India’s evocative message to Pakistan’s pernicious game plan

The recent bold references to human rights violation perpetrated by Pakistan in Gilgit- Baltistan and Balochistan by Prime Minister Modi at the All Party Meeting and in his Independence Day address from ramparts of Red Fort marks a sudden shift in India’s stratagem towards Pakistan. Modi’s remarks are viewed as a tactical retort to Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit’s complacent statement that Pakistan is dedicating its Independence Day to Kashmir’s freedom. India’s Balochistan outreach can be traced back to Ajit Doval’s stern warning to Pakistan “you do one more Mumbai, you lose Balochistan”. The temerity of Doval’s doctrine gradually made way to Modi’s Pakistani outreach which included a sudden stopover to Lahore to wish Prime Minister Sharif on his birthday. While Pathankot attacks unhallowed India’s hopes of peace with the neighbor, turbulence in Kashmiri Valley reflected Pakistan’s agenda of bleeding India with thousand cuts. Latest reference to Balochistan witnesses emergence of Modi-Doval Doctrine   marking an end to India’s hesitation to raise the issue of Balochistan when dealing with Pakistan. A sharp overview of the string of events that unfurled in the region in the past fortnight may help in appreciating the need for sudden shift in Indian strategy.

The quick turn of Pakistan-instigated events in the past five weeks has virtually pushed Kashmir Valley into chaos. Insidious perpetration of violence by Pakistan in the valley is now established beyond an iota of doubt. 22 year-old, Bahadur Ali, alias Saifuddin LeT who was captured in the North Kashmir by Indian security forces strengthened India’s suspicions. During the interrogations by National Intelligence Agency (NIA) he admitted to have worked for Jamat-Ud-Dawaa (JuD) headed by Hafeez Saeed from an age of 14. He was radicalized and motivated to join Jihadi movement after watching the videos of Kashmiri separatist Asiya Andrabi, head of all-female group of Dukhtaran-e-Millat and other anti-India propagandists. Later he was trained and armed by the LeT (Laskhar-e-Taiba) under the aegis of Pakistan Military. For the past two years, he was working for Falah-e-Insaniyat (FIF), an NGO of LeT controlled by Hafiz Khaled Waheed, son-in-law of Hafeez Saeed. He revealed that a batch of three LeT terrorists, including him were pushed into Indian side around July 11-12 to foment terror. He said that when he got separated from others, he was scared and called LeT command centre PoK-3 headed by Khalid Waheed, who chided him to carry his orders. Ali’s confessions has added heft to India’s assertions of Pakistan’s role in Kashmir valley.

Pakistan’s Denial

Following the confessions of Bahadur Ali, India summoned Pakistan high commissioner Abdul Basit for promoting unabated infiltration of militants across the border and issued a demarche. As expected Pakistan immediately denied all the allegations. It claimed to have strictly adhered to the precincts of not allowing use of its territories for militant activities. Till now, India has submitted numerous dossiers but unfortunately nothing has ever changed.  Indeed submission of dossiers to Pakistani counterparts is rather churlish as Islamabad refuses to take any action under the ruse of insufficient evidence. In the latest move, India has allowed consular access to Bahadur Ali, made demarche public and allowed airing of confession of captured terrorist. Still Pakistan continues to feign ignorance and remains in denial mode. 

Overview of terror outfits

Though sanctions were imposed on various militant outfits that emanated from Pakistan’s deep state, international sanctions seems to have lost relevance over a period of time. Pakistan defied all international dictums. By cleverly changing the semantics of various outfits Pakistan is evading censure from international bodies. Primal militant organization, LeT was formed in 1990 with headquarters at Murdike, 30 km from Lahore. Funds from Saudi Arabia and assistance from ISI kept it afloat whereby it launched an armed struggle in Kashmir. After the attacks on Indian Parliament in 2001, LeT was banned. Later LeT’s co-founder Hafeez Saeed formed JuD. JuD has funds worth 400 crores of which, nearly half of them are obtained from illegal narcotic and arms smuggling. Besides, donations and assistance packages from Pakistan government keeps its coffers overflowing. JuD masterminded 26/11 Mumbai Attacks. Following an international outcry UN imposed financial sanctions and Pakistan was forced to ban JuD. Subsequently JuD began carrying out its nefarious activities under the banner of NGO FIF, a humanitarian relief and charitable organization.

