Solution to Afghan peace lies with Pakistan

 Situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating rapidly. Taliban 2.0 has adopted the new strategy of taking over the border districts of land-locked Afghanistan and preparing to encircle capital Kabul to consolidate its dominance and leverage the gains for negotiating with Afghan government. Taliban advanced into North East region a traditional stronghold of the anti-Taliban forces last fortnight. In absence of stiff resistance from the Afghan forces and border guards, Taliban took over the Tajik-Afghan border post. Similarly, Taliban marched through Badghis province and gained control over the Uzbek-Afghan border, felling Herat, Taliban is now manning the Iran-Afghan border seizing the border area of Islam Qala.

Bound by a secret pact with America to protect the Western bases for a year from any attacks which expired on May 1^st, Taliban renewed its attacks on the Afghan forces henceforth. Their advance gained much pace and momentum after America expedited its withdrawal. Taliban doubled its gains and as per reports, it currently controls more than 85% of the territory. Alarmingly unlike in the past, Afghan forces are unable to recapture the lost provinces.

The latest to fall now is the Southern district of Spin Boldak and Taliban seized control of a major crossing with Pakistan.  Afghan flags at The Friendship gate in Chaman are now replaced by White Flag with Koranic verses of Taliban. With this the second largest port of Afghanistan, Kandahar is under the control of Taliban. By laying seize to important trade crossings in Kunduz and Farah provinces as well in the recent past, Taliban has deprived the Afghanistan of key sources of revenue and filling its coffers.

With thousands of refugees waiting at the Spin Boldok-Chaman crossing to enter Pakistan, the latter has closed its borders. Also, this crossing provides direct access to Balochistan province in Pakistan which is home to Taliban leadership for decades. By laying seize to this key arterial commercial line between Kandahar and Pakistan ports, Taliban have a proposed a three-month ceasefire in exchange for release of 7000 prisoners held by Afghan government.

Clearly, the situation is turning from bad to worse and the regional powers, most of them the members and observers of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) have assembled at Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Given the gravity of the deteriorating security in Afghanistan, SCO has convened the SCO-Afghan Contact Group meeting, a formal contact body originally created in 2005 to address the security challenges in Afghan and its spill over effects into Central Asia.

Afghan Taliban has ethic linkages with terrorist groups like -Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Hizb-u-Tehrir (HUT) which attempted to topple the regimes in Central Asia and wanted to establish a Muslim caliphate. Taliban has close links with LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and others. A resurgence of Taliban is bound to strengthen other terrorist groups and this will have direct bearing on the peace and stability of Central Asia and India.

At the 20^th SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting which concluded on July 14^th the members which include- China, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India and Pakistan issued a joint statement which read- “We strongly call on all sides involved in the conflict in Afghanistan to abstain from using force or taking action that may lead to destabilisation and unpredictable consequences in the areas of Afghanistan’s borders with SCO member states”. SCO Observer States Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus, Mongolia also attended the meet.

Members expressed keenness to cooperate with Afghanistan to deal with extremism, terrorism and drug trade. They confirmed readiness to “expand cooperation in spheres of politics, security, economic and humanitarian cooperation”. The document further states, “the SCO member states reaffirm their respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan”¹ and agreed in principle to Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process.

Having principally agreed to the “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” process, even before the ink of the Joint statement could dry, Pakistan’s air force has warned the Afghan government to refrain all its efforts to dislodge Taliban from the Spin Boldak area. Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh tweeted. This development has brought Afghanistan and Pakistan to the brink of the war and laid out bare Pakistan’s umbilical connect with Taliban.

Unprecedented escalation tensions along the Af-Pak border in the aftermath of the SCO Foreign Ministers Summit, has glaring exposed the double-standards and hypocrisy of Pakistan and China. SCO has come into existence in 2001 to mitigate the challenges of “terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking” emanating from Afghanistan and posing threat to the Central Asia.

With a focus on regional stability, SCO has created Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in 2002 at Tashkent. Designating terrorism as a major security challenge, SCO resolved to fight this menace. and pledged to fight the scourge of terror in all forms and manifestations.

For decades, Pakistan has been using terrorism as a strategic weapon to pursue its foreign policy goals. The over four decades of unremitting war in Afghanistan and the incessant cross-border terror attacks on India are a living testimony to Pakistan’s terror patronship. With American finances, Pakistan has built a formidable jihadi machinery and unleashed it in the region whose tremors are felt even in Eurasia.

For reasons best known to America, despite knowing the double-game of Pakistan, it refused to designate the country as the fountainhead of terror. Similarly, by condoning Pakistan’ terror acts and shielding it from international censure on global platforms, China has done what America did to Pakistan. 

China welcomed Pakistan into SCO an organisation founded to fight terrorism along with India to strengthen its clout. Mocking America’s “great war on terror”, China has offered to mediate Afghanistan peace process. Partnering with mothership of terror, Beijing is bound to hit the same roadblock as America and it is unlikely that China can find a lasting solution for Afghanistan in specific and mitigate the challenges posed by threat to the region in general.  

Pakistan is the real threat. It is time countries force Islamabad to dismantle its terror ecosystem else all major powers and regional powers would keep reinventing the wheel without any success. For decades Pakistan has been waging a proxy war in Afghanistan. By failing to sanction Pakistan, countries have been reigniting episodes of “forever war”.

Pakistan pulls the strings of Afghan Taliban and controls the peace process. Looking elsewhere would be futile. Pakistan has been the primary exporter of terror. Until the country is dried of finances and decoupled from the World through sanctions, peace is a mirage.

Mincing no words, at the SCO Foreign Ministers Meet Jaishankar reiterated, “Combatting terrorism and extremism is the key purpose of SCO. Must stop terror financing and digital facilitation”

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US troop withdrawal accentuates Afghanistan’s imminent collapse

 Quick paced events in Afghanistan especially in the last fortnight has accentuated concerns of the state slipping into chaos sooner than later. Spiralling attacks, burgeoning civilian deaths, unabated violence together with expedited troop drawdown by the US has implacably exacerbated the inimical collapse of Afghan state sending shock waves to countries in the immediate neighbourhood.

Amid surging Taliban attacks, on June 28^th Indian Embassy has issued security advisory to all Indian nationals in Afghanistan to avoid non-essential movements and exercise strict vigilance and caution at work place. India is closely monitoring to bring its citizens from the war-ravaged Afghanistan.

In mid-April Biden announced complete troop withdrawal by September 11^th, setting in motion accelerated withdrawal, the US on June 2^nd has vacated the famed epicentre of their operations for 20 years, the Bagaram airbase in the thick of the night without even informing the in charge Afghan commander. Minutes after the US troops vacated the base, electricity was shut down, plunging the area into darkness. Within minutes the place was ransacked and rummaged to pick up over 3.5 million items including small weapons by insurgent elements. Two hours after they left, Afghan forces who learnt about their departure rued about the way US troops left the place.

The US withdrawal heralded on the lines Emergency Action Plan for embassy has expectedly raised many concerns of an imminent Civil war threat in Afghanistan. In fact, the US state department has placed embassy under “ordered departure” in April and ever since non-essential staff were sent away. Evacuation of Afghan interpreters who face death threats is under urgent consideration. The scheduled recall of troops is much ahead of the schedule now.

