Months into power, while the
Biden administration is clamouring to revive engagements with trans-Atlantic
and Indo-Pacific partners, amid ugly diplomatic sparing between American and
Chinese diplomats at Anchorage, Philippines Foreign Minister raised concerns of
Chinese incursions. Instructively, the silver lining of Biden administration’s
interactions with various strategic partners has been a promise of countering
Chinese assertiveness.
On March 21st,
Philippines Defence Minister demanding the withdrawal of blue-hulled Chinese
vessels, said, “we call on the Chinese to stop this incursion and immediately
recall these boats violating our maritime rights and encroaching into our
sovereign territory”. The statement was
in response to the Philippines Coast Guard reports of about 220 Chinese vessels
marooning the Whitsun Reef since March 7th1.
Expectedly, Chinese remained
defiant and defended that Chinese vessels were sheltering against the inclement
weather. Chinese Embassy in Manila warned against, “any speculation in such
helps nothing but causes unnecessary irritation” and “hoped that the situation
could be handled in an objective and rational manner”2.
Whitsun Reef is boom-rang shaped
obscure shallow reef in South China Sea (SCS) claimed by Philippines as Julian
Felipe Reef and Vietnam as Da Ba Dau. China calls it Niu’e Jiao or Oxbrow Reef.
Strategically located along the busy shipping lanes, ideally suited as
operational and monitoring base, China and Vietnam have been making claims on
this reef for some time. Vietnam is indeed operating near this reef at the Sin
Cowe Island. Claims aside, the shallow reef is 175 nautical miles away from
Philippines Western Province Palawan and falls well within the range of
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Philippines.
Despite the Corona pandemic,
around the same period last year, Chinese vessels traversed these regions in
SCS and AMTI (Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative) tracked their movements.
Around 30 Chinese Maritime Militia ships were spotted in this region which left
the region shortly3. This year, in a brazen display of
assertiveness and power, China has swarmed the region with hundreds of vessels.
On March23rd Philippines Air Force reported presence of 183 CMM vessels.
The timing of these incursions
has accentuated burgeoning animosity towards the Middle Kingdom which has
opened several fronts since last year. With a partial disengagement of troops
across the LAC, while Beijing has partially nullified the tactical advantage of
India still several areas in Eastern Ladakh region are yet to be vacated by the
Chinese troops. Beijing has intensified its ante against Taiwan, incursed into
Japanese waters record number of times and also rolled out a new legislation
enabling Coastal Guards to fire at any foreign vessel entering its perceived
territorial region. With China laying claims to over 80% of SCS under the Nine
Dash Line which is thoroughly contested, the legislation has invariably
escalated the tensions.
Struggling to garner the trust of
SCS stakeholders, in response to Philippines concerns, US declared, “We stand
with the Philippines, our oldest treaty ally in Asia”. But unfortunately,
America’s statement failed short of reposing confidence in Manila as the Biden administrations
newly released interim National Security Strategic Guidance4
failed to mention Philippines as a strategic ally, unlike the previous regimes.
This prevarication is attributed
to President Duterte’s dubious Chinese foreign policy, who upon ascension to
power in 2016 shelfed the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s verdict and
refrained from consolidating Manila’s maritime assertiveness.
Unlike former President Aquino
III who initiated an international arbitration case against China under UNCLOS
(United Nations Convention on the Law of Seas) and deepened security
cooperation with US in response stand-off with China and occupation of Manila’s
Scarborough Shoal in 2012, Duterte warmed up to China. Adopted a meek and
humble approach, acquiesced to China, welcomed Beijing’s investments.
Emboldened by Duterte’s approach,
China not only militarised the rapidly reclaimed territorial features in the
SCS but also carved out two municipal districts- Xinsha and Nansha from the newly
developed islands Paracels and Spartly groups as separate administrative units5.
Beijing began deploying sophisticated military hardware to these newly
reclaimed regions and increased reliance on on the strategy of grey zone
tactics to bolster its claims.
In 2019, China sunk a Philippines
fishing boat and last year, as a vast swarm of ships surrounded the Thitu Island
claimed by Philippines last year. The ship was allegedly rammed and sunk by
Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) in the Reed Bank area. But Duterte chose to
dismiss this as minor event. On the contrary, he notified US administration of
the termination of 22-year old, the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement even as US
expressed its commitment to the relationship5. Duterte’s
overt kow-towing has been a strategic victory for China.
Though Duterte rescinded his
decision, his rhetoric pertaining to lack of strategic payments from America and
absence of offer of COVID vaccines has weakened the alliance. China aspired to
eventually grab this strategic opportunity. But its overzealous approach and
incremental adventurism has exposed its diabolical expansionist strategy.
China’s unrelenting incursions has
worsened Manila’s maritime concerns. The continuing presence of an armada of
Chinese maritime vessels operating under the garb of fishing vessels is now
eliciting strong response from Duterte’s Cabinet.