Reports indicate that in 2010 militant outfits under the banner of FIF, delivered relief supplies to flood-affected people in POK and simultaneously expedited the process of radicalization & anti-India propaganda. Recently, acting on a tip-off, US designated FIF as foreign terrorist organization. Further, Saudi Arabia authorities while unearthing the links to attacks in Medina traced its origins to radicalization activities of FIF. Under the garb of charity, the militants are now trying to woo Kashmiris by dispatching food and relief supplies to the valley through FIF. The duplicity of Pakistan is glaringly repulsive.

 

 

India has refused Pakistan’s offer of supplies and India’s response can be summed up in the following clips:

 

The extent of Pakistan’s jingoistic rhetoric on Kashmir is inconceivable. It started running Azadi train carrying the posters of Burhan Wani across Pakistan.

 

Internationalizing Kashmir Issue

Pakistan rejuvenated interest towards Kashmir issue stems from various developments in the sub-continent. Counter-terrorism cooperation has become bedrock of Modi’s foreign policy outreach drawing lot of support from unexpected corners. India under Modi forged agreements with various nations for strengthening cooperation in intelligence sharing, monitoring terror outfits and tracking financial transactions. Modi’s flagrant amiability among Muslim countries and India’s growing comity among Pakistan’s neighbors has discomfited Islamabad. Pakistan began to feel the heat. Conjured with fleeting containment and stoppage of fund flows from US, Pakistan upped ante against India with a vise-like strangle hold on Kashmir.

Ashok Malik in his article outlined a plausible game play adopted by Pakistan. Latest global developments have driven Pakistan into Chinese embrace. To evade questions on the legality of planned China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the disputed territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), Pakistan began its campaign at the UN by internationalizing Kashmir insurgency. He elaborates that the primary purpose of CPEC plan is not about enhancing the economic opportunities and seeking access to Arabian Sea. But under the ensign of infrastructure development through CPEC both countries are steadily installing military bases at strategic locations and integrating the region. To justify the construction of CPEC in disputed territory, China and Pakistan have colluded to turn Kashmir into bedlam of terror by stoking passions of civilians. With India slowly but steadily expressing concerns over latest developments in POK in bilateral talks with China and other international interlocutors, the onus of justification of CPEC is mounting. POK issue is finding a greater mention in international discourses with India raising the issue at UN General Assembly in 2015, in response to Sharif’s four point agenda. China’s international reputation which hit a low note for condemning the verdict of Court of Permanent Arbitration will be subject to more scrutiny for its involvement in developing military installations in a disputed region. To subvert the international comeuppance the duo are effectively raking up the Kashmiri rhetoric.

Previously Pakistan’s vociferous tirade against India was focused on denial of azadi to Kashmir. Now it has changed its stance. It no longer plays a second fiddle to voices of azadi but desperately aspires to annex the Indian part of Kashmir, safely overruling the fact that Kashmir is integral part of India. By making vicious propaganda about the killings of civilians, it intends to extend its claims over Indian part of Kashmir. Accentuated Sino-Pakistan ties emboldened Pakistan. Its bellicosity is reflected in the strident tenor and brazen public parade of strategic assets on streets of Islamabad protesting Rajnath Singh’s visit. Adding weight to these voices, Nawaz Sharif too sharpened attacks on Kashmir Valley turbulence. Declaration of black day, questioning of human rights violations at UN earlier this month were all small ploys in the larger scheme. Sharif’s references to Kashmir in a public speech in PoK hinting at eventual annexation are an outcome of the growing Pakistan-China nexus in the region. Vicious attacks of separatists against Indian state, orchestrated public outrage added more heft to this fictitious strategy.

Violating Indus Water Treaty

Now, Pakistan besides fanning terror in Kashmir it violating the Indus Waters treaty and contemplating to institute new arbitration proceedings against India at Hague. India is perhaps the only Asian country to have sealed landmark water sharing agreements with lower riparian states- Pakistan and Bangladesh. Honoring the rather unfavorable arbitrations, India amicably settled water sharing issues.  Violating the agreement of 1960 of mutually settling the issue, Pakistan is now seeking intervention of a third party. Pakistan is raising objections to construction of hydro-electric power projects- Kishenganga and Ratle. Ironically, Pakistan’s all-weather friend-China a birth place for several rivers hasn’t signed a single agreement with over 10 countries into which these waters flow. It is time India stops being overwhelmingly generous and naïve. New Delhi should now endeavor to garner support of like-minded countries, strengthen it claims on PoK, draw international attention to human rights violations in PoK and refer Pakistan’s prevarications to UN Security Council.  With Pakistan going all guns blazing to keep the valley boiling, Indian Parliament engaged in debate on Kashmir unanimously passed a resolution “appealing to the people of Kashmir Valley to restore peace and harmony”. Instead of raising tirade against Pakistan Indian political parties displayed abominable naivety by persisting on going ahead with dialogue process.