As of now, more than 90% of draw down is complete. 650 US troops are stationed in Afghan currently to safeguard American Embassy in Kabul and Kabul International Airport. US and Turkey have reached an agreement over the security of airport, the most pivotal conduit for access to Afghanistan. President Erdogan sought diplomatic and financial support to protect airport and wanted Pakistan and Hungary to be involved in the mission.

Germany, Italy and UK have reported full withdrawal of contingents and Australia has closed its consulate in Afghanistan. Foreign evacuation and surge in Taliban offensive portend Afghanistan’s descent to abyss.  

Taliban’s steady takeover of new areas is quite unnerving. On June 22^nd, Taliban took over the American built- Sher Khan Bandar crossing north of Kunduz city after 150 border guards and Afghan troops deserted the check posts and fled to Tajikistan. On humanitarian ground, Tajikistan offered allowed the trespassers. Over 1000 troops have reportedly surrendered. Interestingly, instead of closing the Sher-Khan Bandar complex, Taliban has reached out to Tajik businessmen and began operating it. The customs revenue of $13,000 annually is now pocketed by Taliban¹.

Sher-Khan Bandar complex, as testimony of US 20-year long stay in the country includes a customs compound and a steel bridge across the Panj river that runs between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Built in 2007, the $40 million project has been an effort to resurrect what is believed to be an ancient silk road route.

Previously, Tajikistan supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance led by Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.  In absence of stiff resistance from these groups, the regions are now controlled by Taliban. Unlike Tajikistan, Uzbekistan hasn’t allowed the fleeing Afghan military into their territory. The border crossing is controlled by Afghan government. With Sher-Khan complex out of bounds to Afghan government are rerouting Tajik bound transit via Uzbekistan.

Emboldened by the rapid withdrawal of US troops, Taliban has intensified its offensive and made fresh gains. More than one-third of districts have fell without even a fight and demoralised soldiers began to either flee or surrender. An intelligence assessment now predicts that Afghan government would collapse in no less than six months of American pull out.

According to FDD’s Long War Journal², baring the Fayzabad district, nearly all the provinces including the Wakhan corridor is now controlled by Taliban. Wakhan Corridor has been untouched by Taliban. But now the region which shares a 76km border with China is held by Taliban. Residents in the northern regions are complaining of a return of a Taliban regime with dictums of women not allowed to move alone without male escort and men ordained to grow beard slowly making way.

Fearing an imminent Taliban resurgence, thousands of Afghans are fleeing the country. Northern regions have been strong bastions of anti-Taliban forces and multi-ethnic groups who aided US-led invasion. But now these regions are crumbling like dominos. Taliban are now in control of the main border crossing with Tajikistan and have now slowly taken over the trade agreement between Afghan state and Tajikistan. They are in control of Doshi, the main road connecting the northern areas to Kabul. These areas remained unconquered even as the Taliban occupied 90% of the country in 1990s. Taliban dominated the South and Eastern regions of Afghan state. But now the astounding pace of Taliban takeover is creating flutter in the region.

Though analysts contend that Taliban haven’t attacked Kabul and not everything is lost. Unlike in the past, Taliban are advancing into strategic border districts and closing in on Kabul. They reportedly stormed into the capital of north eastern province of Badghis which shares borders with Turkmenistan. Taliban took control of provincial office of National Directorate of Security and Police Headquarters. City of Qala-e-Naw briefly collapsed when the Afghan forces began to resist further advances of the insurgents³.

Province of Balkh which shares borders with Uzbekistan is witnessing massive infighting though the capital is relatively peaceful. Consulates of Turkey and Russia which operate in Mazar-e-Sharif capital of Balkh have closed down. Consulates of Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the city have reduced their activities. Though India has closed Jalalabad and Herat consulate, it is not rushing to shut consulates in Mazar-e-sharif and Kandahar in lieu of criticality of ground presence.

Taliban’s massive runover has gained momentum after US vacated the Bagram airfield. As of now, Taliban consolidated its gains in strategic border districts. By closing in on the borders of the land-locked Afghan state, Taliban is planning to exert pressure on Afghan dispensation.

The real time assessment of Taliban by FDD’s Long War Journal as of July 5^th is as following- Taliban controlled districts-195, Contested districts-129 and Government controlled districts-75. Afghan government controls little over 20% of the total territory. Situation is dire⁴.

Taliban is steadily encircling Kabul and they are waiting for the complete withdrawal of US forces for the final kill. America’s stealthy abandonment Bagram airfield spectacularly turned the tide boosting the morale of the Taliban. Appositely, the remorseful and disgraceful exit will be forever etched in the memory of the Afghans.

Together, unrelenting Taliban offensive, low salaries, surrender of border troops in large numbers, crunch for help in launching airstrikes has demoralised the Afghan National Army (ANA). US administration has committed $4 billion annually to defence forces to support national security till 2024 during President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Washington. Given the humongous scale of corruption, Afghanistan the finances will end up elsewhere.

In contrast, Taliban has steady sources of income from narcotic business, levies on mining and transport which is upwards of $1.5 billion. In recognition of Taliban’s steady gains, Shuras in Balochistan are making lavish donations. Additionally, they are now accruing the custom revenues from border posts as well.

While Taliban is on an ascendent, ANA is failing to make any serious effort to consolidate, regroup and repel them. Hence, Afghan government has launched national mobilisation or the process of recruiting volunteers and raising local militia to resist the insurgents⁵. Local warlords are gearing up for the looming the threat of Taliban and raising their own small armies to fight them back.

Bolstering the warlords under national mobilisation is a recipe for disaster. It is a return to 1990s wherein the infighting between the distrustful warlords eventually ended up in a civil war that claimed over 50,000 civilian lives.

Aside the dire forecasts about imminent of civil war, American withdrawal will mark the return of terrorism posing a strategic challenge to entire region. US which entered Afghanistan 20 years ago, spent a Trillion dollars and sacrificed 2000 lives having failed to contain the terrorism has shamefully retreated leaving the country in a colossal mess.

America’s remorseful act is in line with Gorbachev’s warning to Najibullah against American claims that they were, “actually concerned with the danger of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism”. Declassified meeting records of 1990 states Gorbachev has indicated that America was concerned about Islamic threats to allies (Pakistan) and added, “it would be naïve if one permitted the thought that we see only this side of their policy and do not notice other aspects. The US is not opposed to fundamentalism becoming the banner of 40 million Soviet Muslims and creating difficulties for the Soviet Union. They object only to it affecting their own interests”⁶.

His prescient observation is spot on. Taliban refused to extend the original deadline of May 1^st, which was negotiated between the Trump administration and Taliban by two months. Fearing attacks, US kickstarted the withdrawal oblivious to the consequences of such expedited departure. Though Taliban has refused to commit to ceasefire, putting the safety of its troops ahead of Afghan peace, America pulled back troops.

Notwithstanding the two decades of American efforts to stabilise the Afghan state and restore peace, America’s ill-conceived acts rightly reminded the World of Washington’s infamous stance. Taliban’s sharia-based regime is only “anti-modern” but not “anti-western”⁷. With these perceptions, America has sought accommodation with Taliban and lobbied to engage with them.

Instructively, Mullah Abdul Baradar, Taliban co-founder, said that, “We understand that the world and Afghans have queries and questions about the form of the system to be established following the withdrawal of foreign troops. A genuine Islamic system is the best means for solution of all issues of Afghans”. “We take it on ourselves as a commitment to accommodate all rights of citizens of our country whether they are male or female in the light of the rules of the glorious religion of Islam and the noble traditions of the Afghan society”⁸ he added.

