind the killing.

At a time when Middle East is going through calumnious power shift, an incident of this intensity was believed to spark a diplomatic crisis. Melvut who gained access to the Posh Art Gallery, shot the envoy just few minutes after his opening remarks. He shouted, “Allahu-Akbar” and yelled “Don’t forget Syria, don’t forget Aleppo”. Some reports indicated that he also said “You will not taste safety until our fields are safe. Only death can get me out of here. Whoever has a share of tyranny will pay for this one by one”. The impassioned outburst of gunman besides signifying surge of radicalization, was an act of retribution against Russia for bombing Aleppo.

Immediately after the attack, President Erdogan and President Putin put up a show of unity and condemned it as a “provocative” terrorist act. President Putin reacted very soberly and exhorted it as a calibrated attempt to derail the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. Also, Putin didn’t want to jeopardize the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey the next day. But as expected, the World didn’t erupt into World War-III. It is now widely believed that Russia will use this incident to extract concessions from Turkey. While the nature of the concessions or rather arm-twisting are not imminent, Russia is keen on capitalizing the assassination of Karlov. Indeed, Turkey was forced to retract its reservations at the joint meeting of foreign ministers at Moscow. Further, it was agreed by three countries that regime change in Syria is not a priority.

Turko-Russian historical geopolitical rivalry

Social media was abuzz with concerns of World war III after Karlov’s killing. Striking parallels are drawn to the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand that triggered the first World War. Indeed, sceptics were right in portending a serious trouble because of frayed Russo-Turkey relations. Meanwhile, historians cited that current scenario reminded them of killing of Russian Consul-General by an Albanian in Ottoman army in 1903. The assassination which could have otherwise propelled both parties (Ottoman Empire and Russia) to war but for Sultan Abdulhamid-II of Ottoman Empire, who deftly averted it. Sultan had to make several concessions to deter Russian retaliation. This paved way for Russia expansion till to the rim of Black Sea. Sultan indeed followed the trail closely and ensured that the Albanian Soldier received capital punishment.

The long history of Turko-Russian relations endured varying trajectories. For the most part of late 16^th Century to early 20^th century both countries had troubled relations and were engaged in several Russo-Turkish Wars. In fact, on December 19^th 1853, (the day Russian Envoy was shot dead) Ottoman Empire declared war against Russia. Both empires gradually evolved as torch bearers for different civilizations. Russia championed the causes of Orthodox Church and Ottoman Empire became the seat of Islam. Russian expansion reached a hilt with Balkan wars that preceded World War I. Over a period, the conflicts became bloodied and both Empires committed heinous genocides. Ottoman’s carried out mass deportations and killings of Armenians while Russian Czars butchered Turks. By 19^th century, Russia fomented nationalism in Balkans which culminated in the birth of nations in the Macedonian region. They assisted various liberation movements in the East Europe which eventually flared up into World War I. Gradually Ottoman’s stronghold over its Empire slackened and its cosmopolitan fabric of Secularism eroded.

Relations between the two countries took a new turn when Bolshevik Soviets offered assistance to Turkish revolutionaries during the Turkish war of Independence and signed a Non-aggression pact in 1925. Turkey under Mustafa Kemal warmed up to Russia. Turkish Republic took developmental loans from Russia in 1932 and instituted five-year economic and industry developmental plans modelled after the five-year plans of Russia. Good relations continued until Joseph Stalin demanded that Soviet be allowed to join in defense of Straits of Turkey. (Russia wanted to have access to Mediterranean Sea). The Montreaux Convention of 1936 ruled that Turkey can remilitarize the straits. Throughout the World War-II Turkey remained neutral. But it allowed passage of German Ships through the Straits. Irked Russia by March 1945 sought the repealing of Non-aggression pact and laid claims over the Straits and a part of eastern Turkey which it held between 1878 and 1921. Stalin reiterated his demand at Potsdam Declaration but Truman Doctrine overruled it and by 1952 Turkey joined NATO. Soon Turkey became an armed bulwark of NATO. With the end of cold war and subsequent collapse of Soviet Union, relations between Russia and Turkey improved. Bilateral trade increased manifold with Russia becoming largest supplier of oil and natural gas while Turkey was the choicest tourist destination for Russians.

