Quick paced events in Afghanistan especially in the last fortnight has accentuated concerns of the state slipping into chaos sooner than later. Spiralling attacks, burgeoning civilian deaths, unabated violence together with expedited troop drawdown by the US has implacably exacerbated the inimical collapse of Afghan state sending shock waves to countries in the immediate neighbourhood.
Amid surging Taliban attacks, on June 28th Indian
Embassy has issued security advisory to all Indian nationals in Afghanistan to
avoid non-essential movements and exercise strict vigilance and caution at work
place. India is closely monitoring to bring its citizens from the war-ravaged
Afghanistan.
In mid-April Biden announced complete troop withdrawal by
September 11th, setting in motion accelerated withdrawal, the US on
June 2nd has vacated the famed epicentre of their operations for 20
years, the Bagaram airbase in the thick of the night without even informing the
in charge Afghan commander. Minutes after the US troops vacated the base,
electricity was shut down, plunging the area into darkness. Within minutes the
place was ransacked and rummaged to pick up over 3.5 million items including
small weapons by insurgent elements. Two hours after they left, Afghan forces
who learnt about their departure rued about the way US troops left the place.
The US withdrawal heralded on the lines Emergency Action Plan
for embassy has expectedly raised many concerns of an imminent Civil war threat
in Afghanistan. In fact, the US state department has placed embassy under
“ordered departure” in April and ever since non-essential staff were sent away.
Evacuation of Afghan interpreters who face death threats is under urgent consideration.
The scheduled recall of troops is much ahead of the schedule now.
As of now, more than 90% of draw down is complete. 650 US
troops are stationed in Afghan currently to safeguard American Embassy in Kabul
and Kabul International Airport. US and Turkey have reached an agreement over
the security of airport, the most pivotal conduit for access to Afghanistan.
President Erdogan sought diplomatic and financial support to protect airport
and wanted Pakistan and Hungary to be involved in the mission.
Germany, Italy and UK have reported full withdrawal of
contingents and Australia has closed its consulate in Afghanistan. Foreign
evacuation and surge in Taliban offensive portend Afghanistan’s descent to
abyss.
Taliban’s steady takeover of new areas is quite unnerving. On
June 22nd, Taliban took over the American built- Sher Khan Bandar
crossing north of Kunduz city after 150 border guards and Afghan troops deserted
the check posts and fled to Tajikistan. On humanitarian ground, Tajikistan
offered allowed the trespassers. Over 1000 troops have reportedly surrendered.
Interestingly, instead of closing the Sher-Khan Bandar complex, Taliban has
reached out to Tajik businessmen and began operating it. The customs revenue of
$13,000 annually is now pocketed by Taliban1.
Sher-Khan Bandar complex, as testimony of US 20-year long
stay in the country includes a customs compound and a steel bridge across the
Panj river that runs between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Built in 2007, the $40
million project has been an effort to resurrect what is believed to be an
ancient silk road route.
Previously, Tajikistan supported the anti-Taliban Northern
Alliance led by Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Massoud. In absence of stiff resistance from these
groups, the regions are now controlled by Taliban. Unlike Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan hasn’t allowed the fleeing Afghan military into their territory. The
border crossing is controlled by Afghan government. With Sher-Khan complex out
of bounds to Afghan government are rerouting Tajik bound transit via Uzbekistan.
Emboldened by the rapid withdrawal of US troops, Taliban has
intensified its offensive and made fresh gains. More than one-third of
districts have fell without even a fight and demoralised soldiers began to
either flee or surrender. An intelligence assessment now predicts that Afghan
government would collapse in no less than six months of American pull out.
According to FDD’s Long War Journal2,
baring the Fayzabad district, nearly all the provinces including the Wakhan
corridor is now controlled by Taliban. Wakhan Corridor has been untouched by
Taliban. But now the region which shares a 76km border with China is held by
Taliban. Residents in the northern regions are complaining of a return of a
Taliban regime with dictums of women not allowed to move alone without male
escort and men ordained to grow beard slowly making way.
Fearing an imminent Taliban resurgence, thousands of Afghans
are fleeing the country. Northern regions have been strong bastions of
anti-Taliban forces and multi-ethnic groups who aided US-led invasion. But now
these regions are crumbling like dominos. Taliban are now in control of the
main border crossing with Tajikistan and have now slowly taken over the trade
agreement between Afghan state and Tajikistan. They are in control of Doshi,
the main road connecting the northern areas to Kabul. These areas remained
unconquered even as the Taliban occupied 90% of the country in 1990s. Taliban
dominated the South and Eastern regions of Afghan state. But now the astounding
pace of Taliban takeover is creating flutter in the region.
Though analysts contend that Taliban haven’t attacked Kabul
and not everything is lost. Unlike in the past, Taliban are advancing into strategic
border districts and closing in on Kabul. They reportedly stormed into the
capital of north eastern province of Badghis which shares borders with
Turkmenistan. Taliban took control of provincial office of National Directorate
of Security and Police Headquarters. City of Qala-e-Naw briefly collapsed when
the Afghan forces began to resist further advances of the insurgents3.
