The Strategic Dynamic Calculus Between the US and Pakistan

Despite repeated flip-flops by Pakistan the US advertently seems to be enticed Islamabad’s famed mastery of duplicity and circumvention. Recent bilateral talks between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and President Obama and the subsequent joint statement reiterates Washington’s renewed coaxing of Pakistan. Moreover in an effort to bolster the long standing friendship between both countries the US government has proposed to sell eight F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan.

Earlier in August this year Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in collaboration with Stimson Institute released a report titled “A Normal Nuclear Pakistan”, recommending Pakistan’s candidature for a nuclear deal. Hence speculations were rife that Sharif would pitch for a civil nuclear agreement with the US similar to Indo-US civil nuclear agreement sealed in 2008. But Pakistan made it absolutely clear that it wouldn’t compromise on its tactical nuclear weapon build up which is India-centric. While attributing unbridled tactical weapon development as strategic defence mechanism (full spectrum deterrence) against India’s Cold start doctrine. Pakistan is unapologetic about its massive weapons escalation. By 2025 reports suggest that Pakistan will emerge as the fifth largest nuclear weapons power. Relentless arm building and weapon acquisition under a guise of seeking parity with its larger neighbor would critically endanger regional security. Additionally, Pakistan is a safe haven of jihadists and hasn’t ever offered guarantee of no-first use. Ideally Pakistan chose to postpone talks on nuclear deal. Consistently, the US too ruled out “any India-type civil nuclear deal with Pakistan” allaying India’s fears. The Sharif-Obama summit included talks on strategic stability in South-Asian region, nuclear security, non-proliferation, Afghanistan, trade and investment.

Interestingly, amidst burgeoning Taliban attacks on Afghanistan which even seized control of the second largest city Kunduz, US blissfully chose to ignore covert Pakistani intervention in sudden escalation of attacks. Official reports indicated that Taliban Chief Mullah Akhtar Mansour is very close to Pakistan’s security establishment which continues to extend military and logistical support to the Talibans. While officially Pakistan seems to facilitate peace talks between Afghan Talibans and government it begrudgingly patronizes covert operations whereby jihadists can reassert their control over Afghanistan following withdrawal of the US forces. The sudden spike in Taliban attacks has indeed now forced President Obama to reverse his decision of pulling off troops from Afghanistan.

During the talks, Sharif asserted that Pakistan will crackdown all the terrorist organizations designated as terrorist organizations by the UN. Ironically, the great discontent with speech and action seems to be hallmark of Islamabad. Pakistan distinctly maintains two different strategies (counterterrorism operations). While it impetuously extricates Pakistan Talibans and those against China, it relentlessly trains, arms and supports Afghan Talibans, Haqqani network and terrorist forces that target India like the Laskar E- Taiyyaba (LeT) and Jamaat-ud-Dawaa (JuD). Sharif during his current visit promised to take action against the perpetrators of terrorism in India. With both Hafeez Saeed and Lakhvi roaming freely and Pakistan successfully managing to veto the UN resolution against Zaki ur Rahman Lakhvi through its all-weather friend, empty promises hold the ground. It is worth recalling that US too hasn’t raised objection to Pakistan granting bail to Lakhvi violating the UNSC and FATF (Financial Action Task Force) requirements.  Indeed a steep increase in the unprovoked firings across the LoC in a way is an outcome of Pakistan’s inaction. While Pakistan continues to insist that it will not allow use of its territory against any country, the terrorist attacks continue unabated. The most recent Gurdaspur terrorist attacks on a police station established Pakistani involvement in areas beyond Kashmir. In fact the night-vision devices recovered from the terrorists bear US government markings warranting serious investigation regarding the procurement of the equipment.

As expected Pakistan’s interaction would be incomplete without raising K-bogey and Sharif cannily blamed India for backing off from a constructive dialogue. The US expressed its concerns about suspension of “sustained and resilient dialogue process” and called for effective mechanisms for confidence building measure and promised support. Washington reiterated the need for more bilateral engagement between the countries. Sharif during his meeting with Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and its members discussed about his four-point peace proposal (he enunciated in UN General Assembly) towards resolution of disputes with India. India had earlier made it stand clear at UNGA using “right of reply” that it intends to resolve all the outstanding issues between countries bilaterally. Undermining India’s equivocal commitment, Sharif advocated that the US is the most relevant third party to intervene on Kashmir issue. Meanwhile he deliberately avoided discussion on the brutal atrocities perpetrated in the Gilgit and Baltistan region. Conversely, Pak officials briefed the US about destabilizing role of Indian agencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Balochistan and Karachi. Pakistan has earlier submitted a dossier to the UN about India’s intervention in subversive activities. Sartaz Aziz, the foreign secretary announced that three dossiers will be shared with India during its next bilateral meeting with India. While Pakistan has been aggressively violating cease fire violations along the LoC to facilitate infiltration of terrorists into India, it is levelling baseless allegations against India when none actually exists.  In fact Pakistan’s clandestine activities stood exposed when 166 civilians including citizens of over 12 countries were killed during the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Global countries condemned the brutal attack and concurred with India’s concerns of state-sponsored terrorism exported into its land from across its western border. 

