Bihar Political Crisis: “Midnight rush”

Whosoever said, politics is a different ball game seems to have it right. The unprecedented pace of events that unfolded in Bihar politics were no less a roller coaster ride. Even the hard-core political junkies were astounded by the unraveling of developments that outpaced conventional thinking. Till now obtaining numbers was considered the ultimate salvation in politics. But now cementing the political mandate and staking claims to form government has become latest gold standard in Indian politics.

High drama unfurled in Bihar with Nitish Kumar tendering resignation as the Chief minister by parting ways with Mahaghatbhandan, an alliance of convenience formed in 2015, to defeat BJP. The flurry of political activity that ensued following the public announcement of Nitish’s resignation can throw avid political observers into tizzy. Startled by quick pace of developments critics alleged that Nitish’s move was pre-meditated and in part orchestrated by stalwarts in BJP. But a close look at the series of events aimed at consolidation of political mandate suggests that it wasn’t choreographed after all. No sooner, had Nitish announced his resignation, Prime Minister Modi congratulated him and extended his support in his fight against corruption. Soon the BJP MLAs in Bihar assembled to take stock of the recent developments. Meanwhile, as a matter of sheer coincidence, top leaders of BJP at Delhi discussed Bihar issue at a pre-scheduled BJP parliamentary board meet. Soon a three-member panel containing State BJP President Nityanand Rai, Sushil Modi and Leader of Opposition in Assembly Prem Kumar was constituted to analyze situation of Bihar. Shortly, Sushil Modi in unequivocal terms announced that BJP was against mid-term elections.

In the meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav lashed out at Nitish Kumar and levelled murder charges against Nitish Kumar reminding him that a FIR was lodged against him. Lalu’s press meet was followed by statement from the Congress, junior partner of the grand alliance, resenting the sudden resignation of Nitish Kumar and promised to work for resolving the differences in the “grand alliance”.  Lalu Prasad Yadav, has a reputation of being master of coalitions. BJP and JD (U) wary of his horse trading politics, quickly made decisions. BJP announces support for JD(U) and elects Nitish Kumar as the leader of state for NDA alliance with Sushil Modi as Deputy Chief Minister. Without losing any time, both parties together garner support of all its MLAs. BJP soon hands over letter of support from 132 legislators to Governor Keshri Nath Tripathi.

It must be noted during the entire process of hectic political rallying and consolidation, Congress, the grand old party, known to have gone through thick and thin of Indian politics, plagued by political lethargy failed to take a plunge into the political disarray. Baring a statement from Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala, hardly it made any noise. The reluctant, Congress Vice-President’s indifference was glaringly conspicuous for not issuing a public statement even after this ground-breaking development in Bihar. Let alone summoning leaders to Patna to resolve the issue, the deafening silence and dereliction of political responsibilities smoothened the path towards power for JD(U), BJP combine. In sharp contrast, vivacity, political acumen, alacrity, mobilization of cadres, timely intervention and right decision paved way for realization of political ambitions for BJP.

RJD, miffed by power claims of JD(U), BJP combined made attempts to foil their attempts late in the midnight. After Nitish Kumar received invitation to form government, Tejashwi Yadav sought appointment with Governor and stakes claim to form government. Dubbed as “midnight rush” reports of preponement of swearing-in ceremony from 5pm to 10 am cropped up. As a last bid attempt, Tejashwi marches to Raj Bhavan with his MLA’s requesting governor to allow them to form the government for being the single largest party.  Meanwhile, Lalu Yadav calls for a state-wide agitation by RJD workers. But ultimately withdraws the call an hour before Nitish Kumar’s swearing-in as chief Minister of Bihar under NDA alliance. Amidst sec-144 imposed near Raj Bhavan, Nitish Kumar was back as chief minister of Bihar in less than 15 hours of his resignation and divorce from “grand alliance”. With rumors of horse trading running high and dry, Governor ordered for a floor test in the next 24 hrs.

Interestingly, minutes after Nitish was sworn-in Rahul Gandhi, fired a salvo saying, “He (Nitish) joined hands with us in anti-communal fight, but Nitish Kumar, for his personal politics, joined hands with those against whom he has fought”. He added “In politics you come to know of what is going on in the minds of the people. Clearly, I knew Nitishji is planning. We knew this was going on for the last three-four months. People do anything for selfish motives. There is no principle, no credibility. They can do anything for power”. Apparently, Nitish is known to be a wily politician and an opportunist.  Flush with national ambitions, Nitish had parted ways with BJP after 17 years of alliance. Having earned a formidable reputation for his clean image in politics, Nitish eventually aspired to make a grand standing in national political arena. Narendra Modi’s overwhelming charisma and burgeoning popularity began to constrain Nitish’s ambitions. These seeds of frustration augured by growing stature of Modi led to crumbling of JD(U), BJP alliance. To give more power to his ambitions, Nitish joined hands with RJD and Congress forming the Mahaghatbhandan which erroneously split the votes catapulting the grand alliance to power. Nitish believed that he would be favorably rewarded for his good governance and would emerge as the key player in the grand alliance gaining maximum numbers. But RJD emerged as the single largest party. Despite administrative encumbrance and political differences Nitish managed to govern the state for almost 20 months under the grand alliance. While Nitish’s endorsement of demonetization and support to Presidential candidate Ramnath Kovind irked the other alliance partners, the superficial fractures failed to dismantle the “Mahaghatbhandan”. But the internal abrasions became more prominent after FIR was filed against Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav in disproportionate assets case and when Nitish failed to get reasonable explanation from Tejashwi for the corruption charges. In the meanwhile, Congress lent vocal support to Lalu and his claims that he and his family was subjected to political vendetta by the centre. For over a month after the corruption charges were levelled against Tejashwi, JD (U) signaled that Yadav should quit. But Lalu Yadav persisted that Tejashwi wouldn’t quit. Miffed Nitish travelled to Delhi to meet Rahul and apprise him of the situation. Rahul insisted that grand alliance should be saved from trivial rifts.

Now, Rahul Gandhi alleging that he was aware of Nitish’s intentions 3-4 months ahead sounds incredulous since he had every opportunity to save the grand alliance from falling apart, if he had the audacity to ask Tejashwi to resign on corruption charges. Apparently, Congress has no moral ground to summon someone on corruption charges, with the dynasty reeling under mounting charges of payoffs, fraud, and corruption. Slowly, the grand old party is becoming irrelevant with every passing day. Crumbling under the travails of inept leadership, overpowered by adamancy to learn from mistakes, refusal to revive cadres and besieged by opaque functioning, Congress is invariably sinking into an abyss of political catastrophe. Endless cycle of self-goals and bouts of intermittent political activity is ensuring its slow but steady decay.

With next general election, less than two years away, Congress is surely on its path to degradation. Since 2014, Congress has been consistently losing its political hold over various states. Baring Punjab, which is its crowning glory, thanks to the commendable efforts of Captain Amarinder Singh, Congress lost every other Assembly election. Despite a series of electoral defeats, Congress refuses to introspect. In 2014, it lost the position of principal opposition, and was forced to play a second fiddle. After losing Bihar, it is proven that Congress isn’t capable of being a junior alliance in coalition. On the other hand, by outshining rivals and through swift political maneuvering BJP despite the numbers made rapid progress by forming coalition governments in states like Goa and Manipur. BJP juggernaut led by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah as of now appears omniscient, decimating the opposition rendering them inept.

Bihar crisis could have been averted had the Grand alliance displayed courage to uphold values. While Nitish is an opportunist politician, incipient dynasticism of power obsessed Indian politicians has claimed yet another scalp. Going by the current trends, the opposition combined desperate on mauling BJP are critically short of a stratagem and commitment. Meanwhile, as the opposition continue to blunder and castigate the central government for sake of momentary glory, BJP’s political fortunes shine more brightly.

Meanwhile, all is not well within JD(U) as voices of dissent within the camp becoming shriller. Though the BJP, JD (U) combine have seven votes more than the majority, serious doubts are raised about the loyalty of five Muslim legislators and six Yadavs. Further, Sharad Yadav didn’t attend the oath taking ceremony of Nitish Kumar. He was in Delhi meeting Rahul Gandhi. Indian politics has dubious reputations of defections and poaching. JD (U) MP Ali Anwar Ansari is stoking voices of dissent. Though NDA has the numbers, it should keep fingers crossed until tomorrow’s trust vote.