Needless to say, a resurgent Taliban is all set to establish a sharia-guided totalitarian Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and return of Islamic fundamentalism that condones terrorism watering down the gains of the past 20 years.

America’s Afghan war has never been about Islamist terrorism. Their current pullback is part of a deal with Taliban to stop targeted attacks on US troops. With situation deteriorating in Afghanistan, under international pressure, America is looking at “off shore over-the-horizon” counterterrorism operations. With boots on ground for 20 years, it failed to hold off Taliban. The proposed counter terrorism mission is a hogwash. Biden’s latest announcement of complete withdrawal by August 31^st and his full-throttled defence is so feckless on many counts.

 

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Hundred years of CCP: A cauldron of contradictions

Beijing is gearing up to celebrate the 100^th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) started on July 1^st ,1921 at Shanghai in all grandeur and splendour. China’s propaganda machinery is pulling no stops to exalt the objectives of the CCP and phenomenal contribution of the current regime in taking the Middle Kingdom to the pinnacles of success.

Powered by an ideology that offered a different system of governance and administration contrary to the West, China, wanted to demonstrate the dominance of its system. Garnering international recognition after it became UNSC permanent member in 1971, China began to penetrate the ruled-based institutional framework and surreptitiously used the system to advance its agenda. Consistently expanding its role at UN and its allied agencies China began transforming the institutions to reflect its priorities and values.

Till the fall of the Qing dynasty, China was uninterruptedly ruled for 275 years by monarchs, who ingrained the concept of “Zhongguo” meaning the Middle Kingdom. They envisioned a China which is political, cultural and economic centre of the World. In other words, they aspired for a Sino-centric world. After the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911 following a rebellion, the leaders advocated for “revitalisation of Chinese nation”¹. Chinese intellectuals influenced by the Bolshevik revolution and inspired by the Marxism, Leninism and world revolution formed the CCP in 1921. Under the helm of founding leaders- Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao, CCP grew in strength and successfully drove away, Kuomintang’s Nationalist Forces to Taiwan in 1949 and established Peoples Republic of China (PRC).

As per the existing system, the leader of Centre Committee of CCP holds the offices of general secretary (civilian responsibilities), Chairman of Central Military (CMC), State President and is referred to as Paramount leader. By extension, the CCP is the singular guiding force of the country.

To deflect the charges of a single party governance and absence of basic democracy, China has intelligently come up with a rather jingoistic and flimsy explanations stating that China has multiparty system of cooperation and political consultation under the leadership of CCP. It enlisted eight political parties-the revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang; the China Democratic League; the China National Democratic Construction Association; the China Association for Promoting Democracy; the Chinese Peasants and Workers Democratic Party; the China Zhi Gong Party; the Jiusan Society and the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League and stated that all of them work together as single unit with CCP exercising state powers and others participating in the administration of state affairs. Prominent individuals without any political affiliations are also party of this system².

The designation of term political party to the above groups is a misnomer. Reading between the lines, the description of each of these agencies suggest that they are affiliate organisations of CCP actively contributing to different aspects of administration. The massive propaganda exercise days ahead of centenary celebration is just a hog-wash. True to their names, roots of majority groups can be traced to revolutionary phase of China and their relevance in contemporary times offers no justification to their current recalibration as political parties.

As opposed to the CCP’s current membership of 91.9 million the affiliates of these eight organisations barely run into lakhs. Each group now comprises of individuals specialised in various fields like- businessmen, entrepreneurs, doctors, overseas Chinese communities, peasants, workers, labourers, academicians, scientists, revolutionaries and Taiwan Compatriots as well.

Deeming it a parliamentary democracy the propaganda manual released by CCP says that on April 30^th 1948 parties responded to CCP’s call and accepted its leadership. In 1993 consolidating this system, the multiparty system cooperation added to the constitution endorsing the continuance of leadership of CCP for a long time in future.

The CCP propaganda manual which is toxic mix of ironies states that –“the non-CCP political parties exercise oversight over CCP mainly by putting forward opinions, criticisms and suggestions; the oversight is consultative and cooperative in nature. The CCP as the ruling party in a leadership position, willingly accepts the supervision of other political parties” ².

Interestingly for all the grand talks of projected inclusivity, not a whiff of criticism is spared in the country. Disappearance of the dissents has been a trend in China. When even the Noble Peace Prize nominee Liu Xiaobo diagnosed with cancer was incarcerated in jail on subversion charges for calling for greater democracy, how would the World even believe the existence of even an iota of democratic governance in China. With deceit and lies becoming the other name of CCP no amount of diligent propaganda purportedly indicating a semblance of democracy in governance is of no avail.

On the contrary, under the ruse of supervision, surveillance has become order of the day. With cameras continuously monitoring and tracking the individuals, Chinese citizens are now deprived of even basic minimum privacies in life.

The quintessential objectives of CCP’s agenda have been restoration of global power status and establishment of an alternate global governance order. Accordingly, massive Sinicization of the so-autonomous regions is carried out at jet speed. Ruthlessly cracking down on the freedom of speech, expression, religion and worship CCP has crushed the indigenous culture of the autonomous region. The internment of over 1 million Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region, forced sterilisation to curb their population, demolition of mosques is now the major talking point at global platforms.

Though Beijing smartly managed to hide the self-immolation of hundreds of Tibetans and their struggle for autonomy during the 2008 Olympics, the horrors of Xinjiang have definitely reached a breakeven point. US Congressmen are calling for the boycott of 2022 Winter Olympics in China.

With respect to restoration of global power status which roughly translates into “unipolar Asia and bipolar World”, CCP made a huge leap. Keen on ushering the country into a “new era of socialism with Chinese Characteristics” the current regime has formidably hoisted the Middle Kingdom to enviable peaks by cementing its status as the manufacturing hub and promising economic superpower of the World. In the process, China has also become synonymous to slavery, genocide, suppression of basic freedoms, torture and religious persecution as well.

China’s enviable economic rise since its economic reforms in 1978 and its transition from a low-income country to an upper-middle-income country is nothing sort of a miracle. Consolidating its position as the global manufacturing hub, China has steadily emerged as a global power. China’s resource intensive manufacturing, exports and low-cost labour model is now doggedly adopted by several South East Asian countries.

A centenary of CCP should be evaluated on the basis of the epochal events that etched vicissitudes of country’s journey.  If CCP is to be lauded for the emergence of China as a global power, congruently it must be held responsible for the Great Leap Forward that led to a massive famine from 1958 to 62 killing 55 million; the Cultural Revolution in 1966-67 that claimed 20 million lives and undisclosed deaths of brutal Tiananmen Square crackdown.

But in the run up to the Centenary celebrations, China which believes that weakening of the Communist party in Soviet Union has led to its collapse resorted to White-washing vicious legacy of CCP leaders to lend it an aura of infallibility. By consequence, defiance to the orders of the Paramount leader has to treated as disloyalty to party. Using the twin handles of disciplinary action and anti-corruption drive, Xi purged close to one million office bearers including rival Bo Xilai  as part of the clean-up of the system.

Pursuant to narrative setting exercise a colossal attempt is made to reinterpret the history of China. Anyone who deviates from the party’s historical narrative is taken to task. As has been the case with Fang Fang’s Wuhan Diary, any literature that pillories the regime’s effort of coverup is systematically erased. All the inconvenient truths are being buried.

