Indo- Nepalese relations reached a nadir following the border
blockade by agitating Madhesis in Nepal paralyzing movement of supplies between
the nations. The impending diplomatic logjam was broken by Prime Minister
Khadge Prasad Sharma Oli’s visit to India in February who rejuvenated bilateral
ties. But the unprecedented turn of events in the last fortnight spiraled into
a political crisis straining the bilateral relations once again. Situation
turned grim with Nepal government apparently cancelling visit of its first
women President Bidhya Devi Bhandari to India just 72 hours before her
departure. This was immediately followed by reports of Nepal pulling back its
envoy to New Delhi Deep Kumar Upadhyay, on charges of colluding with India.
Affronted by accusations, MEA cancelled Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
scheduled visit to Lumbini for Buddha Purnima on May 21st.
Ever since Nepal was hit by a massive earthquake on April 25th
2015, the Himalayan country seems to have plunged into a deeper abyss. The
quake of 7.9 magnitude last year has not only entailed a huge loss of lives but
only destroyed property worth of $5 billion (almost 25% of its GDP). Even
before the country could recover from the colossal loss of the natural
calamity, promulgation of the new constitution in September pushed it into
ceaseless travails of the constitutional crisis. Viewed as being highly
discriminatory the political parties representing the natives of the southern
parts of the country Madhesis, Tharus and Janajatis intensified violent
protests for repealing of certain clauses in the constitution. These groups
inhabiting the plains of the Southern part of the country have close cultural,
linguistic and traditional relations with India. Madhesis put up a strong fight
against the government and intensified the andolan that lasted for 135 long
days resulting in blockade of essential supplies, fuel and medicines from
India. India is a life line for the land locked Himalayan country and blocking of
transit routes created led to shortage of critical supplies and Nepal was
pushed into a humanitarian crisis. Nepal held India responsible for the crisis
and accused India of emboldening the agitating groups. As a matter of fact,
Nepal has to blame its inept government for failing to address the concerns of
the people living the plains. On the contrary, Oli have quickly shifted gears
and started leaning towards China. He eventually signed a transit agreement
with China for supply of fuel through Tibet to Nepal. Despite the agreement
supply of fuel from China has been erratic. These overtures of Nepal towards
China irked India.
Oli made India his first destination for a foreign visits
after holding power (a practice followed by Nepali counterparts barring a
single exception of Pushpa Kamal Dahal) to signal his eagerness to nurture
Indo-Nepal relations. In a sharp departure from the pro-Indian stance reaffirmed
by Oli in his visit to India, Oli now holds New Delhi responsible for the
internal crisis brewing within the Nepali political dispensation. The
performance of the seven month old Oli government has come under scanner
following reports of large scale corruption. Further, a review of the quake-hit
regions on the eve of its first anniversary exposed the appalling state of
affairs prevailing in the country. The abysmal living conditions and sheer
absence of reconstruction work in the devastated regions clearly reflected the
deteriorating state of affairs of the country. Despite normalization of trade
routes after the rollback of agitation in February, Nepal experienced acute
shortage of fuel and cooking gas suggesting the existence of black marketing
consequently inflation reached double digits.
At this juncture, last fortnight, Nepal was at the verge of
sinking into political crisis when the opposition threatened to topple the Left
alliance headed by Oli of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)
(CPN-UML). The opposition party Nepali Congress (NC) under the leadership of
Sher Bhadur Deuba entered into talks with the second largest party of the
coalition, Unified Communist Party of Nepal (UCPN-M) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal
aka Prachanda and the Madhesi People Right Forum, Nepal (Democratic) to pull
down the Oli government. Citing massive corruption, inability to resolve the
Madhesi issue and for failing to speed up the reconstruction of infrastructure
in the quake-hit regions. As per the agreement, UCPN-M leaded by Prachanda would
head the government with the external support from NC and Madhesi Parties. With
the political crisis surfacing in Nepal after the NC’s chief Sher Prasad
Deuba’s visit and Krishna Bhadur Mahara’s, (a close aide of Prachanda) trip to
New Delhi Oli and his aides started blaming India for plotting to topple their
government. While the opposition has tried to pull the plug off the ruling
dispensation, Maoists made sudden U-turn and temporarily averted the political
crisis. Later as per various external inputs received from Nepalese
counterparts it emerged that Maoist leader Prachanda made a sudden change of
decision under the Chinese influence. But Prachanda denounced Chinese advice in
an exclusive interview to HT. It is believed that Oli made an agreement
with Prachanda that he will not pursue war time crimes against Maoists and
promised to step down after presenting budget in Parliament. But for all the
hue and cry Nepal always had a dubious distinction of having the most unstable
governments and plagued by political instability.