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Breaking of Antarctic Larsen C Ice Shelf: An inimical off-shoot of Climate Change

Debates of climate changed picked up traction with ignoble US president announcing the withdrawal of America from the Paris Climate Accord. Protesting the indifference of politicians towards the climate change environmentalists expressed their discontentment with massive protests at Hamburg where G-20 leaders assembled for the summit meet. Days after conclusion of the summit, European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 mission, announced that Larsen C ice-shelf, the fourth largest in the World (5800 sq km) comprising of 12% of total area of Antarctica broke off from the frozen continent.

Ice-shelves are humongous repositories which are formed when glaciers on land begin to spread out over the sea. They essentially prevent the drifting of glacial ice into sea and thereby regulate sea level rise. In general, glacial ice, chips off to form icebergs. Now snapping of 12 trillion cubic meters of ice, larger than Haryana, is believed to change the landscape of Antarctica. While the immediate effects of this event are not ominous, scientists are carefully monitoring rest of the ice-shelf closely. The ice shelf which looks like a crooked finger is pointing towards tip of the South America is an extension of huge West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The ice-shelf when ripped off completely will exist as a 190-meter-thick iceberg nearly four times the height of Qutub Minar.

Indeed, fissures in the Larsen C ice-shelf first appeared in 2010. The tear which spread 10 meters per day gradually accelerated to 36 mt before finally snapped away on July 12th. Splintering of ice shelf has already begun and the smaller ice bergs are now heading towards Weddell Sea. Experts at Scripps Institute of Oceanography said that ice fragments might eventually move further north towards South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands.

Breaking of ice-shelf is a natural process. Antarctica ice is tightly compressed at the edges of its rocky base and under the weight of huge ice accumulations, ice shelves break off from time to time. Hence breaking of ice shelves can’t be attributed to global warming directly. But what caught the attention of the scientists is the shortened frequency of the calving (breaking of ice-shelves) process. Ice shelves which form 75% of coastal Antarctica are susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature from above and ocean warming from below. Though the role of warm climates in triggering calving is not scientifically established as of now, experts believe don’t belie its role.

Gigantic Icy continent is firmly edged by ice-shelves which form the coastal region while glaciers impound inlands. Thwaites glaciers, a gigantic bulk of ice part of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet, located further inland has become cause of intense concern. Rapidly changing climates led to melting and sliding of the glaciers into sea pushing up sea levels. Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions accentuate melting of glaciers. It is estimated that melting of West Antarctica Ice Sheet can increase sea level by 3 meters. On the contrary, ice-shelf breaking may not increase the sea-level since this portion of ice was already in water. Volume of water produced after the ice shelf melting is equal to volume of ice that was displaced. But calving of ice-shelf and its gradual melting will greatly destabilize the land ice. Though scientists are hopeful that ice-shelf will regrow but chipping away of huge chunks of ice-shelves at regular intervals will inadvertently make Antarctica less stable. If the newly calved iceberg drifts into warm oceans, it can just long for few decades. Ice shelves act as sinks for glaciers and their calving will eventually hasten melting of glaciers leading to increase in sea-level. In 2015, a report in reputed journal Science warned that ice-shelves in Antarctica are thinning at an accelerated pace and that ice-shelves ceased to gain volume.

Larsen Shelf is named after the Norwegian explorer Carl Anton Larsen who in 1890, sailed along the 1000km western coastal stretch. The Larsen shelf comprises of distinct shelves- Larsen A, B, C and D. In 1995, Larsen A broke away and melted completely in seven years.  The 10,000 years old Larsen B separated from Antarctica in 2002 and became an iceberg. Reports showed that Larsen B calving speeded up glacier collapse by 300 to 800%. Larsen C is five times the size of Larsen B. NASA scientist Cavin Schmidt said that complete melt down of Larsen C might increase sea level by 0.1mm.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fifth Assessment Report (5AR), indicated that temperatures in Antarctic peninsula where Larsen-C is located, are rising four to six times that of global average. Though role of global warming wasn’t scientifically established as of now, reputed scientific journal, Nature, opined that increased human (anthropogenic) activity in Antarctica is posing new threat. Surge in number of tourists visiting Antarctica is drastically changing the delicate ecosystem of Antarctica. Especially visitors to coastal regions has increased from 1.5 million in 2004-05 to 2.6 million in 2013-14. Interestingly, Antarctica is in news recently for being the venue for first ever wedding ceremony of expedition leaders of British Antarctica Survey (BAS).

As per IPCC reports twentieth century witnessed a linear increase of sea-level caused by warmer oceans and melting glaciers. In 21^st century rise of sea-level is exponential because of melting of fast flowing glaciers and subsequent breaking of ice-shelves of Greenland and Antarctica. Already islands in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and countries with huge coasts are facing the inimical effects of global warming. Besides the impending threats of inundation, rising sea-levels are critically endangering livelihoods of thousands of people living along the coasts. Fertile cultivable lands are rendered barren by salty depositions. Fresh water resources are becoming salty. 

Mounting evidences unequivocally indicate that unscrupulous human activity has irrevocably disturbed delicate balance of nature. The irreversible damage can be controlled through collective action and committed nurture. It is time international collaboration be ramped up to tame the disastrous cycle of events triggered by global warming. But sadly, overpowered by ritualistic nationalism, America, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is dragging its feet. Abdicating responsibilities towards environment will push us closer to a brink of self-inflicted catastrophic consequences. Calving of Antarctic ice-shelf is an inimical distress signal lest the World choses to brush it off at its own peril.

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Chinese belligerence meets Indian defiance

Vanquishing all hopes of a peaceful resolution of Sikkim border stand-off China bares it all now. Beijing’s belligerence is at all-time high. The prospect of two and a half front war, envisaged by Indian Army chief is more a reality now. Tensions across the Western and Eastern front have intensified. New Delhi is making all necessary preparations to meet all exigencies. Accordingly, government made necessary amends bestowing the financial authority to the Vice Chief of Army for procuring arms and ammunition. To maintain combat readiness for a short duration war, government has decided to let off the overriding the bureaucratic procedures. Besides, additional troops have been deployed across the borders. Now, an irrevocably miffed China, apart from escalating diplomatic rhetoric is attempting to strangulate India by creating domestic frictions.

Preposterous adventurism and coercive diplomacy of China are at work now. China deliberately raked up the situation making high-pitched noises coinciding Modi’s visit to the US warning New Delhi against levitating towards Washington. But India remained assertive, refused to withdraw its troops, stepped up its position to defend Bhutan, an act unanticipated by Beijing Mandarins. Embittered China, set preconditions for bilateral peace process, ramped up rhetoric and is now attempting to create internal rifts. Disgruntled by India’s reluctance to kowtow, China hatched a multi-pronged strategy to bring India to its heels.

China’s pro-active interest in India’s domestic affairs came into light after Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi met Chinese Envoy, Luo Zhaohui. Initial hushed silence donned by Congress about such a meeting, followed by a denial of the same and then a rather forcible and reluctant admission has raised doubts about plausible intentions. Reports of former NSA Shiv Shankar Menon facilitating Rahul Gandhi’s meeting with Bhutanese Ambassador and Chinese envoy and Chinese embassy pulling out the news from its website ignited sneaky suspicions. Sources now reveal that Chinese envoy Zhaohui, has recently met West Bengal Chief Minister Mamatha Banerjee, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Former Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and his son Gaurav and Darjeeling District Magistrate. The long list of the so called “courtesy calls” by Chinese envoy at the height of border stand-off is intriguing and alarming. In the meanwhile, counsellor Dr. Jiang Yili, wife of Zhaohui has secretly flown to Bhutan to meet Queen Mother. Enigmatic and clandestine outreach of China towards select Indian politicians bespeaks of a Beijing’s iniquitous game plan. As of now all political parties extended firm support to government for seeking a diplomatic solution to current stand-off. But CPI (M)’s official mouth piece People Democracy blamed NDA government that siding with US has resulted in deterioration of ties with China. It reiterated that “It is important to keep in mind that Bhutan is main party of dispute. Bhutan is not ‘protectorate’ of India. It is better that India let Bhutan take the lead in negotiating with China on Doklam plateau and other disputed territories. India can lend support to Bhutan’s position” and warned “extraneous factors must not be allowed to interfere in the quest for better relations between the two neighbors in Asia”. The editorial swiftly raked all up the issues where India adopted an independent stand and made every attempt to safe guard its interests (India’s joint military exercises with the US, Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, India’s refusal to attend BRI summit). CPI (M)’s reference to ‘Bhutan’ as a ‘protectorate of India’ ostensibly matched China’s perspective.