Province of Balkh which shares borders with Uzbekistan is
witnessing massive infighting though the capital is relatively peaceful.
Consulates of Turkey and Russia which operate in Mazar-e-Sharif capital of
Balkh have closed down. Consulates of Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
in the city have reduced their activities. Though India has closed Jalalabad
and Herat consulate, it is not rushing to shut consulates in Mazar-e-sharif and
Kandahar in lieu of criticality of ground presence.
Taliban’s massive runover has gained momentum after US
vacated the Bagram airfield. As of now, Taliban consolidated its gains in
strategic border districts. By closing in on the borders of the land-locked
Afghan state, Taliban is planning to exert pressure on Afghan dispensation.
The real time assessment of Taliban by FDD’s Long War Journal
as of July 5th is as following- Taliban controlled districts-195,
Contested districts-129 and Government controlled districts-75. Afghan government
controls little over 20% of the total territory. Situation is dire4.
Taliban is steadily encircling Kabul and they are waiting for
the complete withdrawal of US forces for the final kill. America’s stealthy
abandonment Bagram airfield spectacularly turned the tide boosting the morale
of the Taliban. Appositely, the remorseful and disgraceful exit will be forever
etched in the memory of the Afghans.
Together, unrelenting Taliban offensive, low salaries, surrender
of border troops in large numbers, crunch for help in launching airstrikes has
demoralised the Afghan National Army (ANA). US administration has committed $4
billion annually to defence forces to support national security till 2024
during President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Washington. Given the humongous scale
of corruption, Afghanistan the finances will end up elsewhere.
In contrast, Taliban has steady sources of income from
narcotic business, levies on mining and transport which is upwards of $1.5
billion. In recognition of Taliban’s steady gains, Shuras in Balochistan are
making lavish donations. Additionally, they are now accruing the custom
revenues from border posts as well.
While Taliban is on an ascendent, ANA is failing to make any
serious effort to consolidate, regroup and repel them. Hence, Afghan government
has launched national mobilisation or the process of recruiting volunteers and
raising local militia to resist the insurgents5. Local
warlords are gearing up for the looming the threat of Taliban and raising their
own small armies to fight them back.
Bolstering the warlords under national mobilisation is a
recipe for disaster. It is a return to 1990s wherein the infighting between the
distrustful warlords eventually ended up in a civil war that claimed over
50,000 civilian lives.
Aside the dire forecasts about imminent of civil war,
American withdrawal will mark the return of terrorism posing a strategic
challenge to entire region. US which entered Afghanistan 20 years ago, spent a
Trillion dollars and sacrificed 2000 lives having failed to contain the
terrorism has shamefully retreated leaving the country in a colossal mess.
America’s remorseful act is in line with Gorbachev’s warning
to Najibullah against American claims that they were, “actually concerned with
the danger of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism”. Declassified meeting
records of 1990 states Gorbachev has indicated that America was concerned about
Islamic threats to allies (Pakistan) and added, “it would be naïve if one permitted
the thought that we see only this side of their policy and do not notice other
aspects. The US is not opposed to fundamentalism becoming the banner of 40
million Soviet Muslims and creating difficulties for the Soviet Union. They
object only to it affecting their own interests”6.
His prescient observation is spot on. Taliban refused to
extend the original deadline of May 1st, which was negotiated
between the Trump administration and Taliban by two months. Fearing attacks, US
kickstarted the withdrawal oblivious to the consequences of such expedited
departure. Though Taliban has refused to commit to ceasefire, putting the
safety of its troops ahead of Afghan peace, America pulled back troops.
Notwithstanding the two decades of American efforts to
stabilise the Afghan state and restore peace, America’s ill-conceived acts
rightly reminded the World of Washington’s infamous stance. Taliban’s
sharia-based regime is only “anti-modern” but not “anti-western”7.
With these perceptions, America has sought accommodation with Taliban and
lobbied to engage with them.
Instructively, Mullah Abdul Baradar, Taliban co-founder, said
that, “We understand that the world and Afghans have queries and questions
about the form of the system to be established following the withdrawal of foreign
troops. A genuine Islamic system is the best means for solution of all issues
of Afghans”. “We take it on ourselves as a commitment to accommodate all rights
of citizens of our country whether they are male or female in the light of the
rules of the glorious religion of Islam and the noble traditions of the Afghan society”8
he added.
Needless to say, a resurgent Taliban is all set to establish a sharia-guided totalitarian Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and return of Islamic fundamentalism that condones terrorism watering down the gains of the past 20 years.
America’s Afghan war has never been about Islamist terrorism.
Their current pullback is part of a deal with Taliban to stop targeted attacks
on US troops. With situation deteriorating in Afghanistan, under international
pressure, America is looking at “off shore over-the-horizon” counterterrorism
operations. With boots on ground for 20 years, it failed to hold off Taliban. The
proposed counter terrorism mission is a hogwash. Biden’s latest announcement of
complete withdrawal by August 31st and his full-throttled defence is
so feckless on many counts.
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