Commemorating the event, China’s education ministry held closed-door meetings with various scholars warranting them to be careful of what they write and say about the CCP’s grip on China’s history. Appealing them to be cautious about their presentation of events like the violent land redistribution campaign in 1950s that claimed lives of 2 million and other atrocities of Supreme leader Mao Zedong. Accordingly, all historical information inimical to the reputation of CCP and its leaders is going to be marked off as classified. Cadres are put through an ideological training regimen and Xi has been publicly administering pledges to the senior cadres to implant the “red gene”.

To firm up his position as “core for life” of CCP leadership, Xi’s achievements are lionised, glorifying his position, his teachings are turned into a religion and he is deified. Heralding his status as the authoritative interpreter of CCP history, Xi has even “redoubled efforts to clamp down on dissent among intellectuals and even former top cadres while also reining in leading private entrepreneurs whose wealth and influence may detract from the all-embracing powers of the party. Finally, Xi, who is also chairman of CMC that oversees the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has masterminded a housecleaning of nation’s military and police forces”³.

Xi’s empowerment of the party is now a common refrain. Having eliminated the power limits three years ago, Xi, 68 is bound to remain in power till 2028 or later. With his unparalleled accomplishments both in economic and diplomatic frontiers, which pale in comparison to Mao and Deng, is inching closer to etching his name in the annals of Chinese history and constitution as well. Laying claims to the title of “transformational leader”, who has no equals in the contemporary history, he has literally ossified the party cadres.

But Xi’s operational style has undermined the doctrine of collective leadership and orderly succession. Orders passed from the top are to be executed. Everyone is restrained. Autonomy of local and regional officials is hindered. Participation of local villagers has shrunk as any suggestion is deemed as trigger to political instability.

Anything that posed threat to CCP’s monopoly of power is eliminated or blunted. The private sector, which is now the top-performer in China is taking the brunt. Sudden disappearance of high-profile players from public view, placement of CCP cadres in the higher echelons of the private enterprises and imposition of heavy fines for infringement of the anti-monopoly laws are enforced to subdue their influence.

Even as China is busy employing technology to address “historical nilihism” (a term used in China to describe public doubt and scepticism over CCP’s description of past events) wherein 2 million posts inimical to CCP in various websites are cleansed⁴, the tyranny of Xi’s authoritarianism and his dictatorial tendencies are now affecting the global order. With no checks and balances in place, Xi’s unbridled power is having a bearing on this World.  

Ahead of CCP’s Centenary celebrations, 40 countries led by Canada introduced a resolution against China at UNHRC for its actions in Hongkong, Tibet and called for access to Xinjiang region to probe the human rights status. Beijing rejected the charges and despite the backlash from the West, China refused to cooperate any investigation. Though China continues to deny, numerous testimonies and complaints of disappearance its vehement disapproval for international probe has only confirmed the worst fears. But what really made news is coercive diplomacy of China that caused Ukraine to pull out its name from the joint statement at the council over threat of stalling of vaccine shipment.

The closure of the Apple Daily, a lone pro-democracy voice in Hongkong last week by freezing the assets of the owner Jimmy Lai under the newly enacted national security law illustrates the power dominance, control and subjugation of CCP.

Ordained by President Deng Xiaoping’s 24-character strategy in the aftermath of global backlash against the Tiananmen crackdown which roughly translates into- “observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership”⁵ China maintained a low profile for long. Eventually this remained the central tenet of China’s foreign policy till late 2000s.

By 2010 when China surpassed Japan as the second largest economy, shedding away these pretensions, President Xi Jinping who assumed charge in 2013, enunciated Chinese Dream with a stated objective of “Chinese rejuvenation”. Invoking the national fervour, recalling the days of foreign invasion, referring to the century of humiliation (1849-1949) unleashed bold initiatives to reshape the World. With a declaration “we should unswervingly uphold socialism with Chinese characteristics…. the superiority of our system will be fully demonstrated through a brighter future”⁶, Xi underscored the paramount importance of a robust communist party.

The unabashed aggressiveness hallmark of Xi’s regime emboldened the latent expansionist tendencies of the CCP. Indulging in a triumphalist narrative and reinforcing its dominance, China insisted on a nine-dash line in South China Sea, non-existent before 1940s and laid claims to 90% of maritime region. Evading the constitutional principle of “one country two system” China stifled the basic freedom of Hongkong. Deeming Taiwan as renegade province under “One China policy”, Beijing renewed annexation bids, intimidatory tactics and intensified air incursions. Reminiscent of the imperialistic practices of the West, capitalising on the infrastructure development pursuits of small countries, China through a global connectivity initiative plunged them into debt-traps. Weaponising trade and water to settle scores with adversaries and lower riparian countries, Beijing with trope of “win-win cooperation” eventually emerged as a “bully”

Notwithstanding the global skepticism of being originator of the covid pandemic, Beijing launched Wolf Warrior diplomats in its defence, unveiled mask diplomacy, used covid supplies as strategic weapons. Not satisfied with this global infamy, China exported its WHO-approved vaccines to over 60 countries. The efficacy of these vaccines is under scanner with at least 10 of 26 doctors who received Chinese vaccines in Indonesia died of Covid. Seychelles, Chile Mongolia, Bahrain, UAE, Indonesia which relied on China vaccines have reported a massive surge in infections⁷.

Under pandemic cover, China stealthily ingressed the LAC which resulted in bloody clashes for the first since 1967 reinvigorating the border tensions with India. More than a year to the stand-off China is steadily entrenched across the LAC. In violation of all bilateral agreements Beijing amassed troops and is attempting to unilaterally change the status quo by ramping up infrastructure development close to LAC. To arm-twist India, as per latest reports, China has even reportedly occupied 5% Bhutan territory as well.

China’s hegemonic aspirations blew lid of the much touted “peaceful rise” paradigm. Coincidentally, China’s favourability ratings have plummeted. As China readies to sing paeans in glory of CCP, the emerging superpower has irretrievably consolidated its position as a revisionist power.

 

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Time to unravel Covid Origins mystery Part-2

China’s Influence over Science Ecosystem

Ian Birrell’s “Beijing’s Useful Idiots” ¹² opens a pandora box and exposes the economic influence of China on science journals. He states that according to an estimate, 49 sponsorship agreements were inked between Springer nature and Chinese authorities. China is biggest national sponsor of open access journals published by Springer Nature and Elsevier, owner of the Lancet. This arrangement can be traced back to 2016 when China asked western scientific journals to block access of Chinese citizens to academic articles that have references to sensitive issues like Tibet, Hongkong and Taiwan.

Debt laden German Springer Nature, Elsevier for the fear of losing access to viewership and outright ban complied. Nature blocked thousand articles that mentioned subjects sensitive to China and defended that less than 1% of the library was affected¹⁹. Elsevier opened its office in Beijing and launched several strategic initiatives¹⁹.

China’s proposal created a divide between the journals, Cambridge acceded initially but later retracted. Sage publishers were open to negotiations. Oxford University Press, Harvard University Press and MIT press refused to comply. With its economic power and influence China began to slowly exercise its control over the content of the academic journals.

Aside the science ecosystem China has cast its influence on the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) which is joint arm of WHO and World Bank that monitors the preparedness towards emerging lethal pathogens. The 15-member GPMB includes members of diverse expertise and has Fauci of NIAID and President of Wellcome Trust Jeremy Farrar who toe Chinese line on the board.