Post border stand-off, Global times, is making every attempt to ignite new domestic tensions through ill-disposed remarks. Beijing has been closely monitoring domestic developments in India. Prolonged Gorkhaland agitation caused partial closure of NH-10 highway that connects Sikkim to rest of India leading to a crisis of supplies. Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling, venting out his anger said, “the people of Sikkim didn’t merge the state with the Indian Union to become a sandwich between India and China”. He remarked that the state has lost Rs 60,000 crores in the past 30 years due to intermittent blockades of the highway. He pointed that Sikkim is a water reservoir of the nation and waters from the state flow into Bengal. Coming down heavily on the pattern of impromptu bandhs of Gorkhaland, he expressed support for a separate state of Gorkhaland and warned to take issue to Supreme Court.  Taking cue from this outburst, Global times launched a scathing attack on India accusing New Delhi of harboring regional hegemony ambitions and began fanning distrust. A day after Chamling’s public statement, the newspaper contended that it is considering using “tools” to create trouble in Sikkim and Bhutan to deter New Delhi from “provocations”. Besides it warned “Beijing should reconsider its stance over the Sikkim issue. Although China recognized India’s annexation of Sikkim in 2003, it can readjust its stance on the matter. There are those in Sikkim that cherish its history as a separate state and they are sensitive to how the outside world views the Sikkim issue. As long as there are voices in Chinese community supporting Sikkim’s independence, the voices with spread and fuel pro-independence appeals in Sikkim. With certain conditions, Bhutan and Sikkim will see strong anti-India movements, which will affect India’s already turbulent north east and rewrite southern Himalayan geopolitics”. While it is an established fact that China offers refuge, finances, arms, and weaponry to North East militants this blatant warning confounds India’s worst fears. These outright threats signify, Beijing’s efforts to destabilize India. India’s steady rise is unsettling an increasingly assertive and aggressive China. India’s uncompromising opposition to BRI has touched Beijing’s raw nerves.

In any case this time around, unremitting unrest in Darjeeling stoked by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamatha Banerjee’s order of imposing Bengali on Gorkhas has ignited the latent movement for an independent Gorkhaland.  Government should make a cautious intervention before tension flares up and pose grievous threat to peace and stability of the region. Interestingly, while China is predisposed to change its stance on Sikkim, India is expected to honor the “One China policy”. China incessantly warns India from playing the “Dalai lama card”, but finds it convenient to stoke independence movement in Sikkim.

Now, Global Times is preparing ground to drive wedge between India and Bhutan saying that “through unequal treaties, India has severely jeopardized Bhutan’s diplomatic sovereignty and controls its national defence”. Over years, China managed to pull away South Asian countries Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal from Indian sphere. It is now heavily investing in Bangladesh. But Beijing failed to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan. China is now determined to trample long-standing Indo-Bhutanese ties and all these calumnious accusations of Global Times, amply ascertains Beijing’s intentions. In the same editorial, China accused India of “trampling” Panchasheel principles. Ironically, China’s flagrant abnegation of these lofty principles propounded by India led to devastating 1962 Indo-China war.

Upping ante against India, Long Xingchun, Director at Centre for Indian Studies, in his article in Global Times said “Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan’s territory, this could only be limited to its established territory not disputed territory. Otherwise, under India’s logic, if the Pakistan government requests, a third country’s army can enter the area disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled Kashmir”. Incidentally, China’s reference to Kashmir and willingness to intervene Indo-Pakistan bilateral issue comprehends the narrative of Beijing insinuating “iron brother” to ramp up insidious activities in the valley. It is worth noting that while many countries severely condemned terror dastardly attacks on Amarnath Yatris, China maintained silence. Instead it rebuked India for escalating terror across LoC as Pakistan suffered causalities in an exchange of firing to Islamabad’s ceasefire violations. With respect to the current border impasse, Chinese analyst said “China can show the region and the international community or even the UNSC its evidence to illustrate China’s position. It highlights China’s sincerity and effort to maintain peace as a responsible power. It will never resort to force till it is the last choice”. Intriguingly, China’s assurances of maintaining peace as responsible power might have few or no takers for it notoriously referred to as big bully of Asia. Beijing’s blatant disapproval of PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration) verdict has proved its defiance to internationally established rules beyond an iota of doubt.

China’s insatiable appetite for territorial expansion is well known. Over years China has been skillfully penetrating and nibbling away territories without firing a single bullet. Beijing having mastered selective apportioning of facts and rewriting history has resorted to a land grab termed as “Salami slicing” by experts. China has indeed laid claims to territories in 23 countries though it shares borders with 14 countries. The total size of Beijing’s claims exceeds the size of modern China. Most of the claimed are dated back to several centuries and have unsubstantiated historical precedents.  The list of claims are truly appalling and exasperating as well. The article refers to a 1418 map that proves China discovered America much before Columbus. Suffice to say that this quintessential expansion spree of China sums up the dubiety of Beijing’s claims in the Doklam stand- off too.

In 2003, India and China recognized the Special Representative (SR) Mechanism to resolve boundary Issues. In 2012, SR decided that border dispute of the trilateral junction would be resolved after consulting all the three parties.  But now China deliberately developed a narrative projecting the current stand-off as Sino-Bhutan bilateral issue undermining the sanctity of SR mechanism and portraying India as an aggressor.

With no solution in sight to Doklam stand-off, a commentary in Xinhua Agency, added yet another dimension to threaten India by calling Ladakh as a disputed region. Xinhua is part of Chinese government and affiliated to State Council, China’s Cabinet. While welcoming foreign secretary Jai Shankar’s remarks at Singapore that “India and China should not let differences become disputes”, Xinhua said “China has made it clear that there is no room for negotiations on this incident and India must withdraw its border crossing-troops from Doklam. For China, border line is the border line”. Though India incessantly stressed on continued use of diplomatic channels, Doklam stand-off has become a prestige issue for China who refuses to budge from current stand-off. Situation has reached alarming proportions that “both sides can’t afford to be regarded a loser”. NSA Ajit Doval will be traveling to Beijing for the multilateral security dialogue under BRICS on July 27^th and 28^th to initiate diplomatic negotiations. But Chinese analyst Hu Shisheng, Director of Institute of South and South East Asian and Oceanic studies said “this kind of confrontation in border areas will continue until climate becomes more and more inhuman. Finally, because of the weather, Indian troops may pull back, both sides may pull back”. But clearly, there seems to be no end to this stand-off. Indian Army officers observed that Indian troops have been defending the most inhospitable Siachen Glaciers of 19000ft stationing troops even through winter at Doklam perched at lower altitude may not be difficult. Implying that India would continue to dig in its heels at Doklam.

Clearly, whimpers of desperation, exasperating recapitulations of past events and brewing unrest in certain parts of country impel intervention of the government immediately. Chinese machinery is closely monitoring internal political and regional squabbling within in India. India now faces the twin challenges of safe guarding boundaries against external threats and buttressing domestic security network to maintain peace and harmony within. With China declaring parts Indian territory country as disputed regions to suit its narratives and threatening India to fall in line, India must not hesitate to use the Dalai Lama Card as Tibetan annexation gravely distorted the Indian security profile.