In the joint statement US acknowledged Pakistan as a vital counter terrorism partner and recognized the sacrifices made by Pakistani civilians, military personnel and law enforcement agencies. But the most distressing aspect about the Joint statement is America endorsing Pakistan’s efforts to secure finances for the construction of hydro-electric Daimer Basha and Dasu dams in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Sushma Swaraj in her UN General Assembly address categorically expressed India’s serious reservations about CPEC and reiterated that PoK is part of Indian Territory, illegally occupied by Pakistan. Pakistan has been pushing hard for construction of 4500 Megawatt hydroelectric Daimer Basha Dam as it can effectively eliminate Pakistan’s shortfall for electricity and can irrigate millions of acres of dry farmlands. When Pakistan tried to raise finances ADB, China and Russia asked Islamabad to produce a no objection certificate from India. China has tactfully kept itself away from the massive project as it will not yield immediate results and is wary of triggering water disputes between India and Pakistan. Instead China chose to build 720 MW hydropower plant in Karot, Pakistan.

Over the years Pakistan excelled art of diplomatic heralding and effectively milked the US seeking parity with India. Since 1950 Pakistan received $40 billion from the US and $23 billion after 9/11 attacks towards counter terrorism. With perpetual aid pouring in from the US, Pakistan heavily invested in bolstering insidious activities against India, accumulated conventional military weapons and built tactical nuclear weapons. Pakistan ignited America’s interest by accommodating its troops in their fight against Soviet Union in Afghanistan. US realizing the strategic importance of Pakistan turned a blind eye to its illegitimate activities and gradually it has turned into a veritable den fostering terrorism. Over the past 13 years several US soldiers were killed by the Afghan Talibans and Haqqani network that is trained and patronized by Pakistan. Alarmed by sudden spurt in terrorist massacres US tried to subvert Pakistan through diplomacy and inducements. Pakistan shrewdly utilized all the financial emoluments from US and eschewed the promise of cleansing off its territory of terrorist activities. Despite these false pretexts of Pakistan, the US continues to offer aid.

Intriguingly though Pakistan has a democratically elected Prime Minister, he is now left to fend with nominal powers. Hence the formal summit meeting between the leaders of two countries is a mere prelude to the Chief of Pakistan Army General Raheel Sharif slated visit to Washington next month and might be inconsequential too. Gen Sharif has become a cult hero in Pakistan for his gusty counter terrorism operations against Pakistan Talibans. Besides being more powerful he commands greater approval from Pakistani public. Buttressing his position Gen. Sharif pronounced that he started assuming greater role since Pakistan lacks good governance. It is an open secret that unlike India, military has an upper hand over the civilian government in foreign policy, security and sovereignty issues. While Pakistani politicians assert that prime minister is in control recently there has been spurt in military courts trying civilians for terrorism. Indeed Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Lone directly drove from airport to meet the General on his first visit to Islamabad even before meeting civilian head. Defence establishment looms large over Pakistan and they dictate the foreign policy strategies. Even Pakistan’s refusal to cut down its tactical nuclear weapons has been a unanimous decision of Gen. Sharif. When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was elected in 2013 people believed that civilian authority will be in absolute control. But all attempts of Sharif to revamp the deteriorating situation of Pakistan has been cut short with the opposition raising tirade against Sharif over allegations of vote-rigging. The agitation in 2014 has paralyzed the country in a bargain to retain his power, Sharif had to relinquish some of his powers. Thus military is now in control of defence and foreign policy. Further to strengthen army’s control over civilian authority, a recently General Naseer Khan Janjua is appointed as National Security Adviser. Once again the assertions of upholding democracy in Pakistan as envisaged in the recent Joint Statement too becomes null and void.

The bilateral talks between Sharif and President Obama might be another photo-op and so the outcomes might be misguiding. Incidentally Washington knows that its interests will be better served in charming and rewarding the decorated military heads of Pakistan. Military rules the roost. It is beyond any iota of doubt that Pakistan has consciously chosen “terrorism as instrument of state policy”. Comprehensive dialogue with civilian heads may be inconsequential in resolving outstanding issues with Pakistan.

 

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