Farrar has been at the forefront in stifling debate on the origins of the virus and went on to suggest that “lab leak” is a conspiracy. With his influence he insisted that evidence suggest that virus has spread naturally from animals²¹.  Clearly, Farrar’s stance isn’t any different from Fauci, who in the face of mounting enquiries, opined, that there is ‘too much of conjecture and theory without data or evidence’ with no evidence to support the lab-leak theory.

Wielding tremendous influence over the entire ecosystem and on all the prominent actors involved in active Corona research, funding and science journals, China has escaped the scrutiny despite the colossal death and devastation caused by the pandemic that originated in Wuhan.

Mounting evidence for lab-origins

Scientific interest in Corona virus research can be traced to a 2013 Kunming Medical University thesis titled, “The analysis of six patients with severe pneumonia caused by unknown viruses”. The symptoms were believed to be caused by SARS like corona virus from horse shoe bat of Yunnan caves.  After the death three miners in the cave in 2012, it was sealed. But Shi reportedly continued to travel to these caves several times to collect the bat guano for her research. SARS-CoV-2 has eight close relatives collected from the cave.

SARS belongs to Beta corona virus that infect Chinese horse bats found in the Yunnan caves of Hubei province which is 1500 kilometers away from Wuhan where the pandemic first broke out.

Though scientists overwhelmingly insisted on natural origins of the SARS-CoV-2 and that the bat population has caused the pandemic, the tyranny of distance invalidates the proposition. Even after testing over 80,000 samples from various animals, no trace of zoonotic transmission or the involvement of an intermediate host could be determined.

The infection trend of SARS-CoV-1 indicated that the virus has to travel through several intermediate hosts to gain a potential mutation capable of infecting the human. The spike protein must continuously evolve and adapt before its transforms from a mild infection into an epidemic. SARS-CoV-1 underwent 14 such changes to become an epidemic. But no such proof has been produced with respect to SARS-CoV-2 and whatever is reported to have caused pandemic appears to be well adapted for humans.

Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 genome lacked diversity seen in natural viruses. It is relatively uniform with no trace of or any hint of any intermediary. Also, the presence of the furin cleavage site with the signature sequence PRRA (Proline-Arginine-Arginine-Alanine) at the S1/S2 junction of the SARS-2 spike protein is really intriguing.

Human furin protein precisely identifies this sequence to cleave a protein. Presence of all the four amino acids in the right order at right place is possible only through manipulation or gain of function. This signature sequence could be naturally acquired either through mutation or recombination. But none of the beta corona viruses have a furin cleavage sites because they don’t need one. Shi published papers wherein 11 GOF experiments are conducted to make SARS-CoV-2 more infective to humans by adding furin cleavage site²¹.

China insisted that the wet market in the Wuhan is the source of the pandemic. But then to cause a pandemic, a large scale of bat population must be present in proximity with intermediate host which in turn can cause infection in humans. But kind of scenario is impossible in Wuhan.

Lab leaks are common and two major lab leaks of dangerous virus were reported from China. Shi has admitted in some interviews that they carried research in BSL-2 lab conditions with minimum precautions, the highest level of safety is BSL-4. Though Wuhan lab is BSL-4 certified, several scientists expressed concerns over the design in 2018.

More so, three people working at WIV became sick within a week of each other and were hospitalised with severe symptoms in November 2019. Though China strongly refutes, scientific evidence strongly favour a lab-leak.

Regime Change in America

More than year to the pandemic, international spot-light is now on lab-leak theory. Amid growing calls for a transparent investigation an appeal in the Science by a group of 18 scientists ²² added a new momentum to the changing paradigm. Suddenly censorship on lab-leak disappeared, dissent voices aren’t throttled and shunted out the social media.

Lab-leak of viruses isn’t uncommon but what made things worse is the flip-flops of scientists who debunked the possibility of an engineered virus causing the devastation. Despite mounting scientific evidence of WIV’s forays into the research of making the microorganisms more dangerous.

Science always enjoyed an unrivalled status in the modern World for giving wings to dreams and innovation and deeming “impossible” a misnomer. Evidently, the scientists with illustrious accomplishments are highly celebrated and respected. Impugning the trust, the scientists disowned the responsibility of changing the truth. Got caught in the political cesspool, turned into purveyors of misinformation.

At this juncture, taking up the cudgels, a group of two dozens of anonymous correspondents, science enthusiasts burned midnight oil worked independently and pieced together the available information. They connected the missing links to unravel the saga of the Corona virus research. Calling themselves DRASTIC- Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19, they broke the biggest story of the 21^st Century²³.

Months ahead of the pandemic, on September 12^th, 2019 WIV has pulled down the website. But DRASTIC travelled the dark alleys of internet and joined together the disparate pieces of data to give a framework to the sequence of events. Sealing off all the information and denying access to WIV, China which offered nothing but the genomic sequence of Virus to the World has annihilated all traces of virus outbreak and silenced whistle blowers.

 Amid growing international pressure, China allowed the investigations by WHO team which wasn’t independent and didn’t have necessary access. If China has nothing to hide, why doesn’t it grant accent to a new probe.

Whether or not the probe really offers any leads, it is essential to have thorough investigation and public scrutiny of a lab investigating dangerous organisms to avert any accidental leakage and to have prudent checks and balances. China has set a dangerous precedent. The World is now forced to seriously rethink about the dangerous of creating super spreader viruses.  

Interestingly, even as the whimper about Covid origins not being natural always played in the background a change of leadership in the US added a new impetus to the hypothesis underscoring the importance of a narrative and detrimental nature of political polarisation. Despite subverting rational scientific investigation and stifling open international discussion, Daszak and Anderson were awarded funds under the $82million grants to Centres for Research in Epidemiological Infectious Diseases (CREID) by NIAID²⁴.

The World has lost valuable time in getting its act together. This delay aided China’s cover-up of virus origins. Much of the incriminating evidence is already lost. The only hope is the intelligence gathered by a network of sleuths. In absence of conclusive evidence, China can be exonerated of all its crimes. Interestingly, even before the World put a collective front, China has launched a counter propaganda.

China’s foreign origin counter narrative

China started labelling the growing clamour for investigation as anti-Asia sentiments. The Global Times has put forth a counter-narrative in place suggesting that pandemic exploded after the October 2019 Military World Games and that foreign military personnel have frequented the Wuhan wet markets. The frozen food carried by them had the contagion. It is already readying the alibi of French agency reports of military personnel returning home with SARS like symptoms²⁵. In support of its claims, it pushed the testimonies of the retailers of the wet market and airport officials about the frozen food brought by them.

China has mastered the art of frantically churning out narrative without scientific evidence. With its no holds barred approach, Beijing would outshout the international media. It would deploy wolf warrior diplomats and the state-sponsored global media network to peddle lies. Relying on a lie told hundred times might be truth, China will defend itself.

But the World owes the humanity answers to the Origins of the pandemic that tore their lives apart. Is it something too much to ask for the psychological trauma and personal losses suffered?

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Time to unravel Covid Origins mystery Part-1

Someone rightly pointed that the timeline henceforth depicting BC and AC would now be recalled as Before Corona and After Corona. Rightly so, given the scale of devastation, death, despair, gloom and misery Corona virus pandemic, World will be never the same again. More than 18 months to the pandemic, in this era of fourth generation of industrial revolution, people are still awaiting answers to the origins of the Corona Virus that literally shook the ground beneath their feet. The pandemic has thus far, claimed more than 3.5 million lives, displaced millions of people, caused loss of livelihoods and shattered developing economies.