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Amarnath Yatra Attack: Assured of Chinese support, emboldened Pakistan Unleashes Terror

Unfortunate killing of hapless Amarnath Yatra pilgrims, seamless riot-running by Pakistan sponsored anti-nationals exemplifies revivification of Pakistan’s military. The latest turn of events not withstanding India’s efforts to isolate and calling Pakistan’s bluff, stems from the unabashed support extended by China which repeatedly stalled India’s attempts to castigate terror outfits nurtured by Pakistan. Last fortnight, US administration, hours before Modi’s meeting with President Trump, designated Syed Salahuddin as a “global terrorist”. A day after the release of Joint statement where India and US have “committed to strengthen cooperation against terrorist threats from groups including al-Qaeda, ISIS, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), LeT, D-Company” China backed Pakistan. Chinese Foreign Minister Lu Kang in a press meeting said, “China thinks that the international cooperation against terrorism should be enhanced and stepped up. The international community should give full recognition and affirmation to Pakistan’s efforts in this regard”. He added, “We have to say that Pakistan stands at the frontlines of the international counter terrorism fight and has been making efforts in this regard”. Unequivocal support from all-weather friend has emboldened Pakistan beyond any measure. Moreover, with the civilian government headed by Nawaz Sharif, becoming increasingly irrelevant and muddied by the Panama Gate, military is now unchallenged authority handling all the fronts of administration.

This year, unwarranted cross-border firing and ceaseless infiltration bids across LoC have been exceptionally high which began even before winter retreated in the higher ranges. As of June 2017, India security forces have foiled 22 infiltration bids and 34 armed intruders. Barring border escalations in May, when Indian Army’s promise of retributions after the Pakistan Border Action Team (BAT), comprising of Pakistani soldiers and militants mutilated bodies of Indian soldiers, during ceasefire violation, Indian forces reined on Pakistan’s nefarious attacks. But smitten by humiliating debacle at The Hague in the Kulbhushan Jadav case, Pakistan has been egging to attack India. But ground was slipping under India’s feet as Pakistan began manipulating Kashmir narrative by relentless funding an army of “stonepelters” and viciously invoking jihad. Singing the Pakistani symphony, Lutyens Delhi intensified attacks on Indian government condemning actions of Indian security forces while conveniently remaining silent when forces were hectored. Unfortunately, these self-professed intellectuals who control the media critically feed audience with distorted facts eventually changing their perceptions and manufacturing false narratives. Verdict ordering payment of Rs 10 lakhs as a compensation to Farooq Ahmed Dar, tied to jeep by Major Leetul Gogoi as a last bid to save lives of polling officials by the J&K Human Rights Commission exemplifies influence of Pakistan apologists. Additionally, these false narratives on Kashmir are now openly buttressed by CPI (Maoist) a designated terrorist organization by India. CPI(M) which is tight-lipped over atrocities perpetrated in its Father Land, in a resolution of central committee meeting at Dandakaranya in December 2016, extended support to Kashmiri separatists and Pakistan-based terror groups. Earlier in 2015, Indian security authorities raised alarm over appearance of Chinese flags alongside Pakistan flags in the valley after Friday prayers during President Xi’s visit to India. Pakistan and China whose friendship is “sweeter than honey” and bonded over anti-India agenda, strengthened by economic and military ties are working in tandem to destabilize India. China’s involvement with North East militants by now has been well established. Now the undercurrent of Islamist-Maoist collusions is playing an incontrovertible role in decisively shaping narratives on Kashmir.

Pakistan’s recent brazenness and unabashed unleashing of terror is an outcome of China’s unstinted support. Ever since America hardened its stance with Trump proposing conversion of US aid to Pakistan into a loan and handing over a royal snub to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at the US-Arab NATO meeting, Pakistan increasingly gravitated towards Beijing. Adept in deriving economic benefits and receiving sophisticated weaponry in return for raising a militant army, Pakistan having found a new master (China) is no longer worried about US ostracization. Like US, China reached out to Pakistan to accomplish twin goals of containment of India & reducing relevance of India in South Asia and gaining access to Indian Ocean. By penetrating the POK region under the lieu of constructing Karakoram Highway and most recently through CPEC, China planned to nip aspirations of India. But a rising India under Prime Minister Modi posed a threat to its hegemonic rise in Asia.

Amidst heightened tensions between India and China following Chinese transgression into the Doka La region. Indo-China border skirmishes intensified after China bulldozed Indian bunkers when Indian army prevented China from building a road extending into the disputed India-Bhutan-China trijunction.  Indeed, China reneged on the status quo agreement with Bhutan intensified diplomatic rhetoric when Modi had first meeting with President Trump. India being security guarantor for Bhutan had become principal opponent in this border dispute. China steadily upped ante against India. Beijing played victim card and portrayed India as alleged aggressor. But in the meanwhile, busting China’s false propaganda Bhutan called shots against China. Having earned a formidable reputation of defying International Rules based order, international community started analyzing the situation. High-handedness of Beijing over a tiny land locked Himalayan Kingdom is now intensely scrutinized. With India coming to Bhutan’s rescue in a dispute against the mighty power of Asia, China, east Asian countries who have territorial disputes with Beijing are looking up to India seeking a rebalance. Especially ASEAN countries cognizant of Beijing’s knack of nibbling miles of territories over extended period watching the developments closely.

Meanwhile, bolstering “Act East Policy” India extending red carpet welcome to Myanmar’s Army Chief who is on eight-day long trip to India, New Delhi extended invitation to all leaders of ASEAN for Republic Day while the foreign Minister of Vietnam in his visit to India renewed agreement for joint exploration of oil in South China Sea. These recent developments and India’s efforts to reach out to ASEAN countries caused intense discomfiture to China. Of late China intensified its military ties with Pakistan and in a display of growing Sino-Pakistan’s coziness, Chinese troops marched on Pakistan’s Military Day. To heighten Indian concerns Pakistan and China intensified military activities. Earlier this week, China carried out live-fire drills in Tibetan mountainous region, an exercise to test the high-altitude firing abilities of Type 96 B tank and Pakistan test fired advanced surface-to-surface, nuclear capable NASR missile almost at the same time.

Current border impasse unlike in previous occasions when Chinese army would regularly intrude across LAC, has generated much heat as Beijing steadily ramped up pressure on India with a tirade of media attacks through its mouth piece, Global Times. But India dug its heels, refused to accept pre-conditions for diplomatic talks and even Bhutan showed no signs of blinking.

While tensions across Sikkim border escalated, India was forced to tighten vigil across LoC with reports of Pakistani terror strike emerged commemorating first anniversary of Burhan Wani. India at once was stared at the prospect of two and half wars which Army Chief Bipin Rawat categorically mentioned in his press interaction earlier in June. China and Pakistan, brothers in arms intensified border attrition to entrap India. China’s complicity so far, gave wings to Pakistan’s insidious dreams. By refusing to include Pakistan terror outfits in joint statement at the BRICS-BIMSTEC summit last year, China abetted Islamist terror. Beijing’s ruthless anti-terror operations against of Uighar Muslims in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, impostures its recurrent vetoing of India’s appeals aimed at bringing Masood Azhar under UN sanctions. China’s artifice epitomizes Beijing’s capricious intentions towards India.

Resurgence of terror in Kashmir valley and dastardly killing of hapless women pilgrims returning after Amarnath yatra breaching the code of conduct of not attacking pilgrims has enraged common man. Though reference to Amarnath’s preeminence to Hindus was made in ancient books like Rajatarangini, discovery of the sacrosanct Shivling was attributed to a Muslim herder, Buta Malik. Ever since the Muslim family assumed guardianship of the place. Soon the yatra became epic symbol of Kashmiri syncretism and peerless Hindu-Muslim brotherhood. From 1990’s anti-national aimed at derailing peace process in Kashmir wanted to disrupt the yatra. It was under attack by LeT (Laskhar E Taiba) for three consecutive years-2000, 2001, 2002 wherein several innocent pilgrims were killed. Investigations later revealed that attacks were basically aimed against security personnel, which was a kind of unwritten code of conduct for armed Pakistani militants. But current attacks were carried out on a bus carrying people unaccompanied by a security convoy was targeted suggesting a breach of unwritten rule and crossing of “all the red lines”. (Majority of the victims were Gujaratis, raising curious doubts about the intentions). This inhuman depravity has now opened a pandora box confounding the worst fears of valley becoming breeding ground for radicalization. Unlike militants, radicalized terrorists alone can nonchalantly transgress code of conduct. Overpowered by extremism, the banner of religion largely guides their actions. As typical religious hues now repugnantly align with terrorism, looming Islamic threats are becoming more imminent. As of now libtards who vociferously supported Kashmir issue as fight for azadi should now unequivocally accept that azadi is just a mask.