For the past seven decades, being a larger partner, India was considerate and offered several concessions to Pakistan (Shimla Agreement and Lahore Agreement). Smitten by acerbic animosity Pakistan always denigrated Indian disposition. Intriguingly so, Indian politicians too refused to learn lessons and diligently worked to engage with Pakistan and other stake holders controlled by Pakistan to discuss Kashmir issue. (While engagement with stakeholders is highly recommended for comprehensive integration, India failed to identify relevant stakeholders).Till now Pakistan has been raising Kashmir issue at every possible international forum even as the POK region has been silently bearing the brunt of Pakistani atrocities. India’s continued silence, muted response and uncharacteristic detachment from POK might be counterintuitive. Soon all narratives on massive human right violations carried out by Pakistan in POK will disappear from international discourse. While Rajnath Singh’s assurance in the Parliament that no talks will be held on Kashmir but only on POK is reassuring, India must strictly adhere to this new dictum. If India fails to raise from its seventy year old defensive enigma of fixing and resolving the Kashmir issue India forever will be mired in the stumbling block. Moreover with China indirectly aiding, supporting and goading Pakistan’s brutal cross-border terrorism India must now assert its claims over the entire province of Jammu and Kashmir. Else Pakistan’s iniquitous plans might contend that POK is not a disputed territory but its legitimate territory and that India illegally occupied Kashmir.

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An overview of National Writers Meet

As the largest democratic nation in the World Indian realm should have been dominated by diverse narratives. But unfortunately a predominant narrative considered to be forthright, refined, elitist, and modern has been ruling the roost. All other interpretations or thought-process are branded as brusque, orthodox, outdated and jingoistic. Over a period of time the dominant narrative has become “the voice” transcending the aspirations, voices of select Indian intellectuals. Eventually these interpretations prevailed, flourished and thrived in the independent India and occupied the center stage. Interestingly this dominant narrative was never put to a litmus test to validate its unbiased explication since it is lionized as the pragmatic outlook for the country. This intimidating narrative with vested agendas, consciously denigrated the Indian cultural ecosystem, augured separatism and despised traditional heritage. As a result, the spirit of positive development suffered gross neglect. Despite the grotesque misrepresentations of the aspirations of the 1.25 billion these voices dominated and began to cast a shadow on the World’s understanding of India as a sovereign, democratic and modern nation state. This tyranny had a strangle hold on Indian elected governments, held its sway for decades, downplayed India and proved propitious for our warring neighboring nations. On the other hand, the desideratum which sought to revamp, resurrect the positive developmental goals were muzzled.

The deluge of corruption, omniscient nepotism, red-tape and rampant indecisiveness that existed during the decade long UPA regime frittered away gains of economic development. In absence of a dynamic and visionary leadership, the country slogged through a regime of diffidence. Clouds of despondency and frustration loomed over the nation. People longed for progress, economic development and aspired for a new change. These pragmatic aspirations began to overwhelm the collective Indian intellect giving impetus to a new era of alternative narratives that eloquently yearned for a vibrant India. Though alternative narratives have always existed, the overwhelming appetite for change aspired by new generation gave fresh impetus. This cumulative yearning dismantled inept political establishment but couldn’t make significant impact on the thought process of civil society. To realize the dream of vibrant India, torrential waves of change should become part of normal discourse. The alternative narratives which were alienated and muzzled be empowered. Dr. Syama Prasad Mookherji Research Foundation of New Delhi, in a bid to promote the alternative narratives organized a National Writers Meet on the theme “Space for acceptance of alternative narratives and ideologies in a new-age India” at New Delhi on July 30-31, 2016.

The meet attended by aspirational and dynamic writers had the privilege of interacting with Indian Stalwarts who emphatically nurtured alternative narratives. As preemptive remarks, Dr. Bibek Debroy, Member of NITI Aayog on “How Modi Government is redefining Governance”, deciphering the paradigm of minimum government and maximum governance. To objectively fulfill foundational vision of cooperative federalism, Modi government replaced the planning commission with a think-tank, NITI Aayog. NITI essentially fosters involvement and participation of states in economic-policy making with Indian Union, provides knowledge, promotes innovation and offers entrepreneurial support. Later, Dr. Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, Rajya Sabha MP spoke about “Antodaya Inspired Development”. The concept of antodaya or reaching out to the last man has been cornerstone of the BJP’s economic agenda. Speaking about the need for recalibrating discourse through art, the maker of Buddha at Traffic Jam, Vivek Agnihotri, indicated that exclusivity of dominant narratives grossly failed to depict Indian culture.