While Nepal alleges to be victim of the excesses two big
geographical nations, it is ironic that Nepal invariably plays China card with
India too often. India and Nepal are historically, traditionally and culturally
related and share a deeper connect. Both countries share porous borders that
facilitate free passage of men and material without any restrictions. India
allows its Nepal counterparts to work and settle down in India. Nepal is home
to several thousands of Indian Army pensioners and Ex-servicemen. Moreover
several Nepalese work in India in various positions and India is greatest
source of remittances to Nepal. India and Nepal enjoy unparalleled camaraderie.
In spite of serious misgivings between both the countries India rushed all its
resources and launched “Operation Maitri” to assist the quake torn country. The
Modi government indeed accorded highest priority for resurrecting relations
with Nepal. He became the first prime minister to visit Nepal in 2014 after a
gap of 17 years. The volume of diplomatic engagement with Nepal which includes
two visits of the Prime Minister, five by Minister of External Affairs Sushma
Swaraj, and four by the foreign secretaries in the past two years suggests the
importance accorded by India in refurbishing its ties with Nepal. The outgoing Nepalese
ambassador opined that India is the main artery for Nepal. As a parting message
he said “politicians will keep changing but people of the two countries are connected
to heart with each other roti beti ka
rishta hai”. As Nepal started blaming India for the domestic crisis, media
is rife with reports of dwindling New Delhi’s aid to Kathmandu. MEA contested
the spurious reports and MEA confirmed that 300 crores worth funds were
disbursed.
Interestingly, Nepal seems to be happy with the excess
interventionism of China with sections of media favoring Chinese influence.
Beyond the rhetoric that Nepal currently seems to opine India as a bullying big
brother, it should realize its indispensability on India’s air space for
connecting to the external World. While Oli has been making desperate efforts
to find alternate trade transit routes through the inhospitable and mountainous
terrain of Tibet, it can be more expensive and arduous. Moreover the porous
borders of India are in sharp contrast to the strictly regulated Chinese borders.
Further, Nepal must realize that Beijing is reluctant to open Tibet for the
benefit of Nepal despite donning the role of alternative trading partner. Moreover,
with reports indicating Chinese intervention in Nepal’s political turmoil,
decades of its loud proclamations of non-interference in any country’s internal
affairs is now a myth. All these dramatic twists and turns in the Nepali
political dispensation clearly speaks volumes of growing Chinese influence on
Nepal. It must be recalled that Oli following his bilateral foreign trip to
India visited Beijing and signed several agreements. The Himalayan Times hailed
Oli’s visit to China and “celebrated it as a step to reduce Nepal’s dependence
on India”.
While smaller countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan
opine India’s paranoia over China’s growing influence in the region is
unwarranted, hegemonic rise of Beijing, undeterred maritime expansion spree and
collusion with Pakistan might have dubious repercussions. Alarming developments
in South Asia defended by China are taking a toll on India’s strategic affairs.
Checkmating India at various platforms including-vetoing India’s bid to
designate Masood Azad as terrorist at UN, stalling India’s membership to the
NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) and more recently increased deployment of troops
across LAC by China aren’t propitious signals and Delhi is increasingly wary of
China. India’s concerns over China’s growing influence in its own backyard,
isn’t thus unwarranted. But India too must learn its lessons and should refrain
from exercising diplomatic heavy-handedness. It must clearly express its
disappointment towards the discrimination meted to the Madhesis in unequivocal terms
and resist the temptation of wading into the political murky waters of Nepal.
Meanwhile, the Madhesis have intensified their protests in the capital city
Kathmandu throwing the inept Nepali government into a tizzy. Nevertheless,
Nepal must stop blaming India and should put its house in order first. Mending
ties will be in the best interest of both countries.
Indian strategists now largely endorse that Nepal is a spoilt
brat. It is a decade now, Nepal successfully trounced the entrenched Monarchy
and ushered Nepal into an era of functioning democracy. In reality little has
changed on ground, feudal autocracy was replaced by a lobbied bunch of greedy
politicians. Quake devastated Nepal received millions of funds from
international agencies and neighboring countries. More than a year later,
people are homeless and languishing in the rubble. Politicians instead of
accelerating the pace of reconstruction and rehabilitation are busy blaming
India for the domestic crisis. In the meanwhile, the new constitution with discriminatory
clauses fanned the ongoing Madheshi Rights struggle that was in vogue from
1950’s. Madhesis allege that an agreement was reached between their leaders and
former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala on Feb 28th 2008
conceding to their demand for “autonomy, inclusive constitutional safeguards,
proportional representation and federalism”. While these commitments were
honored and incorporated in the interim constitution, they were amiss in the
new constitution. In retaliation Madhesis intensified their agitation and
serious misjudgment of timing by India resulted in Nepali government blaming
India for fomenting the agitation. In January, government made new amendments
to the constitution that assured inclusivity, but the issue of federalism was
not addressed. Unhappy over government’s faulty redress, Madhesis began
agitations in Kathmandu now. Instead of
blaming India for the political ruckus, Nepal has to blame its own
opportunistic politicians and their grim political games of making and unmaking
coalitions to clinch power.
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