These targeted killings and attempts to thwart the yatra by LeT is an attempt to provoke India to launch befitting retaliation against Pakistan. Pakistan is deliberately escalating tensions across LoC forcing India to enter aggressive gun battle. Eventually if the military skirmishes intensify leading to inadvertent killing of civilians across either western or eastern front, China and Pakistan can together brandish India as a reckless aggressor. Consequently, attention of international community towards penetrating Chinese aggression can be staved off. China, being a permanent member of UNSC can in no time internationalize armed confrontations. The belligerent duo, working hand in glove, are obsessed to obviate India from the path of economic progress. India must carefully chalk out strategic diplomatic moves lest there is every chance of falling into the Chinese trap.

Now fresh reports of Pakistan terror outfits planning to wage a chemical warfare in Kashmir valley are emanating, raising more concerns about the decadence of Pakistan’s anti-India agenda. As of now China hasn’t issued any official press release on Amarnath Yatra killings while it was vocal about the cross-border firing across LoC in which Pakistani side is believed to have suffered causalities. Beijing’s silence on Amarnath Attacks, reiterates its indifference towards cross-border terrorism perpetrated by Pakistan. With day it is becoming increasingly clear that India prepare itself for a two and a half front war.

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China reneging on “One Country two Systems” promise: A wake-up call to International Community

Indo-Chinese border stand-off which entered second month, the longest till date post 1962 is showing no signs of remission. China adept at playing victimhood card, cited 1890 Sino-British agreement on Sikkim in its defence and appealed for withdrawal of Indian forces from the tri-junction even as President Xi refused to abide by 1984 agreement signed between same parties. The 1984 agreement paved way for hassle-free handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997.  Marking 20 years of hand-over of Hong Kong, President Xi made his first visit to Hong Kong after taking over as President in 2013 to sworn in pro-Chinese Chief Executive Clarrie Lam.  Xi, who is frantically adamant on “One China Policy” in unequivocal terms mowed down critical clause of “One Country, two systems” bedrock for Hong Kong’s promised autonomy at the event.

China vividly treasures July 1^st, 1997, a day when Hong Kong was transferred to Beijing after 156 years of British Rule. The event symbolized the end of “century of humiliation” that began with Sino-British Opium wars and pushed country into successive imperialistic rule. Deng Xiaoping in a bid to win back the historical Chinese territories and realize Chinese reunification proposed “One Country, two systems” for capitalist economies- Macau and Hong Kong.  He proposed that these territories will have their own political, economic, judicial, financial systems while foreign affairs and defence would be under the ambit of mainland China. To facilitate smooth takeover Hong Kong which had been an epitome of capitalism to an authoritarian regime, China and Britain engaged in negotiations for 13 years. In 1984, as per Sino-British Joint Declaration, registered under the UN, Britain was ordained to return Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty and China was obliged not to impose socialist regime on Hong Kong which will remain as Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China for 50 years, until 2047. Residents of Hong Kong had mixed feeling ranging from extreme jubilation at the prospect of reuniting with motherland to deep-rooted suspicion for being part of communist regime. To assuage apprehensions of Hong Kong, a mini-constitution was drafted which outlined the basic law governing the island, permitting it to retain capitalist economy and currency. China promised to preserve Hong Kong’s economic and cultural identity and defend Freedom of press, speech, religion and protest.

Interestingly, unlike Hong Kong, China remained reclusive for long. But in early 1970’s impressed by rapid economic strides of Hong Kong, China emulated the capitalist model and opened its economy. Hong Kong acted as conduit for development between China and the outside world and soon emerged as an outstanding financial center. After the transfer ceremony in 1997 Hong Kong’s economic integration with main land deepened. Consequently, Hong Kong became favored destination for many businesses. Rapid exodus of mainlanders and inflow of investments had changed the contour of Hong Kong and escalated the cost of living. Real estate businesses zoomed. Increased cost of living impeded dreams of own house for several youngsters of Hong Kong. Even socio-economic inequalities widened. Though the island had 95% of Chinese population, it had a unique identity, which began to weather under the authoritarian communist regime. Massive Chinese investments inadvertently brought political dominance which compounded fears of excessive Chinese intrusions into Hong Kong’s autonomy.

Economically, Hong Kong’s contribution to China’s GDP which was 25% in 1997 plunged to 3%. This critically changed China’s attitude towards Hong Kong. To diversify economy China relentlessly developed several economic hubs, like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou etc reducing reliance on Hong Kong. Beijing and Shanghai surpassed Hong Kong’s GPD reducing island’s economic preeminence. Slowly the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) began to impose its own set of laws grossly undermining the autonomy of Hong Kong. Attempts were made to replace curriculum with communist leaning ideology through Patriot Act under article 23, slow but subtle legislative reforms were enacted. Consequently, the abrasions between the China and Hong Kong became more sharper and dissidence towards mainland began to escalate. By 2013, independence movements began to gain ground. China’s reluctance to grant universal suffrage heightened creeping mistrust. The “831 decision” of imposing selective nomination of Chief Executive and Legislative Council, triggered class boycott for unprecedented 79 days culminating in the famous Umbrella Movement of October 2014 (Massive Occupy Protest). In 2016, Legislative council oath taking controversy sparked by two law makers (Sixtus Leung and Yau Wai-Ching) who took oath, bearing allegiance to Hong Kong Nation once again highlighted burgeoning dissent towards China.  The legislator duo of Youngspiration party which emerged after 2014 protests are fighting for self-determination and aims to have a referendum by 2020 with the outcomes effective from 2047 when the “One Country, two systems” pledge ends. As of now, the legislators stand disqualified, but these young guns have been the heart of pro-democracy movement. Days before President Xi’s visit for handover ceremony, protestors draped black flag over the giant Bauhinia flower, a statue that symbolized Hong Kong’s transfer underscoring the 20 years of authoritarian regime of China.

Twenty years after the transfer on the eve of swearing-in of Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman remarked that, “Now that Hong Kong has returned to motherland for 20 years, the Sino-British Declaration, as a historical document, no longer has any realistic meaning”. Responding to these remarks, British Foreign Office replied that, declaration is “legally binding treaty, registered with UN, and continues to be in force. As a co-signatory, the UK government is closely committed to monitoring its implementation closely”.

Unabashed artifice of China, penetrating aggression, coercion, and duplicitous twisting of facts substantiates Chinese desperation for a “Sino-Centric Asia” dream. High on power, China has incontrovertibly turned into bully of Asia. China’s deliberate infringement of standoff agreement with Bhutan testifies the same. Contemptuous warnings, fortification of border regions, aggressive deployment of submarines in Indian Ocean and a stubborn no for a compromise demonstrates a vicious rise of belligerent rise of China. Expansionist aspirations of China are threatening peace and stability of South Asia. China’s stubborn stance justifying illegitimate infrastructure development in the contentious India-Bhutan-China trijunction demonstrates Beijing’s belligerent rise.

The story of Hong Kong is no different from other autonomous regions of China- Xinjiang and Tibet where resistance in any form was crushed with iron fist. Increasingly hubristic, self-assertive China’s defiance to abide by international law and occasional reneging on bilateral agreements including the ruling of International Court on South China Sea dispute is indeed a message to all nations scrambling for bilateral developmental ties. Further China’s attempts to buy silence of international communities on human rights and issues of international law through trade-related sanctions bear semblance to China’s revisionism. For the first time EU failed to make a statement against China pertaining to human rights violation since Greece, Croatia and Hungary refused to vote. China invested heavily in Greece post 2008 recession. China’s largest shipping company COSCO has major stakes in Greece port Pireus.  Hungary and Croatia receive considerable Chinese investments. China is constructing nuclear reactors in these countries. China even forced Norway to fall in line by suspending diplomatic ties and imposing ban on import of Norwegian Salmon fish after 2010 as Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded Nobel peace prize to dissident Liu Xiaobo. By imposing tight reins on freedom of press and speech China ensured that its unspeakable excesses in crushing resistance movements in Tibet and Xinjiang remain unquestioned. Though the judgements on human rights issues are often delivered by West but China’s attempts to alter the existing frameworks should alert nations of China’s Obstinacy. Having watched Chinese intemperate interventions in autonomous regions, Taiwan is vehemently turning down Beijing’s formula of “peaceful unification”. Strong-arm tactics, attempts to throttle democracy and reins on freedom of press, speech is turning Chinese territories increasingly hostile towards main land. 