Indian political realm was dominated by panoply of political parties. But a selective bunch of parties remained relevant and popular among the masses. Mercurial rise of political parties in the recent past evoked debates on the relevance of allegiance to any particular ideology for its long term functioning. Speaking about Ideology and Politics Today, Amit Shah, National President, BJP lamented that majority of Indian political parties are reduced to family bastions and gravely lacked any ideological commitments. He asserted that politics without ideology is meaningless. Wading through murky political waters with firm ideological commitment is an arduous task. Unlike other political outfits, he claimed BJP endured rigors of grueling political journey to emerge as largest political party in the world with 11 crore membership.

In line with the theme of the seminar, M. J. Akbar, Minister of State for External Affairs spoke about different narratives-capitalism, communism, colonialism and fascism that inimitably changed the trajectory of the World. Reshaping thought process, intellectual revolutions during the course of history challenged dominant narratives and offered new directions. Precisely India too has reached a point where new paradigms of change must steer nation towards positive development. Indian society is currently battling an orchestrated phase of isolationism. Vested interests have crassly divided the society exploiting the hierarchical distinctions of caste, creed and religion. A network of the media-politician nexus has been shamelessly exploiting the fault lines in the society through brazen distortion of doctrines. Consequently, the doctrines of select group of freedom fighters, iconoclastic intellectuals are idolized, owned and venerated by scrupulous political parties to push forward their agendas. Dr. B.R. Ambedkar was one such icon whose thoughts and ideas about the Hinduism were irreversibly contorted and exploited to draw political mileage. Dispelling popular misconceptions, writer, Arvindan Neelakandan enlightened the group about the role played by Ambedkar in Hinduvta movement and cultural nationalism. The dominant narratives that swayed the Indian polity and academia, indiscriminately divided the diverse Indian society along various lines. It is unfortunate that this influential academia willfully allowed the continuation of dishonest and ill-informed facts about India in the American curriculum too. Drawing attention to California Text book issues where India has been replaced by South Asia, Vamsee Juluri spoke about the intransigent stance of well-placed, highly influential South Asia Faculty Group (SAFG). SAFG recommended replacement of Hinduism with “religion of ancient India” grossly denigrating the identities of the 800 million Hindus. While all other religious are critically read, interpreted and respected, Hinduism was intentionally singled out for its inequities.

Concluding the illuminating series on the alternative narratives, Swapan DasGupta, Member of Parliament and an experienced columnist eloquently summarized independent India’s illustrious journey. India’s independence besides, signaling emergence of modern nation states blew a formidable blow to European Colonialism. Though India was liberated from the shackles of the western colonial powers, Indian minds still plagued by subordination sought refuge in western compliance. Unfortunately, 800 years of formidable subjugation and foreign invasions endured by India stymied its sense of self-assurance. The veneration, reverence, appreciation towards indigenous culture, identity and values have steadily eroded. As a result a counter-establishment strengthened by borrowed doctrines and narratives of foreign land began to dominate the Indian polity, media, intellectuals and academia. Anything remotely connected to India or emulating “Indianness” is undermined, alienated and subjected to scrutiny. Anything inherently Indian or indigenous is ridiculed. As a result centuries old colossal Indian treasure troves remain unexplored, uncared and unused. It is time to resurrect, respect and uphold the values of our illustrious civilization; promote narratives that represent, reflect and uphold the aspirations of Indians. 

 

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Rajnath Singh's visit to Pakistan met with vituperative animosities

Pakistan has intensified its infiltration bids this year. Official reports substantially confirmed it indicating that 90 infiltration bids were made till June 30^th as opposed to 29 during the same period in 2015. Of them 54 were reported to be successful. In the face-off between Indian security forces and Pakistani infiltrators, 10 CRPF personnel, 3 BSF jawans were martyred and 50 personnel sustained severe injuries. Indian security forces so far captured a huge haul of 94,000 Kalashnikov rifles from infiltrators. The colossal cache of arms is truly intimidating and is indicative of the scale of infiltration. Experts opined that rejuvenated Pakistan’s deep state support for the terror outfits and the compelling indoctrination of the localities have turned the tide in favor of Pakistan. The inclement infiltrations and insidious attacks of infiltrators that claimed lives of 8 CRPF personnel returning from a training session at Pampore aggravated the tensions further. On July 8^th in a joint operation launched by J&K police and 19 Rashtriya Rifles at Kokernag, 22-year old Hizbul-Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani, and two militants-Sartaj Ahmed Sheik and Pervaiz Ahmed Laskhari were killed. Militant outfits who lacked a strong leadership found one in Wani. He resurrected the jihadi movement by romanticizing it through the social media. Soon he acclaimed poster boy status in the Kashmir Valley. His death significantly altered the strategic dynamics of Pakistan’s jihadi movement. Seizing the opportunity, Pakistani terror networks with its sympathizers vitiated atmosphere in the Valley by demonizing India and arousing anti-India narratives. Civilians created a massive unrest in the Valley, launched attacks on police states, airbases, torched vehicles and began hurling stones at the Indian security who were trying to restore law and order. Curfew was clamped in the valley. Civilians defied the orders and with situation slipping out of hands, security forces were prompted to use force.

