Haritha's Musings: Strategic Importance of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Part-2

In 1950’s Pakistan in order to woo China has not only voted for its permanent membership in the UNSC but through the Sino-Pakistan Frontier Agreement in 1963 had ceded large tracts of the PoK to China under the guise of resolving territorial disputes (1). While the agreement will have no legal binding whatsoever, Pakistan ceded 5180 sq km of Northern areas of PoK which is the Trans-Karakoram tract. Entire sequence of events are the crux of the Pakistan’s foreign policy, intent on fostering deeper engagement with China, that has territorial dispute with India and convincingly won a war over India. By sealing the controversial boundary agreement with China, Pakistan not only ramped up its cooperation with Beijing but also became first non-communist nation to seal such an international agreement.

PoK because of its strategic geographical location has a great bearing in leveraging power play between Pakistan and China. The region shares borders with the Punjab and North Western Provinces of Pakistan in West, India’s Jammu and Kashmir to East, Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan in North West and Xinjiang province to the North. It has a potential of being the connecting bridge between Pakistan and China. Realizing strategic importance of PoK, Pakistan has deliberately refrained from granting it legislative autonomy.

PoK assumes immense significance with President Xi of China announcing plans for developing China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to improve the infrastructure connectivity and energy connectivity between the two countries. China has also pledged $46 billion for developing this link which forms the vital part of One Belt One Road (OBOR). Under the Karmay declaration of August 2015 representatives from China and Pakistan have pledged to “strengthen bilateral cooperation for jointly promoting economic corridor to build, harmonious better and prosperous future” (2). Reports indicate that now Russia expressed its willingness to join the board propping up Pakistan’s aspirations to increase its Eurasian influence.

While enhanced Sino-Pakistan engagement is not anew but the magnitude of the project and inherent advantages it confers on China beyond economic prosperity is an issue of serious concern. CPEC will connect Kashgar city of China in Xinjiang province to Gwadar port in Balochistan in Pakistan. CPEC is not mere connectivity link carrying crucial oil supplies to China but greatly facilitates Beijing’s access to Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean via Gwadar port auguring its ambitions of strategic encirclement of India. CPEC thus graduates from a contrivance of cooperation for economic prosperity to an instrument of security interests. By cementing strong relations Sino-Pakistan engagement is akin to the touted US- Israel friendship. It is believed that besides proposals of constructing railways, highways and oil pipes China has stationed its army to protect its construction personnel in Gilgit and Baltistan. Defence analysts believe that presence of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have greater strategic implications for India. Karakoram highway runs perilously close to the Siachen glacier perched at a height of 18,000 to 20,000ft. Indian troops scripted a landmark victory during the Kargil war by capturing the heights and denying Pakistan of the strategic advantage. Pakistan armed troops for long have been keen on claiming the glacier and its diplomatic wing too is working hand in glove raising the issue of demilitarization of peaks at every possible international forum. Indian defence officials had warned government of dire consequences of vacating troops from the heights. Accordingly Indian government remained obdurate under International pressure (3).

India has five mountain ranges that guard its northern frontier- Karakoram ranges, Zanskar ranges, Ladakh ranges, Himalayan ranges and Pir Panjal ranges. Karkoram ranges are the highest ranges in the north and form major part of the de facto Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. But it is appalling as how India failed to raise objections when Pakistan has ceded strategically significant geographical territory to China in 1963. Subsequently by 1966 Pakistan and China jointly began construction of the Karakoram High way which was completed by 1979 and was opened for public in 1986. Currently work is under way to upgrade the road into an all-weather express way by laying optic fiber cable along the entire length of 1300km. This region is developed into a Karakoram corridor with trans-karakoram rail lines and oil pipes running in parallel. The fortified Chinese military presence in the region under the guise of offering security to its construction officials, India can hardly afford to ignore the latest developments. It is pertinent to recall that China has transferred fissile material for the production of nuclear arsenal to Pakistan along this highway. Conversely Pakistan used the highway to send American weapons to China for reverse engineering. This route was used to arm the Talibans fighting Soviet Union (4). Karakoram highway constructed at an altitude of 15,397 ft is highest paved strategic international road that crosses Khunjerab Pass. The highway harbors tunnels that provide greater security to missiles stationed for deployment and effectively shield their detection by International and Indian surveillance systems. Recently Sharif has inaugurated five Pakistan- China friendship tunnels constructed by China’s Road and Bridge Corporation (CBRC) over the Attabad Lake in Gilgit- Baltistan’s Hunza Valley (5). These tunnels were reconstructed after they got submerged by a massive landslide in 2010.