In the meanwhile, India’s reticence on Sikkim standoff is throwing Chinese off the gear. While Chinese has beefed up military at the border and aggressively rushed in submarines and ships into Indian Ocean, conflicting signals from China is throwing mask off its claims of “peaceful rise”. The true colors of Chinese belligerence are making its appearance in full glare. Series of impetuous articles by Global Times, indicated China wariness of India cozying up to US and New Delhi’s refusal to embrace OBOR (especially OBOR). OBOR was pet initiative of President Xi and India’s reluctance might threaten his credentials who was elevated as “core leader” on par with Mao Zedong. Until last decade, China acknowledged India as leader of South Asia. A retreating America has ceded ground to China. Hubristic China is now diplomatically escalating the situation to craftily encircle and contain India. Further, China fretted, Bhutan’s close ties with India and abnegation of diplomatic ties with Beijing. China blatantly violated the bilateral treaty of maintaining status quo in the disputed region with Bhutan and made deliberate attempts to provoke India by diplomatically upping rhetoric. Latest reports indicate that President Xi is unlikely to hold talks with Prime Minister Modi at Hamburg. Hence the stand-off is expected to continue as China refused to hold even flag meetings. In every likelihood, China would extend this impasse. But with East Asian cauldron simmering after North Korea test fired ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) and US mulling military action against North Korea, expect the unexpected….

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Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Israel

The iconic moment which Indians yearned for finally arrived. It was an unmissable moment in the history. Prime Minister Narendra Modi breaking seven-decade long restraint and dogmatic political rumblings visited Israel on July 4^th becoming the first Indian prime minister to script new chapters in Indian foreign policy. The excitement pertaining to the epochal meeting of Modi and Israel Prime Minister was palpable at the Ben Gurion airport as Air India One-carrying Prime Minister landed. In significant departure from the official protocol, Benjamin Netanyahu with his entire cabinet and various religious leaders welcomed Modi at the airport. The grand reception, effusive warmth, and exchange of hugs thrice in 15 minutes after embarking clearly displayed camaraderie and friendship between both the prime ministers.

Modi’s standalone, three-day state visit to Israel aptly epitomized preeminence of Israeli partnership to India. Defying the longstanding tradition of hyphenating Israel and Palestine, Modi strongly resisted pressures of visiting Ramallah (25km from Jerusalem). Modi’s much anticipated visit to Israel was strategically well-timed. To avoid unsavory whimper of protest from Muslim countries, Modi diligently fostered partnerships with almost all the Arab countries, Gulf, Iran, and Turkey; assured India’s support for Palestine, hosted Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas for three days in May. He waited until President Obama demitted Presidential office (US-Israel relations turned sour after P5+1 headed by Obama reached a nuclear deal with Iran). Interestingly Arab nations, preoccupied in ostracizing Qatar hardly voiced any concerns but a section of Indian politicians questioned Modi’s decision of not visiting Palestine. As India warmed up to Israel openly, Ayatollah Khamenei, urged Iranians to support oppressed Muslims of Kashmir. Clearly, fervent criticisms and intimidation are along expected lines. These criticisms underscore the hesitancy of previous Indian leaders in prioritizing bilateral relations with Israel. Since independence Muslim pandering dictated and dominated Indian foreign policy. Dumping diffidence and reticence, Modi took the lead, ending the pretentious, domestically orchestrated apartheid towards Israel. Modi dispassionately affirmed India’s kinship with Israel hidden in thickets of ambiguities. India’s open acknowledgment of special political relationship with Israel and empathetic personal bonding between the two leaders in part made up for Israel’s sadness of not getting recognized by the largest democracy all these years.

India, Israel relations are old, entwined by civilizational connect and share values of democracy, pluralism. Both nations which emerged from the shackles of colonialism almost the same time, faced similar challenges and dilemmas in formative stages were threatened by menace of terrorism. Unfortunately, despite the plethora of commonalities, for all its grandstanding towards Palestinian cause, India voted against creation of Israel state in 1948 and recognized Israel only in 1950 and established consul ties in 1953. Succumbing to pompous ideological thoughts, apprehensive of economic turbulence since India interests are critically linked to Arab nations, India refrained from making rapprochements to Israel. By 1960’s India quietly forged military ties with Israel. Responding to India’s military needs, anticipating diplomatic ties in return, Israel helped India during the 1962, 1965, 1971 and 1999 wars. India reciprocated Israel’s assistance by providing military spares during the Six-day war in 1967. Israel became the first country to recognize Bangladesh after the 1971 liberation war. India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992 setting stage for friendly partnership. Over the past 25 years, bilateral ties have improved markedly and the expanse of cooperation expanded with key focus on agriculture and water management. Currently 41% of India’s defence purchases are from Israel making New Delhi largest purchaser of Israeli arms. Defence deals rose to prominence in the bilateral ties since 2012. In April India signed $2 billion deal for surface-air-missile system which can shoot down aircrafts, missiles, and drones within 70km range.

Ever since establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992 by Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, five days after China, high-level diplomatic visits between both sides infused new bouts of energy. The earliest visit of first Israel President Ezer Wiezman in 1997 and Ariel Sharon’s visit in 2003 laid a strong foundation for cementing relations. But an Indian prime ministerial visit to Israel was long overdue. Modi with his epic stay in Jerusalem, struck right cords. After creation of Israel, Jerusalem was placed under international control on Dec 13^th, 1949. Jerusalem is important for Muslims, Christians and Jews and has been a contentious issue in Arab-Israeli conflict. Israel captured eastern part of Jerusalem during the six-day war. Knesset in 1980, announced that “Jerusalem, complete and united, is the capital of Israel”. As of now all embassies are in Tel Aviv, the second largest city of Israel. Israel has been pressing American to shift embassy to Jerusalem as such a move can bestow legitimacy.

Outcomes of the Visit

Modi’s visit which has been high on fellowship and sociability made good strides in terms of diplomacy by elevating the bilateral relationship to strategic partnership. Core issues of cooperation included technology, development, innovation, entrepreneurship, defence and security and special emphasis was laid on intensifying efforts in agriculture and water management. Realizing the untapped potential of the bilateral trade, leaders called for collaboration in innovation and entrepreneurship. Both countries identified areas where collaboration and cooperation can be deepened. Accordingly, $40 million innovation fund was announced, leaders agreed to expedite negotiations on free trade agreement (FTA) and set bilateral trade target of $20 billion by 2022 from present $4-5 billion.  To enhance trade ties, both leaders mulled increasing connectivity, encouraged talks on protection of investments and granting multiple-entry visas for five years for entrepreneurs. India offered to become partner country for the annual technology summit to be held in 2018. Countries have agreed to upgrade scientific and technological cooperation including “Big Data in Health Analytics”, explored the possibility of setting up networked centers of research excellence. For accelerated advancement in manufacturing, both leaders evinced the idea of linking ‘Make in India’ with ‘Make with India’.

Being victims of terrorism, both leaders condoned terrorism, reiterated strong commitment to fight it in all forms and manifestations, called for early adoption of Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT). They discussed issues related to Israeli- Palestine peace process and reaffirmed support to the agreement between Homeland and Public security. Unlike European leaders, Modi avoided making any references to Palestine/ Palestinians publicly.

Seven agreements were signed-to boost innovation, water conservation and management, agriculture, three more between ISRO and Israel Space Agency (ISA) which includes cooperation in atomic clocks. It must be recalled that ISRO is planning to hoist a replacement satellite for IRNSS1 (one of the satellites of Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) as all the three atomic clocks onboard (obtained from European countries) failed. Hence an agreement on atomic clock might be helpful. India and Israeli business leaders signed agreements worth $4.3billion (excluding defence) on the sidelines of first CEOs Forum. The infectious enthusiasm and mutually gratifying spirit of exploring business opportunities by business leaders of both communities is a welcome development. India with 1.3 billion people, burgeoning middle class has tremendous market potential and Israeli start-ups are keen on exploring business opportunities.