In a bid to internationalize the Kashmir insurgency, Pakistan dragged India to UN for alleged human rights violations in the valley. India in its toughest ever rebuttal, decimated Pakistan’s allegations. The Pakistan’s anti-India tirade was meted with subdued response from World nations. All along Pakistan carried out a vicious propaganda alleging Indian brutality against the Kashmiris and exonerated its deep state of any interventions. Indeed with Pakistan receiving an invaluable support from the media sympathizers and the leftist brigade of India which condemned security forces for acting against the hostile mobs, Pakistan downplayed the clandestine role of its terror outfits for fuelling unrest in the valley. Last week, unambiguous evidences unearthed by various agencies clearly deciphered the calamitous strategies rolled out the Pakistan based militant outfits for the Valley. Unabated free run of Pakistan-bred terrorists across the border and blatant unleashing of terror has become glaringly significant. It has emerged that mosques in the valley are now routinely playing the audio recordings of the jihadists. The recordings can be accessed @- https://clyp.it/j5blfhj0 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Nf7MoREgl4 proclaimed of “hum subz pancham wali kashmir mein leharayengee meaning “We will flutter Pakistan’s green flag in the Kashmir Valley” and urged that “we are Pakistani, Pakistan is ours, long live Pakistan and what do we want, freedom, the kind of freedom that Burhan wanted.” The Burhan wali azaadi is indeed nothing short of Pakistan’s agenda of imposing sharia in the Valley. The fight for self-determination carried out by Kashmiris took an unprecedented turn from 1990’s when the azaadi movement was swamped by Pakistan trained militants deftly twisted it to realize its dream of imposing steadily in the state sharia. The myth of the freedom movement upheld by Pakistani militants is busted by the pugnacious pamphlets making rounds in the Valley recently.

A former senator Afrasiab Khattak in his column, opined that sudden escalation of terror can be traced to death of the Afghan Taliban head, Mullah Mansour in a drone attack by US in the restive province of Quetta on May 29^th. On May 30^th under the aegis of Defense of Pakistan Council, pro-jihadist groups decided to escalate attacks on Afghanistan and other neighbouring countries. During Ramzan month, these groups publicly collected funds from individuals and mosques. Government in the meanwhile allotted 300 million rupees to Haqqania groups. The financial support from government has undoubtedly empowered these outfits. Earlier in 2014, rattled Peshawar school mass killings, Pakistan displayed a unique conviction to wage war against terror and this disposition was evident in Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the National Action Plan (NAP) that proscribed certain outfits. But steadily the anti-terror stance eroded as a result the designated good terror outfits like Afghan Taliban, JuD, JeM were allowed to rearm. The Pervez Musharraf’s enlightened moderation resulted in rejuvenation of terror outfits.

Currently, Rajnath Singh’s visit to Pakistan is nixed by vituperative animosities. Home Minister Rajnath Singh is all set to leave for Islamabad to attend the South Asian Association Region Conference (SAARC) interior ministers meeting at Islamabad on Tuesday. The visit comes at a time when India-Pakistan relations have touched a new low. Despite Pakistan’s orchestrated Kashmiri insurgency honoring the commitment of working towards promoting peace, harmony and regional cooperation India will be represented by the Home Minister at the meet. Though the decision was severely criticized, Indian government maintained that it was a multilateral engagement and it was incumbent on India as the largest partner to foster South Asian outreach. Ruling out possibility of any bilateral talks, India downsized its contingent. India initially wanted to use this opportunity to remind Pakistan of its promise of permitting Indian team’s visit to Pakistan to investigate Pathankot attacks. But now, India affirmatively aims at puncturing the false of Pakistan which paints itself as victim of terror and to expose its hypocrisy.

