On August 15th, Taliban took over Kabul ushering the country into a despotic rule. India at the helm of UNSC presidency during the Kabul fall has been instrumental in bringing out the UNSC resolution 2593 to effectively deal with Taliban in Afghanistan. The resolution passed on Aug 30th demands that Afghan territory shouldn’t be used to threaten or attack any other country or to shelter and train terrorists.
The resolution calls for safe
passage and departure of Afghans and foreigners who wish to leave Afghanistan,
unhindered access to UN agencies, strengthening of efforts for humanitarian
assistance to the country, upholding the rights of women, minorities, children
and sought for an inclusive and negotiated political settlement.
Unlike other legislations,
UNSC resolution carries some heft. Donning the leadership role, India played a
crucial role in reaching a global consensus on Afghanistan situation. Notably,
this has been first legislation that acknowledged Taliban as defacto in charge
of Afghanistan.
With this India has indicated
that it is adjusting to the reality of Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Though
this change of approach doesn’t state that India is ready to do business with Taliban
or anything close to recognizing it. But this necessarily demonstrates that
India will not abjure its stakes in Afghanistan.
In tandem with the new policy,
a day after the UNSC resolution, Indian delegation led by envoy Deepak Mittal
held discussions with head of Taliban’s political official Sher Mohammed
Stanekzai at Doha2 for safe and early return of Indian
nationals.
On Oct 21st, weeks,
ahead of the proposed Delhi Security Dialogue, Indian delegation led by JP
Singh met representatives of Taliban along the sidelines of Moscow Format
meeting expressing readiness to provide humanitarian assistance3.
Expressing concern over the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, in his
online address to G20 Summit, Prime Minister Modi stressed on the need for
ensuring “immediate and unhindered access” to humanitarian assistance to
Afghanistan.
India has always supported the
people of Afghanistan, their aspirations. Hence instituted several capacity
building and developmental projects in all Afghan provinces. Wary of escalating
food crisis, India had planned to send 50,000MT of wheat to Taliban ruled
Afghanistan and placed formal request with Pakistan but India hasn’t received
any reply. India has been sending nearly 1 lakh MT of wheat to Afghanistan for
nearly two decades. In 2002, Pakistan refused India access to Afghanistan
through its territory and ever since India relied on the circuitous Chabahar
route for transit.
As opposed to India’s
developmental role, Pakistan exulted Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and
quickly instituted a friendly pro-Islamabad regime in Kabul and asserted its
control. Three months hence, Afghanistan has plunged into worst humanitarian
crisis. Hunger and famine pushed thousands of families into extreme poverty.
Governance has come to a halt. Now, the devastating consequences
of migration from Afghanistan and the security threats are unsettling the immediate
and extended neighbourhood.
In wake of the escalating
uncertainty, to address the security challenges of Afghanistan called for a
dialogue with regional countries. Indian NSA Ajit Doval convened the Third
Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan with NSAs of seven regional players-
Russia, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan that
have crucial stakes in security and stability of Afghanistan on Nov 10th.
Terming “a spoiler can’t be a
peacemaker”1 Pakistan NSA Yusuf Moeed, turned down
India’s invitation. Soon, China followed the suit. Citing “scheduling issues”,
Beijing skipped the regional dialogue.
Ironically, Chinese special
envoy attended the Troika plus meeting hosted by Pakistan a day after Delhi
Dialogue. The absence of Pakistan and China has been along expected lines. Vindicating
popular opinion, The Global Times, carried out an op-ed on Delhi dialogue which
read, “India wants to use the event to show its influence in regional
affairs and strike a blow at Pakistan…… With China, Pakistan’s absence,
India-hosted Afghan meeting (is) unlikely to yield tangible results”4.
GT propaganda made it amply
clear that the Iron brothers are determined to undermine India’s efforts.
Pakistan has always been reluctant to engage with India on Afghanistan for the
fear of losing its dominance. It has always sought to marginalize India’s role
and downplayed India’s developmental efforts.
India condemned Pakistan’s
decision to skip NSA level talks as reflective of its mindset of viewing
Afghanistan as its protectorate. Indeed, US Congressional Research Service
voiced similar opinion stating, “Pakistan has long played an active and by
many accounts, disruptive and destabilizing role in Afghan affairs, including
through the provision of support to the Taliban”5. For
decades, Pakistan stonewalled the economic integration of South Asia via SAARC. Now, it is impeding the regional cooperation
in Afghanistan issue as well.