Russian intervention in Syrian changed the dynamics of bilateral ties presently. Turkey was infuriated when Russia extended military support to Bashar al-Assad.  President Erdogan was among the frontrunners who desperately rooted for departure of Assad. With two countries taking opposite sides, the subsequent friction resulted in shot down of Su-24 Russian fighter jet for alleged airspace violation resulting in the death of a Russian pilot in November 2015. This inimical development created international panic. But surprisingly, annihilating fears of disastrous aftermath both leaders together climbed down.

Turkey at that point picked up a tiff with US and its relations Europe too nose-dived after its hopes of getting into EU evaporated. Russia on the other hand, bearing the brunt of economic sanctions due to Crimean annexation aspired to strengthen its geostrategic positioning by making deeper forays into Middle East. Hence refrained from retaliation. Instead Russia imposed sanctions on exports from Turkey, ordered travel agents to stop conducting tours to Turkey and stopped fuel supply. It designated Turkey as the only country in Middle East aiding IS. Subsequently, Turkish businesses with Russian tie-ups suffered. IS launched a series of brutal attacks on Turkey from the beginning of 2016. Its approach towards Syria has tilted a little bit. The acrimony with Russia was short-lived. By June 2016, both leaders exchanged telephone calls. Erodogan visited Moscow showing signs of rapprochement. Putin on his visit to Turkey in October announced a gas pipeline between Russia and Turkey.

On the other hand, a series of swift transformations significantly changed the domestic architecture of Turkey. The founding father, Mustafa Kemal envisioned a secular framework for Turkey. The military was endowed with the responsibility of upholding the guiding principles of secularism and democracy. Post-World War-II unlike other Muslim countries, Turkey tried to emulate the Western ideologies and became party to NATO and fervently aspired to enter EU. Despite, US’s exhortations, Europe was averse to the idea. This caused severe resentment among the Turks. Slowly it began to find a new identity for itself and was getting drawn into the cultural moorings of the Middle East countries. Conservative Islam began to slowly gain ground in Turkey.

Erosion of secular credentials was galvanized with Erdogan at the helm of affairs. Turkey slowly tilted towards Islam. Erdogan’s authoritarian regime began to unleash illiberal policies which ranged from curtailing freedom of press to prioritizing conservative Islamic practices. Soon this led to a failed coup in July to topple Erdogan regime. Under the ruse of punishing the officials involved in the coup, Erdogan successfully purged off all political enemies from the military and other crucial administrative posts. The West severely condemned Erdogon’s purge. So, he carefully steered the foreign policy away from the West. He instilled an anti-Western sentiment by alleging that coup was staged by Fetullah Gulen living in exile in Pennsylvania. Erdogan expressed severe discontentment towards western alliance and began drifting towards Russia and China. Erdogan by embracing Islam gained overwhelming support of Sunni Muslims for AKP (Justice and Development Party). But ever since Russia started bombarding the rebels in Syria, Sunnis were irked by Erdogan’s detente with Russia. Erdogan really have tough choices to make.

But as of now, Turkey might swiftly tow in line with Russia and use its dalliance as a bargaining chip with the US. US may not afford to lose Turkey for its strategic geographic location and for being repository of America’s strategic nuclear assets. US’s fragile alliance relations, Trump’s ambiguous stance on Assad’s regime and fervent electoral promise of attacking IS seem to give Russia upper edge. If Trump choses to join Russia in decimating IS, the dynamics of the geopolitics will take a new turn. In the meanwhile, Turkey attributed Karlov’s killing to Gulenists, began crackdown campaign and intensified extradition process of Gulen. In any case, Russia will not forget and forgive Turkey and will try to gain maximum leverage for the diplomatic embarrassment it suffered. But in all likelihood, a wavering commitment of Turkey towards NATO alliance may not bode well for the West and US in particular.

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