To sabotage Rajnath Singh’s visit to Islamabad, 26/11 Hafiz Sayeed warned of country wide protests. Lashing out at Singh as the killer of Kashmiris, the Jamat-ud-Dawa leader who has $10 million bounty on head appealed to Pakistan to pull out its High Commissioner from India. Syed Salahuddin, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) chief called on Prime Minister Sharif to cancel Singh’s visit and suspend all trade and business engagements with India. The audacious, abominable warnings by the UN-designated terrorists is highly deplorable and reflective of decadence of civilian administration in Pakistan. While Pakistan feigns to be a democracy country, the real power centre is military establishment and Prime Minister is a nominal head. Outlandish ranting of Pakistan terrorists clearly demonstrates, the delinquency of Pakistan Prime Minister. Truly the powers of Prime Minister are vanquished. Terrorists, perpetuated, nurtured and sheltered in Pakistan are now dictating its foreign policy. The country is now run by the deep state. Nawaz Sharif’s solidarity with Kashmir and announcement of July 19^th as black day and protests march spearheaded by political outfit Jamaat-i-Islam with terror outfits JuD, HuM from Lahore City to Wagah border on July 31st unequivocally authenticates Pakistan’s agenda of raking up Kashmir issue. The temerity of terrorist outfits and their glaring public outreach, aggrandized government support especially in Punjab province is a subtle warning that Pakistan has now brazenly accentuated its attacks in India. Indian administration must be cautious of the obnoxious proxy war waged by Pakistan in Kashmir valley. A prelude of incidents too testimonies anti-India agenda of Pakistan. Kashmir has been Pakistan’s jugular vein and with no holds barred, the deep state is now very keen on pushing its agenda forward. Any attempts of any kind of engagement by India at this stage is contemporaneous to its scheme of things. While India has put the onus of security of Rajnath Singh on Pakistan, clearly the terror outfits are ruling the roost. The unabashed public presence of banned terror organizations are clearly aiming to score a massive victory with US preoccupied in Presidential elections.

Turkey’s Journey from Kemalism to Erdoganism

Turkey’s failed coup of July 15^th reminisces its incredible journey from the Ataturk’s secularism to Islamic overtures of Erdogan. The formidable Ottoman Empire, the last trans-continental Islamic Caliphate that reigned for over seven centuries crumbled following a devastating defeat in World War I. The legendary Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, struggled to crave modern day Turkey from the vestiges of the Islamic Caliphate, aspired to steer clear off the Persian influences and embraced Western thinking. Motivated by the phenomenal transformation brought about the industrial revolution, Ataturk consciously banned and erased the influences of Persian Civilization. Besides, enshrining the ideals of secularism and democracy in the Constitution of Turkey, he entrusted the task of upholding founding principles with Turkish Army.

As a guardian of Turkish democracy, over the past 60 years, military intervened whenever the country abdicated the constitutional order. So far, Turkey faced five coups and each time after the coup, military handed over the power to the politicians. Turkey encountered first coup on May 27^th, 1960 when President and Prime Minister were tried for treason, misuse of public funds and abrogation of constitution. It was followed by 1971 Turkish Military Memorandum to restore normalcy after unrest caused by economic recession. The 1980 Turkish Coup contained escalation of clashes between left and right wing groups. In 1993 covert military coup was attempted and in 1997 Turkish Military memorandum caused forced resignation of Islamic Welfare Party Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. Welfare Party with roots in the Mili Gorus Islamist movement (the largest Islamic Organization of the West, warranted against close relations with Europe) was the first political party in Turkey with Islamist leanings. Post-Coup Welfare Party suffered a vertical divide. A splintered branch under the name of Justice &Development Party (AKP) led by current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clinched power in 2002 with mere 34% of vote share. AKP retained strong Islamic orientation of Mili Gorus but was inclusive with proclivity to West. Shortly after assuming power, to accelerate expedite the accession process, Erdogon smartly reduced the powers of military and congruently brought about civilian-military balance of power in line with EU’s mandated stipulations. Erdogan impetuously pushed forward the agenda of obtaining EU membership. He tamed the Turkish Army forces and installed a pliant leadership at the helm of affairs. In line with the Copenhagen criteria he designated more power to civilian regime and sidelined the National Security Council (MGK) authority. Despite Erdogan’s rebalancing acts, military issued deft warnings to AKP when it tried to appoint Abdullah Gul as its presidential candidate in 2007 and reprimanded AKP for undermining the secular credentials of Turkey.