Pakistan signed first border trade agreement with China in 2003 to strengthen transport cooperation. China began investing huge amounts of money in the region after the earthquake in 2005 and in 2009 it invested $300 million towards developmental projects in PoK. As per MoU signed between the China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and Pakistan’s National Highway Authority (NHA) in 2006, Karakoram highway is widened from 10 mts to 30 mts increasing its operational capacity. Further in 2010 an agreement was reached between NHA and CBRC of China to extend start Phase-2 of highway connecting Thakot Bridge to Sazin and for widening of Jaglot-Skardu Road (6). Indus and its tributaries flowing through bestow PoK it with perennial water supply. Several MoU were signed between the two countries building dams and hydroelectric units in the region. But environmentalists raised severe objections to construction of hydroelectric power generation stations since PoK falls in seismically very active zone.

Though Prime Minister Modi raised this issue with President Xi during his visit to China in May 2015 the issue was largely undermined. Modi has expressed his concerns over recent developments in the Gilgit-Baltistan region at BRICS Summit and appealed to China to refrain from unveiling of the mega project in CPEC scheduled to be completed in three years.

Pakistan’s scheme of events for amalgamating PoK should be a cause for major apprehension for India. In 2009, it changed the nomenclature of the Northern Areas to Gilgit- Balitistan (GB) under the Empowerment and Self-rule order. In furtherance to it long term strategy of “camouflaging its forced occupation”, it conducted mock elections to schematically merge GB into Pakistan as its fifth province. But this move of Pakistan may not gain sizeable traction as major political parties in GB and All Parties Hurriyat conference (APHC) are against Pakistan’s move of merging it as a province. Kashmiri separatists demanded that GB cannot be merged until unless Kashmir issue is resolved.

In the meanwhile China is drawing plans to set up its consulate in GB. Pakistan in a bid to give push to its larger aspirations of extending its influence into Eurasia has generously offered land-locked countries of the SCO (Shangai Cooperation Organisation) to use Pakistani ports. Islamabad has initiated its efforts to renew Quadrilateral Agreement on traffic in Transit signed in 1995 with China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (6). According to the new pact supposed to be inked on December 25^th, all four nations will waive-off transit fee and toll charges. Under the aegis of the, Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation program (CAREC) initiated by Asian Development Bank to promote inter-regional connectivity and promote economic cooperation between central Asian nations plus Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, Pakistan is seeking a special Trade Transit Agreement (TTA) with Afghanistan (7). Pakistan is now party to International Transport of Goods (TIR) convention, a legal framework implemented by International Road Transport Union (IRU) Geneva, waives payment of custom duties, and taxes for traffic-in-transit goods across borders of contracting parties. As many as 68 countries and EU are party to this convention (8).

PoK is a safe haven for Afghani Talibans and Indian Home Ministry report of 2008 confirms presence of military camps in the region. After disastrous earthquake of 2005 in GB which claimed 1,00,000 lives Pakistan expressed its inability to carry out relief and rescue operations in this region. This gross neglect made it a fresh breeding ground for many foreign mercenaries. PoK was a Shia dominated region but the Sunni majority Pakistan government spurned the residents. In a state-sponsored brutal pogrom locals Shias and Ismailis were mercilessly executed by Sunni tribes. Consequently PoK, which had diverse ethnic groups speaking multiplicity of languages is now experiencing state-mediated ethnic cleansing of Shias altering the native demographic composition (9). PoK has already turned into an epicenter for militant camps clandestinely patronized by ISI and Pakistan. Especially Muzaffarabad, capital of Gilgit- Baltistan is known to harbor militant camp where critical planning and execution of the 26/11 attacks was carried out.

Apart from deriving greater economic benefits by allowing Chinese presence in the PoK region, Pakistan intends to capitalize on Chinese presence in the region as a counter balance to India. China despite knowing that the region is infested with militants and might fortify Uighur militancy is working in tandem with Pakistan for its own geostrategic goals. While China vociferously lashed out at India over joint oil explorations with Vietnamese counterparts in the South China Sea, it is skittish in explaining growing PLA presence in PoK. Though India has raised PoK issue with China reiterating the invalidity and illegality of the boundary agreement since the region is integral part of India, Beijing continues to aggressively pursue its strategic calculus.

Haritha's Musings

Wednesday, 21 October 2015

Strategic Importance of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Part-2

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