Modi’s trip to Israel is truly phenomenal. The extensive local media coverage and amazing hospitality extended by Netanyahu in accompanying Indian prime minister all the three days speaks for itself. Seven Indian delegations travelled to Israel prior to Prime Minister’s visit to prepare ground for an enduring partnership. Right from receiving Modi at the airport saying, “Aap ka swagat hai mere dost” in Hindi and Netanyahu’s welcome address as “Prime Minister Modi, we have been waiting for you for a long time, for almost 70 years in fact. We receive you with open arms. We love India. We admire your history, culture, democracy, commitment to progress. We view you as kindred spirits in our common quest to provide a better future for our people and for our world” explicitly summed up Israel’s latent pragmatism despite long wait towards formalization of ties with India.

Making up for the lost ground and time, Modi made effort to cement good relations. Soon after landing in Tel Aviv, Modi accompanied by Netanyahu headed to Danziger Farm, where Netanyahu showed Modi chrysanthemums named after him in honor of his historic visit. Later Modi visited Yad Vashem, Holocaust Memorial, attended Memorial ceremony in the Hall of Remembrance and toured Children’s Memorial. At the end of guided tour, he wrote, “I am deeply moved by my visit to Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum. It is as much a poignant reminder of the unspeakable evil inflicted generation ago as it is a symbol of endurance and fortitude of Jewish people. As we deal with conflict, intolerance, hatred and terror in our time, Yad Vashem serves as mirror to the society around the World. May we not forget injustices of past and its devastating toll on humanity and remembering the past. We make empower our children to make compassionate, just and righteous choices for their future”. With this touching message, Modi reached out to millions of Israelis whom people of India sympathize. He made an impromptu visit to the grave of founder of modern Zionism, Theodore Herzl upon Netanyahu’s suggestion.

Complementing Israeli exuberance, Modi enthusiastically attended various events to rekindle the squandered cultural connect. Indian Kings offered shelter to Jews who were forced to flee from various parts of World. India untouched by Anti-Semitism was perhaps the only country where Jews were not persecuted. Modi aspires to build bridges with Israel on the pillars of ancient cultural connect and aims to promote people to people connect.

Modi met Moshe Holtzberg, who lost both his parents in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks to reflect upon the malignancy of Islam terrorism that continues to threaten India and Israeli societies. The Hindu, quoted Moshe’s grandfather reaction to a call requesting for a meeting “I couldn’t believe my ears when I got call from the Indian envoy saying that PM Modi wants to meet us. My immediate thoughts were that we have not been forgotten and that Indians share our pain”. At the face of it, though the meeting seems trivial the amount of good will generated is enormous. Israel suffered several terror attacks but unlike India, the former never left perpetrator unpunished.  Reminding India’s inaction to an attack in February 2012, on the wife of military attache at embassy in New Delhi, The Haartez, newspaper reported that Netanyahu has raised the issue with Modi during his talks. Israel believes that Iranian Revolutionary Guards engineered that attack.

Modi addressed Indian Diaspora who turned out in huge numbers. He announced that Israeli citizens of Indian origin will be given Overseas Citizen of India (OIC) card, even if they served Israeli military and promised direct flights from Delhi-Mumbai-Tel Aviv. Modi visited Israel Museum for exhibition of India-Jewish Heritage at Jerusalem. Modi gifted replicas of two sets of relics from Kerala, a metal crown, Torah Scroll donated by Parades Jews In Kerala, the invaluable souvenirs of long Jewish journey in India. Recapitulating the supreme sacrifices of Indian soldiers in World War I, Modi laid wreath at Indian cemetery, Haifa, the city where 44 Indian soldiers who liberated it from Ottoman’s were put to rest. He unveiled a plaque commending valiant efforts of Major Dalpat Singh, the Hero of Haifa in 1918 battle against Turks. Month before Modi’s visit to Israel, Teen Murti Chowk was renamed as Teen Murti Haifa Chowk. Till now, it was largely believed that the three statues at the Chowk have connections to Mahatma Gandhi.  But the statues are a tribute to three famous Indian state forces (Jodhpur, Mysore and Hyderabad) who played vital role in capturing Haifa city.

Modi and Netanyahu’s rendezvous at the beach before Indian Prime Minister’s departure to Hamburg became headlines in major newspapers of both countries. Modi accompanied by Netanyahu got a demonstration of mobile desalination cum sea water purification unit, developed by Gal-Mobile Filtration Plant at the Dor beach. Later Netanyahu drove Modi along the beach in the Future-Jeep, containing the mobile purification unit. Israel’s phenomenal technological expertise in water management has surprised Modi, who was keen on adopting a similar technology to address water-scarcity problems in various parts of India.

Symbolism, ideological alignment, convergence on various issues have culminated in resurrection of Indo-Israeli ties. During his visit, Modi made conscious efforts to reflect on deep ties between India and Israel. India’s fascination and reverence towards the tiny country half the size of Kerala with 17 million population can be attributed to the unbreakable spirit of Israel and its tremendous capacity to rejuvenate itself from the abyss of tragedies. Also, Hindus share deep emotional connect with Jews. Hinduism, Judaism are the oldest Abrahamic religious, pluralistic, and faced threats from Islamists. But for all fabricated scandalous talks against both countries, they protect minorities. In fact, minorities in India are more privileged and pre-conditioned to have first right over nations resources (as envisaged by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh) than the majority. Further, India, despite its military prowess, averred from taking stern against perpetrators of terror. Hence a sizeable majority in India secretly admires Israel for ruthless persecution of abettors of terror. Though secular brigade and leftists continue to loathe India’s affinity towards Israel, an impending upswing in bilateral ties in every likelihood, is bound to cause them severe heart ache.

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Threatening Chinese transgression while Modi meets Trump

Prime Minister Modi’s successful engagement with President Trump not only fizzled out the tenor of low expectations set by the foreign policy observers but also imparted fresh energy into the Indo-US ties. Reiterating trust in bilateral ties Trump endorsed that “it (bilateral relationship) has never been better than it is today”. Indeed, the begrudging and unequivocal discomfiture of Global Times, official mouth piece of China warning New Delhi of cozying up to US succinctly sums up the new-found congruence between both countries. Just hours after the Modi-Trump bilateral talks, peeving at New Delhi, Global Times remarked “In recent years, to ratchet up geopolitical pressure on China, the US has cozied up to India. But India is not a close ally of US like Japan or Australia. To assume a role of outpost country in the US’s strategy to contain China is not in line with India’s interests. It could even lead to catastrophic results. If India regresses from its non-alignment stance and becomes a pawn for the US in countering China, it would be caught up in a strategic dilemma and new geopolitical frictions will be triggered in South Asia” (1). This threatening, condescending and contemptuous bickering of China aptly enumerates the crux of recently concluded Modi-Trump engagement.

Unlike Modi’s previous visits to US, current trip was low on tangible outcomes. A section of Indian community is visibly distraught for failing to address issues like racial crimes against Indians, H1 B visa regime etc. Setting course for propitious engagement, US administration approved sale of 22 unarmed MQ-9B Guardian drones of over $2 billion to India strengthening Indian navy’s surveillance capacity in the Indian Ocean Region, frequented by Chinese submarines. Just hours before scheduled Modi-Trump meet, US designated Syed Salauddin, Hizbul Mujahideen chief as specially designated global terrorist. Modi addressing a round table meeting of top notch US business leaders besides apprising them of slew of economic reforms undertaken by his regime stressed that “If America becomes stronger, India will be a natural beneficiary”. Keen on preserving the depth of strategic commitment, Indian side headed by NSA, Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jai Shankar strengthened Indian narrative with effective communication.