To downsize the influence of military, AKP and Gulenists worked in tandem. Gulenists are followers of Fethullah Gulen, a writer, Imam (who preaches Sunni (Hanafi) version of Islam), preacher and a politician. Western media, portrays him as an Imam with moderate ideas promoting tolerant Islam, emphasizes hard work and education. He strongly abhorred the secular traditions of Turkey and condemned the authoritarian secular brigade. Post 1980 coup, Turkish authorities believed that Gulen can topple the government and hence imprisoned him for six years. He was again tried on charges of treason in 1999 following which he escaped to US on pretext of medical treatment. He stayed back in Pennsylvania and obtained green card in 2001. Gulen or Hizmat movement has immense following and most of his followers in Turkey hold higher positions in Judiciary and police forces. But by and large Gulenists are opposed to the secular brigade of Turkey and wanted to liberate Turkey from the shackles of the secular traditions by penetrating the administrative set-up. Judiciary and Police Forces are riddled by Gulenists. Hence, when AKP came to power and had to bear the tough opposition of the secular forces they found a natural ally in Gulenists as both ardently adhere to Sunni Islam. Together they, witch-hunted senior military officials, opposition leaders, journalists, media personnel by fabricating stories, planting evidence and finally prosecuting them for indulging in nefarious activities. The Ergenekon trials of 2008 and Sledgehammer case of 2010, successfully implicated 15% of senior military officers. Military officials are imprisoned on allegations of attempting to remove a democratically elected government by staging a coup. Charges included a detailed plan of bombing two Istanbul Mosques and accuse Greece of shooting Turkish Plane flying over Aegean Sea which can create chaos and justifying a military coup. By making expositions in the media, AKP and Gulenists garnered enough support to prosecute the officials on the basis of fabricated charges. To effectively dethrone the towering presence of Turkish military, AKP and Gulenists together forged alliance.

By 2012 overpowered by mutual distrust and Gulenists stiff resistance to AKP’s peace negotiations with Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) the rift widened. With the summoning of National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) chief, a confidant of Erdogan by Gulenists in the judiciary regarding the PKK issue, relations between the allies turned sour. By November 2013, Erdogan destroyed the alliance by closing prep schools, which are source of finances and recruitment for Gulenists. These were followed by retaliatory raids conducted by Gulenists on the family members of Erdogan and alliance ministers of AKP. Implicating them of stashing hordes of Gold, Gulenists triggered protests that called for Erdogan’s resignation. While AKP espoused Political Islam Gulenists expounded the values of cultural Islam. But apparently, the objectives of Gulenists are not clear. Both factions affirmatively reinforced faith in Islamist agenda hence the clashes can be construed as tug of war for power. The extensive network of Gulenists infiltrated nearly every arm of administration. With Gulenists literally occupying higher positions in administration they ran a parallel state. Erdogan survived the collective backlash unleashed by Gulenists in 2013. But to counter the powerful disposition of Gulenists in powerful positions, he ruthlessly expunged them from all arenas of administration. He targeted the media houses, banks, bureaucrats, entrepreneurs who were part of Gulenist movement. Further, Erdogan dissociated himself from the Ergenekon trials and sledgehammer cases. Court overturned some of the convictions made under these trials. Erdogan effectively played victim card and galled at Gulenists, working as “state within a state”. He designated the intricate network of Gulenists as Gulen Terrorist Organisation (FETO) or Parallel State Organization by December 2015 and accused them of infiltrating the administration to unseat the government.

In the meanwhile the top military brass who were implicated in fabricated cases were stripped off their positions and replaced by more tractable officials. Erdogan thus restrained the unbridled authority of military. Hence all serving chiefs of armed forces are now intense loyalists of Erdogan. By 2014, the chaos and massive unrest in Syria began to dominate the Turkish politics. After the cessation of cease fire agreement with the Kurdish militants, military was designated with the task of conducting hot pursuits. With PKK abdicating the guerilla warfare and began targeting army check posts, urban dwellings and launching bomb attacks military intensified its operations and was busy in combing operations. These relentless operation had its toll on military. While it elevated their stature and bestowed overwhelming authority and power, a faction of army was disgruntled by Erdogan’s role in fabrication of false charges against them. They were intensely worried about the growing authoritarianism of Erdogan and had qualms about his religious conservatism.