Philippines Foreign Minister
registered a formal protest, Defence Minister demanded withdrawal of the
vessels. Undersecretary Analiza Rebuelta Teh announced Manila’s plans to seek
compensation for destroying the marine resources in EEZ from China as part of
2016 Hague ruling. The documentation is likely to include- ecological damage
caused by harmful harvesting of endangered species, island building activities,
construction of installations and artificial islands at Mischief Reef without
the approval of the Philippines7.
While the matters stay thus, the
most important facet of this entire episode is the strategic deployment of CMM
and their intimidatory tactics. Till now, US refused to consider CMM as a
formidable force. Pegged them at paltry 848, US grossly
underestimated Chinese forces operating in the Seas. Now the Philippines
Airforce declared the presence of 183 CMM “blue hulls” in their EEZ.
Chinese observers have been
warning of CMM, which operates along with the regular force-PLAN and Coast
Guards. Known as People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), they play a vital
role in Gray Zone Pressure tactics.
During the early days of
communist regime, commercial vessels were used to augment regular naval units.
The Naval existed as “Brown Water” force was dedicated to protection of inland
waterways and coastal areas. CMM owes its origins to Chinese fishing industry,
the largest in the World. Initially when the military orientation was mostly
continental, the regime never bothered about bolstering maritime resources.
After the end of the Cold War,
China increased its focus on maritime strategy by co-opting the terms like
First Chain of Islands, Nine Dash lines. While its Naval force was too thin to
spread across the vast oceanic regions, CMM comprising the fishing boats of
vast fishing fleet, started organising into company sized elements in 1985 for
the first time at Sansa City. Basic training was organised by city level
People’s Armed forces Department.
By 2010 the training was
coordinated with Chinese Maritime Law Enforcement Agencies like Chinese Coast
Guard and Fisheries Law Enforcement Command. They were soon part of
reconnaissance missions, and formed the advanced guard of island construction
of China in SCS.
The Maritime Militia also trains
for some independent missions, including anti-air missile defense, light
weapons use and sabotage operations. Reconnaissance and surveillance are
strongly emphasized, to make up for potential gaps in China’s intelligence,
surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) coverage9. CMM essentially
gathers information about foreign vessels, harass them, offer logistic support
and aid in reclamation activities.
These fishing vessels are
equipped with Beidou Communication System. They are now modernised to become
part of the NCW (Network Centric Warfare) which relies on C4I (Command,
Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence). PLA is blending its own
NCW tactics with those learned from Soviet Union and the US Doctrine (Desert
Storm, Iraq and Afghanistan).
As indicted by Andrew Ericksson
and Micheal Chase in their book- “The Chinese Navy: Expanding capabilities,
Evolving Roles” the long and short goal of the regime in cultivating CMM is to
develop a networked fleet to mount low cost but area denial mission in SCS and
ECS.
China’s maritime strategy indeed
has borrowed the ancient Athenians “Swarm Techniques” that trounced Persians.
This method in the recent times is believed to have been successfully adopted
by Nazis in the World War II. The tactics essentially involves use of small,
fast, stealthy and lightly manned interconnected (networked) vessels operating
in tandem from in different directions and attack the enemy. Clearly, CMM
appears to have emulated all these principles and operating in Swarms to
operate in SCS. Strategists Arquilla and Ronfeldt contend that CMM aptly fits
the definition and functioning of Swarm.
With a precedent of using similar
Swarm land techniques against UN forces on land in Korean War, analysts now
believe “Naval Swarm Tactics” have been at the root of the Chinese incremental
expansionism in the SCS.
Since 2014, the encounters
between China’s so called fishing fleet and the foreign navies in the EEZ and
Nine Dash Line have increased several folds with reports of Chinese fleets
sinking vessels of the claimants-Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan,
Malaysia. Ever since, media is replete of incidents of hostile actions of
Chinese fishing vessels. These events weren’t restricted to SCS alone even Latin
American countries reported sighting these fleets.
As of now, Philippines has beefed
up naval presence in SCS to conduct sovereignty patrols and sending fighter
aircrafts over SCS. However, the Chinese embassy still maintains that fishing
vessels are taking refuge at Whitsun Reefs and that there were no militia on
board 10.
China’s belligerence and the
unabated salami slicing have roots in its diligent military strategies. It is
time to unravel and understand the implications of these stealthily honed
approaches to stem and counter China’s nefarious tactics. Clearly through collectivization,
modernisation and use of sophisticated technology China has evolved a robust
low-cost force to defend and realise its territorial aspirations. Inexorably
this is a force to reckon with. Hence it is incumbent on the stakeholders of
the region to constantly monitor the activities of Chinese sinister fishing
boats which are part of CMM and work together to safeguard their mutual
interests.
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