For all the colossal devastation heaped the humanity deserves to know the origins of pandemic. Instead of a collective, sober and unbiased analysis, misplaced political interests and priorities have scuttled all the effort to investigate the origins.

The timeline of events since the public declaration of the viral outbreak has been replete of missteps, abdication, complicity and a reclusive approach. First, the World Health Organisation, the international body which leads the global responses to health calamity shocked the World with its complacency. As the casualty figures began to mount and the scale of infection spread manifold, the scientific community tasked with job of investigating the outbreak with an open-mind delivered a judgement on the virus on Feb 18^th, 2020 ahead of WHO’s declaration of COVID-19 as pandemic on March 11^th 2020.

Scientists support natural Origins of Covid-19

Foreclosing any debate to alternative theories pertaining to Covid-19, a group of 27 scientists in their letter to the Lancet, titled, “Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19” stated, “the rapid, open and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn all the conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 doesn’t have a natural origin”¹.  Ironically, by dismissing all the alternate voices as rumours and misinformation in one fell swoop, the group of public health scientists have blockaded any debate on the origins of the pandemic.

Soon this group which suggested a natural origin for Covid-19 hinged on a March 17^th paper in Nature Medicine, “The Proximal Origins of SARS-CoV-2” by Kristian Andersen². From here matters get really interesting as we look a close at the people behind this endorsement and research. Kristian Andersen’s paper has been in dock for being self-contradictory as it first says that “SARS-CoV-2 is not laboratory construct”, but in the discussion, it subtly changes the track stating that this is not manipulated from related SARS-CoV virus.

Indeed, ensnared by his flip-flops Andersen deleted his own tweets. In an interview Dr Fauci, the head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of NIH (National Institute of Health) disclosed that at a teleconference of the scientists on Feb 1^st, just two days after WHO has raised the alert of Corona virus, Andersen first by phone and later by e-mail indicated that the genetic structure of the virus suggested that it was engineered. This view was backed by Australian scientist Edward Holmes, who reportedly said, “all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary biology”³.

The teleconference was attended by NIH Director Francis Collins, Wellcome Trust Director Jeremy Farrar. In fact, a huge tranche of emails of Fauci made public under Freedom for Information Act by NIH shed more light on the details.  Fauci indicated that Farrar was in touch with WHO’s Tedros and was supposed to “give head’s up”. Three days after the conference, Andersen expressed doubts over the engineering of virus and termed all the suggestions pointing to it as “fringe” and “crackpot theories”. Hence forth, scientists strongly argued in favour of natural origins based on the Andersen and Holmes paper and dismissed all alternate voices as “conspiracy theories”.

Given the glaring inconsistencies, staring in face, it is important now to look at the Letter by experts group in the Lancet closely which has set the “narrative”. Setting narratives is common in politics. Science is known to be fair, rigorous and open encouraging debate and diverse thoughts. But the unwillingness of the scientists to admit any alternative perspective on the origins of the virus has set alarm bells ringing.

Grant Details and Scientists involved in Corona Virus Research

Interestingly, the Lancet’s solidarity letter and the Nature publication are spear-headed by scientists who had vested interests in the Corona virus research. The NIH through the NIAID headed by Fauci, awarded $ 3.4 million grant to the project titled – “Understanding the Risk of Bat Corona Emergence” in 2014 and 2015. The grants were assigned to Peter Daszak⁴, the head of the EcoHealth Alliance (EHA) of New York who subcontracted the them to Shi Zhengh Li, the expert Virologist at Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) famous now as “Bat woman”.

Shi teamed with Ralph Baric of University of North Carolina, an ace expert on gain-of-function (GOF) research and created a novel virus with the backbone of SARS-CoV1 and replaced its spike protein with that of a bat in 2015. Around the same time, a moratorium was imposed on GOF research in America following the incidents of lab accidents involving anthrax and H5 N1 bird flu virus.  Subsequently authorities called for a “pause” on GOF research on virus related to Influenza, MERS, SARS.

The moratorium had a clause which permitted the continuation of “such experiments which are urgent and necessary to protect public health or national security”⁵. Since the funds continued to flow uninterruptedly to Shi, the director of NIAID and NIH Francis Collins may have invoked the exemption.

GOF refers to increasing the transmissibility, virulence and immunogenicity of microorganisms through serial passaging. Baric taught Shi a method for engineering bat corona viruses to attack other species. They used human cells grown in culture (for invitro tests) and humanised mice (in vivo experiments) to assess the infectivity. Soon she began constructing the chimeric viruses.

Interestingly, Daszak just before the public disclosure of the corona outbreak informed about the 100 Chimeric SARS viruses engineered in WIV. In an interview on December 19^th, 2019, he even conceded that Corona viruses can be easily manipulated in the lab⁶. He concluded by saying that the spike protein sequences of the chimeric viruses can be used to make vaccines against the viral outbreak.

Daszak had first-hand account of the Corona virus research at WIV. Instead of aiding in mitigation efforts, he chose to defend the research and outrightly expressed solidarity to Chinese scientists even as countries were grappling with virus outbreak.

For over 20 years EHA has been funding the research on Virus which makes them potentially dangerous than what they exist in nature. On the premise that they can get ahead of the nature and be well prepared to handle any natural spill overs through zoonotic transmission, they defended engineering of virus. Hence, any theory substantially firming up the argument of lab leak would be a devastating blow to EHA.

Connecting the Dots

Instead of declaring conflicting interests before advocating the natural origins of Covid-19, Daszak worked behind the scenes. He marshalled expert scientists to condemn all theories suggesting Covid-19 doesn’t have a natural origin as conspiracy theory.

Signatories of The Lancet letter included Daszak and 26 public health experts. Of them, two scientists are from EHA, two associated with Daszak as part of leadership of the Global Virome Project, four collaborators of Ralph Baric, an editor of ProMED which receives operational support from Wellcome group⁷. In all, baring three people who are not in active research most of them as of now have reversed or modified their position.

For the fear of staking their own reputation the bigwigs of science community created a perception that questioning or doubting their natural origins theory of Covid-19 a taboo. Months into Covid outbreak due to politically charged atmosphere in Trump regime, any discussion on the lab-leak theory was construed as racist.

By April 2020, Trump called out China for the “Wuhan Outbreak” and even halted funds to WHO “for failing in its duty”. Coming under intense criticism over pandemic management, Trump cancelled funds to EHA for funding the Corona virus research at WIV. In response to Trump’s decision, the scientists intensely rallied the lab-leak as conspiracy, brought immense pressure on the Trump administration to revoke the decision. 77 Nobel Laureates, 33 scientific societies penned an open letter to Trump to reconsider the decision⁸.

For the fear of being associated the Trump, who first advocated a Wuhan lab leak, scientists refrained from discussing the lab leak theory. Labelling lab-leak as conspiracy theory, media actively churned several videos in support of natural origins. As elections neared discussions any contradictory opinions to natural origins of Covid were deemed blasphemous.

As of now, three hypotheses are in vogue- first, virus has evolved naturally and entered humans through animals; second, virus evolved naturally, but employee in the lab who might have contracted the virus has spilled it to society; third, scientists at lab are manipulating the virus and that it accidentally or intentionally spilled out.