This disgruntled faction of the armed forces led by retired colonel Muharrem Kose is now believed to have launched the coup. Unlike the previous coups, this attempt was rather amateurish wherein even the President who was holidaying in Marmaris could fly to Istanbul without any trouble. Moreover, he reached out to 80million Turkish people and urged them to occupy streets and repel the “enemies of democracy”. As against the formidable tasks of killing or capturing the President or Prime Minister of Turkey. The plotters managed to hold the chief of general staff as hostage briefly. Coup which started at 10pm at night began with closure of the Bosphorous Strait that connects Europe with Asia. Parliament Building, President’s Palace and Prime Minister’s residence were attacked. Though the plotters opened fire on the protestors leading to the death of 50 civilians, ground forces of putschists eventually gave in. But the aerial forces of plotters put on stiff resistance, indicating that the toughest opponents of Erdogan regime hailed from Turkish Air Forces. Till now almost 28% of the top brass of Turkish Army were arrested for their alleged involvement in coup. Aborted coup, empowered Erdogan in two ways- Firstly, despite hatred for Erdogan his staunch political opponents didn’t support coup attempt instead they joined protests and condemned it. Secondly, his plummeting popularity received a new lease with people remarkably responding to his call of taking to streets to stall the plotters. These events bestowed him with a moral high ground to take on his former political ally, Gulenists.

Clinching this rare opportunity, Erdogan lashed out at Fethullah Gulen for mastering the coup and officially launched the extradition process from the US. In the meanwhile conflicting theories are afloat in media with critics opining that Erdogan himself might have orchestrated the coup following his sinking popularity among people. The conspiracy theory of US administration executing the coup to topple Erdogan regime through Gulenists began to take a huge toll on the already sour US-Turkey relationships. Ever since, US allied with Kurdish forces in Syria to fight IS, Turkey had serious misgivings with US. The relations further deteriorated with US and the West questioning Erdogan’s sanctions on press and media. At the height of cold war, US welcomed Turkey into NATO for its enviable military prowess and to counter the aggressive spread of Russian allies in the region. Turkey is a key ally of NATO and US under the “Agreement for the cooperation on the uses of Atomic energy for Mutual Defense purposes signed in 1959,” began to build up nuclear assets in Turkey. US retained B-61 gravity bombs, nuclear artillery shells in Adana (Incirlik) Air base. US and Turkish Forces trained together to carry the nuclear weapons on planes. Failed coup attempts stoked fears about the safety and security of the nuclear weapons deployed by US in Turkey. US may now reassess its operations from Turkey and may look for alternative forward bases to launch attacks against IS. Meanwhile, Turkey stiffened its stance on extraditing Gulen with Prime Minister Binali Yildirim indicating that Turkey will go for a war with any country supporting Gulen.

Post-coup Turkey’s position on international arena has become fragile. Aside NATO’s serious reconsiderations about Turkey’s role, EU diplomats expressed concerns about probable surge in migrant exodus to Europe. Besides, Erdogan’s relentless Gulenist Purge has rattled the international community. As of now 60,000 educators, judges and police were suspended and 13,000 are arrested on charges of coup. With Turkish authorities openly announcing plausible execution of the alleged plotters, human rights organizations and especially European leaders are rattled. The worst fears are exacerbated with Turkey pulling out from the European Human Rights Court which bans executions. The West is now increasingly worried about Turkey’s reckless disposition on mass executions of alleged coup plotters. Mass executions can irreversibly damage Turkey’s chances of EU accession. In March Turkey was close to clinching a migration deal with EU wherein it would shelter Syrian migrants reaching Greece in return for relocating Syrians in Turkey across various EU countries. To stem flow of refugees EU promised to deliver $3billion cash and offer a visa-free travel to Turks into Schengen region. Though European leaders are keen on upholding the migration deal which can reduce refugee inflows, they are reluctant to offer visa-free travel to Turks. Turkey has been struggling to comply with the 72 odd legal and technical clauses mandated by EU to obtain visa-waiver. Failed coup now raised fresh concerns about Turkey’s compliance to human rights violation and implementation of anti-terrorism legislation. Meanwhile, Erdogan upped his ante against Europe for failing to deliver the cash of $3 billion as promised.

Erdogan who affirmed the coup as gift of Allah, will now obliterate opposition, purge Gulenists from civil services, administration and literally annihilate dissent in any form. With no holds barred, he will now attempt to change the existing constitution that bestows very limited powers to President. Erdogan who has become notoriously authoritative in the past decade would continue to amend the constitution to have absolute powers. His Islamic leanings and the intolerance might greatly polarize the Turkish society escalating tensions. Slowly but steadily the founding principles, democratic order and secular traditions may erode. Turkey which was an epitome of Islamic tolerance may face the torment of religious and secular divide. With Turkish army failing the secularists as ultimate protector, the one-man show might soon plunge Turkey into abyss of intolerance and jihadi culture. The counter revolution against the founding principles of modern republic like Turkey in West Asia is truly disheartening. Gradual descent of Turkey from the iconic moderate Islam to religious conservatism is exasperating.

 

 

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