Pakistan seeks to gain ‘strategic
depth’ in Central Asia through Afghanistan and Beijing needs Afghanistan for
smooth operationalization of OBOR. Afghanistan is crucial for the geopolitical
aspirations of China and Pakistan. The resurgence of Taliban is an opportunity
for both to achieve their objectives. Defying international consensus, Pakistan
and China have been providing support to Taliban.
Russia, on the other hand has
been toeing a middle path. It participated in Delhi Dialogue and Troika plus
meet. Indeed, its dichotomy is reflected in dissonance of its envoys as well.
While Russian NSA Patrushev on his first visit to India days after telephonic
conversation between Modi and Putin on August 24th expressed
security concerns to Russia due to Afghanistan, its special envoy Zamir Kabulov
who attended Troika plus backed, “engage and recognize Taliban”
approach.
Be as it may, Russian
participation had lent much weight to Delhi Dialogue and NSA Doval stated that
Russia first came up with the idea that India should host a security dialogue
on Afghanistan. China and Pakistan aren’t keen on restoring peace and stability
in the region. On the contrary, Iran, Russia and Central Asian countries are
wary of the security threats emanating from Afghanistan. Privy to the ramifications
on their respective nations during the previous Taliban regime, a surge in
violence across their borders is now unsettling them.
India’s legitimate concerns
find congruence with regional countries that have clearly acknowledged New
Delhi’s leadership. Presence of seven regional NSA exemplifies the same. Aiming
at bringing out stability in Afghanistan, India laid out a clear framework- the
Delhi Declaration. All countries “reiterated strong support for a peaceful,
secure and stable Afghanistan while emphasizing the respect for sovereignty,
unity and territorial integrity and non-interference in its internal affairs”6.
This is an apparent dig at Pakistan which treats Afghanistan as a protectorate
and the Sino-Pak strategy of capitalizing on Afghanistan’s situation for their
geopolitical ambitions.
Regional countries have been
at the receiving end of terrorist attacks emanating from Afghanistan in the
past and now have unequivocally “condemned in strongest terms all terrorist
activities and reaffirmed their firm commitment to combat terrorism in all its
forms and manifestations, including its financing, the dismantling of terrorist
infrastructure and countering radicalization, to ensure that Afghanistan would
never become a safe have for global terrorism”. China and Pakistan have
coopted terror agencies and peddled oxymoronic “good and bad terrorism
theory”. Delhi Declaration calls for international scrutiny and
collaboration to contain the menace of terrorism that is threatening to extend
its tentacles.
Latest UN figures state that
85% of world’s opium is produced in Afghanistan. Drugs have been an important
source of revenue for Taliban. Taliban thrived on the funds of narco-trade to
sustain the jihadi movement. The rise of Taliban has compounded the
menace of drug trafficking and the participants of Delhi Dialogue, who have
been victims of narco-terrorism “called for a collective cooperation against
the menace of radicalization, extremism, separatism and drug trafficking in the
region”.
Finally, a stable Afghanistan
can’t be realized without the participation of all stakeholders in governance
and humanitarian assistance. Delhi Dialogue rightly emphasized on these
aspects- stressed the need for an open and inclusive government which ensures
that fundamental rights of women, children, minorities are not violated. It
also called on UN agencies to continue to play a role in Afghanistan to ensure
unimpeded distribution of aid to all sections of the society.
Irrespective of the regime,
India has always supported the ordinary Afghans. Reaffirming its commitment to
the country, despite the Sino-Pak nexus attempting to derail a regional
cooperative framework, India reached out to countries for a broader regional coalition
on Afghanistan. Shedding its historical reticence, asserting her legitimate
interests in restoring peace and stability, India adopted a pragmatic approach
towards Afghanistan.
An unstable Afghanistan is a
disaster in making. While mild-mannered Taliban diplomats in the recent past
tried to project Taliban 2.0 as an inclusive and open force, unrelenting
violence, targeted attacks on minorities have inexorably exposed their true
nature. Afghanistan crisis needs a long term solution and a committed
coalition. Though the dialogue may not yield immediate results, Delhi regional
security dialogue underscores India’s firm commitment towards Afghanistan. It
establishes India’s role as an important regional player in ensuring peace and
development of Afghanistan.
Taliban welcomed the Delhi
Dialogue and said, “the India meeting is effective for Afghanistan because
India is one of the aid-providing countries to Afghanistan and it is now
interested in supporting Afghanistan”7. Reportedly, at the
Troika plus meeting held by Pakistan, Taliban representative asked PM Imran
Khan to facilitate the transport of Indian wheat through Wagah port to
Afghanistan and reinstitute visa services.
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