Shortly, after NIH’s revocation of funds to EHA, Daszak in an interview to Nature lamented that NIH’s funding couldn’t be reinstated until seven demands are met. He recounting that EHA was asked to obtain a sample vial of SARS-CoV-2 from WIV for genome analysis and to arrange an inspection of WIV for federal officials. Terming NIH’s conditions as heinous and that his research was caught in cross-hairs. He stubbornly ruled out any other possibility and construed any dissenting voice as conspiracy theory⁹. Shi Zhengli voiced similar concerns and called NIH’s conditions as outrageous. Since 2013, EHA is reported to have received $39 million and as of now the amount that ended up in Wuhan is not clear. Additionally, EHA received $123 million between 2017 and 2020 from the government with Department of Defense (DoD) being one of the biggest funders¹⁰.

Being an election year, Covid has become a political agenda. Unfortunately, scientific temper was abjectly surrendered at the political altar. While domestic politics of America inflicted a fatal blow to the unflinching scientific efforts to gain greater clarity, an objective dissection of scientific pursuits to unravel the truth laid out bare the menacing perfidy of scientists and academic journals.

Indeed, the left-leaning mainstream media, lent credence to theory of natural origins of Corona virus. Social media censored and ruthlessly pulled down any references to lab-leak. Newspapers too followed similar suit for over one year. The political polarisation cast a huge shadow on the scientific discussions. The “deep state” which drives the narratives actually made it difficult even for the secretary of the State Mike Pompeo to get the real intelligence reports on the Covid origins. However, the tide turned to change the moment President Biden hinted at an alternate hypothesis and ordered an investigation.

Systematic gaslighting of Covid origins

As the pandemic continued to rage, some scientists daringly admitted that the remarkable infectivity rate of the virus points to some manipulation. They haven’t ruled out lab-leak. One of the earliest papers by the Indian scientists who claimed a similarity between the sequences of SARS-2 spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and gag protein was forced to retract¹¹. Similarly, scientists who alluded to genetic manipulation of the virus were either rejected or their reviews were inadvertently delayed.

Social media was abounded with several such stories and harrowing experiences of the scientists who had to wait for an inordinately long time to get a response. On the contrary papers which promoted the Chinese perspective were published in a span of just 9 nine days¹². Interestingly, this trend reversed after the political dispensation began to embrace and give a chance to the “lab-leak” hypothesis.

At the centre of this entire scandalous approach have been the science journals. By scuttling the debate, shutting the alternate voices and stalling an open discussion the elixir of science, the journals have invariably demonstrated their comprised credentials. In lieu of their inextricable political leanings, outright rejection of the lab-leak hypothesis by science journals raised concerns about the erosion of genuine scientific temper. Clearly, science should have been delineated from politics to have an unbiased, rational and objective investigation.

The Lancet, considered a gold standard of medical journalism, gearing up to celebrate its 200^th anniversary emerged as the centre of the Covid origins scandal. By denying platform to dissenting voices, it has formidably upheld the views that are favourable to China. Mirroring its shifting priorities and political allegiances, The Lancet expressed serious concerns over the use of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) manufactured in India for Covid treatment forcing the WHO to suspend its usage. Now latest studies suggest that HCQ reduced Covid mortality.

Large-scale clinical trials in Singapore reported of the effectiveness of HCQ in reducing Covid spread¹³. India has been at the receiving end of The Lancet’s implicit bias, which became evident when its editorial lashed out at New Delhi for abrogation of Article 370 and castigated the Modi government of Covid handling. Clearly, both the issues, the internal affairs of India are beyond the realm of a medical journal. But have an undeclared China connect to them.

The Lancet’s connections with China are so inextricable that it picked up Peter Daszak, director of EHA to be part of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission 12-member taskforce constituted to investigate the origins of the SARS-CoV-2. Along the expected lines, the team assessed a zoonotic spill over from an intermediate host as “likely to very likely” and a laboratory incident as “extremely unlikely”¹⁴

It is interesting to note that The Lancet is part of the Rockefeller foundation funded “Planetary Health Alliance” which includes EHA, Wellcome Trust, Harvard T. H Chan School of Public Health, Project Drawdown and Stockholm Institute¹⁵. In short, the journal is hand-in-glove with the agency that has funded the Corona research and by consequence shields China from any criticism.

In January, the editor of The Lancet rejected letter of The Paris group, a group of 14 experts that called for an open investigation on the origins of the Covid-19. In May 2020, in defence of China, Horton in an interview to CCTV said, “it wasn’t scientific” and “not helpful” to seek the details of the patient zero and such efforts could be “highly stigmatizing” and “discriminatory”. It is very important to understand the origin of this virus and to study those origins scientifically and not allow such conspiracy theories to contaminate our thinking” but these would only “end risk destabilising our response to the virus”¹⁶.

In Guardian Horton wrote, “but to blame China of the pandemic is to rewrite history of Covid-19 and to marginalise the failings of the Western nations”¹⁷. The job of science is to chase the truth and make inferences based on the data and verifiable evidence. Horton’s stance and eventual free pass prompted Daszak to sneer at MI6 Head Sir Richard Dearlove for suggesting that covid escaped from the lab.

Journals Nature and Science also refused to carry critical articles of dissenting scientists. Nature indeed, published paper submitted by Shi and two others on the same day of submission. This paper didn’t cite the virus RaTG13 that caused the death of three miners in the Yunnan caves to the SARS-CoV-2. The absence of the critical missing link created a confusion. Despite several requests, Nature published the addendum only after 10 months in November. Nature also published a series of papers which created a false trail of the Pangolin present in the Wuhan wet market as intermediary in infection. But when a scientist pointed that all the four papers used samples from same batch of pangolins, Nature rejected the submission.

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Despite divergent views G7 adopts an aggressive posture against China

 The 47^th G7 summit meeting held at Cornwall in UK from June 11-13^th after two years exuded new energy. With renewed focus on international cooperation, the members in principle agreed on five big agenda items. Being the first major get-together of the World leaders since the world was hit by Wuhan virus, the major talking point has been investigations into the origins of the pandemic.

Themed, “Built Back Better”, G7 presidency, UK outlined four priority areas- leading global recovery from corona virus and strengthening resilience against future pandemics; championing free and fair trade; climate change and preserving earth’s biodiversity and championing shared values and open societies.

The above-mentioned priorities laid the framework for a multilateral cooperation. Interestingly, baring the climate change proposition, the underlining common factor has been an aggressive China. As an originator of the pandemic, China holds crucial answers to pandemic related investigations. Similarly, Beijing’s mercantilism and predatory trade practices have marooned several small countries in debt traps and its authoritarian and opaque style of functioning is posing threat to shared values.

After the subtle messaging at Quad Leaders meet and instituting investigation into Wuhan virus origin, in continuum with predecessor Trump, President Biden, called for collective countering of aggressive China. Invoking the guiding principles of G-7 of commitment to multilateralism, through a collective and consultative approach countries agreed on aspects which are the enduring ideals of free, open societies and democracies and the very principles which authoritarian China infringes.

Though an absolute unanimity between the G7 nations has been absent given their deep financial linkages with China, members affirmed their support to the final draft. Reiterating support to the global fight against pandemic, G7 pledged 1 billion vaccine doses to poorer nations. The support which is critiqued as too little too late by many activists, certainly made up for good optics of rich countries towards the developing world.