The Joint Statement: Prosperity through partnership outlined expanse of strategic partnership, reaffirmed priorities of bilateral ties and raised benchmarks. Congruence of both sides especially on issues of combatting issues of terrorism helped India to strengthen its narrative on Kashmir. Though India lobbied hard to nail Pakistan at the BRICS-BIMSTEC meet 2016 for perpetrating cross-border terror, China paralyzed New Delhi’s attempts. Unequivocal condemnation of Pakistan and its terror out-fits by US has thus been a moral victory for India. Denouncing Islamabad, both sides pledged to strengthen cooperation against groups like Al-Qaeda, Jaish-e-Mohammed, LeT and D-company and decided to set up “a new consultation mechanism on domestic and international terrorist designation listing proposals”. This comes as a welcome relief to India whose attempts to castigate Pakistan terror groups, was bulldozed repeatedly by China at the UN. US is now losing patience with Pakistan and the deteriorating security profile of Afghanistan is forcing Washington to harden its stance. Further both countries in a veiled dig reinforced that nations should resolve territorial and maritime dispute as per international law. In the process, US even endorsed India’s stand on OBOR and emphasized that connectivity initiatives should abide by “responsible debt practices” respect the territorial and integrity and sovereignty, address environmental concerns and follow the rules. Resolving to enhance maritime strategic cooperation, both countries evinced great interest in expanding the dimensions of shared maritime objectives. Rejuvenated congruence between India and US irked Beijing. Further, India’s renewed push in renovating trade ties with Kabul by air despite the encumbrances and Islamabad’s defiance to permit two-transit of goods through its borders hasn’t gone down well with China.

Assertive diplomatic outreach of Modi and India’s portrayal of OBOR as opaque system, impinging the territorial sovereignty of nation has become dagger in Chinese belly. Substantiating Indian observations, EU refused to acknowledge Chinese claims of OBOR as development initiative. EU is now reviewing anti-dumping trade laws with respect to China. New Delhi’s slow but steady elevation in geopolitical arena essentially imperiled the “Sino-Centric Asia” doctrine diligently nurtured by China ever since it emerged as the largest economy in Asia. Modi’s triumphant engagement with Trump strengthened Beijing’s qualms of India as a potential competitor. Simultaneously for Trump who found Beijing’s efforts ineffective in reining on North Korea, comprehended strategic importance of India in countering a rising China. Wary of these developments, Beijing peeved at New Delhi with jingoistic remarks. Besides upping the outlandish rhetoric Beijing revved up diplomatic escalations. Chinese transgression into India along Sikkim border at Doka La shadowing Modi’s visit to US is thus an unmissable and evocative message for India. Doka La adjoins Chumbi Valley, a mountainous terrain in Tibet abutting India and Bhutan. But the S-shaped Chumbi Valley is quite narrow and offers little room for developing robust military infrastructure. If China wants to strike India it can’t effectively station troops. On the contrary, Doka La is the only region where enjoys strategic and terrain advantage in the entire stretch of 4,057km of Indo-China border.

Unlike Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)s frequent incursions into India along LAC, which never lasted long and tensions dissipated with official interventions, present transgression is a determined effort to send a specific message to India. PLA even destroyed two Indian bunkers at Doka La which is 5km from Siliguri Corridor (Chicken Neck), the jugular vein of India. Siliguri corridor connects restive North East with rest of India and Nepal to Bhutan. It is also trijunction of India, Bhutan, Bangladesh and extremely critical for territorial integrity of India. By gaining access to Siliguri Corridor, China can pull a plug on India’s accessibility to North East and can reach the Northern periphery of Bangladesh. Consequently, China has suspended Kailash Mansarovar yatra through Nathu La pass in Sikkim which was agreed in 2014 on President Xi’s visit to India. As per MoU signed in 2014 China agreed to allow the yatra that will pass through City of Shigatse in Tibetan Autonomous Region.

In fact, Siliguri Corridor and India with its strategic geographical position are the vital missing links for the OBOR. Through CPEC passing through legitimate Indian territory China envisaged to reach Indian Ocean through Gwadar. Siliguri Corridor can be vital link in connecting Yunnan, Myanmar and Irrawady Corridor. The recent transgression to Doka La is doubly significant.

Bhutan and China have frosty relations ever since annexation of Tibet. Bhutan and China have unresolved disputes involving 764 sq km land. These include the 495 sq Km of Jakurlung and Pasamlung Valleys in north-central region and the 269sq km of Doklam plateau in the west (2). Mao Zedong enunciated that like palm, Tibet has five fingers-Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan (3). Bhutan used to be vassal state of China.  China aggressively laid claims to Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim. During the annexation of Tibet, China occupied eight Bhutanese enclaves in the West. Chinese aggression has forced Bhutan into Indian embrace. In 1949 Bhutan signed Treaty of Perpetual Peace and Friendship. Following this agreement, China began to castigate India for treating Bhutan as “Protectorate”. Brutal suppression of Tibetan resistance movement and onslaught on Tibetan Buddhism prompted Bhutan to deepen relations with India. India subsequently extended economic and military aid and established a 1000-strong Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) to train the Bhutan Royal Army. India’s defeat in 1962 Sino-Indian war raised serious doubts on Indian capacity to defend itself let alone Bhutan. Bhutan began to silently reach out to China after India took over Sikkim. From 1972 to 1984 India participated in Bhutan-China border talks. In 1984 Bhutan started direct talks with China. In 1996 China offered a “package deal” forgoing its claims over Jakurlung and Pasamlung in exchange for Doklam plateau (which includes pastoral lands of Doklam, Charithang, Sinchulumpa and Dramana).

Doklam plateau is of immense strategic significance as it is tri-junction of India-China and Bhutan and very near to Siliguri corridor. China desperately aspired to extend into the Doklam plateau since the Chumbi valley in Tibet Autonomous Region which is S-Shaped is constrained and offers less room for maneuverability. Cognizant of Doklam’s strategic importance, India stationed sizeable IMTRAT. In the meanwhile, China intensified infrastructure development in Chumbi Valley. But Bhutan was not ready to cede Doklam as the rich pastoral region of the plateau is potential source of livelihood and inimical to strategic interests of India. Bhutan is a land locked country and India has been its largest trade partner and donor. In 1998, China and Bhutan agreed to maintain status quo in the region by signing “Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility in the Bhutan-China Border Areas”. In 2007, Bhutan has replaced the 1949 treaty with India-Bhutan Friendship treaty as Monarchy in Bhutan slowly gave way to democracy. 

Despite the 1998 treaty, China relentlessly built necessary infrastructure nibbling into Doklam Plateau and expedited Charithang’s connectivity (a region in Doklam plateau, adjoining Chumbi Valley) to Lhasa and stealthily established several posts in Bhutanese territories reenacting a South China Sea (SCS). The aggressive Chinese infrastructure development in the region came to light when China honored a PLA Unit located near the Chumbi Valley (5).  This coveted appreciation was in response to India’s move to raise 17 Mountain Strike Corps (an additional troop strength of 90,274 dedicated to China), deployed 100 T-72 battle tanks in Ladakh, flew a Sukhoi-30 fighter jet near Pasigath and activated several Advance Landing Grounds in Arunachal Pradesh. China smartly sent a message of preparedness to India by honoring PLA unit. Reciprocally China inducted additional PLA troops to Chumbi Valley, deployed J-20 stealth fighters and FC-1 Xiaolong light combat aircraft (LCA).

China’s transgression into Doka La was aimed at sending a geopolitical message to warning India against deepening strategic and economic cooperation with US. China’s statement defending Pakistan, “We oppose all forms of terrorism. We also clearly stated we oppose linking terrorism to certain countries” after US designated Syed Salahuddin as global Terrorist should be read along similar lines. Indeed, Indo-Chinese ties have touched a new low after India refused to stall Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang in April despite mounting Chinese protests. Ever since, series of developments including India expediting infrastructure development in Arunachal Pradesh, opening of Asia’s longest Dhola-Sadiya bridge in Assam, obstinate reluctance to attend the BRI Summit made China listless. A defiant China, accustomed to an accommodating India was irrevocably troubled by its assertiveness.

Global Times outlandish rebuke of “by all necessary means” New Delhi must be “taught the rules” and “it is not time for India to display arrogance towards china. India’s GDP is one-quarter of China’s and its annual defence budget is just one-third. Having a friendly relationship and cautiously handling border issues with China is its best choice” summed up everything.

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