Announcement of 1 billion vaccine doses which included 500 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna and 100 million doses each by the UK and Canada grabbed international attention. Interestingly, the US doses will be purchased from the second tranche of $2billion pledged as assistance and routed to poor countries through COVAX¹.  Devoid of the vaccine infrastructure to administer doses even as World Bank has extended credit to the tune of $12 billion, loomed by concerns of increasing debt profile, critics argued that vaccine inequality is bound widen.

Seeking transparency and accountability, G7 called for expert-led investigation into origins of Wuhan virus pandemic. G7 joint statement pledged to support establishment of international pathogen surveillance network, a global pandemic radar; strengthen frameworks in terms of increasing global warning capacities, improve early warning systems and shorten the cycle of development of effective treatment, vaccines and tests from 300 to 100 days to prevent future pandemics².

Calling the bluff of China’s “non-market policies and practices”, G7 reiterated the responsibility of “large economies in upholding the rules-based international system and international law”. In the same breath, G7 expressed concerns over the human rights practices of China. Terming Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs as “genocide” US and EU imposed sanctions on the CCP officials. China responded with retaliatory sanctions. Miffed by Chinese actions, EU parliament refused to debate and vote on the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CIA) and led to temporary freeze of its ratification.

Taking serious objection to forced labour and shrinking human rights, G7 affirmed, “we will promote our values, including by calling on China to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms, in relation to Xinjiang and those rights, freedoms and high degree of autonomy for Hongkong enshrined in the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law”.

Indo-Pacific has emerged as a region of major geopolitical contestations. Not be left behind, G7 countries- France, Germany, UK, (EU) recently announced their respective policies for the region. Reiterating importance of maintaining free and open Indo-Pacific based on rule of law, G7 took cognizance of growing instability across Taiwan Strait and indicated that “(G7) encourages the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. We remain seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas and strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo and increase tensions”. With this statement, G7 has seemingly overstepped on China’s so-called red line disputing the “One China policy”.

Ramping up the plans to counter China, the G7 led by the US announced a $40 Trillion Build Back Better World (B3W) infrastructure partnerships as an alternative to BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Without naming China, stating that Wuhan virus pandemic has exacerbated infrastructure needs of low and middle-income countries, G7 declared its development vision which read thus- “we believe that infrastructure development, implementation and maintenance- carried out in a transparent and financially, environmentally, and socially sustainable manner-will lead to beneficial outcomes for recipient countries and communities”.

 Alongside, G7 appealed Russia “to stop its destabilizing behaviour, malign activities, including its interference in other countries democratic systems and to fulfil its international human rights obligations and commitments”.

By implication, G7 affirmed support to the Normandy process and implementation of Minsk Agreements in support of Ukraine and expressed concerns over heavy handedness of Belarusian authorities. G7 called for denuclearization of DPRK, condemned Myanmar coup, appealed for reduction of violence in Afghanistan, pledged to never allow Iran develop a nuclear weapon and welcomed the discussion to facilitate return of the US and Iran to JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Also, in lieu of upcoming COP-26 convention, G7 renewed commitment to Paris Agreement and noted the need for making relevant changes in energy, transport, industrial & innovation, agriculture, forestry and land use sectors to meet net-zero commitments.

In line with the traditional grandstanding, G7, countries reiterated their commitment towards embracing values and promoting equality, especially gender equality, supporting girl child education, protecting the planet, reinvigorating economies, securing future prosperity, value driven digital ecosystem, fostering innovation, employing new technology for tackling global challenges, space and cyber cooperation.

G7, a club of rich democratic countries comprising of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, United Kingdom and United States extended invitation to India, Australia, South Korea and South Africa as Guest countries for the Summit. Prime Minister Modi participated in two outreach sessions- Build Back Stronger Health where he appreciated the help of G7 countries during the pandemic and sought support for the TRIPS waiver proposal at WTO initiated with South Africa. As a lead speaker in the session- “Build Back Together-Open Societies and Economies” and “Building Back Greener Climate and Nature” recalled democracy and freedom as part of India’s civilizational ethos and expressed shared concerns of the vulnerability of Open Societies to disinformation and cyberattacks. India along with other outreach countries and G7 members signed a Joint Statement on “Open Societies”³.

Prime Minister Modi in one of the outreach sessions gave “One Earth-One Health” mantra and called for a whole society approach. He advocated for “next phase studies (WHO-convened) to reach “robust conclusions” hinting at a China and emphasized on the special responsibility of the democratic and open societies to prevent future pandemic⁴.

Modi first attended the G-7 Biarritz summit at France as Good Will Partner in 2019. In 2020, President Trump extended invite to the summit proposed to be held at Camp Davis. But it was cancelled due to Wuhan virus. Due to surging Wuhan virus second wave, Modi couldn’t physically attend the Cornwall G7 summit.

Ahead of his Europe trip, Biden wrote, “this trip is about realizing America’s renewed commitment to our allies and partners, and demonstrating the capacity of democracies to both meet the challenges and deter the threats of this new age”⁵. In line with the stated objective, by reiterating America’s unflinching support to democratic values, Biden made a rallying call to like-minded nations. G7 Summit brought together major democratic countries. Concluding the outreach sessions, Prime Minister Boris Johnson termed the Cornwall G7 as Democracies-11 including the four guest countries seeding the idea of a democratic axis.

Aside the shared values of democracy, liberty and equality, the D-11 is an agglomeration of disparate nations with conflicting economic, trading, developmental interests and objectives. Majority of them have strong economic ties with China, making economic isolation of Dragon difficult. Determined to go for the jugular, notwithstanding the weak links, President Biden used the G7 to build a strong counter-force against China.

Pandemic has changed the World view of China. Beijing’s complicity in pandemic outbreak, weaponization of covid supplies, wolf-warrior diplomacy, aggressive expansionism in South China Sea, incursions across Cross Straits, East China Sea, stand-off at LAC under the pandemic cover, trade sanctions in response to call for independent investigation into pandemic origins and suppression of freedom in Hongkong, Xinjiang have blown off the mask of China’s peaceful rise. Nations are wary of Chinese aggression and hostility. China’s popularity across the World slumped to its lowest now.

Countering China and its audacity to institute an opaque governance system has become a priority. Posturing of a united front by democracies is thus an attempt to build a post-pandemic international order which is rules-based and fair.

Even as the impact of G7 summit is widely debated, India reposed interest in B3W which is congruent with its vision. Since its launch, India has strongly objected to BRI that passed through the legitimate territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and has been instrumental in Beijing’s deep entrenchment in its neighbourhood.

In response to G7’s unified position, China cautioned that “days when small groups of countries decided the fate of the World were long gone”⁶. The Chinese embassy in London accused G7 of “lies, rumours and baseless accusations” and added, “G7 takes advantage of Xinjiang-related issues to engage in political manipulation and interfere in China’s internal affairs which we firmly oppose”⁷. A miffed China made largest numbers of incursions into Taiwanese airspace on Tuesday. Reportedly 28 Chinese aircrafts entered Taiwan’s ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) asserting reunification under “One Country, two systems”⁸.

Swiping the G7 and its allies, a cartoon, “the Last G7” a parody of Leonardo Da vinci’s “The Last Supper” published by artist ‘Bantonglaoatang’ on Weibo became viral. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mouth piece republished it⁹.

Image credit: The Global Times

Countries depicted from L to R: Germany, Australia, Japan, Italy, USA, Britain, Canada, France and India

Frogs below the table are Taiwan and Hongkong.

Picture is worth thousand words, with its official endorsement Beijing revealed its narrow-mindedness and prejudice.

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